I looked up what was legal in Extended now and saw they've done away with not only Mirrodin in the rotation but they'd gone all the way up to Shards block.
And with the introduction of RTR, Shards has rotated.
So it appears that Extended is now an extra two blocks and core sets on top of standard. Cool! And hey, the banlist is very small too.
This is a smaller format that presently has Zendikar's fetchlands AND Manlands, Scarlands, Innistrad and M11/M12 buddy lands AND now shocklands from RTR.
This means very solid manabases.
Archetypes?
Vampires
Bloodghast, Nocturnus, Gatekeeper of Malakir, Malakir Bloodwitch join with the Innistrad vampires.
Valakut Wolfrun
Yikes. Then again Valakut and Wolfrun would rather not have their own decks cluttered by the other land. Seems both would be a deck. Wow, two competitive RG decks in the same format?
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
Extended still suffers from the same problem that made it a less than enthralling format before it got kicked off of the supported list - its just a rehash of former Standard decks we've already gotten bored of and moved on from.
Realistically, how "different" a format feels can be strongly correlated to the % of overlapping "playable" cards in their respective pools. Assuming that playable cards are relatively evenly distributed between sets and that the number of cards released per year is fairly even in the grand scheme of things, simple overlap should be a fairly accurate predictor of how a format feels*.
*Caveat - Banned lists matter a lot. Otherwise Legacy and Vintage would effectively be the same format. We'll assume here that any card banned in an older format is sufficiently strong to justify it being banned in all smaller formats as well.
Assume:
Standard = 2 blocks
Extended = 4 blocks
Old-Extended = 7 blocks
Modern = 10 blocks and increasing
Legacy = 20 blocks and increasing
We find: OverlapFormat
50% = Standard vs. New Standard
50% = Standard vs. Extended
28% = Standard vs. Old Extended
20% = Standard vs. Modern
10% = Standard vs. Legacy
Extended vs. Standard
As can be seen, the block system makes for a relatively continuous and predictable overlap in card pools from Standard to New Standard. Unfortunately, this is also the case with Extended. Whenever a new block rotates, Extended just becomes yesterday's Standard with a card pool too small to necessarily innovate. The current design philosophy of making blocks that synergize within a given standard, but not necessarily with non-adjacent blocks, means that opportunity to find new and interesting interactions is random at best or minimal at worst. This means that Standard will usually be more interesting and dynamic than Extended.
We also see a nearly linear trend in card pool overlap going from more recent formats to older formats with age, with the only exception being Extended. This seems to suggest that Extended is ineffective as a 'tweener' format between Standard and Modern right now. The difference between altering a deck to be played in a New Standard is about the same as making it viable in Extended, so just modify it for the New Standard - its the more popular format anyway.
Extended vs. Modern
40% = Extended vs. Modern
57% = Extended vs. Old Extended
70% = Old Extended vs. Modern
50% = Modern vs. Legacy
As of now, Extended and Modern overlap by 40%. If we acknowledge that mana-bases make for the most upheaval when changing formats, consider that the typical Modern mana-base will be more or less the same as the typical Extended mana-base once Gatecrash comes out. For example, ZEN Fetch into RTR Shock, chased by M10/INN Late Lands are shared mana-bases between the two formats.
Also, if we acknowledge the fact that creatures - the driving force of the game - have been better more recently as opposed to less recently, it disincentives one from playing most of the older cards that are in the 60% of Modern that does NOT overlap with Extended. For example, Modern and Extended UWR Delver would both probably play the same creature base of Delver, Snapcaster Mage, Geist of St. Traft, and Steppe Lynx.
In conclusion, between current Extended and current Modern, given the state of creature power and mana-base effectiveness, there is insufficient reason to consider playing Extended over Modern for any reason other than selfish ones related to being unable to hack it in the metagame. If you want to keep playing a pet standard deck after rotation, just suck it up and port it over new standard or Modern instead.
That being said, give it another 10 years for Modern to expand and evolve and that might not be the case anymore. While 2-block Standard will always be too similar to 4-block Extended to justify having Extended around because of the way they rotate together, the overlap between a rotating 7-block Old Extended and a non-rotating Modern will have diminished** to the point that they could be sufficiently different to justify supporting both. On the other side of that same coin, should Legacy's card availability issues be exacerbated by another decade of increasing scarcity, Modern may just flat out replace it at all but the highest levels of the professional game, considering that they'd overlap by 67% of their card pools by then.
**Caveat - should the number of reprints increase in future sets, this number would skew higher and increase their overlap. 7-block extended would still suffer from non-adjacent block synergy problems, but hopefully the expanded card pool size could make up for it by allowing 'good stuff' decks to have a high enough raw power level to compete.
EDIT: Sorry if this is a bit long winded. I've been thinking about this for a while and this is the first opportunity to unleash my theory upon the world.
My local Card shop plays extended every week on the day me and most of my buddies don't work, so we usually play extended every week.
Some decks that I've been seeing that you haven't listed.
Grixis-Control
dreadbores
jaces
rakdos return
gave titan
wurmcoil
inferno titan
nico bolas
mana leaks etc.
I went 2-2 with it this week, should have been 3-1.
a U/W list won it this week, with another bant list going second that were somewhat similar, both using supreme verdicts and detention spheres.
the U/W was runnigns tamiyos, gideons, an entreat or two, the new jace, cyclonic rifts.
The bant was running thragtusks and resto angels and a couple vensers.
Those were both the decks I lost to as well... :/
Zombies are good. B/R or B/G, my buddy even used to take U/B zombies and did quite well, didn't really lose much with alara rotating. And the land bases make some of these decks nuts.
There was also someone playing a proliferate lux cannon deck (always fun), as well as a Junk reanimator that was pretty nice. Grisly salvages and mulches go a long way. Lotleth troll can add an aggro feel to it when you want to be the beatstick too.
There were also two tempered steels. One splashing red for bonfires. Both of them ended up losing to the U/W that my best friend was piloting.
4 Steam Vents
3 Scalding Tarns
3 Blood Crypts
3 Drowned Catacombs
4 Sulfur Falls
3 Dragonskull Summit
4 Mountains
3 Islands
For SB I'm thinking some sort of combo of
3-4 Duress/Inquisitions
3 Spellskite
2 Slaughter Games (try and hit theirs? lol)
Maybe a couple pyro's and another slagstorm for aggro.
Or something like that.
My Grixis List was
2 Nico Bolas
1 Grave Titan
1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Inferno Titan
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Olivia Voldaren
1 Rakdos Return
1 Tamiyo, The Moon Sage
3 Jace Belaran
4 Mana Leak
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Black Sun Zenith
2 Curse of Deaths Hold
3 Dreadbore
3 Think Twice
3 Snapcaster mage
2 Bonfire of the Damned
1 Into to Roil
I play extended and so do a lot of my friends. What I am only guessing at since no pros have spit out any formal deck would be the top decks.
RDW or R/x
Infect
Vakault/ boundless realms
Wolfrun
Tempered Steel
Vampires (pretty weak though in comparison)
Goblins (actually REALLY good)
3 color controls (grixis/esper/ect)
Elves
Birthing Pod
Delver
Splinter Twin Combo
Miracle Variants
Token Variants
Jund
Reanimator Variants
Turbo Fog (only as a rogue but still possible)
GW lifegain shinanigans
UR counterburn
Eldrazi ramp
I think stoneforge is still banned if not then Stoneblade will troll. Those decks vary in vast degree of how much they actually could or would win bigger tournaments but at least I feel they would get SOME play.
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And with the introduction of RTR, Shards has rotated.
Here's a link to what the legal sets are:
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=judge/resources/sfrextended
So it appears that Extended is now an extra two blocks and core sets on top of standard. Cool! And hey, the banlist is very small too.
This is a smaller format that presently has Zendikar's fetchlands AND Manlands, Scarlands, Innistrad and M11/M12 buddy lands AND now shocklands from RTR.
This means very solid manabases.
Archetypes?
Vampires
Bloodghast, Nocturnus, Gatekeeper of Malakir, Malakir Bloodwitch join with the Innistrad vampires.
Valakut Wolfrun
Yikes. Then again Valakut and Wolfrun would rather not have their own decks cluttered by the other land. Seems both would be a deck. Wow, two competitive RG decks in the same format?
Stax
Thalia, Lodestone Golem and Judge's Familiar?
Birthing Pod
Nuff said
Elves
Deathrite Shaman, Zendikar Elves
Merfolk
Coralhelm Commander and Master of the Pearl Trident together
Splinter Twin Combo
Exarch + Twin is in the format, albeit nowhere near as consistent as in modern.
Red Deck Wins
Has Lightning Bolt, Koth, Goblin Guide and the new Ash Zealot.
Infect
Has rancor and a strong BG support
This now looks like a format that warrants some support.
"OH GOD MY BRAIN IS EXPLOADING AT HOW BAD THE ART IS ON MY OWN CARD"
-A friend's first impression of Ancestral Recall
10/10, I tapped.
*Caveat - Banned lists matter a lot. Otherwise Legacy and Vintage would effectively be the same format. We'll assume here that any card banned in an older format is sufficiently strong to justify it being banned in all smaller formats as well.
Assume:
Standard = 2 blocks
Extended = 4 blocks
Old-Extended = 7 blocks
Modern = 10 blocks and increasing
Legacy = 20 blocks and increasing
We find:
Overlap Format
50% = Standard vs. New Standard
50% = Standard vs. Extended
28% = Standard vs. Old Extended
20% = Standard vs. Modern
10% = Standard vs. Legacy
Extended vs. Standard
As can be seen, the block system makes for a relatively continuous and predictable overlap in card pools from Standard to New Standard. Unfortunately, this is also the case with Extended. Whenever a new block rotates, Extended just becomes yesterday's Standard with a card pool too small to necessarily innovate. The current design philosophy of making blocks that synergize within a given standard, but not necessarily with non-adjacent blocks, means that opportunity to find new and interesting interactions is random at best or minimal at worst. This means that Standard will usually be more interesting and dynamic than Extended.
We also see a nearly linear trend in card pool overlap going from more recent formats to older formats with age, with the only exception being Extended. This seems to suggest that Extended is ineffective as a 'tweener' format between Standard and Modern right now. The difference between altering a deck to be played in a New Standard is about the same as making it viable in Extended, so just modify it for the New Standard - its the more popular format anyway.
Extended vs. Modern
40% = Extended vs. Modern
57% = Extended vs. Old Extended
70% = Old Extended vs. Modern
50% = Modern vs. Legacy
As of now, Extended and Modern overlap by 40%. If we acknowledge that mana-bases make for the most upheaval when changing formats, consider that the typical Modern mana-base will be more or less the same as the typical Extended mana-base once Gatecrash comes out. For example, ZEN Fetch into RTR Shock, chased by M10/INN Late Lands are shared mana-bases between the two formats.
Also, if we acknowledge the fact that creatures - the driving force of the game - have been better more recently as opposed to less recently, it disincentives one from playing most of the older cards that are in the 60% of Modern that does NOT overlap with Extended. For example, Modern and Extended UWR Delver would both probably play the same creature base of Delver, Snapcaster Mage, Geist of St. Traft, and Steppe Lynx.
In conclusion, between current Extended and current Modern, given the state of creature power and mana-base effectiveness, there is insufficient reason to consider playing Extended over Modern for any reason other than selfish ones related to being unable to hack it in the metagame. If you want to keep playing a pet standard deck after rotation, just suck it up and port it over new standard or Modern instead.
That being said, give it another 10 years for Modern to expand and evolve and that might not be the case anymore. While 2-block Standard will always be too similar to 4-block Extended to justify having Extended around because of the way they rotate together, the overlap between a rotating 7-block Old Extended and a non-rotating Modern will have diminished** to the point that they could be sufficiently different to justify supporting both. On the other side of that same coin, should Legacy's card availability issues be exacerbated by another decade of increasing scarcity, Modern may just flat out replace it at all but the highest levels of the professional game, considering that they'd overlap by 67% of their card pools by then.
**Caveat - should the number of reprints increase in future sets, this number would skew higher and increase their overlap. 7-block extended would still suffer from non-adjacent block synergy problems, but hopefully the expanded card pool size could make up for it by allowing 'good stuff' decks to have a high enough raw power level to compete.
EDIT: Sorry if this is a bit long winded. I've been thinking about this for a while and this is the first opportunity to unleash my theory upon the world.
Speculate less. Test more.
Some decks that I've been seeing that you haven't listed.
Grixis-Control
dreadbores
jaces
rakdos return
gave titan
wurmcoil
inferno titan
nico bolas
mana leaks etc.
I went 2-2 with it this week, should have been 3-1.
a U/W list won it this week, with another bant list going second that were somewhat similar, both using supreme verdicts and detention spheres.
the U/W was runnigns tamiyos, gideons, an entreat or two, the new jace, cyclonic rifts.
The bant was running thragtusks and resto angels and a couple vensers.
Those were both the decks I lost to as well... :/
Zombies are good. B/R or B/G, my buddy even used to take U/B zombies and did quite well, didn't really lose much with alara rotating. And the land bases make some of these decks nuts.
There was also someone playing a proliferate lux cannon deck (always fun), as well as a Junk reanimator that was pretty nice. Grisly salvages and mulches go a long way. Lotleth troll can add an aggro feel to it when you want to be the beatstick too.
There were also two tempered steels. One splashing red for bonfires. Both of them ended up losing to the U/W that my best friend was piloting.
2 Snapcaster Mage
4 Deceiver Exarchs
1 Rakdos Return
4 Faithless Lootings
3 Think Twice
2 Forbidden Alchemy
2 Mana Leak
1 Syncopate
3 Izzet Charms
1 Into the Roil
1 Ultimate Price
2 Slagstorm
2 Gitaxian Probe
4 Splinter Twin
4 Steam Vents
3 Scalding Tarns
3 Blood Crypts
3 Drowned Catacombs
4 Sulfur Falls
3 Dragonskull Summit
4 Mountains
3 Islands
For SB I'm thinking some sort of combo of
3-4 Duress/Inquisitions
3 Spellskite
2 Slaughter Games (try and hit theirs? lol)
Maybe a couple pyro's and another slagstorm for aggro.
Or something like that.
My Grixis List was
2 Nico Bolas
1 Grave Titan
1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Inferno Titan
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Olivia Voldaren
1 Rakdos Return
1 Tamiyo, The Moon Sage
3 Jace Belaran
4 Mana Leak
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Black Sun Zenith
2 Curse of Deaths Hold
3 Dreadbore
3 Think Twice
3 Snapcaster mage
2 Bonfire of the Damned
1 Into to Roil
3 Blood crypt
3 Steam Vents
3 Scalding Tarns
4 Sulfur Falls
2 Creeping Tar Pits
3 Drowned Catacombs
1 Dragonskull Summit
1 Swamp
2 Mountains
3 Islands
SB:
2 Slaughter Games
1 Into the Roil
1 Flashfreeze
1 Tamiyo
1 Wurmcoil
3 Counterflux
2 Despise
2 Sever the Bloodline
1 Nihil S.B.
I suck at sideboards. But any recommendations for either, or any other lists you think could do well would be appreciated!
RDW or R/x
Infect
Vakault/ boundless realms
Wolfrun
Tempered Steel
Vampires (pretty weak though in comparison)
Goblins (actually REALLY good)
3 color controls (grixis/esper/ect)
Elves
Birthing Pod
Delver
Splinter Twin Combo
Miracle Variants
Token Variants
Jund
Reanimator Variants
Turbo Fog (only as a rogue but still possible)
GW lifegain shinanigans
UR counterburn
Eldrazi ramp
I think stoneforge is still banned if not then Stoneblade will troll. Those decks vary in vast degree of how much they actually could or would win bigger tournaments but at least I feel they would get SOME play.