notgreat has the option to use bile blight on turn 3 before he starts laying Rhinos, or on turn 6 after a couple of rhinos. If he avoids the early blight for maximum token kill, he doesn't make it past 5th turn. If he shoots on his 3rd turn, I recover fast enough to end it in my favor. There are random lines of play choices that would create a myriad of breakdowns, but nothing that should change the outcome.
Maybe I'm missing something, but for your assessment of early blight with you on the play, you seem to switch to me on the play after T3. Also, on T8, instead of playing the 5th rhino I can swing and burn your face for lethal since the rhinos have trample.
I'll post a more thorough assessment of all my questionable matchups later today hopefully.
Yeah, Rhinos OP. Trample, drain, and an efficient body.
I'm pretty sure I'm 6-0 against 11 on further review. Since Sidisi's Faithful only bounces and Ruthless Ripper relies on me attacking to get the kill, I can build up a force of at least 4 rhinos (draining 12) before the discard locks me by discarding Bile Blight, then attacks and Crater's Claws easily wins.
I don't have complete listings, but for most of them I looked it over and my original logic looks sound. I'll try get out a full listing for 10 and 12 to resolve the disputes later today.
I've run it a couple of ways. It gets confusing and drawn out with tons of lines of play when breaking it down: do I swing early, does he swing or hold, do I hold sustenance mana to make him hold dissipate mana, etc. In the end, I outgrow him fast enough early on that I can take some hits, then block and swing back. Make tokens to block if he swings again, then finish him. If he swings, he's open for me to swing through quickly, if he doesn't, I just outgrow to get most of my guys through.
His best play is on my draw, with him swinging to try and race the overrun:
(Him not swinging just means I have more life and grow an extra turn for the mass overrun)
Death turn 7 whether he swings or not, and whether he dissipates or not.
02v09 Surfy8
6-0
By the time he can swing and pump, I can cast his turn & double block to get rid of them. I sacrifice/hold the first 6 guys I get this way, and then easily outrace the 8/9th turn kill - On turn 7, even having lost 6 guys, I Sustenance for 14, easily winning.
02v12 nerdyjoe
3-3
nerdyjoe's breakdown has me casting sustenance early, which I don't do. I'd rather have the 3 tokens and ability to use it later if possible. He also has a mentor swinging turn 5 unblocked. I'll X=5 in response and sacrifice 1 token to stop the damage, which means a swing is pointless.
My play, I should win by a turn.
On my draw, I lose.
F1. Mystic
N1.
F2. X=2
N2.
F3. Swing2 N18.
N3. Hold. (Mentor->Sustenance)
EOT X=3 T5
F4. Swing5 N13.
N4. Mentor. (Swan Song Mana)
EOT X=4 T9
F5. Swing 9.
Block 1. T8. N5
N6. ..
(Swing could be 12)
But then I make X=5 tokens and block
If he doesn't swing, he just blocks that token when I do
So nothing gained or lost for a swing.
If he Songs, then take it, Sustenance next turn = death
EOT X=6. T14
F6. Swing14.
Strike*5
Block 6 = Take 8 = Dead
Swan Song himself = Sustenance = Dead
His only option to stop this is to use Swan Song to stop a token spell.
But if he does this, I'm still at T8, and Sustenance kills outright.
I've finished my matchups.
I agree that I lose to notgreat - if I had remembered trample, I wouldn't have even questioned it.
I disagree with the initial Counterspell people, nerdyjoe, and a couple others - but I've broken down turn by turn for each.
@Feyd_Ruin: You still have yourself listed as 6-0 against my deck on your scoreline.
I realized my mistake vs 10: I was forgetting about how powerful Prophet of Kruphix was. This gives you enough time to deal 20 to me before my rhinos begin resolving.
vs. 10, W's play+card: (to represent both scenarios at once)
Turns 1-5 are all lands since neither player can afford to play their threat and let their shields down. Then I begin playing Rhinos and WhammeWhamme counters them. Turn 7 I've drawn 6 rhinos, played 1 (countered). This gives WhammeWhamme the opportunity to play Prophet with two counterspells up- one for removal, one for my next rhino. I waste the Bile Blight, letting it be countered, and on my turn try for a Crater's Claws (it's countered) and then keep trying to play Siege Rhinos. I have 6 rhinos in hand, you have 4 counterspells. You can play your Dragon at instant speed and lock down a rhino I play. It will take me ~4 turns to start having rhinos resolve, and you will have dealt me 24 damage in that time.
I am still confident in my matchup vs. 12. My 2nd removal spell kills his Mentor before it can make enough tokens, unless he casts it really late in which case I have enough rhinos+burn to trample you to death.
Here it is. I'm not 100% about 1v11, 3v11, and 8v11
1 | 0 0 6 0 0 6 0 6 6 0 X 3 | 26
1 - 0:
I'm not 100% sure how my match against madman pans out but i suspect i lose. we both can do 2 damage a turn starting turn 3. i should be able to stop warden doing anything by recasting my exploited sidis faithful. the real wrench in the gears is if he's able to ever get a kheru spellsnatcher down. i think being able to double cast kolaghan's command on turn 6 gets me slightly ahead but i'm very uncertain. this might come down to whose ever on the play.
it's also worth noting, once i have 6 mana, my clock gets faster. i can morph ruthless ripper, reveal command to make madman lose 2 life, then sac it to crackling doom. the threat of warden of the first tree might stop this play ever happening over exploiting the faithful
2 - 0:
i think i lose without harsh sustenance. with harsh sustenance it isn't even close
3 - 6:
herald only ativates at sorcery speed. i bounce your second herald, then, once i'm on 3 mana, i keep mana up on your turn, in case you try outlast. if you do, i kill the herald and make you discard. 2 damage + discard, should mop up your heralds and tokens pretty quickly, then i can finish you off
4 - 0:
counterspell is a strong card. i can beat down for a few turns, but it only takes a few zombies before the game slips out of control
5 - 0:
this match is super confusing but i think you win. it's close though. i think crater's claw might be my undoing. play or draw, you draw 2 siege rhinos before i can start making you discard. your first discard is bile blight, so you get 3 rhinos. if you're on the play, you can play rhinos turn 4, 5, and 6. if i'm on the play, I can make you discard twice on turn 6 (because I never cast my turn 2 command), meaning you only get 2 rhinos in play.
2 rhinos deail 6 damage, and gain you 6 life. swinging with both rhinos into my 0/4 wall, and my 1/1 death touch will deal me 3 damage. this means you only manage to deal 9 to me, and will have to deal 11 with crater's claw, which you can't do until turn 10. on the play, i start i play a ripper, and deal 4 damage with it before you play your first rhino. i then start dealing 2 damage a turn, starting turn 3, and need to do 22 damage. i also do an extra 2 damage on turn 6, when i cast command a second time. on my 10th turn, you're at 4 life.
on the draw it ends up being worse.
6 - 6:
your clock is pretty slow, and all winds does is act as a way to prevent discarding a crater's claw.
7 - 0:
your deck starts a bit slow, but you can just keep commanding in response to my command, netting you a ton of life and damaging me : (
8 - 6:
another super complicated one. i can use discard mode initially to strip dissipate out of your hand. you can stockpile in response, but your hand size has to shrink. once it's down i try chain bouncing tokens to race you hopefully...
9 - 6:
sorry about the deck. sorcery speed win condition loses to repeatable discard, and i can answer your tokens fairly well...
10 - 0:
counterspelled : (
12 3-3:
i think you were playing my deck suboptimally. i'd make a 0/4 on turn 2. i would also probably block diferently. i don't think the out come ends up changing though
02 v 05: 6-0
notgreat has the option to use bile blight on turn 3 before he starts laying Rhinos, or on turn 6 after a couple of rhinos. If he avoids the early blight for maximum token kill, he doesn't make it past 5th turn. If he shoots on his 3rd turn, I recover fast enough to end it in my favor. There are random lines of play choices that would create a myriad of breakdowns, but nothing that should change the outcome.
EDIT: 0-6. Forgot the Rhinos had trample.
Play
1. Mystic
1.
2. X=2
2.
3. X=3, n18
3.
4. x=4, n13
4. Rhino, n16,F17
5. X=2
Harsh Sustenance at Skull (n5,F28)
Swing 9, block 1, dead
Draw:
1
1 Mystic
2
2 X=2
3
3 X=3, Swing n18
4 Rhino n21,F17
4 X=4
Swing 5, block1, N13
5. Rhino2. N16,F14
Swing 4. F10
5 X=2, Sustenance@Skull 11
F21, N5
Swing 8, block, dead
Play
1. Mystic
1.
2. X=2
2.
3. Swing 2. N18
3. ..
Eot X=3
After that, Blight tokens
4. Rhino1 N21,F17
4. X=4 (T4)
5. Swing-Block (T3), Rhino2 N24,F14
5. X=5 (T8)
6. Swing2-Block(T6), Rhino3 N2
N27,F11
6. X=6 (T12)
Swing 6. Block1(T11). N22
7. Swing3-Block(T8).
Rhino4 F8. N25
7. (Ferocious Claws kills next turn)
X=4(T12).
Sustenance12. F20, N13
Swing 8. Block1(T11). F20, N6
8. Rhino5. F17, N9
Here, swinging leaves too few blockers to live
8. X=8 (T19).
Swing 11. Block5(T14) N3
9. Rhino6. F14, N6
9. Swing 14, Block 6, Dead
Draw:
1.
1. Mystic
2.
2. X=2
3.
3. Swing 2. N18
Eot Blight
4. Rhino. F17, N21
EOT X=3
4. X=4 (T7)
5. Rhino. F14, N24
Swing-Block(T6)
5. X=5 (T11)
6. Rhino. F11, N27
Swing2-Block2(T9)
6. X=6 (T15)
Swing11. Block1(T14). N17
7. Rhino. F8, N20
7. X=4. (T18).
Sustenance. F26, N2
Swing Dead
No longer staff here.
I'll post a more thorough assessment of all my questionable matchups later today hopefully.
That easily swings it into your win, actually.
No longer staff here.
I'm pretty sure I'm 6-0 against 11 on further review. Since Sidisi's Faithful only bounces and Ruthless Ripper relies on me attacking to get the kill, I can build up a force of at least 4 rhinos (draining 12) before the discard locks me by discarding Bile Blight, then attacks and Crater's Claws easily wins.
X | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
5 | 6 6 6 0 X 6 0 6 6 0 6 6 | 48 | 436
I don't have complete listings, but for most of them I looked it over and my original logic looks sound. I'll try get out a full listing for 10 and 12 to resolve the disputes later today.
6-0
I've run it a couple of ways. It gets confusing and drawn out with tons of lines of play when breaking it down: do I swing early, does he swing or hold, do I hold sustenance mana to make him hold dissipate mana, etc. In the end, I outgrow him fast enough early on that I can take some hits, then block and swing back. Make tokens to block if he swings again, then finish him. If he swings, he's open for me to swing through quickly, if he doesn't, I just outgrow to get most of my guys through.
His best play is on my draw, with him swinging to try and race the overrun:
(Him not swinging just means I have more life and grow an extra turn for the mass overrun)
D1
F1 Mystic
D2 Stockpile
F2
D3 ..
EOT X=2
F3. ..
EOT Cycle1. Z1
D4. Swing. F18
EOT X=3 T5
F4. ..
EOT Cycle2. Z3
D5. Swing 3*2. F12
EOT X=4. T9
F5. ..
EOT Cycle2. Z5
D5. Swing 5*2. F2
EOT X=5. T14
F5. Swing 14.
IRSP Cycle1. Z6
If Cycle 2 -> Sustenance -> Death
Block 1 (T13). D@7
No EOT cycle (otherwise: -> Sustenance -> Death)
D6. ..Choices..
.. Swing 6*2
Block 6. T7
EOT X=5
No Dissipate:
T12. Untap swing, death
Dissipate:
Untap. X=3. Sustenance=Death
(Swing=Death)
.. Hold
EOT X=5
Dissipate:
Untap. X=3. Sustenance=Death
No Dissipate:
T18. Untap, Swing = Death
(Hold=Death)
Death turn 7 whether he swings or not, and whether he dissipates or not.
02v09 Surfy8
6-0
By the time he can swing and pump, I can cast his turn & double block to get rid of them. I sacrifice/hold the first 6 guys I get this way, and then easily outrace the 8/9th turn kill - On turn 7, even having lost 6 guys, I Sustenance for 14, easily winning.
02v12 nerdyjoe
3-3
nerdyjoe's breakdown has me casting sustenance early, which I don't do. I'd rather have the 3 tokens and ability to use it later if possible. He also has a mentor swinging turn 5 unblocked. I'll X=5 in response and sacrifice 1 token to stop the damage, which means a swing is pointless.
My play, I should win by a turn.
On my draw, I lose.
F1. Mystic
N1.
F2. X=2
N2.
F3. Swing2 N18.
N3. Hold. (Mentor->Sustenance)
EOT X=3 T5
F4. Swing5 N13.
N4. Mentor. (Swan Song Mana)
EOT X=4 T9
F5. Swing 9.
Block 1. T8. N5
N6. ..
(Swing could be 12)
But then I make X=5 tokens and block
If he doesn't swing, he just blocks that token when I do
So nothing gained or lost for a swing.
If he Songs, then take it, Sustenance next turn = death
EOT X=6. T14
F6. Swing14.
Strike*5
Block 6 = Take 8 = Dead
Swan Song himself = Sustenance = Dead
His only option to stop this is to use Swan Song to stop a token spell.
But if he does this, I'm still at T8, and Sustenance kills outright.
N1.
F1. Mystic
N2.
F2. X=2
N3.
F3.
N4. Mentor
EOT X=3 T5
F4. Swing5. Block1. T4, N16
N5.
EOT X=4 T8.
F5. Swing8.
Strike*4 DT4
Block5. T3. DT3. N13
N6. Swing Mentor+3
Strike*5, Spread evenly, double up 1 guy.
IRSP X=5. Chump. DT8
F6. ..
Swing 3 = N10. No blockers=death. Hold.
N7. Swing, Swan Song my X=6. Win.
I've finished my matchups.
I agree that I lose to notgreat - if I had remembered trample, I wouldn't have even questioned it.
I disagree with the initial Counterspell people, nerdyjoe, and a couple others - but I've broken down turn by turn for each.
XX | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 |
02 | 6 X 6 6 0 0 6 6 6 6 6 3 | 44 | 400
No longer staff here.
6-0
I haven't had time to run this matchup from my end, but we can update it to a 6 for me I guess since 07 has recorded a 0 for himself vs me.
Brings me to an amazing
8 | 0 0 0 3 0 0 6 X 3 3 0 0 | 12
!
I realized my mistake vs 10: I was forgetting about how powerful Prophet of Kruphix was. This gives you enough time to deal 20 to me before my rhinos begin resolving.
vs. 10, W's play+card: (to represent both scenarios at once)
Turns 1-5 are all lands since neither player can afford to play their threat and let their shields down. Then I begin playing Rhinos and WhammeWhamme counters them. Turn 7 I've drawn 6 rhinos, played 1 (countered). This gives WhammeWhamme the opportunity to play Prophet with two counterspells up- one for removal, one for my next rhino. I waste the Bile Blight, letting it be countered, and on my turn try for a Crater's Claws (it's countered) and then keep trying to play Siege Rhinos. I have 6 rhinos in hand, you have 4 counterspells. You can play your Dragon at instant speed and lock down a rhino I play. It will take me ~4 turns to start having rhinos resolve, and you will have dealt me 24 damage in that time.
I am still confident in my matchup vs. 12. My 2nd removal spell kills his Mentor before it can make enough tokens, unless he casts it really late in which case I have enough rhinos+burn to trample you to death.
1 | 0 0 6 0 0 6 0 6 6 0 X 3 | 26
1 - 0:
I'm not 100% sure how my match against madman pans out but i suspect i lose. we both can do 2 damage a turn starting turn 3. i should be able to stop warden doing anything by recasting my exploited sidis faithful. the real wrench in the gears is if he's able to ever get a kheru spellsnatcher down. i think being able to double cast kolaghan's command on turn 6 gets me slightly ahead but i'm very uncertain. this might come down to whose ever on the play.
it's also worth noting, once i have 6 mana, my clock gets faster. i can morph ruthless ripper, reveal command to make madman lose 2 life, then sac it to crackling doom. the threat of warden of the first tree might stop this play ever happening over exploiting the faithful
2 - 0:
i think i lose without harsh sustenance. with harsh sustenance it isn't even close
3 - 6:
herald only ativates at sorcery speed. i bounce your second herald, then, once i'm on 3 mana, i keep mana up on your turn, in case you try outlast. if you do, i kill the herald and make you discard. 2 damage + discard, should mop up your heralds and tokens pretty quickly, then i can finish you off
4 - 0:
counterspell is a strong card. i can beat down for a few turns, but it only takes a few zombies before the game slips out of control
5 - 0:
this match is super confusing but i think you win. it's close though. i think crater's claw might be my undoing. play or draw, you draw 2 siege rhinos before i can start making you discard. your first discard is bile blight, so you get 3 rhinos. if you're on the play, you can play rhinos turn 4, 5, and 6. if i'm on the play, I can make you discard twice on turn 6 (because I never cast my turn 2 command), meaning you only get 2 rhinos in play.
2 rhinos deail 6 damage, and gain you 6 life. swinging with both rhinos into my 0/4 wall, and my 1/1 death touch will deal me 3 damage. this means you only manage to deal 9 to me, and will have to deal 11 with crater's claw, which you can't do until turn 10. on the play, i start i play a ripper, and deal 4 damage with it before you play your first rhino. i then start dealing 2 damage a turn, starting turn 3, and need to do 22 damage. i also do an extra 2 damage on turn 6, when i cast command a second time. on my 10th turn, you're at 4 life.
on the draw it ends up being worse.
6 - 6:
your clock is pretty slow, and all winds does is act as a way to prevent discarding a crater's claw.
7 - 0:
your deck starts a bit slow, but you can just keep commanding in response to my command, netting you a ton of life and damaging me : (
8 - 6:
another super complicated one. i can use discard mode initially to strip dissipate out of your hand. you can stockpile in response, but your hand size has to shrink. once it's down i try chain bouncing tokens to race you hopefully...
9 - 6:
sorry about the deck. sorcery speed win condition loses to repeatable discard, and i can answer your tokens fairly well...
10 - 0:
counterspelled : (
12 3-3:
i think you were playing my deck suboptimally. i'd make a 0/4 on turn 2. i would also probably block diferently. i don't think the out come ends up changing though
1 | X 0 6 6 0 6 0 6 6 6 6 6 | 48 | 436
2 | 6 X 6 6 0 0 6 6 6 6 6 3 | 50 | 455
3 | 0 0 X 6 0 1 6 6 6 3 0 0 | 27 | 245
4 | 0 0 0 X 6 6 6 3 6 2 6 3 | 36 | 327
5 | 6 6 6 0 X 6 0 6 6 0 6 6 | 48 | 436
6 | 0 6 4 0 0 X 0 6 0 0 0 6 | 22 | 200
7 | 6 0 0 0 6 6 X 0 6 0 6 0 | 30 | 273
8 | 0 0 0 3 0 0 6 X 3 3 0 0 | 12 | 109
9 | 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 3 X 0 0 0 | 08 | 073
0 | 0 0 3 2 6 6 6 3 6 X 6 3 | 38 | 345
1 | 0 0 6 0 0 6 0 6 6 0 X 3 | 26 | 236
2 | 0 3 6 3 0 0 6 6 6 3 3 X | 32 | 291
changelog:
1v3 6-0 trample and lifelink
1v9 6-0 lifelink
2v4 listed 6-3 > 6-0
2v10 listed 6-6 > 6-0
2v12 listed 3-6 > 3-3
3v4 ? this one is still hard. im gonna say you win
3v9 6-0 out tokened
5v12 listed 6-3 > 6-0 rhino lifeswings
7v10 listed 2-6 > 0-6