On your play:
With you casting Vault the turn before (this is what I missed, no idea why), you get to 4 lands before me.
With the petal, this gives you the 8 you need to cast sneak and hardcast foil, before I can hardcast back.
On your draw:
Here, I get to 4 mana before you. Thus, if you try to drop turn 4, you can sneak and foil->foil, but I foil->foil back.
If you don't, you have nothing left to drop and can only wait 4 more turns. Assuming I'm nice and dont kill you, you'll be able to hardcast foil twice, but so will I.
We split.
____
I think this has me squared away, as WW and snurfy8 were the only rough matchups.
Going over it again... remember, the "backup" threat is to hit 15 mana off Mana Vault and Lotus Petals. Casting Sneak Attack and Foil and getting double Foiled is acceptable - it gives me two Lotus Petals and unflips Mayor, and then I can untap Mana Vault.
I GTG, will try to go over it in full later.
Edit: Damn it. It appears you win the race by precisely one turn. See! Emrakul is substantially worse than Ulamog!
Unless I'm missing something, the petals can reflip once, but after that you're out of steam, and I kill you 3 mana shy. It's definitely a rough matchup, so I don't discourage you from trying other lines that we may have missed.
There are a ton of disputes this week. Here's a google doc to help out. Look at the "Disputed" sheet to see the disagreements. Copied from Tomsloger's table.
08 notgreat :: "Braindrain"
Exploration / Mana Drain / Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
01: I can counter the mayor and easily win through Valakut
02: Chalice can't be cast before Exploration, and I have a way faster kill condition
03: When I go first, I get the Exploration down first, so I'm always ahead in the hypothesized counter war. Even with half my lands going to islands to fuel the counter war, my Valakut wins before you can hardcast Emrakul. If you go first you can cast Sneak Attack T1 and win normally.
04: You can either get Braids or Chalice for 1, not both. I win either way.
05: If you go first I lose easily. If I go first, I get Mana Drain ready and can counter LED. You can Mana Drain back by using the Exploration, but then I get to cast a 2nd copy of Exploration. Ends up at the same end result since Emrakul outraces me, but it's close. See below.
06: I've got Mana Drain for Council's and Mangara is summoning sick which lets Valakut kill it- But if I'm on the draw, you get to cast both before I'm able to use both of mine so you can get the tie.
07: see 05
08: X
09: If I go first I counter Student and easily win. If you go first, you just barely win. (see below)
10: If you're on the play your tokens easily outrace me. If I'm on the play, I wait for you to play Mayor (T2) before casting Exploration. I have enough mana to Mana Drain your Foil, letting my Exploration succeed. Mayor doesn't flip until my next upkeep since a spell was cast. See below.
shorthand: M(x) = x mountains in play
05/07 expanded:
1a) forest, exploration, island, lotus petal
1b) forest, exploration, island, lotus petal, LED-> Mana Drain vs. Mana Drain
2a) exploration, M(3), LED, lotus petal x3
2b) Shelldock
3a) M(5), Valakut
3b) Emrakul
3b-2) Emrakul attacks, I sacrifice Island x2+Forest+3x Lotus Petal
4a) M(8)-> 9 damage to anything, but I die next swing.
BTW you have exactly 4 cards in your library when you Shelldock. One more and I'd have the win.
Our matchup: You forget that you give me a copy of Exploration if you do that. I play it on my first turn, and if it gets Drained, I can go off. If not, I hit 15 mana on turn 7 simply by playing a Lotus Petal, and on turn 5 by playing Mana Vault + Petal. Your goldfish ain't *that* fast.
In my reading of the round rule, it's a triggered ability that activates on cast. So casting an LED gives Feyd_Ruin a card to pitch to Foil. They can pitch it to counter the LED that's still on the stack if they want.
It works like heroic/prowess/emmrakul/cascade/argothian enchantress triggers. Someone else can weigh in on this, especially madmanquail, that'd be nice.
Confirmed. The copied card and the Lotus Petal are both added upon casting of a noncreature spell, so the original spell will still be on the stack.
@feyd_ruin: You're right. Changed.
@yarn: Here's how I think it plays out:
Y1: Ritual into Petal into Braids, drop Chalice (it doesn't do anything here)
S1: Ritual into Bridge, drop both Chalices and all three Petals as blank cards
Y2: You have to sac a land or a chalice to braids
S2: I have to sac a land to braids (remember, the Chalices and Petals were stopped by your chalice on 0)
Now I have one card in hand, no lands in play, and only the bridge. Each turn I have to play a land only to sac it to braids on next upkeep. Braids can't get under the bridge, but I can't play Megaliths because I'll just have to sac it.
Now, with me on play:
S1: Drop land, Chalice on 0.
Y1: Drop land
S2: Drop Megaliths
Y2: Ritual into Braids
S3: Sac my Chalice to braids, play third land, use first land to ritual into bridge, drop any additional Petals as blank cards
Now Megaliths can ping you to death, since it doesn't need to be sac'd to Braids.
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@notgreat
Council's Judgment can't hit lands, so you only have to hold up mana for countering Mangara. You're always at least even in mana with me. If I'm on the play, I get one extra land drop, but that only accounts for the difference between the cost of mangara (3) and the first mana drain (2). I love that people are trying to give me points I don't deserve, but I have to fight back for honesty.
10: If you're on the play your tokens easily outrace me. If I'm on the play, I wait for you to play Mayor (T2) before casting Exploration. I have enough mana to Mana Drain your Foil, letting my Exploration succeed. Mayor doesn't flip until my next upkeep since a spell was cast. See below.
That makes sense.
I'll see if I have any hope of slowrolling mayor to drain your drain.
This will lead to drain->drain->drain, etc, so at best perhaps a tie.
I have a feeling at some point you can just start playing mountains though.
I'll definitely agree to 3-3 for now, as slowrolling seems like a longshot.
Edit:
My longshot fails.
When you play M2, I can drop Mayor and still safely win any Drain war. However, you Drain the mayor, rather then holding to protect Exploration. I win the drain war there and get the Mayor, but exploration comes down on your next turn, and since I'm tapped, you win that war. Once exploration comes down, there's no hope. If I continue to hold mayor, you continue to drop mountains. So yeah, there's no slow roll that makes it any better for me.
3-3
updated OP and tournament standings in first two posts.
be on the lookout: he is a bit behind, but another strong showing like the last two and whamme could become the first month winner to only submit 3 out of 4 weeks.
Ok, yeah, we 3-3.
On your play:
With you casting Vault the turn before (this is what I missed, no idea why), you get to 4 lands before me.
With the petal, this gives you the 8 you need to cast sneak and hardcast foil, before I can hardcast back.
On your draw:
Here, I get to 4 mana before you. Thus, if you try to drop turn 4, you can sneak and foil->foil, but I foil->foil back.
If you don't, you have nothing left to drop and can only wait 4 more turns. Assuming I'm nice and dont kill you, you'll be able to hardcast foil twice, but so will I.
We split.
____
I think this has me squared away, as WW and snurfy8 were the only rough matchups.
No longer staff here.
I GTG, will try to go over it in full later.
Edit: Damn it. It appears you win the race by precisely one turn. See! Emrakul is substantially worse than Ulamog!
F1. Forest
W1. Island
F2. Forest -> Mayor
W2. Mountain -> Vault
F3. Swing 1: W@19
W3. (Flip 3/3). (1 Lotus Petal here won't reflip)
F4. Swing 3: W16, Token
W4. Sneak Attack -> Foil -> Foil -> Foil.
F5. (unflip). Swing (1+2): W@13.
W5. (Flip 3/3). (Untap Vault) Lotus Petal, Lotus Petal.
F6. (unflip). Swing (1+2): W@10
W6. (Flip 3/3)
(Nothing to cast to try to unflip)
(6 Lands, 2 Petals, 1 Vault = 11)
F7. Swing (3+3): W@4. Token
W7. 12 mana. Nothing to stop next turn.
Unless I'm missing something, the petals can reflip once, but after that you're out of steam, and I kill you 3 mana shy. It's definitely a rough matchup, so I don't discourage you from trying other lines that we may have missed.
No longer staff here.
08 notgreat :: "Braindrain"
Exploration / Mana Drain / Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
01: I can counter the mayor and easily win through Valakut
02: Chalice can't be cast before Exploration, and I have a way faster kill condition
03: When I go first, I get the Exploration down first, so I'm always ahead in the hypothesized counter war. Even with half my lands going to islands to fuel the counter war, my Valakut wins before you can hardcast Emrakul. If you go first you can cast Sneak Attack T1 and win normally.
04: You can either get Braids or Chalice for 1, not both. I win either way.
05: If you go first I lose easily. If I go first, I get Mana Drain ready and can counter LED. You can Mana Drain back by using the Exploration, but then I get to cast a 2nd copy of Exploration. Ends up at the same end result since Emrakul outraces me, but it's close. See below.
06: I've got Mana Drain for Council's and Mangara is summoning sick which lets Valakut kill it- But if I'm on the draw, you get to cast both before I'm able to use both of mine so you can get the tie.
07: see 05
08: X
09: If I go first I counter Student and easily win. If you go first, you just barely win. (see below)
10: If you're on the play your tokens easily outrace me. If I'm on the play, I wait for you to play Mayor (T2) before casting Exploration. I have enough mana to Mana Drain your Foil, letting my Exploration succeed. Mayor doesn't flip until my next upkeep since a spell was cast. See below.
shorthand: M(x) = x mountains in play
05/07 expanded:
1a) forest, exploration, island, lotus petal
1b) forest, exploration, island, lotus petal, LED-> Mana Drain vs. Mana Drain
2a) exploration, M(3), LED, lotus petal x3
2b) Shelldock
3a) M(5), Valakut
3b) Emrakul
3b-2) Emrakul attacks, I sacrifice Island x2+Forest+3x Lotus Petal
4a) M(8)-> 9 damage to anything, but I die next swing.
BTW you have exactly 4 cards in your library when you Shelldock. One more and I'd have the win.
09 expanded:
1a) Student (0)
1b) Exploration, M(1)
2a) Student (2) = 3
2b) M(3)
3a) Student (5) = 6
3b) M(5)
4a) Student (9) = 14
4b) Valakut, Mountain. 3 damage, but doesn't kill.
10 expanded:
3a) UUG, Exploration->Mana Drain, M(1)
3b) attack, =1, flip next upkeep
4a) M(3)
4b) Token, =4
5a) M(5)
5b) Token, =10
6a) Valakut, kill Mayor
6b) =14 (tokens are now 2/2s)
7a) Kill tokens
Eventual Valakut win
I've got 3 disputes: 3, 6, and 10. I've provided my reasoning inside the spoiler.
Confirmed. The copied card and the Lotus Petal are both added upon casting of a noncreature spell, so the original spell will still be on the stack.
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@yarn: Here's how I think it plays out:
Y1: Ritual into Petal into Braids, drop Chalice (it doesn't do anything here)
S1: Ritual into Bridge, drop both Chalices and all three Petals as blank cards
Y2: You have to sac a land or a chalice to braids
S2: I have to sac a land to braids (remember, the Chalices and Petals were stopped by your chalice on 0)
Now I have one card in hand, no lands in play, and only the bridge. Each turn I have to play a land only to sac it to braids on next upkeep. Braids can't get under the bridge, but I can't play Megaliths because I'll just have to sac it.
Now, with me on play:
S1: Drop land, Chalice on 0.
Y1: Drop land
S2: Drop Megaliths
Y2: Ritual into Braids
S3: Sac my Chalice to braids, play third land, use first land to ritual into bridge, drop any additional Petals as blank cards
Now Megaliths can ping you to death, since it doesn't need to be sac'd to Braids.
Council's Judgment can't hit lands, so you only have to hold up mana for countering Mangara. You're always at least even in mana with me. If I'm on the play, I get one extra land drop, but that only accounts for the difference between the cost of mangara (3) and the first mana drain (2). I love that people are trying to give me points I don't deserve, but I have to fight back for honesty.
Still very sure it's 6-0 to you.
I'll see if I have any hope of slowrolling mayor to drain your drain.
This will lead to drain->drain->drain, etc, so at best perhaps a tie.
I have a feeling at some point you can just start playing mountains though.
I'll definitely agree to 3-3 for now, as slowrolling seems like a longshot.
Edit:
My longshot fails.
When you play M2, I can drop Mayor and still safely win any Drain war. However, you Drain the mayor, rather then holding to protect Exploration. I win the drain war there and get the Mayor, but exploration comes down on your next turn, and since I'm tapped, you win that war. Once exploration comes down, there's no hope. If I continue to hold mayor, you continue to drop mountains. So yeah, there's no slow roll that makes it any better for me.
3-3
No longer staff here.
it can? isnt it a colored spell?
looked it up though. it totally can.
weird. i was wondering why its worth $10. hits true name too. thats crazy.
final(?) grid with TPs
X | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
1 | X 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 | 08 | 089
2 | 6 X 6 4 3 2 3 0 6 0 | 28 | 311
3 | 6 0 X 6 6 1 6 6 0 3 | 33 | 367
4 | 6 1 0 X 3 1 3 0 1 0 | 13 | 144
5 | 6 3 0 3 X 0 3 6 0 0 | 18 | 200
6 | 3 2 4 4 6 X 6 0 2 1 | 27 | 300
7 | 6 3 0 3 3 0 X 6 0 0 | 18 | 200
8 | 6 6 0 6 0 6 0 X 3 3 | 28 | 311
9 | 6 0 6 4 6 2 6 3 X 2 | 34 | 378
0 | 0 6 3 6 6 4 6 3 2 X | 34 | 378
updated OP and tournament standings in first two posts.
be on the lookout: he is a bit behind, but another strong showing like the last two and whamme could become the first month winner to only submit 3 out of 4 weeks.