So some unexpected difficulties came up and I won't be able to do as much real analysis as I'd hoped. I get town vibes from Rhand, less so Seperiel but I concur with Taredas about a Seppel lynch.
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A mirror, a shield, a promise, a great distance, and a kind word-- five ways to avoid harm.
I like Rhand so far, even though I think he's tunneling on Sepiral too much. You've got to try and imagine how you'd feel if a significant wagon built up on you over your very first RVS post. And then not just keep it to how you personally would feel but imagine how someone else might. Like I said before, I can see where Sep. is coming from on that.
@Proph: given that you have apparently admitted to a deliberate shift in playstyle from last game to this (without saying you were going to do so in the thread) what makes my vote on you so poor? Like, if one game you make it a point to mention how you like to look for odd RVS stuff to jump on and attack - which is more or less exactly what you said last game - and then you don't do that here, instead doing what appears to be the opposite, with no explanation, wouldn't that make for a reasonable case of raised eyebrows? And then, when specifically asked about it, and then you say "well, I did notice the thing, but I'm deliberately doing it different this game because it didn't work out so well last time" - again, wouldn't that at least make for a reasonable suspicion?
I don't even care so much if you ignore the vote - but you went out of your way to characterize it as "pretty poor" so, what would you say makes it so?
I have a tendency to dislike the short, hit & run posters. Snurfy maybe being the worst atm. The "you guys post too much" cry of dismay always seems to ring false to me. I am getting the bad vibes from AI now too.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Tar, look over the last few pages again, and tell me I haven't interacted with ZDS at all.
@ZDS:
I don't know how I got them confused, it just happened. But saYing I was paying less attention to them because I 'know I can't pressure them' (because they're "big name players" seems to be what you're implying) is the fattest load of bull ***** I've seen in this thread so far.
I don't care if this is your first game, or if you've been playing for 20 years, if you're scummy I'll call you out on it - and you can see me have this attitude since I've started playing mafia. It's even gotten me lynched a few times despite me being right - but I keep on it, because I think it's such garbage when old faces get a pass just for being an old face.
And I'll proudly link you multiple games if you're asking for a source.
So the rest of your case to make you vote me is:
- an rvs-era vote you don't agree with, but admit it's "fine"
- a question you think is okay, but a little late
- you don't like how I said you and prophzorz could be buddies
Fantastic case all around. You've now only changed your story twice, and have ignored quite a few shallow people, even though that's what you originally said you were voting /me/ for.
Something just dawned on me. We're playing right into the cards of scum with all the guild claims.
@All the non-Gruul that haven't claimed yet: please don't do it.
Especially the remaining Orzhov need to keep silent.
It is good that the abilities are public, but not good that the players having them are outed too.
The @Sepiriel and @Az will not help you find scum.
Don't like this statement. What, you don't think I'll find scum if I dig into Sep?
The @Proph : You want me to keep pressure on Proph but you specifically want Proph's input to see if your scumread is correct? No
Wrong. Proph's last couple post have had a "lol, I have no scum reads" vibe and I want to see if he'll actually commit to something
Quote from Taredas »
- Not sure why Proph is drawing flak? Everything I've seen is pretty typical Proph (see: Porcelain Waltz and Unreal Tournament), and he's being active (Proph has one of the same fundamental limitations as scum that I do: he can't maintain motivation as scum for extended periods of time, and tends to lurk, especially as the game goes on).
Weak defense of proph. It's early in Day 1, if he's losing motivation it wouldn't have shown by now. Plus, I happen to know he's been hyped for this game for months, if ever there was a time he'd be motivated as scum it's here
Snurfy.
Hey, Snurfy.
Are you scum?
Here's the 'asking useless questions' scumtell again. Give no value to the town and trumps up your post to make it seem like it's doing something
Why post this?
Obviously it's because the Ghost Council showed up. I know you know this and you're just using filler
A) I'm not sure why Proph thinks Sir Karn has a "focus" on hunting pairs instead of individuals from just one post, but aside from that I completely understand Proph finding Karn's 43 questionable and don't understand why you *don't* - Karn takes a potshot at Proph without backing it up with a vote or following up on it in any way, which doesn't make a lot of sense from town and *does* make sense if Karn is scum slinging mud at a townie to see if it sticks.
B) Why would Proph focusing on finding town be concerning? Proph's a PoE player like myself, and PoE relies on figuring out which players *aren't* scum and lynching the rest - finding and clearing town *is* scumhunting in that mindset.
C) Why does Proph's response to hans "reek"? It makes perfect sense if Proph is town who thought about what hans was doing and realized that it would make no sense from scum.
Really, you're telling me you'd rather try to clear ~15 or so players instead of finding scum? It's easier for a scum player to 'clear' a town player than scumhunt because they know they're already right and it makes them look like they;re doing something.
vote Taredas
You jumped to the defense of proph pretty fast and your post is full of scumtells
I still don't know exactly what the best thing to do is re:gruul voting, basically I think it should be fine as long as I'm careful with any large wagons
Taredas + Proph + Rhand scumteam looks probable this game
Unless you've stepped up your scum game significantly, you are not confident enough to post that sort of thing as scum without having some sort of direction for followup.
Fair enough.
Quote from Togs »
Vish's wagon looks promising, I'm not a fan of the way he jumped on Sepirel in #129. It looks like he's going out of his way to misinterpret the quote
@Proph take a look at vish and tell me what you see
Why are you asking my opinion on Vishamon when you think I'm scum? This feels like you're reacting to all of the people calling me town and hoping to switch off onto another wagon.
Quote from Rhand »
Ew. You're basicly saying that you are consciously avoiding your own meta.
And why would you get that flak if I'm the one being vocal about the RVS thing?
What do you mean? I'm taking things that didn't work in my previous game and learning from them. My RVS approach didn't work out in that game, so in this game I adopted more of a "wait and see" approach.
I pointed out that I got pressured/got flak in my previous game for overextending.
Quote from ZDS »
Proph -> Can you expend on why your lead on Sir Karn went nowhere?
Proph Bis -> Nobody suggested we should lynch the ghost council.
My lead on Sir Karn went nowhere because I misapplied the "tying two people together" tell that I mentioned in one of my other posts. As for Sir Karn himself, he's typically quite difficult to read for me, so my primary way to read him is via interactions or PoE. The more I play with him the more I think that Megs's strategy of ignoring him works better.
I wanted to shut down discussion of the Ghost Council immediately since it's mechanics talk we don't need on Day 1, or at all. I thought that if I didn't address it then more people would talk about it.
I like Tar's post, and I agree with his points about Togs.
Quote from AI »
Taredas brings up a good point re: lynching Sepiriel today. All the more reason for *bang bang shoot shoot* N1.
Why are you advocating vigging Sepiriel when Tar mentioned that Orzhovians's alignments aren't revealed when they die?
Quote from Axel »
@Proph: given that you have apparently admitted to a deliberate shift in playstyle from last game to this (without saying you were going to do so in the thread) what makes my vote on you so poor? Like, if one game you make it a point to mention how you like to look for odd RVS stuff to jump on and attack - which is more or less exactly what you said last game - and then you don't do that here, instead doing what appears to be the opposite, with no explanation, wouldn't that make for a reasonable case of raised eyebrows? And then, when specifically asked about it, and then you say "well, I did notice the thing, but I'm deliberately doing it different this game because it didn't work out so well last time" - again, wouldn't that at least make for a reasonable suspicion?
I don't even care so much if you ignore the vote - but you went out of your way to characterize it as "pretty poor" so, what would you say makes it so?
It's "pretty poor" because, well, I'm town. To further expand on the point, you're basically just attacking me for the same reason I attacked you in Iji - for not playing the same as in a previous game.
Quote from Axelrod »
But you are never going to get anywhere with "he isn't playing like himself." Not for anyone, not just me. After careful consideration, I've decided you can sometimes, maybe, look at old games to see if play was similar. And draw an inference like "if he was Town/scum in that game and played like X, and he's playing like X here...maybe." But NOT "he was Town/Scum in that game and played like X, but he's NOT playing like X here so...." The "opposite" inference is almost worthless.
Quote from Rhand »
Something just dawned on me. We're playing right into the cards of scum with all the guild claims.
@All the non-Gruul that haven't claimed yet: please don't do it.
Especially the remaining Orzhov need to keep silent.
It is good that the abilities are public, but not good that the players having them are outed too.
Thank you for using your brain.
---
Hoping to do a full reread today, but willing to lynch Togs based off of his response to me + Tar's post.
Something just dawned on me. We're playing right into the cards of scum with all the guild claims.
@All the non-Gruul that haven't claimed yet: please don't do it.
Especially the remaining Orzhov need to keep silent.
It is good that the abilities are public, but not good that the players having them are outed too.
I'm not even sure. At first I was like "there are 4 guilds and the Mafia are hiding in those four, so, the Mafia already know the 'guild abilities' and we're only keeping info from the Town by not saying." And then I was like "but, wait, the Mafia aren't actually members of the guilds they are 'hiding' in - they are Dimir, right? So, maybe they don't actually know the Guild abilities and we're shooting ourselves in the foot right out the gate by saying them..." And then I was like "but, no, that's probably not how it is. They have very likely been given the same guild abilities as the Town to mask them, so it's back to what I thought originally." And in that case, it seems like hiding what Guild you are is just going to be hard.
Ew. You're basicly saying that you are consciously avoiding your own meta.
And why would you get that flak if I'm the one being vocal about the RVS thing?
What do you mean? I'm taking things that didn't work in my previous game and learning from them. My RVS approach didn't work out in that game, so in this game I adopted more of a "wait and see" approach.
I pointed out that I got pressured/got flak in my previous game for overextending.
I got the sense from the last game that that wasn't some kind of 1-off experiment. You were saying that's just how you do. Like, you didn't learn this lesson from any of your previous games ever?
Quote from Axel »
@Proph: given that you have apparently admitted to a deliberate shift in playstyle from last game to this (without saying you were going to do so in the thread) what makes my vote on you so poor? Like, if one game you make it a point to mention how you like to look for odd RVS stuff to jump on and attack - which is more or less exactly what you said last game - and then you don't do that here, instead doing what appears to be the opposite, with no explanation, wouldn't that make for a reasonable case of raised eyebrows? And then, when specifically asked about it, and then you say "well, I did notice the thing, but I'm deliberately doing it different this game because it didn't work out so well last time" - again, wouldn't that at least make for a reasonable suspicion?
I don't even care so much if you ignore the vote - but you went out of your way to characterize it as "pretty poor" so, what would you say makes it so?
It's "pretty poor" because, well, I'm town. To further expand on the point, you're basically just attacking me for the same reason I attacked you in Iji - for not playing the same as in a previous game.
Uh, I don't think I'm going to acknowledge the "it's poor because I'm Town" part of this. As for the rest, I am going to give you that this isn't something by itself I would push to lynch anyone off of. But again, you kind of brushed it off without even acknowledging you were doing something different (until Rhand asked you, I guess).
Quote from Axelrod »
But you are never going to get anywhere with "he isn't playing like himself." Not for anyone, not just me. After careful consideration, I've decided you can sometimes, maybe, look at old games to see if play was similar. And draw an inference like "if he was Town/scum in that game and played like X, and he's playing like X here...maybe." But NOT "he was Town/Scum in that game and played like X, but he's NOT playing like X here so...." The "opposite" inference is almost worthless.
I said "almost"
Maybe I just think that if you are going to very deliberately do something different from what you have done before you would normally, I don't know, announce something to that effect in the thread. Like "you know guys, this wagon on Sep. It's kind of bad. I used to do that whole 'jump on someone for something unusual like self-voting' but that didn't work out too well and I no longer advocate it" etc, etc.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@Axel: it's not about knowing what the abilities do. That's fine. It's about scum knowing who has them.
Proph is town. (Yes Atog, now I do back off. I did not drop my suspicion after that post you quoted. Read all of my posts next time you want to make an attack)
I looked at Rhand's posts and can see where you would get that conclusion (not townreading him yet because generally I like my town reads to be more accurate than my scum reads, and would rather pick the low-hanging fruit here first), but why Axelrod? His first few posts are about mechanics before he places a pretty poor vote on me.
And doesn't ZDS's post come with an alignment read?
Somebody asked me why I only have the 5-6 given reads thus far and went out of my way to state a null read on Sepiriel. Is it all right if I just point at what number post this is in the game and allow that to speak for me?
I agree about the first post being an awkward RVS tell.
Seps' 2nd post in game reads strongly town. Exhibit A:
Quote from Seps »
I take this as RVS, its dumb, its pointless, it carries no weight... Shrugs
How many years has it been since we last played? this is completely irrelevant to your vote btw im just curious.
Regarding your vote, not even bothering to '/barn' or anything, just jumped into the wagon without anything to say or add, im expecting people to notice this and bring it out later.
So many wagon jumps... its like they saw easy feeding and decided to try their luck. (yes by 'they' im referring to the scum)
These first three comments are a pretty typical town-like reaction under fire.
Following that goes, on to make a fairly reasonable, if slightly tone-deaf, case on Hansanator within the same post.
Exhibit B:
Quote from Sepiriel »
Im going to go ahead and say he saw easy pickings and is trying to test the waters, gather as much info for the scum as possible, he can always disengage from my wagon saying something like he never meant it or that he just wanted reactions, its so bad its amazing. Either that or this is so next level that regardless of my alignment im better of dead since i clearly can't wrap my head around this level of play.
Meanwhile the person the wagon is against is someone who you have no prior experience with and is being cased due to ONE RVS POST!!! (unless you did a name change to which i would like to ask your prior name).
So 1 RVS post convinced you that i scum, but you have Proph as a sure bet from scum, you then tie him to me, i have no idead how, but somehow you do.
I mean its great you are clearly having fun but... yeah if you really think im scum I'm gonna call bias and BS.
Good mix of indignation and incredulity, here. I buy that Seps really disagrees with the validity of the RVS tell, that's certainly genuine. Moreover, there's an underlying confidence and coolness under fire that is another good sign.
Quote from Sepiriel »
Wut? I have responded by basically laughing my ass off at the shear (sheer?) stupidity of this wagon... if anything I would have understood if you had said im am too RELAXED over the idea of being lynched...
I'm with seps on this. If anything Seps has been unusually cool and collected under fire. Rhand's read on her being scared of the lynch is probably based off nothing more than the size of her posts, rather than the actual content.
Quote from Sepiriel »
Hmmm the entire wagon is pretty much an "OMGUS YOU ARE SCUM FOR BEING SELF-CONCIOUS!", thats it, there is literally NOTHING of substance to the wagon.
Well put.
Quote from Sepiriel »
Then I amend my first statement, your vote is idiotic.
"Oh look you are trying to use wit, YOU MUST BE SCUM!!!!"
yeah good luck there.
Town!
Townietowntowntownitytowntown.
So, who's ready to let the counter-wagon begin and knock off Vishamon?
Gotcha. Yeah, when there's a wagon that is that relevant going on, I think it's important to at least put on record that you have nothing to put on record rather than ignoring it completely.
I have zero takes on Atog at the moment. The few posts I've seen pleased me but did not seem alignment indicative at first glance.
Something just dawned on me. We're playing right into the cards of scum with all the guild claims.
@All the non-Gruul that haven't claimed yet: please don't do it.
Especially the remaining Orzhov need to keep silent.
It is good that the abilities are public, but not good that the players having them are outed too.
There's also the issue of scum potentially false-claiming Orzhov now knowing that they are unlikely to be lynched toDay. Good catch.
Taredas + Proph + Rhand scumteam looks probable this game
Really? Even though almost everyone else has Rhand as strongly town?
Upon reread, Vish's Sepiriel vote is very bad. While ZDS has a point that Vish could simply be overzealous town, I think the timing feels more like scum sensing blood in the water.
Upon reread, Vish's Sepiriel vote is very bad. While ZDS has a point that Vish could simply be overzealous town, I think the timing feels more like scum sensing blood in the water.
Vote Vishamon
Funny, the timing is part of why I did not switch my vote to Vishamon. The Sepiriel wagon was already falling apart at that point and didn't seem like it would get new steam.
There's also the issue of scum potentially false-claiming Orzhov now knowing that they are unlikely to be lynched toDay. Good catch.
Really? Even though almost everyone else has Rhand as strongly town?
Upon reread, Vish's Sepiriel vote is very bad. While ZDS has a point that Vish could simply be overzealous town, I think the timing feels more like scum sensing blood in the water.
Vote Vishamon
Psych! Vishamon's town too after reread. And yours is a scum vote.
Funny, the timing is part of why I did not switch my vote to Vishamon. The Sepiriel wagon was already falling apart at that point and didn't seem like it would get new steam.
Okay, I'm going to do something similar I did in Social Engineering Mafia II and basically ISO each player. It's a great way for me in larger games to get a grasp on the general playerbase and refine my reads. I'll probably have questions coming though from looking at each player in detail, so you should open your spoiler and answer any questions that I have.
Don't have an opinion on hawk yet, though I'm a bit cautious of him buddying me so early since it feeds my ego. I'm fairly confident that he'll out himself as town or scum once the game progresses, though. Couple of questions for him:
1. Why are you assuming Sepiriel is scum based off the people who are voting him? That plays no factor on Sepiriel's alignment.
2. Why didn't you vote Sepiriel if you thought if he was scum?
3. If you thought that "claiming a guild was a good idea until Proph was against it" then why did you up and claim it in your first post anyways?
Waiting for Azrael to chime in on the "most mislynched player on the site". Catch of zindabad feels genuine, though. I guess leaning town based on his five posts?
Reads fairly logically, though I'm not really seeing insight into his mindset from his posts - AI's playstyle feels fairly distant from what I know of him. Kind of worrying that he's repeatedly stating that he's V/LA even though he's posting regularly - points to a guilty mindset, though that's not really enough to go on. Want Az and Axelrod to explain what's going on with AI, though, since scum!AI also reads logically.
1. Why are you advocating to vig Sepiriel N1 if he won't flip on death?
First couple of posts are about mechanics, but the first big warning sign is when he FoSes me instead of votes me. You're the first vote on my wagon, why would you be concerned with the Gruul mechanic taking place? And why would you be cautious to speed-lynch someone due to the Gruul mechanic if you actually think I'm scum? Mindset inconsistency.
His "I don't like how you backed off of Proph" to Rhand feels more mudslingy - I feel like a townie would be more inquisitive about it. Questions to Sepiriel and to Az are, as Rhand pointed out, not scumhunting. Suddenly forgets about me and goes after Vish, and as I pointed out, it's very awkward that he;'s asking me for my read on Vish if he thinks I'm scum.
He says that he's "digging into Sepiriel" but he's not digging into Sepiriel at all - just saying "work on that". Rest of his attack on Tar is mostly just theorycrafting. Scum read, for sure.
Reading mostly similar to Iji Axelrod where I horribly misread him. He's voting me for being different with regards to RVS, which I'll respond with in a separate post. Null read currently but I'll keep responding to him and see where my read of him goes.
Not continuing his trend of humor/aloofness from CT3 and Cyberspace, which I think is positive. More serious early in the game and seems to be trying to solve the game.
I don't have Az as a super high priority since I think he's a self resolving problem: He'll either peter out and lose motivation since I know that playing scum is exhausting for him, or he'll be nightkilled early since he's cramming lynches down scum throats. Pay attention to him if he's alive late game, but wouldn't mind trusting him early. Also inclined to trust Tar's "I think Az is town for reasons explain at this time". I can mostly follow his thought progress as well, sort of. Not lynching Day 1 anyways due to EV.
No posts yet. I will mention that I listed him as part of my PREGAME SCUM PREDICTIONS though.
Barely any posts yet, but a question:
1. If you're not loving hawk where he lists out half of the playerbase as town, then why aren't you voting him?
Town, as mentioned earlier. I would like him to start seriously playing the game though.
No posts yet. Keep the cube running though
I can follow his thought progress in his catchup post. Az is right for his posts being very natural-seeming, though I've been burned on reading Rhand before which is why I'm hesitant to commit to a read of him this early in the game. He's currently mirroring my thought process, though, and my gut says that he vs Sepiriel was town vs town - I think scum!Rhand would have gotten the hint earlier and switched off of him when the wagon was dissipating, but then he goes for it a bit longer. Smart about not claiming guild abilities too. If he hadn't blown me out in Winterfell, I would be leaning town here, but approaching this read with a bit of skepticism.
Not worth lynching Day 1 at any rate.
Not much due to his one post, which doesn't exactly inspire me.
1. If you call out Sepiriel and Atogaholic in that post, then why did your vote go on zindabad? What did zindabad do that was on another tier of scumminess than what you saw from Togs and Sepiriel?
Town, as I mentioned earlier.
I have an extremely difficult time reading Sir Karn, so I'm going with the Megs winning strategy of ignoring him until Day 3 or until he realizes I'm town or something. It's really strange that he's engaging with ZDS when ZDS is clearly not going to admit that he's scum, though.
Two very throwaway posts. Like Axelrod said, these drive by postings aren't inspiring me at all.
His first post largely resonates with me and I agree with most of it. I hope Tar's town this game but we'll see. Like Azrael and I, he peters out at the end so I guess if he's scum I'll catch him doing that.
Eleven pretty low-impact posts. At the moment, I'd like to see some analysis by him, not one liners that don't contribute much. I'm bothered that he doesn't appear to be caring about his questions though.
Like AI, his posts appear to be pretty logical. My only worry is that if he's scum, I wouldn't know what to look for. He's mentored me in the past (OOG: thank you for that, btw; you've advanced my mafia playing career into the next level and you were immensely valuable in Disney Villains). I know this is pretty lazy of me, but I'm thinking that I should put him on the backburner for now and wait until interaction/PoE comes up to actually start processing ZDS in detail. I think he's a good enough scum player that if I assign a town read to him, it'll probably linger in my brain going "what if?". I'm hoping to knock off the easy-to-read players first and come back to the tricky veterans later.
Posts do not exactly inspire me, though once again I mentioned that he has a defensive playstyle early game and strong analysis late game. I hope he shows some of this analysis earlier though.
1. Are you the type that likes to hold your vote? You've called out a number of players (AI, Sepiriel, Rhand) but you're not actually voting them, which reads to me like you're not taking a stance. Why?
To sum up:
UNQUESTIONABLY TOWN THUS FAR: Prophylaxis
I'M NOT COMFORTABLE WITH LYNCHING: hansanator, Sepiriel, Archmage Eternal, Azrael, Rhand, Taredas, ZeDorkSlipeur
I'M OKAY WITH LYNCHING: 7hawk77, AsianInvasion, Axelrod, Cythare, dkingsland967, KoolKoal, scarbo, Sir Karn, snurfy8, Vishamon, zindabad
DIE DIE DIE: Atogaholic
I now have a general framework from which to view the game, so expect more content and analysis from me. Aside from the occasional "why is Az declaring this person town or scum with no reasoning and making me feel dumb" I think I've successfully passed the "out of my league" hurdle, but we'll see I guess.
I now have a general framework from which to view the game, so expect more content and analysis from me. Aside from the occasional "why is Az declaring this person town or scum with no reasoning and making me feel dumb" I think I've successfully passed the "out of my league" hurdle, but we'll see I guess.
I would say so. *Nobody* Has that many well-defined reads and analysis this early in the game. Except, apparently, you.
Scarbo is VL/A according to the op.
We have 10 players in this game that have less posts than the mod, including KoolKoal who hasn't posted at all, but his VL/A should end today.
September was self aware and his vocabulary on how he says things felt off. His actions seem desperate and not helpful.
For these reasons I think he is scum.
The people that were on his wagon I think are town for gut/meta reasons.
Having people on his wagon that are town doesn't make him scum, his behavior does. If I felt uneasy about some people on his wagon it would be setting off alarms. This was not the case.
That being said, lynching him without getting a reveal day 1 is a waste.
I got the sense from the last game that that wasn't some kind of 1-off experiment. You were saying that's just how you do. Like, you didn't learn this lesson from any of your previous games ever?
No - my normal approach during RVS is to react appropriately to scummy RVS posts. The reason why I didn't do so in this game was because I tried that approach in Iji, and it didn't work out. That doesn't mean that voting based off of RVS tells is bad - rather, it means that there's a variety of ways I can approach the early game as town, and the one I went with this game isn't the same as Iji.
Quote from Axelrod »
Maybe I just think that if you are going to very deliberately do something different from what you have done before you would normally, I don't know, announce something to that effect in the thread. Like "you know guys, this wagon on Sep. It's kind of bad. I used to do that whole 'jump on someone for something unusual like self-voting' but that didn't work out too well and I no longer advocate it" etc, etc.
*shrug* - I didn't do it because I feel like it wasn't necessary.
----
@Az - Why do you think AI is scum? Like I mentioned in my reads post, he's reading fairly logical and distant, with not many windows into his mindset. I don't really see why AI's Vish vote is a scum vote.
Quote from Az »
I would say so. *Nobody* Has that many well-defined reads and analysis this early in the game. Except, apparently, you.
If you notice, I fencesitted/waffled/didn't provide a read on many players, as well. I still have a large chunk of the game to figure out.
@ZDS - Keep in mind, most of those players haven't moved past null or simply have not posted enough content.
@hawk - Thanks for the replies to the questions, but you missed one.
Quote from Prophylaxis »
2. Why didn't you vote Sepiriel if you thought if he was scum?
Work has me too busy for Mafia at the moment, and as such I am going V/LA until 3/12. I will check in when I can.
A couple quick hits while I'm here:
For those who are confident Sepiriel is town (Proph/Taredas/Azrael): There were 5 votes on him at one point. Which of those do you find most likely to come from scum? I'm especially interested in Proph's answer on this.
Also, @Proph... I very rarely vote in the early stages of a game. You should know that by now.
A bit of a stretch here, but it would not surprise me if Dkings was scum and just told us that all people on the Sepi wagon were town when it was at 5 votes. And that Proph/Az/Taredas are town too. And Sepi.
(Reason: town doesn't go and ask for analysis of small, early wagons. But scum loves that, especially when there's no scum on the wagon)
And in the process he avoids giving his own read on Sepi.
I think that wagon analysis on Sepiriel's wagon is a bit of a crapshoot because it was mostly precipitated by who was online at the time. For example, see my wagon in Iji. That one formed and disappeared very quickly.
Really? Even though almost everyone else has Rhand as strongly town?
No idea how many people actually have him as "strongly town." I admit the reason I listed him is entirely because of his interactions with 2 people who I have scumreads on, although now I think he might just be town who's too easily swayed.
Quote from Proph »
Eleven pretty low-impact posts. At the moment, I'd like to see some analysis by him, not one liners that don't contribute much. I'm bothered that he doesn't appear to be caring about his questions though.
Thanks, now I'm 100% sure you're scum
Quote from ZDS »
Re: wagons:
Between Atog and Vishamon, I'd say the case on Atog is stronger, and his OMGUSing of anyone disagreeing with him re: Proph doesn't look good. That said, once you move past the OMGUS aspect, he's actually made some arguments worth pursuing (I am purposefully not specifying which ones). As for Vishamon, I don't know what to make of his complete lack of reaction.
Lets just say there's 2 people right now who are justified in suspecting people just for voting them, and I'm one of them
Az made a nice catch in #190. I want to lynch Proph, Taredas, or AI toDay
Really? Even though almost everyone else has Rhand as strongly town?
No idea how many people actually have him as "strongly town." I admit the reason I listed him is entirely because of his interactions with 2 people who I have scumreads on, although now I think he might just be town who's too easily swayed.
Swayed by what? I was the first one to out suspicion of you.
I think that wagon analysis on Sepiriel's wagon is a bit of a crapshoot because it was mostly precipitated by who was online at the time. For example, see my wagon in Iji. That one formed and disappeared very quickly.
This gives me more cause for concern because I know dking has no problem being the main proponent of a lynch in previous games.
Thanks for the update, Sir Karn.
Taredas brings up a good point re: lynching Sepiriel today. All the more reason for *bang bang shoot shoot* N1.
unvote, vote Atog
Reasons are in my previous post + what Taredas said.
@Proph: given that you have apparently admitted to a deliberate shift in playstyle from last game to this (without saying you were going to do so in the thread) what makes my vote on you so poor? Like, if one game you make it a point to mention how you like to look for odd RVS stuff to jump on and attack - which is more or less exactly what you said last game - and then you don't do that here, instead doing what appears to be the opposite, with no explanation, wouldn't that make for a reasonable case of raised eyebrows? And then, when specifically asked about it, and then you say "well, I did notice the thing, but I'm deliberately doing it different this game because it didn't work out so well last time" - again, wouldn't that at least make for a reasonable suspicion?
I don't even care so much if you ignore the vote - but you went out of your way to characterize it as "pretty poor" so, what would you say makes it so?
I have a tendency to dislike the short, hit & run posters. Snurfy maybe being the worst atm. The "you guys post too much" cry of dismay always seems to ring false to me. I am getting the bad vibes from AI now too.
@ZDS:
I don't know how I got them confused, it just happened. But saYing I was paying less attention to them because I 'know I can't pressure them' (because they're "big name players" seems to be what you're implying) is the fattest load of bull ***** I've seen in this thread so far.
I don't care if this is your first game, or if you've been playing for 20 years, if you're scummy I'll call you out on it - and you can see me have this attitude since I've started playing mafia. It's even gotten me lynched a few times despite me being right - but I keep on it, because I think it's such garbage when old faces get a pass just for being an old face.
And I'll proudly link you multiple games if you're asking for a source.
So the rest of your case to make you vote me is:
- an rvs-era vote you don't agree with, but admit it's "fine"
- a question you think is okay, but a little late
- you don't like how I said you and prophzorz could be buddies
Fantastic case all around. You've now only changed your story twice, and have ignored quite a few shallow people, even though that's what you originally said you were voting /me/ for.
@All the non-Gruul that haven't claimed yet: please don't do it.
Especially the remaining Orzhov need to keep silent.
It is good that the abilities are public, but not good that the players having them are outed too.
Don't like this statement. What, you don't think I'll find scum if I dig into Sep?
Wrong. Proph's last couple post have had a "lol, I have no scum reads" vibe and I want to see if he'll actually commit to something
Weak defense of proph. It's early in Day 1, if he's losing motivation it wouldn't have shown by now. Plus, I happen to know he's been hyped for this game for months, if ever there was a time he'd be motivated as scum it's here
Here's the 'asking useless questions' scumtell again. Give no value to the town and trumps up your post to make it seem like it's doing something
Obviously it's because the Ghost Council showed up. I know you know this and you're just using filler
Really, you're telling me you'd rather try to clear ~15 or so players instead of finding scum? It's easier for a scum player to 'clear' a town player than scumhunt because they know they're already right and it makes them look like they;re doing something.
vote Taredas
You jumped to the defense of proph pretty fast and your post is full of scumtells
I still don't know exactly what the best thing to do is re:gruul voting, basically I think it should be fine as long as I'm careful with any large wagons
Taredas + Proph + Rhand scumteam looks probable this game
Fair enough.
Why are you asking my opinion on Vishamon when you think I'm scum? This feels like you're reacting to all of the people calling me town and hoping to switch off onto another wagon.
What do you mean? I'm taking things that didn't work in my previous game and learning from them. My RVS approach didn't work out in that game, so in this game I adopted more of a "wait and see" approach.
I pointed out that I got pressured/got flak in my previous game for overextending.
My lead on Sir Karn went nowhere because I misapplied the "tying two people together" tell that I mentioned in one of my other posts. As for Sir Karn himself, he's typically quite difficult to read for me, so my primary way to read him is via interactions or PoE. The more I play with him the more I think that Megs's strategy of ignoring him works better.
I wanted to shut down discussion of the Ghost Council immediately since it's mechanics talk we don't need on Day 1, or at all. I thought that if I didn't address it then more people would talk about it.
I like Tar's post, and I agree with his points about Togs.
Why are you advocating vigging Sepiriel when Tar mentioned that Orzhovians's alignments aren't revealed when they die?
It's "pretty poor" because, well, I'm town. To further expand on the point, you're basically just attacking me for the same reason I attacked you in Iji - for not playing the same as in a previous game.
Thank you for using your brain.
---
Hoping to do a full reread today, but willing to lynch Togs based off of his response to me + Tar's post.
Unvote ; Vote: Atogaholic
Togs, what happened to the Vish wagon you thought was "pretty promising"? Did you forget about that?
I'm not even sure. At first I was like "there are 4 guilds and the Mafia are hiding in those four, so, the Mafia already know the 'guild abilities' and we're only keeping info from the Town by not saying." And then I was like "but, wait, the Mafia aren't actually members of the guilds they are 'hiding' in - they are Dimir, right? So, maybe they don't actually know the Guild abilities and we're shooting ourselves in the foot right out the gate by saying them..." And then I was like "but, no, that's probably not how it is. They have very likely been given the same guild abilities as the Town to mask them, so it's back to what I thought originally." And in that case, it seems like hiding what Guild you are is just going to be hard.
I got the sense from the last game that that wasn't some kind of 1-off experiment. You were saying that's just how you do. Like, you didn't learn this lesson from any of your previous games ever?
Uh, I don't think I'm going to acknowledge the "it's poor because I'm Town" part of this. As for the rest, I am going to give you that this isn't something by itself I would push to lynch anyone off of. But again, you kind of brushed it off without even acknowledging you were doing something different (until Rhand asked you, I guess).
I said "almost"
Maybe I just think that if you are going to very deliberately do something different from what you have done before you would normally, I don't know, announce something to that effect in the thread. Like "you know guys, this wagon on Sep. It's kind of bad. I used to do that whole 'jump on someone for something unusual like self-voting' but that didn't work out too well and I no longer advocate it" etc, etc.
Proph is town. (Yes Atog, now I do back off. I did not drop my suspicion after that post you quoted. Read all of my posts next time you want to make an attack)
Also
unvote
vote Clan Dimir
unvote
vote Lazav
I'm pretty sure Sepiriel is male.
Are you just ignoring me?
Axelrod due to his dialogue post with Sepiriel.
I'm not sure what you're asking about ZDS.
I agree about the first post being an awkward RVS tell.
Seps' 2nd post in game reads strongly town. Exhibit A:
These first three comments are a pretty typical town-like reaction under fire.
Following that goes, on to make a fairly reasonable, if slightly tone-deaf, case on Hansanator within the same post.
Exhibit B:
Good mix of indignation and incredulity, here. I buy that Seps really disagrees with the validity of the RVS tell, that's certainly genuine. Moreover, there's an underlying confidence and coolness under fire that is another good sign.
I'm with seps on this. If anything Seps has been unusually cool and collected under fire. Rhand's read on her being scared of the lynch is probably based off nothing more than the size of her posts, rather than the actual content.
Well put.
Town!
Townietowntowntownitytowntown.
So, who's ready to let the counter-wagon begin and knock off Vishamon?
Also, the other question was also me. I found it weird that you put Sepi there and not just nowhere like all other nullreads.
I'll take another look at Vishamon. What's your take on Atog?
I have zero takes on Atog at the moment. The few posts I've seen pleased me but did not seem alignment indicative at first glance.
There's also the issue of scum potentially false-claiming Orzhov now knowing that they are unlikely to be lynched toDay. Good catch.
Really? Even though almost everyone else has Rhand as strongly town?
Upon reread, Vish's Sepiriel vote is very bad. While ZDS has a point that Vish could simply be overzealous town, I think the timing feels more like scum sensing blood in the water.
Vote Vishamon
Funny, the timing is part of why I did not switch my vote to Vishamon. The Sepiriel wagon was already falling apart at that point and didn't seem like it would get new steam.
Psych! Vishamon's town too after reread. And yours is a scum vote.
Yup.
Sure you don't.
1. Why are you assuming Sepiriel is scum based off the people who are voting him? That plays no factor on Sepiriel's alignment.
2. Why didn't you vote Sepiriel if you thought if he was scum?
3. If you thought that "claiming a guild was a good idea until Proph was against it" then why did you up and claim it in your first post anyways?
1. Why are you advocating to vig Sepiriel N1 if he won't flip on death?
His "I don't like how you backed off of Proph" to Rhand feels more mudslingy - I feel like a townie would be more inquisitive about it. Questions to Sepiriel and to Az are, as Rhand pointed out, not scumhunting. Suddenly forgets about me and goes after Vish, and as I pointed out, it's very awkward that he;'s asking me for my read on Vish if he thinks I'm scum.
He says that he's "digging into Sepiriel" but he's not digging into Sepiriel at all - just saying "work on that". Rest of his attack on Tar is mostly just theorycrafting. Scum read, for sure.
I don't have Az as a super high priority since I think he's a self resolving problem: He'll either peter out and lose motivation since I know that playing scum is exhausting for him, or he'll be nightkilled early since he's cramming lynches down scum throats. Pay attention to him if he's alive late game, but wouldn't mind trusting him early. Also inclined to trust Tar's "I think Az is town for reasons explain at this time". I can mostly follow his thought progress as well, sort of. Not lynching Day 1 anyways due to EV.
1. If you're not loving hawk where he lists out half of the playerbase as town, then why aren't you voting him?
Not worth lynching Day 1 at any rate.
1. If you call out Sepiriel and Atogaholic in that post, then why did your vote go on zindabad? What did zindabad do that was on another tier of scumminess than what you saw from Togs and Sepiriel?
1. Are you the type that likes to hold your vote? You've called out a number of players (AI, Sepiriel, Rhand) but you're not actually voting them, which reads to me like you're not taking a stance. Why?
To sum up:
UNQUESTIONABLY TOWN THUS FAR: Prophylaxis
I'M NOT COMFORTABLE WITH LYNCHING: hansanator, Sepiriel, Archmage Eternal, Azrael, Rhand, Taredas, ZeDorkSlipeur
I'M OKAY WITH LYNCHING: 7hawk77, AsianInvasion, Axelrod, Cythare, dkingsland967, KoolKoal, scarbo, Sir Karn, snurfy8, Vishamon, zindabad
DIE DIE DIE: Atogaholic
I now have a general framework from which to view the game, so expect more content and analysis from me. Aside from the occasional "why is Az declaring this person town or scum with no reasoning and making me feel dumb" I think I've successfully passed the "out of my league" hurdle, but we'll see I guess.
100% Town
Proph
Sepiriel
Town
Rhand
ZDS
Weak Town...eh?
Vishamon
Scum But I Forget Why Bc They were other people's reasons first
Atog
Obv-Scum Who Hates Being Scum and Needs Put out of his Misery
Asianinvasion
I would say so. *Nobody* Has that many well-defined reads and analysis this early in the game. Except, apparently, you.
We have 10 players in this game that have less posts than the mod, including KoolKoal who hasn't posted at all, but his VL/A should end today.
@Az: why are you not voting AI?
Right, Gruul. Never mind.
As the weekend is now over, a global prod check will happen tonight. A vote count will also probably happen.
September was self aware and his vocabulary on how he says things felt off. His actions seem desperate and not helpful.
For these reasons I think he is scum.
The people that were on his wagon I think are town for gut/meta reasons.
Having people on his wagon that are town doesn't make him scum, his behavior does. If I felt uneasy about some people on his wagon it would be setting off alarms. This was not the case.
That being said, lynching him without getting a reveal day 1 is a waste.
Outdated Mafia Stats
Outdated Mafia Stats
Someone already claimed boros, the mechanic works better if boros works together. No reason not to claim.
Outdated Mafia Stats
Outdated Mafia Stats
No - my normal approach during RVS is to react appropriately to scummy RVS posts. The reason why I didn't do so in this game was because I tried that approach in Iji, and it didn't work out. That doesn't mean that voting based off of RVS tells is bad - rather, it means that there's a variety of ways I can approach the early game as town, and the one I went with this game isn't the same as Iji.
*shrug* - I didn't do it because I feel like it wasn't necessary.
----
@Az - Why do you think AI is scum? Like I mentioned in my reads post, he's reading fairly logical and distant, with not many windows into his mindset. I don't really see why AI's Vish vote is a scum vote.
If you notice, I fencesitted/waffled/didn't provide a read on many players, as well. I still have a large chunk of the game to figure out.
@ZDS - Keep in mind, most of those players haven't moved past null or simply have not posted enough content.
@hawk - Thanks for the replies to the questions, but you missed one.
A couple quick hits while I'm here:
For those who are confident Sepiriel is town (Proph/Taredas/Azrael): There were 5 votes on him at one point. Which of those do you find most likely to come from scum? I'm especially interested in Proph's answer on this.
Also, @Proph... I very rarely vote in the early stages of a game. You should know that by now.
(Reason: town doesn't go and ask for analysis of small, early wagons. But scum loves that, especially when there's no scum on the wagon)
And in the process he avoids giving his own read on Sepi.
Really?
I think that wagon analysis on Sepiriel's wagon is a bit of a crapshoot because it was mostly precipitated by who was online at the time. For example, see my wagon in Iji. That one formed and disappeared very quickly.
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
Thanks, now I'm 100% sure you're scum
Lets just say there's 2 people right now who are justified in suspecting people just for voting them, and I'm one of them
Az made a nice catch in #190. I want to lynch Proph, Taredas, or AI toDay
I love how opportunistic this is. No mention about the Vish thing either.
More votes on Togs, please.
Atog would be a fine lynch.
I'm not sure about AI yet. From my notes I have some conflicting ideas, but he's boros and with the mechanic the way it is, the more boros the better.
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Swayed by what? I was the first one to out suspicion of you.
I would vote him harder if I could.
This gives me more cause for concern because I know dking has no problem being the main proponent of a lynch in previous games.
Outdated Mafia Stats
Outdated Mafia Stats