I'm doing a slow re-read, and the first thing that jumped out was the dichotomy of Hans' first two posts:
Post #5: Voting for No Lynch - which he will later explain (in post #97)
Basically, I am of the opinion that we are more likely to mislynch on D1, which means that a no lynch would give us more time to sort out our stuff and hunt scum for real.
But then - his second post of the game - was:
Post #16: Shamelessly bandwaggoning Sepiral. Which he continues to do for many more posts, encouraging others to follow along as well, for no more real reason than:
Speed lynches are exciting!
So, I have trouble with this. Because it reflects two completely different mindsets. The cautious vs. the reckless, just in the span of two posts. Which suggests someone who isn't really feeling what he is purporting to be feeling. And now he's replaced out and I can't quiz him on this, which is annoying.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I gave a scenario in which his behavior made sense, because I think hans is also scum, which I explicitly clarified in the immediately following point. I find it very interesting that you're so preoccupied with my opinion of you.
You think I sounded certain in 684? Because I thought I sounded suspicious. I was suspicious. I am suspicious. I am growing more suspicious.
So what do you think it means about zinda that he's not bothering to defend himself?
So, I have trouble with this. Because it reflects two completely different mindsets. The cautious vs. the reckless, just in the span of two posts. Which suggests someone who isn't really feeling what he is purporting to be feeling. And now he's replaced out and I can't quiz him on this, which is annoying.
In this post, Axelrod explains exactly one of the primary things I found so troubling about these:
Quote from Scummer McScummerson »
[u]At first[/u] I agreed with Rhand re: Sepiriel's flailing, [u]but ZDS's counterargument is also persuasive. Personally, I think Sepiriel's AtE is more indicative of an unrefined playstyle than proof of his townishness, [u]but at this point[/u] I am willing to leave him alone [u]for now[/u].
Quote from Tots Legit »
Upon reread, Vish's Sepiriel vote is [u]very bad[/u]. While ZDS has a point that [u]Vish could simply be overzealous town[/u], I think the timing feels more like [u]scum sensing blood in the water[/u].
Vote Vishamon
Quote from I Am Not a Dingo Babysitter »
[u]That's a reasonable assessment to make, but[/u] I don't think Vishamon was buying into that line of thinking based on the confident tone of his post.
Also:
Quote from Azrael »
When every time you place a vote, you feel compelled to point out that the people who disagree with you have good reason to hold a completely opposite read, that's a very good sign that you think the position you're pushing is BS.
This is what sealed it for me. In addition to all those weasel words that he's been throwing around, he then sounds inexplicably certain that he knows what Vishamon was doing, based on "the confident tone of his post". I'm not convinced in the slightest.
Quote from Azrael »
This was the first post of AI's that caught my notice. He breaks into the same scum tell pattern from his first serious vote, on Sepiriel. He states that he sees valid reasons to either vote or not vote Vishamon, with lots of waffle words, he then switches over to some very charged, accusatory language "blood in the water".
These two mindsets don't mix well. You don't often have a townie with a genuine, waffle-y mindset who on the one hand says, ZDS' point that he's overzealous town could very well be right, but who then switches gears and starts throwing around phrases like "scum sensing blood in the water".
He also qualifies that read a couple more times with weasel words "I think", and "feels more like". You then have this completely artificial mixture of a strongly worded accusatory language, with the sentiment that...eh...'I think I feel he's not simply an overzealous townie, but ZDS does have a good point there'.
Furthermore, as Rhand pointed out, the timing of the vote was AFTER the Sepiriel wagon had begun to dissipate, not before. So if the argument is based on timing, it's not well-founded.
I also dislike the description of the Sepiriel vote as "very bad". It's a weakly worded version of what should be a more strongly worded sentiment. Like, the townie version of "very bad" is something like "pretty awful", or "really horrendous". There's some teeth to it, a sense that the player is genuinely appalled. "Very bad" is kind of a limp-wristed phrase that's meant to convey that you think there's something pretty awful about the post, but doesn't carry any actual conviction behind it.
Scarbo's PBPA is barely conclusive in the Atog half and full of conspiracy theories in the Zindabad half. Apparently Zindabad knows Azrael and AI are town because he didn't like it when AI called the Gruul ability anti-town, and Hansanator and I are his scumbuddies because he talked to us directly. The timing is opportunistic as well. This might be the single scummiest post in the game so far.
Unvote, Vote: Scarbo
I still support an AI lynch, but I can't let this pass.
..........
What do you think of Scarbo's PBPA?
[/quote]
See my previous remarks regarding unconvincing PBPAs. I agree it's filled with things that aren't tells, I don't see a reason to assume that's because he's scum, rather than that he's still learning.
Axelrod:
Hansanator himself was very well aware of this contradiction, and acted like it was perfectly on purpose (whatever that purpose may have been). See 46 in particular, where he says a no lynch would be ideal but he "couldn't pass up the opportunity" to jump on a wagon (he had to know this makes no sense).
The only thing Hans has going for him is the confident tone of his posting, and his "I don't really care what you think, I do what I want" attitude. That's more a Townie mentality, even if it's not the most helpful one to have. Some people can bluff that though.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
Kinda unmotivated to finish the hawk PBPA right now, but the long and short of it is that hawk is probably bad town with an outside shot of being scum.
Can you give us the longer and less short of it, at least? (ie: why you got to this conclusion)
There are a lot of posts that rub me the wrong way, but I can also understand his mindset with regard to other points. I can put myself into his thought process without too much effort, making me think that we're the same alignment.
I did not read scarbo's longish post because it was very poorly formatted. I do recall something about the way he was consistently defending me was off-putting, like no townie should be that sure that I was not scum.
Uh, so, I think I may be rehashing something Scarbo has been saying for a long time - but which hadn't been really registering with me - but isn't this just a total lie?
Note that I don't have a scum read on Vish, nor have I had one this game.
That seemed to fly in the face of post #157, where Atog said:
Vish's wagon looks promising, I'm not a fan of the way he jumped on Sepirel in #129. It looks like he's going out of his way to misinterpret the quote
.
Atog got called out on this by Scarbo and his response was in #261
3. heh, I deliberately left the wording ambiguous to try and use him as bait. I said his wagon 'looked promising,' meaning I saw the potential to catch scum hopping onto it. (Which I did) Notice I also said he was misinterpreting a quote, which is a mistake town can make as well as scum
.
Atog is trying to claim that his post #157 was a trap. He never actually had a scum read on Vishamon, and was instead referring to the people voting for Vishamon when he said the wagon "looked promising." That appears to me to be complete BS. There is no way to interpret #157 in that light. Makes no sense at all. And his ret-con of Vish "misinterpreting a quote" from something that supported the wagon to something neutral that anyone Town or scum could do, is ridiculous.
The fact Atog is trying to twist his own prior post around to claim it was something else (possibly because a couple of prominent people - Rhand/Az - had declared that Vish looked Town to them) does not look good. And I already had reasons not to like him.
Unvote if I'm voting
Vote: Atogaholic.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
I mean, he's clearly lying. He admitted he was lying. The question is whether he's lying about his lying, or he's lying about his lying about his lying.
Or put in other words, was he lying to the scum, or was he lying to us?
I'm not particularly confident I can tell the difference between which audience he was trying to lie to, at what time. Are you?
I don't think this is a series of interactions that's easy to definitively read. You have someone how was INTENTIONALLY deceptive, intentionally secretive and artificial. In effect, you have someone who claims to have been behaving scummy on purpose.
You can reasonably disbelieve that they were doing it on purpose, but how do you exclude the possibility that it's not just some bone-headed townie trap?
This is the kind of foundation for a case where mislynch magic happens. You have both plausible townie and scum explanations for his line of play. There is an excellent chance he's just being scummy and deceptive on purpose, rather than accidentally. I would go so far as to argue this kind of townie "trap" is far more likely to be genuine, than it is to be some kind of brilliant retcon for really subpar scum play.
But even if I were to believe that the scum motivation was more likely than the townie trap motivation, I still wouldn't want to base my read off that series of interactions. Not if I could observe his "normal" line of play, sans gambits, and get a read off of that instead free of any contaminating behavioral influences like intentional lying.
Atog is someone who needs to be read further down the line. It's not like he's going to disappear off anyone's radar if we give him a pass today.
it's almost as if he's trying to mask the opportunism with humor? Idk, I'm going to sleep.
The line "Its nice to have options" sounds tacked-on and artificial. He posts this when pressure on zindabad is mounting as well - without a vote. Yeah, now that I think about it -
Unvote; Vote: KoolKoal
Let's do this.
Quote from AI »
Kinda unmotivated to finish the hawk PBPA right now, but the long and short of it is that hawk is probably bad town with an outside shot of being scum.
This is one of the reasons why I think AI is town. He just scraps the PBPA and comes with a completely different conclusion that what he had in the middle of his PBPA. Multiple people have told him that his PBPA was good, so it would be very easy for him as scum to roll with it.
Quote from Rhand »
@Proph: look at Zindabad's big post at the part where he adressed Azrael for the first time. That is the kind of linking that I am talking about when I dislike links.
You mean this?
Quote from zindabad »
This sounded like plainsight coaching. You give no credence to my attacks on AE, and neither do you commit the other way, and actually go along with his on me. The fact that in his next post he mildly goes "ok, I'll stop" (and then ceases to post at all once he is deprived of the topic of YT) makes it sound even more like scum-on-scum interaction.
Quote from ZDS »
Scarbo's PBPA is barely conclusive in the Atog half and full of conspiracy theories in the Zindabad half. Apparently Zindabad knows Azrael and AI are town because he didn't like it when AI called the Gruul ability anti-town, and Hansanator and I are his scumbuddies because he talked to us directly. The timing is opportunistic as well. This might be the single scummiest post in the game so far.
Not sure if you have the time to do this, but can you go through and pick out his PBPA quote-by-quote? I'm not really seeing the conspiracy theories in the zindabad half (I see a lot of "this is non-commital!")
This will be helpful for me because I have no read on scarbo thus far.
Quote from Cythare »
Is killjoy based on snurfy, or do you also take issue with killjoy's posts after replacing in?
killjoy's post is null. I don't get why he's scumreading someone that most of the game has declared as town, though.
Quote from Rhand »
@Proph: I think using an extension right now is a waste. We might need them when Days become shorter.
You think that we can come to a consensus on a lynch in the next three days? I think we need a extension pronto.
----
I agree with Azrael re: Togs.
@Mod: Votecount?
I would love for someone to second my deadline request, because there's no way that we're coming to consensus on a lynch by Friday.
I think it would be a profitable exercise to look back at who started panicking when Az outed the Gruul mechanic. I think I detected a hint of that from AI.
Rhand seems way more twitchy than I remember him. AI wisely made no response to my post, but Rhand popped up with "no his reaction looks town!!" before AI even had a chance to say anything. Why get involved, Rhand?
Sepiriel looks really desperate already and the game has just begun. Especially the "you have no idea how I play, we've never played together before" line is just really weak. Immediately attacking basically everyone who RVS voted you carries more than a hint of panic. But he's not the only one to be playing the meta card this early - I think I saw someone earlier post something like "that's not how I react as town" which of course is as meaningful as the sound of a rusty gate creaking in the wind.
Three lines of attack, none of which I care for. Two characterizing other players as nervous, desperate, or panicked - and he takes pains to paint them in as harsh a light as possible. But I don't recall ever seeing any evidence in his posting history that he was seriously troubled by any of these things.
This type of language usually signifies that you're concerned with manipulating other players to be suspicious of a mark, rather than pointing out something that genuinely concerns you.
The brusque dismissal of Seps' defense as nothing more than meta also rubs me the wrong way, especially since it looks very much like Seps is a townie, and in Zind's next post he wasn't able to locate the "self-meta" post he refers to here. I don't so much mind that he couldn't find it or misattributed it, but that he was so quick to be dismissive while he apparently wasn't reading overly closely is more of an issue.
OK I didn't find the self-meta quote that I thought I saw, but as I was looking back, I found these two posts:
If you really mean to let him answer on his own, then why are you even making this post? It seems like you're immediately trying to downplay the question AI asked before hans has even rolled around to seeing it (in actuality he did see it and answer it before you even posted, but the posts were only 3 minutes apart and I doubt you knew hans had already posted.)
You wrote the same post twice but in the second one there's been more added, so you reworked what you were originally saying. This suggests the response is more "crafted" than authentic. You also are trying to downplay your involvement with voting Sepiriel - of course it's a tenuous observation, the game was 20 posts old. Just spit it out and stand by your reads if you actually have them.
I don't find answering for other people to be much of a scum tell, if at all. Seems like a second instance of Zind exaggerating the severity of the activities he's addressing.
Please share that opinion about what hansanator was doing now, then, if you would.
Asking that question was a grave mistake.
Hmm. The "asking that question was a grave mistake" line is the kind of bizarrely comedic line I'd expect to see from a townie more often than a scum. Ridiculously exaggerated, but also very self-assured.
I have something now I didn't have when last I played this game: a four-month-old. So time budgeting has become a little awkward. Still, I'm in this one. Content incoming within 24 hours.
No I didn't. I said it for two reasons: to draw attention to AI's immediate response to the reveal of the Gruul mechanic as "anti-town", and to see what reaction I could draw from him on said point. You jumping in was not conducive to reason #2 being effective.
This is probably zinda being genuinely prickly about having his line of questioning botched.
A: He didn't mean to post it twice. That's the point. That's why it's a slip - he was crafting the message, working out a different (less scummy? more faux-convicted?) way to say what he wanted to say. Then he forgot to erase what he actually wanted to say. It happens. The self-spin is indicative of a scum mindset though.
B: I meant to say Proph.
He's too experienced to be trying that on, D1 or not. And I wrote it because I hate self-meta and despair at the prevalence of its use on this site.
I don't think we're hiding anything the scum don't already know. It's going to come out anyway, and soon. The mechanics look to be pretty public one way or the other.
The answer to this question can be derived from information available in the thread. But even that reason notwithstanding, I'll vote when I'm good and ready.
I can't even decide if AE is scum or not. Attacking me is a null tell for him - he does it every game without fail. I'd be a little worried if he didn't open this game with an ill-defined accusation.
The previous three posts were all about Sepiriel and/or mechanics. Then a vote on snurfy based on...what? His lack of posts? His failure to respond to a question due to lack of posts? I hate when someone goes "oh we can't lynch this guy on D1 because we'd get no information from it." If he's worth a lynch, he's worth a lynch. As far as we know, that no-reveal thing may not ever go away. Are we going to leave him and the rest of the Orzhov alone forever?
So, actually, you have nothing. I wonder how many of your posts so far in this game include my name. I'd wager above 50%, probably closer to 75%.
I think I'm liking the way Zind is dealing with AE - regarding it as null, but with exasperation.
I liked this. There was someone else who asked Azrael why he was voting now after making a fuss over Gruul not voting because of potential shenanigans with Bloodrush - I think that was Rhand. That was another good question.
Azrael's modus operandi is exactly what you have seen so far - to quietly and subtly try to set boundaries for the town, because the one who makes the rules has all the power. He's willing to let the rest of us be Ned Stark, or Robb, as you like it, and end up headless. He's either Varys or Littlefinger, depending on alignment. And neither one of those shadowy fellows thinks their own rules apply to them.
That's fantastic. Do you have anything to add?
I agree. It felt insincere and manipulative.
Answer the question. Why are you voting now after exhorting Gruul players not to vote?
It's not scummy, it's just a bad idea. In general I advocate, as Cyan termed it once, marching to the beat of your own drum. The opinions of the other players actually don't matter than much - when you're right, that kind of inexorable rightness you feel when you have somebody nailed, they'll know, and they'll follow.
I think you know better than that. We've played probably 20+ games together. I've never been replaced and I've never been particularly involved on D1. You acting like you don't know that is troubling.
Pot, kettle, black: Do you have anything other than mechanics speculation to contribute?
While I'm at it, though, here's my take on Ghost Council - I think it's a disguise for a player's votes. He PMs his votes to Meg who posts them as if Obzedat were voting. Either that, or he's a double-voter, and Obzedat votes the last person he voted (that's how I would do it. Like an afterimage voter.)
I don't think that the Orzhov are going to remain undefined forever. At some point we have to trust that Megiddo didn't make a quarter of the players permanent no-reveals, or this would just devolve into a guessing game. So if an Orzhov player is the scummiest now, I'd rather trust in the countermeasures that the host has probably built into the game to stop it from becoming Go Fish, and lynch that player, rather than giving them a pass until some unknown time at which point we might find ourselves facing a much worse situation and still being unsure about that player's alignment.
I really liked this post and dkingsland's tone.
I see no problem there. I've always separated anti-town behavior from role. I did see a problem with your PBPA, though, which read needlessly forced and tried to twist everything AI's said or done into being scummy somehow.
Ooph. Finally finished the first big analyis post. Nothing really terribly out of place here that I can see. I'd give zind enough credit for being capable of fooling me, especially in a catch-up style post, but in this post there's nothing inconsistent with a townie mentality and a number of remarks and observations that match well with a town mindset.
I'm still trying to figure out why AE hasn't figured in anyone's scumlists. He opened the game with a totally unfounded accusation against me, went "uhh, I got nothing, the meta's kinda old, I can just tell" when asked to show his evidence, and hasn't posted anything relevant since.
This take on AE is a bit less kosher. Previously we were annoyed but looking at AE as null, we're now shifting towards a more hostile bent.
I may or may not be intrinsically disposed to view AE attacks as a scum tell, given how often he used to be mislynched.
Pot, kettle, black was for me - I hadn't contributed much, but I was asking you why you hadn't contributed.
You even preface it with "useless post incoming." And it's interesting how you try to say "it's not like that was my only post", as if you had presented lots of content. Watch this space.
What did I like about dkingsland's post? Tone, mostly. I don't particularly agree with his conclusion about Rhand, as I feel Rhand is almost certain to be overzealous town, but his post felt open and honest, not crafted like half the posts in this game.
This felt...completely forced.
Are you kidding me? OK, maybe I'm biased, since I can only remember playing with you as scum, but subtle and letting everyone else do the work that you nudge them towards sounds exactly like you.
Of course you read half his posts as null, considering you PBPA'd a player who has a million posts, even including things like "V/LA #1". AI's signal-to-noise ratio practically guarantees half his posts will be devoid of content anyway. No, this attack on AI felt - and I know I've been saying this a lot in this game - planned, like it was timed to relieve pressure from Atog and amp up a weak counter-wagon on AI.
Yeah. That was to him suggesting I was going to be replaced. That's got nothing to do with my alignment. I've never been replaced, town or scum, in probably 60 games.
This seems like a different flavor of the D1 NL argument and it's just as bad. The reason not to lynch Obzedat now is that catching scum with our day periods is more important than putzing around with roles of dubious provenance that will undoubtedly become clear soon enough, and wasting a lynch on something that might not even be lynchable or actually real is a good smokescreen for scum to hide behind.
So, this was a post solely about mechanics.
And so was this as well. Any time you would like to begin posting actual content, please go ahead. FoS: Cythare.
I'm going to pass on that. All in good time.
Get better soon.
Do you reckon? See below:
He's got nothing, he admits it, and chalks that up to the meta being old. So why make the accusation in the first place? It is only in that post, where he admits the meta argument that he actually voted me for back in 148 does not exist, that he makes something else up about a bus on AI or some nonsense. So if you voted me for the "exact same reason" that AE did, viz. nonexistent meta, then you must be as scum as he is. FoS: scarbo.
He hasn't just been on the periphery this game, he's been so far off it that he has one foot in a different game. The fixation on me gives him something to talk about to look as if he's contributing.
Three people brought up as possible lynch candidates, none of whom you've done any legwork on.
I've contributed more in one post than you have this whole game. Guessing you missed that one, probably because you aren't reading. Nice attempt to deflect onto AI though. Let's talk about you and how you haven't done anything all game.
58: Guild claims Boros. 70: Calling hawk scum with Proph (who he hasn't said a word about, naturally.) 81: Accusation against Rhand as well. Notice how both this post and 70 are rhetorical questions meant not to elicit an actual response but to just call the target scum. 108: We're off on the zindabad train. A naked vote on YT. 148: Straight barn on Az re: Vishamon, justifies his naked vote on me with meta, but then can't support that meta with an example when asked. 224: Chalks up his vote on me to "something I remember" and "how quiet he's been." He actually has nothing. Now he's suggesting a me-AI scumteam based on...saying exactly nothing about AI so far. 266: Peripheral mechanics question @hawk. 307: Backs the Gruul choice not to vote (why wouldn't he, his scumbuddy Az is one of them), straight barns Proph re: AI, and accuses me of "hiding." To review, this is the same Proph he called scum in his second post with no justification but hasn't said a word about since, and the same AI that he's now called scum twice based on absolutely nothing. 422: Needs to catch up. 462: And we're back where we started - you covering your own lack of evidence and content with attacks on me. Discounting 422, which was basically a "I'm here" post, 5 of your 9 posts have been attacking me. You see where I get the idea of you being a reverse jinn from.
So, when are you going to contribute anything other than barns and unfounded attacks? Your move.
Ok, well this post answered one of my outstanding questions, which was why Zind thought my AI PBPA was slanted. He took a number of things that I considered very weak points, such as noting the number of VLAs from AI, and presumed that I was pointing them out as elements worthy of serious consideration.
No, not so much. I'm describing what was there. If I think it's something that should be taken seriously, I'll tell you so.
I enjoy that the phrase "dubious provenance" worked its way into a mafia game, on a completely unrelated note. Overall, mindset is tracking well in this 2nd catchup post. I can see where how his reads are seamlessly tying into one another, like how he evolved from being suspicious of AI, to seeing the hands of the scum on his wagon, and getting cold feet, and seeing supposed artificiality tells from people on AI's wagon (such as me) reinforcing those views.
If it's a faked mindset, it's pretty self-consistent.
(Compare this post to my opener - they're pretty much the same, both of us making a comment that vaguely implicates someone and encourages pressure on them without volunteering to actually do anything.)
I don't think he's been particularly town. It's the amount of scumzillas falling over themselves to make him the #1 lynch target that make me want to stay well away from him. I've seen snakes that were less bent than Az's pbpa on him, he's got obvscum AE trying to force a link between the two of us on no evidence whatsoever, and now he has lurkers jumping on his wagon as well.
Sorry for the triple post. When I'm previewing I'm not seeing half the posts in the thread it seems.
Is AE literally ever going to make a post in this thread that is not about me?
You have presented absolutely nothing and you continue to do so. You aren't even trying to engage me, either - you're nibbling around the edges, ignoring my posts while trying to get others to comment on me. Posting about me is giving you a reason to plainsight lurk. Change the record and let's hear something about someone whose name doesn't start with z.
Every post Zinda is making can be clearly tied to previous stances he's taken.
Yeah, this was kind of a fence-sit on Az's pbpa. You vaguely seem to sort of acknowledge that it was slanted, maybe, but that doesn't necessarily make him scum. Actually when I re-read it, it looks like a classic fence-sit.
hansanator was under pressure, disappeared, and now reappears with a naked vote on the hot wagon. What other interpretation am I supposed to make of that?
I'm still waiting to hear any explanation beyond the vaguest of reasons as to why you even have those preferences. Are those the only people you have any interest in? Is it a coincidence that they are the only ones (not really hawk) that have been discussed as major wagons since like page 4?
What are your thoughts on AE, Rhand, hansanator, Taredas, and ZDS?
I think you are misunderstanding a line of my pbpa of AE. It was Archmage Eternal who tried to create a scum linkage between you and Proph, in this post, despite never saying a word about you or Proph up to that point.
PPE: 11/15 of AE's posts have now been about me. Discounting the first 3, which were all made before I had even posted in the thread, we're looking at 11 out of his last 12 posts being about me.
I'm re-quoting this because I don't think I have ever received an acknowledgement from you that the player you accused was in fact AE, and not yours truly, as I pointed out in post 550.
I look forward to this with great anticipation. (Spoiler: I doubt I am ever going to see it.)
This sounded like plainsight coaching. You give no credence to my attacks on AE, and neither do you commit the other way, and actually go along with his on me. The fact that in his next post he mildly goes "ok, I'll stop" (and then ceases to post at all once he is deprived of the topic of YT) makes it sound even more like scum-on-scum interaction.
1. I didn't say you were fence-sitting on AI. That's actually about the only thing of any conviction you've posted all game. Everything else has been milder as milk. I'm saying you're fence-sitting on saying whether Az's pbpa was slanted or not. You seem to acknowledge that he posts pbpas that are flawed, but make no comment on whether this particular one was, and/or any implications for his alignment.
2. Yes, considering that was the only time he was active all game, that is the time I meant. Of course he didn't care. He didn't post for days after he was questioned. I'm still very interested in him and I don't love how you tried to downplay him.
You are to AI as AE is to me. Stop it.
All of those reads except the Rhand one sound totally made up. I think you are scum. At the very least, you aren't reading, and the entire theme of your posts today has been a peripheral nibbling-round-the-edges, waiting for something to happen instead of making anything happen yourself.FoS: Cythare.
Who falsified anything? First of all, I didn't even commit to anything in what I said - I said I "thought" I detected a "hint of panic" from AI after the Gruul mechanic was revealed, and I was basing that off of how he immediately labeled it an anti-town mechanic. So what exactly could I have "falsified" in that statement? That is a classic misrep. You are trying to make a post where I was obviously baiting AI into some incredible scum slip because it's literally all you have. You haven't even engaged anything else I've said. You refused to respond to any of my posts about you. The truth is that you do not want to engage me, because I have taken you apart so many times that I can't even remember them all and you know it, but you need something to post about, and "everyone knows" (from meta that is 5 years old and you literally do not even remember) that you caught me that one time and have been "dining out" on it, so to speak, for probably 10 games or more now.
Can't wait to see what content you will come up with now that you're supposedly finding other things to post about.
Still waiting for you to produce anything of relevance. The AI wagon isn't happening. Your next move is...?
He...didn't back them up. He mentioned the name of a game. Do you know what happened in that game? FoS: ZeDorkSlipeur
The Atog wagon is also going nowhere. It might be time for some fresh ideas.
No, no, I think I'd like to hear it from you. Do tell.
Then interrogate me. First it's Azrael with "I'd support looking into zin tomorrow" and now you with "it makes him worth interrogating." You both know you have nothing. Why even say this then? To encourage people to swing at me? Not to mention you just told AE that he should lay off me. So which is it? If I'm "worth interrogating", then why should AE leave off? He should keep going until he shakes something loose...except you know that isn't going to happen, and he's just making himself look bad, so you're calling him off while nebulously stating that I deserve pressure. Right then. Pressure me. Let's have it. Same challenge I gave to Azrael.
Read: Nobody bought it, but his miserable behavior is enough to invite attacks from gullible townies, so there might still be some legs in the wagon.
Read: He's a good punching bag to be kept around for later when we need another mislynch.
He did, but not kill-joy. You didn't even know snurfy had been replaced? Are you reading this game? FoS: Azrael.
Still waiting for Cythare to do...anything, actually. And I know he's been V/LA, but in 25 posts I think I've seen absolutely nothing to recommend him.
Main thing you can pick up from Zinda's posting as a possible tell is the unrelenting negativity. He criticizes a lot of people, fairly heavily. However, this, I think, is not unusual for Zindabad. And the events that are triggering it, other than some of the early posts I pointed out, seem to be understandable, if not altogether convincing.
Yes. You, Rhand, dkings, Axelrod, AI (more by dint of his attackers), and Sepiriel. The latter two I'm considering useless at this point.
I also agree that there is barely anything to go on in the smurfy/killjoy direction at the moment. A better alternative to Atog/AI would be obvscum AE, who I already cased to absolutely no reaction from him or anyone else. If that doesn't happen I'd like to see Cythare lynched.
Scarbo, that wasn't even worth responding to. You can't even keep AI and AE straight. Come back when you have something worth my time.
@AE: That bit about tunnelling was obviously a contrived attempt to make yourself look town because a few other players have stated your meta is to tunnel. If you were really tunneling you'd never leave off whether I "fussed" or not. Pathetic attempt to backtrack.
Here's what AE said that I commented on: "It's a decidedly anti-town clan ability." You would know that if you were making even a token attempt to research what you post.
That should be AI, not AE, in my last sentence (which is ironic because I just pointed out how scarbo can't keep the two of them straight, but hey.)
Nothing else of note in these remaining posts either.
Summary as I run out the door to Kung Fu:
Zinda is being Zinda. I don't see any concrete reasons to believe he's scum, if anything, I see a number of weak town tells in his posts. He's solidly in the category of players that I write off as town until I've run out of other places to look. Which is much less menacing than it sounds, I promise. *twirls mustaches*
I mean, he's clearly lying. He admitted he was lying. The question is whether he's lying about his lying, or he's lying about his lying about his lying.
Or put in other words, was he lying to the scum, or was he lying to us?
I'm not particularly confident I can tell the difference between which audience he was trying to lie to, at what time. Are you?
This is a bit hand-wavey from you, Az. I mean, this is the name of the game. It's what we do. And you're not entirely accurate here.
I don't think this is a series of interactions that's easy to definitively read. You have someone how was INTENTIONALLY deceptive, intentionally secretive and artificial. In effect, you have someone who claims to have been behaving scummy on purpose.
You can reasonably disbelieve that they were doing it on purpose, but how do you exclude the possibility that it's not just some bone-headed townie trap?
Well, what makes me question in the first instance, is that there is nothing - and I mean nothing - to suggest that this was in any way a "trap" that Atog was trying to set. You absolutely cannot read that from what he posted. Not at the time and not looking back later. It just doesn't exist. The post he made about Vish. where he said the wagon looked promising, was about as innocuous as they come. If it was a "trap"-type post, I would have expected something a lot stronger. To encourage the scum to hop on behind. What he posted wasn't going to do that.
And, the other thing, Atog is now saying he wasn't even "trapping" by lying about his opinion - which could have made at least a slight amount of sense - he was "trapping" by being vague and misleading. He posts that the wagon looks "promising," leading people to believe he thinks Vish is suspicious, but what he secretly means (he now claims) is that it was promising because of the people who were voting for Vish. That's not a trap. That's not even lying, technically. It's being misleading with your wording. This is what he now claims. But reading in context, that's hard to swallow. Even aside from the fact that, if true, there's no angle here for a Townie.
And he didn't even admit it? He never came out and said, this is what he was doing, until he got caught in the inconsistency by Scarbo. Then he says this BS thing. That looks like a classic ret-con.
This is the kind of foundation for a case where mislynch magic happens. You have both plausible townie and scum explanations for his line of play. There is an excellent chance he's just being scummy and deceptive on purpose, rather than accidentally. I would go so far as to argue this kind of townie "trap" is far more likely to be genuine, than it is to be some kind of brilliant retcon for really subpar scum play.
Again, where's the trap, and when did he spring it?
But even if I were to believe that the scum motivation was more likely than the townie trap motivation, I still wouldn't want to base my read off that series of interactions. Not if I could observe his "normal" line of play, sans gambits, and get a read off of that instead free of any contaminating behavioral influences like intentional lying.
Thing is, that's not the only strike against him. He's also played the "I'm low-hanging fruit" card. Which is a bit weird, in that, he seemed to be saying that he expected the scum to go after him as an easy target, but he apparently also thought that he would get scum to jump on Vishamon by pretending to support that wagon?
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
2. Hans never claimed Gruul (which Huntzilla did) despite Azrael making a pretty good case that all Gruul players should claim. I actually dislike this quite a bit, as keeping that hidden makes a lot of sense from a scum mindset.
So then why in the world would I out it so easily if I were scum?
Note: I see that Proph requested an extension. As the rules state, at least two people have to request it for one to be granted. Given that we have had two replacements and that the deadline is on Friday, I wouldn't be opposed to granting an extension. But you can probably do it. Fighting!
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
The first takes self-consciousness to the max, and the second is the Stormbind-from-Hats tell. I can get behind lynching one of these two if everyone else is against lynching Hawk. Huntzilla replaced hansanator, right? I might reread him today.
IMO we're suffering from a LOT of tunneling right now. At least half the players in the game (myself included) have been tunneling hard for most of the day. Anyone who is pushing a lynch that isn't viable needs to stop and re-assess.
Man, I am not even allowed one RVS-esque line subbing into the game...? You are taking this a little seriously.
It strikes me as off that Huntzilla is so fixated on defense even when there's no vote currently on him, and he still needs to catch up. Might just be him newbing it up, though.
Protip everyone in the Gruul clan should hop on the Sepiriel wagon.
He didnt clap but this was his way of letting you all know he was Gruul. I cant say it was good, but if you go back and read page 1 you will see it was obvious Hansa was hinting at his Gruulness...
Dkings trying to potray Hansa as hiding information makes Dkings a LIAR.
@Proph,
I was working up to this revelation.
(Had to remove a bunch of non latin for this to post)
This is a bit hand-wavey from you, Az. I mean, this is the name of the game. It's what we do. And you're not entirely accurate here.
Well, what makes me question in the first instance, is that there is nothing - and I mean nothing - to suggest that this was in any way a "trap" that Atog was trying to set. You absolutely cannot read that from what he posted. Not at the time and not looking back later. It just doesn't exist. The post he made about Vish. where he said the wagon looked promising, was about as innocuous as they come. If it was a "trap"-type post, I would have expected something a lot stronger. To encourage the scum to hop on behind. What he posted wasn't going to do that.
And, the other thing, Atog is now saying he wasn't even "trapping" by lying about his opinion - which could have made at least a slight amount of sense - he was "trapping" by being vague and misleading. He posts that the wagon looks "promising," leading people to believe he thinks Vish is suspicious, but what he secretly means (he now claims) is that it was promising because of the people who were voting for Vish. That's not a trap. That's not even lying, technically. It's being misleading with your wording. This is what he now claims. But reading in context, that's hard to swallow. Even aside from the fact that, if true, there's no angle here for a Townie.
And he didn't even admit it? He never came out and said, this is what he was doing, until he got caught in the inconsistency by Scarbo. Then he says this BS thing. That looks like a classic ret-con.
Again, where's the trap, and when did he spring it?
Thing is, that's not the only strike against him. He's also played the "I'm low-hanging fruit" card. Which is a bit weird, in that, he seemed to be saying that he expected the scum to go after him as an easy target, but he apparently also thought that he would get scum to jump on Vishamon by pretending to support that wagon?
The "trap" is that when enough townies support a wagon, the scum feel confident in pursuing it.
*frown* I'm a little uncomfortable defending him so strongly when I see the viability of the ret-con angle as well as you do, but I get uncomfortable with the idea that he's dumb enough as scum to lie about what his stances were for essentially no reason (like, why not just say you messed up, as scum? Isn't that an unforced error?), yet also smart enough as scum to make several posts afterwards in a row explaining his entire posting history through that lens.
To me, the simplest explanation is inexperienced townie, straight up, rather than unevenly playing scum who's both punting one hand, but also fairly creative and slick in tying in his retcon to his past posts the next minute we see him, at the supposed retcon stage.
As Napoleon put it, "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." In this case, I'd rather stick with an order of simple incompetence rather than a curious mix of both malice, cunning, and incompetence, and wait to see what turns up in his record next.
To me, the simplest explanation is inexperienced townie, straight up, rather than unevenly playing scum who's both punting one hand, but also fairly creative and slick in tying in his retcon to his past posts the next minute we see him, at the supposed retcon stage.
To me, he seems less slick and creative, and more grasping at thin air - the "You've fallen into my trap!" line seems hollow, and the fact that he over-explains it in a manner that does not feel genuine makes it hard for me to take him at face value. I feel like he's either scum trying (poorly) to explain away scummy behavior, or town acting scummy in order to explain away acting scummy.
In this case, I would not invoke the Napoleon quote you used, but rather Occam's Razor. Town lying about lying in order to negate scum points seems less plausible than scum lying about lying to try and avoid being lynched.
Az, since you seemed to find nothing out of place with zind's posts and I seemed to find nothing but, what do you think is the town mentality behind the shift from his complete null read on AE to "why does no one scum read AE" to "obvscum AE?"
Hello Everyone,
Will be slow going on the catch up, but I will get there by the end of the week. I was following by reading, but not in depth.
I also will remind everyone that I am Gruul and will not be voting right away. From where I was sitting just following along I remember being on board with the AI wagon. But, I will read more closely and get back to you all.
And before you ask, AI, like you did in #606 to KJ, no, I am not scum.
With Huntzilla claiming Gruul (bringing us up to four claimed Gruul), it's time to explain why I wanted any unclaimed Gruul to claim earlier. (Though in retrospect, considering how easy the Gruul ability is to test for I'm not sure why I bothered? Oh well.)
I'm assuming that the Mafia not only know what the clan abilities are but *have access to them*. Partially that's because the Mafia would be too easy to PoE out if they couldn't have clan abilities (given that Bloodrush is easily provable in thread and Boros is potentially provable if/when people start claiming targets), partially that's because Immortal Servitude makes more sense if the Mafia can have access to it (it's possible that Megiddo designed Immortal Servitude about tension over whether a player who didn't alignment flip was Orzhov or scum with an alignment-hiding ability, but *only* if guilds aren't revealed on death, and Occam's Razor and the other two mechanics suggest otherwise).
Given that, for game balance reasons it is likely that there are exactly three Gruul town (almost certainly no more than four) and almost certainly no more than one Gruul Mafioso. Four Gruul town is *possible*, but I think it's only possible if there's a fifth, Mafia Gruul as well - a four-man all-town Gruul group would be roughly equivalent to a quadruple voter, and that's difficult to balance even in a 20-player game. Two Gruul town is possible, but I don't think it's terribly likely at 20 players? A Gruul neutral is also possible, even probable if there's a fifth Gruul.
(Corollary: Gruul is the most likely guild to be smaller than average, by a sizeable margin.)
That's been guiding my play for most of the Day - I find Atog and snurfy/Killjoy scummy in a vacuum and Zindabad questionable (and it's even worse now - my early town read on hans/Huntzilla is shot given hans's "big post" and not claiming Gruul explicitly), but... at most two of them are scum, and that's only if there's an anti-town neutral.
More shortly, pushing this out now to avoid a prod.
Az, since you seemed to find nothing out of place with zind's posts and I seemed to find nothing but, what do you think is the town mentality behind the shift from his complete null read on AE to "why does no one scum read AE" to "obvscum AE?"
I'm guessing it's what he was complaining about repeatedly - lack of content about other players, which after multiple complaints from Zinda, failed to change.
Mini Prod Watch
I didn't do a full activity check. I just looked at those on the previous prod watch. None of those players are in danger of being prodded. Don't get complacent, though!
A deadline extension has been requested. As I suggested, I think it's appropriate to grant this given the game state and the two recent replacements.
Deadline extension A has been used. It is no longer available for this game.
More shortly, pushing this out now to avoid a prod.
I'm glad you said this, because this post contributed nothing of worth.
I would like for you to explain your vote in this post, as well as provide your strongest town read.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I have no problem with the KK wagon, if its needed to move the wagon along or to finalize it i will shift my vote there, knowing that he is in the AI wagon also gives me misgivings on my opinion of AI (although to be honest i have been slowly shifting that opinion on my head the more i consider things based on prior experience).
/unvote
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
Partially that's because the Mafia would be too easy to PoE out if they couldn't have clan abilities (given that Bloodrush is easily provable in thread and Boros is potentially provable if/when people start claiming targets)
Um, do you know what the Boros ability is? How do you know how "provable" it is?
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
*frown* I'm a little uncomfortable defending him so strongly when I see the viability of the ret-con angle as well as you do, but I get uncomfortable with the idea that he's dumb enough as scum to lie about what his stances were for essentially no reason (like, why not just say you messed up, as scum? Isn't that an unforced error?), yet also smart enough as scum to make several posts afterwards in a row explaining his entire posting history through that lens.
I have to go back and look at the sequence again, but what I remember are posts where both Rhand and yourself declared Vish looked Town and that AI then looked scummy for his opportunistic support of a Vish wagon. Your post in particular - the one where you said "psyche" (which was #190) - almost made it look like YOU were trapping. It seems like Atog may have seen that and been trying to find a way to avoid getting thrown in the same category as AI. Hence his comeback in #253 saying he really never had a scum read on Vish at all.
Atog even appeared to be trying to buddy you up in #208. He said you made a nice "catch" of AI. But this was before he came out and claimed he was essentially trying to do the exact same thing. That makes zero sense also. Looks to me like he got scared that you had laid a trap that he himself had fallen into, and was furiously backpedaling to try and make it appear like he never actually fell into it to begin with. Which is ironic because I don't see where you were actually laying any kind of trap to begin with, but he clearly read it like you were trapping, and tried to flatter you for it.
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Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
@ZDS: It's not so much that I gave up on the hawk PBPA because I couldn't make a compelling case, but more that other people became scummy enough that I didn't think hawk could realistically get lynched by deadline. Then I reconsidered the conviction of my read and realized that hawk and I have been playing similarly in some regards, despite my intense dislike of his current fly-by playstyle.
@hawk: You need to start explaining all of your votes. This isn't RVS any more.
*frown* I'm a little uncomfortable defending him so strongly when I see the viability of the ret-con angle as well as you do, but I get uncomfortable with the idea that he's dumb enough as scum to lie about what his stances were for essentially no reason (like, why not just say you messed up, as scum? Isn't that an unforced error?), yet also smart enough as scum to make several posts afterwards in a row explaining his entire posting history through that lens.
I have to go back and look at the sequence again, but what I remember are posts where both Rhand and yourself declared Vish looked Town and that AI then looked scummy for his opportunistic support of a Vish wagon. Your post in particular - the one where you said "psyche" (which was #190) - almost made it look like YOU were trapping. It seems like Atog may have seen that and been trying to find a way to avoid getting thrown in the same category as AI. Hence his comeback in #253 saying he really never had a scum read on Vish at all.
Atog even appeared to be trying to buddy you up in #208. He said you made a nice "catch" of AI. But this was before he came out and claimed he was essentially trying to do the exact same thing. That makes zero sense also. Looks to me like he got scared that you had laid a trap that he himself had fallen into, and was furiously backpedaling to try and make it appear like he never actually fell into it to begin with. Which is ironic because I don't see where you were actually laying any kind of trap to begin with, but he clearly read it like you were trapping, and tried to flatter you for it.
There is context early game of why sep play is scummy and that last post was terrible.
If she was town she would have voted KK instead of saying, well if we're gonna lynch Kk, then I guess I'll vote him But only if other people think it's the right thing to do.
It would be one thing of she said that while still voting someone else but she unvotes and isn't voting anyone.
I was just going to put the first line but then I realized belittling is a great way to piss people off without being useful, so let's not get caught up on that line.
There is context early game of why sep play is scummy and that last post was terrible.
You mean the context where you said people you read as town are voting me therefore i must be scum?
If she was town she would have voted KK instead of saying, well if we're gonna lynch Kk, then I guess I'll vote him But only if other people think it's the right thing to do.
It would be one thing of she said that while still voting someone else but she unvotes and isn't voting anyone.
So yeah basically you didnt like my unvoting and then not immediately placing it on KK thats it, so much for you 'prior context'.
And then your quick snappy follow up post, you like merry go rounds dont you?
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
I was just going to put the first line but then I realized belittling is a great way to piss people off without being useful, so let's not get caught up on that line.
Good to see you are taking your own advise to heart.
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Quote from »
Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
Doesn't matter if I belittle scum, you aren't useful to me winning the game. Also you dismissed my argument instead of explaining your motivation for your actions Which shows trying to talk to you is useless Regardless of your alignment.
I'm starting to distrust Az.
@Az: please exain how the attack Zindabad made on me early game comes from town.
@Proph: yes.
Town who's playing to his frustrations instead of his better judgment. Upset that you interfered with his line of questioning. Pretty much the initial reason town-Iso blew a gasket with me in Cross-town 3 and wouldn't unvote for most of the day.
I have to go back and look at the sequence again, but what I remember are posts where both Rhand and yourself declared Vish looked Town and that AI then looked scummy for his opportunistic support of a Vish wagon. Your post in particular - the one where you said "psyche" (which was #190) - almost made it look like YOU were trapping. It seems like Atog may have seen that and been trying to find a way to avoid getting thrown in the same category as AI. Hence his comeback in #253 saying he really never had a scum read on Vish at all.
Atog even appeared to be trying to buddy you up in #208. He said you made a nice "catch" of AI. But this was before he came out and claimed he was essentially trying to do the exact same thing. That makes zero sense also. Looks to me like he got scared that you had laid a trap that he himself had fallen into, and was furiously backpedaling to try and make it appear like he never actually fell into it to begin with. Which is ironic because I don't see where you were actually laying any kind of trap to begin with, but he clearly read it like you were trapping, and tried to flatter you for it.
You may very well be right. I hadn't thought of my "psyche" potentially being the impetus for his backpedal. But I still would rather find another target for today and refrain from drawing conclusions based on that interaction alone. I want more data on him.
Amusing then you dont belittle yourself more often in your posting.
you aren't useful to me winning the game.
Of course I'm not, your entire win condition revolves around eliminating town.
Also you dismissed my argument instead of explaining your motivation for your actions Which shows trying to talk to you is useless Regardless of your alignment.
pot to kettle really, since your entire early play consisted of snappy single liners that had no context, explanation or reasoning.
You want reasons? fine, I explained why i unvoted, i have mulled and reviewed my interactions with AI and the more time passes the more i realize its similar to a prior game we had.
Why am i not immediately humping the KK wagon? Simple I agree with the premise that KK's posting is horribly scummy, hell when he dry humped your vote on me it was even worse, yet i am not going to start flinging votes around right now, i have no real reason behind it, i just dont want to, if we reach town concensus that KK is the lynch i have no problem moving there but otherwise mechanically speaking my vote is meaningless since we can achieve Lynch wihout it no problem, yeah i have no other real reason, and i honestly dont care how you view it, but then again you yourself dnt care about it, all you are looking for is to push for a wagon that results in no information at end of day, because thats what benefits YOUR win con.
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Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
@Atog: that isn't what I said either.
@Proph: I think using an extension right now is a waste. We might need them when Days become shorter.
Post #5: Voting for No Lynch - which he will later explain (in post #97)
But then - his second post of the game - was:
Post #16: Shamelessly bandwaggoning Sepiral. Which he continues to do for many more posts, encouraging others to follow along as well, for no more real reason than:
So, I have trouble with this. Because it reflects two completely different mindsets. The cautious vs. the reckless, just in the span of two posts. Which suggests someone who isn't really feeling what he is purporting to be feeling. And now he's replaced out and I can't quiz him on this, which is annoying.
You think I sounded certain in 684? Because I thought I sounded suspicious. I was suspicious. I am suspicious. I am growing more suspicious.
So what do you think it means about zinda that he's not bothering to defend himself?
In this post, Axelrod explains exactly one of the primary things I found so troubling about these:
Also:
Unvote, Vote: Scarbo
I still support an AI lynch, but I can't let this pass.
..........
What do you think of Scarbo's PBPA?
[/quote]
See my previous remarks regarding unconvincing PBPAs. I agree it's filled with things that aren't tells, I don't see a reason to assume that's because he's scum, rather than that he's still learning.
Unvote, Vote: AI.
Zinda analysis is next on the agenda, but when I get NK'd, I'm reserving my triumphant I told you so for the record.
The only thing Hans has going for him is the confident tone of his posting, and his "I don't really care what you think, I do what I want" attitude. That's more a Townie mentality, even if it's not the most helpful one to have. Some people can bluff that though.
So what? If KK is scum let him bus his buddy.
Unvote
Vote Zindabad.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
There are a lot of posts that rub me the wrong way, but I can also understand his mindset with regard to other points. I can put myself into his thought process without too much effort, making me think that we're the same alignment.
I did not read scarbo's longish post because it was very poorly formatted. I do recall something about the way he was consistently defending me was off-putting, like no townie should be that sure that I was not scum.
We agree!
[/cheapshot]
Atog claimed in #253:
That seemed to fly in the face of post #157, where Atog said:
.
Atog got called out on this by Scarbo and his response was in #261
.
Atog is trying to claim that his post #157 was a trap. He never actually had a scum read on Vishamon, and was instead referring to the people voting for Vishamon when he said the wagon "looked promising." That appears to me to be complete BS. There is no way to interpret #157 in that light. Makes no sense at all. And his ret-con of Vish "misinterpreting a quote" from something that supported the wagon to something neutral that anyone Town or scum could do, is ridiculous.
The fact Atog is trying to twist his own prior post around to claim it was something else (possibly because a couple of prominent people - Rhand/Az - had declared that Vish looked Town to them) does not look good. And I already had reasons not to like him.
Unvote if I'm voting
Vote: Atogaholic.
Or put in other words, was he lying to the scum, or was he lying to us?
I'm not particularly confident I can tell the difference between which audience he was trying to lie to, at what time. Are you?
I don't think this is a series of interactions that's easy to definitively read. You have someone how was INTENTIONALLY deceptive, intentionally secretive and artificial. In effect, you have someone who claims to have been behaving scummy on purpose.
You can reasonably disbelieve that they were doing it on purpose, but how do you exclude the possibility that it's not just some bone-headed townie trap?
This is the kind of foundation for a case where mislynch magic happens. You have both plausible townie and scum explanations for his line of play. There is an excellent chance he's just being scummy and deceptive on purpose, rather than accidentally. I would go so far as to argue this kind of townie "trap" is far more likely to be genuine, than it is to be some kind of brilliant retcon for really subpar scum play.
But even if I were to believe that the scum motivation was more likely than the townie trap motivation, I still wouldn't want to base my read off that series of interactions. Not if I could observe his "normal" line of play, sans gambits, and get a read off of that instead free of any contaminating behavioral influences like intentional lying.
Atog is someone who needs to be read further down the line. It's not like he's going to disappear off anyone's radar if we give him a pass today.
Unvote; Vote: KoolKoal
Let's do this.
This is one of the reasons why I think AI is town. He just scraps the PBPA and comes with a completely different conclusion that what he had in the middle of his PBPA. Multiple people have told him that his PBPA was good, so it would be very easy for him as scum to roll with it.
You mean this?
Not sure if you have the time to do this, but can you go through and pick out his PBPA quote-by-quote? I'm not really seeing the conspiracy theories in the zindabad half (I see a lot of "this is non-commital!")
This will be helpful for me because I have no read on scarbo thus far.
killjoy's post is null. I don't get why he's scumreading someone that most of the game has declared as town, though.
You think that we can come to a consensus on a lynch in the next three days? I think we need a extension pronto.
----
I agree with Azrael re: Togs.
@Mod: Votecount?
I would love for someone to second my deadline request, because there's no way that we're coming to consensus on a lynch by Friday.
Null.
Three lines of attack, none of which I care for. Two characterizing other players as nervous, desperate, or panicked - and he takes pains to paint them in as harsh a light as possible. But I don't recall ever seeing any evidence in his posting history that he was seriously troubled by any of these things.
This type of language usually signifies that you're concerned with manipulating other players to be suspicious of a mark, rather than pointing out something that genuinely concerns you.
The brusque dismissal of Seps' defense as nothing more than meta also rubs me the wrong way, especially since it looks very much like Seps is a townie, and in Zind's next post he wasn't able to locate the "self-meta" post he refers to here. I don't so much mind that he couldn't find it or misattributed it, but that he was so quick to be dismissive while he apparently wasn't reading overly closely is more of an issue.
I don't find answering for other people to be much of a scum tell, if at all. Seems like a second instance of Zind exaggerating the severity of the activities he's addressing.
Hmm. The "asking that question was a grave mistake" line is the kind of bizarrely comedic line I'd expect to see from a townie more often than a scum. Ridiculously exaggerated, but also very self-assured.
Ok.
lol
Townish remark.
This is probably zinda being genuinely prickly about having his line of questioning botched.
In reference to AI's Vishamon vote for "sensing blood in the water". Quite apt.
Wish there better follow up, but what can you do.
I think I'm liking the way Zind is dealing with AE - regarding it as null, but with exasperation.
Ooph. Finally finished the first big analyis post. Nothing really terribly out of place here that I can see. I'd give zind enough credit for being capable of fooling me, especially in a catch-up style post, but in this post there's nothing inconsistent with a townie mentality and a number of remarks and observations that match well with a town mindset.
This take on AE is a bit less kosher. Previously we were annoyed but looking at AE as null, we're now shifting towards a more hostile bent.
I may or may not be intrinsically disposed to view AE attacks as a scum tell, given how often he used to be mislynched.
Ok, well this post answered one of my outstanding questions, which was why Zind thought my AI PBPA was slanted. He took a number of things that I considered very weak points, such as noting the number of VLAs from AI, and presumed that I was pointing them out as elements worthy of serious consideration.
No, not so much. I'm describing what was there. If I think it's something that should be taken seriously, I'll tell you so.
I enjoy that the phrase "dubious provenance" worked its way into a mafia game, on a completely unrelated note. Overall, mindset is tracking well in this 2nd catchup post. I can see where how his reads are seamlessly tying into one another, like how he evolved from being suspicious of AI, to seeing the hands of the scum on his wagon, and getting cold feet, and seeing supposed artificiality tells from people on AI's wagon (such as me) reinforcing those views.
If it's a faked mindset, it's pretty self-consistent.
Null.
Fine, or pro-town in this particular iteration.
Fine.
Fine.
Again, self-consistent.
Every post Zinda is making can be clearly tied to previous stances he's taken.
Nothing out of place here.
Main thing you can pick up from Zinda's posting as a possible tell is the unrelenting negativity. He criticizes a lot of people, fairly heavily. However, this, I think, is not unusual for Zindabad. And the events that are triggering it, other than some of the early posts I pointed out, seem to be understandable, if not altogether convincing.
Nothing else of note in these remaining posts either.
Summary as I run out the door to Kung Fu:
Zinda is being Zinda. I don't see any concrete reasons to believe he's scum, if anything, I see a number of weak town tells in his posts. He's solidly in the category of players that I write off as town until I've run out of other places to look. Which is much less menacing than it sounds, I promise. *twirls mustaches*
I asked for help in the tech forum and hopefully should be able to post it shortly.
"...a talisman against all evil, so long as you obey me."
This is a bit hand-wavey from you, Az. I mean, this is the name of the game. It's what we do. And you're not entirely accurate here.
Well, what makes me question in the first instance, is that there is nothing - and I mean nothing - to suggest that this was in any way a "trap" that Atog was trying to set. You absolutely cannot read that from what he posted. Not at the time and not looking back later. It just doesn't exist. The post he made about Vish. where he said the wagon looked promising, was about as innocuous as they come. If it was a "trap"-type post, I would have expected something a lot stronger. To encourage the scum to hop on behind. What he posted wasn't going to do that.
And, the other thing, Atog is now saying he wasn't even "trapping" by lying about his opinion - which could have made at least a slight amount of sense - he was "trapping" by being vague and misleading. He posts that the wagon looks "promising," leading people to believe he thinks Vish is suspicious, but what he secretly means (he now claims) is that it was promising because of the people who were voting for Vish. That's not a trap. That's not even lying, technically. It's being misleading with your wording. This is what he now claims. But reading in context, that's hard to swallow. Even aside from the fact that, if true, there's no angle here for a Townie.
And he didn't even admit it? He never came out and said, this is what he was doing, until he got caught in the inconsistency by Scarbo. Then he says this BS thing. That looks like a classic ret-con.
Again, where's the trap, and when did he spring it?
Thing is, that's not the only strike against him. He's also played the "I'm low-hanging fruit" card. Which is a bit weird, in that, he seemed to be saying that he expected the scum to go after him as an easy target, but he apparently also thought that he would get scum to jump on Vishamon by pretending to support that wagon?
So then why in the world would I out it so easily if I were scum?
Note: I see that Proph requested an extension. As the rules state, at least two people have to request it for one to be granted. Given that we have had two replacements and that the deadline is on Friday, I wouldn't be opposed to granting an extension. But you can probably do it. Fighting!
Man, I am not even allowed one RVS-esque line subbing into the game...? You are taking this a little seriously.
Anyone care to comment re: KoolKoal?
He didnt clap but this was his way of letting you all know he was Gruul. I cant say it was good, but if you go back and read page 1 you will see it was obvious Hansa was hinting at his Gruulness...
Dkings trying to potray Hansa as hiding information makes Dkings a LIAR.
@Proph,
I was working up to this revelation.
(Had to remove a bunch of non latin for this to post)
The "trap" is that when enough townies support a wagon, the scum feel confident in pursuing it.
*frown* I'm a little uncomfortable defending him so strongly when I see the viability of the ret-con angle as well as you do, but I get uncomfortable with the idea that he's dumb enough as scum to lie about what his stances were for essentially no reason (like, why not just say you messed up, as scum? Isn't that an unforced error?), yet also smart enough as scum to make several posts afterwards in a row explaining his entire posting history through that lens.
To me, the simplest explanation is inexperienced townie, straight up, rather than unevenly playing scum who's both punting one hand, but also fairly creative and slick in tying in his retcon to his past posts the next minute we see him, at the supposed retcon stage.
As Napoleon put it, "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." In this case, I'd rather stick with an order of simple incompetence rather than a curious mix of both malice, cunning, and incompetence, and wait to see what turns up in his record next.
In this case, I would not invoke the Napoleon quote you used, but rather Occam's Razor. Town lying about lying in order to negate scum points seems less plausible than scum lying about lying to try and avoid being lynched.
With Huntzilla claiming Gruul (bringing us up to four claimed Gruul), it's time to explain why I wanted any unclaimed Gruul to claim earlier. (Though in retrospect, considering how easy the Gruul ability is to test for I'm not sure why I bothered? Oh well.)
I'm assuming that the Mafia not only know what the clan abilities are but *have access to them*. Partially that's because the Mafia would be too easy to PoE out if they couldn't have clan abilities (given that Bloodrush is easily provable in thread and Boros is potentially provable if/when people start claiming targets), partially that's because Immortal Servitude makes more sense if the Mafia can have access to it (it's possible that Megiddo designed Immortal Servitude about tension over whether a player who didn't alignment flip was Orzhov or scum with an alignment-hiding ability, but *only* if guilds aren't revealed on death, and Occam's Razor and the other two mechanics suggest otherwise).
Given that, for game balance reasons it is likely that there are exactly three Gruul town (almost certainly no more than four) and almost certainly no more than one Gruul Mafioso. Four Gruul town is *possible*, but I think it's only possible if there's a fifth, Mafia Gruul as well - a four-man all-town Gruul group would be roughly equivalent to a quadruple voter, and that's difficult to balance even in a 20-player game. Two Gruul town is possible, but I don't think it's terribly likely at 20 players? A Gruul neutral is also possible, even probable if there's a fifth Gruul.
(Corollary: Gruul is the most likely guild to be smaller than average, by a sizeable margin.)
That's been guiding my play for most of the Day - I find Atog and snurfy/Killjoy scummy in a vacuum and Zindabad questionable (and it's even worse now - my early town read on hans/Huntzilla is shot given hans's "big post" and not claiming Gruul explicitly), but... at most two of them are scum, and that's only if there's an anti-town neutral.
More shortly, pushing this out now to avoid a prod.
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
I'm guessing it's what he was complaining about repeatedly - lack of content about other players, which after multiple complaints from Zinda, failed to change.
Atogaholic (3): Cythare, AsianInvasion, Axelrod
AsianInvasion (4): KoolKoal, Azrael, Huntzilla, Sepiriel
7hawk77 (1): dkingsland967
Scarbo (2): Taredas, ZeDorkSlipeur
Zindabad (4): Obzedat, Rhand, Scarbo, Archmage Eternal
Killjoy (1): Prophylaxis
V/LA
Rhand - Until the heat death of the universe
Mini Prod Watch
I didn't do a full activity check. I just looked at those on the previous prod watch. None of those players are in danger of being prodded. Don't get complacent, though!
A deadline extension has been requested. As I suggested, I think it's appropriate to grant this given the game state and the two recent replacements.
Deadline extension A has been used. It is no longer available for this game.
The deadline is now Friday, April 3, 11:59 PM EDT
Please be guided accordingly.
I'm glad you said this, because this post contributed nothing of worth.
I would like for you to explain your vote in this post, as well as provide your strongest town read.
@Az: please exain how the attack Zindabad made on me early game comes from town.
@Proph: yes.
/unvote
vote seperiel
Outdated Mafia Stats
Um, do you know what the Boros ability is? How do you know how "provable" it is?
Oh wait, you havent, you have just done the same as before which is well... yeah.
I have to go back and look at the sequence again, but what I remember are posts where both Rhand and yourself declared Vish looked Town and that AI then looked scummy for his opportunistic support of a Vish wagon. Your post in particular - the one where you said "psyche" (which was #190) - almost made it look like YOU were trapping. It seems like Atog may have seen that and been trying to find a way to avoid getting thrown in the same category as AI. Hence his comeback in #253 saying he really never had a scum read on Vish at all.
Atog even appeared to be trying to buddy you up in #208. He said you made a nice "catch" of AI. But this was before he came out and claimed he was essentially trying to do the exact same thing. That makes zero sense also. Looks to me like he got scared that you had laid a trap that he himself had fallen into, and was furiously backpedaling to try and make it appear like he never actually fell into it to begin with. Which is ironic because I don't see where you were actually laying any kind of trap to begin with, but he clearly read it like you were trapping, and tried to flatter you for it.
Good for you!
Oh wait...
You WEREN'T on the hawk wagon to begin with.
Care to try again buttercup?
@hawk: You need to start explaining all of your votes. This isn't RVS any more.
#bless
@KoolKoal: Are you scum?
I'm voting someone I think is scum.
There is context early game of why sep play is scummy and that last post was terrible.
If she was town she would have voted KK instead of saying, well if we're gonna lynch Kk, then I guess I'll vote him But only if other people think it's the right thing to do.
It would be one thing of she said that while still voting someone else but she unvotes and isn't voting anyone.
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You mean the context where you said people you read as town are voting me therefore i must be scum?
So yeah basically you didnt like my unvoting and then not immediately placing it on KK thats it, so much for you 'prior context'.
And then your quick snappy follow up post, you like merry go rounds dont you?
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Town who's playing to his frustrations instead of his better judgment. Upset that you interfered with his line of questioning. Pretty much the initial reason town-Iso blew a gasket with me in Cross-town 3 and wouldn't unvote for most of the day.
You may very well be right. I hadn't thought of my "psyche" potentially being the impetus for his backpedal. But I still would rather find another target for today and refrain from drawing conclusions based on that interaction alone. I want more data on him.
Of course I'm not, your entire win condition revolves around eliminating town.
pot to kettle really, since your entire early play consisted of snappy single liners that had no context, explanation or reasoning.
You want reasons? fine, I explained why i unvoted, i have mulled and reviewed my interactions with AI and the more time passes the more i realize its similar to a prior game we had.
Why am i not immediately humping the KK wagon? Simple I agree with the premise that KK's posting is horribly scummy, hell when he dry humped your vote on me it was even worse, yet i am not going to start flinging votes around right now, i have no real reason behind it, i just dont want to, if we reach town concensus that KK is the lynch i have no problem moving there but otherwise mechanically speaking my vote is meaningless since we can achieve Lynch wihout it no problem, yeah i have no other real reason, and i honestly dont care how you view it, but then again you yourself dnt care about it, all you are looking for is to push for a wagon that results in no information at end of day, because thats what benefits YOUR win con.
Also how is Hawk being town for his vote on me not scum reading me? that baffles the mind really.