zindabad was clearly fishing for a reaction. Sepiriel made a slanderous accusation. These are entirely different things. Why are you tunneling so hard, AE?
Why does the lion roar? Why does fire burn? Why did my cat pee in the bathtub, which she has never done before, and then three seconds later headboop the insurance policy I was reading into her pile of urine in order to protest my lack of scratching her?
Because it is in their nature. And because my cat is fiendishly smart and evil.
@ZDS: Actually im in South East Asia but otherwise nothing to correct other than note that the timing on my vote is more due to an error in unvoting before going V/LA.
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Quote from »
Call me old fashioned, but an evil ascension to power just isn't the same without someone chanting faux Latin in the background.
Oreo, Glazing people better than Dunkin' Donuts since 2009
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange eons even death may die.
I liked AI's PBPA just as a piece of work. I'm interested in the conclusion and if you feel it shows something about other players besides Hawk as well.
I need to go round up a new suspect, but as is typical these days, time is not my friend. ZDS seems like he's coming across okay. AE is actually not bad for not posting very much at all, but I'm missing what he means here:
That's what has me hung up on AI. To ignore something someone says about you that is utterly untrue.
. What is AI supposed to have ignored? The post where Zindabad says he "thought" he detected a "hint" of panic from AI? You really believe Town AI would have/should have jumped down Zindabad's throat for that? I suspect it would have been barely register-able for me, had someone tossed an "accusation" like that my way.
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Quote from Bateleur »
Ambush Krotiq makes me laugh so much. I keep rereading the card and it keeps not having Flash. In what sense is this an ambush again? I just have visions of this huge Krotiq poorly concealed in some bushes, feeling slightly sad that his carefully planned ambushes never seem to work.
zindabad was clearly fishing for a reaction. Sepiriel made a slanderous accusation. These are entirely different things. Why are you tunneling so hard, AE?
Archmage:
Thank you for backing up your meta-accusations. Do you think Zindabad's play in this game could have anything to do with him having trouble keeping up?
Not at all. My initial read on him was at the beginning of the game. There was no issue with keeping up. Besides, when he does post he recaps pretty well with some follow ups so...
I liked AI's PBPA just as a piece of work. I'm interested in the conclusion and if you feel it shows something about other players besides Hawk as well.
I need to go round up a new suspect, but as is typical these days, time is not my friend. ZDS seems like he's coming across okay. AE is actually not bad for not posting very much at all, but I'm missing what he means here:
That's what has me hung up on AI. To ignore something someone says about you that is utterly untrue.
. What is AI supposed to have ignored? The post where Zindabad says he "thought" he detected a "hint" of panic from AI? You really believe Town AI would have/should have jumped down Zindabad's throat for that? I suspect it would have been barely register-able for me, had someone tossed an "accusation" like that my way.
Ok that's fair. But I have a good read on how Zindabad acts.
Should have time to dedicate to a reread of this thread after the prerelease (on Sunday or Monday, perhaps). Until then, don't expect much out of me - I kind of got lost after I went off of V/LA and need to spend a little while digesting the thread in more detail. A bit more conflicted re: AI, as well, since I have the sneaking suspicion that I'm completely wrong this game and the scum are just laughing their heads off.
I have some stuff to say but I think AI should finish the pbpa before we change subjects. I'd rather not derail his train of thought or have my current views bias his analysis.
In the mean time I'm going to reread players that haven't made an impact on me.
I'm not liking the AI lynch. Az's case isn't very strong, and I haven't seen anyone else show evidence of a scum mindset. All there is is some inconclusive meta. I think I'm seeing a townie under pressure in him.
Atog, Hawk, Dkings, Snurfy and Zindabad are the lynches I support at this point. Maybe ZDS or Vishamon.
I'm moving my vote to Atog again. His push on AI on top of this page is bad and reads like an attempt to justify a vote that will come when the Gruul are ready to join the wagon. His posting gap until the pressure was off him reeks and the language he uses in his responses to AI rubs me wrong.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Hi guys! I'll catch up as quickly as humanly possible. Anything I should know going in? Claims, etc.?
@AI: no I am not.
Yes Atog claimed scum and basically proved AI is town with his piss poor excuse for an attack, though apparently I'm the only one who has realized this.
Bonus question: You've been gone for a while. Can you give us your thoughts on what happened during your absence, and give us your current reads?
I don't think hawk is scum, I looked through his posts and I see a town mindset. I'm still almost certain that AI is scum. I feel like I haven't been paying enough attention to Zindabad, there could be something there.
Quote from KK »
So it was 2/3 years ago, and I don't remember anything but the late game. Your gambit was almost certainly against someone with no experience or maybe 1 game of experience.
What? I'm not showboating I'm giving an example of my town meta to someone who directly asked for it. What did you think I was doing?
Quote from Rhand »
I'm moving my vote to Atog again. His push on AI on top of this page is bad and reads like an attempt to justify a vote that will come when the Gruul are ready to join the wagon. His posting gap until the pressure was off him reeks and the language he uses in his responses to AI rubs me wrong.
Are you really saying you think I'm scheming to quickhammer AI
I just realized that there *is* a town mindset that would explain AI's actions. I will not explain further at this time - we can revisit later if necessary.
What is it that you think you see, and what good do you think it does to keep this close to the chest?
What part of "I will not explain further at this time" do you not understand?
You've been attacking Atog with heated language ("scumlord", "claimed scum", etc.) for most of the Day, and continue to do so after this post.
But if you actually think Atog is scum... then why are you asking this question this way? Your tone abruptly changes from aggressive to neutral, and then abruptly changes *back* - I don't see a reason why you would do that as town.
Makes perfect sense if you're scum and *know* that Atog is town, though!
Togs: I was just trying to give the group as much info as I was reasonably sure of. I keep flip-flopping on whether the fact that the gambit was against a new player is pertinent or not, so I figured it was better to point it out.
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
@Taredas: I liked the question Scarbo asked Atog. If Atog flips scum, Scarbo is probably town. And certainly if Hawk flips scum too.
Concerning Zindabad: I don't have time to make a case before deadline. If I'm around toMorrow I'll do so. I'm pretty sold on him. But ISO his posts indeed. There's not too many of them.
Look for example at how he talked indirectly about AI in one of his first posts and then attacks me for "interfering". His motives are off.
The way ZDS just recapped the game for KJ looks like scum-scum interaction. He's pointing him towards the info scum needs to know: how the guilds work, who claimed them and who he should consider voting.
I would expect a townie to include behavior in this. The "why" of the big wagons.
Scarbo's reaction is a lot more natural. (@Scarbo: you're not the only one btw. Read my posts )
@Taredas: OK now you're intentionally misrepresenting my posts. Not once have I used this "heated language" you speak of when addressing Atog directly. So I'm going to insist that you iso my posts and back up that garbage with some quotes.
Scarbo, use less "if you read it you would obviously understand" and more "actual explanations".
I feel like almost all of your accusations this game have been "look at this obvscum" but you don't go in depth. This isn't calling you scum for it, this is just saying you arebeing less than helpful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I'm not liking the AI lynch. Az's case isn't very strong, and I haven't seen anyone else show evidence of a scum mindset. All there is is some inconclusive meta. I think I'm seeing a townie under pressure in him.
Atog, Hawk, Dkings, Snurfy and Zindabad are the lynches I support at this point. Maybe ZDS or Vishamon.
I'm moving my vote to Atog again. His push on AI on top of this page is bad and reads like an attempt to justify a vote that will come when the Gruul are ready to join the wagon. His posting gap until the pressure was off him reeks and the language he uses in his responses to AI rubs me wrong.
unvote, vote Atog
180 degree disagreement on those two primary reads, AI and Atog. AI's only defense has been to suggest, with only inconclusive evidence supporting him, that being sulky is his current meta. That's not the AI I'm familiar with. My case against him isn't the most detailed I've ever come up with, but that's solely because we're on a day one basis.
But the repeated pattern of wording tells I pointed out in his voting rationales - the weasel words and weak qualifiers interspersed with overly strong accusatory language - that is one of the tells I consider the most reliable and strongly indicative out of any I've ever seen. It is heavily indicative of someone who is lying about their motivations for voting someone. On that basis alone, even leaving aside his inexplicable descent into ennui under pressure, I want him dead and gone.
As for Atog, I think he's done a number of things, circumstantially, to hurt his credibility, but nowhere in his posting do I see anything that smacks of a scum mindset, including the post you just mentioned. That reads to me like healthy town paranoia. Not the best argument, but clearly motivated by having the right mentality and the right attitude for a townie.
1. No longer townreading hans based on his early play. I think it was fine to give out a town read based on what he had posted thus far but he's basically dead weight at this point.
2. Not really comfortable lynching either Togs or AI at this moment? I feel like the scum are just stringing us along here. Would prefer to lynch someone who is out of the spotlight and just not scumhunting, I guess. There's been so much pressure on like the same three-five people that the people who could really be scum are kind of just sitting in the background.
3. @hawk: I forgot if you answered this or not, but did you ever answer why you thought Sepiriel was scum in your first post and didn't vote him? You noted that you thought he was scum two times (your first post and your response to Tar) but your first vote is on.. snurfy. Why?
I could be persuaded to vote hawk. I'm not getting any genuine town-tells like I got from Unreal Tournament. Hurts my ego to lynch someone who is buddying me so hard, though.
4. @Az: Since Deathspeaker is over, is it possible for you to explain why you thought Rhand was scum in Deathspeaker, while you think Rhand is town in this game? I think since you were in an ongoing game with him it prevented you from fully articulating your thoughts on him in this game, but now that it's ended you should be able to provide your unfiltered thoughts.
5. Might need to take a closer look at scarbo. Upon rereading his first post, it feels off where he just lobs doubts against three/four players.
6. Axelrod, what is your current read on me? I remember you having some issues with me in the early game but it feels like you've completely dropped it now.
7. hawk does care about his questions though. Hm. Not voting Sepiriel is still weird, though.
8. I find it weird how snurfy addresses hawk and goes "IGMOEY" on him (which is definitely worth interrogating w/r/t killjoy, but I'll see his catchup) but doesn't actually respond to hawk. Also weird how he goes "IGMOEY" on hawk and expresses a scumread on Rhand but agrees with both of them with Togs. Potential UTR scum here, I think.
9. @Cythare: Can you explain your reads from your first read post?
ATM: Strong townreads on Sepiriel and Rhand. Weak townread on Togs and AI. Vish and AE have done some townie things but I'm not convicted on them. Most solid scumread right now is killjoy (r. snurfy) based off of snurfy's post which I addressed, but I'll wait for killjoy to catch up.
4. @Az: Since Deathspeaker is over, is it possible for you to explain why you thought Rhand was scum in Deathspeaker, while you think Rhand is town in this game? I think since you were in an ongoing game with him it prevented you from fully articulating your thoughts on him in this game, but now that it's ended you should be able to provide your unfiltered thoughts.
It did. Although I was reading Rhand as scum in deathspeaker before this game kicked off, after seeing how much Rhand's play here contrasted with DS, it was added confirmation. Rhand is doing everything here that he wasn't doing in DS - he's giving genuine reads and impressions off the top of his head on a wide range of subjects, without hesitation.
@Vish sure. I'll do it in 100 post increments since I won't have several straight hours to do this consecutively.
1-100
Hans votes no lynch in 5. +scum hans for not engaging anyone in the game.
Sepriel votes herself. +scum same reason as hans.
Small wagon builds on Sepriel. Ok.
Hans's 16 is weird, because the first part seems serious, and the second part seems goofy. +scum.
AI notices. +town.
However , hans's 20 seems like a weird position to take as scum. Very aloof. +town.
Proph is against a massclaim because he just got burned by that in Iji. But IIRC a massclaim would have killed the scum that game. Maybe that's just my opinion, idk.
Major town points to Az for his 31.
OOG: I keep getting distracted by Atog's avi.
Karn's trying hard this game. Not sure what that means. I seem to recall him being very engaged in STMU3. I also recall him feeling bad about his scum play at the end of RtR, so I guess +scum to Karn here. Anyone who would know: Is Karn ever this engaged as town?
+town for ZDS for the way he outed his ability, but wanted to keep part of it secret.
Hawk calls lots of people town, then barns the big wagon. +scum.
DKings noticed. +town.
Hawk's 67 is just weird. IDK what he's trying to say here.
Prophy's 76 is good, especially when he says "He's spending time tying people together (in this case, ZDS and I) instead of hunting scum." which I agree with. +town. Still don't agree with his views on Iji, but that can wait till postgame to talk about.
Rhand's 77 notes some good observations, except for the last thing. That last thing is kind of a stretch, plus I think Prophy hedges more than most, though so I'm not sure THAT is a tell for him.
Rhands 80 does a lot of linking, plus his voting stance is weird. Could just be Rhand doing that thing where he thinks he caught scum and is prematurely linking them based on interactions. Bit of a stretch, but null overall, I'd say.
Hans votes the Ghost Council... interested in where that goes. However, he's also avoiding butting heads with anyone. But then that fits with the aloof theme.
Rhand seems to believe his argument, I think? +town. Also, maybe I'm misremembering Prophy's hedging? Rhand seems very confident that he doesn't do this often.
But Rhand's back off of Prophy in 91 seems awkward. +scum.
Sepriel's 93 seems insincere. Spends the first half saying how bad her wagon is (there were a couple weird votes), but then she gets to Hans. She obviously thinks he's scum, but never votes him. ++scum.
Hans notices. I'd say null because it's about him.
Sep realized that she didn't vote hans, then says Karn and AI get scum points, notably not giving reasons for this (though I assume it's in that big post, so null).
Proph's 99 says he seems town Sep because confusion and surprise. I disagree that that is presesnt. Her language suggests she just wants to make the wagon look bad. Like I said, some of the votes were bad, but not all.
T/S list stands thus (no particular order):
Town
AI
AE(seems to be scumhunting. I like his tone)
Az
ZDS
Lean Town
Hans
Dkingsland
Proph
Somewhere In Between
Rhand (Some that make him town, but he stretches some stuff, plus that back off of Prophy was bad.. but that only really looks bad for Rhand if Proph is scum. But then I have Proph up in LT, so that might not be an issue)
Null
Atog
Axel
Cythare
Karn
Vish (I don't recall there being any posts by him in the first 100)
Taredas (Didn't post in the first 100)
Zindabad (had one real post about mechanics, didn't post anything since)
Scarbo (Don't remember any from him)
KoolKoal (I don't recall seeing posts from him either)
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Given that the wagon has been the "Null Hall of Fame" for me (except Rhand), not sure how much I could get from this wagon right now, given that all of them have been posting fairly reasonably.
3. Want to pressure KoolKoal - his contributions have been very surface-level and quite fly on the wall. Not sure about my read on him right now given that he's been lurking and had a slow start, and I know he's capable of posting a lot more.
4. I'm interested as to why dkings keeps saying that Rhand doesn't believe his own reads when he's pressured Sepiriel and I pretty hard before backing off of both of us in an organic manner. I want to keep an open head w/r/t dkings though, since even though I don't like his posts he's adopted the devil's advocate position with regards to both of the wagons.
5. @Az: Can you explain this post about Cythare, if you can?
Quote from Azrael »
Could come from a scum player. Could also easily come from a town player. Sign of a wagon I don't want to be on.
Not sure if your intent there was to be cryptic, though.
6. Now that I'm reading it more closely, I feel like AI's PBPA solidifies him sort of as town. He meandered for a while at the beginning of the PBPA ("weak town tell") and he's asking decent questions.
7.
Quote from Togs »
I don't think hawk is scum, I looked through his posts and I see a town mindset
Can you explain this in more detail (ie: go through hawk's posts and show us where you find a town mindset in his posts)?
8. @Tar: Why are you using oddly definitive language on scarbo, Togs, and AI ("Makes perfect sense if you're scum and *know* that Atog is town, though!", "You're scum. Get lynched.") when you've just switched off twice on Togs and AI? You say like you're sure they're scum, but then a few posts later you express self-doubt and then you're on to the next one. The continued conviction feels a bit off, if you understand what I'm saying.
Thanks, Az, for answering my question. That solidifies my townread on Rhand.
----
Results from reread: Same as before (Strong townreads on Sepiriel and Rhand. Weak townread on Togs and AI) as well as townreads on Az, Vish, zindabad, AE, Axelrod. This is a bit troublesome since other than AI I didn't really shift conclusions about my townreads; just got some more scumreads. I think I'm resigned to the fact that I need to wait for flips before really doublechecking my townreads.
Scumreads include killjoy and KoolKoal. I really disliked snurfy's scumreading of Rhand and hawk, when he supports the Togs wagon (which both Rhand and hawk were on at the time). KoolKoal's like KamikazeArchon in Deathspeaker: Pretty UTR and not having much analysis. He chose the easy way when AI and Togs were both under pressure (They're both scum!) and when pressure on hawk started to mount he went "I guess you're scum" without voting hawk. He said "now to figure out if it changes the AI situation" but he doesn't go into that at all; he just starts to question hawk.
Vote KoolKoal
KoolKoal:
1. What are your town reads? Can you talk about anyone other than AI, hawk, and Togs? I have no idea what your stances are on all of the other players since you've avoided interacting with most of them.
2. Do you really think that Togs, AI, and hawk are all scum together? That would be a easy scumteam to find out, right?
V/LA
Rhand - Until the heat death of the universe
Cythare - The weekend
Prod check will happen at the end of the day tomorrow. As you can see, my powers are such that I can bend time and space to replace players in this game, so please be guided accordingly.
Deadline is soonish, so don't dawdle.
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Can we have Megiddo removed from the forum forever please?
i'm pretty sure i can find your ***** online within 3 minutes
5. @Az: Can you explain this post about Cythare, if you can?
Not sure if your intent there was to be cryptic, though.
6. Now that I'm reading it more closely, I feel like AI's PBPA solidifies him sort of as town. He meandered for a while at the beginning of the PBPA ("weak town tell") and he's asking decent questions.
That post was about the Atog case, not Cythare.
The person I was arguing with thought that his posting style might come from scum. I pointed out that there was also a pretty compelling pro-town explanation or narrative for why Atog was behaving as he was (trying to trap scum and conceal his reads from them). When there's that strong of a pro-town explanation for what someone was doing, I don't much care for using that evidence as the foundation for a case.
The better cases are those where there is only one likely interpretation that can be drawn from the activity - scum alignment.
Proph: Basically, I'm barely hanging in this game right now. I almost didn't join before Meg forcibly signed me up. School's very busy right now, so I can't give 100%, though I could do better than this. All of my reads are pretty flimsy as they're based on gut and the one time I've read every post.
I also have been feeling less sure about the AI read, though I could still see him and hawk being scum together. I've been waiting for him to finish his pbpa to say anything, because it felt like a good idea to give him some rope just in case he wanted to stumble and hang himself. Idk, it felt like a good idea at the time. All the stuff with AI and Togs is so old at this point, its all remembered rememberings, so I probably need to do a reread to re-adjust my opinion around the more recent posts. And the main reason I haven't swapped my vote over to hawk is, like I said in my first post of the game, I always find him scummy, so I want to be cautious that this isn't his usual scummy-town game that confuses me.
My town reads are flimsy because they're based mostly on gut and reading the thread only as it naturally progresses. But here they are:
Proph is probably town because his town and scum game aren't even close to similar and I doubt he's fixed up his scum game since I started my "mafia break"
Az -I've been townreading him pretty steadily, though I have little faith in this because its pure gut and I've never played with him before. I trust my gut though.
Vish is probably town because if he's scum he'll probably slip horribly later anyway. (and my gut screams town every time I read one of his posts)
AE mostly gut, but I feel fairly confident about this one, like the reasoning is just out of reach while my mind is distracted from committing 100%
Sir Karn- very weak gut read
I doubt Togs, AI, and hawk are all scum together. Mostly because games are almost never decided so easily, especially with this many players. I don't see any concrete reasons they couldn't be buddies though.
My biggest project for the school term (I hope, cross your fingers) is due tomorrow so I'm going to try to step it up later this week.
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I'll bet you wish you had a non-unglued/unhinged card that shared your first name.
As for AI's PBPA, PBPAs are usually the least profitable posts to draw a conclusion about someone's alignment from. They're the posts where someone spends the most time writing them, going over them, revising them, and honing their stances and verbiage. And questions are easy to ask. Especially when you've been put on notice by a case that you are under scrutiny and need to fool some townies into trusting you again.
Rhand asked plenty of good questions in Deathspeaker. He really did.
What he didn't fake, was his interest in having those questions actually answered. It's the small, subtle things between the lines that tend to get scum caught. The missing pieces from their town mentality that they forget to insert into their camouflage, in the way they write their wording.
KoolKoal's post seems honest, but man, I'm just lacking conviction on anyone right now. I had it on Togs and AI before they started making townie posts and make me doubt myself. This reread, without flips, has failed to restore it. I wanted to pressure KoolKoal and killjoy, who are both effectively lurkers at the time being, and the deadline is in like five days. No one has been screaming at me that they're scum, and I have some objections to the two main people being wagonned. Az has some decent points about AI, but I don't really want to turn my brain off and vote him.
I like Rhand so far, even though I think he's tunneling on Sepiral too much. You've got to try and imagine how you'd feel if a significant wagon built up on you over your very first RVS post. And then not just keep it to how you personally would feel but imagine how someone else might. Like I said before, I can see where Sep. is coming from on that.
Proph: given that you have apparently admitted to a deliberate shift in playstyle from last game to this (without saying you were going to do so in the thread) what makes my vote on you so poor? Like, if one game you make it a point to mention how you like to look for odd RVS stuff to jump on and attack - which is more or less exactly what you said last game - and then you don't do that here, instead doing what appears to be the opposite, with no explanation, wouldn't that make for a reasonable case of raised eyebrows? And then, when specifically asked about it, and then you say "well, I did notice the thing, but I'm deliberately doing it different this game because it didn't work out so well last time" - again, wouldn't that at least make for a reasonable suspicion?
I don't even care so much if you ignore the vote - but you went out of your way to characterize it as "pretty poor" so, what would you say makes it so?
I have a tendency to dislike the short, hit and run posters. Snurfy maybe being the worst atm. The "you guys post too much" cry of dismay always seems to ring false to me. I am getting the bad vibes from AI now too.
I'll agree with this for the most part, except keep in mind I usually don't have time to do a big honking analysis. That's why a lot of my posts are just a blurb expressing how I feel at the moment.
Something just dawned on me. We're playing right into the cards of scum with all the guild claims.
@All the non-Gruul that haven't claimed yet: please don't do it.
Especially the remaining Orzhov need to keep silent.
It is good that the abilities are public, but not good that the players having them are outed too.
We don't really need to worry about the guild abilities outing- Gruul was necessary to avoid quicklynches, and its to the Boros' advantage to claim. However, I think that the Orzhov ability should have only been outed under duress if at all, and the members of the Simic should use their better judgement before outing. (The fact it hasn't been outed yet probably means that it shouldn't be). I agree we have to be careful about laying all of this out in the open.
Quote from Rhand »
Okay, I'm probably completely wrong about Sepi then. Thx Az.
Also, the other question was also me. I found it weird that you put Sepi there and not just nowhere like all other nullreads.
I'll take another look at Vishamon. What's your take on Atog?
Don't like this at all. Pretty much just /barns everything Az has to say.
Quote from 7hawk77 »
@Tar
Sep was self aware and his vocabulary on how he says things felt off. His actions seem desperate and not helpful.
For these reasons I think he is scum.
The people that were on his wagon I think are town for gut/meta reasons.
Having people on his wagon that are town doesn't make him scum, his behavior does. If I felt uneasy about some people on his wagon it would be setting off alarms. This was not the case.
That being said, lynching him without getting a reveal day 1 is a waste.
So this boils down to "Sep was selfaware" which is pretty much /barning Rhand's case, and then calls his wagon (which wasn't much of a wagon at that point) town. This is a little odd- IGMEOY.
Quote from Prophylaxis »
Quote from Togs »
Az made a nice catch in 190. I want to lynch Proph, Taredas, or AI toDay
I love how opportunistic this is. No mention about the Vish thing either.
More votes on Togs, please.
/barn this. I could get behind the Togs wagon. Since I'm Gruul and he's dangerously close to lynch, I'll drop a FoS:Atog for now, but I definitely support lynching him.
In here, he says "don't like this at all" to Rhand, and IGMEOYs hawk without a vote. He later drops a FoS on Togs, even though Rhand and hawk are already on the wagon:
Why does the lion roar? Why does fire burn? Why did my cat pee in the bathtub, which she has never done before, and then three seconds later headboop the insurance policy I was reading into her pile of urine in order to protest my lack of scratching her?
Because it is in their nature. And because my cat is fiendishly smart and evil.
I need to go round up a new suspect, but as is typical these days, time is not my friend. ZDS seems like he's coming across okay. AE is actually not bad for not posting very much at all, but I'm missing what he means here:
. What is AI supposed to have ignored? The post where Zindabad says he "thought" he detected a "hint" of panic from AI? You really believe Town AI would have/should have jumped down Zindabad's throat for that? I suspect it would have been barely register-able for me, had someone tossed an "accusation" like that my way.
Atogaholic (3): Cythare, AsianInvasion, Scarbo
AsianInvasion (7): Prophylaxis, Archmage Eternal, KoolKoal, Azrael, hansanator, ZeDorkSlipeur, Sepiriel
dkingsland967 (1): Rhand
7hawk77 (2): dkingsland967, Obzedat
Scarbo (1): Taredas
V/LA
Rhand - Until the heat death of the universe
Prod Watch
snurfy8: Three days
Atogaholic: Two days
hansanator: Two days
Snurfy is being prodded.
If he (or tog/hans etc.) hasn't posted something really compelling by the time I get back from my trip he will be replaced on the spot.
Have a good weekend!
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
Congrats! Marriage is great if your lady's not crazy!
She's watching me. She's always watching me.
Ok fine, I can see your point.
Not at all. My initial read on him was at the beginning of the game. There was no issue with keeping up. Besides, when he does post he recaps pretty well with some follow ups so...
Ok that's fair. But I have a good read on how Zindabad acts.
They hate us cause they ain't us.
I have a dinner date followed by midnight prere. Don't expect to be online until ~ 20 hours from the time of this post.
Should have time to dedicate to a reread of this thread after the prerelease (on Sunday or Monday, perhaps). Until then, don't expect much out of me - I kind of got lost after I went off of V/LA and need to spend a little while digesting the thread in more detail. A bit more conflicted re: AI, as well, since I have the sneaking suspicion that I'm completely wrong this game and the scum are just laughing their heads off.
In the mean time I'm going to reread players that haven't made an impact on me.
Outdated Mafia Stats
Draft my cube! (630 cards)
I'm not liking the AI lynch. Az's case isn't very strong, and I haven't seen anyone else show evidence of a scum mindset. All there is is some inconclusive meta. I think I'm seeing a townie under pressure in him.
Atog, Hawk, Dkings, Snurfy and Zindabad are the lynches I support at this point. Maybe ZDS or Vishamon.
I'm moving my vote to Atog again. His push on AI on top of this page is bad and reads like an attempt to justify a vote that will come when the Gruul are ready to join the wagon. His posting gap until the pressure was off him reeks and the language he uses in his responses to AI rubs me wrong.
unvote, vote Atog
Me = Kettle or Pot? You decide!
I am still in New York, so vote counts and such to come when I am home again.
@AI: no I am not.
Pretty sure if you iso his posts you can figure it out for yourself.
OK that's not really saying anything.
Yes Atog claimed scum and basically proved AI is town with his piss poor excuse for an attack, though apparently I'm the only one who has realized this.
What? I'm not showboating I'm giving an example of my town meta to someone who directly asked for it. What did you think I was doing?
Are you really saying you think I'm scheming to quickhammer AI
What part of "I will not explain further at this time" do you not understand?
---
Uh, wait.
You've been attacking Atog with heated language ("scumlord", "claimed scum", etc.) for most of the Day, and continue to do so after this post.
But if you actually think Atog is scum... then why are you asking this question this way? Your tone abruptly changes from aggressive to neutral, and then abruptly changes *back* - I don't see a reason why you would do that as town.
Makes perfect sense if you're scum and *know* that Atog is town, though!
It is too late for the pebbles to vote."
@Taredas: I liked the question Scarbo asked Atog. If Atog flips scum, Scarbo is probably town. And certainly if Hawk flips scum too.
Concerning Zindabad: I don't have time to make a case before deadline. If I'm around toMorrow I'll do so. I'm pretty sold on him. But ISO his posts indeed. There's not too many of them.
Look for example at how he talked indirectly about AI in one of his first posts and then attacks me for "interfering". His motives are off.
I would expect a townie to include behavior in this. The "why" of the big wagons.
Scarbo's reaction is a lot more natural. (@Scarbo: you're not the only one btw. Read my posts )
@Taredas: OK now you're intentionally misrepresenting my posts. Not once have I used this "heated language" you speak of when addressing Atog directly. So I'm going to insist that you iso my posts and back up that garbage with some quotes.
I feel like almost all of your accusations this game have been "look at this obvscum" but you don't go in depth. This isn't calling you scum for it, this is just saying you arebeing less than helpful.
180 degree disagreement on those two primary reads, AI and Atog. AI's only defense has been to suggest, with only inconclusive evidence supporting him, that being sulky is his current meta. That's not the AI I'm familiar with. My case against him isn't the most detailed I've ever come up with, but that's solely because we're on a day one basis.
But the repeated pattern of wording tells I pointed out in his voting rationales - the weasel words and weak qualifiers interspersed with overly strong accusatory language - that is one of the tells I consider the most reliable and strongly indicative out of any I've ever seen. It is heavily indicative of someone who is lying about their motivations for voting someone. On that basis alone, even leaving aside his inexplicable descent into ennui under pressure, I want him dead and gone.
As for Atog, I think he's done a number of things, circumstantially, to hurt his credibility, but nowhere in his posting do I see anything that smacks of a scum mindset, including the post you just mentioned. That reads to me like healthy town paranoia. Not the best argument, but clearly motivated by having the right mentality and the right attitude for a townie.
1. No longer townreading hans based on his early play. I think it was fine to give out a town read based on what he had posted thus far but he's basically dead weight at this point.
2. Not really comfortable lynching either Togs or AI at this moment? I feel like the scum are just stringing us along here. Would prefer to lynch someone who is out of the spotlight and just not scumhunting, I guess. There's been so much pressure on like the same three-five people that the people who could really be scum are kind of just sitting in the background.
3. @hawk: I forgot if you answered this or not, but did you ever answer why you thought Sepiriel was scum in your first post and didn't vote him? You noted that you thought he was scum two times (your first post and your response to Tar) but your first vote is on.. snurfy. Why?
I could be persuaded to vote hawk. I'm not getting any genuine town-tells like I got from Unreal Tournament. Hurts my ego to lynch someone who is buddying me so hard, though.
4. @Az: Since Deathspeaker is over, is it possible for you to explain why you thought Rhand was scum in Deathspeaker, while you think Rhand is town in this game? I think since you were in an ongoing game with him it prevented you from fully articulating your thoughts on him in this game, but now that it's ended you should be able to provide your unfiltered thoughts.
5. Might need to take a closer look at scarbo. Upon rereading his first post, it feels off where he just lobs doubts against three/four players.
6. Axelrod, what is your current read on me? I remember you having some issues with me in the early game but it feels like you've completely dropped it now.
7. hawk does care about his questions though. Hm. Not voting Sepiriel is still weird, though.
8. I find it weird how snurfy addresses hawk and goes "IGMOEY" on him (which is definitely worth interrogating w/r/t killjoy, but I'll see his catchup) but doesn't actually respond to hawk. Also weird how he goes "IGMOEY" on hawk and expresses a scumread on Rhand but agrees with both of them with Togs. Potential UTR scum here, I think.
9. @Cythare: Can you explain your reads from your first read post?
ATM: Strong townreads on Sepiriel and Rhand. Weak townread on Togs and AI. Vish and AE have done some townie things but I'm not convicted on them. Most solid scumread right now is killjoy (r. snurfy) based off of snurfy's post which I addressed, but I'll wait for killjoy to catch up.
It did. Although I was reading Rhand as scum in deathspeaker before this game kicked off, after seeing how much Rhand's play here contrasted with DS, it was added confirmation. Rhand is doing everything here that he wasn't doing in DS - he's giving genuine reads and impressions off the top of his head on a wide range of subjects, without hesitation.
1-100
Hans votes no lynch in 5. +scum hans for not engaging anyone in the game.
Sepriel votes herself. +scum same reason as hans.
Small wagon builds on Sepriel. Ok.
Hans's 16 is weird, because the first part seems serious, and the second part seems goofy. +scum.
AI notices. +town.
However , hans's 20 seems like a weird position to take as scum. Very aloof. +town.
Proph is against a massclaim because he just got burned by that in Iji. But IIRC a massclaim would have killed the scum that game. Maybe that's just my opinion, idk.
Major town points to Az for his 31.
OOG: I keep getting distracted by Atog's avi.
Karn's trying hard this game. Not sure what that means. I seem to recall him being very engaged in STMU3. I also recall him feeling bad about his scum play at the end of RtR, so I guess +scum to Karn here.
Anyone who would know: Is Karn ever this engaged as town?
+town for ZDS for the way he outed his ability, but wanted to keep part of it secret.
Hawk calls lots of people town, then barns the big wagon. +scum.
DKings noticed. +town.
Hawk's 67 is just weird. IDK what he's trying to say here.
Prophy's 76 is good, especially when he says "He's spending time tying people together (in this case, ZDS and I) instead of hunting scum." which I agree with. +town. Still don't agree with his views on Iji, but that can wait till postgame to talk about.
Rhand's 77 notes some good observations, except for the last thing. That last thing is kind of a stretch, plus I think Prophy hedges more than most, though so I'm not sure THAT is a tell for him.
Rhands 80 does a lot of linking, plus his voting stance is weird. Could just be Rhand doing that thing where he thinks he caught scum and is prematurely linking them based on interactions. Bit of a stretch, but null overall, I'd say.
Hans votes the Ghost Council... interested in where that goes. However, he's also avoiding butting heads with anyone. But then that fits with the aloof theme.
Rhand seems to believe his argument, I think? +town. Also, maybe I'm misremembering Prophy's hedging? Rhand seems very confident that he doesn't do this often.
But Rhand's back off of Prophy in 91 seems awkward. +scum.
Sepriel's 93 seems insincere. Spends the first half saying how bad her wagon is (there were a couple weird votes), but then she gets to Hans. She obviously thinks he's scum, but never votes him. ++scum.
Hans notices. I'd say null because it's about him.
Sep realized that she didn't vote hans, then says Karn and AI get scum points, notably not giving reasons for this (though I assume it's in that big post, so null).
Proph's 99 says he seems town Sep because confusion and surprise. I disagree that that is presesnt. Her language suggests she just wants to make the wagon look bad. Like I said, some of the votes were bad, but not all.
T/S list stands thus (no particular order):
Town
AI
AE(seems to be scumhunting. I like his tone)
Az
ZDS
Lean Town
Hans
Dkingsland
Proph
Somewhere In Between
Rhand (Some that make him town, but he stretches some stuff, plus that back off of Prophy was bad.. but that only really looks bad for Rhand if Proph is scum. But then I have Proph up in LT, so that might not be an issue)
Null
Atog
Axel
Cythare
Karn
Vish (I don't recall there being any posts by him in the first 100)
Taredas (Didn't post in the first 100)
Zindabad (had one real post about mechanics, didn't post anything since)
Scarbo (Don't remember any from him)
KoolKoal (I don't recall seeing posts from him either)
Lean Scum
Hawk
Scum
Sepriel
(I plan on doing this for every 100 posts.)
5. But if needed for a lynch I'll vote the other 2.
Something wrong with that?
@Az: Do you think Proph is town? What you're saying there about AI is exactly what Proph was doing earlier and what made me think he was scum.
1. ZDS, what's your current read on Sir Karn? Karn seems to have disappeared for a while and the issues you've had with him were dropped.
2. I find it likely that there's probably a scum on the Togs wagon? Just subtract the Obzedat vote:
Atogaholic (7): Taredas, Rhand, 7hawk77, Cythare, Scarbo, dkingsland967
Given that the wagon has been the "Null Hall of Fame" for me (except Rhand), not sure how much I could get from this wagon right now, given that all of them have been posting fairly reasonably.
3. Want to pressure KoolKoal - his contributions have been very surface-level and quite fly on the wall. Not sure about my read on him right now given that he's been lurking and had a slow start, and I know he's capable of posting a lot more.
4. I'm interested as to why dkings keeps saying that Rhand doesn't believe his own reads when he's pressured Sepiriel and I pretty hard before backing off of both of us in an organic manner. I want to keep an open head w/r/t dkings though, since even though I don't like his posts he's adopted the devil's advocate position with regards to both of the wagons.
5. @Az: Can you explain this post about Cythare, if you can?
Not sure if your intent there was to be cryptic, though.
6. Now that I'm reading it more closely, I feel like AI's PBPA solidifies him sort of as town. He meandered for a while at the beginning of the PBPA ("weak town tell") and he's asking decent questions.
7.
Can you explain this in more detail (ie: go through hawk's posts and show us where you find a town mindset in his posts)?
8. @Tar: Why are you using oddly definitive language on scarbo, Togs, and AI ("Makes perfect sense if you're scum and *know* that Atog is town, though!", "You're scum. Get lynched.") when you've just switched off twice on Togs and AI? You say like you're sure they're scum, but then a few posts later you express self-doubt and then you're on to the next one. The continued conviction feels a bit off, if you understand what I'm saying.
Thanks, Az, for answering my question. That solidifies my townread on Rhand.
----
Results from reread: Same as before (Strong townreads on Sepiriel and Rhand. Weak townread on Togs and AI) as well as townreads on Az, Vish, zindabad, AE, Axelrod. This is a bit troublesome since other than AI I didn't really shift conclusions about my townreads; just got some more scumreads. I think I'm resigned to the fact that I need to wait for flips before really doublechecking my townreads.
Scumreads include killjoy and KoolKoal. I really disliked snurfy's scumreading of Rhand and hawk, when he supports the Togs wagon (which both Rhand and hawk were on at the time). KoolKoal's like KamikazeArchon in Deathspeaker: Pretty UTR and not having much analysis. He chose the easy way when AI and Togs were both under pressure (They're both scum!) and when pressure on hawk started to mount he went "I guess you're scum" without voting hawk. He said "now to figure out if it changes the AI situation" but he doesn't go into that at all; he just starts to question hawk.
Vote KoolKoal
KoolKoal:
1. What are your town reads? Can you talk about anyone other than AI, hawk, and Togs? I have no idea what your stances are on all of the other players since you've avoided interacting with most of them.
2. Do you really think that Togs, AI, and hawk are all scum together? That would be a easy scumteam to find out, right?
Atogaholic (4): Cythare, AsianInvasion, Scarbo, Rhand
AsianInvasion (6): Archmage Eternal, KoolKoal, Azrael, hansanator, ZeDorkSlipeur, Sepiriel
7hawk77 (2): dkingsland967, Obzedat
Scarbo (1): Taredas
KoolKoal (1): Prophylaxis
V/LA
Rhand - Until the heat death of the universe
Cythare - The weekend
Prod check will happen at the end of the day tomorrow. As you can see, my powers are such that I can bend time and space to replace players in this game, so please be guided accordingly.
Deadline is soonish, so don't dawdle.
Where at?
That post was about the Atog case, not Cythare.
The person I was arguing with thought that his posting style might come from scum. I pointed out that there was also a pretty compelling pro-town explanation or narrative for why Atog was behaving as he was (trying to trap scum and conceal his reads from them). When there's that strong of a pro-town explanation for what someone was doing, I don't much care for using that evidence as the foundation for a case.
The better cases are those where there is only one likely interpretation that can be drawn from the activity - scum alignment.
I also have been feeling less sure about the AI read, though I could still see him and hawk being scum together. I've been waiting for him to finish his pbpa to say anything, because it felt like a good idea to give him some rope just in case he wanted to stumble and hang himself. Idk, it felt like a good idea at the time. All the stuff with AI and Togs is so old at this point, its all remembered rememberings, so I probably need to do a reread to re-adjust my opinion around the more recent posts. And the main reason I haven't swapped my vote over to hawk is, like I said in my first post of the game, I always find him scummy, so I want to be cautious that this isn't his usual scummy-town game that confuses me.
My town reads are flimsy because they're based mostly on gut and reading the thread only as it naturally progresses. But here they are:
Proph is probably town because his town and scum game aren't even close to similar and I doubt he's fixed up his scum game since I started my "mafia break"
Az -I've been townreading him pretty steadily, though I have little faith in this because its pure gut and I've never played with him before. I trust my gut though.
Vish is probably town because if he's scum he'll probably slip horribly later anyway. (and my gut screams town every time I read one of his posts)
AE mostly gut, but I feel fairly confident about this one, like the reasoning is just out of reach while my mind is distracted from committing 100%
Sir Karn- very weak gut read
I doubt Togs, AI, and hawk are all scum together. Mostly because games are almost never decided so easily, especially with this many players. I don't see any concrete reasons they couldn't be buddies though.
My biggest project for the school term (I hope, cross your fingers) is due tomorrow so I'm going to try to step it up later this week.
Rhand asked plenty of good questions in Deathspeaker. He really did.
What he didn't fake, was his interest in having those questions actually answered. It's the small, subtle things between the lines that tend to get scum caught. The missing pieces from their town mentality that they forget to insert into their camouflage, in the way they write their wording.
AI is not to be trusted.
Oh, okay. That makes a lot more sense then.
KoolKoal's post seems honest, but man, I'm just lacking conviction on anyone right now. I had it on Togs and AI before they started making townie posts and make me doubt myself. This reread, without flips, has failed to restore it. I wanted to pressure KoolKoal and killjoy, who are both effectively lurkers at the time being, and the deadline is in like five days. No one has been screaming at me that they're scum, and I have some objections to the two main people being wagonned. Az has some decent points about AI, but I don't really want to turn my brain off and vote him.
*sigh*
Unvote
I hope Day 2 sheds some more light.
What does everyone think about this snurfy post:
In here, he says "don't like this at all" to Rhand, and IGMEOYs hawk without a vote. He later drops a FoS on Togs, even though Rhand and hawk are already on the wagon:
*Upgrades snurfy to scum list*