The thing that bothers me is that you needed me to ask you about the number of vanilla's to use it as extra leverage against me while it doesn't bother you at all that it is Lngr who has a differ ce in his vanilla flavor and not me.
Tell me: will you be auto-voting LnGr when I flip town?
You implied heavily that you could not be scum because the small number of VT claims indicated that those claims were all true. I disagree, and the rule of three disproves the idea that all three claims must be true. Did I then use it as extra leverage? Damn right I did; I'll take any nail to help shut the lid on your coffin.
No, I will not be voting LnGrrrR if you somehow aren't scum because I don't think he is scum. The main crux of my argument against you is your shifty response to TCM and it always has been; the rule of three is merely supporting reasoning and *NOT* a guarantee.
I only think the rule of three is applicable in this case because I'm pretty sure you're scum.
Karn is scum. No way he's modded another game and hasn't read a thing in this one since he last posted, he's lurking and stalling.
I don't know where we stand in queenville but I don't feel good about the Wheat lynch atm. It feels "we don't know what else to doish." Kami would be good but I'd also really like this.
Unvote: Vote: Karn
His overt defense of Tan early and his efforting only to stop doing anything later when he thought his role confirmed him. His lack of interest in Kpaca when he claimed bulletproof despite being untargetable. And there was an "I don't care right now" post from earlier I also didn't like.
Sheep me as you should have on Teia both D1 and 2. Thanks!
Karn is scum. No way he's modded another game and hasn't read a thing in this one since he last posted, he's lurking and stalling.
I don't know where we stand in queenville but I don't feel good about the Wheat lynch atm. It feels "we don't know what else to doish." Kami would be good but I'd also really like this.
Unvote: Vote: Karn
His overt defense of Tan early and his efforting only to stop doing anything later when he thought his role confirmed him. His lack of interest in Kpaca when he claimed bulletproof despite being untargetable. And there was an "I don't care right now" post from earlier I also didn't like.
Sheep me as you should have on Teia both D1 and 2. Thanks!
Karn is scum. No way he's modded another game and hasn't read a thing in this one since he last posted, he's lurking and stalling.
I don't know where we stand in queenville but I don't feel good about the Wheat lynch atm. It feels "we don't know what else to doish." Kami would be good but I'd also really like this.
Unvote: Vote: Karn
His overt defense of Tan early and his efforting only to stop doing anything later when he thought his role confirmed him. His lack of interest in Kpaca when he claimed bulletproof despite being untargetable. And there was an "I don't care right now" post from earlier I also didn't like.
Sheep me as you should have on Teia both D1 and 2. Thanks!
This has to be a mason gambit. Has to be. There is no way this DCIII is town. Or maybe you've been recruited. But I'm betting scum for you, and therefore Bur.
Rhand: unless queen recruited n0, then you're probably not the queen. If you recruited Arian, then there's apossibility. Wheat I'm not sure about. Idon't think he's queen, but he could have been recruited maybe. I'm not excluding him completely.
Wildfire: if you do decide to shoot, and Karn is not the queen, shoot KA. This queen needs to die.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
You implied heavily that you could not be scum because the small number of VT claims indicated that those claims were all true. I disagree, and the rule of three disproves the idea that all three claims must be true. Did I then use it as extra leverage? Damn right I did; I'll take any nail to help shut the lid on your coffin.
No, I will not be voting LnGrrrR if you somehow aren't scum because I don't think he is scum. The main crux of my argument against you is your shifty response to TCM and it always has been; the rule of three is merely supporting reasoning and *NOT* a guarantee.
I only think the rule of three is applicable in this case because I'm pretty sure you're scum.
Your implying routine is getting boring. Stop putting words in my mouth please.
I like how that theory of 3 is only applicable if it helps getting me lynches. You're full of ****.
Waiting with bated breath for karn's catch-up. Very much don't like that he only popped back in once people started shifting attention to him.
KJ, explain how that post is not a town post.
"Karn is scum. No way he's modded another game and hasn't read a thing in this one since he last posted, he's lurking and stalling." This. Right here. It's SO BS. Looking at Karn's activity, he's obviously busy. I mean the most intensive thing he's done since like a week ago is basic upkeep modding. Go look at his activity, and tell me DC's reaction was warranted.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I'll be V/LA from tomorrow afternoon (the 23rd) until Monday the 29th.
Let's go through some scenarios.
Say we lynch Kami.
A: He flips scum but not redirector. Wildfire no-shoots. Scum kills probably Hans.
This leaves us with:
10 alive, 6 to lynch. 1 probable scum remaining + queen with, let's say 2 drones. I think we can assume that the queen would have a 50% success chance. Actually, let's set the marker at 3 (75%). That's much more conservative and plays to risks.
This translates to 1 scum, 4 cult, 5 town. If it's 6 to lynch, the town doesn't control the vote anymore, although the game isn't quite over.
B: He flips scum but not redirector. Wildfire shoots and hits a cultist. Scum kills probably Hans.
This leaves us with:
9 alive, 5 to lynch. 1 probable scum remaining + queen with 2 living drones.
This translates to 1 scum, 3 cult, 5 town. Town controls the lynch but is based forced to queenhunt. QyLo.
C: He flips town. Wildfire no-shoots. Scum kill Hans.
This leaves us with:
10 alive, 6 to lynch. 2 probable scum remaining + queen with 3 drones.
This translates to 2 scum, 4 cult, 4 town. Town does not control the lynch but the game isn't over.
D: He flips town. Wildfire shoots and hits a cultist. Scum kill Hans.
This leaves us with:
9 alive, 5 to lynch. 2 scum, 3 cult, 4 town. Town controls the lynch but is in a really awkward position.
E: He flips town. Wildfire shoots and hits town. Scum kill Hans.
9 alive, 5 to lynch. 2 scum, 4 cult, 3 town. Town is basically kingmaker.
F: He flips town. Wildfire shoots and hits scum. Scum kill Hans.
9 alive, 5 to lynch. 1 scum, 4 cult, 4 town. Scum is basically kingmaker.
G: He flips Queen and all drones die with him. Wildfire no-shoots. Scum kill Hans.
7 alive, 4 to lynch. 2 scum, 5 town. Town is favored to win, I think.
H: He flips Queen and all drones die with him. Wildfire shoots and hits town. Scum kill Hans.
6 alive, 4 to lynch. 2 scum, 4 town. Town is in LyLo.
I'm assuming Hans will get shot toNight because we don't have any more protection / tracking that I'm aware of from the massclaim.
Some conclusions:
-) If the Queen flips, Wildfire shouldn't shoot because the redirector exists which will put us into 4-2 LyLo.
-) If Wildfire shoots into the redirector and is moved to target a cultist, that's good for us.
-) If Wildfire shoots into the redirector and is moved to target a non-cult town, that's bad for us.
-) If we hit the redirector, that might be the best case scenario because then scum is down to 1 and Wildfire has free reign. As long as he hits the remaining scum, the queen, or a cultist, we're probably in pretty good shape.
Kami has proven his role to be namecop (possibly with rolecop attached?)/queen. If we're going to hunt the redirector and try to free up Wildfire, it has to be in this cluster of players;
Wheat
Rhand
LnG
TCM?
Killjoy?
Karn?
TCM and Killjoy are both kind of weird scenarios. TCM could easily be fake-claiming his role, and just made it as obscure / confusing as possible because of the game we're in. It's ballsy to claim cop in a massclaim, but maybe he figured that with a full tracker and a JoaT vs 2x SK + maybecult + scum it balances out. Who knows.
Killjoy has proven that he's a doublevoter, but he may be a doublevoter+. Same with Karn. He might be just an ascetic, or he might be an ascetic+.
The razor points to Wheat but I just don't think I can agree with it. The role just makes sense for town to have and his targets make sense too. Rhand doesn't make much sense, though I could see LnG.
Kami is the safe lynch. I don't see him as being town regardless of anything else. If we want to get frisky and high risk/high reward it, then we need to find the redirector and we've got 2 days to do it.
Karn is off. It's not just that he was lurking or that I don't believe he'd have no opinion of the game on that post (and I don't) it's all of the other reasons I've said. The feeling I got from his post was what triggered the vote and shifted my priority, though.
Iso my posts this game both in general, then about Karn, then feel bad about your conclusion, and then lend your two votes either to Karn or Kami.
You implied heavily that you could not be scum because the small number of VT claims indicated that those claims were all true. I disagree, and the rule of three disproves the idea that all three claims must be true. Did I then use it as extra leverage? Damn right I did; I'll take any nail to help shut the lid on your coffin.
No, I will not be voting LnGrrrR if you somehow aren't scum because I don't think he is scum. The main crux of my argument against you is your shifty response to TCM and it always has been; the rule of three is merely supporting reasoning and *NOT* a guarantee.
I only think the rule of three is applicable in this case because I'm pretty sure you're scum.
Your implying routine is getting boring. Stop putting words in my mouth please.
I like how that theory of 3 is only applicable if it helps getting me lynches. You're full of ****.
Can we lynch Wheat now please?
I'll stop implying if you start telling me what you really mean when I'm supposedly wrong about what you mean. As far as I see it there is *0* reason for you to ask me if I believe there are only two VTs if you aren't trying to make me think that there have to be 3 VTs. What's your version then, if my assumption is wrong?
Read my ******* post again if you think I'm full of *****, I explained EXACTLY why I think that way. Stop misrepping my intentions.
I am spending a lot of time laying out reasoning on you and your refusal to explain why you think it's wrong speaks volumes.
Please can we lynch Kami before I feel compelled to drop my vote on Rhand and never move it? I'm getting really close to doing that but Kami is the better lynch.
I don't know how many vt's there are supposed to be Wheat. I have no previous experience with this mod.
The question was solely meant to look at your mindset.
I am in the stage of the game where I am just starting to get pissed. I have nothing really to add, and we have a deadline with a good chunk of players that just disappear, with an impending deadline. 2 sks, a mafia, and a god damn cult.
I had KJ's exact same thought process. A mod confirmed town masonry with a cultist lurking about, alongside an innocent child? I wouldn't be surprised if Hooker was unable to be transformed just based off how bastardy that would be that mod confirmed could be changed....
Arian, KJ might as well be confirmed town. Mafia with double voting is almost as absurdly stupid as lynch resistant, or does anyone remember AI's Clan Game a year or two ago?
For the deadline, I am either going Karn or WG. I have no issue policy lynching Karn at this stage. We can't afford a replacement at this stage and the thought of expanding this day into the holiday break is just upsetting.
You implied heavily that you could not be scum because the small number of VT claims indicated that those claims were all true. I disagree, and the rule of three disproves the idea that all three claims must be true. Did I then use it as extra leverage? Damn right I did; I'll take any nail to help shut the lid on your coffin.
No, I will not be voting LnGrrrR if you somehow aren't scum because I don't think he is scum. The main crux of my argument against you is your shifty response to TCM and it always has been; the rule of three is merely supporting reasoning and *NOT* a guarantee.
I only think the rule of three is applicable in this case because I'm pretty sure you're scum.
Your implying routine is getting boring. Stop putting words in my mouth please.
I like how that theory of 3 is only applicable if it helps getting me lynches. You're full of ****.
Can we lynch Wheat now please?
I'll stop implying if you start telling me what you really mean when I'm supposedly wrong about what you mean. As far as I see it there is *0* reason for you to ask me if I believe there are only two VTs if you aren't trying to make me think that there have to be 3 VTs. What's your version then, if my assumption is wrong?
Read my ******* post again if you think I'm full of *****, I explained EXACTLY why I think that way. Stop misrepping my intentions.
I am spending a lot of time laying out reasoning on you and your refusal to explain why you think it's wrong speaks volumes.
Please can we lynch Kami before I feel compelled to drop my vote on Rhand and never move it? I'm getting really close to doing that but Kami is the better lynch.
My reponse to dropping a vote on Rhand at this stage:
I am in the stage of the game where I am just starting to get pissed. I have nothing really to add, and we have a deadline with a good chunk of players that just disappear, with an impending deadline. 2 sks, a mafia, and a god damn cult.
I had KJ's exact same thought process. A mod confirmed town masonry with a cultist lurking about, alongside an innocent child? I wouldn't be surprised if Hooker was unable to be transformed just based off how bastardy that would be that mod confirmed could be changed....
Arian, KJ might as well be confirmed town. Mafia with double voting is almost as absurdly stupid as lynch resistant, or does anyone remember AI's Clan Game a year or two ago?
For the deadline, I am either going Karn or WG. I have no issue policy lynching Karn at this stage. We can't afford a replacement at this stage and the thought of expanding this day into the holiday break is just upsetting.
This is part of the reason I want an updated votecount. I'm not actually sure if it's possible to come to a lynch consensus at this point, given that LnG is already on V/LA and, as you noted, multiple players in this game are prone to just vanishing. Plus all of the remaining factions.
As for KJ, I'm also used to Iso games and have experienced at least one mafia double-voter (I think he got up to a triple voter, actually) who was also a godfather cause why the **** not. I'm aware of the difference between Iso games and reality, but I'm also more open to possibilities, and Annorax is about one step further than Iso on the setup scale. I will not consider KJ confirmed town until he flips. Down on my list of suspects, sure...but confirmed? No. Same with the Masons. The mason gambit is still not out of the realm of possibility. It's very frustrating.
Since nobody seems to want to take a potshot in the dark and look for the redirector as per my post above, how about this.
If you are not voting for Kami, post why in the next 24 hours or change your vote.
What do you mean "look for the redirector"? The only post I assume you are referencing is the one that has your theory on what happens on the flip of today.
I will not be voting kami. He is one of the few PRs who has confirmed his role, even though role cop isn't auto town. WG/Karn should be the lynch today, the former for basically scum posting, his interactions with Rhand, and while I was looking back yesterday, his interaction/defense of kpaca's "gotcha" looked a lot like distancing between him and Kpaca. The latter I would do basically on policy. I don't really have much of his today's action as he is been too lurky, but his posts while here have been almost irrelevant.
As far as KJ goes, I could not see any reason for him to reveal his double vote unless he was forced to claim before. As a mafia, keeping that in the dark means they can speed lynch an extra day ahead than normal (I want to hear about these games later Arianrhod, OoG).
What do you mean "look for the redirector"? The only post I assume you are referencing is the one that has your theory on what happens on the flip of today.
I will not be voting kami. He is one of the few PRs who has confirmed his role, even though role cop isn't auto town. WG/Karn should be the lynch today, the former for basically scum posting, his interactions with Rhand, and while I was looking back yesterday, his interaction/defense of kpaca's "gotcha" looked a lot like distancing between him and Kpaca. The latter I would do basically on policy. I don't really have much of his today's action as he is been too lurky, but his posts while here have been almost irrelevant.
As far as KJ goes, I could not see any reason for him to reveal his double vote unless he was forced to claim before. As a mafia, keeping that in the dark means they can speed lynch an extra day ahead than normal (I want to hear about these games later Arianrhod, OoG).
Our strongest asset atm is Wildfire, and he's hindered at this point by the existence of the redirector. I don't think that's so much a theory as it is a fact.
Logically I can agree with a Wheat lynch. Heck, I've even pointed out a couple of reasons why he is a good lynch myself. But I can't convince my intuition to agree with my logic. Wheat is a strong option for the high risk/high reward lynch. I still think that Kami is a safer choice.
Do you not think that there's too much of an overlap between you and Kami's roles for them both to be town...especially when you add on a full Tracker and a JoaT with at least one intel shot on top of that?
I agree with wanting to lynch Karn on policy if nothing else, but I'm considering him a VI toDay. He's on my to-do list for Tomorrow.
I'll see what memories I can dredge up for you. The one I was referring to was Cyan's role in Survival Horror if you want to look that up. I want to say I've seen it once before too, but I can't remember off the top of my head where.
While true, you also state that even if we successfully get the re director today, Wildfire shooting is incredibly risky, assuming queen has had maximum success rate.
I will vote Kami if nothing else can occur, simply because a no-lynch is by far the worse thing to do. WG is my vote for now, ill check back in a few hours, as tomorrow I don't know how my posting will be.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Ok. II can't see that role on the queen. There's apossibility that Kami is scum with burr and dc, but outing all three of them is awfully risky, so I'm leaning Kami is town then.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
We have to lynch, so I will vote Kami if necessary.
But... I get the jibbers from Arian's post. With us accepting his miller claim very early on, he's a very good drone target. And his reasoning for not wanting to lynch Wheat isn't one at all. My gut screams that lynching Wheat is lynching the queen.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
Did I not say that I don't want to lynch Rhand over Kami toDay
Did I not say that in the post I quoted
---
I'm really disappointed that Wildfire calls Rhand's post apt after he spent a whole page being inept.
I'm even more disappointed that no one is taking anything I say seriously.
/barn
I'm done trying to analyze this game. Do whatever you want. I will go to my grave believing that Kami's role could be either queen or scum and is the correct lynch. Town!Kami is a laughable opinion and you should feel ashamed of yourself for holding it. Enough's enough.
Lynch Wheat. Lynch me. Lynch ******* Wildfire for all I care. Maybe I'll check in tomorrow, maybe I won't. Very disillusioned and pissed off.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
It makes no sense to lynch DC because he's the stronger player between he and Bur, and he and Bur are definitely the same alignment. However it doubly makes no sense to lynch either because Bur is definitely town which I have stated over and over.
Arian I'd rather see vigged than lynched, but I'm starting to feel similarly bad about him. I sort of want him around though because he's the only person listening to any reason whatsoever and I'll go insane otherwise.
Kami needs to be the lynch toDay. Rhand is literally the only person I will support a lynch on besides Kami.
Killjoy is town because of his behavior Today, not just his role - his play (i.e. saying I'm scum for the reason I pushed Karn and then also still saying he wants to lynch Karn) isn't worried about consistency in an area where scum are likely to think it's too obvious to be inconsistent. There's also no way he'd push against me and Bur in the way that he is as scum, I don't think.
But dude, pull it together and read me and really think.
Anyway, I caught Karn as scum in Dinosaurs for two main things:
Being too certain of players alignment while defending them early in the game where it didn't feel right.
Fading way into the back ground later in the game when he wasn't under a lot of scrutiny.
Those are over simplifications - but prior to this game Karn hadn't been efforting much at all. See Celestial. He'd do "just enough" to get by, and give his reads. He didn't defend anyone, especially early game. I'm pretty sure he was so adamant of his defense of Tan because he knew the flip and wanted to be the outspoken voice against it. Note the push against KCC there - he knew he wouldn't get traction against her, but wanted to say that the Tan wagon was bad loudly.
I called him on it later and he said that he figured if he wasn't going to play, why play. That was believable enough but still felt off. He also later pulled out the AtE about how he didn't care when he was getting called out on his quietness. This was after he spent some time establishing his untargetableness. So he efforted to be against the Tan lynch, he efforted to establish his role and then, as a player who was thought to be town at the time based on his role, he faded away and just said that Wheat was scum but didn't try to drive it other than just saying that one of his quotes was scummy.
I've seen town Karn not try to drive his read, either, but it felt even less so here - and then the way he claimed the Wheat read Yesterday in the way that he did compared to what he actually did with it also felt off.
Then Kpaca comes in and claims bulletproof. Karn doesn't bat an eye. No concern over the role contrasted with his, no anything. Still just interested in voting Wheat. Can't imagine he wouldn't have taken more interest in that as town if another player claimed bulletproof when he was untargetable.
Those are the main reasons - he just feels off. Taking vocal stances early to defend a player isn't something I like from him, especially in a game this size, and the way the game has flowed has just felt too familiar. The reason I voted him when he returned is that he just kind of casually played the "I haven't read anything since my last post" move. Firstly, I really doubt that he wouldn't have peeked in at all over that period of time if he was still on the site. It's just really unlikely that he wouldn't have been curious enough to see what was going on - and I think town Karn would have had something to say there - because town Karn doesn't feel the need to elaborate most of the time on his thoughts.
Is it possible he really just had a complete blind spot to this game and didn't have anything to add? Sure it is, but it doesn't seem likely, especially in the context of all of that other stuff he's done that gives me the jibblies this game.
And with two SKs and mafia, making the Queen untargetable doesn't seem out of bounds.
This deadline is going to kill us... We need 7 voters. If we want the queen dead and she never missed a shot, then that means we only have 8 not-drones, among which probably all the scum.
With half the game not posting, that ain't gonna happen.
I have a crazy theory. It seems we all agree that the queen is among Wheat, Kami and Karn.
If the queen did her job right, then we are in her lylo now if Wildfire shoots. Tomorrow if he doesn't.
Let's say we let him shoot. Them scum is forced to try to kill the queen as well or they lose with town to borg.
So I say we lynch Karn because he can't be killed; Wildfire shoots Wheat, forcing scum to shoot Kami. If toMorrow Kami is alive, we know he's scum and scum tried to find the queen elsewhere.
Scum can't redirect Wildfire unless they know Wheat isn't queen. In which case Wheat is scum.
This plan greatly increases our chamces to get the queen toNight because it forces scum to work with us and they have more knowledge as to who it can't be.
Now before I vote Karn: is there a flaw in this plan?
If the situation is that dire and the queen has that many recruits, this plan puts us on scum lylo. (3 bodies from plan, 4 bodies from dead cult -> 5 alive with 2 scum if Kami isn't scum). The scum may gamble that the situation isn't in fact that dire and make the town lynch the queen instead, which will still very likely put us on scum lylo (3 bodies from plan, 2 bodies from another nightcycle without Wildfire shot, 2-3 bodies from dead cult. This is EVEN WORSE if Wildfire shoots incorrectly again or the queen only failed one recruitment all game).
Plus, the only way I see scum in that pick of three is if Kami is the queen. It's too risky for me to be willing.
We're on scum lylo as soon as we kill the queen anyhow - assuming she recruited well? I don't see how this plan changes that.
If scum doesn't try to kill the queen, they will all have to vote together on 1 person. Borgs can't bus their queen. I don't think they'll go that path.
KoolKoal: Feel free to take this with a grain of salt since self meta isn't particularly helpful, but I think I get scumread mostly for style over substance, but also for a certain lack of substance over style. It's not so much what I AM posting most of the time (though sometimes that can seem bad) but what I'm NOT posting. I've been told I come to non-obvious conclusions a lot, so when I post, quite a bit of the time there's jumps in logic that people can't follow and they think that's scummy. I get that accusation about a lot of questions I ask specifically. People call them "busy work" when the questions are legit etc.
As far as things to ignore, I can't think of anything. I would suggest you focus less on what I'm doing and more on how I'm doing it. That's probably more likely to be accurate. Like I've just said, what I do tends to come off a little weird, but if you look for how I do it, mindset comes into play and maybe you figure out something useful.
I'm not taking my vote off of Wheat. Karn is both unlikely to be the queen and next to impossible to be the redirector, and seems like the WORST lynch of the big ones right now.
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I just woke up; Bur/DCIII cannot have the queen among them I forgot about that.
LnGrrrR I guess for the third? I could see a TNS on the VT claims I guess (town-neutral-scum). I think the queen is very likely within Arian and Kami now that I think about it some more.
Who do you believe are the likely queens at this point then? Name 3.
Kami
Wheat
TCM
In approximate descending order. I'm pretty sure Wheat is the redirector, otherwise it almost has to be TCM, and Wheat is almost certainly the redirector if he's not the Queen. Kami's "Namecop" role is extremely easy to fake as the Queen, since you'd presumably be able to learn the person's name after recruiting them, but that would have to mean that Bur has been recruited. I'd really like to see Wheat lynched because if he's not the Queen, he's most likely the redirector and we get another shot at the queen toNight.
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If we lynch possible queen #1 and he flips not queen, then we force scum to shoot possible queen #2 while you can shoot possible queen #3.
We just have to somehow agree on at least 2 of them, and have to be pretty damn sure it isn't Karn if we want to not lynch Karn.
How sure are you about that? Why? What makes it impossible for him to be queen?
@Wheat: Arian? Do you think the queen would open with a miller gambit - facing a possible counterclaim?
If we lynch possible queen #1 and he flips not queen, then we force scum to shoot possible queen #2 while you can shoot possible queen #3.
We just have to somehow agree on at least 2 of them, and have to be pretty damn sure it isn't Karn if we want to not lynch Karn.
How sure are you about that? Why? What makes it impossible for him to be queen?
@Wheat: Arian? Do you think the queen would open with a miller gambit - facing a possible counterclaim?
How do we "force" the scum to shoot who we believe to be the Queen?
I'd be very surprised if Karn was the Queen given that he's a proven Ascetic, and likely a proven Bulletproof Ascetic too. (I say likely because it's possible that BV's kill is treated as a non-killing ability because it behaves differently.) That seems like an outrageously imbalanced set of abilities for a cult leader to have.
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If we lynch possible queen #1 and he flips not queen, then we force scum to shoot possible queen #2 while you can shoot possible queen #3.
We just have to somehow agree on at least 2 of them, and have to be pretty damn sure it isn't Karn if we want to not lynch Karn.
How sure are you about that? Why? What makes it impossible for him to be queen?
@Wheat: Arian? Do you think the queen would open with a miller gambit - facing a possible counterclaim?
How do we "force" the scum to shoot who we believe to be the Queen?
I'd be very surprised if Karn was the Queen given that he's a proven Ascetic, and likely a proven Bulletproof Ascetic too. (I say likely because it's possible that BV's kill is treated as a non-killing ability because it behaves differently.) That seems like an outrageously imbalanced set of abilities for a cult leader to have.
We can't. But the possible queen list is short and they have to shoot in it if they don't want to lose to the queen if we didn't catch her by lynch.
Rhand - can be queen but same reasoning as lngr
KamikazeArchon - can be queen
Hansanator - proven doc; not queen
Wildfire393 - proven vig; not queen
LnGrrrR - can be queen but extremely unlikely with VT role knowledge
Tammy The Cold Monarch - can be queen
Bur - can't be queen (DCIII)
Wheat_Grinder - can be queen
Arianrhod - can be queen but extremely unlikely with miller claim
Sir Karn - can be queen
DCIII - can't be queen (Bur)
Killjoy - proven doublevoter; not queen
So the queen should be in {Karn; Wheat; TCM; Kami}
If we take out 2 of those, scum has to shoot one of the other two. They simply HAVE to queenhunt. Gambling and not doing it may end the game with a queen win.
So whoever is not scum out of the remaining 2 will end up dead.
Okay. So we lynch Wheat, I shoot Kami, and we hope the scum shoot TCM - if he's not the queen, he's a Cop of some sort so he's a high value target anyways. We can lynch Karn tomorrow if somehow the queen doesn't flip in that bunch. I really think that as a proven Untargetable, he's extremely unlikely to be the queen.
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The thing is - if I am right about those 4 - if among the last two there is a scum, we are garanteed that the queen dies.
But that doesn't work if Karn is among those 2.
We've just had a redirecting SK in Wu Tang. And I was a commuting SK with Generic before.
It would not surprise me for the queen to have a protective side as well.
I do think that Wheat and Kami are more plausible, but I want us to cover all our grounds here.
The thing is - if I am right about those 4 - if among the last two there is a scum, we are garanteed that the queen dies.
But that doesn't work if Karn is among those 2.
We've just had a redirecting SK in Wu Tang. And I was a commuting SK with Generic before.
It would not surprise me for the queen to have a protective side as well.
I do think that Wheat and Kami are more plausible, but I want us to cover all our grounds here.
SK and Cult are very different monsters. Having a Cult leader be immune to NKs, tracking, copping, and everything else flying around that game is incredibly imbalanced.
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Tell me: will you be auto-voting LnGr when I flip town?
No, I will not be voting LnGrrrR if you somehow aren't scum because I don't think he is scum. The main crux of my argument against you is your shifty response to TCM and it always has been; the rule of three is merely supporting reasoning and *NOT* a guarantee.
I only think the rule of three is applicable in this case because I'm pretty sure you're scum.
I don't know where we stand in queenville but I don't feel good about the Wheat lynch atm. It feels "we don't know what else to doish." Kami would be good but I'd also really like this.
Unvote: Vote: Karn
His overt defense of Tan early and his efforting only to stop doing anything later when he thought his role confirmed him. His lack of interest in Kpaca when he claimed bulletproof despite being untargetable. And there was an "I don't care right now" post from earlier I also didn't like.
Sheep me as you should have on Teia both D1 and 2. Thanks!
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I would, however, really like to see him either prodded or replaced; he needs to be in here and posting.
Rhand: unless queen recruited n0, then you're probably not the queen. If you recruited Arian, then there's apossibility. Wheat I'm not sure about. Idon't think he's queen, but he could have been recruited maybe. I'm not excluding him completely.
Wildfire: if you do decide to shoot, and Karn is not the queen, shoot KA. This queen needs to die.
Your implying routine is getting boring. Stop putting words in my mouth please.
I like how that theory of 3 is only applicable if it helps getting me lynches. You're full of ****.
Can we lynch Wheat now please?
KJ, explain how that post is not a town post.
Let's go through some scenarios.
Say we lynch Kami.
A: He flips scum but not redirector. Wildfire no-shoots. Scum kills probably Hans.
This leaves us with:
10 alive, 6 to lynch. 1 probable scum remaining + queen with, let's say 2 drones. I think we can assume that the queen would have a 50% success chance. Actually, let's set the marker at 3 (75%). That's much more conservative and plays to risks.
This translates to 1 scum, 4 cult, 5 town. If it's 6 to lynch, the town doesn't control the vote anymore, although the game isn't quite over.
B: He flips scum but not redirector. Wildfire shoots and hits a cultist. Scum kills probably Hans.
This leaves us with:
9 alive, 5 to lynch. 1 probable scum remaining + queen with 2 living drones.
This translates to 1 scum, 3 cult, 5 town. Town controls the lynch but is based forced to queenhunt. QyLo.
C: He flips town. Wildfire no-shoots. Scum kill Hans.
This leaves us with:
10 alive, 6 to lynch. 2 probable scum remaining + queen with 3 drones.
This translates to 2 scum, 4 cult, 4 town. Town does not control the lynch but the game isn't over.
D: He flips town. Wildfire shoots and hits a cultist. Scum kill Hans.
This leaves us with:
9 alive, 5 to lynch. 2 scum, 3 cult, 4 town. Town controls the lynch but is in a really awkward position.
E: He flips town. Wildfire shoots and hits town. Scum kill Hans.
9 alive, 5 to lynch. 2 scum, 4 cult, 3 town. Town is basically kingmaker.
F: He flips town. Wildfire shoots and hits scum. Scum kill Hans.
9 alive, 5 to lynch. 1 scum, 4 cult, 4 town. Scum is basically kingmaker.
G: He flips Queen and all drones die with him. Wildfire no-shoots. Scum kill Hans.
7 alive, 4 to lynch. 2 scum, 5 town. Town is favored to win, I think.
H: He flips Queen and all drones die with him. Wildfire shoots and hits town. Scum kill Hans.
6 alive, 4 to lynch. 2 scum, 4 town. Town is in LyLo.
I'm assuming Hans will get shot toNight because we don't have any more protection / tracking that I'm aware of from the massclaim.
Some conclusions:
-) If the Queen flips, Wildfire shouldn't shoot because the redirector exists which will put us into 4-2 LyLo.
-) If Wildfire shoots into the redirector and is moved to target a cultist, that's good for us.
-) If Wildfire shoots into the redirector and is moved to target a non-cult town, that's bad for us.
-) If we hit the redirector, that might be the best case scenario because then scum is down to 1 and Wildfire has free reign. As long as he hits the remaining scum, the queen, or a cultist, we're probably in pretty good shape.
Kami has proven his role to be namecop (possibly with rolecop attached?)/queen. If we're going to hunt the redirector and try to free up Wildfire, it has to be in this cluster of players;
Wheat
Rhand
LnG
TCM?
Killjoy?
Karn?
TCM and Killjoy are both kind of weird scenarios. TCM could easily be fake-claiming his role, and just made it as obscure / confusing as possible because of the game we're in. It's ballsy to claim cop in a massclaim, but maybe he figured that with a full tracker and a JoaT vs 2x SK + maybecult + scum it balances out. Who knows.
Killjoy has proven that he's a doublevoter, but he may be a doublevoter+. Same with Karn. He might be just an ascetic, or he might be an ascetic+.
The razor points to Wheat but I just don't think I can agree with it. The role just makes sense for town to have and his targets make sense too. Rhand doesn't make much sense, though I could see LnG.
Kami is the safe lynch. I don't see him as being town regardless of anything else. If we want to get frisky and high risk/high reward it, then we need to find the redirector and we've got 2 days to do it.
Karn is off. It's not just that he was lurking or that I don't believe he'd have no opinion of the game on that post (and I don't) it's all of the other reasons I've said. The feeling I got from his post was what triggered the vote and shifted my priority, though.
Iso my posts this game both in general, then about Karn, then feel bad about your conclusion, and then lend your two votes either to Karn or Kami.
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I'll stop implying if you start telling me what you really mean when I'm supposedly wrong about what you mean. As far as I see it there is *0* reason for you to ask me if I believe there are only two VTs if you aren't trying to make me think that there have to be 3 VTs. What's your version then, if my assumption is wrong?
Read my ******* post again if you think I'm full of *****, I explained EXACTLY why I think that way. Stop misrepping my intentions.
I am spending a lot of time laying out reasoning on you and your refusal to explain why you think it's wrong speaks volumes.
Please can we lynch Kami before I feel compelled to drop my vote on Rhand and never move it? I'm getting really close to doing that but Kami is the better lynch.
The question was solely meant to look at your mindset.
I had KJ's exact same thought process. A mod confirmed town masonry with a cultist lurking about, alongside an innocent child? I wouldn't be surprised if Hooker was unable to be transformed just based off how bastardy that would be that mod confirmed could be changed....
Arian, KJ might as well be confirmed town. Mafia with double voting is almost as absurdly stupid as lynch resistant, or does anyone remember AI's Clan Game a year or two ago?
For the deadline, I am either going Karn or WG. I have no issue policy lynching Karn at this stage. We can't afford a replacement at this stage and the thought of expanding this day into the holiday break is just upsetting.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
My reponse to dropping a vote on Rhand at this stage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Iv4jzVapDs
The GJ way path to no lynching:
This is part of the reason I want an updated votecount. I'm not actually sure if it's possible to come to a lynch consensus at this point, given that LnG is already on V/LA and, as you noted, multiple players in this game are prone to just vanishing. Plus all of the remaining factions.
As for KJ, I'm also used to Iso games and have experienced at least one mafia double-voter (I think he got up to a triple voter, actually) who was also a godfather cause why the **** not. I'm aware of the difference between Iso games and reality, but I'm also more open to possibilities, and Annorax is about one step further than Iso on the setup scale. I will not consider KJ confirmed town until he flips. Down on my list of suspects, sure...but confirmed? No. Same with the Masons. The mason gambit is still not out of the realm of possibility. It's very frustrating.
Since nobody seems to want to take a potshot in the dark and look for the redirector as per my post above, how about this.
If you are not voting for Kami, post why in the next 24 hours or change your vote.
I will not be voting kami. He is one of the few PRs who has confirmed his role, even though role cop isn't auto town. WG/Karn should be the lynch today, the former for basically scum posting, his interactions with Rhand, and while I was looking back yesterday, his interaction/defense of kpaca's "gotcha" looked a lot like distancing between him and Kpaca. The latter I would do basically on policy. I don't really have much of his today's action as he is been too lurky, but his posts while here have been almost irrelevant.
As far as KJ goes, I could not see any reason for him to reveal his double vote unless he was forced to claim before. As a mafia, keeping that in the dark means they can speed lynch an extra day ahead than normal (I want to hear about these games later Arianrhod, OoG).
The GJ way path to no lynching:
Our strongest asset atm is Wildfire, and he's hindered at this point by the existence of the redirector. I don't think that's so much a theory as it is a fact.
Logically I can agree with a Wheat lynch. Heck, I've even pointed out a couple of reasons why he is a good lynch myself. But I can't convince my intuition to agree with my logic. Wheat is a strong option for the high risk/high reward lynch. I still think that Kami is a safer choice.
Do you not think that there's too much of an overlap between you and Kami's roles for them both to be town...especially when you add on a full Tracker and a JoaT with at least one intel shot on top of that?
I agree with wanting to lynch Karn on policy if nothing else, but I'm considering him a VI toDay. He's on my to-do list for Tomorrow.
I'll see what memories I can dredge up for you. The one I was referring to was Cyan's role in Survival Horror if you want to look that up. I want to say I've seen it once before too, but I can't remember off the top of my head where.
If Queenhunting is what we're doing right now, lynching me is the worst plan. Every night I'm alive I have a chance to find the queen.
I will vote Kami if nothing else can occur, simply because a no-lynch is by far the worse thing to do. WG is my vote for now, ill check back in a few hours, as tomorrow I don't know how my posting will be.
The GJ way path to no lynching:
But... I get the jibbers from Arian's post. With us accepting his miller claim very early on, he's a very good drone target. And his reasoning for not wanting to lynch Wheat isn't one at all. My gut screams that lynching Wheat is lynching the queen.
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Did I not say that I don't want to lynch Rhand over Kami toDay
Did I not say that in the post I quoted
---
I'm really disappointed that Wildfire calls Rhand's post apt after he spent a whole page being inept.
I'm even more disappointed that no one is taking anything I say seriously.
/barn
I'm done trying to analyze this game. Do whatever you want. I will go to my grave believing that Kami's role could be either queen or scum and is the correct lynch. Town!Kami is a laughable opinion and you should feel ashamed of yourself for holding it. Enough's enough.
Lynch Wheat. Lynch me. Lynch ******* Wildfire for all I care. Maybe I'll check in tomorrow, maybe I won't. Very disillusioned and pissed off.
I'd rather lynch dc, or Arian over wheat. Karn needs to check in though.
Arian I'd rather see vigged than lynched, but I'm starting to feel similarly bad about him. I sort of want him around though because he's the only person listening to any reason whatsoever and I'll go insane otherwise.
Kami needs to be the lynch toDay. Rhand is literally the only person I will support a lynch on besides Kami.
But dude, pull it together and read me and really think.
Anyway, I caught Karn as scum in Dinosaurs for two main things:
Being too certain of players alignment while defending them early in the game where it didn't feel right.
Fading way into the back ground later in the game when he wasn't under a lot of scrutiny.
Those are over simplifications - but prior to this game Karn hadn't been efforting much at all. See Celestial. He'd do "just enough" to get by, and give his reads. He didn't defend anyone, especially early game. I'm pretty sure he was so adamant of his defense of Tan because he knew the flip and wanted to be the outspoken voice against it. Note the push against KCC there - he knew he wouldn't get traction against her, but wanted to say that the Tan wagon was bad loudly.
I called him on it later and he said that he figured if he wasn't going to play, why play. That was believable enough but still felt off. He also later pulled out the AtE about how he didn't care when he was getting called out on his quietness. This was after he spent some time establishing his untargetableness. So he efforted to be against the Tan lynch, he efforted to establish his role and then, as a player who was thought to be town at the time based on his role, he faded away and just said that Wheat was scum but didn't try to drive it other than just saying that one of his quotes was scummy.
I've seen town Karn not try to drive his read, either, but it felt even less so here - and then the way he claimed the Wheat read Yesterday in the way that he did compared to what he actually did with it also felt off.
Then Kpaca comes in and claims bulletproof. Karn doesn't bat an eye. No concern over the role contrasted with his, no anything. Still just interested in voting Wheat. Can't imagine he wouldn't have taken more interest in that as town if another player claimed bulletproof when he was untargetable.
Those are the main reasons - he just feels off. Taking vocal stances early to defend a player isn't something I like from him, especially in a game this size, and the way the game has flowed has just felt too familiar. The reason I voted him when he returned is that he just kind of casually played the "I haven't read anything since my last post" move. Firstly, I really doubt that he wouldn't have peeked in at all over that period of time if he was still on the site. It's just really unlikely that he wouldn't have been curious enough to see what was going on - and I think town Karn would have had something to say there - because town Karn doesn't feel the need to elaborate most of the time on his thoughts.
Is it possible he really just had a complete blind spot to this game and didn't have anything to add? Sure it is, but it doesn't seem likely, especially in the context of all of that other stuff he's done that gives me the jibblies this game.
And with two SKs and mafia, making the Queen untargetable doesn't seem out of bounds.
So... those are my Karn thoughts.
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With half the game not posting, that ain't gonna happen.
I have a crazy theory. It seems we all agree that the queen is among Wheat, Kami and Karn.
If the queen did her job right, then we are in her lylo now if Wildfire shoots. Tomorrow if he doesn't.
Let's say we let him shoot. Them scum is forced to try to kill the queen as well or they lose with town to borg.
So I say we lynch Karn because he can't be killed; Wildfire shoots Wheat, forcing scum to shoot Kami. If toMorrow Kami is alive, we know he's scum and scum tried to find the queen elsewhere.
Scum can't redirect Wildfire unless they know Wheat isn't queen. In which case Wheat is scum.
This plan greatly increases our chamces to get the queen toNight because it forces scum to work with us and they have more knowledge as to who it can't be.
Now before I vote Karn: is there a flaw in this plan?
Plus, the only way I see scum in that pick of three is if Kami is the queen. It's too risky for me to be willing.
If scum doesn't try to kill the queen, they will all have to vote together on 1 person. Borgs can't bus their queen. I don't think they'll go that path.
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LnGrrrR I guess for the third? I could see a TNS on the VT claims I guess (town-neutral-scum). I think the queen is very likely within Arian and Kami now that I think about it some more.
Kami
Wheat
TCM
In approximate descending order. I'm pretty sure Wheat is the redirector, otherwise it almost has to be TCM, and Wheat is almost certainly the redirector if he's not the Queen. Kami's "Namecop" role is extremely easy to fake as the Queen, since you'd presumably be able to learn the person's name after recruiting them, but that would have to mean that Bur has been recruited. I'd really like to see Wheat lynched because if he's not the Queen, he's most likely the redirector and we get another shot at the queen toNight.
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We just have to somehow agree on at least 2 of them, and have to be pretty damn sure it isn't Karn if we want to not lynch Karn.
How sure are you about that? Why? What makes it impossible for him to be queen?
@Wheat: Arian? Do you think the queen would open with a miller gambit - facing a possible counterclaim?
Yeah, no, I don't believe it. I only really see Kami as a queen candidate.
But therefore when he's the only queen candidate I don't really want to have to trust the scum to it.
How do we "force" the scum to shoot who we believe to be the Queen?
I'd be very surprised if Karn was the Queen given that he's a proven Ascetic, and likely a proven Bulletproof Ascetic too. (I say likely because it's possible that BV's kill is treated as a non-killing ability because it behaves differently.) That seems like an outrageously imbalanced set of abilities for a cult leader to have.
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I'm still going to look at Megiddo's ass sometimes though.
We can't. But the possible queen list is short and they have to shoot in it if they don't want to lose to the queen if we didn't catch her by lynch.
Rhand - can be queen but same reasoning as lngr
KamikazeArchon - can be queen
Hansanator - proven doc; not queen
Wildfire393 - proven vig; not queen
LnGrrrR - can be queen but extremely unlikely with VT role knowledge
Tammy The Cold Monarch - can be queen
Bur - can't be queen (DCIII)
Wheat_Grinder - can be queen
Arianrhod - can be queen but extremely unlikely with miller claim
Sir Karn - can be queen
DCIII - can't be queen (Bur)
Killjoy - proven doublevoter; not queen
So the queen should be in {Karn; Wheat; TCM; Kami}
If we take out 2 of those, scum has to shoot one of the other two. They simply HAVE to queenhunt. Gambling and not doing it may end the game with a queen win.
So whoever is not scum out of the remaining 2 will end up dead.
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But that doesn't work if Karn is among those 2.
We've just had a redirecting SK in Wu Tang. And I was a commuting SK with Generic before.
It would not surprise me for the queen to have a protective side as well.
I do think that Wheat and Kami are more plausible, but I want us to cover all our grounds here.
Scum might know more and screw around for the extra kill.
SK and Cult are very different monsters. Having a Cult leader be immune to NKs, tracking, copping, and everything else flying around that game is incredibly imbalanced.
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The GJ way path to no lynching: