Not directly, but I guess if I read between the lines.
If we're not lynching you today, I'm going to need a convincing case on somebody else. And that somebody else should probably not be one of the power roles. So take your pick: DCIII, Kosa, kpaca, or Cantrip/Generic, and lay me out a convincing argument. Better yet, point me to both of the scum in those four. Otherwise, I don't see a way you're not ending up on the chopping block, one way or another, toDay.
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An SK is significantly different than giving those things to the scum team. That does sound like a brutally OP role though... what kind of game is this? Specialty?
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It was offsite and a few ratchets up on the complexity meter, yes, and if you really want to get to the thick of it, I can pull out quite a few scum day vigs over on mafiascum.
HP - I'd like whys from you. Why on each of your reads? You'd had KoolKoal as a set up spec lynch suspect as a day vig and now you have him listed under your town reads. You just speculated on Niv's role, but have him in your town reads. I'd thought you had a town read on Generic but you have that slot not colored in. What is your reasoning for thinking as you do about each of those players?
I don't have any hard numbers on this, but I'm targeted more often than a black guy driving a beat-up sedan with a broken tail-light and no license plate, and Cy's well aware of that.
Koolkoal: I'd like you to shoot someone in the Hookerpunch, Cantrip, Niv group, preferably in that order. That might change depending on Niv's responce.
I don't have any hard numbers on this, but I'm targeted more often than a black guy driving a beat-up sedan with a broken tail-light and no license plate, and Cy's well aware of that.
I don't have any hard numbers on this, but I'm targeted more often than a black guy driving a beat-up sedan with a broken tail-light and no license plate, and Cy's well aware of that.
I feel like Cantrip would have said he was town in that frustration post if he was.
I'm thinking we let Cantrip post his thoughts and then no lynch. I'd like to analyze his flip and, if we were wrong and we're wrong again, that will put us in mylo tomorrow. If we were wrong but don't lynch, that would still give us a mislynch to play with after we know his flip for certain. I'd rather have that information available when we make the decision as Cantrip's alignment will influence my remaining reads (I'm thinking HP and Cantrip aren't scum together, for example).
If we're right, then we're in good shape anyway. Thoughts?
If we no lynch, we effectively just let KoolKoal decide our lynch for the day, and if he's only one shot, he basically wasted his power.
Kind of. But he polled the masses, we got to see who weighed in, and I'm happy with the decision. With the modkill on SNL, we're behind a kill... so a misfire with a mislynch here would cost us a Day. Better to make the smart decision rather than not trying to waste koolkoal'a ability.
Are you going to want to lynch HP regardless of Cantrip's flip? If so, why? What do you see as the benefit of lynching here prior to knowing Cantrip's alignment? We aren't gaining an extra mislynch - really we're making one of our lynches with less information this way.
I think the ideal situation would have been for Koal to hold his shot until MyLo to begin with. If we had 4 (with 1 scum) or 6 (with 2), killing the wrong person loses us the game, but killing a scum along with a mislynch still leaves us in the game.
I guess there was no way to insure that he lived until that point though.
There are four possible outcomes for Hooker and Cantrip
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching wins us the game right now
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us ahead (4/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (4/2 - MyLo) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching puts us behind (4/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (5/1 - 2 mislynches) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us down to (3/2 - MyLo) as opposed to (4/2 - MyLo), but both are LyLo
Based on that, I think it is correct to lynch today. If Hooker is Scum, it puts us up a Mislynch. If hooker is town and cantrip is town, we're LyLo either way. We only lose out if Hooker is town and Cantrip is scum.
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Wildfire, there are nine people alive, not eight. We're most likely at 7-2. Even if Cantrip is town, KoolKoal's kill and the NK brings us to 5-2 toMorrow, which is not lylo.
There are four possible outcomes for Hooker and Cantrip
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching wins us the game right now
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us ahead (5/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (5/2 - 1 mislynch) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching puts us even (5/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (6/1 - 2 mislynches) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us down to (4/2 - MyLo) as opposed to (5/2 - 1 mislynch)
So yeah, that looks less good. If hooker is scum and cantrip is town, we're even on mislynches. If Hooker is town, we lose a mislynch.
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PTAP: I'm not going to have much time for this game until tomorrow evening, but then I'll do my best to catch up and give you my thoughts before I keel over from Koal not being able to keep it in his pants. I support a No Lynch, but won't pursue it until after I've caught up.
Whether we lynch today or tomorrow, we have the same number of total lynches available before game over (see my post above).
If we don't lynch today, we still "get" today's lynch, we just get to make it after seeing Cantrip's flip.
Also, functioning under the assumption that one of the 4 vanillas is really an unclaimed Doc, we have a 1/4 chance of outing them if we decide to lynch somebody, meaning they die for sure tonight (instead of, I assume, 33/50% chance of dying overnight with 1/2 scum remaining in the vanillas and them shooting one of the vanillas hoping to hit the doc). With the Doc alive and unclaimed, we can safely assume that Fulcrum will be able to act tonight, and then ideally again tomorrow if they Doc doesn't bite it, which can really improve our odds of finding the final scum(s).
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Also, if we ARE lynching today, I'm pretty set on lynching you, and Cantrip's flip might change that, so enjoy your reprieve and try to produce something useful for tomorrow.
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Also, functioning under the assumption that one of the 4 vanillas is really an unclaimed Doc, we have a 1/4 chance of outing them if we decide to lynch somebody, meaning they die for sure tonight (instead of, I assume, 33/50% chance of dying overnight with 1/2 scum remaining in the vanillas and them shooting one of the vanillas hoping to hit the doc). With the Doc alive and unclaimed, we can safely assume that Fulcrum will be able to act tonight, and then ideally again tomorrow if they Doc doesn't bite it, which can really improve our odds of finding the final scum(s).
This kind of assumption only leads to Big Daddy-levels of WIFOM. We don't know:
- If scum have a roleblocker that could block and kill in the same Night if being the last scum standing
- If the remaining scum are indeed hiding in the VT pool
- If fulcrum is town (hint she's not)
- If we even have a doc
* If so, if it's a full doc and not an odd/even doc or Jailer or whatever
And that's a lot of ifs. I'd hit the breaks on modgaming until we have more tangible results, because as of now there are way too many variables to consider.
@Koolkoal: Why would you deny Cantrip his catch up? What if he's the doc? And even if he's scum, there was absolutely no reason to shoot him before he posted his thoughts as it could've helped us find the rest.
This kind of assumption only leads to Big Daddy-levels of WIFOM. We don't know:
- If scum have a roleblocker that could block and kill in the same Night if being the last scum standing - We're not sure if they even have a Roleblocker because Fulcrum ostensibly did not get blocked last night. If they do, I imagine that it would do that yes
- If the remaining scum are indeed hiding in the VT pool - At the moment, that is my assumption
- If fulcrum is town (hint she's not) - I'm not sold on this
- If we even have a doc - As long as we don't know that, neither do the scum, so they have to play like we do, which means Fulcrum survives
* If so, if it's a full doc and not an odd/even doc or Jailer or whatever - See above
And that's a lot of ifs. I'd hit the breaks on modgaming until we have more tangible results, because as of now there are way too many variables to consider.
It is. Are you suggesting we still go for a Lynch? If so, who is your pick?
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1. kpaca's internet issues have not been resolved yet, and therefore I am going to replace his slot. I'll begin looking now. If no replacement is found at the beginning of Day 3, I will modkill the spot to begin the day.
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"That person looks suspect" you thought to yourself. "Well... let us see if I am right!"
"Hey you. Buy you a drink?"
The guest looked puzzled; they thought to themselves "who drinks at this hour?"
"Maybe some other time."
"I insist", said the other guest. "It's been a hell of a ride so far, and well, I hate to drink alone. Who can say no to a martini?"
"Well... if you insist."
As the barkeep delivered the martinis -- gin, of course; three olives, stirred, not shaken -- a loud crash could be heard outside the bar. As patrons gawked, you wasted no time in slipping a vial of poison into your guest's martini. You smiled as you raised a toast, knowing that, soon enough, you'd be proven right or wrong.
Cantripmancer has been poisoned.
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I don't have any hard numbers on this, but I'm targeted more often than a black guy driving a beat-up sedan with a broken tail-light and no license plate, and Cy's well aware of that.
Is anyone familiar with the site history of poisoners?
Llamarble was a town poisoner in one of the Cross-Towns. Idle Muse had a poisoning ability as scum in Futurama... not sure about any others.
@HP - respond to my #1031, please.
The thing I've been mulling over is why KoolKoal didn't shoot Yesterday, especially when he hinted at being a vig type role. Feels like he should have been more worried about dying after doing that. Also, why did he want to shoot today? Possibly something he lost in a lylo or mylo situation?
I wanted to try to influence where he shot, and I think Generic was a good one, but I don't trust it. Want Cantrip's thoughts, see the flip, and then try to figure out what's going on.
Hmm.... if Kpaca gets modkilled, then that changes my numbers a bit.
Recalculating:
There are five possible outcomes for Hooker, Kpaca, and Cantrip
Hooker is Town, Cantrip and Kpaca are scum - We win anyways
Hooker is Scum, one of Cantrip or Kpaca is scum and the other is town - Lynching wins us the game, no lynch puts us to (5/1 - 1 mislynch)
All three are town - Lynching puts us down to (3/2 LyLo) as opposed to (4/2 MyLo)
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip/kpaca are Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us ahead (4/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (4/2 - 1 LyLo) tomorrow
Hooker/kpaca are Town and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching puts us behind (4/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (5/1 - 1 mislynch) tomorrow
If we assume kpaca is getting modkilled, it does make sense to lynch today. We gain a mislynch or win the game if our lynchee is scum, and if they're town, we just go from MyLo to LyLo.
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I don't have any hard numbers on this, but I'm targeted more often than a black guy driving a beat-up sedan with a broken tail-light and no license plate, and Cy's well aware of that.
Skimmed the thread. Fulcrum and Wildfire stand out as town. Niv looks scummy. HP looks very scummy. Generic/Cantrip looks somewhat scummy. Slight town lean on DCIII. Both KK's are null.
I'm vanilla.
@Wildfire: no. Also, stop modgaming. This isn't a Basic.
I'm... not really modgaming?
I'm just determining that there's really no point in lynching today, because we can lynch tomorrow and have the same number of lynches available to us, plus see Cantrip's flip from being poisoned, plus maybe see Fulcrum's overnight results.
I do agree with HP if we are lynching today though.
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If we're not lynching you today, I'm going to need a convincing case on somebody else. And that somebody else should probably not be one of the power roles. So take your pick: DCIII, Kosa, kpaca, or Cantrip/Generic, and lay me out a convincing argument. Better yet, point me to both of the scum in those four. Otherwise, I don't see a way you're not ending up on the chopping block, one way or another, toDay.
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I'm thinking Kosa isn't scum.
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Either way, we're all gonna burn
02. KoolKoal
04. Wildfire393 (r. cccccc808)
06. DCIII
07. kpaca (r. hansanator)
08. fulcrum
09. Kosakosa
10. Niv
12. Cantripmancer (r. Generic)
I'm trying to color this in but this game is awful and I can't figure out how to color it in.
Either way, we're all gonna burn
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Either way, we're all gonna burn
V/LA til Monday, going on a trip
Either way, we're all gonna burn
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Niv, I'm waiting on an answer from you.
The deadline's on hold anyhow.
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I'll update the vote count/do prod checks tonight (sorry, busy weekend with Evolution 2014 going on)
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Not Voting: KoolKoal, Wildfire393, kpaca, Cantripmancer
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v/la til Friday
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I'm thinking we let Cantrip post his thoughts and then no lynch. I'd like to analyze his flip and, if we were wrong and we're wrong again, that will put us in mylo tomorrow. If we were wrong but don't lynch, that would still give us a mislynch to play with after we know his flip for certain. I'd rather have that information available when we make the decision as Cantrip's alignment will influence my remaining reads (I'm thinking HP and Cantrip aren't scum together, for example).
If we're right, then we're in good shape anyway. Thoughts?
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Kind of. But he polled the masses, we got to see who weighed in, and I'm happy with the decision. With the modkill on SNL, we're behind a kill... so a misfire with a mislynch here would cost us a Day. Better to make the smart decision rather than not trying to waste koolkoal'a ability.
Are you going to want to lynch HP regardless of Cantrip's flip? If so, why? What do you see as the benefit of lynching here prior to knowing Cantrip's alignment? We aren't gaining an extra mislynch - really we're making one of our lynches with less information this way.
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Why the **** didn't we save KoolKoal's ability for lylo? Why am I only thinking of this now?
I think DC's right. No lynching gives us an extra day.
I guess there was no way to insure that he lived until that point though.
There are four possible outcomes for Hooker and Cantrip
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching wins us the game right now
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us ahead (4/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (4/2 - MyLo) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching puts us behind (4/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (5/1 - 2 mislynches) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us down to (3/2 - MyLo) as opposed to (4/2 - MyLo), but both are LyLo
Based on that, I think it is correct to lynch today. If Hooker is Scum, it puts us up a Mislynch. If hooker is town and cantrip is town, we're LyLo either way. We only lose out if Hooker is town and Cantrip is scum.
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Recalculating:
There are four possible outcomes for Hooker and Cantrip
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching wins us the game right now
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us ahead (5/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (5/2 - 1 mislynch) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching puts us even (5/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (6/1 - 2 mislynches) tomorrow
Hooker is Town and Cantrip is Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us down to (4/2 - MyLo) as opposed to (5/2 - 1 mislynch)
So yeah, that looks less good. If hooker is scum and cantrip is town, we're even on mislynches. If Hooker is town, we lose a mislynch.
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Unvote, Double Vote "No Lynch"
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Either way, we're all gonna burn
Whether we lynch today or tomorrow, we have the same number of total lynches available before game over (see my post above).
If we don't lynch today, we still "get" today's lynch, we just get to make it after seeing Cantrip's flip.
Also, functioning under the assumption that one of the 4 vanillas is really an unclaimed Doc, we have a 1/4 chance of outing them if we decide to lynch somebody, meaning they die for sure tonight (instead of, I assume, 33/50% chance of dying overnight with 1/2 scum remaining in the vanillas and them shooting one of the vanillas hoping to hit the doc). With the Doc alive and unclaimed, we can safely assume that Fulcrum will be able to act tonight, and then ideally again tomorrow if they Doc doesn't bite it, which can really improve our odds of finding the final scum(s).
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Wait. Fulcrum, why are you dodging my question while deflecting attention to Niv?
This kind of assumption only leads to Big Daddy-levels of WIFOM. We don't know:
- If scum have a roleblocker that could block and kill in the same Night if being the last scum standing
- If the remaining scum are indeed hiding in the VT pool
- If fulcrum is town (hint she's not)
- If we even have a doc
* If so, if it's a full doc and not an odd/even doc or Jailer or whatever
And that's a lot of ifs. I'd hit the breaks on modgaming until we have more tangible results, because as of now there are way too many variables to consider.
@Koolkoal: Why would you deny Cantrip his catch up? What if he's the doc? And even if he's scum, there was absolutely no reason to shoot him before he posted his thoughts as it could've helped us find the rest.
It is. Are you suggesting we still go for a Lynch? If so, who is your pick?
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1. kpaca's internet issues have not been resolved yet, and therefore I am going to replace his slot. I'll begin looking now. If no replacement is found at the beginning of Day 3, I will modkill the spot to begin the day.
2. I will be in Seattle from the 19th through the 23rd. Tanarin will be handling the game whilst I am gone. Please send all Night Actions to BOTH Tanarin and I for Night 2. Tanarin will also be handling the opening of Day 3, which mean flavour scene(s) will be delayed until I am back from Seattle.
3. Will update votecount in a few hours.
"That person looks suspect" you thought to yourself. "Well... let us see if I am right!"
"Hey you. Buy you a drink?"
The guest looked puzzled; they thought to themselves "who drinks at this hour?"
"Maybe some other time."
"I insist", said the other guest. "It's been a hell of a ride so far, and well, I hate to drink alone. Who can say no to a martini?"
"Well... if you insist."
As the barkeep delivered the martinis -- gin, of course; three olives, stirred, not shaken -- a loud crash could be heard outside the bar. As patrons gawked, you wasted no time in slipping a vial of poison into your guest's martini. You smiled as you raised a toast, knowing that, soon enough, you'd be proven right or wrong.
Cantripmancer has been poisoned.
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Llamarble was a town poisoner in one of the Cross-Towns. Idle Muse had a poisoning ability as scum in Futurama... not sure about any others.
@HP - respond to my #1031, please.
The thing I've been mulling over is why KoolKoal didn't shoot Yesterday, especially when he hinted at being a vig type role. Feels like he should have been more worried about dying after doing that. Also, why did he want to shoot today? Possibly something he lost in a lylo or mylo situation?
I wanted to try to influence where he shot, and I think Generic was a good one, but I don't trust it. Want Cantrip's thoughts, see the flip, and then try to figure out what's going on.
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My reads change at the drop of the hat p much.
Either way, we're all gonna burn
Recalculating:
There are five possible outcomes for Hooker, Kpaca, and Cantrip
Hooker is Town, Cantrip and Kpaca are scum - We win anyways
Hooker is Scum, one of Cantrip or Kpaca is scum and the other is town - Lynching wins us the game, no lynch puts us to (5/1 - 1 mislynch)
All three are town - Lynching puts us down to (3/2 LyLo) as opposed to (4/2 MyLo)
Hooker is Scum and Cantrip/kpaca are Town - Shooting + Lynching puts us ahead (4/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (4/2 - 1 LyLo) tomorrow
Hooker/kpaca are Town and Cantrip is Scum - Shooting + Lynching puts us behind (4/1 - 1 mislynch) as opposed to (5/1 - 1 mislynch) tomorrow
If we assume kpaca is getting modkilled, it does make sense to lynch today. We gain a mislynch or win the game if our lynchee is scum, and if they're town, we just go from MyLo to LyLo.
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You scum again this time?
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Skimmed the thread. Fulcrum and Wildfire stand out as town. Niv looks scummy. HP looks very scummy. Generic/Cantrip looks somewhat scummy. Slight town lean on DCIII. Both KK's are null.
I'm vanilla.
@Wildfire: no. Also, stop modgaming. This isn't a Basic.
vote HookerPunch
I'm just determining that there's really no point in lynching today, because we can lynch tomorrow and have the same number of lynches available to us, plus see Cantrip's flip from being poisoned, plus maybe see Fulcrum's overnight results.
I do agree with HP if we are lynching today though.
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...Are you even reading my posts?
I think that's foolhardy at best.
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