Hey guys. With the MM2 looming inevitably i wonder if its time to get rid of some cards. I know that the prices have been dropping for a while already but i am still pretty confident they havent reached the bottom yet. I would like to hear from you, what cards you consider to plummet the most and what cards are worth dumping now? As for me i am pretty sure that mythic staples should not be dropping much but rare staples which are supposed to be reprinted in rare slots should lose a lot. (noble hierarch, Wilt-leaf liege, Fulminator mage etc). Looking forward to read your view on the sittuation. Everyone, good profits
As soon as anything is announced in MM2015 at rare, sell it immediately, ideally within five minutes, to any idiot that will buy it.
If it's announced at mythic, consider how much this will increase supply, then decide.
And watch like a hawk for Modern relevant cards that do not get reprinted. If you had conclusive proof that Remand wasn't in the set from the number crunching, then you should buy Remands. Etc.
karn, bob, goyf, clique, iona, (and i assume batterskull) are all 15+ ticket mythics, and the other mythics are 5-10 tickets (which will probably drop down to 1-5 tickets)
MMA 1 was much more top heavy//unbalanced, since they had the 5 crappy kamigawa dragons at mythic.
Doesn't this mean that the mythics in MMA2 will drop heavily in price to meet a booster price equilibrium?
Right now I have my goyfs and cliques since I use them in legacy (i sold all my other modern cards though). I'm thinking goyf and clique will drop even more, so i should just sell out now and rebuy in a month and suck up not having any legacy decks. I kept these 2 cards since I didn't want to have zero legacy decks and I wasn't sure how much the price would drop. I would rather have fun playing than worry about an rebuy situation. But now with this new information it seems clear these mythics will drop enough so that it's worth my time to not have any legacy decks. Also I bought these cards when MMA1 came out, so I would still make a profit on them if I sold them now. Goyf was ~40 tickets the day on MMA drafts.
I sold most of top priced cards as well. Did it about 2 weeks ago so i managed to make a decent profit already. Though Goyfs, Cliques and Karns are still with me. I didnt sell Goyfs cuz i am greedy enough to worry about the price on that card in future, i didnt sell Clique since i am using them, and i failed to sell karns long time ago cuz i just forgot to do it =P. Not sure if its worth trying to sell them now - the price has already dropped significantly and i dont consider another 2-3 tix will make any difference. I would just prefer to have at least some staples to play any modern deck this month (oh no, TROOOOON, AGAIN??!!!). And i like old goyf and Vendilion arts better
I wouldn't sell goyfs if they dropped a couple tickets. Based on the mythics so far it seems like the price could drop 20 tix and clique can drop 10. Does that sound correct? Spellskite was also spoiled.
Doesn't the price of these cards have to drop a lot? Otherwise you could open packs and make money. The market will correct that. Maybe since I didn't do any math the contents of the packs are less than what it costs to buy a pack?
So M10 titans were in the time frame to be printed in MMA2. Could they be printed at rare? Or can they not print the cycle and print primetime in the mythic slot
This is probably the only product Primeval can be reprinted in any time soon; IIRC all the others save Frost have been reprinted somewhere already. Being in both M11 and M12 means there's about as many in circulation as there are of single-printing core set rares like Leyline of Sanctity.
I'm just not that certain that Primetime was deemed to *badly* need a reprint at the time this set was being planned. It didn't see much play until Amulet Bloom Combo started putting up results and that was probably after MM2 was being finalized. Were the card legal in Commander 12 months ago, I'd expect it to be in this set.
Any opinions on where goyf will bottom out and when? Looks like it's been bouncing around between mid 50s and low 60s, anyone expect it to even start to approach $50? Or is that wishful thinking?
So how long should we wait till prices go up again? The events should be running for about 2 more weeks and its not clear at which point the price fall gonna stop.
Looks like Goyf just recently fell to 51.99 at goatbots. The first modern masters bottomed out a week before it ended but I don't feel super comfortable making direct comparisons, plus Goyf only saw itself rise from the moment the set was released the first time around.
The real question is, is it worth waiting for the absolute bottom at the risk of missing out on reasonable prices. I honestly have no idea how much further prices can/will drop and am inclined to grab what I need soon.
I'm watching prices like a hawk now, waiting for the moment to buy what I want.
I'm looking for a period of 3-6 hours where the big bots are continually out of stock or close to it as the indication that I've missed the very bottom but it's time to get in now.
If I haven't pulled the trigger by next Sunday, I will do so then.
I bought all the cards I needed. I was unable to go in between the bot buy/sell prices by trading with humans, (for the cards worth under 16 tickets) which is a shame . It just shows the sad state of trading on mtgo, that it's much easier to trade with bots than it is with humans. I won't be able to trade much during the week due to work. So saving a few tix here or there just isn't worth it when it can hours to get the "deal."
I bought all the cards I needed. I was unable to go in between the bot buy/sell prices by trading with humans, (for the cards worth under 16 tickets) which is a shame . It just shows the sad state of trading on mtgo, that it's much easier to trade with bots than it is with humans. I won't be able to trade much during the week due to work. So saving a few tix here or there just isn't worth it when it can hours to get the "deal."
If it is now or next weekend I agree with your decision.
Worst case, it backfires and cards fall a bit more - maybe you pay 8.25 for Spellskites and next weekend you could have got them for 7.0. That's not a terrible result.
On the flip side, your Skites might be 11.25 next weekend and never drop back.
That said I'm holding off on Mox Opal, Karn and Bitterblossom specifically (and Hurkyl's Recall but this effect has played out already there). They were low demand, very low supply cards prior to MM2; now the demand probably remains low but supply shot up meteorically. I feel the present prices are driven more by price memory than a supply/demand balance.
Edit: So true on trading being utterly bot dominated.
I also increased the amount of non budget modern decks I own by 10x this weekend. So I get to play with decks instead of waiting another week to potentially save some tix.
I think bitterblossom is close to unplayable in modern. I don't know why you'd want to buy that card, unless you like it as a long term spec. I think there are a lot of other long terms specs you could buy, and those could be cards that are actually useful in modern.
The thing about hurkyl's recall is that it's pretty bad in modern, I think U tron and fish play it since affinity is a bad match up for them. But those decks really need to play 4 copies to make the affinity match up good. And it's not worth playing 4 copies in modern. It's also not popular in vintage anymore. Hurkly's is mostly used in combo decks, which are non existent on mtgo (outside of belcher). You're right it's worth 2 tix because of price memory, the card shouldn't be in demand, and should be worth under a ticket.
The other annoying thing about mtgo being bot dominated is that you can't block the bots with terrible buy/sell prices. When combing through the classifieds to see if i could get hierarch for under 9 tix, I had to read/skim 100 lines of gibberish to find the 1-2 humans buying/selling hierarch, and it was mostly humans wanting to buy hierarch at a low price. I want to block those people too.
I bought everything I wanted (which was essentially everything save Tron pieces) after my post yesterday. Looks like there was a spike amongst the rares (Fulminator to 10?) which is interesting.
I think the thing that annoys me most of all when it comes to trading on mtgo are the bots who put "human" in their classifieds. To me, those are the low of the low..absolute scum.
this feels like VMA all over again where the prices went up after a week of release and then they drop when they add more events since people are upset
Friends and I bought Goyfs at 51-53 release day. Don't think its going any lower then that. Rest I debating if I should just pick it up now so I can make Twin and practice for Charlotte wait for this weekend to save a few.
Mhh... I planned on buying in about the same time as MMA1, but it seems I was already a bit late on quite a few rares. Then again most are slowly creeping down a bit again, so maybe this weekend will still be a good time to buy in. As long as prices won't go up by more than 10% I'm not going to be angry at myself for waiting a bit longer, so I think waiting for saturday/sunday might be a good time.
I haven't been playing a lot, though that's mostly because I sold a ton of my modern cards (around 1.3k tickets) and don't have many decks ready atm anyway.
Also glad I didn't sell my Goyfs back then, because at the time I sold most my stuff they hovered around 55ish (buy) so I didn't lose out there
I got most of what I wanted. Missed a couple things because none of the discount chains had stock (foil fulminator mage, foil hurkyl's recall, foil bitterblossom, foil leyline) but I'll get those this weekend. This time, I'm not waiting until Sunday evening US time. It will be Sunday AM.
There is a Modern/Standard split SCG event (with Top 8 being Modern) this weekend and multiple Grand Prix's coming up for Modern - I would buy Sunday morning.
The new MMA2 pack prize payouts could increase the supply, however...
Why should MM2 cards drop? With the mm1 release back to 2013 we saw price spike after drafts came to the end. Not sure why anything different should happen this time.
I think there is a huge bubble, especially for non MMA2 cards. I think there will be a price drop after the modern festival events.
I think the play demand for Liliana and the other really high price non-MM2 cards is fairly real, though there will be a typical seasonal decrease when the Modern festival is over.
In other words, I don't think it's a bubble (like the old IPA bubble) but it is a period of slightly above long term average demand.
Longer term though, I think there'll be a Modern Masters product every year from now and I don't see single cards getting as high as Goyf and Liliana have historically reached in future.
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If it's announced at mythic, consider how much this will increase supply, then decide.
And watch like a hawk for Modern relevant cards that do not get reprinted. If you had conclusive proof that Remand wasn't in the set from the number crunching, then you should buy Remands. Etc.
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/spoilers/147-modern-masters-2015-edition
karn, bob, goyf, clique, iona, (and i assume batterskull) are all 15+ ticket mythics, and the other mythics are 5-10 tickets (which will probably drop down to 1-5 tickets)
MMA 1 was much more top heavy//unbalanced, since they had the 5 crappy kamigawa dragons at mythic.
Doesn't this mean that the mythics in MMA2 will drop heavily in price to meet a booster price equilibrium?
Right now I have my goyfs and cliques since I use them in legacy (i sold all my other modern cards though). I'm thinking goyf and clique will drop even more, so i should just sell out now and rebuy in a month and suck up not having any legacy decks. I kept these 2 cards since I didn't want to have zero legacy decks and I wasn't sure how much the price would drop. I would rather have fun playing than worry about an rebuy situation. But now with this new information it seems clear these mythics will drop enough so that it's worth my time to not have any legacy decks. Also I bought these cards when MMA1 came out, so I would still make a profit on them if I sold them now. Goyf was ~40 tickets the day on MMA drafts.
Doesn't the price of these cards have to drop a lot? Otherwise you could open packs and make money. The market will correct that. Maybe since I didn't do any math the contents of the packs are less than what it costs to buy a pack?
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Magic 2012/Primeval Titan#online
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Magic 2011/Primeval Titan#online
I'm just not that certain that Primetime was deemed to *badly* need a reprint at the time this set was being planned. It didn't see much play until Amulet Bloom Combo started putting up results and that was probably after MM2 was being finalized. Were the card legal in Commander 12 months ago, I'd expect it to be in this set.
http://www.starcitygames.com/article/30765_Modern-Masters-2015-Preview-Card-Primeval-Titan.html
Similar expensive cards in the past mostly went up after release (goyf in MMA1, wasteland in TPR)
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Modern Masters/Tarmogoyf#online
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Tempest Remastered/Wasteland#online
The real question is, is it worth waiting for the absolute bottom at the risk of missing out on reasonable prices. I honestly have no idea how much further prices can/will drop and am inclined to grab what I need soon.
I'm looking for a period of 3-6 hours where the big bots are continually out of stock or close to it as the indication that I've missed the very bottom but it's time to get in now.
If I haven't pulled the trigger by next Sunday, I will do so then.
If it is now or next weekend I agree with your decision.
Worst case, it backfires and cards fall a bit more - maybe you pay 8.25 for Spellskites and next weekend you could have got them for 7.0. That's not a terrible result.
On the flip side, your Skites might be 11.25 next weekend and never drop back.
That said I'm holding off on Mox Opal, Karn and Bitterblossom specifically (and Hurkyl's Recall but this effect has played out already there). They were low demand, very low supply cards prior to MM2; now the demand probably remains low but supply shot up meteorically. I feel the present prices are driven more by price memory than a supply/demand balance.
Edit: So true on trading being utterly bot dominated.
I think bitterblossom is close to unplayable in modern. I don't know why you'd want to buy that card, unless you like it as a long term spec. I think there are a lot of other long terms specs you could buy, and those could be cards that are actually useful in modern.
The thing about hurkyl's recall is that it's pretty bad in modern, I think U tron and fish play it since affinity is a bad match up for them. But those decks really need to play 4 copies to make the affinity match up good. And it's not worth playing 4 copies in modern. It's also not popular in vintage anymore. Hurkly's is mostly used in combo decks, which are non existent on mtgo (outside of belcher). You're right it's worth 2 tix because of price memory, the card shouldn't be in demand, and should be worth under a ticket.
The other annoying thing about mtgo being bot dominated is that you can't block the bots with terrible buy/sell prices. When combing through the classifieds to see if i could get hierarch for under 9 tix, I had to read/skim 100 lines of gibberish to find the 1-2 humans buying/selling hierarch, and it was mostly humans wanting to buy hierarch at a low price. I want to block those people too.
I think the thing that annoys me most of all when it comes to trading on mtgo are the bots who put "human" in their classifieds. To me, those are the low of the low..absolute scum.
https://twitter.com/brettwjayne/status/605795657450811394
this feels like VMA all over again where the prices went up after a week of release and then they drop when they add more events since people are upset
I got most of what I wanted. Missed a couple things because none of the discount chains had stock (foil fulminator mage, foil hurkyl's recall, foil bitterblossom, foil leyline) but I'll get those this weekend. This time, I'm not waiting until Sunday evening US time. It will be Sunday AM.
The new MMA2 pack prize payouts could increase the supply, however...
I think the play demand for Liliana and the other really high price non-MM2 cards is fairly real, though there will be a typical seasonal decrease when the Modern festival is over.
In other words, I don't think it's a bubble (like the old IPA bubble) but it is a period of slightly above long term average demand.
Longer term though, I think there'll be a Modern Masters product every year from now and I don't see single cards getting as high as Goyf and Liliana have historically reached in future.