teferis went from 1 tix to 1.66 immediately and then increased slowly... could have gotten 7 but only got 3
for the life of me, i don't understand how you have the patience to buy more than 10 or 20 of anything
Guessing he bought them during the flashback draft. I only picked up one extra playset :(.
teferis went from 1 tix to 1.66 immediately and then increased slowly... could have gotten 7 but only got 3
for the life of me, i don't understand how you have the patience to buy more than 10 or 20 of anything
buying multiples is no different than buying one really expensive card if done right. i just looked at the previous trends on visions and felt blue would be better with shaman leaving. there was a little luck in twin doing well but i figure some blue deck would use serum.
i bought 2 liliana of the veil too, sadly i got stuck with one and the other i was luckily able to ditch a few weeks ago after it went back up. i need to ditch the rest of my griselbrands and show and tells. i figure show and tell would have started going back up but it hasnt, and without any reanimator decks doing well at the pt i dont see griselbrand going anywhere.
serum is an easy spec, it was down to 1 tix from the flashback drafts, only thing is it went back up pretty early. not arid mesa early, but before the end of the drafts
I've been trying to figure why these have been ramping back up so quickly, and I think it's a response to the spec's by major chains. Before you might have had a few people buying an extra playset or two over time, but now you've got 1-2 guys buying 60 copies from all their favorite bots. We know the big bots raid smaller bots who have cards cheep when their supplies are low so they see the across the board supply drying up and rocket the price back to "normal".
In theory if you bought slower you could get more cheaper, but then you risk not "getting yours". What's happening is that people going deep on a card are trying to time the bottom and are thus creating an artificial bottom earlier than it has historically happened. With fetches there were so many people wanting in that saw a sale and went for it. Mesa's lost nearly 40% of value (on sale for 40% since we knew it was going back up) and people jumped on it.
Rapid price increases after a crash are pretty normal when the perceived value is a lot higher than the current value.
Don't be surprised if we see people developing automatic spec bots that trade on algorithms soon.
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I do feel like a complete moron now for selling Past in flames for 9.5 a while ago.
Holy crap. Forgot that was mythic. It was a perfect target with DRS gone and storm doing so well at the PT. (Storm being one of the least expensive MTGO decks as well).
Edit: That card had a very weird cycle. It lowed around the time of GTC when it was still in standard (DRS being a big factor I guess) and then started to ramp UP until it rotated with the near term target almost spot on (10/22 6.5) I could see why someone would have sold when it ramped back to 9 at the commander release.
Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
No. It will be drafted. I'd expect it to be higher than the Theros ones, maybe 2 tix.
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Typically the near bottom is right before redemption begins. I expect like most spec things on MTGO lately it will fall less and start to rise earlier.
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Typically the near bottom is right before redemption begins. I expect like most spec things on MTGO lately it will fall less and start to rise earlier.
thats what i figured since i think its weird how an uncommon is still worth more than a ticket and i remember with theros both dissolve and fanatic went down over time.
its surprising that temple of enlightment is worth more than xenagos god and brimaz is now below 20. is this brimaz's low point or could he fall harder?
Typically the near bottom is right before redemption begins. I expect like most spec things on MTGO lately it will fall less and start to rise earlier.
thats what i figured since i think its weird how an uncommon is still worth more than a ticket and i remember with theros both dissolve and fanatic went down over time.
its surprising that temple of enlightment is worth more than xenagos god and brimaz is now below 20. is this brimaz's low point or could he fall harder?
Bile Blight is a key uncommon in a deck that is both cheap and legitimately competitive. That's why demand for it is so high. It will of course fall but that could still take a couple weeks.
Brimaz won't get much lower, but will drop slightly I expect. I concur that after Mutavault, Boros Reckoner and Loxodon Smiter go away, Brimaz will be up up up up up in price and could be 35 tix in nine months time.
Modern PTQ Season June 7-Aug 24. Not sure when the best time to sell is, but I am keeping all my Modern specs until a lot closer to PTQ season. Right now has to be a lot to early for most cards. Splinter Twin and PIF sure are tempting to sell now though.
Splinter twin is a big sell right now, I would argue Karn is a pretty big buy. The deck is pretty down and hes still 30 tix since hes a 3rd set mythic, plus hes a 4 of in tron decks. Its a card that at SOME point will hit 40+ tix again, probably come PTQ season especially if the meta shifts back towards jund a bit.
I also think that liliana is a good spec since Waste not should help 8rack move up some more probably.
You do some real yeomen's work following all those TWoo decks, rickster. I know it's where the fast-turn-around speculations are, but I just can't stay on top of it as fast as the market changes.
Most relevant is probably Lorwyn block and Shadowmoor block; something like Fulminator Mage may come down a bit since there's two packs of Shadowmoor opened in those drafts. Those two blocks are pretty decent with rare values, in general (especially Shadowmoor with the filer lands in Eventide). Time Spiral block may or may not temporarily dip Tarmogoyf's price (I am betting on "not").
You do some real yeomen's work following all those TWoo decks, rickster. I know it's where the fast-turn-around speculations are, but I just can't stay on top of it as fast as the market changes.
Most relevant is probably Lorwyn block and Shadowmoor block; something like Fulminator Mage may come down a bit since there's two packs of Shadowmoor opened in those drafts. Those two blocks are pretty decent with rare values, in general (especially Shadowmoor with the filer lands in Eventide). Time Spiral block may or may not temporarily dip Tarmogoyf's price (I am betting on "not").
It'll probably dip some, but a buck off a hundred won't feel like much. As far as speccing goes, the flaskback drafts will likely drop mindcensor a fair bit. A lot of people will draft TPF for the environment plus the goyf lottery.
You do some real yeomen's work following all those TWoo decks, rickster. I know it's where the fast-turn-around speculations are, but I just can't stay on top of it as fast as the market changes.
Most relevant is probably Lorwyn block and Shadowmoor block; something like Fulminator Mage may come down a bit since there's two packs of Shadowmoor opened in those drafts. Those two blocks are pretty decent with rare values, in general (especially Shadowmoor with the filer lands in Eventide). Time Spiral block may or may not temporarily dip Tarmogoyf's price (I am betting on "not").
It'll probably dip some, but a buck off a hundred won't feel like much. As far as speccing goes, the flaskback drafts will likely drop mindcensor a fair bit. A lot of people will draft TPF for the environment plus the goyf lottery.
That would be good. I only have 2. What are some other hot modern commons from tsp?
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I forgot about how how much value was in Future Sight besides Tarmogoyf and Burn of the Grovewillows: Daybreak Coronet and Horizon Canopy are also 20 tickets, plus Magus of the Moon, Venser, Pact of Negation, Slaughter Pact, Coalition Relic, Aven Mindcensor, and River of Tears being worth more than the pack itself. Especially funny in comparison to Time Spiral (which has nothing) and Planar Chaos (which just has Damnation and Urborg).
Don't forget Timeshifted cards: Lord of Atlantis, The rack and serrated arrows cards are worth a decent amount.
Those have indeed gone up since I last looked.
But yeah FUT is where all the money is. If you drafted when TSP was out, you'd have done TTT drafts 1/3rd of the time, TTP 1/3rd and TPF 1/3rd. That means you'd have 'opened' 2 PLC and 6 TSP boosters for each FUT booster 'opened'. Add in the fact that FUT had more rares than most small sets and you get the following:
Rarity Average # opened over one of each draft
TSP rare 6/80, 0.075
TSP special 6/121, 0.05
PLC rare 2/40, 0.05
FUT rare 1/60, 0.0167
So for every 4 Horizon Canopies ever added into the system, there's about 12 Damnations and Squires, and about 18 Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir.
Redemption did affect this and somewhat even it up (FUT was never worth bulk redeeming except in foil, while TSP, TSB and PLC all were worth redeeming at least at times) but as much as redemption's effects are understated by many players, there's no way that 75% of TSP rares were redeemed.
I would not be surprised if there are more of any given TSP rare online than there are of any given FUT uncommon.
Assuming there's no announcement for fetches in the fall block. I think tarn will hit 50+ tix this summer for the ptq season (assuming they have mtgo ptqs).
Guessing he bought them during the flashback draft. I only picked up one extra playset :(.
buying multiples is no different than buying one really expensive card if done right. i just looked at the previous trends on visions and felt blue would be better with shaman leaving. there was a little luck in twin doing well but i figure some blue deck would use serum.
i bought 2 liliana of the veil too, sadly i got stuck with one and the other i was luckily able to ditch a few weeks ago after it went back up. i need to ditch the rest of my griselbrands and show and tells. i figure show and tell would have started going back up but it hasnt, and without any reanimator decks doing well at the pt i dont see griselbrand going anywhere.
I've been trying to figure why these have been ramping back up so quickly, and I think it's a response to the spec's by major chains. Before you might have had a few people buying an extra playset or two over time, but now you've got 1-2 guys buying 60 copies from all their favorite bots. We know the big bots raid smaller bots who have cards cheep when their supplies are low so they see the across the board supply drying up and rocket the price back to "normal".
In theory if you bought slower you could get more cheaper, but then you risk not "getting yours". What's happening is that people going deep on a card are trying to time the bottom and are thus creating an artificial bottom earlier than it has historically happened. With fetches there were so many people wanting in that saw a sale and went for it. Mesa's lost nearly 40% of value (on sale for 40% since we knew it was going back up) and people jumped on it.
Rapid price increases after a crash are pretty normal when the perceived value is a lot higher than the current value.
Don't be surprised if we see people developing automatic spec bots that trade on algorithms soon.
Holy crap. Forgot that was mythic. It was a perfect target with DRS gone and storm doing so well at the PT. (Storm being one of the least expensive MTGO decks as well).
Edit: That card had a very weird cycle. It lowed around the time of GTC when it was still in standard (DRS being a big factor I guess) and then started to ramp UP until it rotated with the near term target almost spot on (10/22 6.5) I could see why someone would have sold when it ramped back to 9 at the commander release.
I saw them spike at 36 then fall back to 33. I am keeping my play sets until June. Waiting for Modern PTQ season to sell.
thats what i figured since i think its weird how an uncommon is still worth more than a ticket and i remember with theros both dissolve and fanatic went down over time.
its surprising that temple of enlightment is worth more than xenagos god and brimaz is now below 20. is this brimaz's low point or could he fall harder?
when would be a good time to do so? when does modern season for mtgo start?
Bile Blight is a key uncommon in a deck that is both cheap and legitimately competitive. That's why demand for it is so high. It will of course fall but that could still take a couple weeks.
Brimaz won't get much lower, but will drop slightly I expect. I concur that after Mutavault, Boros Reckoner and Loxodon Smiter go away, Brimaz will be up up up up up in price and could be 35 tix in nine months time.
I also think that liliana is a good spec since Waste not should help 8rack move up some more probably.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Darksteel/Mycosynth Lattice
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-modern-march-madness/
it took me 12 or 16 cards to cause the price to jump up on cardbot 3.15 to 3.41
Flashback drafts announced for April:
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/other/03242014/aprilfbd
Most relevant is probably Lorwyn block and Shadowmoor block; something like Fulminator Mage may come down a bit since there's two packs of Shadowmoor opened in those drafts. Those two blocks are pretty decent with rare values, in general (especially Shadowmoor with the filer lands in Eventide). Time Spiral block may or may not temporarily dip Tarmogoyf's price (I am betting on "not").
It'll probably dip some, but a buck off a hundred won't feel like much. As far as speccing goes, the flaskback drafts will likely drop mindcensor a fair bit. A lot of people will draft TPF for the environment plus the goyf lottery.
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That would be good. I only have 2. What are some other hot modern commons from tsp?
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/prices/online/modern_one
tolaria west
dryad arbor
harmonize
sadly not as expensive as mindcensor
Those have indeed gone up since I last looked.
But yeah FUT is where all the money is. If you drafted when TSP was out, you'd have done TTT drafts 1/3rd of the time, TTP 1/3rd and TPF 1/3rd. That means you'd have 'opened' 2 PLC and 6 TSP boosters for each FUT booster 'opened'. Add in the fact that FUT had more rares than most small sets and you get the following:
Rarity Average # opened over one of each draft
TSP rare 6/80, 0.075
TSP special 6/121, 0.05
PLC rare 2/40, 0.05
FUT rare 1/60, 0.0167
So for every 4 Horizon Canopies ever added into the system, there's about 12 Damnations and Squires, and about 18 Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir.
Redemption did affect this and somewhat even it up (FUT was never worth bulk redeeming except in foil, while TSP, TSB and PLC all were worth redeeming at least at times) but as much as redemption's effects are understated by many players, there's no way that 75% of TSP rares were redeemed.
I would not be surprised if there are more of any given TSP rare online than there are of any given FUT uncommon.
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/554589-aaron-forsythe-no-fetchlands-anytime-soon
When that was "announced" prices were trending downward, so I decided to not bother. Well that was wrong.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Zendikar/Scalding Tarn
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Zendikar/Misty Rainforest
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/index/ZEN_L
Assuming there's no announcement for fetches in the fall block. I think tarn will hit 50+ tix this summer for the ptq season (assuming they have mtgo ptqs).