The modern banlist doesn't take affect until the 12th on mtgo, so people can't play faeries/zoo in dailies. I expect the prices to go up more when that happens.
I'm not so sure if that's true for Bitterblossom, but i think you are right for the other faeris cards (scions, glens, etc.)
I think most people that want Blossoms have them already so they won't go above 40 because there is a lot of doubt about how good Faeris actually will be.
What could happen of course is that other decks that want to play Blossom (WB tokens, 8rack, maybe others) do well.
That makes sense, after I played with the archetype a tiny bit and watched people stream it. I think faeries is really hard to play well. So people will most likely be turned off by it after they get rolled by the budget zoo decks over and over. Then if it does well at the PT, then I could easily see it hit 40.
I realize this is off-topic, but isn't Evangel of Heliod strictly better in the context of Purphoros/tokenshock deck?
Scion would be a great card and not 0,05 tix if GW would not be an unplayable deck thanks to Sin Collector, Thoughtseize and Lifebane Zombie.
Evangel of Heliod costs one more and has a much smaller body.
At worst you're paying 6 mana for a 1/3 and two 1/1 Soldiers with Evangel.
At worst you're paying 5 mana for a 4/4 and two 1/1 flyers with Scion.
In the context of the deck Evangel may have more upside but Scion is on average is going to give you a much better return on your mana investment.
Agreed on all points.
GW is gaining a bit of steam on MTGO. Lifebane Zombie, yeah that sucks, but Sin Collector? Go ahead. And the thoughtseize argument applies to all deck. People have been harping on the "GW is horrible because of Lifebane Zombie" thing since pre-Theros and its just not the case. A GW deck can outrace Mono-B the vast majority of the time, as long as its non-creature answers don't get seized out, but thats usually the case in any decks' Mono B matchup really. Its problems with R/W devotion/control/Mono U are generally worse than with B.
A G/W isn't going to be top tier, but any W-based deck using Brimaz or devotion might look into Scion as a 5 drop, and any G/W deck using Brimaz and VoR should definitely look into Scion,so even if the card bumps up to .3 or .4 tix, you could make some tickets off it.
I'm not so sure if that's true for Bitterblossom, but i think you are right for the other faeris cards (scions, glens, etc.)
I think most people that want Blossoms have them already so they won't go above 40 because there is a lot of doubt about how good Faeris actually will be.
What could happen of course is that other decks that want to play Blossom (WB tokens, 8rack, maybe others) do well.
That makes sense, after I played with the archetype a tiny bit and watched people stream it. I think faeries is really hard to play well. So people will most likely be turned off by it after they get rolled by the budget zoo decks over and over. Then if it does well at the PT, then I could easily see it hit 40.
So if you're buying specs now, you're hoping 1) they go up because of the PT 2) you're holding them till PTQ season
Someone mentioned Great Sable Stag on reddit very shortly after the B&R announcement. It was still .05 at the time and I went around looking for a bot who was selling them in bulk but had no such luck. I wasn't about to toss tickets around when all I could find was four of them at a time. Oh well.
I think most of the good speculating occurred right after the announcement; now what many are doing is trying to figure out whether or not they're being a greater fool by investing in "x". For anyone who's interested, this is what I bought..
30 Scion of Oona (6 LRW) @ .35 each
9 Kitchen Fink @ .85
6 Knight of the Reliquary @ 1.93
6 Snapcaster Mage @ 6
6 Firespout @ .35
5 Kird Ape @ .25
4 Bloodghast @ 2.75 each
2 Vengevine @ 10 each
It was madness. I missed out on a ton of other specs because there just wasn't much time.
I like KOTR will be a big bump at the PT. Kibler will be playing it loud and proud, and going big in the Zoo mirror will be key. I bought 12 at 2 tix and i expect it to hit 8-10 come PT time.
How do you guys feel about Rest in Peace? RTR was heavily opened but as we've seen with online SB cards like Torpor Orb, Damping Matrix, Stony Silence and etc., they usually command a premium versus their paper equivalents.
Also, is mosouba not working for anyone else? I haven't been able to see the "now pricing" for a couple days.
How do you guys feel about Rest in Peace? RTR was heavily opened but as we've seen with online SB cards like Torpor Orb, Damping Matrix, Stony Silence and etc., they usually command a premium versus their paper equivalents.
Also, is mosouba not working for anyone else? I haven't been able to see the "now pricing" for a couple days.
Seems to be working for me. Seeing pricing update as of 2/6 23:00.
Checking out MTGGOLDFISH, I don`t see many decks currently running it, but without DRS I guess Living End will become a lot more popular. At 0.44 or whatever it's probably pretty safe.
I just bought a few playsets Life from the Loam, around when Rick posted after MJ commented he thinks a deck with it will probably be good. I think right now it`s pretty safe to buy anything that hasn`t really spiked yet for Modern. The problem is figuring out what will give you the best return while being easy, as in not to time consuming, to move. This is what I worry about with RIP. I am just diversifying a bit now before we start seeing daily lists with the bannings/unbannings in effect and think there are better targets, though RIP might have a chance at a higher % return.
How do you guys feel about Rest in Peace? RTR was heavily opened but as we've seen with online SB cards like Torpor Orb, Damping Matrix, Stony Silence and etc., they usually command a premium versus their paper equivalents.
Also, is mosouba not working for anyone else? I haven't been able to see the "now pricing" for a couple days.
I feel like comparing a white card to a bunch of under opened colorless cards is not a good analysis.
You listed stony silence which is a fair comparison
How do you guys feel about Rest in Peace? RTR was heavily opened but as we've seen with online SB cards like Torpor Orb, Damping Matrix, Stony Silence and etc., they usually command a premium versus their paper equivalents.
Also, is mosouba not working for anyone else? I haven't been able to see the "now pricing" for a couple days.
I feel like comparing a white card to a bunch of under opened colorless cards is not a good analysis.
You listed stony silence which is a fair comparison
Remember that guy who bought 200 or so on a youtube video. He got them at 5 cents though, and not .44.
I think the better spec is to buy RiP at rotation when it's undervalued, and sell it during the next mtgo ptq season.
The real question is, why are Torpor Orb and Damping Matrix worth so much more than their paper equivalents? I can't come up with a good explanation other than it having something to do with the online meta. Also, is it possible that Rest in Peace doesn't dip as we approach rotation? It sees exactly zero competitive play in standard with its price being solely dictated by non-standard play. If it becomes a bit more popular with DRS gone it's feasible that it follows the same trajectory as Stony Silence. Unless the mere prospect of standard play is contributing to its current price, I think former scenario is actually very possible.
The real question is, why are Torpor Orb and Damping Matrix worth so much more than their paper equivalents? I can't come up with a good explanation other than it having something to do with the online meta. Also, is it possible that Rest in Peace doesn't dip as we approach rotation? It sees exactly zero competitive play in standard with its price being solely dictated by non-standard play. If it becomes a bit more popular with DRS gone it's feasible that it follows the same trajectory as Stony Silence. Unless the mere prospect of standard play is contributing to its current price, I think former scenario is actually very possible.
I've read some tweets on twitter about how torpor orb is underpriced in paper, and there should be a market correction for it anytime now.
My guess as to why they're so cheap in paper is that people don't want to speculate on sideboard cards. And modern is played every day on mtgo, so you need these sideboard cards to compete.
Torpor orb's price on mtgo is easily justifiable due to all the decks that have it in their sideboard. Damping matrix is a head scratcher. I guess damping matrix is in much shorter supply and lots of people specc'd on it, but who the hell specs on this rarely played sideboard card?
As for RiP, i'm fine with missing out on it if it doesn't drop during rotation. I'm not interested in buying a .50 sideboard card and holding it for 4 months.
That article says basically what I've been trying to say. That prices DO move on players buying cards not on shadowy figures manipulating the market. 40? Craziness. Gratz to those who bought them.
Does the JSS this weekend have any potential to move anything?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
How do you guys feel about Rest in Peace? RTR was heavily opened but as we've seen with online SB cards like Torpor Orb, Damping Matrix, Stony Silence and etc., they usually command a premium versus their paper equivalents.
Also, is mosouba not working for anyone else? I haven't been able to see the "now pricing" for a couple days.
I feel like comparing a white card to a bunch of under opened colorless cards is not a good analysis.
You listed stony silence which is a fair comparison
Remember that guy who bought 200 or so on a youtube video. He got them at 5 cents though, and not .44.
I think the better spec is to buy RiP at rotation when it's undervalued, and sell it during the next mtgo ptq season.
The real question is, why are Torpor Orb and Damping Matrix worth so much more than their paper equivalents? I can't come up with a good explanation other than it having something to do with the online meta. Also, is it possible that Rest in Peace doesn't dip as we approach rotation? It sees exactly zero competitive play in standard with its price being solely dictated by non-standard play. If it becomes a bit more popular with DRS gone it's feasible that it follows the same trajectory as Stony Silence. Unless the mere prospect of standard play is contributing to its current price, I think former scenario is actually very possible.
Any card in standard on MTGO is needed for redemption with other standard legal cards that will rotate. That inflates the price a smudge.
Of course we are in a strange world where there are apparently enough people playing Modern to keep prices high on the remaining copies of a lot of cards. I think only Mythics have the ability to survive a rotation and even then only special ones like Lilly.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
is there anything exciting worth picking up in this weeks flashbacks? i see vindicate and pernicious deeds but neither of those seem like snap buys. is there any commons/uncommons that im not seeing?
I was lucky enough to catch this article literally minutes after it was released but unlucky to be tight on funds. I ended grabbing a bunch of Porphry Node for .4 a set because it was the cheapest of the bunch. It's honestly mind boggling how his streams trigger spikes like this.
EDIT: Leyline and Halo are actually played in legitimately competitive decks, however.
It's still 47/48 tix on cardbot. So not sure about the call. But I think faeries won't be that good of an archetype at the PT.
I sold my playset of blossoms pretty fast to humans (because I needed the tickets). But the other cards I bought I'm having a hard time peddling to humans. I might have to sell to bots. Selling cards between the bot margins is really tedious. I've been trying to get rid of these cards for the past week. Maybe standard cards are a bit easier to sell to humans (i haven't done that in a year).
I guess the bots are just so convenient that people will pay whatever prices just to have the cards right away. It's also funny that the classifieds are so convoluted that if I wanted to find a human selling a deathrite shaman, i'd have to spend 2+ minutes seeing if there was a human selling than less than what the bots were selling for. If you have a bot chain you like using you can just buy straight from them instead of spending time trying to save 5%. So I can see why it is hard to sell certain cards to humans.
It's unfortunate the trading function of mtgo won't get much better when they force the beta upon us. There needs to be a better way to filter through the classifieds, like a way to block bot chains/people with horrific pricing. And a way to tell if the person with the advertisement is away from his computer, or in a game, or whatever. It's not like i'm asking for an auction house system, which may or may not be good for the economy.
It's still 47/48 tix on cardbot. So not sure about the call. But I think faeries won't be that good of an archetype at the PT.
I sold my playset of blossoms pretty fast to humans (because I needed the tickets). But the other cards I bought I'm having a hard time peddling to humans. I might have to sell to bots. Selling cards between the bot margins is really tedious. I've been trying to get rid of these cards for the past week. Maybe standard cards are a bit easier to sell to humans (i haven't done that in a year).
I guess the bots are just so convenient that people will pay whatever prices just to have the cards right away. It's also funny that the classifieds are so convoluted that if I wanted to find a human selling a deathrite shaman, i'd have to spend 2+ minutes seeing if there was a human selling than less than what the bots were selling for. If you have a bot chain you like using you can just buy straight from them instead of spending time trying to save 5%. So I can see why it is hard to sell certain cards to humans.
It's unfortunate the trading function of mtgo won't get much better when they force the beta upon us. There needs to be a better way to filter through the classifieds, like a way to block bot chains/people with horrific pricing. And a way to tell if the person with the advertisement is away from his computer, or in a game, or whatever. It's not like i'm asking for an auction house system, which may or may not be good for the economy.
I think another important point about dealing with human traders is most of them are buying lower than bot prices and selling higher than bot prices. Not sure if this is accurate, but I would swear over 50% of the real human ads have worse pricing than bots.
So you guys are trying to ditch all of your post B&R hype picks? Is there any harm in at least waiting for the actual B&R announcement to take effect tomorrow or do you believe those cards have essentially reached their ceilings? I assumed more growth was possible if/wehn Fae/Zoo/GY shenanigans became a legitimate part of the metagame.
i dont see how deathrite leaving really makes reanimator THAT much better but i guess there is alot of hype atm
That makes sense, after I played with the archetype a tiny bit and watched people stream it. I think faeries is really hard to play well. So people will most likely be turned off by it after they get rolled by the budget zoo decks over and over. Then if it does well at the PT, then I could easily see it hit 40.
I don't know if there are any easy specs. Arid mesa is up 2 tix. I was going to say great sable stag, but that already shot up. http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Magic 2010/Great Sable Stag
So if you're buying specs now, you're hoping 1) they go up because of the PT 2) you're holding them till PTQ season
Agreed on all points.
GW is gaining a bit of steam on MTGO. Lifebane Zombie, yeah that sucks, but Sin Collector? Go ahead. And the thoughtseize argument applies to all deck. People have been harping on the "GW is horrible because of Lifebane Zombie" thing since pre-Theros and its just not the case. A GW deck can outrace Mono-B the vast majority of the time, as long as its non-creature answers don't get seized out, but thats usually the case in any decks' Mono B matchup really. Its problems with R/W devotion/control/Mono U are generally worse than with B.
A G/W isn't going to be top tier, but any W-based deck using Brimaz or devotion might look into Scion as a 5 drop, and any G/W deck using Brimaz and VoR should definitely look into Scion,so even if the card bumps up to .3 or .4 tix, you could make some tickets off it.
Standard:
RW Boros devotion/Purphoros combo
RGB Jund Midrange
Modern:
WB Martyr.proc
Does anyone think the GW god is playable? As someone who loves fetching land more than most, even I think its just not happening.
Standard:
RW Boros devotion/Purphoros combo
RGB Jund Midrange
Modern:
WB Martyr.proc
Someone mentioned Great Sable Stag on reddit very shortly after the B&R announcement. It was still .05 at the time and I went around looking for a bot who was selling them in bulk but had no such luck. I wasn't about to toss tickets around when all I could find was four of them at a time. Oh well.
I think most of the good speculating occurred right after the announcement; now what many are doing is trying to figure out whether or not they're being a greater fool by investing in "x". For anyone who's interested, this is what I bought..
30 Scion of Oona (6 LRW) @ .35 each
9 Kitchen Fink @ .85
6 Knight of the Reliquary @ 1.93
6 Snapcaster Mage @ 6
6 Firespout @ .35
5 Kird Ape @ .25
4 Bloodghast @ 2.75 each
2 Vengevine @ 10 each
It was madness. I missed out on a ton of other specs because there just wasn't much time.
Not bad. I didn't get to write down my prices since I was trying to buy a bunch of cards.
Looks like liliana already shot back up, time to rebuy i guess. I think a Jund small pox loam deck will be good.
Also, is mosouba not working for anyone else? I haven't been able to see the "now pricing" for a couple days.
Seems to be working for me. Seeing pricing update as of 2/6 23:00.
Checking out MTGGOLDFISH, I don`t see many decks currently running it, but without DRS I guess Living End will become a lot more popular. At 0.44 or whatever it's probably pretty safe.
I just bought a few playsets Life from the Loam, around when Rick posted after MJ commented he thinks a deck with it will probably be good. I think right now it`s pretty safe to buy anything that hasn`t really spiked yet for Modern. The problem is figuring out what will give you the best return while being easy, as in not to time consuming, to move. This is what I worry about with RIP. I am just diversifying a bit now before we start seeing daily lists with the bannings/unbannings in effect and think there are better targets, though RIP might have a chance at a higher % return.
I feel like comparing a white card to a bunch of under opened colorless cards is not a good analysis.
You listed stony silence which is a fair comparison
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Innistrad/Stony Silence
Remember that guy who bought 200 or so on a youtube video. He got them at 5 cents though, and not .44.
I think the better spec is to buy RiP at rotation when it's undervalued, and sell it during the next mtgo ptq season.
https://twitter.com/MTGOTraders/status/431529135647645696
https://twitter.com/MattyStudios/status/431525371121373184
Bitterblossom is already at 40+ tix and you can only play it in the practice room...... What a crazy speculation filled world.
This article is pretty good on the subject
http://brainstormbrewery.com/the-unwilling-speculators/
The real question is, why are Torpor Orb and Damping Matrix worth so much more than their paper equivalents? I can't come up with a good explanation other than it having something to do with the online meta. Also, is it possible that Rest in Peace doesn't dip as we approach rotation? It sees exactly zero competitive play in standard with its price being solely dictated by non-standard play. If it becomes a bit more popular with DRS gone it's feasible that it follows the same trajectory as Stony Silence. Unless the mere prospect of standard play is contributing to its current price, I think former scenario is actually very possible.
I've read some tweets on twitter about how torpor orb is underpriced in paper, and there should be a market correction for it anytime now.
My guess as to why they're so cheap in paper is that people don't want to speculate on sideboard cards. And modern is played every day on mtgo, so you need these sideboard cards to compete.
Torpor orb's price on mtgo is easily justifiable due to all the decks that have it in their sideboard. Damping matrix is a head scratcher. I guess damping matrix is in much shorter supply and lots of people specc'd on it, but who the hell specs on this rarely played sideboard card?
As for RiP, i'm fine with missing out on it if it doesn't drop during rotation. I'm not interested in buying a .50 sideboard card and holding it for 4 months.
That article says basically what I've been trying to say. That prices DO move on players buying cards not on shadowy figures manipulating the market. 40? Craziness. Gratz to those who bought them.
Does the JSS this weekend have any potential to move anything?
Any card in standard on MTGO is needed for redemption with other standard legal cards that will rotate. That inflates the price a smudge.
Of course we are in a strange world where there are apparently enough people playing Modern to keep prices high on the remaining copies of a lot of cards. I think only Mythics have the ability to survive a rotation and even then only special ones like Lilly.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Magic 2011/Leyline of Sanctity
I was looking to pick a bunch up when people start playing the waste not discard decks.
He did these too
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Morningtide/Idyllic Tutor
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Conflux/Sigil of the Empty Throne
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Shadowmoor/Runed Halo
I can't complain too much missing on some of these since I was buying into all the unbanned archetypes.
http://www.channelfireball.com/videos/channel-twoo-modern-mono-white-control/
I was lucky enough to catch this article literally minutes after it was released but unlucky to be tight on funds. I ended grabbing a bunch of Porphry Node for .4 a set because it was the cheapest of the bunch. It's honestly mind boggling how his streams trigger spikes like this.
EDIT: Leyline and Halo are actually played in legitimately competitive decks, however.
https://twitter.com/FoundOmega/status/432932521496809472
It's still 47/48 tix on cardbot. So not sure about the call. But I think faeries won't be that good of an archetype at the PT.
I sold my playset of blossoms pretty fast to humans (because I needed the tickets). But the other cards I bought I'm having a hard time peddling to humans. I might have to sell to bots. Selling cards between the bot margins is really tedious. I've been trying to get rid of these cards for the past week. Maybe standard cards are a bit easier to sell to humans (i haven't done that in a year).
I guess the bots are just so convenient that people will pay whatever prices just to have the cards right away. It's also funny that the classifieds are so convoluted that if I wanted to find a human selling a deathrite shaman, i'd have to spend 2+ minutes seeing if there was a human selling than less than what the bots were selling for. If you have a bot chain you like using you can just buy straight from them instead of spending time trying to save 5%. So I can see why it is hard to sell certain cards to humans.
It's unfortunate the trading function of mtgo won't get much better when they force the beta upon us. There needs to be a better way to filter through the classifieds, like a way to block bot chains/people with horrific pricing. And a way to tell if the person with the advertisement is away from his computer, or in a game, or whatever. It's not like i'm asking for an auction house system, which may or may not be good for the economy.
I think another important point about dealing with human traders is most of them are buying lower than bot prices and selling higher than bot prices. Not sure if this is accurate, but I would swear over 50% of the real human ads have worse pricing than bots.