Hi and thanks in advance for your help! I'll preface this by saying I have been a predominantly paper player and speculator up until this point.
I have about 50-60 tix at the moment (actually in the form of current RGD boosters) that are just sitting in my collection. I don't plan on building a new deck until after the next standard rotation or until I can afford a stronger Modern deck.
I have my eyes on a playset of each shockland since they will be very useful come rotation. They've all been kicking around 2-3 tix for a while; will they see a boom similar to the ISD/SOM duals? I'm inclined to think that they will.
This guy just put out a video on his specs, he also likes shocklands and was buying them in the video (Partly why it's 22 minutes)
I asked him about everyone speculating on shocklands in the comments, and he said that at worst you'd break even. Even the core set duals increased in price despite them being reprinted 4 times.
I'm skeptical about shock lands. I haven't bought any, but I haven't sold my excess ones that I got in drafts. So i'm partly hedging there. I'd rather just go in on modern cards, that seems like such easy money. And that guy in the video will soon put up a video on Modern Masters speculations.
I'm Dan N/A in that vid :p. Here are my specs..it's a large basket but I've had a lot of capital to work with recently.
Mythics:
Aurelia, the Warleader @ 3 - She's undoubtedly powerful and worth 6CMC because she can in fact end games. At her peak (not taking into account just after release) she rose to around 7.3. She's seen play in Naya Aggro/Midrange, American Midrange and most notably sees play in Dega Midrange currently. If the format slows down once we lost our good aggro curve toppers I expect that we'll be able to hit 6CMC more comfortably.
Prime Speaker Zegana @ 3 - Similar to Aurelia, she peaked at almost 10 once Prime Speaker Bant became popular. We'll likely be losing Garruk PH and she fills a niche within her colors. It tough speculating on 6CMC creatures, especially since they'll likely never be a 4-of in any deck but the market has already spoken on her perceived ceiling. The new legend rule doesn't hurt either.
Duskmantle Seer @ 3-3.5 - Currently seeing play in BUG Aggro. I think this is a higher risk/reward spec. If an efficient way to mitigate the parity of his effect is released/discovered and he can find a legitimately competitive home he'll sky rocket. He peaked at 7.6.
Legion's Initiative @ 2.5 - Another high risk/reward spec. If any quality Red or Boros affiliated creatures are released in Theros that can really take advantage of it I can also see it shooting up.
Aurelia's Fury @ 3 - Call it a hunch but a card this versatile has a real shot of seeing play in a new meta. It's done nothing but decline since release but I think it's most certainly reached its floor. The mere hype that once surrounded this card makes me think if it even sees fringe play you'll be able to turn a profit.
Obzedat Ghost Counci @ 9 - I'm a bit reluctant to invest almost strictly due to the casting cost and competition with Blood Baron. He did once reach 21.2, should be one of the better 5-drops in the format and gets a bump from the change to the legend rule.
Blood Baron of Vizkopa @ 7 - I'll prob wait on him a little longer as DGM continues to fall. He directly competes with Obzedat so you can call this hedging. He's a part of a less drafted and smaller set so he's more scarce making him a bit more appealing in that regard.
Rares:
Shocks - Yes, I'm pretty heavily invested in shocks. Once Theros hits I have no doubt that they will rise, I'm just not quite sure of their ceiling. I'm pretty much banking on the continued growth of MTG and by all accounts this seems to be the case.
Supreme Verdict @ 1-1.5 - I'm invested in Control becoming a true threat at some point post rotation. Typically you can expect aggro to dominate at the start of a new format but I figure our current hyper aggressive format is somewhat of an outlier. Verdict peaked at 2.9.
Ash Zealot @ .5 - Highly erratic card price wise. She reminds me a lot of Thalia (price wise) because she fluctuates so rapidly. Regardless, there's no question that she's powerful and spiked to 2.3 at one point this season. I can't pass her up at .5 which is as low as she's ever been.
Desecration Demon @ .2 - Big body 4-drop. There's a lot of controversy surrounding the play-ability of this card but it DID find a home in The Rock this season which was IMO half the battle. It spiked to almost a ticket not too long ago.
Cyclonic Rift @ .1-.2 - Relevant control card that peaked at .8ish. Getting 6-7 for a ticket seems like a good buy.
Penny Rares:
Clan Defiance @ .05 - There's a lot of talk about this becoming relevant post rotation with Bonfire going bye-bye. It's overshadowed right now but certainly not under-powered.
Merciless Eviction @ .05 - I can see it becoming relevant if Control also becomes more relevant of course. It's also a sweeper that's not completely dead in the mirror which I believe can come in handy
Nivmagus Elemental @ .05 - I believe Woo has been experimenting with this one with decent success. The card is very combo reliant (Hidden Strings!) but has a flexible mana cost and decent stats out of the gate.
Immortal Servitidue @ .05-.1 Another obvious combo piece that is currently seeing play in Junk Servitude. It's losing pieces post rotation but with the right pieces again I believe there's room for growth.
There's probably several more cards I forgot to mention. There's also some cards I didn't fully expand upon but the variables I take into account include power, history, price memory, block play, standard play, what said card may be replacing and etc. I'm by no means suggesting people should go out and stock up on these cards and I'm not expecting them all to hit. I just thought I'd share part of my summer portfolio.
I'm Dan N/A in that vid :p. Here are my specs..it's a large basket but I've had a lot of capital to work with recently.
I was wondering if that was you.
I agree with the majority of your reasoning. So for the sake of brevity i'll just discuss the ones i have reservations on.
Aurelia's Fury - Gerry Thompson has played a lot of UWR in standard and has said this card costs too much. I don't remember there being much hype about this card other than it's an insane bomb in limited, since it's rolling thunder. LSV gave it a 3/5 for constructed playability. This card also competes with mizzium mortars which is a similar effect.
Prime Speaker Zegana - One of the issues with this card is that it is nullified by sire of insanity. Sire and acidic slime pushed zegana out of the meta.
The penny rares are an interesting thing. I don't think 6 mana wraths are playable in standard. But if you're able to sell it for 10 cents when you bought it for 5 cents, you made 100% profit. If it sees a tiny bit of play you could double your money.
I agree with the majority of your reasoning. So for the sake of brevity i'll just discuss the ones i have reservations on.
Aurelia's Fury - Gerry Thompson has played a lot of UWR in standard and has said this card costs too much. I don't remember there being much hype about this card other than it's an insane bomb in limited, since it's rolling thunder. LSV gave it a 3/5 for constructed playability. This card also competes with mizzium mortars which is a similar effect.
The hype I'm talking about was the ridiculous pre-order price ($30) and people deeming it the next bonfire the moment it was spoiled. We soon realized it had no home but the thread in which it was previewed was quite insane. One of the earlier posts was "I just snagged 4 of them on ebay for $61:D". Everyone subsequently congratulated him for quote unquote "getting one hell of a deal" Also, Thompson and LSV know their stuff but ironically in that article, LSV rated Aurelia's Fury as the best Boros card in the set (above Aurelia herself and on par with Boros Charm).Maybe he's a bit strict on his ratings? Ultimately, I think the card trades efficiency for versatility but I also think it's that innate versatility that increases its chances of finding a home post rotation. It's so easy to say "if it finds a home it will skyrocket" but I have to imagine this cards ceiling is significantly higher than a lot of the other mythics in GTC. At 3 tickets I felt obliged.
Prime Speaker Zegana - One of the issues with this card is that it is nullified by sire of insanity. Sire and acidic slime pushed zegana out of the meta.
Sire of Insanity certainly did screw Zegana over, no doubt. The thing with Sire is I'm quite certain the deck types he currently shines in (Jund/4C Rites) are going to disappear post rotation. I mean, nothing is certain..ever..but I do believe Zegana will get another shot. Based on price memory alone, I do know I can expect her to increase by 300%+ if she rises to the occasion once again. Also, I lot of this is predicated on the fact that I believe these cards have reached their floor. I see nothing but upside.
The penny rares are an interesting thing. I don't think 6 mana wraths are playable in standard. But if you're able to sell it for 10 cents when you bought it for 5 cents, you made 100% profit. If it sees a tiny bit of play you could double your money.
Yeah, the penny rares are fun. I'm currently cruising around my buddy list cleaning up bots I have leftover credit on by picking up speculative penny rares. The only catch is, they're a bit harder to sell. If they double that doesn't mean I've made a 100% profit because I'd likely take at least a 20% loss when selling them back to bots. Looking at supernova bots for instance, if a card is worth .15 they are usually buying it for .1. I'd likely have to wait for them to increase by at least 150%.
Just because a card is insane in a vacuum does not mean it will find a home. Aetherling has proven better at beating control decks, and Blood Baron has proven better at beating aggro (double protection means he doesn't die in combat to anything short of Thragtusk or Thundermaw, and guess what's rotating out?)
So really you are playing the card only in decks that can't support Aetherling mana and only against control.
My picks:
- Shocklands
- RTR's good utility rares (Dreadbore, Abrupt Decay if there's another good 3cc planeswalker, shocklands, etc)
- Aetherling and Advent of the Wurm, once you feel they have bottomed out. This may not have happened yet, but these two will be sure to see a lot of play and are in an underdrafted set.
- Tarmogoyf. It's taken a HUGE hit for MMa, but MMa will have a very small effective print run online.
Just because a card is insane in a vacuum does not mean it will find a home. Aetherling has proven better at beating control decks, and Blood Baron has proven better at beating aggro (double protection means he doesn't die in combat to anything short of Thragtusk or Thundermaw, and guess what's rotating out?)
So really you are playing the card only in decks that can't support Aetherling mana and only against control.
I agree with you, which is why I said I was hesitant. If I felt that him bumping up to 20 tickets again was extremely likely I'd have more than a play set right now. Because you can get him for 9ish ticks however and he is pretty insane in a vacuum I felt good investing in the hope that he'd find a new home. Also the difference betwen Obzedat and Aetherling is usually Obzedat dropping a full two turns earlier. I think he has a greater chance of finding a home outside of control like he did in Dega Midrange and the Aristocrats.
My picks:
- Shocklands
- RTR's good utility rares (Dreadbore, Abrupt Decay if there's another good 3cc planeswalker, shocklands, etc)
- Aetherling and Advent of the Wurm, once you feel they have bottomed out. This may not have happened yet, but these two will be sure to see a lot of play and are in an underdrafted set.
- Tarmogoyf. It's taken a HUGE hit for MMa, but MMa will have a very small effective print run online.
Aetherling and Advent continue to drop. I originally had a classified offering 2 for them each and people were hoping all over it so I pulled back. Currently you can grab them from Goatsbot for 2.19 each. I actually feel more comfortable grabbing Advent because it's much more likely to be played in 4s.
I totally agree on Dreadbore and Decay. Dreadbore specifically is going for around .5 right now and the change to the legend rule makes me think it will become a bit more relevant in the future.
Also I'm really tempted by Domri Rade around 14. I've never understood why he hasn't caught on because he's everything an aggro deck would want in a planeswalker, card draw, removal, and an ultimate that makes them explosive. The only thing I can think of is that he is just outclassed in the 3 drop planeswalker spot by LotV. So when she rotates he hopefully finds a lasting home.
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I was watching Michael Jacob stream a junk tokens deck. And he said Advent of the wurm underperformed. Wurm loses to azorius charm, selesnya charm, unsummon, abrupt decay, detention sphere, angel of serenity and thragtusk. He went on to show all the 5/5s for 4 in magic's history that weren't very good, Iwamori of the Open Fist, rumbling slum, phyrexian obliterator, Deadbridge Goliath.
Tusk and unsummon are rotating out. Angel won't be as big of an issue since unburial rites is rotating as well. But there's also ratchet bomb and doom blade in m14.
So I don't really like advent as a spec.
The problem with domri is he constrains how you can build your deck. So it's unlikely he'll go in multiple decks. You have to hope the deck he's in becomes 15%+ of the meta.
The problem with domri is he constrains how you can build your deck. So it's unlikely he'll go in multiple decks. You have to hope the deck he's in becomes 15%+ of the meta.
It could be said that Liliana of the Veil also has those requirements as constraints to build around her. I just think he hasn't been given a fair shot in the decks. I do agree he won't fit outside of anything other than a heavy creature based deck, so he won't be all over the place. That doesn't mean he doesn't have a place in a potentially very competitive deck though. He really only needs one hit deck to go above $14. That's pretty much bottom of the barrel for a planeswalker that isn't complete garbage.
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Also I'm really tempted by Domri Rade around 14. I've never understood why he hasn't caught on because he's everything an aggro deck would want in a planeswalker, card draw, removal, and an ultimate that makes them explosive. The only thing I can think of is that he is just outclassed in the 3 drop planeswalker spot by LotV. So when she rotates he hopefully finds a lasting home.
I'm honestly not sure on Armada Wurm. It was in a format with Resto which could abuse it and still didn't see any real play. It's actually been seeing a bit of play recently due to more token shenanigans (VoR and Advent) so there's hope. I wouldn't be totally against grabbing a set for 9-10 though, no.
As for Domri, I don't think his ceiling is high enough to merit an investment at 14. Price wise he isn't very comparable to LotV because a majority of her price tag was/has been determined by non-standard play. To my knowledge, Domri hasn't seen much play outside of standard. I do think he's invaluable to Naya/Gruul when Control is present though so if Control does become more relevant all of a sudden he goes from a SB card to a MB staple. From my experience with Naya Midrange, they don't like T3 PWs and absolutely hate when you can land him on T2.
I was watching Michael Jacob stream a junk tokens deck. And he said Advent of the wurm underperformed. Wurm loses to azorius charm, selesnya charm, unsummon, abrupt decay, detention sphere, angel of serenity and thragtusk. He went on to show all the 5/5s for 4 in magic's history that weren't very good, Iwamori of the Open Fist, rumbling slum, phyrexian obliterator, Deadbridge Goliath.
Tusk and unsummon are rotating out. Angel won't be as big of an issue since unburial rites is rotating as well. But there's also ratchet bomb and doom blade in m14.
So I don't really like advent as a spec.
Well, one reason he may not have liked Advent in Junk Aristocrats (I'm assuming it was this build) is because he's kind of unnecessary there. Or was he not referring to it in that specific build? Sorin does a whole lot more at the top of that curve.
I've really liked Advent in testing and I understand it's more vulnerable to lesser forms of "removal" but the fact that he's pseudo removal himself helps his case. In creature or aggro heavy formats being able to flash in, block profitably and go on the offensive is pretty awesome. I also think he's quite better than the 5-drops he mentioned due to the flexibility flash grants. He has one of the biggest bodies ever given flash and evasion. For that size and flash in the past, you'd typically either have to pay a ton (Angel of Salvation, Bogardan Hellkite) or there would be a serious drawback (Dust Elemental). I'm not buying right now but if/when it drops further I probably will.
Well, one reason he may not have liked Advent in Junk Aristocrats (I'm assuming it was this build) is because he's kind of unnecessary there. Or was he not referring to it in that specific build? Sorin does a whole lot more at the top of that curve.
I was watching Michael Jacob stream a junk tokens deck.
It's a powerful card, and seems great in a vacuum, but it doesn't really match up well in the meta. Saying it's a good blocker isn't a valid selling point. It's just going to get rampagered, or its going to die to selesyna charm since that was the only target they could hit with it, and they realized you left 4 mana open.
LotV because a majority of her price tag was/has been determined by non-standard play. To my knowledge, Domri hasn't seen much play outside of standard.
This is false. LotV's price is based on standard. Domri is played in kiki pod, but i don't know if you would consider that being played much.
Why would liliana go up in price when they banned blood braid elf? Jund was the most popular deck in modern, and liliana was only at 33 tickets. When they banned BBE, Jund's numbers dropped dramatically. And during this time was when Reid Duke and Owen Turtenwald were championing jund in standard. And Jund in standard during that time became the most popular deck and liliana hit 48 tickets.
When a card is standard legal and played in standard decks, its price is mostly affected by standard play, not eternal play. There are some exceptions like rancor and foils.
It's a powerful card, and seems great in a vacuum, but it doesn't really match up well in the meta. Saying it's a good blocker isn't a valid selling point. It's just going to get rampagered, or its going to die to selesyna charm since that was the only target they could hit with it, and they realized you left 4 mana open.
I'm not saying it's a good blocker as much as I'm saying it's a versatile beatstick that can create CA or flash in after sweeper and etc. Also I can acknowledge that the "dies to removal" argument is actually more relevant here, but it still sees heavy block play even with the prevalence of Esper Control and their Azorius Charms, Far//Aways and Dspheres.
This is false. LotV's price is based on standard. Domri is played in kiki pod, but i don't know if you would consider that being played much.
Why would liliana go up in price when they banned blood braid elf? Jund was the most popular deck in modern, and liliana was only at 33 tickets. When they banned BBE, Jund's numbers dropped dramatically. And during this time was when Reid Duke and Owen Turtenwald were championing jund in standard. And Jund in standard during that time became the most popular deck and liliana hit 48 tickets.
When a card is standard legal and played in standard decks, its price is mostly affected by standard play, not eternal play. There are some exceptions like rancor and foils.
Of course standard legality creates a price premium but the mere fact that Liliana has proven to be non-standard playable has further increased that premium. I mean, unlike Domri, I don't believe she would be a $40+ card otherwise, which was point. I was wrong to say non-standard play was the reason for the majority of her price tag, although I still believe it to be a large factor. Ironically, I am in the "LotV will dip post rotation" camp or I wouldn't have sold them.
On a side note, it has been confirmed that Garruk PH will not be reapearing in M14 and will be replaced by Garruk, Caller of Beasts (I think). This should help Zegana and her niche within G a bit.
A few comments on RTR mythics that I know some people have pegged as long-term specs:
Niv-mizzit: Pretty decent spec target UNTIL they printed aetherling. Now, I can't imagine any deck running niv mizzit over aetherling, he's completely unplayable.
Armada Wurm: Again, decent target until advent of the worm. Now you get half the card for 2 less, even the block bant decks which used to run armada wurm are running advent. This isn't played in block anymore and i'm pretty sure won't be played in standard.
Trostani: I was about to say she's a good target, but I was thinking she was still 3-4 instead of 5. She doesn't really have any price history much above this, but I think she's going to see a decent amount of play post-rotation and is one to look at if she ever drops back down to ~4. She's seeing quite a lot play in block atm.
A few comments on RTR mythics that I know some people have pegged as long-term specs:
Niv-mizzit: Pretty decent spec target UNTIL they printed aetherling. Now, I can't imagine any deck running niv mizzit over aetherling, he's completely unplayable.
Agreed, I don't see any deck using it over Aetherling.
Armada Wurm: Again, decent target until advent of the worm. Now you get half the card for 2 less, even the block bant decks which used to run armada wurm are running advent. This isn't played in block anymore and i'm pretty sure won't be played in standard.
I feel like 2 extra mana would be worth an extra 5/5 with trample that's a bit more resilient. I'm not super excited about this card but I don't think Advent and it really compete with one another.
Trostani: I was about to say she's a good target, but I was thinking she was still 3-4 instead of 5. She doesn't really have any price history much above this, but I think she's going to see a decent amount of play post-rotation and is one to look at if she ever drops back down to ~4. She's seeing quite a lot play in block atm.
She's one of the few RTR cards that's increased post DGM. I agree.
Also I'm really tempted by Domri Rade around 14. I've never understood why he hasn't caught on because he's everything an aggro deck would want in a planeswalker, card draw, removal, and an ultimate that makes them explosive. The only thing I can think of is that he is just outclassed in the 3 drop planeswalker spot by LotV. So when she rotates he hopefully finds a lasting home.
Armada Wurm - not a chance. Its total failure to see play in block means the card is dead. I actually expect it to fall to 'bulk mythic with casual appeal' price soon.
The reason it is outclassed by Advent of the Wurm is that Advent isn't as cold to Supreme Verdict as Armada Wurm is. If you suspect your opponent has a Verdict in hand, you can cast Armada Wurm to force them to use it, but you can also wait until the end of their turn, then drop out Advent and smash them for 5, and a 5/5 probably warrants the Verdict anyway.
On Domri:
Domri's main issue is that non-aggro decks don't usually run enough creatures to use him, but creature decks usually cannot spend their third turn on a non-threat in this format.
The card is good - excellent, even, but it suffers if you cast it after turn 3 and it's not always the right spell for that turn.
In addition, Domri is at his best when you (slightly) sabotage the rest of your deck to accomodate enough creatures to optimize him. That's a real cost, albeit not insurmountable.
Armada Wurm - not a chance. Its total failure to see play in block means the card is dead. I actually expect it to fall to 'bulk mythic with casual appeal' price soon.
The reason it is outclassed by Advent of the Wurm is that Advent isn't as cold to Supreme Verdict as Armada Wurm is. If you suspect your opponent has a Verdict in hand, you can cast Armada Wurm to force them to use it, but you can also wait until the end of their turn, then drop out Advent and smash them for 5, and a 5/5 probably warrants the Verdict anyway.
It still make zero sense to compare two cards that sit on two different points of a curve and also function rather differently. Just because they have a Wurm token in common does not make them comparable. I'm not saying the Wurm is going to break out, but if you're going to criticize it, at least compare it to some other fatty you'd ramp into or something.
How do you guys feels about..
Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch @ .1-.15 - She's probably the best speculative pick-up (better than Firemane Avenger, Rubblebelt Raiders and the soon to be Ogre Battledriver) as the go-to aggro curve topper in R post rotation but I'm not sure if she's good enough.
Plasm Capture @ .2 - I've read people speculating on this being a thing post rotation. Something like Plasm Capture -> Aetherling seems like it could be pretty strong.
Legion Loyalist @ .5 - He's seeing some legitimate block play right now.
Precinct Captain @ .05-.1 - Also seeing legitimate block play but in Control which I don't ever see carrying into standard.
Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch @ .1-.15 - She's probably the best speculative pick-up (better than Firemane Avenger, Rubblebelt Raiders and the soon to be Ogre Battledriver) as the go-to aggro curve topper in R post rotation but I'm not sure if she's good enough.
She's clearly not as good as hellrider or hero of oxid ridge. I think the card needs a lot more support to be used competitively.
I don't think council is very good, if you want to tap out on turn 4 you'd play Jace.
Notion thief is interesting, as that card can be a huge blow out. And it combos with whispering madness. I'm not to confident it'll go up, but i see the potential.
Plasm Capture @ .2 - I've read people speculating on this being a thing post rotation. Something like Plasm Capture -> Aetherling seems like it could be pretty strong.
People tried that in the block pro tour and they didn't do so well. Though part of the reason is they didn't have a good sideboard vs esper (they lost to night veil specters).
I'd buy the card if travis woo starts streaming a deck with it.
Precinct Captain @ .05-.1 - Also seeing legitimate block play but in Control which I don't ever see carrying into standard.
The reason why this card is played in block is there are very few good defensive 2 cmc spells in block. Augur of Bolas is much much better than captain. So with them printing doom blade and hopefully more cheap anti aggro spells, captain won't be played in standard.
Though I could see Wescoe playing a mono white deck with this. He already has, though it was blue white.
One more penny card I went in on a little (2 tickets wooo) Deadbridge Goliath.
There has been buzz about him since the pro tour and he is the competition with Desecration demon right now in Block Rock decks.
There was an odd spike in his price (from .05 to .35 on 6/10/13). He could still be found for .05 at a majority of bots at this time but I even saw him going for .49 in couple places. He's since come back down. I've rationalized not going crazy on him because A) he directly competes with Advent of the Wurm and B) Scavenging Ooze. I feel like Scavenging Ooze just kills any of that late game upside he can provide.
I've come to the conclusion after mulling it over that Blood Baron really is a superior investment over Obzedat. It has all the makings of a $20 mythic IMO.
It's apart of a small, pretty value-less set
Pro-color creatures have a very good history in magic
It sees a good amount of block play and has picked up play in type 2
Do you guys think it will drop at all or hover around 7-8 until (hopefully) rising?
It still make zero sense to compare two cards that sit on two different points of a curve and also function rather differently. Just because they have a Wurm token in common does not make them comparable. I'm not saying the Wurm is going to break out, but if you're going to criticize it, at least compare it to some other fatty you'd ramp into or something.
Re armada wurm vs advent. This argument has already been solved, advent is superior in all deck types. pre-DGM armada wurm was heavily played as the finisher in bant control and (pre-GTC) selesnya midrange, it's literally nowhere now and given that team SCG was on bant for the pro tour, it's not like this is something that happened by accident. There is still a moderate amount of bant control being played and, obviously a huge amount of selesnya midrange and both of those run a full or close to a full playset of advent of the worm. it's the better card, both for being cheaper (ie better against aggro) and for having flash (ie better against control/verdict).
It seems like an unfair comparison, but advent of the worm is filling literally the same slot as armada wurm did (aetherling in bant control too obviously), it's just not a card in block anymore and I can't see that changing any time in the future. If anyone has a big spec on this, cut your losses now imo, it's going to be a bulk mythic.
Agree. can easily see her hitting .5tix if there's a right BR(x) aggro deck around. Right now, the mana's not good enough to support jund aggro and other 2-colour aggro options are better, but she real potential.
I wouldn't touch either of these, they're sideboard 2 ofs at best.
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Plasm Capture[/CARD] @ .2 - I've read people speculating on this being a thing post rotation. Something like Plasm Capture -> Aetherling seems like it could be pretty strong.
Right now, bant flash is probably the best it's ever going to be in standard... and it's not very good. rewind is better than plasm capture in that deck, if something becomes a deck post-rotation then plasm will see some play but it'll be narrow, and like a 2-of, so not much financial potential.
Legion Loyalist @ .5 - He's seeing some legitimate block play right now.
Yeah, really like this, but probably won't ever top .7 just because he's exclusively an aggro card.
Precinct Captain @ .05-.1 - Also seeing legitimate block play but in Control which I don't ever see carrying into standard.
Agree with rick's assessment, it's ok-ish in block atm, but that's for lack of better 2 mana options which standard will likely have.
I've come to the conclusion after mulling it over that Blood Baron really is a superior investment over Obzedat. It has all the makings of a $20 mythic IMO.
It's apart of a small, pretty value-less set
Pro-color creatures have a very good history in magic
It sees a good amount of block play and has picked up play in type 2
Do you guys think it will drop at all or hover around 7-8 until (hopefully) rising?
Blood baron is amazing in block, but obzedat is inherently a better creature. The reason baron is good in block is that red and green have very narrow roles. Red only appears in hyper aggro (where obzedat is much better), while green is invariably paired with white or black, and most of the creatures in those decks have one of baron's pro colours. His protection is hugely relevant against a massive portion of the field, basically everything other than mono red and (to an extent) esper. But when you play him in standard, you realise how much worse he is there. In block there's no huntmaster, thragtusk, thundermaw (or flyers in general), all of which just embarrass baron. It comes down to there being no real RG midrange in block atm, for whatever reason (reasons probably come down to no good mana accelerants and no good red/gruul/izzet midrange creatures - gruul really got shafted in the 4- and 5-drop department. ruric is nice, but 6 mana is so much). My suspicion is that once standard rotates, red and green will be in a much less narrow place and his pro-colours will be less relevant, relegating him to a meta and sideboard role, kind of like in standard atm.
tl;dr - baron's a house in block because of the small card pool. that's not guaranteed to be the case in standard post-rotation, hence he's a risky pick. Especially as obzedat is better in a vacuum.
I've come to the conclusion after mulling it over that Blood Baron really is a superior investment over Obzedat. It has all the makings of a $20 mythic IMO.
It's apart of a small, pretty value-less set
Pro-color creatures have a very good history in magic
It sees a good amount of block play and has picked up play in type 2
Do you guys think it will drop at all or hover around 7-8 until (hopefully) rising?
It has the same problem as Obzedat. It competes with another near-identical card, and 5 mana finishers are not something you want 8 of in your deck.
Think how hard Tamiyo's price fell when Jace 4.0 was printed and when Jace 3.0 also started seeing play. The cards are somewhat similar in deck role (although obviously some strategies strongly prefer one of the three), but you don't usually want to run more than 5 or 6 4+cc walkers in a deck maximum. So suddenly Tamiyo's demand falls even harder than her supply (and I believe AVR is the Standard-legal set with the least supply at present, due to the limited sucking and redemption being viable for the set).
Regardless of which one you personally prefer or which is better in your deck, the existance of both Obzedat and Blood Baron in Standard pushes demand for both down. If only Blood Baron had been printed, demand for it would be higher as decks that prefer Obzedat to it now would have no choice but the Baron if they wanted a 5cc finisher.
It still make zero sense to compare two cards that sit on two different points of a curve and also function rather differently. Just because they have a Wurm token in common does not make them comparable. I'm not saying the Wurm is going to break out, but if you're going to criticize it, at least compare it to some other fatty you'd ramp into or something.
How do you guys feels about..
Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch @ .1-.15 - She's probably the best speculative pick-up (better than Firemane Avenger, Rubblebelt Raiders and the soon to be Ogre Battledriver) as the go-to aggro curve topper in R post rotation but I'm not sure if she's good enough.
Plasm Capture @ .2 - I've read people speculating on this being a thing post rotation. Something like Plasm Capture -> Aetherling seems like it could be pretty strong.
Legion Loyalist @ .5 - He's seeing some legitimate block play right now.
Precinct Captain @ .05-.1 - Also seeing legitimate block play but in Control which I don't ever see carrying into standard.
For Armada Wurm to become good, Standard would need to shift away from Supreme Verdict and toward one-for-one removal.
As long as Supreme Verdict sees extensive play, 6 mana creatures that die to it are borderline unplayable (at best). OTOH Advent is really, really strong against Verdict.
On cards you named:
Exava: Possibly a marginal Constructed rare but didn't perform in block.
Notion Thief: Real potential, this card more than anything else depends on what's in future sets.
Council: I don't see this being very good anywhere.
Plasm Capture: Again real potential. This is the #2 card on my speculation list atm - it's not that I'm sure it will go up, it's just that if it does, it will go up explosively. I intend to go 20-30 tickets deep in this card.
Legion Loyalist: Only really worth considering if you are running a large number of Battalion creatures, and there's not enough really good ones IMO. Willing to be proven wrong here.
Precinct Captain: 2 mana for 2 power is a terrible deal and he can't force himself through for the trigger. Not impressed here.
Like I've said before, you are still wrong about Liliana of the Veil. She goes up because she increased her playability in other formats. Someone made a good point about the Domri, which is a garbage card beside Standard. I enjoy the fact how you close your mind and believe what you want.
Have you seen her foil price? It's been close to 100 tix right now........
Why would liliana go up in price when they banned blood braid elf? Jund was the most popular deck in modern, and liliana was only at 33 tickets. When they banned BBE, Jund's numbers dropped dramatically. And during this time was when Reid Duke and Owen Turtenwald were championing jund in standard. And Jund in standard during that time became the most popular deck and liliana hit 48 tickets.
When a card is standard legal and played in standard decks, its price is mostly affected by standard play, not eternal play. There are some exceptions like rancor and foils.
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I have about 50-60 tix at the moment (actually in the form of current RGD boosters) that are just sitting in my collection. I don't plan on building a new deck until after the next standard rotation or until I can afford a stronger Modern deck.
I have my eyes on a playset of each shockland since they will be very useful come rotation. They've all been kicking around 2-3 tix for a while; will they see a boom similar to the ISD/SOM duals? I'm inclined to think that they will.
Other ideas: ZEN fetches, Original Duals, Supreme Verdict, Detention Sphere, Aetherling...
I'm basically just looking to get 20% Return On Investment or so instead of my tix just sitting there.
Thanks!
Pauper:
WW White Weenie WW
I asked him about everyone speculating on shocklands in the comments, and he said that at worst you'd break even. Even the core set duals increased in price despite them being reprinted 4 times.
I'm skeptical about shock lands. I haven't bought any, but I haven't sold my excess ones that I got in drafts. So i'm partly hedging there. I'd rather just go in on modern cards, that seems like such easy money. And that guy in the video will soon put up a video on Modern Masters speculations.
Mythics:
Aurelia, the Warleader @ 3 - She's undoubtedly powerful and worth 6CMC because she can in fact end games. At her peak (not taking into account just after release) she rose to around 7.3. She's seen play in Naya Aggro/Midrange, American Midrange and most notably sees play in Dega Midrange currently. If the format slows down once we lost our good aggro curve toppers I expect that we'll be able to hit 6CMC more comfortably.
Prime Speaker Zegana @ 3 - Similar to Aurelia, she peaked at almost 10 once Prime Speaker Bant became popular. We'll likely be losing Garruk PH and she fills a niche within her colors. It tough speculating on 6CMC creatures, especially since they'll likely never be a 4-of in any deck but the market has already spoken on her perceived ceiling. The new legend rule doesn't hurt either.
Duskmantle Seer @ 3-3.5 - Currently seeing play in BUG Aggro. I think this is a higher risk/reward spec. If an efficient way to mitigate the parity of his effect is released/discovered and he can find a legitimately competitive home he'll sky rocket. He peaked at 7.6.
Legion's Initiative @ 2.5 - Another high risk/reward spec. If any quality Red or Boros affiliated creatures are released in Theros that can really take advantage of it I can also see it shooting up.
Aurelia's Fury @ 3 - Call it a hunch but a card this versatile has a real shot of seeing play in a new meta. It's done nothing but decline since release but I think it's most certainly reached its floor. The mere hype that once surrounded this card makes me think if it even sees fringe play you'll be able to turn a profit.
Obzedat Ghost Counci @ 9 - I'm a bit reluctant to invest almost strictly due to the casting cost and competition with Blood Baron. He did once reach 21.2, should be one of the better 5-drops in the format and gets a bump from the change to the legend rule.
Blood Baron of Vizkopa @ 7 - I'll prob wait on him a little longer as DGM continues to fall. He directly competes with Obzedat so you can call this hedging. He's a part of a less drafted and smaller set so he's more scarce making him a bit more appealing in that regard.
Rares:
Shocks - Yes, I'm pretty heavily invested in shocks. Once Theros hits I have no doubt that they will rise, I'm just not quite sure of their ceiling. I'm pretty much banking on the continued growth of MTG and by all accounts this seems to be the case.
Supreme Verdict @ 1-1.5 - I'm invested in Control becoming a true threat at some point post rotation. Typically you can expect aggro to dominate at the start of a new format but I figure our current hyper aggressive format is somewhat of an outlier. Verdict peaked at 2.9.
Ash Zealot @ .5 - Highly erratic card price wise. She reminds me a lot of Thalia (price wise) because she fluctuates so rapidly. Regardless, there's no question that she's powerful and spiked to 2.3 at one point this season. I can't pass her up at .5 which is as low as she's ever been.
Desecration Demon @ .2 - Big body 4-drop. There's a lot of controversy surrounding the play-ability of this card but it DID find a home in The Rock this season which was IMO half the battle. It spiked to almost a ticket not too long ago.
Cyclonic Rift @ .1-.2 - Relevant control card that peaked at .8ish. Getting 6-7 for a ticket seems like a good buy.
Penny Rares:
Clan Defiance @ .05 - There's a lot of talk about this becoming relevant post rotation with Bonfire going bye-bye. It's overshadowed right now but certainly not under-powered.
Merciless Eviction @ .05 - I can see it becoming relevant if Control also becomes more relevant of course. It's also a sweeper that's not completely dead in the mirror which I believe can come in handy
Nivmagus Elemental @ .05 - I believe Woo has been experimenting with this one with decent success. The card is very combo reliant (Hidden Strings!) but has a flexible mana cost and decent stats out of the gate.
Immortal Servitidue @ .05-.1 Another obvious combo piece that is currently seeing play in Junk Servitude. It's losing pieces post rotation but with the right pieces again I believe there's room for growth.
There's probably several more cards I forgot to mention. There's also some cards I didn't fully expand upon but the variables I take into account include power, history, price memory, block play, standard play, what said card may be replacing and etc. I'm by no means suggesting people should go out and stock up on these cards and I'm not expecting them all to hit. I just thought I'd share part of my summer portfolio.
I was wondering if that was you.
I agree with the majority of your reasoning. So for the sake of brevity i'll just discuss the ones i have reservations on.
Aurelia's Fury - Gerry Thompson has played a lot of UWR in standard and has said this card costs too much. I don't remember there being much hype about this card other than it's an insane bomb in limited, since it's rolling thunder. LSV gave it a 3/5 for constructed playability. This card also competes with mizzium mortars which is a similar effect.
Prime Speaker Zegana - One of the issues with this card is that it is nullified by sire of insanity. Sire and acidic slime pushed zegana out of the meta.
The penny rares are an interesting thing. I don't think 6 mana wraths are playable in standard. But if you're able to sell it for 10 cents when you bought it for 5 cents, you made 100% profit. If it sees a tiny bit of play you could double your money.
The hype I'm talking about was the ridiculous pre-order price ($30) and people deeming it the next bonfire the moment it was spoiled. We soon realized it had no home but the thread in which it was previewed was quite insane. One of the earlier posts was "I just snagged 4 of them on ebay for $61:D". Everyone subsequently congratulated him for quote unquote "getting one hell of a deal" Also, Thompson and LSV know their stuff but ironically in that article, LSV rated Aurelia's Fury as the best Boros card in the set (above Aurelia herself and on par with Boros Charm).Maybe he's a bit strict on his ratings? Ultimately, I think the card trades efficiency for versatility but I also think it's that innate versatility that increases its chances of finding a home post rotation. It's so easy to say "if it finds a home it will skyrocket" but I have to imagine this cards ceiling is significantly higher than a lot of the other mythics in GTC. At 3 tickets I felt obliged.
Sire of Insanity certainly did screw Zegana over, no doubt. The thing with Sire is I'm quite certain the deck types he currently shines in (Jund/4C Rites) are going to disappear post rotation. I mean, nothing is certain..ever..but I do believe Zegana will get another shot. Based on price memory alone, I do know I can expect her to increase by 300%+ if she rises to the occasion once again. Also, I lot of this is predicated on the fact that I believe these cards have reached their floor. I see nothing but upside.
Yeah, the penny rares are fun. I'm currently cruising around my buddy list cleaning up bots I have leftover credit on by picking up speculative penny rares. The only catch is, they're a bit harder to sell. If they double that doesn't mean I've made a 100% profit because I'd likely take at least a 20% loss when selling them back to bots. Looking at supernova bots for instance, if a card is worth .15 they are usually buying it for .1. I'd likely have to wait for them to increase by at least 150%.
Just because a card is insane in a vacuum does not mean it will find a home. Aetherling has proven better at beating control decks, and Blood Baron has proven better at beating aggro (double protection means he doesn't die in combat to anything short of Thragtusk or Thundermaw, and guess what's rotating out?)
So really you are playing the card only in decks that can't support Aetherling mana and only against control.
My picks:
- Shocklands
- RTR's good utility rares (Dreadbore, Abrupt Decay if there's another good 3cc planeswalker, shocklands, etc)
- Aetherling and Advent of the Wurm, once you feel they have bottomed out. This may not have happened yet, but these two will be sure to see a lot of play and are in an underdrafted set.
- Tarmogoyf. It's taken a HUGE hit for MMa, but MMa will have a very small effective print run online.
I agree with you, which is why I said I was hesitant. If I felt that him bumping up to 20 tickets again was extremely likely I'd have more than a play set right now. Because you can get him for 9ish ticks however and he is pretty insane in a vacuum I felt good investing in the hope that he'd find a new home. Also the difference betwen Obzedat and Aetherling is usually Obzedat dropping a full two turns earlier. I think he has a greater chance of finding a home outside of control like he did in Dega Midrange and the Aristocrats.
Aetherling and Advent continue to drop. I originally had a classified offering 2 for them each and people were hoping all over it so I pulled back. Currently you can grab them from Goatsbot for 2.19 each. I actually feel more comfortable grabbing Advent because it's much more likely to be played in 4s.
I totally agree on Dreadbore and Decay. Dreadbore specifically is going for around .5 right now and the change to the legend rule makes me think it will become a bit more relevant in the future.
Also I'm really tempted by Domri Rade around 14. I've never understood why he hasn't caught on because he's everything an aggro deck would want in a planeswalker, card draw, removal, and an ultimate that makes them explosive. The only thing I can think of is that he is just outclassed in the 3 drop planeswalker spot by LotV. So when she rotates he hopefully finds a lasting home.
Modern
xWBreakfast at Urza'sxW
UWGBantUWG
GWRNaya ZooRWG
Tusk and unsummon are rotating out. Angel won't be as big of an issue since unburial rites is rotating as well. But there's also ratchet bomb and doom blade in m14.
So I don't really like advent as a spec.
The problem with domri is he constrains how you can build your deck. So it's unlikely he'll go in multiple decks. You have to hope the deck he's in becomes 15%+ of the meta.
It could be said that Liliana of the Veil also has those requirements as constraints to build around her. I just think he hasn't been given a fair shot in the decks. I do agree he won't fit outside of anything other than a heavy creature based deck, so he won't be all over the place. That doesn't mean he doesn't have a place in a potentially very competitive deck though. He really only needs one hit deck to go above $14. That's pretty much bottom of the barrel for a planeswalker that isn't complete garbage.
Modern
xWBreakfast at Urza'sxW
UWGBantUWG
GWRNaya ZooRWG
I'm honestly not sure on Armada Wurm. It was in a format with Resto which could abuse it and still didn't see any real play. It's actually been seeing a bit of play recently due to more token shenanigans (VoR and Advent) so there's hope. I wouldn't be totally against grabbing a set for 9-10 though, no.
As for Domri, I don't think his ceiling is high enough to merit an investment at 14. Price wise he isn't very comparable to LotV because a majority of her price tag was/has been determined by non-standard play. To my knowledge, Domri hasn't seen much play outside of standard. I do think he's invaluable to Naya/Gruul when Control is present though so if Control does become more relevant all of a sudden he goes from a SB card to a MB staple. From my experience with Naya Midrange, they don't like T3 PWs and absolutely hate when you can land him on T2.
Well, one reason he may not have liked Advent in Junk Aristocrats (I'm assuming it was this build) is because he's kind of unnecessary there. Or was he not referring to it in that specific build? Sorin does a whole lot more at the top of that curve.
I've really liked Advent in testing and I understand it's more vulnerable to lesser forms of "removal" but the fact that he's pseudo removal himself helps his case. In creature or aggro heavy formats being able to flash in, block profitably and go on the offensive is pretty awesome. I also think he's quite better than the 5-drops he mentioned due to the flexibility flash grants. He has one of the biggest bodies ever given flash and evasion. For that size and flash in the past, you'd typically either have to pay a ton (Angel of Salvation, Bogardan Hellkite) or there would be a serious drawback (Dust Elemental). I'm not buying right now but if/when it drops further I probably will.
It's a powerful card, and seems great in a vacuum, but it doesn't really match up well in the meta. Saying it's a good blocker isn't a valid selling point. It's just going to get rampagered, or its going to die to selesyna charm since that was the only target they could hit with it, and they realized you left 4 mana open.
This is false. LotV's price is based on standard. Domri is played in kiki pod, but i don't know if you would consider that being played much.
Why would liliana go up in price when they banned blood braid elf? Jund was the most popular deck in modern, and liliana was only at 33 tickets. When they banned BBE, Jund's numbers dropped dramatically. And during this time was when Reid Duke and Owen Turtenwald were championing jund in standard. And Jund in standard during that time became the most popular deck and liliana hit 48 tickets.
When a card is standard legal and played in standard decks, its price is mostly affected by standard play, not eternal play. There are some exceptions like rancor and foils.
I'm not saying it's a good blocker as much as I'm saying it's a versatile beatstick that can create CA or flash in after sweeper and etc. Also I can acknowledge that the "dies to removal" argument is actually more relevant here, but it still sees heavy block play even with the prevalence of Esper Control and their Azorius Charms, Far//Aways and Dspheres.
Of course standard legality creates a price premium but the mere fact that Liliana has proven to be non-standard playable has further increased that premium. I mean, unlike Domri, I don't believe she would be a $40+ card otherwise, which was point. I was wrong to say non-standard play was the reason for the majority of her price tag, although I still believe it to be a large factor. Ironically, I am in the "LotV will dip post rotation" camp or I wouldn't have sold them.
On a side note, it has been confirmed that Garruk PH will not be reapearing in M14 and will be replaced by Garruk, Caller of Beasts (I think). This should help Zegana and her niche within G a bit.
Niv-mizzit: Pretty decent spec target UNTIL they printed aetherling. Now, I can't imagine any deck running niv mizzit over aetherling, he's completely unplayable.
Armada Wurm: Again, decent target until advent of the worm. Now you get half the card for 2 less, even the block bant decks which used to run armada wurm are running advent. This isn't played in block anymore and i'm pretty sure won't be played in standard.
Trostani: I was about to say she's a good target, but I was thinking she was still 3-4 instead of 5. She doesn't really have any price history much above this, but I think she's going to see a decent amount of play post-rotation and is one to look at if she ever drops back down to ~4. She's seeing quite a lot play in block atm.
Agreed, I don't see any deck using it over Aetherling.
I feel like 2 extra mana would be worth an extra 5/5 with trample that's a bit more resilient. I'm not super excited about this card but I don't think Advent and it really compete with one another.
She's one of the few RTR cards that's increased post DGM. I agree.
Armada Wurm - not a chance. Its total failure to see play in block means the card is dead. I actually expect it to fall to 'bulk mythic with casual appeal' price soon.
The reason it is outclassed by Advent of the Wurm is that Advent isn't as cold to Supreme Verdict as Armada Wurm is. If you suspect your opponent has a Verdict in hand, you can cast Armada Wurm to force them to use it, but you can also wait until the end of their turn, then drop out Advent and smash them for 5, and a 5/5 probably warrants the Verdict anyway.
On Domri:
Domri's main issue is that non-aggro decks don't usually run enough creatures to use him, but creature decks usually cannot spend their third turn on a non-threat in this format.
The card is good - excellent, even, but it suffers if you cast it after turn 3 and it's not always the right spell for that turn.
In addition, Domri is at his best when you (slightly) sabotage the rest of your deck to accomodate enough creatures to optimize him. That's a real cost, albeit not insurmountable.
It still make zero sense to compare two cards that sit on two different points of a curve and also function rather differently. Just because they have a Wurm token in common does not make them comparable. I'm not saying the Wurm is going to break out, but if you're going to criticize it, at least compare it to some other fatty you'd ramp into or something.
How do you guys feels about..
Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch @ .1-.15 - She's probably the best speculative pick-up (better than Firemane Avenger, Rubblebelt Raiders and the soon to be Ogre Battledriver) as the go-to aggro curve topper in R post rotation but I'm not sure if she's good enough.
Notion Theif/Council of the Absolute @ .4 and .7 - Control?! Control mirrors?!
Plasm Capture @ .2 - I've read people speculating on this being a thing post rotation. Something like Plasm Capture -> Aetherling seems like it could be pretty strong.
Legion Loyalist @ .5 - He's seeing some legitimate block play right now.
Precinct Captain @ .05-.1 - Also seeing legitimate block play but in Control which I don't ever see carrying into standard.
She's clearly not as good as hellrider or hero of oxid ridge. I think the card needs a lot more support to be used competitively.
I don't think council is very good, if you want to tap out on turn 4 you'd play Jace.
Notion thief is interesting, as that card can be a huge blow out. And it combos with whispering madness. I'm not to confident it'll go up, but i see the potential.
People tried that in the block pro tour and they didn't do so well. Though part of the reason is they didn't have a good sideboard vs esper (they lost to night veil specters).
I'd buy the card if travis woo starts streaming a deck with it.
Yeah I like this card, and if they print good pump spells or more tokens it just gets better.
The reason why this card is played in block is there are very few good defensive 2 cmc spells in block. Augur of Bolas is much much better than captain. So with them printing doom blade and hopefully more cheap anti aggro spells, captain won't be played in standard.
Though I could see Wescoe playing a mono white deck with this. He already has, though it was blue white.
There has been buzz about him since the pro tour and he is the competition with Desecration demon right now in Block Rock decks.
There was an odd spike in his price (from .05 to .35 on 6/10/13). He could still be found for .05 at a majority of bots at this time but I even saw him going for .49 in couple places. He's since come back down. I've rationalized not going crazy on him because A) he directly competes with Advent of the Wurm and B) Scavenging Ooze. I feel like Scavenging Ooze just kills any of that late game upside he can provide.
Do you guys think it will drop at all or hover around 7-8 until (hopefully) rising?
Re armada wurm vs advent. This argument has already been solved, advent is superior in all deck types. pre-DGM armada wurm was heavily played as the finisher in bant control and (pre-GTC) selesnya midrange, it's literally nowhere now and given that team SCG was on bant for the pro tour, it's not like this is something that happened by accident. There is still a moderate amount of bant control being played and, obviously a huge amount of selesnya midrange and both of those run a full or close to a full playset of advent of the worm. it's the better card, both for being cheaper (ie better against aggro) and for having flash (ie better against control/verdict).
It seems like an unfair comparison, but advent of the worm is filling literally the same slot as armada wurm did (aetherling in bant control too obviously), it's just not a card in block anymore and I can't see that changing any time in the future. If anyone has a big spec on this, cut your losses now imo, it's going to be a bulk mythic.
Agree. can easily see her hitting .5tix if there's a right BR(x) aggro deck around. Right now, the mana's not good enough to support jund aggro and other 2-colour aggro options are better, but she real potential.
I wouldn't touch either of these, they're sideboard 2 ofs at best.
Right now, bant flash is probably the best it's ever going to be in standard... and it's not very good. rewind is better than plasm capture in that deck, if something becomes a deck post-rotation then plasm will see some play but it'll be narrow, and like a 2-of, so not much financial potential.
Yeah, really like this, but probably won't ever top .7 just because he's exclusively an aggro card.
Agree with rick's assessment, it's ok-ish in block atm, but that's for lack of better 2 mana options which standard will likely have.
Blood baron is amazing in block, but obzedat is inherently a better creature. The reason baron is good in block is that red and green have very narrow roles. Red only appears in hyper aggro (where obzedat is much better), while green is invariably paired with white or black, and most of the creatures in those decks have one of baron's pro colours. His protection is hugely relevant against a massive portion of the field, basically everything other than mono red and (to an extent) esper. But when you play him in standard, you realise how much worse he is there. In block there's no huntmaster, thragtusk, thundermaw (or flyers in general), all of which just embarrass baron. It comes down to there being no real RG midrange in block atm, for whatever reason (reasons probably come down to no good mana accelerants and no good red/gruul/izzet midrange creatures - gruul really got shafted in the 4- and 5-drop department. ruric is nice, but 6 mana is so much). My suspicion is that once standard rotates, red and green will be in a much less narrow place and his pro-colours will be less relevant, relegating him to a meta and sideboard role, kind of like in standard atm.
tl;dr - baron's a house in block because of the small card pool. that's not guaranteed to be the case in standard post-rotation, hence he's a risky pick. Especially as obzedat is better in a vacuum.
It has the same problem as Obzedat. It competes with another near-identical card, and 5 mana finishers are not something you want 8 of in your deck.
Think how hard Tamiyo's price fell when Jace 4.0 was printed and when Jace 3.0 also started seeing play. The cards are somewhat similar in deck role (although obviously some strategies strongly prefer one of the three), but you don't usually want to run more than 5 or 6 4+cc walkers in a deck maximum. So suddenly Tamiyo's demand falls even harder than her supply (and I believe AVR is the Standard-legal set with the least supply at present, due to the limited sucking and redemption being viable for the set).
Regardless of which one you personally prefer or which is better in your deck, the existance of both Obzedat and Blood Baron in Standard pushes demand for both down. If only Blood Baron had been printed, demand for it would be higher as decks that prefer Obzedat to it now would have no choice but the Baron if they wanted a 5cc finisher.
For Armada Wurm to become good, Standard would need to shift away from Supreme Verdict and toward one-for-one removal.
As long as Supreme Verdict sees extensive play, 6 mana creatures that die to it are borderline unplayable (at best). OTOH Advent is really, really strong against Verdict.
On cards you named:
Exava: Possibly a marginal Constructed rare but didn't perform in block.
Notion Thief: Real potential, this card more than anything else depends on what's in future sets.
Council: I don't see this being very good anywhere.
Plasm Capture: Again real potential. This is the #2 card on my speculation list atm - it's not that I'm sure it will go up, it's just that if it does, it will go up explosively. I intend to go 20-30 tickets deep in this card.
Legion Loyalist: Only really worth considering if you are running a large number of Battalion creatures, and there's not enough really good ones IMO. Willing to be proven wrong here.
Precinct Captain: 2 mana for 2 power is a terrible deal and he can't force himself through for the trigger. Not impressed here.
Have you seen her foil price? It's been close to 100 tix right now........