There is a rather big change this time around. The release events have a balanced payout. The only ones that give out exclusively JOU are the pre-releases and the triple JOU queues. The 4-3-2-2 even slightly favors Theros.
Does this mean JOU will not follow the normal last set trajectory and plummet? It actually seems like it might be more than THS or BNG. The unknown factor will be what is done with the 8-man payouts. If they instantly switch to JOU only the effect would be muted, if they remain BNG only it could cause the weird world with JOU is the most expensive. It also seems entirely probable that the 8-mans will have a balanced payout.
I think the 8 mans will be probably balanced with 2 THS 2 BNG 1 JOU. Wasnt that how it was with RTR Block?
In terms of cards, this is what I predict post pre-release prices.
Ajani - 15-20
Athreos - 10-15
Mana Confluence - 5-8
Scry Lands 3-5
All other Gods - 2-5
Godsend - 2-3
Eidilon of the Great Revel - 1-2
Master of the Feasts - 1-2
Sage of Hours - 1-2
Dictate of Kruphinx - 1-2
Aegis of the Gods - 1
Banishing Light - 0.5-1
Deicide - 0.5-1
Worst Fears - 0.5-1
This set sadly looks pretty bad value wise, almost similar to BNG. I predict it to be around 70-80 tickets right around redemption time. Foil set will probably cost 220-240. Set really doesnt look exciting enough to where prices will be that high after preleases. I think the set in general is a bit overrated. Many of the pros who are testing cards looks as they are really trying to force some of this stuff, but in reality a lot of it is garbage. The set will have its obvious all-stars like any other set, but until rotation, a lot of these cards won't see much standard play.
The other issue besides redemption change is Wizards changed the pack payouts (and then changed them up again when it seemed like Born of the Gods was too high and Theors was too low).
At least for me, a lot of the reason I invested in THS packs was simple arbitrage; I think it's a good thing that the prize payouts are more even, but I got burned taking advantage of what I thought was a simple market failure, haha.
I didn't invest in any packs, since I knew I was going to be playing in a lot of events. I have triple figure of THS packs.
Modern masters caused a spike of GTC/RTR pack prices, so I assume Vintage masters would do the same for THS/BNG. Otherwise it looks like the fall set might be the next obvious time to cash out.
Also pack prices are pretty low because of the past 2 months of good promos. LED and FoW. So lots of people are playing constructed events.
Well, yesterday's announcement brought yet another change in the 8 man payouts. It seems as though Wizards is going to make a decent effort to keep payouts and prices balanced.
Does this mean JOU will not follow the normal last set trajectory and plummet? It actually seems like it might be more than THS or BNG. The unknown factor will be what is done with the 8-man payouts. If they instantly switch to JOU only the effect would be muted, if they remain BNG only it could cause the weird world with JOU is the most expensive. It also seems entirely probable that the 8-mans will have a balanced payout.
Theros Myth Origins Part 1 WUBRG Part 2 GRBUW Born of the Gods
Beta Client Tutorial
Momir Basic Primer
Full article list
In terms of cards, this is what I predict post pre-release prices.
Ajani - 15-20
Athreos - 10-15
Mana Confluence - 5-8
Scry Lands 3-5
All other Gods - 2-5
Godsend - 2-3
Eidilon of the Great Revel - 1-2
Master of the Feasts - 1-2
Sage of Hours - 1-2
Dictate of Kruphinx - 1-2
Aegis of the Gods - 1
Banishing Light - 0.5-1
Deicide - 0.5-1
Worst Fears - 0.5-1
This set sadly looks pretty bad value wise, almost similar to BNG. I predict it to be around 70-80 tickets right around redemption time. Foil set will probably cost 220-240. Set really doesnt look exciting enough to where prices will be that high after preleases. I think the set in general is a bit overrated. Many of the pros who are testing cards looks as they are really trying to force some of this stuff, but in reality a lot of it is garbage. The set will have its obvious all-stars like any other set, but until rotation, a lot of these cards won't see much standard play.
https://twitter.com/FoundOmega/status/458740242242338816
It looks like the redemption tax wrecked prices, though it was strange that GTC hit 3.9 for a 2 month period.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Gatecrash/Gatecrash Booster
At least for me, a lot of the reason I invested in THS packs was simple arbitrage; I think it's a good thing that the prize payouts are more even, but I got burned taking advantage of what I thought was a simple market failure, haha.
Modern masters caused a spike of GTC/RTR pack prices, so I assume Vintage masters would do the same for THS/BNG. Otherwise it looks like the fall set might be the next obvious time to cash out.
Also pack prices are pretty low because of the past 2 months of good promos. LED and FoW. So lots of people are playing constructed events.
Theros Myth Origins Part 1 WUBRG Part 2 GRBUW Born of the Gods
Beta Client Tutorial
Momir Basic Primer
Full article list