Geist of St Traft is up at a level higher than he was in most of his Standard tenure, despite not putting up any amazing results in Modern.
Am I missing something as to why?
As far as I see it, there are two things driving demand for Geist.
One is Innistrad redemption (a minor but not inexistant factor, however, it's not enough to get Mirror-Mad Phantasm to 1 ticket or even close).
The second is Modern tournament performance. Geist doesn't seem to be putting up better numbers now in Modern than Geist decks were doing a year ago, when he was Standard-legal. And Geist is not in any competitive or semi-competitive cheaper decks (which is why Past in Flames is going up).
So as I see it, demand should be notably lower than a year ago, with supply comparable (once you account for the last 6 months of ISD drafting, and all the sets that have been redeemed in that time). Why is Geist going up?
Geist of St Traft is up at a level higher than he was in most of his Standard tenure, despite not putting up any amazing results in Modern.
The second is Modern tournament performance. Geist doesn't seem to be putting up better numbers now in Modern than Geist decks were doing a year ago, when he was Standard-legal. And Geist is not in any competitive or semi-competitive cheaper decks (which is why Past in Flames is going up).
its prob gunna be a promo soon so id probably ditch them soon. theres an image on mtgo of a promo geist, which leads to believe it will probably be the promo sometime in the next few seasons. i cant see what other type of promo geist could be. it will probably be a promo once the mocs/ptqs are running again, since the only reason why we have fow and lions eye diamond is to give anyone a reason to keep playing on mtgo atm.
Meh, being a promo doesn't affect prices all that much -- Force of Will was a promo last year and it's still over 100 tickets. Savannah was printed in two different Master's Editions and was a promo and still hovers around 15 tickets, with the promo having almost no effect on the price (the second ME printing did move it down about 5 tickets).
One thing about the promos is bots are really bad at pricing them, which means moving them is difficult because you generally have to go through humans to do it. Plus, Geist is almost always a 4-of in whatever deck it's played in, so even if it is made into a promo, its price is going to be driven a lot more by it's popularity.
Also, while this is more of a sidetrack and branches into a different conversation, I'm not sure I entirely buy the "people are grinding to get LED and FoW promos!" It just feels insubstantial; I think MODO is just popular right now, regardless of the PTQ and MOCS problems. Modern and Standard daily events all fill up, and a lot of Modern decks are 1000+ tickets plus. Even Legacy and Block (especially on the weekends) is getting good turn out. Are people really investing that much time and money because the "only reason" is to get 100 ticket promos?
As for people playing more to earn promos and the popularity of mtgo, i'd say both can be true. The playerbase can increase and people can grind 8 mans to earn qps for the promo. Also don't forget that the DE cap used to be 256, and standard would consistently hit 200+. Modern jund was always 1k tix.
Blippytheslug used to track modern DE/PE attendance. And when they had the FoW promo modern attendance was the highest it's ever been, yet the prices weren't that high, since it wasn't ptq season.
its prob gunna be a promo soon so id probably ditch them soon. theres an image on mtgo of a promo geist, which leads to believe it will probably be the promo sometime in the next few seasons. i cant see what other type of promo geist could be. it will probably be a promo once the mocs/ptqs are running again, since the only reason why we have fow and lions eye diamond is to give anyone a reason to keep playing on mtgo atm.
Geist's supply is much higher than is the case for LED or FoW.
Geist was 1 in 121 packs in a very, very, very heavily drafted set. FoW was 1 in 80 packs in a set long, long ago that was a terrible drafting set, and LED was 1 in 110 packs in set that was also pretty mediocre to draft and was even longer ago.
I do not expect Geist to be hit much in price at all by a promo version.
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Am I missing something as to why?
As far as I see it, there are two things driving demand for Geist.
One is Innistrad redemption (a minor but not inexistant factor, however, it's not enough to get Mirror-Mad Phantasm to 1 ticket or even close).
The second is Modern tournament performance. Geist doesn't seem to be putting up better numbers now in Modern than Geist decks were doing a year ago, when he was Standard-legal. And Geist is not in any competitive or semi-competitive cheaper decks (which is why Past in Flames is going up).
So as I see it, demand should be notably lower than a year ago, with supply comparable (once you account for the last 6 months of ISD drafting, and all the sets that have been redeemed in that time). Why is Geist going up?
http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/gppra14/welcome
It winning a GP + redemption caused the price to go up. Nacatl's unban + the pro tour caused it to go up again.
One thing about the promos is bots are really bad at pricing them, which means moving them is difficult because you generally have to go through humans to do it. Plus, Geist is almost always a 4-of in whatever deck it's played in, so even if it is made into a promo, its price is going to be driven a lot more by it's popularity.
Also, while this is more of a sidetrack and branches into a different conversation, I'm not sure I entirely buy the "people are grinding to get LED and FoW promos!" It just feels insubstantial; I think MODO is just popular right now, regardless of the PTQ and MOCS problems. Modern and Standard daily events all fill up, and a lot of Modern decks are 1000+ tickets plus. Even Legacy and Block (especially on the weekends) is getting good turn out. Are people really investing that much time and money because the "only reason" is to get 100 ticket promos?
Look at natural order
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Visions/Natural Order
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Promotional/Natural Order
The underground sea promo made the MED version plateau
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Masters Edition II/Underground Sea
As for people playing more to earn promos and the popularity of mtgo, i'd say both can be true. The playerbase can increase and people can grind 8 mans to earn qps for the promo. Also don't forget that the DE cap used to be 256, and standard would consistently hit 200+. Modern jund was always 1k tix.
Blippytheslug used to track modern DE/PE attendance. And when they had the FoW promo modern attendance was the highest it's ever been, yet the prices weren't that high, since it wasn't ptq season.
Geist's supply is much higher than is the case for LED or FoW.
Geist was 1 in 121 packs in a very, very, very heavily drafted set. FoW was 1 in 80 packs in a set long, long ago that was a terrible drafting set, and LED was 1 in 110 packs in set that was also pretty mediocre to draft and was even longer ago.
I do not expect Geist to be hit much in price at all by a promo version.