I've noticed for the current Mirage flashback drafts that all the cards have taken a significant dip in value. Lion's Eye Diamond went from something like 110 to people selling for 80 in marketplace right now. I'm sure that after the week is done that cards will recover in value, but how long does that usually take, and do cards usually get back up to close to original value, say 95%? Assuming that the deck-driven demand is about the same, of course.
Thanks, that's a good reference point. Though I've been looking at other cards, and some don't really bounce back very much at all, though I guess it could be due to their deck/format not being as popular at that point.
I wonder if it's worth it to sell your cards then rebuy them later.
I would say the following variables will affect prices
1) Rarity of the card (expensive uncommons get opened more than expensive rares/mythics)
2) Price of the card (It'll suck to lose 5-10 tickets of value on a 63 ticket mox opal, but you don't really care if your 27 ticket ajani drops 1-2 tickets)
3) Popularity of the draft format (if the set is not being drafted there will be less supply of the cards so the prices won't drop that much)
This week is scars block. Is it worth selling my 3 ticket dismembers? Looking at this graph, the price of dismember does fluctuate, so i might be able to make a half ticket on my copies.
What about aven mindcensor? Kitchen finks? Or what about some rares like ranger of eos or noble hierarch? etc..
I'm going to assume odyssey, time spiral, and lorwyn won't be popular. TSP and LLM were complicated draft formats, and odyssey is an older format which aren't that popular. The older draft formats are harder to pick up. Odyssey also doesn't have that many money commons/uncommons (compared to urza's block), or the money commons/uncommons aren't as flashy/known as in urza's block. But it does have a lot of rares worth .5+ tickets (which tells you commander is played on mtgo).
I think shards block will be popular, since that was a more recent set and it seems like it has the most casual appeal. I'm not sure how popular Scars and Shadowmoor will be. I assume medium popularity. Scars was a recent set so people might be familiar with it and want to draft it, and it does have some expensive mythics. And shadowmoor/eventide also has expensive rares.
I'm probably just going to sell the 20+ ticket cards I have.
And with that said it'll be a great time to buy some of these modern staples.
yeah this seems like too much of a hassle, i'm just going to sell the extra cards I don't use
it would be nice to sell my though my playset of hierarchs, but they are foil. they were cheaper than the non foil one (supernova pricing) it was becuase of that free foil shards block pack they gave to everyone. selling foils is a pain, humans will barely buy the ones that cost 1 ticket more than the non foil (I think the foil market is a bit better with the classic format)
I guess the shadowmoor and lorwyn cards will be good pick ups( 2 packs get opened), as well as the expensive uncommons
it might be worth picking up a bunch of mental missteps for vintage masters
I would think Mox Opal will be fine price wise. Given affinity is relatively cheap for modern I expect the scars block drafts will cause some people to buy into affinity. Given the decent money mythics in MBS and NPH I wouldn't be surprised to see people play the lottery. I also think that TPF will fire a far bit for that exact reason, the goyf lottery.
How much does rares normally depreciate in value when a flashback format swoops in for just a week?
There are a couple of high priced rares for Scars black like.. Birthing Pod and Spellskite. I guess those are really the valueable ones.
If they'll just fall 4-5 tickets each I won't bother going selling/buying as all the "profit" will be eaten by bot/transaction rakes anyway. And that's kind of what I'm expecting anyway. What do you think?
I don't know how to answer this question in a general sense, but looking at the rares in the just-finished Mirage flashback, some fell quite a bit.
How much does rares normally depreciate in value when a flashback format swoops in for just a week?
There are a couple of high priced rares for Scars black like.. Birthing Pod and Spellskite. I guess those are really the valueable ones.
If they'll just fall 4-5 tickets each I won't bother going selling/buying as all the "profit" will be eaten by bot/transaction rakes anyway. And that's kind of what I'm expecting anyway. What do you think?
I don't know how to answer this question in a general sense, but looking at the rares in the just-finished Mirage flashback, some fell quite a bit.
I'm sure it'll recover to some degree, but whether it takes 5 weeks (like Wasteland did) or longer or if it never recovers fully, it's hard to say.
One week of flashback drafts has a much bigger % impact on overall supply for Mirage cards than it does for Scars block cards.
Assuming the drafts are equally popular and 1000 events fire for each (24k packs), that might be 2% of the total Mirage card supply but less than one-quarter of one percent for the Scars block cards.
Genuinely curious: do you have a statistic for those 2% and 0.25% numbers? I am not denying that there is a gap between Mirage and Scars, but I wanted to know if there was an exact number out there somewhere that I am missing.
Genuinely curious: do you have a statistic for those 2% and 0.25% numbers? I am not denying that there is a gap between Mirage and Scars, but I wanted to know if there was an exact number out there somewhere that I am missing.
No. I used the word 'might' to imply that this was a guess.
Actually I think the discrepancy is probably larger than that. It wouldn't surprise me if there's more than 20 Mox Opals online for every Lion's Eye Diamond, even in spite of redemption having lowered the number of Opals.
Understood; the numbers were just fairly specific, so I didn't know if there was a statistic I was missing. Keeping track of drafts firing does seem like it would be a simple stat for Wizards to report (though they don't even report individual win/loss percentages, so who knows when they would release system wide data...).
Understood; the numbers were just fairly specific, so I didn't know if there was a statistic I was missing. Keeping track of drafts firing does seem like it would be a simple stat for Wizards to report (though they don't even report individual win/loss percentages, so who knows when they would release system wide data...).
There is practically no reason to believe Wizards doesn't have the data. What they do not have however, is any real and good incentive to share it.
If you look at wasteland, it took ~5 weeks for it to go back up to its previous value
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Tempest/Wasteland
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/other/03242014/aprilfbd
I wonder if it's worth it to sell your cards then rebuy them later.
I would say the following variables will affect prices
1) Rarity of the card (expensive uncommons get opened more than expensive rares/mythics)
2) Price of the card (It'll suck to lose 5-10 tickets of value on a 63 ticket mox opal, but you don't really care if your 27 ticket ajani drops 1-2 tickets)
3) Popularity of the draft format (if the set is not being drafted there will be less supply of the cards so the prices won't drop that much)
This week is scars block. Is it worth selling my 3 ticket dismembers? Looking at this graph, the price of dismember does fluctuate, so i might be able to make a half ticket on my copies.
What about aven mindcensor? Kitchen finks? Or what about some rares like ranger of eos or noble hierarch? etc..
I'm going to assume odyssey, time spiral, and lorwyn won't be popular. TSP and LLM were complicated draft formats, and odyssey is an older format which aren't that popular. The older draft formats are harder to pick up. Odyssey also doesn't have that many money commons/uncommons (compared to urza's block), or the money commons/uncommons aren't as flashy/known as in urza's block. But it does have a lot of rares worth .5+ tickets (which tells you commander is played on mtgo).
I think shards block will be popular, since that was a more recent set and it seems like it has the most casual appeal. I'm not sure how popular Scars and Shadowmoor will be. I assume medium popularity. Scars was a recent set so people might be familiar with it and want to draft it, and it does have some expensive mythics. And shadowmoor/eventide also has expensive rares.
I'm probably just going to sell the 20+ ticket cards I have.
And with that said it'll be a great time to buy some of these modern staples.
it would be nice to sell my though my playset of hierarchs, but they are foil. they were cheaper than the non foil one (supernova pricing) it was becuase of that free foil shards block pack they gave to everyone. selling foils is a pain, humans will barely buy the ones that cost 1 ticket more than the non foil (I think the foil market is a bit better with the classic format)
I guess the shadowmoor and lorwyn cards will be good pick ups( 2 packs get opened), as well as the expensive uncommons
it might be worth picking up a bunch of mental missteps for vintage masters
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I don't know how to answer this question in a general sense, but looking at the rares in the just-finished Mirage flashback, some fell quite a bit.
Vampiric Tutor, for instance, went from 44 to 36.6 over the course of the week: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Visions/Vampiric Tutor
I'm sure it'll recover to some degree, but whether it takes 5 weeks (like Wasteland did) or longer or if it never recovers fully, it's hard to say.
One week of flashback drafts has a much bigger % impact on overall supply for Mirage cards than it does for Scars block cards.
Assuming the drafts are equally popular and 1000 events fire for each (24k packs), that might be 2% of the total Mirage card supply but less than one-quarter of one percent for the Scars block cards.
No. I used the word 'might' to imply that this was a guess.
Actually I think the discrepancy is probably larger than that. It wouldn't surprise me if there's more than 20 Mox Opals online for every Lion's Eye Diamond, even in spite of redemption having lowered the number of Opals.
https://twitter.com/TheCardNexus/status/448981802414112768
Theros Myth Origins Part 1 WUBRG Part 2 GRBUW Born of the Gods
Beta Client Tutorial
Momir Basic Primer
Full article list