-- BNG packs are going to be low. Unfortunately, MTG Goldfish does not have price history of Mirrodin Besieged packs going back to when it first came out, but it seems like with so many packs being given out as prizes (the sealed decks only pay out in BNG) that a lot of people will be looking to sell them in order to buy THS packs so they can draft. I wouldn't be surprised if after a week or two if BNG packs were less than 2 tickets, in part because...
-- The mythics do not seem geared towards competitive formats, except for Brimaz, Kiora, and Xengogs. The overall power-level of the set seems relatively weak. Couple that in with Standard PTQ season ending and attention shifting towards Modern (because of the PT in February and then Modern PTQ season in the summer), and it is very possible that this set's overall financial value will be very low.
BNG packs will indeed drop like crazy, but not during the release events as those offer triple BNG drafts and people will play those. Then afterwards, there will be more packs paid out than are required for drafts, so they will drop like crazy. Sub 2-tix might be a stretch, but they will certainly go below 2.8-ish. Then, after Journey has released, M15 is out and rotation is coming, BNG will start climbing back up, similar to how GTC has been creeping back up after being, like, 2.4 tix. A year from now, BNG packs will sell for close to 4 tix.
As for set value, I agree that the set overall doesn't look like it will have a lot of playables for competitive standard. That just means that all the value will end up sitting in 2-3 mythics similar to how all the value of DGM is basically in Voice and BBOV.
Rotation may change a lot though, but that's like 9 months in the future.
aren't DKA packs a good analogy? They tanked and never recovered for their entire life in standard, I believe they were sub 2-tix while RTR block was being drafted (whereas ISD went to nearly or occasionally above 4tix).
DKA packs were paid out in a crap ratio for all of their draft lifetime. 1:1 where as you needed a 2:1 ratio of ISD to DKA to enter
an 8-4 paid out 6isd 6dka, and to join another draft you could use 6isd packs but only 3dka packs, so 3dka packs weren't used, which creates a huge supply, and since the vast majority of people only use packs to draft, there's not much demand for those excess packs
however there will be a 3rd set being drafted with ths and bng, which will mess up the payout ratio
assuming the 3 set pay out will mirror rtr/gtc/dgm bng prices should rebound to 3-3.5. so I don't think they will be sub 3 tix forever like dka
aren't DKA packs a good analogy? They tanked and never recovered for their entire life in standard, I believe they were sub 2-tix while RTR block was being drafted (whereas ISD went to nearly or occasionally above 4tix).
Yeah, they tanked to 2 tickets after RTR was released, with a bit of a rebound for a while. But, before RTR they were 2.5-2.75 from at least June to Oct, when RTR came out. Goldfish data only starts around June 2012.
Also, didn`t WoTC change prize payouts for either GTC or DM because pack prices tanked so hard. Think they started giving out RTR boosters again for some events, or a split.
I predict the set to be worth 70-80 tix post pre-release. Brimaz will be 10-15, Xenagos will be 5-10, Mogis will be 5-10, and Kiora at 10. Everything else will be pretty low.
I see the boosters around 3 tops at some point. GTC has shock lands and better Mythics, this set doesnt really have much in general outside of uncommons that are playable in other formats.
I predict the set to be worth 70-80 tix post pre-release. Brimaz will be 10-15, Xenagos will be 5-10, Mogis will be 5-10, and Kiora at 10. Everything else will be pretty low.
I see the boosters around 3 tops at some point. GTC has shock lands and better Mythics, this set doesnt really have much in general outside of uncommons that are playable in other formats.
Brimaz may hit that price and Kiora will depend if she finds a home -- U/G ramp may actually be playable.
None of the monocolored gods ever really got above 8-9 tickets and Thassa was a 4-of, so I would be very surprised if Xenagos got that high as a five-drop (he may be a 1 or 2-of in the R/G Monsters deck). Mogis seems like a bulk mythic to me.
Nobody on MTGO cracks packs for rares, so the pack's price will be dependent on booster payouts. Like rickster said, they will rebound a bit when Journey Into Nyx comes out and will float above 3.
I think Brimaz has voice-like potential. The key for me is that he's cheap, and so a potential 4-of. He will also very likely win you the game if he stays on the board - and is a creature, so is likely to be removed - so the legendary drawback isn't as steep as something like a god's weapon. In addition, there doesn't seem to be any other mythic in the set that's a seriously pushed for constructed playability as him, and certainly can't see any other "auto 4-of" mythics.
Maybe the entire set will be worth less than sets have historically (this will ultimately be determined by the paper price), but if the usual patterns hold then I don't see how the set gets 70-80tix value without a 25-30tix card and brimaz seems like the best candidate.
What kind of deck(s) do you see Brimaz in? The thing about him is that while he looks great, I just don't get what types of decks he will show up in. I'm thinking some sort of Orzhov Aggro, maybe some W/x Aggro but out of the current meta I really cant see where he would fall in at.
It's funny there are a lot of good 3 drops in these white based aggro decks, ajani, spear, banisher priest, xanthrid necro, boon satyr. It doesn't seem like Brimaz will be that impactful, but he'll probably be 10+ tix since some cards need to be expensive support the paper/mtgo redemption equilibrium.
We, the White Weenie players, believe in Brimaz. He is catastic and could be played in Modern Tokens/Legacy Death and Taxes replacing Hero of Bladehold
I have also written down Courser of Kruphix or is it necessarily a 1 tix rare?
I think it`s going to be a cheap rare. It doesn`t let you play an extra land. A 2/4 body and sometimes card draw is ok, but you are also giving a lot of information to your opponent.
I would rather buy Fleecemane Lion at .5 tickets or whatever for a risky speculation.
We, the White Weenie players, believe in Brimaz. He is catastic and could be played in Modern Tokens/Legacy Death and Taxes replacing Hero of Bladehold
I have also written down Courser of Kruphix or is it necessarily a 1 tix rare?
Even in BW tokens there's spectral procession and lingering souls at the 3 spot. Sure you can cut 2 hero of bladeholds for 2 brimaz, but does that really make the deck a lot better? Even in GW hatebears is he better than smiter and mindcensor? I could see having brimaz in the sideboard as a card to side in vs decks with pyroclasm.
In legacy he doesn't tax very well. He competes with mirran crusader and serra avenger.
Courser of Kruphix might be used in the UG deck, or perhaps maze's end.
Brimaz will probably get better after rotation though. So it's an okay long term spec. It'll be a strong card, you just need to figure out where it's bottom will be.
I haven't tested enough, but I only really like Brimaz over Hero in decks that use vial since you can keep vial on 3 and milk 3 drops.
I think he's got standard aggro potential though, but it might be next season before we see that deck since MBC is so good right now.
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Brimaz also works really well with Ephara (curves in to her, makes a token so you can immediately draw a card, and provides two devotion). While Brimaz is probably going to settle around 30 tickets and stay there once pre-release dies down (because he is an obviously powerful and pushed card), Ephara may not be as obvious until some deck Top 8 with her, so she may be a good buy at the start of March.
The prices for Born of the Gods cards are crazy right now. Brimaz is 45 tix, Kiora 28 tix, Courser is almost 12 tix. The scry lands are very high too, with Temple of Enlightenment being over 12 tix. I imagine it must be mostly a supply and demand thing, but these prices are much higher than I expected.
Edit: Bile Blight, an uncommon, is 4.52 tix....lol
The prices for Born of the Gods cards are crazy right now. Brimaz is 45 tix, Kiora 28 tix, Courser is almost 12 tix. The scry lands are very high too, with Temple of Enlightenment being over 12 tix. I imagine it must be mostly a supply and demand thing, but these prices are much higher than I expected.
Edit: Bile Blight, an uncommon, is 4.52 tix....lol
Yeah, this is pretty normal for pre-release weekend on MTGO -- there's a very limited supply because pre-releases are more expensive, but since all the cards are immediately legal in their respective constructed formats, there's a huge demand. There will be a sharp drop in prices on Monday when release events start, and then keep dropping until they plateau around the start of March.
Yeah, I just noticed the set doesn't officially release until tomorrow. I wonder how sharp of a drop off there will be? I remember all the Theros gods were like 7 or less tix the morning of release day.
Brimaz gonna go the footsteps of Voice of Resurgence or will we have some decent value distribution in the set?
This set has more in it than DGM.
Brimaz, the WU god, the GR god, Kiora and (maybe) the BR god will all see at least some Constructed demand. I was cold on Kiora at first (comparing her to Ral Zarek and considering her about the same power level) but she is getting results so far so I was wrong.
So this isn't a 2½ mythic set like DGM was (Voice, Baron, and minor Ral Zarek demand once people grew out of liking that bad Boros mythic).
Longer term I see Brimaz in the low 20s, Kiora in the teens, and two of the three named gods in the low 10s. (I won't guess which ones will do better - Ephara is the strongest in a vacuum but may not have a deck).
On Brimaz - particularly watch him when rotation happens. He is competing with Smiter and Reckoner now for 3-drop slots - once they rotate, he has no competition.
People want to play with the new cards and don't mind paying one extra ticket for drafts. Yes, I realize pretty much everyone here drafts with packs and all, but the people on internet forums aren´t exactly the general population. Besides, you get great value for your cards during prerelease weekend which easily covers the more expensive draft.
That would be true if you were not drafting THS THS BNG. Opening 1 new booster for the price of 15 tickets and being able to win only 2 new BNG boosters for going undefeated sounds like a rip off if you ask me.
Yesterday however was a good day to be drafting the triple BNG's (strange format however). Bile Blight 3 tix, Drown in Sorrow 1, many of the rares were 2-3 tix, plus each mythic paid for a draft. Sadly that only lasted all day yesterday and everything has almost decreased half in price almost. If anyone still has BNG they should dump them now since this is the highest the cards will ever be.
Double trouble here actually. 1) Normal low point for BNG. 2) The flood of all those extra sealed packs has stopped.
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Some possible conversation starters:
-- BNG packs are going to be low. Unfortunately, MTG Goldfish does not have price history of Mirrodin Besieged packs going back to when it first came out, but it seems like with so many packs being given out as prizes (the sealed decks only pay out in BNG) that a lot of people will be looking to sell them in order to buy THS packs so they can draft. I wouldn't be surprised if after a week or two if BNG packs were less than 2 tickets, in part because...
-- The mythics do not seem geared towards competitive formats, except for Brimaz, Kiora, and Xengogs. The overall power-level of the set seems relatively weak. Couple that in with Standard PTQ season ending and attention shifting towards Modern (because of the PT in February and then Modern PTQ season in the summer), and it is very possible that this set's overall financial value will be very low.
aren't DKA packs a good analogy? They tanked and never recovered for their entire life in standard, I believe they were sub 2-tix while RTR block was being drafted (whereas ISD went to nearly or occasionally above 4tix).
an 8-4 paid out 6isd 6dka, and to join another draft you could use 6isd packs but only 3dka packs, so 3dka packs weren't used, which creates a huge supply, and since the vast majority of people only use packs to draft, there's not much demand for those excess packs
however there will be a 3rd set being drafted with ths and bng, which will mess up the payout ratio
assuming the 3 set pay out will mirror rtr/gtc/dgm bng prices should rebound to 3-3.5. so I don't think they will be sub 3 tix forever like dka
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showpost.php?p=10606181&postcount=1
Yeah, they tanked to 2 tickets after RTR was released, with a bit of a rebound for a while. But, before RTR they were 2.5-2.75 from at least June to Oct, when RTR came out. Goldfish data only starts around June 2012.
Also, didn`t WoTC change prize payouts for either GTC or DM because pack prices tanked so hard. Think they started giving out RTR boosters again for some events, or a split.
I see the boosters around 3 tops at some point. GTC has shock lands and better Mythics, this set doesnt really have much in general outside of uncommons that are playable in other formats.
Brimaz may hit that price and Kiora will depend if she finds a home -- U/G ramp may actually be playable.
None of the monocolored gods ever really got above 8-9 tickets and Thassa was a 4-of, so I would be very surprised if Xenagos got that high as a five-drop (he may be a 1 or 2-of in the R/G Monsters deck). Mogis seems like a bulk mythic to me.
Nobody on MTGO cracks packs for rares, so the pack's price will be dependent on booster payouts. Like rickster said, they will rebound a bit when Journey Into Nyx comes out and will float above 3.
Maybe the entire set will be worth less than sets have historically (this will ultimately be determined by the paper price), but if the usual patterns hold then I don't see how the set gets 70-80tix value without a 25-30tix card and brimaz seems like the best candidate.
I think it`s going to be a cheap rare. It doesn`t let you play an extra land. A 2/4 body and sometimes card draw is ok, but you are also giving a lot of information to your opponent.
I would rather buy Fleecemane Lion at .5 tickets or whatever for a risky speculation.
Even in BW tokens there's spectral procession and lingering souls at the 3 spot. Sure you can cut 2 hero of bladeholds for 2 brimaz, but does that really make the deck a lot better? Even in GW hatebears is he better than smiter and mindcensor? I could see having brimaz in the sideboard as a card to side in vs decks with pyroclasm.
In legacy he doesn't tax very well. He competes with mirran crusader and serra avenger.
Courser of Kruphix might be used in the UG deck, or perhaps maze's end.
Brimaz will probably get better after rotation though. So it's an okay long term spec. It'll be a strong card, you just need to figure out where it's bottom will be.
I think he's got standard aggro potential though, but it might be next season before we see that deck since MBC is so good right now.
Edit: Bile Blight, an uncommon, is 4.52 tix....lol
Yeah, this is pretty normal for pre-release weekend on MTGO -- there's a very limited supply because pre-releases are more expensive, but since all the cards are immediately legal in their respective constructed formats, there's a huge demand. There will be a sharp drop in prices on Monday when release events start, and then keep dropping until they plateau around the start of March.
https://twitter.com/MTGOClanTeam/status/434802908656181248
Also on Monday you get to triple draft BNG
so yeah it's going to drop
Since drafts are 15 tix and sealed is 25 tix, the price is only high until tomorrow.
This set has more in it than DGM.
Brimaz, the WU god, the GR god, Kiora and (maybe) the BR god will all see at least some Constructed demand. I was cold on Kiora at first (comparing her to Ral Zarek and considering her about the same power level) but she is getting results so far so I was wrong.
So this isn't a 2½ mythic set like DGM was (Voice, Baron, and minor Ral Zarek demand once people grew out of liking that bad Boros mythic).
Longer term I see Brimaz in the low 20s, Kiora in the teens, and two of the three named gods in the low 10s. (I won't guess which ones will do better - Ephara is the strongest in a vacuum but may not have a deck).
On Brimaz - particularly watch him when rotation happens. He is competing with Smiter and Reckoner now for 3-drop slots - once they rotate, he has no competition.
That would be true if you were not drafting THS THS BNG. Opening 1 new booster for the price of 15 tickets and being able to win only 2 new BNG boosters for going undefeated sounds like a rip off if you ask me.
Yesterday however was a good day to be drafting the triple BNG's (strange format however). Bile Blight 3 tix, Drown in Sorrow 1, many of the rares were 2-3 tix, plus each mythic paid for a draft. Sadly that only lasted all day yesterday and everything has almost decreased half in price almost. If anyone still has BNG they should dump them now since this is the highest the cards will ever be.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/index/BNG
Double trouble here actually. 1) Normal low point for BNG. 2) The flood of all those extra sealed packs has stopped.
Waiting for a better time on JIN.
(also, ouch at how much they have already gone up in three days)