omenspeaker? seems decent vs mono red. tidebinder mage could get there if you're trying to do anything with devotion.
I bought some tidebinders at almost nothing, but they likely won't go up until something else comes to play with them. Sideboard card in merfolk at least. Omenspeaker is decent, just barely playable and UW deck's will need to use either that or the much harder to cast precinct captain on D. Omenspeaker probably wins there for UW control. Esper probably will just ignore it, and has that 3/3 for 2 wall that can attack later on if they wanted.
Ugh, Theros boosters are at 3.0-3.25 now, but that's 3 hours after the events started.
There are 3345 people in the release queues which makes this the most people ever in the release queues??
So it looks like i'm going to be stuck holding these boosters for 3+ months. This is pretty unfortunate as I have a bunch of m14 boosters i need to get rid of, but those also need more time to go up in price.
Ugh, Theros boosters are at 3.0-3.25 now, but that's 3 hours after the events started.
There are 3345 people in the release queues which makes this the most people ever in the release queues??
So it looks like i'm going to be stuck holding these boosters for 3+ months. This is pretty unfortunate as I have a bunch of m14 boosters i need to get rid of, but those also need more time to go up in price.
Isn't the price so low just because nobody can use them to draft yet? Shouldn't it increase considerably once release drafts begin?
Isn't the price so low just because nobody can use them to draft yet? Shouldn't it increase considerably once release drafts begin?
You could be right. But I think Theros will follow Gatecrash's price trend more than RTR. GTC had the redemption tax added to it and it was triple drafted as well.
Sorry to ask an obvious question, but for those who have lived through it: Is it generally a good idea to sell singles from the new set quickly or wait?
I have a few money cards from the prerelease which are all selling for decent but not amazing prices - ie a $9 mythic, a couple of $2 rares, et cetera. I personally imagine some of these will be heavily used going forward, but then I'm not exactly a platinum pro.
also don't forget this set is going to be drafted a ton, since it's the first set, and you open boosters in each draft format since it's the classic big/small/small (like SOM block)
so the prices of cards are going drop a lot this week, then might pick back up saturday/sunday for the PT
Definitely a sell now scenario unless you're trying to speculate on a certain low value mythic. I was getting 4-5 tix for Lotleth Trolls when the prere dropped. Look at them now 8)
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also don't forget this set is going to be drafted a ton, since it's the first set, and you open boosters in each draft format since it's the classic big/small/small (like SOM block)
so the prices of cards are going drop a lot this week, then might pick back up saturday/sunday for the PT
I would sell cards now, then rebuy during the PT.
So which cards (if any) will you be purchasing at the inevitable low point and expect returns like Chandra, Pyromaster and the like?
I think the gods are very cheap, one of them will definitely rise in price after the pro tour.
Just hard to know which.
5 tix for a god is cheap, in my opinion.
I think the gods are very cheap, one of them will definitely rise in price after the pro tour.
Just hard to know which.
5 tix for a god is cheap, in my opinion.
Agreed if the price keeps coming down. Mono green seems decent, Heliod wants a controlish deck to work as does Erebos. I actually think Thassa is the least likely to make an impact, just hard to see it ever turning on itself.
Well the prices haven't bottomed out yet, so speculation now is pretty foolish. The prices are too high on some of them. I guess Xenagos could be a good spec, as walkers usually are, and this card already dropped 5 tickets.
I do agree that the gods could be a good spec. They're like crappy titans. All the m11 titans had big fluctuations in price except frost titan.
Something to note. Lightning strike is worth ~.30, and fanatic of Mogis is worth 1.2-2.0 tickets. I'd sell them right now before they drop in price due to the release queues. It's interesting that these cards went up in price. I decided to keep the copies that I drafted since I thought I would play with them in 2 weeks for THS block constructed. It looks like Burning-tree emissary kind of did that trend.
First of all, I think the analysis is good overall.
When it comes to analyzing the prices of boosters, it's important to consider the prize payouts for different formats. When it's BTT, it should be something like this.
First, every BTT draft requires 8 B, and 16 T. This is important. This is the approximate ratio every drafter wants. When a drafter has a bunch of extra boosters of one or the other, these are 'extra' and thus, not worth as much as the one needed to complete draft sets. Again, this is very important to keep in mind.
Now, let's look at prize payouts for drafts.
(Note, I might not have my numbers exactly right here, I'd have to double check them.)
8-4 (12 packs total, 4 draft sets)
1st: 2 draft sets plus BB (I think), so TTTT BBBB
2nd 1 draft set plus B, TTBB
8-4 drafts skew the market by awarding a lopsided amount of B, relative to T and relative to demand for T. You need TT for every draft, but you only need B for every draft. And yet, they are awarded at the same rate. This causes a long term supply glut of B, and a relative shortage of T.
Next,
4-3-2-2 (11 packs total)
1st 1 draft set plus B, TTBB
2nd 1 draft set TTB
3rd,4th TB, TB
Here we have a total of 6 T, and 5 B. Not as skewed as 8-4, but still awarding a high amount of B relative to what is needed to draft with.
Next, Swiss
3-0 1 draft set, TTB
2-1 TB
1-2 B
That's TTB, TB, TB, TB, B, B, B
That's 5 packs of T, and 7 packs of B. Very skewed.
All together, the prize payouts are such that T will become relatively more valuable over time because it is not being awarded as frequently as B is relative to how much you need each pack for a draft.
The same effect occurs when the 3rd set is released and it gets even more magnified as the 3rd set is the most commonly awarded pack in 4-3-2-2 and Swiss.
Note, this totally ignores what the prizes are for constructed and just focuses on input/output of draft queues.
What's the take away from all this? Well, you should be stocking up on Theros boosters prior to the release of Born of the Gods. They will inevitably get to 4 tix or so, so buying when they are 3.5 or less is good value. If they get down to 3.0 tix, they should be a snap buy as long as you are willing to hold them for a few months. This effect should also occur for Born of the Gods after the release of the 3rd set, but this is a little riskier due to the supply glut caused by BTT draft payouts. Lastly, stay away from speculating on boosters from the 3rd set.
What's the take away from all this? Well, you should be stocking up on Theros boosters prior to the release of Born of the Gods. They will inevitably get to 4 tix or so, so buying when they are 3.5 or less is good value. If they get down to 3.0 tix, they should be a snap buy as long as you are willing to hold them for a few months. This effect should also occur for Born of the Gods after the release of the 3rd set, but this is a little riskier due to the supply glut caused by BTT draft payouts. Lastly, stay away from speculating on boosters from the 3rd set.
Thanks for the analysis. Hopefully they don't change the payouts, otherwise all this work was done for nothing.
How long does it take for the prices of cards to go down after the pre-release spike? Is it usually not until release weekend?
The earliest you'd want to buy the rares would be a few days before the release events end. That way people have been cracking packs for drafts for ~15 days, and people are selling their cards to join another queue. This can be a good time to buy mythics as well, though they are more prone to spiking up in price, especially since there's a PT this weekend.
However they changed the sealed payouts. I've read on twitter that the sealed queues aren't firing as much compared to draft. So there could be not as much product opened.
The release queues end on the 23rd. I'm probably going to buy my cards on the 20th-22nd.
However they changed the sealed payouts. I've read on twitter that the sealed queues aren't firing as much compared to draft. So there could be not as much product opened.
The release queues end on the 23rd. I'm probably going to buy my cards on the 20th-22nd.
The sealed change is pretty bad for anyone who thinks about making a profit off mtgo whether through grinding, speculation, or EV. It does seem to indicate that THS boosters won't drop as much as the price to enter is lower, less packs are awarded, and the disinterest could correspond to more drafts firing.
I don't really follow Germagic's logic to compare M14's prices 3 months after release to Theros prices 5 days after release. This discussion is about prices during release events.
So has the Wizards' creating the mythic rarity level led to more packs being opened overall per set? Considering that so many of the most powerful cards are in that rarity slot, which means more packs have to be opened to get the same number of playsets, it makes sense that people would be cracking more packs. But I don't know if the data bears that out.
I'm expecting Nightveil Specter and Tidebinder Mage to also gain a bit as they are fantastic devotion enablers in the more aggressive version of the Blue Devotion deck.
I bought 40 tidebinder mages. Half at .05 and a bunch more last night at like .7/8.
Already up to 1.5 online and climbing. Will probably be a 2-3 ticket card tomorrow, and if blue wins the PT? Huge gains.
I got in on 2 master of waves at 11(almost nobody was selling by then) and Thassa at 11 as well.
I bought some tidebinders at almost nothing, but they likely won't go up until something else comes to play with them. Sideboard card in merfolk at least. Omenspeaker is decent, just barely playable and UW deck's will need to use either that or the much harder to cast precinct captain on D. Omenspeaker probably wins there for UW control. Esper probably will just ignore it, and has that 3/3 for 2 wall that can attack later on if they wanted.
There are 3345 people in the release queues which makes this the most people ever in the release queues??
So it looks like i'm going to be stuck holding these boosters for 3+ months. This is pretty unfortunate as I have a bunch of m14 boosters i need to get rid of, but those also need more time to go up in price.
Isn't the price so low just because nobody can use them to draft yet? Shouldn't it increase considerably once release drafts begin?
You could be right. But I think Theros will follow Gatecrash's price trend more than RTR. GTC had the redemption tax added to it and it was triple drafted as well.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/Gatecrash+Booster+%5BGTC%5D
I guess there might be a point in time 3 weeks from now where you can get 3.5-3.6 tix per pack.
I have a few money cards from the prerelease which are all selling for decent but not amazing prices - ie a $9 mythic, a couple of $2 rares, et cetera. I personally imagine some of these will be heavily used going forward, but then I'm not exactly a platinum pro.
just look at these m14 mythics
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/Garruk%2C+Caller+of+Beasts+%5BM14%5D
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/Archangel+of+Thune+%5BM14%5D
also don't forget this set is going to be drafted a ton, since it's the first set, and you open boosters in each draft format since it's the classic big/small/small (like SOM block)
so the prices of cards are going drop a lot this week, then might pick back up saturday/sunday for the PT
I would sell cards now, then rebuy during the PT.
So which cards (if any) will you be purchasing at the inevitable low point and expect returns like Chandra, Pyromaster and the like?
Just hard to know which.
5 tix for a god is cheap, in my opinion.
Agreed if the price keeps coming down. Mono green seems decent, Heliod wants a controlish deck to work as does Erebos. I actually think Thassa is the least likely to make an impact, just hard to see it ever turning on itself.
I do agree that the gods could be a good spec. They're like crappy titans. All the m11 titans had big fluctuations in price except frost titan.
Something to note. Lightning strike is worth ~.30, and fanatic of Mogis is worth 1.2-2.0 tickets. I'd sell them right now before they drop in price due to the release queues. It's interesting that these cards went up in price. I decided to keep the copies that I drafted since I thought I would play with them in 2 weeks for THS block constructed. It looks like Burning-tree emissary kind of did that trend.
When it comes to analyzing the prices of boosters, it's important to consider the prize payouts for different formats. When it's BTT, it should be something like this.
First, every BTT draft requires 8 B, and 16 T. This is important. This is the approximate ratio every drafter wants. When a drafter has a bunch of extra boosters of one or the other, these are 'extra' and thus, not worth as much as the one needed to complete draft sets. Again, this is very important to keep in mind.
Now, let's look at prize payouts for drafts.
(Note, I might not have my numbers exactly right here, I'd have to double check them.)
8-4 (12 packs total, 4 draft sets)
1st: 2 draft sets plus BB (I think), so TTTT BBBB
2nd 1 draft set plus B, TTBB
8-4 drafts skew the market by awarding a lopsided amount of B, relative to T and relative to demand for T. You need TT for every draft, but you only need B for every draft. And yet, they are awarded at the same rate. This causes a long term supply glut of B, and a relative shortage of T.
Next,
4-3-2-2 (11 packs total)
1st 1 draft set plus B, TTBB
2nd 1 draft set TTB
3rd,4th TB, TB
Here we have a total of 6 T, and 5 B. Not as skewed as 8-4, but still awarding a high amount of B relative to what is needed to draft with.
Next, Swiss
3-0 1 draft set, TTB
2-1 TB
1-2 B
That's TTB, TB, TB, TB, B, B, B
That's 5 packs of T, and 7 packs of B. Very skewed.
All together, the prize payouts are such that T will become relatively more valuable over time because it is not being awarded as frequently as B is relative to how much you need each pack for a draft.
The same effect occurs when the 3rd set is released and it gets even more magnified as the 3rd set is the most commonly awarded pack in 4-3-2-2 and Swiss.
Note, this totally ignores what the prizes are for constructed and just focuses on input/output of draft queues.
What's the take away from all this? Well, you should be stocking up on Theros boosters prior to the release of Born of the Gods. They will inevitably get to 4 tix or so, so buying when they are 3.5 or less is good value. If they get down to 3.0 tix, they should be a snap buy as long as you are willing to hold them for a few months. This effect should also occur for Born of the Gods after the release of the 3rd set, but this is a little riskier due to the supply glut caused by BTT draft payouts. Lastly, stay away from speculating on boosters from the 3rd set.
Writer at QuietSpeculation.com
@thepricesignal on twitter
[Clan Flamingo]
Thanks for the analysis. Hopefully they don't change the payouts, otherwise all this work was done for nothing.
The earliest you'd want to buy the rares would be a few days before the release events end. That way people have been cracking packs for drafts for ~15 days, and people are selling their cards to join another queue. This can be a good time to buy mythics as well, though they are more prone to spiking up in price, especially since there's a PT this weekend.
However they changed the sealed payouts. I've read on twitter that the sealed queues aren't firing as much compared to draft. So there could be not as much product opened.
The release queues end on the 23rd. I'm probably going to buy my cards on the 20th-22nd.
[Clan Flamingo]
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the predictions I made at the start of this thread could be wrong. we'll have to wait and see what happens after the release queues
these high prices are great for constructed players, as you don't have to hold packs for months to get a decent price for them
though you might not be able to speculate on packs anymore if they don't fluctuate
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/THS
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/GTC
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/M14
Looking at them 5 days out after release
THS 1.2
M14 0.7
GTC 1.7
Though when you compare just the mythics, THS is abnormally higher 5 days after release
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/THS_M (7.2)
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/GTC_M (4.4)
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/M14_M (3.7)
it's even higher than RTR (pre redemption tax set)
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/RTR_M (6.0)
I don't really follow Germagic's logic to compare M14's prices 3 months after release to Theros prices 5 days after release. This discussion is about prices during release events.
The first 3 rounds are draft, and I'm going to assume there's a lunch break after that. So the constructed portion will be ~10 hours from my post.
http://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/1o4w37/pro_tour_theros_is_tomorrow/
Master of Waves shot up. I've heard it being called the blue huntmaster...
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/card/Master+of+Waves+%5BTHS%5D
Apparently a deck with MoW got first place at states.
http://www.mtgdecks.net/decks/view/58610
Since it's a mythic, I could see this spiking up to 20+ due to PT hype (if it does well at the PT).
Up to 11 now...
http://mosouba.com/?lang=en&pagename=carddata&cardid=2103
too bad i was sleeping while it jumped 3 tickets in an hour
Thassa, God of the Sea is also moving up now very sharply.
I'm expecting Nightveil Specter and Tidebinder Mage to also gain a bit as they are fantastic devotion enablers in the more aggressive version of the Blue Devotion deck.
Already up to 1.5 online and climbing. Will probably be a 2-3 ticket card tomorrow, and if blue wins the PT? Huge gains.
I got in on 2 master of waves at 11(almost nobody was selling by then) and Thassa at 11 as well.