There's not many cards to discuss, but that'll happen soon enough.
I wanted to discuss Theros block booster prices. I think there's potential to make some tickets if they continue to have skewed payouts. I'd like to figure this out ahead of time.
The first scenario will have Theros pay out in all formats. Just like how everything pays out in m14. So assuming Theros is a "good" draft format, booster prices will be around 3.0-3.8 during this time.
The second scenario is where i'm at a loss for the pay outs. I don't remember how MBS/SOM/SOM and DKA/ISD/ISD events paid out. I believe the payouts will be close to 50% Theros/50% Born. That means there will be a shortage of Theros boosters. You need a 2 Theros, 1 Born ratio to enter the draft, but all events pay out in a near 1:1 ratio. Given that info, Theros boosters should increase to 3.5-4.0 and Born boosters should drop to 2.0-3.0 during this time.
The 3rd scenario will pay out just like how DGR did. There will be an excess supply of Journey boosters. Journey will be worth 1.9-2.5, Born will be worth 3.0-3.5 and Theros will be worth 3.5-4.0 during this time.
With that said. If you are a contructed player you should try to not sell your Theros boosters for less than 3.7 as they'll probably hit 3.7 when the third set comes out.
If you want to invest in boosters, you should try to get Theros at 3.0-3.2 and Born at 2.0-2.5. You're probably screwed with Journey boosters, but we'll see what happens to DGM boosters as time goes on.
What do you guys think? Are these good assumptions? Do you think my price ranges are accurate?
So now that some cards have been spoiled, what do you think of merciless eviction to kill enchantments, especially indestructible ones? It's already up to .27 on cardbot (up from .09 earlier today).
So now that some cards have been spoiled, what do you think of merciless eviction to kill enchantments, especially indestructible ones? It's already up to .27 on cardbot (up from .09 earlier today).
That is nothing to speculate. IF it goes up to 1 tix from .09, then we would talk about that.
That is nothing to speculate. IF it goes up to 1 tix from .09, then we would talk about that.
I think you don't quite understand the meaning of 'speculate' - whether merciless eviction will CONTINUE to rise in the future, not the already significant 300% (but small potatoes in absolute numbers) that it has already jumped.
I think it's possible merciless will go up to a .5-1 ticket rarre.
I'm also looking at Domri to jump up a few points, with R/(g) and naya already a significant force in standard and block for a while, and now a new RG creature-based planeswalker to complement him.
I think you don't quite understand the meaning of 'speculate' - whether merciless eviction will CONTINUE to rise in the future, not the already significant 300% (but small potatoes in absolute numbers) that it has already jumped.
I think it's possible merciless will go up to a .5-1 ticket rarre.
I'm also looking at Domri to jump up a few points, with R/(g) and naya already a significant force in standard and block for a while, and now a new RG creature-based planeswalker to complement him.
Jumping from .09 to .27 doesn't actually mean anything. It can easily jump back to .09 again at anytime. Also, the cardbot source is one of the worst sources to look up for a card's value. That is not speculating but that is over exaggerating.
I personally don't think the gods are that great in constructed, so Merciless probably won't go much higher, especially since it's in the same block as another excellent wrath.
I can guarantee you that WotC would not print a 5 card mythic cycle in each set of the block unless they expected it to make a splash in Constructed.
Not necessarily every card, but some of them will. Look at Trostani, Aurelia, Zegana and co - a 10 card mythic cycle spread thoughout a block that wasn't really aimed at tourney players but had some cards pushed far enough that they saw play.
The red God will see alot of play I think. Turns all your useless 1 drops into free shocks, huge body if you can ever get him online and red doesn't have any other good 4 drop yet. Signs point to him seeing some play.
The rest it's hard to say but id be shocked if each one didn't see at least some play. Maybe Green the least, Blue the most.
I actually think Heliod is the best god even though general opinion seems to be he's the worst, but Heliod is the only god who can do something relevant all by itself. Others require noticeable amount of other cards in order to have impact (I guess one could say Thassa also does something by itself but scry 1 isn't all that powerful imo).
I'm skeptical of the Gods. (har har har) There's a reason enchantments have been the least played card type. I think they'll be a blast in casual and will probably get some constructed play, but they're 2 ofs in very specific decks, not something that shows up all over the place.
The set looks to be producing a couple of good staple rares.
I expect Chained to the Rocks and Hero's Downfall to be a thing, although probably not as 4 ofs. Soldier of the Pantheon might turn out to be a 4 of. Polyukranos I could see taking over standard but I expect his price to start very high. I'm thinking of investing in WR staples from RTR now as well as I expect this deck to do pretty well.
This is a positive change for bad players, but a negative change for good players. And it's probably a slight negative change for average players since they can't rejoin for free whenever they 3-1 the event. I think the popularity of the events might not change as much. Though I'm basing this partly on new players filling the gap of the people who will no longer play in these queues.
The reduced payout means there will be less boosters in the system. Which means booster prices will stay higher than normal. They probably won't drop down to 3 tix, like Gatecrash and M14. I guess this is a pretty good outcome since you don't have to hold your booster winnings for 2-3 months to try to get 3.5+ tickets. However, like I said in original post, there will likely be a shortage of Theros boosters during the 2nd and 3rd sets, even more so now that they are reducing the supply.
It looks like you can easily get 3.7+ tickets per Theros boosters when you wait for the 2nd or 3rd set to come out. If Theros for some reason drops to 3.0 - 3.2 i'd buy a bunch to resell later.
However this is all predicated on the fact that they are keeping the same payout structure that they've used in the past. It seems unlikely they'd try to balance the pack payouts since they're making this major change to the release events. The more changes they make the harder it is for them to figure out which change caused a specific outcome to happen.
This is a positive change for bad players, but a negative change for good players. And it's probably a slight negative change for average players since they can't rejoin for free whenever they 3-1 the event. I think the popularity of the events might not change as much. Though I'm basing this partly on new players filling the gap of the people who will no longer play in these queues.
The reduced payout means there will be less boosters in the system. Which means booster prices will stay higher than normal. They probably won't drop down to 3 tix, like Gatecrash and M14. I guess this is a pretty good outcome since you don't have to hold your booster winnings for 2-3 months to try to get 3.5+ tickets. However, like I said in original post, there will likely be a shortage of Theros boosters during the 2nd and 3rd sets, even more so now that they are reducing the supply.
It looks like you can easily get 3.7+ tickets per Theros boosters when you wait for the 2nd or 3rd set to come out. If Theros for some reason drops to 3.0 - 3.2 i'd buy a bunch to resell later.
However this is all predicated on the fact that they are keeping the same payout structure that they've used in the past. It seems unlikely they'd try to balance the pack payouts since they're making this major change to the release events. The more changes they make the harder it is for them to figure out which change caused a specific outcome to happen.
Will the two man queues payout in Theros? Or will that continue to be the low EV M14?
I notice Hero's Downfall is totally unconditional instant speed removal that targets everything Dreadbore does, with 1 more mana but one less color. Is this going to semi-obsolete Dreadbore?
Or is the one mana savings enough to make Dreadbore not an auto-dump right now?
I notice Hero's Downfall is totally unconditional instant speed removal that targets everything Dreadbore does, with 1 more mana but one less color. Is this going to semi-obsolete Dreadbore?
Or is the one mana savings enough to make Dreadbore not an auto-dump right now?
Consider the difference between Murder and Doomblade. Downfall is not always better but in general would be. I doubt it will have a huge impact on dreadbore's price, but it will have some.
The double black in hero's downfall is also not irrelevant, especially if people still try to play a jund or BWR deck. It certainly hurts its chances though.
I notice Hero's Downfall is totally unconditional instant speed removal that targets everything Dreadbore does, with 1 more mana but one less color. Is this going to semi-obsolete Dreadbore?
Or is the one mana savings enough to make Dreadbore not an auto-dump right now?
It will cripple Dreadbore's price.
Not because it's necessarily better or worse, but because it competes for the same deck slot.
Look at Blood Baron of Vizkopa and Obzedat. Both do roughly the same thing and compete for space in decks. Neither is clearly 'better' than the other, but as a result of both existing, demand on each one drops. Some people that would otherwise have purchased Obzedat instead choose to run Blood Baron, pushing down Obzedat's price.
A similar thing happened with Bonfire of the Damned. If Mizzium Mortars had not existed, Bonfire would have seen even more play than it did, pushing its price higher and higher than even the high prices it got to. In fact had Mortars not been printed, I'm certain Bonfire and not Lilliana would have been the highest priced card in ISD block on MTGO.
Not because it's necessarily better or worse, but because it competes for the same deck slot.
Look at Blood Baron of Vizkopa and Obzedat. Both do roughly the same thing and compete for space in decks. Neither is clearly 'better' than the other, but as a result of both existing, demand on each one drops. Some people that would otherwise have purchased Obzedat instead choose to run Blood Baron, pushing down Obzedat's price.
A similar thing happened with Bonfire of the Damned. If Mizzium Mortars had not existed, Bonfire would have seen even more play than it did, pushing its price higher and higher than even the high prices it got to. In fact had Mortars not been printed, I'm certain Bonfire and not Lilliana would have been the highest priced card in ISD block on MTGO.
That's disappointing, but makes sense. I bought a playset in case I may want to use them later, but since I'm not actively playing with them, I suppose I should sell.
Also, what do you guys think of Boros Reckoner when Theros comes in? Anger of the Gods seems really strong against it and any deck that would play it, but I claim no real knowledge of how the new metagame will shape up.
Also, what do you guys think of Boros Reckoner when Theros comes in? Anger of the Gods seems really strong against it and any deck that would play it, but I claim no real knowledge of how the new metagame will shape up.
Reckoner can't be dealt with without a trade usually. You mortars it, you either take 4 or you lose an equally strong creature. Same with anger of the gods. The card can trade up with 5/6 drops. Your best bet is to go even on mana with a doom blade or hero's downfall.
It has 15 ticket potential IMO based on the Pro Tour but it seems an extremely safe bet to go up at least a bit. It works in red or white devotion based aggro, naya, BWR mythic and others. It seems like with a few homes it will be hard to not see it increase.
Plus not sure what decks would player anger of the gods outside of Grixis control. I think grixis will end up a bit worse then Esper overall but its hard to say. Grixis does have slaughter games against Elspeth or other control decks which is strong and can't be ignored.
The thing about boros reckoner is that you should have bought it at 5 tickets, and not now at 6.5.
It looks like GW and mono red aggro are going to be pretty decent in new standard. So Jace AoT's +1 ability will be pretty good. I've seen quite a few lists from pros have Jace AoT in the main deck.
I guess i'm not going to dump my jaces like I thought, and reckoner has potential to go up, but I wouldn't buy now unless you know channelfireball or starcity is rocking 4 in their deck for the PT.
The thing about boros reckoner is that you should have bought it at 5 tickets, and not now at 6.5.
It looks like GW and mono red aggro are going to be pretty decent in new standard. So Jace AoT's +1 ability will be pretty good. I've seen quite a few lists from pros have Jace AoT in the main deck.
I guess i'm not going to dump my jaces like I thought, and reckoner has potential to go up, but I wouldn't buy now unless you know channelfireball or starcity is rocking 4 in their deck for the PT.
Jace seems like it will finally get to shine, and pros love blue. I think the big problem with blue is just nothing at 1/2 mana -luckily azorius charm,magma jet and black spells can help fill that void.
Jace seems like it will finally get to shine, and pros love blue. I think the big problem with blue is just nothing at 1/2 mana -luckily azorius charm,magma jet and black spells can help fill that void.
omenspeaker? seems decent vs mono red. tidebinder mage could get there if you're trying to do anything with devotion.
Reckoner can't be dealt with without a trade usually. You mortars it, you either take 4 or you lose an equally strong creature. Same with anger of the gods. The card can trade up with 5/6 drops. Your best bet is to go even on mana with a doom blade or hero's downfall.
It has 15 ticket potential IMO based on the Pro Tour but it seems an extremely safe bet to go up at least a bit. It works in red or white devotion based aggro, naya, BWR mythic and others. It seems like with a few homes it will be hard to not see it increase.
Plus not sure what decks would player anger of the gods outside of Grixis control. I think grixis will end up a bit worse then Esper overall but its hard to say. Grixis does have slaughter games against Elspeth or other control decks which is strong and can't be ignored.
That's good to know. I drafted a pair, and I guess I'll just hold on to them for a while. I just saw 3 damage sweeper for 3 in Theros and thought that was efficiently hating them out, but I suppose Pyroclasm wasn't always the death knell of weenie decks.
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I wanted to discuss Theros block booster prices. I think there's potential to make some tickets if they continue to have skewed payouts. I'd like to figure this out ahead of time.
We know the draft format is the classic one, like SOM block, it's a big set, small set, small set.
It'll be drafted
1) Theros, Theros, Theros
2) Born, Theros, Theros
3) Journey, Born, Theros
The first scenario will have Theros pay out in all formats. Just like how everything pays out in m14. So assuming Theros is a "good" draft format, booster prices will be around 3.0-3.8 during this time.
The second scenario is where i'm at a loss for the pay outs. I don't remember how MBS/SOM/SOM and DKA/ISD/ISD events paid out. I believe the payouts will be close to 50% Theros/50% Born. That means there will be a shortage of Theros boosters. You need a 2 Theros, 1 Born ratio to enter the draft, but all events pay out in a near 1:1 ratio. Given that info, Theros boosters should increase to 3.5-4.0 and Born boosters should drop to 2.0-3.0 during this time.
The 3rd scenario will pay out just like how DGR did. There will be an excess supply of Journey boosters. Journey will be worth 1.9-2.5, Born will be worth 3.0-3.5 and Theros will be worth 3.5-4.0 during this time.
With that said. If you are a contructed player you should try to not sell your Theros boosters for less than 3.7 as they'll probably hit 3.7 when the third set comes out.
If you want to invest in boosters, you should try to get Theros at 3.0-3.2 and Born at 2.0-2.5. You're probably screwed with Journey boosters, but we'll see what happens to DGM boosters as time goes on.
What do you guys think? Are these good assumptions? Do you think my price ranges are accurate?
Keep in mind that card prices for the third set will likely be very high too, and Theros card prices will crash hard when the second set hits.
That is nothing to speculate. IF it goes up to 1 tix from .09, then we would talk about that.
I think you don't quite understand the meaning of 'speculate' - whether merciless eviction will CONTINUE to rise in the future, not the already significant 300% (but small potatoes in absolute numbers) that it has already jumped.
I think it's possible merciless will go up to a .5-1 ticket rarre.
I'm also looking at Domri to jump up a few points, with R/(g) and naya already a significant force in standard and block for a while, and now a new RG creature-based planeswalker to complement him.
Jumping from .09 to .27 doesn't actually mean anything. It can easily jump back to .09 again at anytime. Also, the cardbot source is one of the worst sources to look up for a card's value. That is not speculating but that is over exaggerating.
I can guarantee you that WotC would not print a 5 card mythic cycle in each set of the block unless they expected it to make a splash in Constructed.
Not necessarily every card, but some of them will. Look at Trostani, Aurelia, Zegana and co - a 10 card mythic cycle spread thoughout a block that wasn't really aimed at tourney players but had some cards pushed far enough that they saw play.
The rest it's hard to say but id be shocked if each one didn't see at least some play. Maybe Green the least, Blue the most.
heliod is worse than a planeswalker
The set looks to be producing a couple of good staple rares.
I expect Chained to the Rocks and Hero's Downfall to be a thing, although probably not as 4 ofs. Soldier of the Pantheon might turn out to be a 4 of. Polyukranos I could see taking over standard but I expect his price to start very high. I'm thinking of investing in WR staples from RTR now as well as I expect this deck to do pretty well.
This is a positive change for bad players, but a negative change for good players. And it's probably a slight negative change for average players since they can't rejoin for free whenever they 3-1 the event. I think the popularity of the events might not change as much. Though I'm basing this partly on new players filling the gap of the people who will no longer play in these queues.
The reduced payout means there will be less boosters in the system. Which means booster prices will stay higher than normal. They probably won't drop down to 3 tix, like Gatecrash and M14. I guess this is a pretty good outcome since you don't have to hold your booster winnings for 2-3 months to try to get 3.5+ tickets. However, like I said in original post, there will likely be a shortage of Theros boosters during the 2nd and 3rd sets, even more so now that they are reducing the supply.
It looks like you can easily get 3.7+ tickets per Theros boosters when you wait for the 2nd or 3rd set to come out. If Theros for some reason drops to 3.0 - 3.2 i'd buy a bunch to resell later.
However this is all predicated on the fact that they are keeping the same payout structure that they've used in the past. It seems unlikely they'd try to balance the pack payouts since they're making this major change to the release events. The more changes they make the harder it is for them to figure out which change caused a specific outcome to happen.
Will the two man queues payout in Theros? Or will that continue to be the low EV M14?
They stopped paying out in core set for momir and pauper a while ago. Pauper/Momir now pay out in the latest set.
Or is the one mana savings enough to make Dreadbore not an auto-dump right now?
Consider the difference between Murder and Doomblade. Downfall is not always better but in general would be. I doubt it will have a huge impact on dreadbore's price, but it will have some.
Theros Myth Origins Part 1 WUBRG Part 2 GRBUW Born of the Gods
Beta Client Tutorial
Momir Basic Primer
Full article list
I only have a playset, so i'm probably going to sell 3 of them.
It will cripple Dreadbore's price.
Not because it's necessarily better or worse, but because it competes for the same deck slot.
Look at Blood Baron of Vizkopa and Obzedat. Both do roughly the same thing and compete for space in decks. Neither is clearly 'better' than the other, but as a result of both existing, demand on each one drops. Some people that would otherwise have purchased Obzedat instead choose to run Blood Baron, pushing down Obzedat's price.
A similar thing happened with Bonfire of the Damned. If Mizzium Mortars had not existed, Bonfire would have seen even more play than it did, pushing its price higher and higher than even the high prices it got to. In fact had Mortars not been printed, I'm certain Bonfire and not Lilliana would have been the highest priced card in ISD block on MTGO.
That's disappointing, but makes sense. I bought a playset in case I may want to use them later, but since I'm not actively playing with them, I suppose I should sell.
Reckoner can't be dealt with without a trade usually. You mortars it, you either take 4 or you lose an equally strong creature. Same with anger of the gods. The card can trade up with 5/6 drops. Your best bet is to go even on mana with a doom blade or hero's downfall.
It has 15 ticket potential IMO based on the Pro Tour but it seems an extremely safe bet to go up at least a bit. It works in red or white devotion based aggro, naya, BWR mythic and others. It seems like with a few homes it will be hard to not see it increase.
Plus not sure what decks would player anger of the gods outside of Grixis control. I think grixis will end up a bit worse then Esper overall but its hard to say. Grixis does have slaughter games against Elspeth or other control decks which is strong and can't be ignored.
It looks like GW and mono red aggro are going to be pretty decent in new standard. So Jace AoT's +1 ability will be pretty good. I've seen quite a few lists from pros have Jace AoT in the main deck.
I guess i'm not going to dump my jaces like I thought, and reckoner has potential to go up, but I wouldn't buy now unless you know channelfireball or starcity is rocking 4 in their deck for the PT.
Jace seems like it will finally get to shine, and pros love blue. I think the big problem with blue is just nothing at 1/2 mana -luckily azorius charm,magma jet and black spells can help fill that void.
omenspeaker? seems decent vs mono red. tidebinder mage could get there if you're trying to do anything with devotion.
That's good to know. I drafted a pair, and I guess I'll just hold on to them for a while. I just saw 3 damage sweeper for 3 in Theros and thought that was efficiently hating them out, but I suppose Pyroclasm wasn't always the death knell of weenie decks.