Xenagos will never see as much play as thassa and she topped out at 15$. I would say xenagos will eventually stabilize somewhere in between purphoros and thassa. 9-11$ most likely.
Thassa wasn't in a garbage set. There are only a handful of good cards in BNG, which will concentrate the value in the few cards worth opening and drive prices higher. It's why Voice of Resurgence and Domri Rade each commanded higher prices than Jace, Architect of Thought (pre-Duel Deck), despite the fact that Jace showed up far more often in tournaments.
That's the key thing that a lot of people forget. When you have a set that is relatively poor for value or popularity (like this set could likely end up), the good cards are often propped up higher than they normally would if they were in a more popular set (like theros for example which was a really hot set out of the gates). That said, its entirely possible it could easily end up down in the $10 or less range if it isn't able to keep up a decent level of popularity/play. For now at least it appears Brimaz is the one that people are going after the most (it is a nice card, gotta say).
This is why I picked up at a set of Brimaz at 25 each and was happy to- he might dip below that for a time, but he'll be 40+ next year.
Even if a card is from a bad set, it actually has to be GOOD (or trick everybody into thinking it's good) to be $40. Why would Brimaz be played? Is it a 4-of in decks it goes in? Does it go into multiple competitive decks? Is it viable in multiple formats? (I'm actually asking these questions, non-rhetorically.) It looks like garbage to me. Blood Baron of Vizkopa is a powerful mythic from a crap set (not a legend, but comparable in other respects) and it has been out for almost a year. It's $15. Or are you saying Brimaz is akin to Voice of Resurgence? That card IS a 4-of, and DOES go in multiple decks, and IS played in multiple formats.... and it's under $30. Brimaz just isn't Voice. I think you'll be lucky to hang onto your $25 investment over the next few years.
I am looking to pick up a play set of Brimaz, but my gut says it will fall more. The legendary Status does not help as he has vigilance thus not worth playing a second after attacking. Anyone think he will continue to fall in price?
Pain Seer is not going anywhere as it is outclassed in Modern. Standard play is lacking when it's to slow to draw a card that damages you. Read the Bones is better for digging and card draw.
Bad investment, but getting a play set for your collection seems ok if you MUST have it.
Even if a card is from a bad set, it actually has to be GOOD (or trick everybody into thinking it's good) to be $40. Why would Brimaz be played? Is it a 4-of in decks it goes in? Does it go into multiple competitive decks? Is it viable in multiple formats? (I'm actually asking these questions, non-rhetorically.) It looks like garbage to me. Blood Baron of Vizkopa is a powerful mythic from a crap set (not a legend, but comparable in other respects) and it has been out for almost a year. It's $15. Or are you saying Brimaz is akin to Voice of Resurgence? That card IS a 4-of, and DOES go in multiple decks, and IS played in multiple formats.... and it's under $30. Brimaz just isn't Voice. I think you'll be lucky to hang onto your $25 investment over the next few years.
Fair points.
Voice of Resurgence is a double creature that stops your opponent playing counter magic against you profitably.
Blood Baron of Vizkopa is almost immune to most of the removal in the format and is almost impossible to race if you can't block with a creature of the right color.
Brimaz, King of Oreskos dies outright to almost all removal (Lightning Bolt being one of the few exceptions) and has to swing to generate cat tokens. A lot of the time there is a 4/4 waiting for him and if not there will be the very next turn.
In modern you can cast him on turn 2 but what good does it do you? Can you outrace a pod combo? He's a combat only creature with no special tricks.
Restoration Angel is a better card. She might cost 1 more but she is 1 less white and has flash, flying and the blink ability. Both are 3/4.
I hate to say it but Born of the Gods has been purposefully screwed for the purposes of commander.
Karametra, Astral Cornucopia, Heroes' Podium, Plea for Guidance. They're all purely commander cards. It does nothing for the value of the set. It doesn't help modern by way of reprints. It actually turns people off sales. I know I've bought 2 boosters and have no desire to ever buy another. Customers need to vote with their wallets.
At this point I'm over the Thoughtseize reprint because I understand it's important to keep reprinting modern playable cards not only to keep the value of those cards down but to make sure new sets have some non-rotating value in them.
Brimaz is a strong card. Restoration Angel is as well. One mana is a huge difference. Brimaz will make his mark at some point, but he's a bit too high right now.
I think Brimaz will have trouble staying about $30 because that is hard for cards to do nowadays. But I think this card has possibilities in modern. Hero of Bladehold is being used in a B/W token deck and this is one mana cheaper. On turn 2 after noble hierarch is a huge play forcing a response, otherwise it is an army in a can and you can use the rest of your cards for disruption/protection.
And dying to removal is a terrible argument. Almost everything dies to Path to Exile. What is more important is that it doesn't die to lightning bolt or lightning helix. It can take down a 4/4 on defense.
But your comparison are pretty bad. Restoration angel was a rare is a very popular set. This is a mythic in a weak set. Blood Baron is a 5 drop used as a 2 of occasionally in top deck and a few fringe decks. It is also multicolor, this is huge. And don't forget price memory. $40 standard cards are usually that way early and stay that way.
I think Brimaz will trend down close to $20 at the set gets opened more but will jump to 30-40 after Core15 launches and stay that way until rotation.
IMHO what will have the biggest impact on prices is the demand for Kiora, Xenogos, courser and the scrylands. They are adding a huge amount of value to the set right now. For Dragonmaze you had Blood Baron, Ral Zarek and a couple 2 dollar rares.
I was trying to show that Born of the Gods is a worse set than Dragon's Maze.
People just haven't accepted it yet. They're still in the "shiny new cards" phase.
They are pretty close, but I'm inclined to agree -Dragon's maze has a fairly high concentration of casual playables. That's not to say BNG doesn't have quite a few causal playables, it just looks to have less. BNG does seem to have more potential in non-standard constructed than DGM could ever hope to have, but I still feel like it is a worse set long term.
I've been keeping an eye on Block Constructed results from MTGO, and there's definitely a handful of cards that are seeing play in that format that are in the sub-$3 range at the moment. I doubt they'll spike in the short term, and some (like Gild) are likely seeing play mostly because of limited options available in block, but it could be a good indicator of potential gainers down the road.
I've been keeping an eye on Block Constructed results from MTGO, and there's definitely a handful of cards that are seeing play in that format that are in the sub-$3 range at the moment. I doubt they'll spike in the short term, and some (like Gild) are likely seeing play mostly because of limited options available in block, but it could be a good indicator of potential gainers down the road.
I suspect these two are mostly seeing play due to the limited card pool of Block: Gild Astral Cornucopia
While I know MTGO has a decent block constructed demand, is there really much demand in paper magic for block constructed? I'm just a bit curious as it seems as though paper block constructed never really seems to get brought up much anymore (all the discussion usually involves mtgo). I guess I'm just not sure how much influence block constructed could really have on the value/potential value of the cards, barring of course the potential for post-rotation use.
To my knowledge paper block does not effect prices much (and certainly not nearly as much as it does in MTGO). People just look to block for potential post rotation stars as you mentioned... and since MTGO is a more vibrant block community it is the go to for such analysis. To me rmstephens post was of this nature (looking at block constructed for cards that could be good come rotation).
I think the reason why no one talks about block constructed in paper is because it's only really played on the pro tour. I haven't seen a block constructed tournament at a GP or lower on the tournament totem pole in a very very long time.
Yeah, I was really just looking at it as a possible indicator of what next fall's metagame might look like. Obviously it isn't guaranteed that the best deck in Block will translate over to dominating Standard (just look at GW from RTR block), but it's another datapoint to consider.
Will do a full update Sunday or so, but for now I've repriced the top cards. Here's what I noticed.
Scryland is up to $9. Some well known eBay sellers are asking $45 plus shipping for playsets. Hot!
Karametra and the Phoenix are below $3 now and look like they're falling off the tally.
Kiora and Courser are holding value right now.
Brimaz and Xenagos lost 10% of their value in the past week. Hundreds of copies of Brimaz are sitting unsold on eBay despite the price drop. I think it's coming down to $20 or so in the next month.
This is why I picked up at a set of Brimaz at 25 each and was happy to- he might dip below that for a time, but he'll be 40+ next year.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Blood Baron of Vizkopa is a powerful mythic from a crap set (not a legend, but comparable in other respects) and it has been out for almost a year. It's $15. Or are you saying Brimaz is akin to Voice of Resurgence? That card IS a 4-of, and DOES go in multiple decks, and IS played in multiple formats.... and it's under $30. Brimaz just isn't Voice. I think you'll be lucky to hang onto your $25 investment over the next few years.
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Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Bad investment, but getting a play set for your collection seems ok if you MUST have it.
Multiplayer Decks- Memnarch - Animar, Soul of Elements - Zur, the Enchanter - Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Food Chain Tazri - Teysa Karlov
Modern BUMill and Bant Spirits.
Thank you Xenphire for the signature!
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Fair points.
Voice of Resurgence is a double creature that stops your opponent playing counter magic against you profitably.
Blood Baron of Vizkopa is almost immune to most of the removal in the format and is almost impossible to race if you can't block with a creature of the right color.
Brimaz, King of Oreskos dies outright to almost all removal (Lightning Bolt being one of the few exceptions) and has to swing to generate cat tokens. A lot of the time there is a 4/4 waiting for him and if not there will be the very next turn.
In modern you can cast him on turn 2 but what good does it do you? Can you outrace a pod combo? He's a combat only creature with no special tricks.
Restoration Angel is a better card. She might cost 1 more but she is 1 less white and has flash, flying and the blink ability. Both are 3/4.
I hate to say it but Born of the Gods has been purposefully screwed for the purposes of commander.
Karametra, Astral Cornucopia, Heroes' Podium, Plea for Guidance. They're all purely commander cards. It does nothing for the value of the set. It doesn't help modern by way of reprints. It actually turns people off sales. I know I've bought 2 boosters and have no desire to ever buy another. Customers need to vote with their wallets.
At this point I'm over the Thoughtseize reprint because I understand it's important to keep reprinting modern playable cards not only to keep the value of those cards down but to make sure new sets have some non-rotating value in them.
Cheers
And dying to removal is a terrible argument. Almost everything dies to Path to Exile. What is more important is that it doesn't die to lightning bolt or lightning helix. It can take down a 4/4 on defense.
But your comparison are pretty bad. Restoration angel was a rare is a very popular set. This is a mythic in a weak set. Blood Baron is a 5 drop used as a 2 of occasionally in top deck and a few fringe decks. It is also multicolor, this is huge. And don't forget price memory. $40 standard cards are usually that way early and stay that way.
I think Brimaz will trend down close to $20 at the set gets opened more but will jump to 30-40 after Core15 launches and stay that way until rotation.
IMHO what will have the biggest impact on prices is the demand for Kiora, Xenogos, courser and the scrylands. They are adding a huge amount of value to the set right now. For Dragonmaze you had Blood Baron, Ral Zarek and a couple 2 dollar rares.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
People just haven't accepted it yet. They're still in the "shiny new cards" phase.
They are pretty close, but I'm inclined to agree -Dragon's maze has a fairly high concentration of casual playables. That's not to say BNG doesn't have quite a few causal playables, it just looks to have less. BNG does seem to have more potential in non-standard constructed than DGM could ever hope to have, but I still feel like it is a worse set long term.
All your Ice Age Foil Basics are belong to us
If you have any foil 7ED Island #334 I am very interested!
BNG cards (not currently on the tally) that are seeing a fair bit of play in Block Constructed:
Herald of Torment (This is also about twice the price online than in paper)
Pain Seer
Fated Retribution
Fated Conflagration
I suspect these two are mostly seeing play due to the limited card pool of Block:
Gild
Astral Cornucopia
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
While I know MTGO has a decent block constructed demand, is there really much demand in paper magic for block constructed? I'm just a bit curious as it seems as though paper block constructed never really seems to get brought up much anymore (all the discussion usually involves mtgo). I guess I'm just not sure how much influence block constructed could really have on the value/potential value of the cards, barring of course the potential for post-rotation use.
Feel free to bid on my cards here!
Scryland is up to $9. Some well known eBay sellers are asking $45 plus shipping for playsets. Hot!
Karametra and the Phoenix are below $3 now and look like they're falling off the tally.
Kiora and Courser are holding value right now.
Brimaz and Xenagos lost 10% of their value in the past week. Hundreds of copies of Brimaz are sitting unsold on eBay despite the price drop. I think it's coming down to $20 or so in the next month.
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