I agree with SM on this. People don't want their goyfs to decrease in value so they try and perpetuate myth and espouse economic theory based on conjecture and speculation. The MM print of goyf was larger than the original, MM2 will probably double that amount. Goyfs price should drop significantly.
The perpetuated myth here is that Goyf's price will drop significantly. It didn't happen the last time (the MM print run was too limited), and without a reliable source, we have no reason to believe that it will happen this time.
There are only two options:
1) Provide a reliable source for your claim
2) Admit that you're wearing a tinfoil hat, and that you have no idea what you're talking about
Playing millions of cards every turn... Slowly and systematically obliterating any chance my opponent has of winning... Clicking the multitude of locking mechanisms into place... Not even trying to win myself until turn 10+ once I have nigh absolute control... Watching my opponent desperately trying to navigate the labyrinthine prison that I've constructed... Seeing the light of hope fade and ultimately extinguished in an excruciatingly slow manner... THAT'S fun Magic.
We have 2-3 users that are dramatically making this thread incomprehensible and non-productive for anyone else to possibly join in the discussion. This needs to change.
Every time I see [ktkenshinx] post in here, I get the impression of a stern dad walking in on a bunch of kids trying to do something dumb and just shaking his head in disappointment.
Near Mint: The same as Slightly Played, but we threw some Altoids in the box we stored it in to cover up the scent of dead mice. Slightly Played: The base condition for all MTG cards. This card looks OK, but there’s one minor annoying ding in it that will always irritate and distract you whenever you draw it. Moderately Played: This card looks like it survived the Tet Offensive tucked inside the waistband of GI underwear. It may smell like it, too. Heavily Played: This card looks like the remains of Mohammed Atta’s passport after 9/11. It may be playable if you double-sleeve it to stop the chunks from falling out. The condition formerly known as "Washing Machine Grade" Damaged: This card is the unfortunate victim of a Mirrorweave/March of the Machines/Chaos Confetti/Mindslaver combo.
[M]aking counterfeit cards is the absolute height of dishonesty. Ask yourself this question: Since most people...are totally cool with the use of proxies...what purpose do [high] quality counterfeit cards serve?
Tarmogoyf is not going to decrease in price. In reality, it'll actually explode in value again because MM2 will have the same "pent-up demand" that MM1 had.
Even if MM2 will have a higher print run, it won't matter in the long run. The demand for Magic keeps skyrocketing year after year and Wizards has been reacting too slowly to this due to their lengthy development cycles.
Why would the price go up? What demand? if goyf is available now for 180 why would someone pay more after mm2? MM set a precedent, wotc backed up their claims, and player came to modern with confidence. MM2 will not have the same effect sorry boys.
How can this card not drop? The signs are all there. Who is to say they won't keep putting Goyf in future MM releases. Before you point out how dumb that would be, just remember that so far we have 2 MM releases and Goyf is in both of them. This is a fact that CANNOT be refuted. We can revisit this when MM2017 is spoiled
Why would the price go up? What demand? if goyf is available now for 180 why would someone pay more after mm2? MM set a precedent, wotc backed up their claims, and player came to modern with confidence. MM2 will not have the same effect sorry boys.
I honestly don't expect the price to go up, at least certainly not immediately. Potential increased demand should keep a card like goyf from dropping too much. Whether than means going from $180 down to $150 or even $125 simply depends on the added supply vs. the amount of pent up demand of people willing to buy the card but at a lower than current price. Initially the card will drop, that's simply inevitable, but long-term, its hard to say, but even then you are talking years out just like we had here being 2 years out from the last MM release. I suspect we could see it drop down a decent amount from its current price, only to stabilize and rise back up again once the MM2 box supply runs out and supply stabilizes again. Inevitably though we cannot estimate, realistically where it might go until we get true and confirmable conformation as to the size of the print run compared to the last MM set. The trouble as well, of course is with the msrp rising to $9.99/pack or $239.76 per box (24 packs/box) and with goyf still being a mythic in a large set, you are still only getting one goyf in every 120 packs or approx. 1 in 5 boxes. So overall demand for MM2 also hinges a good bit on the rest of the contents of the set being able to justify the increase in pack/box price.
How can this card not drop? The signs are all there. Who is to say they won't keep putting Goyf in future MM releases. Before you point out how dumb that would be, just remember that so far we have 2 MM releases and Goyf is in both of them. This is a fact that CANNOT be refuted. We can revisit this when MM2017 is spoiled
Seriously. What happened after MM1 was an anomaly due to a culmination of various factors. I cannot understand why people want 200$ goyfs.
I honestly feel like Tarmogoyf will go down in price and stick around mid to low one hundreds. The fact that with a combined total of less than one hundred copies available between the two versions of Tarmogoyf on TCG shows that people still want/need Tarmogoyf. I know that after this newest set hits, I'm going to be picking up my four. Eight hundred is ridiculous for a reprint ready card play set. Something like four hundred is still pushing it, but that is my going price for a play set.
I know that after this newest set hits, I'm going to be picking up my four.
That's just it, though. You and a ton of other people are having that exact same thought. It creates a huge amount of demand, and given that MM2 is a limited print run, that demand can and almost certainly will outstrip price over time, especially with all the people who'll be treating it as an investment.
That's not to say it won't go down, at least in the short run, but it won't halve in price or anything as a result of this.
MSRP is just the pack price x the number of packs. And since this is a limited print product, its a whole lot less likely it will be able to be found at less than MSRP. In fact in many cases, I recall MM1 going for greater than MSRP due to how limited it was vs the overwhelming demand. The supply on this will be greater, so hopefully should avoid the crazy markups, but boxes at full MSRP I would still expect to be right around the norm.
I know that after this newest set hits, I'm going to be picking up my four.
That's just it, though. You and a ton of other people are having that exact same thought. It creates a huge amount of demand, and given that MM2 is a limited print run, that demand can and almost certainly will outstrip price over time, especially with all the people who'll be treating it as an investment.
That's not to say it won't go down, at least in the short run, but it won't halve in price or anything as a result of this.
Well then I just won't be picking up Goyf and wait around again lol.
MM1 dropped Goyf by around $40-$50. MM2 has a 5x larger print run, likely that the price will drop to $100 or so.
According to MTG Stocks, FUT Tarmogoyf's TCG mid price (http://www.mtgstocks.com/cards/3494) dropped less than $8 between it's peak in February 2013 to June 19th, 2013, and then it's price took off again. I don't remember Tarmo ever dropping $40-$50 from MM1.
I keep seeing unsubstantiated claims that the print run is going to be 4x MM1, and now it's going to be 5x larger? This is like a game of telephone, how soon before people start claiming print runs of 10x and 20x MM1? Seriously?
I would love for people to be right on all counts about his price, but right now, I'm just not seeing it.
-------------
Back on topic, no one's mentioned Pendelhaven jumping from $6 to $10 (Timeshifted) and $18 (Legends) in the last month?
Goyf was under $100 from many months right after MM1. Specs who bought in around ~$90 pushed the price quickly to $130 then yeah up and up it's went since.
It's an instant speed 5/5 trampler for 4. Wtf do you people want seriously? It has applications in populate/ above the curve beats decks, or in Bant control/ flash. I seriously think anyone mad at this card for any reason other than losing an attacker to instant speed wurm, should go home and make their own awesome card game and leave the rest of us alone.
Seriously, can the mods not do something about the people saying things only to further their own goals? These Gainer threadS are becoMing a bit of a joke, and there are obvious and repeat offenders.
Goyf was under $100 from many months right after MM1. Specs who bought in around ~$90 pushed the price quickly to $130 then yeah up and up it's went since.
Yup, I remember this as well. Lasted for about 3 months I'd say. Graphs don't really show it, since people just see the average and nothing else.
One of the concerns people seem to have is that MM will increase the interest in modern enough to overcome the new supply. That's sort of what happened last time, but I feel it's more of a self-fulfilling prophecy rather than anything else, since people are just stuck on the $$$ aspect of the set.
Seriously, can the mods not do something about the people saying things only to further their own goals? These Gainer threadS are becoMing a bit of a joke, and there are obvious and repeat offenders.
So you would prefer complete silence, which is what you've contributed to these threads so far? Who has an agenda, tin foil hat guy? Why don't you point them out to us. Who is manipulating us and sitting on mounds of cash and ALL teh magics?
CFB also doesn't know. They are also shooting in the dark. They can also be very, very, very wrong. What's wrong with exploring the potential impact of runs of X size? It's not like this is the first time Goyf is being reprinted - we have prior data to base guesses on.
The true fact of the matter is that we are all at Wizard's mercy. I can sit here and say you're right, Goyf will be ~150 if MM has X size print run and then Wizards can make Goyf the buy a box promo for M16. You know? It's all guesses until Wizards does something.
Guys,
While we all appreciate the speculation on Goyf, lets curb the unfounded claims on the MM2 print runs. It doesn't add anything significant to the "MHG Thread" and just spams up the boards. Thanks!
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The perpetuated myth here is that Goyf's price will drop significantly. It didn't happen the last time (the MM print run was too limited), and without a reliable source, we have no reason to believe that it will happen this time.
There are only two options:
1) Provide a reliable source for your claim
2) Admit that you're wearing a tinfoil hat, and that you have no idea what you're talking about
Honestly, I'm fine with either one.
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Even if MM2 will have a higher print run, it won't matter in the long run. The demand for Magic keeps skyrocketing year after year and Wizards has been reacting too slowly to this due to their lengthy development cycles.
How can this card not drop? The signs are all there. Who is to say they won't keep putting Goyf in future MM releases. Before you point out how dumb that would be, just remember that so far we have 2 MM releases and Goyf is in both of them. This is a fact that CANNOT be refuted. We can revisit this when MM2017 is spoiled
I honestly don't expect the price to go up, at least certainly not immediately. Potential increased demand should keep a card like goyf from dropping too much. Whether than means going from $180 down to $150 or even $125 simply depends on the added supply vs. the amount of pent up demand of people willing to buy the card but at a lower than current price. Initially the card will drop, that's simply inevitable, but long-term, its hard to say, but even then you are talking years out just like we had here being 2 years out from the last MM release. I suspect we could see it drop down a decent amount from its current price, only to stabilize and rise back up again once the MM2 box supply runs out and supply stabilizes again. Inevitably though we cannot estimate, realistically where it might go until we get true and confirmable conformation as to the size of the print run compared to the last MM set. The trouble as well, of course is with the msrp rising to $9.99/pack or $239.76 per box (24 packs/box) and with goyf still being a mythic in a large set, you are still only getting one goyf in every 120 packs or approx. 1 in 5 boxes. So overall demand for MM2 also hinges a good bit on the rest of the contents of the set being able to justify the increase in pack/box price.
Seriously. What happened after MM1 was an anomaly due to a culmination of various factors. I cannot understand why people want 200$ goyfs.
I thought it was cheaper by the box?
That's just it, though. You and a ton of other people are having that exact same thought. It creates a huge amount of demand, and given that MM2 is a limited print run, that demand can and almost certainly will outstrip price over time, especially with all the people who'll be treating it as an investment.
That's not to say it won't go down, at least in the short run, but it won't halve in price or anything as a result of this.
MSRP is just the pack price x the number of packs. And since this is a limited print product, its a whole lot less likely it will be able to be found at less than MSRP. In fact in many cases, I recall MM1 going for greater than MSRP due to how limited it was vs the overwhelming demand. The supply on this will be greater, so hopefully should avoid the crazy markups, but boxes at full MSRP I would still expect to be right around the norm.
Well then I just won't be picking up Goyf and wait around again lol.
According to MTG Stocks, FUT Tarmogoyf's TCG mid price (http://www.mtgstocks.com/cards/3494) dropped less than $8 between it's peak in February 2013 to June 19th, 2013, and then it's price took off again. I don't remember Tarmo ever dropping $40-$50 from MM1.
I keep seeing unsubstantiated claims that the print run is going to be 4x MM1, and now it's going to be 5x larger? This is like a game of telephone, how soon before people start claiming print runs of 10x and 20x MM1? Seriously?
I would love for people to be right on all counts about his price, but right now, I'm just not seeing it.
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Back on topic, no one's mentioned Pendelhaven jumping from $6 to $10 (Timeshifted) and $18 (Legends) in the last month?
This is how you people sound. No one knows the numbers.
However, the experienced players are saying this:
CFB is still buying a goyf for $100 cash and $130 store credit. I trust their judgement over the pundits here. That suggests a sustained $150 price.
Yup, I remember this as well. Lasted for about 3 months I'd say. Graphs don't really show it, since people just see the average and nothing else.
One of the concerns people seem to have is that MM will increase the interest in modern enough to overcome the new supply. That's sort of what happened last time, but I feel it's more of a self-fulfilling prophecy rather than anything else, since people are just stuck on the $$$ aspect of the set.
So you would prefer complete silence, which is what you've contributed to these threads so far? Who has an agenda, tin foil hat guy? Why don't you point them out to us. Who is manipulating us and sitting on mounds of cash and ALL teh magics?
The true fact of the matter is that we are all at Wizard's mercy. I can sit here and say you're right, Goyf will be ~150 if MM has X size print run and then Wizards can make Goyf the buy a box promo for M16. You know? It's all guesses until Wizards does something.
While we all appreciate the speculation on Goyf, lets curb the unfounded claims on the MM2 print runs. It doesn't add anything significant to the "MHG Thread" and just spams up the boards. Thanks!
The funniest thing about this particular signature is that by the time you realize it doesn't say anything it's too late to stop reading it....