I think it is a self fulfilling prophecy. People that have the cash to buy staples now are doing so in fear of a greater price hike. This in turn is causing key cards to be sold out everywhere which will cause a price hike. There is a ceiling the question is only how high. I think the answer is when the stores can no longer move the product.
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Current Legacy Decks
0USpiral Tide0U
UWU/W 'Miracle Top' Control UW
012 Post 0
Random Opponent: Playing against 12 Post Feels like trying to win in Yugioh with no super secret rares.
I think it's because Star City runs $5,000 Legacy Tournaments every weekend.
Starcity hosts an event, people show up wanting to play without the cards. They're forced to buy some of them because people don't have the cards they need/ they can't find the right person with the cards in the room.
Star City sells out of wastelands/staples quickly. In order to pick up more they advertise really good buy prices and charge a little more, people freak out.
'Star City is paying WHAT on X item? Man! I need to pick that up!'
People rush out to buy legacy staples expecting there to be extremely high demand, but in truth the demand is only at these events and by the people expecting there to be demand who are actually causing most of it.
You can tell this is certainly not about collectors. Players are chasing these cards in droves and cleaning up the slack at a very rapid pace.
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Out of the blackness and stench of the engulfing swamp emerged a shimmering figure. Only the splattered armor and ichor-stained sword hinted at the unfathomable evil the knight had just laid waste.
I think it is a self fulfilling prophecy. People that have the cash to buy staples now are doing so in fear of a greater price hike. This in turn is causing key cards to be sold out everywhere which will cause a price hike. There is a ceiling the question is only how high. I think the answer is when the stores can no longer move the product.
I agree. I fear it may be getting circular now. 17 cards have had their prices increased on the list since it was posted ~10 days ago. That's a signal to me that prices will likely increase, not stabalize. So what incentive is there for me to sell right now? Why not wait 6 months and see where things stand? And if people like me do wait, how will SCG get its stock?
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
I agree. I fear it may be getting circular now. 17 cards have had their prices increased on the list since it was posted ~10 days ago. That's a signal to me that prices will likely increase, not stabalize. So what incentive is there for me to sell right now? Why not wait 6 months and see where things stand? And if people like me do wait, how will SCG get its stock?
The real answer to that is that they're not trying to get your singles, because, generally, it seems like you're trying to maximize your earnings and you generally won't do that if you're selling to a store. If you notice a store is buying for more than the going rate for a card/they post competitive buy prices, you have to expect the market value of that card is going to creep up to meet that new buy value and likely surpass it/balance between the new sell price and new listed buy price. That's the complete statement for what Medina was talking about in his article earlier this week (he alluded to the first part, but didn't note the second).
I don't know if SCG is selling out as quickly as they're buying these singles or, alternately, what their game is with this, but it does help fulfill that self-fulfilling prophecy mentioned.
If you're thinking about picking your favorite style of deck and running with it, I'd suggest you do so now.
This line of thinking is only going to make the price bubble expand even faster. Not only is demand high, but when vendors start saying "buy now or else", it's clear that the demand is only going to increase from this point on.
He also says:
Well, while some are saying the market is creating a bubble, I'd like to think it's simply catching up to popular demand.
These aren't mutually exclusive concepts. Popular demand can create a bubble as easy as speculation. His former quote isn't helping the situation either.
This line of thinking is only going to make the price bubble expand even faster. Not only is demand high, but when vendors start saying "buy now or else", it's clear that the demand is only going to increase from this point on.
He also says:
These aren't mutually exclusive concepts. Popular demand can create a bubble as easy as speculation. His former quote isn't helping the situation either.
Its eithor A: businesses/people trying to create added hype for the cards out there. or B: A simple matter of fact statement that there simply isnt enough supply available on the market right now to keep up with demand and the prices are only going to rise as the supply dries up and the demand isnt dropping.
As for the bubble comments, its true, Ive commented previous in this or another one of these types of threads allready on comparisons to stock market/financial bubbles in the past, of which collectibles are hardly immune from. In this case though I think its entirely possible that while the signs may certainly point in part to a bubble, that this is simply supply drying up most everywhere and as places try to restock, the prices are rising to compensate. In its own way, the game is starting to get too popular for its own good with a playerbase that is larger than at any point in the games history, and demand through multiple tournament formats, from the most popular casual format in the history of the game in EDH, and your general casual players as well as collectors that are all vying often for many of the same cards.
That said, I personally am working to sift through the massive amount of cards I have, so that I can determine just how many of many of these cards I have, so I can work to hedge against a possible fall by selling off some of the ones I have a lot of that to me seem high. The biggest thing that could cause some of these ascents to stall out or even cause a decline would be if any of these cards that have been shooting up make an appearance in one or more of the commander decks. I for one will be watching like a hawk to see what is in the decks to see what has the potential to fall. The worry of course is that whatever of these cards arent in the decks, the added people that will use these commander decks to finally get into the format will only add to the demand of the other cards and could cause the cards to spike even higher.
As Ive said before though, eventually the prices on these cards are going to hit critical mass and the higher and higher prices will destroy the demand base for the cards and potentially for the formats they are being bought for if the cards are staples.
A very good question. I am certain that Wizards does not have a vested interest in pricing people out of Legacy and EDH. Not that they can manipulate the secondary market directly, but indirectly they can alleviate the prices/quantities with new printings on some cards. Force of Will is one of those cards, for sure. This is true of both the online and paper versions of the card - the online run is even more fractional (hence why it's 109 bucks online).
I don't think SCG is some nefarious entity trying to obliterate all competition as far as buy pricing, and selling. But, they have created an enormously profitable model and system in place to make a LOT more money. Partially this has to do with catering to demand that alright existed, especially for regular competitive Legacy tournaments. However, another part of it is the cyclical nature of what they have created with SCG Opens. They host the opens, sell the singles at the events, popularity drives the market, they increase prices, host another open - lather rinse repeat. It's convenient and probably somewhat deliberate, but it's the nature of the business.
Ben Bleiwess wrote, in a recent article, that he predicted the price of Force of Will to exceed Mana Drain by next year. If Wizards gets smart and reprints some of these cards, in new editions, then they can keep Legacy going for sure. Tarmogoyf is another card that very badly needs a new version - in fact I am quite surprised it was never issued as a Judge foil in current frame (an obvious choice, I would think, and it would be cool too!).
I don't think the bubble will burst anytime soon - Standard and MTG in general is as popular as ever and with crossover in the worlds of poker and business/finance, the value of the game intellectually has gained much more attention. Add to that the overseas and European surges in demand that are helping to drive these profits, and I think Magic is safe for at least another 3-5 years, worst case scenario of course.
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My Trade Thread | Member of House Dimir, where hopes and dreams become death and corruption. Won't you join us?
Currently playing:
Vintage - Meandeck MUD
Legacy - Death and TaxesW, Team AmericaBUG, GSZ ZooGRW, TES, JunkBGW, Blue MUDU
Extended - BantUGW
Standard - Big RedR, UB ControlBU, Eldrazi GreenG
EDH/Commander - Thrun, the Last TrollG, Gwendolyn Di CorciBUR, Venser, Shaper SavantU
Bob will go up before Jitte does, likely because Bob is never just a 1-2 of like Jitte in T1 / Legacy.
I'm not sure if EDH will impact Jitte too much, generally the swords are far stronger in that format than Jitte is. Don't get me wrong, Jitte is still a powerhouse, but the draw / recursion / untap effects of the swords (combined with the protections) make them far more viable in EDH.
Jitte is still a staple though, and it does have a large EDH demand especially for white decks running Mystic/Stonehewer Giant etc. as well as being a Legend which makes it a key card in competitve Sisay EDH.
And more and more decks are adding it to the mix, like for example Eli Kassis' second place Junk deck a few weeks ago. It's also in more sideboards from Zoo to Merfolk along with now being in every Bant tempo deck due to Mystic.
I would say buy on Bob, especially if Junk and GerryT's version of Team America continue to stay popular and successful. And, hold on Jitte - if you got them don't move them now, and if you can pick another up at 15 or less in trade then you should do so. Just my advice.
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My Trade Thread | Member of House Dimir, where hopes and dreams become death and corruption. Won't you join us?
Currently playing:
Vintage - Meandeck MUD
Legacy - Death and TaxesW, Team AmericaBUG, GSZ ZooGRW, TES, JunkBGW, Blue MUDU
Extended - BantUGW
Standard - Big RedR, UB ControlBU, Eldrazi GreenG
EDH/Commander - Thrun, the Last TrollG, Gwendolyn Di CorciBUR, Venser, Shaper SavantU
The biggest thing that could cause some of these ascents to stall out or even cause a decline would be if any of these cards that have been shooting up make an appearance in one or more of the commander decks.
Jeff, don't you think that by this summer, the number of people who will want to joing the tournaments for these Commander decks will far exceed the supply? I do. I think the Commander decks will be far more popular than Planechase or any of the other multi-player products WoTC has produced in the last couple years. Popularity of EDH should peak right about the time these things are released. I don't know the print run for these things, but I have a suspicion they'll be quite in demand. So, I don't know about dropping the prices. They'll certainly be stabalized at current levels, but dropping- especially a significant ammount- really depends on the print run. I'm dubious about it.
Jeff, don't you think that by this summer, the number of people who will want to joing the tournaments for these Commander decks will far exceed the supply? I do. I think the Commander decks will be far more popular than Planechase or any of the other multi-player products WoTC has produced in the last couple years. Popularity of EDH should peak right about the time these things are released. I don't know the print run for these things, but I have a suspicion they'll be quite in demand. So, I don't know about dropping the prices. They'll certainly be stabalized at current levels, but dropping- especially a significant ammount- really depends on the print run. I'm dubious about it.
This is a good point because I will buy some EDH precon decks for sure, and I RARELY buy any sealed products. I have a sizable collections (duals, Bazaars, P9, etc...), but I don't have enough time to play competitively. In the past month, I've been trying to trade for EDH staples so I don't have to pay an arm and a leg if I decide to paly EDH fully. Getting the EDH Precons will not only give me a deck, but I can also tweak it to my liking.
This is what throws me for a loop. SCG has plenty of legacy tourneys, in which they sell a crap-ton of cards. Where are the rest of the tourneys? If legacy is growing so fast and so quick, there should be other tourneys out there besides SCG Opens right?
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"Failing to Find" Since March 2010.
Current Capt. of Team "Ju"
I play this:
Standard:
Rotation is coming...
Modern: GGGSTOMPY
ZOO (Goyf-less)
Legacy:
Brewing
EDH:
Too many to name.
This is what throws me for a loop. SCG has plenty of legacy tourneys, in which they sell a crap-ton of cards. Where are the rest of the tourneys? If legacy is growing so fast and so quick, there should be other tourneys out there besides SCG Opens right?
I wouldn't really call it a gimmick, I always thought it looked awesome and I'd probably play it over the old one if it wasn't foil.
I don't think Confidant is in danger of rising until Junk really, really takes off. It's not impossible though. I'd finish up your playset anyway since it expands your options quite a bit.
Jeff, don't you think that by this summer, the number of people who will want to joing the tournaments for these Commander decks will far exceed the supply? I do. I think the Commander decks will be far more popular than Planechase or any of the other multi-player products WoTC has produced in the last couple years. Popularity of EDH should peak right about the time these things are released. I don't know the print run for these things, but I have a suspicion they'll be quite in demand. So, I don't know about dropping the prices. They'll certainly be stabalized at current levels, but dropping- especially a significant ammount- really depends on the print run. I'm dubious about it.
Well, I did say that I thought their ascent could stall out (ie: stop rising in price) and possibly decline a little. There is always the possibility that the reprinting of cards could cause a decline in price, especially if its artificially rare and enough of commander decks are printed to potentially significantly increase the supply. Personally I think wizards knows full well how popular these will be, and dont expect them to do anything close to a small print run of these. And, last I heard, these were supposed to be available everywhere (but its hard to say what the reality is, its still a little ways off). I personally know plenty of current EDH players that plan on buying one of each of the decks (both for the new cards, and because they like the idea of them). Many of them allready have the swords and some of the other current EDH staples, and likely would just use them for trade fodder, thus increasing the supply of the swords on the market and thus likely stabilizing the price (at the very least) for a while, and possibly even causing a near-term decline if enough people work to offload their new swords (if in the decks) in order to recoup some of the money they spent.
The fact of the matter is though, we honestly dont know what will be in the decks, so for now its just speculation. What we do know is that these are commander/EDH decks and there will only be one of each card per deck, so that in and of itself will, at the very least, limit the amount of impact that the reprintings might have, if they do happen. Personally, the largest likelihood I give for a reprint at the moment, would be Sensei's Divining Top in those commander decks. That said, however, the largest worry for me, with the commander decks, is if ANY of the new cards that have only ever been printed in these commander decks is anything remotely legacy playable, then lord help us, because those things will skyrocket to the moon due to lack of supply.
That said, however, the largest worry for me, with the commander decks, is if ANY of the new cards that have only ever been printed in these commander decks is anything remotely legacy playable, then lord help us, because those things will skyrocket to the moon due to lack of supply.
That is my biggest worry too actually. And it would also increased the price of the EDH decks themselves, and potentially turning off casual players, the targeted audience.
Starcity hosts an event, people show up wanting to play without the cards. They're forced to buy some of them because people don't have the cards they need/ they can't find the right person with the cards in the room.
Star City sells out of wastelands/staples quickly. In order to pick up more they advertise really good buy prices and charge a little more, people freak out.
'Star City is paying WHAT on X item? Man! I need to pick that up!'
People rush out to buy legacy staples expecting there to be extremely high demand, but in truth the demand is only at these events and by the people expecting there to be demand who are actually causing most of it.
You can tell this is certainly not about collectors. Players are chasing these cards in droves and cleaning up the slack at a very rapid pace.
Buy from me on TCGPlayer::Twitter::Flickr
I agree. I fear it may be getting circular now. 17 cards have had their prices increased on the list since it was posted ~10 days ago. That's a signal to me that prices will likely increase, not stabalize. So what incentive is there for me to sell right now? Why not wait 6 months and see where things stand? And if people like me do wait, how will SCG get its stock?
The real answer to that is that they're not trying to get your singles, because, generally, it seems like you're trying to maximize your earnings and you generally won't do that if you're selling to a store. If you notice a store is buying for more than the going rate for a card/they post competitive buy prices, you have to expect the market value of that card is going to creep up to meet that new buy value and likely surpass it/balance between the new sell price and new listed buy price. That's the complete statement for what Medina was talking about in his article earlier this week (he alluded to the first part, but didn't note the second).
I don't know if SCG is selling out as quickly as they're buying these singles or, alternately, what their game is with this, but it does help fulfill that self-fulfilling prophecy mentioned.
Buy from me on TCGPlayer::Twitter::Flickr
This line of thinking is only going to make the price bubble expand even faster. Not only is demand high, but when vendors start saying "buy now or else", it's clear that the demand is only going to increase from this point on.
He also says:
These aren't mutually exclusive concepts. Popular demand can create a bubble as easy as speculation. His former quote isn't helping the situation either.
Its eithor A: businesses/people trying to create added hype for the cards out there. or B: A simple matter of fact statement that there simply isnt enough supply available on the market right now to keep up with demand and the prices are only going to rise as the supply dries up and the demand isnt dropping.
As for the bubble comments, its true, Ive commented previous in this or another one of these types of threads allready on comparisons to stock market/financial bubbles in the past, of which collectibles are hardly immune from. In this case though I think its entirely possible that while the signs may certainly point in part to a bubble, that this is simply supply drying up most everywhere and as places try to restock, the prices are rising to compensate. In its own way, the game is starting to get too popular for its own good with a playerbase that is larger than at any point in the games history, and demand through multiple tournament formats, from the most popular casual format in the history of the game in EDH, and your general casual players as well as collectors that are all vying often for many of the same cards.
That said, I personally am working to sift through the massive amount of cards I have, so that I can determine just how many of many of these cards I have, so I can work to hedge against a possible fall by selling off some of the ones I have a lot of that to me seem high. The biggest thing that could cause some of these ascents to stall out or even cause a decline would be if any of these cards that have been shooting up make an appearance in one or more of the commander decks. I for one will be watching like a hawk to see what is in the decks to see what has the potential to fall. The worry of course is that whatever of these cards arent in the decks, the added people that will use these commander decks to finally get into the format will only add to the demand of the other cards and could cause the cards to spike even higher.
As Ive said before though, eventually the prices on these cards are going to hit critical mass and the higher and higher prices will destroy the demand base for the cards and potentially for the formats they are being bought for if the cards are staples.
I don't think SCG is some nefarious entity trying to obliterate all competition as far as buy pricing, and selling. But, they have created an enormously profitable model and system in place to make a LOT more money. Partially this has to do with catering to demand that alright existed, especially for regular competitive Legacy tournaments. However, another part of it is the cyclical nature of what they have created with SCG Opens. They host the opens, sell the singles at the events, popularity drives the market, they increase prices, host another open - lather rinse repeat. It's convenient and probably somewhat deliberate, but it's the nature of the business.
Ben Bleiwess wrote, in a recent article, that he predicted the price of Force of Will to exceed Mana Drain by next year. If Wizards gets smart and reprints some of these cards, in new editions, then they can keep Legacy going for sure. Tarmogoyf is another card that very badly needs a new version - in fact I am quite surprised it was never issued as a Judge foil in current frame (an obvious choice, I would think, and it would be cool too!).
I don't think the bubble will burst anytime soon - Standard and MTG in general is as popular as ever and with crossover in the worlds of poker and business/finance, the value of the game intellectually has gained much more attention. Add to that the overseas and European surges in demand that are helping to drive these profits, and I think Magic is safe for at least another 3-5 years, worst case scenario of course.
Currently playing:
Vintage - Meandeck MUD
Legacy - Death and TaxesW, Team AmericaBUG, GSZ ZooGRW, TES, JunkBGW, Blue MUDU
Extended - BantUGW
Standard - Big RedR, UB ControlBU, Eldrazi GreenG
EDH/Commander - Thrun, the Last TrollG, Gwendolyn Di CorciBUR, Venser, Shaper SavantU
Jitte is still a staple though, and it does have a large EDH demand especially for white decks running Mystic/Stonehewer Giant etc. as well as being a Legend which makes it a key card in competitve Sisay EDH.
And more and more decks are adding it to the mix, like for example Eli Kassis' second place Junk deck a few weeks ago. It's also in more sideboards from Zoo to Merfolk along with now being in every Bant tempo deck due to Mystic.
I would say buy on Bob, especially if Junk and GerryT's version of Team America continue to stay popular and successful. And, hold on Jitte - if you got them don't move them now, and if you can pick another up at 15 or less in trade then you should do so. Just my advice.
Currently playing:
Vintage - Meandeck MUD
Legacy - Death and TaxesW, Team AmericaBUG, GSZ ZooGRW, TES, JunkBGW, Blue MUDU
Extended - BantUGW
Standard - Big RedR, UB ControlBU, Eldrazi GreenG
EDH/Commander - Thrun, the Last TrollG, Gwendolyn Di CorciBUR, Venser, Shaper SavantU
Jeff, don't you think that by this summer, the number of people who will want to joing the tournaments for these Commander decks will far exceed the supply? I do. I think the Commander decks will be far more popular than Planechase or any of the other multi-player products WoTC has produced in the last couple years. Popularity of EDH should peak right about the time these things are released. I don't know the print run for these things, but I have a suspicion they'll be quite in demand. So, I don't know about dropping the prices. They'll certainly be stabalized at current levels, but dropping- especially a significant ammount- really depends on the print run. I'm dubious about it.
This is a good point because I will buy some EDH precon decks for sure, and I RARELY buy any sealed products. I have a sizable collections (duals, Bazaars, P9, etc...), but I don't have enough time to play competitively. In the past month, I've been trying to trade for EDH staples so I don't have to pay an arm and a leg if I decide to paly EDH fully. Getting the EDH Precons will not only give me a deck, but I can also tweak it to my liking.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=487991
My Sell List:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10893911#post10893911
Current Capt. of Team "Ju"
I play this:
Rotation is coming...
Modern: GGGSTOMPY
ZOO (Goyf-less)
Legacy:
Brewing
EDH:
Too many to name.
2 Grand Prix, pluse tons of local tourneys like SCG Invitiational Qualifiers like the ones listed here: http://www.starcitygames.com/pages/open_series/#invitational_qualifiers
Not to mention its huge popularity in Europe. If you haven't heard of Legacy tournies, then you haven't been paying attention.
Or I'm stuck in mid-western USA without availability to a weekend off work.
Current Capt. of Team "Ju"
I play this:
Rotation is coming...
Modern: GGGSTOMPY
ZOO (Goyf-less)
Legacy:
Brewing
EDH:
Too many to name.
that sure didn't work for sword of fire and ice
…( `\(o),,_/` ¯ : o : : : o `-, …. Beyond the hard times from now
have/want: http://www.mtgsalvation.com/trading-post/details/80-quattros-trade-thread
It also depends on the type of promo. Werent there many more Jitte's printed for that promo run than for the Swords promos?
I wouldn't really call it a gimmick, I always thought it looked awesome and I'd probably play it over the old one if it wasn't foil.
I don't think Confidant is in danger of rising until Junk really, really takes off. It's not impossible though. I'd finish up your playset anyway since it expands your options quite a bit.
Well, I did say that I thought their ascent could stall out (ie: stop rising in price) and possibly decline a little. There is always the possibility that the reprinting of cards could cause a decline in price, especially if its artificially rare and enough of commander decks are printed to potentially significantly increase the supply. Personally I think wizards knows full well how popular these will be, and dont expect them to do anything close to a small print run of these. And, last I heard, these were supposed to be available everywhere (but its hard to say what the reality is, its still a little ways off). I personally know plenty of current EDH players that plan on buying one of each of the decks (both for the new cards, and because they like the idea of them). Many of them allready have the swords and some of the other current EDH staples, and likely would just use them for trade fodder, thus increasing the supply of the swords on the market and thus likely stabilizing the price (at the very least) for a while, and possibly even causing a near-term decline if enough people work to offload their new swords (if in the decks) in order to recoup some of the money they spent.
The fact of the matter is though, we honestly dont know what will be in the decks, so for now its just speculation. What we do know is that these are commander/EDH decks and there will only be one of each card per deck, so that in and of itself will, at the very least, limit the amount of impact that the reprintings might have, if they do happen. Personally, the largest likelihood I give for a reprint at the moment, would be Sensei's Divining Top in those commander decks. That said, however, the largest worry for me, with the commander decks, is if ANY of the new cards that have only ever been printed in these commander decks is anything remotely legacy playable, then lord help us, because those things will skyrocket to the moon due to lack of supply.
That is my biggest worry too actually. And it would also increased the price of the EDH decks themselves, and potentially turning off casual players, the targeted audience.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=487991
My Sell List:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=10893911#post10893911