The fact that it's already at $14 despite huge availability (event deck printing) and the modern banning is impressive. It's another of those mistake cards like JTMS, Snapcaster, etc that practically offers reserve list price protection because it is too powerful to reprint in standard or even in a future MM set, leaving only limited releases like judge foils, gp promos, or ftv that won't significantly increase supply.
In a year or so these forums will be filled with arguments between players who want to build a stoneblade deck and insist Wizards NEEDS to reprint these right away or the format will die, and people who have theirs pointing out that you could buy a playset for less than the price of a fatpack for many years while everyone knew how good it was.
I'm operating under the assumption that Wizards would not reprint a card into standard (or put it in MM) when it is already banned in modern. While they certainly could, I don't see it happening for a million reasons.
I agree with all of your points except that I believe a modern banning logically means no MM or standard reprintings.
I think we are on the same page, yes. And I think you are spot on with Wizards not reprinting Stoneforge Mystic in a standard legal set without her getting off of the banned list first. Or at least spoil her with the announcement she is getting out on parole.
And Yomako has an excellent point with the supplemental products. Think SFM is a casual crowd favorite as well. Appearing a lot of player's Commander decks. If only as a tutor.
This is true, but if they're going to do so it would have to be relatively soon, as there seems to be an unspoken soft cap on the value of cards they'll reprint in mass market precons. FTV or Judge promo seems like the most likely route.
I wouldn't say that dumping money in SFM is the safest investment in the world today, but it seems to be heading toward a place where we're unlikely to see a reprint. Wizards clearly doesn't care much about increasing availability of legacy-only cards even when the reserve list is not a factor (Force of Will, Wasteland), and there is fairly compelling evidence that it won't be reintroduced to other formats anytime soon.
TL,DR: there are some reprint scenarios that could drive the price back down, but if you ever might want to play these at least get your play set before you regret it more.
I could see Rishadan Port climbing some more in the short run due to DnT's strength right now.
DnT is actually not that good right now and I don't think it is that popular of a deck. Definitely not in the same field as the Delver or combo decks.
I remember trading my 4 sp Ports for $100 worth of cards and then sure enough they doubled, almost tripled afterwards lol. that has happened so many times to me.
Honestly DnT picked up a lot of steam after it put two players in the top 8 of GP Strasbourg both piloting nigh identical lists who also tested the **** out of the deck together against the field. That's why it skyrocketed in value. Also, the card is very hard to find in the same vein as city of traitors honestly because it was a large set and masques wasn't popular for obvious reasons. I'd say it is in the same field as delver decks in legacy. It is for sure a deck to beat on the source and is the 7th highest ranking deck in terms of point totals for their DTB thread. May not come close to RUG Delver, but RUG delver has been the most played deck in legacy for quite a while due to how powerful it is. As for port increasing more, I don't see it happening. 70 is quite high already. That's close to polluted delta for reference and delta see's infinitely more play in comparison albeit onslaught was opened more than masques this is just to put things in perspective.
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Honestly DnT picked up a lot of steam after it put two players in the top 8 of GP Strasbourg both piloting nigh identical lists who also tested the **** out of the deck together against the field. That's why it skyrocketed in value. Also, the card is very hard to find in the same vein as city of traitors honestly because it was a large set and masques wasn't popular for obvious reasons. I'd say it is in the same field as delver decks in legacy. It is for sure a deck to beat on the source and is the 7th highest ranking deck in terms of point totals for their DTB thread. May not come close to RUG Delver, but RUG delver has been the most played deck in legacy for quite a while due to how powerful it is. As for port increasing more, I don't see it happening. 70 is quite high already. That's close to polluted delta for reference and delta see's infinitely more play in comparison albeit onslaught was opened more than masques this is just to put things in perspective.
You also have to remember that one of the best matchups for D&T decks is the RUG Delver MU. Notice most of the time when D&T wins or places real well in an event, RUG Delver and it's ilk are usually nearby in the meta.
I don't think Port goes anywhere but up. D&T and Goblins are fine choices in a field of Delver and Stoneblade, not to mention that they still represent "budget" decks in legacy terms.
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I don't think Port goes anywhere but up. D&T and Goblins are fine choices in a field of Delver and Stoneblade, not to mention that they still represent "budget" decks in legacy terms.
This. Despite needing a playset of 70$ lands, these decks are still quite "budget".
I thought that 100$ for an Underground Sea was madness; now snap buy. When it continued to rise beyond this point, I came to my own personal conclusion that there really is no limit for some of these cards on the reserved list as long as they are legal in Commander. When a card like fulminator mage can support a price of >20$ (if left unprinted), you know that there is some tremendous bubble waiting to burst or that magic players, as a community, are willing to pay exorbitant prices for staples that really has no bounds over time (power creep and reprints excluded). Tarmogoyf, for example, will be a 200$ card in it's lifetime if left unprinted (personal opinion).
I'm actually surprised Port hasn't seen another upswing after the initial one post-GP Strasburg. The deck has been (DnT) consistently placing in top 8's in the last few months, preys on decks like Storm and Sneak/Snow and has become one of the decks to beat really. As mentioned, its reliance on basics (vs fetches/duals) and the fact that the rest of the deck (apart from the lands) can be obtained for 100$ or less makes it a very appealing solutions for mages on a budget.
I'm actually surprised Port hasn't seen another upswing after the initial one post-GP Strasburg. The deck has been (DnT) consistently placing in top 8's in the last few months, preys on decks like Storm and Sneak/Snow and has become one of the decks to beat really. As mentioned, its reliance on basics (vs fetches/duals) and the fact that the rest of the deck (apart from the lands) can be obtained for 100$ or less makes it a very appealing solutions for mages on a budget.
Agree with most of this, but DnT decks have had runs in the past (though maybe not to this level) then the meta seems to shift and make them go away again which could by why the rest of the cards are slow to rise.
Uh... looked it up as I read this sentence... What happened? I got it for 6 eur only a few months ago, now its >20 eur...
Should I sell it?
This is probably best discussed in the Modern Huge Gainers thread but, I would hold it if you play modern, otherwise sell. There is increasing confidence that there will be a Modern Master's 2 (maybe a few years?) at which point this card will take a dinger because it's mostly a sideboard card and also main deck in one deck (Living End deck) as mentioned above.
If selling I would wait until the heat of modern season though. Hold the foils though - seems like pimping is a thing in modern.
Since the printing of Scavenging Ooze in m14, the Living End decks have had a very difficult time. Turn 1 DRS was somewhat manageable (albeit a serious hindrance), but an early Ooze can wipe your yard 2-3 cards at a time, and this is major. Also, the decks does very poorly against counter magic. I don't know if you've ever had your Living End hit by Remand, but it makes one feel extremely ridiculous. The deck barely top 8's anything anymore, so I decided to part with my set when I could get 20$/piece store credit.
Fulminator Mages are going down, the only question here is when. Sooner than later, I'd guess.
Since the printing of Scavenging Ooze in m14, the Living End decks have had a very difficult time. Turn 1 DRS was somewhat manageable (albeit a serious hindrance), but an early Ooze can wipe your yard 2-3 cards at a time, and this is major. Also, the decks does very poorly against counter magic. I don't know if you've ever had your Living End hit by Remand, but it makes one feel extremely ridiculous. The deck barely top 8's anything anymore, so I decided to part with my set when I could get 20$/piece store credit.
Fulminator Mages are going down, the only question here is when. Sooner than later, I'd guess.
I dissagree and bad move in my opinion. You can wreck a deck early game if you dump and recur Fulminator Mage. She wins games, and just becsuse winning decks right now are not using her; does not mean her value is not there. I don't see her getting reprinted anytime soon this year. 3cmc mana cost stone rain (non basic) on a creature is nothing to sneeze at.
In a year or so these forums will be filled with arguments between players who want to build a stoneblade deck and insist Wizards NEEDS to reprint these right away or the format will die, and people who have theirs pointing out that you could buy a playset for less than the price of a fatpack for many years while everyone knew how good it was.
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I agree with all of your points except that I believe a modern banning logically means no MM or standard reprintings.
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This is true, but if they're going to do so it would have to be relatively soon, as there seems to be an unspoken soft cap on the value of cards they'll reprint in mass market precons. FTV or Judge promo seems like the most likely route.
I wouldn't say that dumping money in SFM is the safest investment in the world today, but it seems to be heading toward a place where we're unlikely to see a reprint. Wizards clearly doesn't care much about increasing availability of legacy-only cards even when the reserve list is not a factor (Force of Will, Wasteland), and there is fairly compelling evidence that it won't be reintroduced to other formats anytime soon.
TL,DR: there are some reprint scenarios that could drive the price back down, but if you ever might want to play these at least get your play set before you regret it more.
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
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DnT is actually not that good right now and I don't think it is that popular of a deck. Definitely not in the same field as the Delver or combo decks.
I remember trading my 4 sp Ports for $100 worth of cards and then sure enough they doubled, almost tripled afterwards lol. that has happened so many times to me.
Legacy
RUG DelverRUG
BUG DelverBUG
Modern
Good ol' fashioned JundBGR)[/I]
Standard
Too Boring
Commander
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Currently Playing:
Retired
You also have to remember that one of the best matchups for D&T decks is the RUG Delver MU. Notice most of the time when D&T wins or places real well in an event, RUG Delver and it's ilk are usually nearby in the meta.
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This. Despite needing a playset of 70$ lands, these decks are still quite "budget".
I thought that 100$ for an Underground Sea was madness; now snap buy. When it continued to rise beyond this point, I came to my own personal conclusion that there really is no limit for some of these cards on the reserved list as long as they are legal in Commander. When a card like fulminator mage can support a price of >20$ (if left unprinted), you know that there is some tremendous bubble waiting to burst or that magic players, as a community, are willing to pay exorbitant prices for staples that really has no bounds over time (power creep and reprints excluded). Tarmogoyf, for example, will be a 200$ card in it's lifetime if left unprinted (personal opinion).
Agree with most of this, but DnT decks have had runs in the past (though maybe not to this level) then the meta seems to shift and make them go away again which could by why the rest of the cards are slow to rise.
Yeah, there was no apology. FTV is supposed to get marked up huge as a bonus to local stores.
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This is probably best discussed in the Modern Huge Gainers thread but, I would hold it if you play modern, otherwise sell. There is increasing confidence that there will be a Modern Master's 2 (maybe a few years?) at which point this card will take a dinger because it's mostly a sideboard card and also main deck in one deck (Living End deck) as mentioned above.
If selling I would wait until the heat of modern season though. Hold the foils though - seems like pimping is a thing in modern.
Fulminator Mages are going down, the only question here is when. Sooner than later, I'd guess.
I dissagree and bad move in my opinion. You can wreck a deck early game if you dump and recur Fulminator Mage. She wins games, and just becsuse winning decks right now are not using her; does not mean her value is not there. I don't see her getting reprinted anytime soon this year. 3cmc mana cost stone rain (non basic) on a creature is nothing to sneeze at.
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All your Ice Age Foil Basics are belong to us
If you have any foil 7ED Island #334 I am very interested!