Most of the sets pre-Return to Ravnica have an EV of over $100. After RTR, there is quite a drop.
I can think of a few reasons why, but OVERALL, doesn't make sense as there are still great, playable AND fun cards (fun doesn't always equate valuable, I know, but playability should).
Reasons I can think of:
- High print run
- More casual playability, opposed to tournament playability
- Less original ideas/design
- Lackluster keywords create mediocre cards
- Market has been over-flooded w/ cards for decks, so the best ones raise the roof of EV
- Lottery cards, like Masterpieces and Expeditions lower EV, as boxes are opened like mad
But, even w/ all of that contributing, the EV's are still quite low. What will change in the near future is the Modern Set, as they (WotC R&D) most likely have a floor-length list of cards that would like to print that would (in their eyes) break standard. Maybe this is what keeps the EV down, R&D is walking on eggshells because they are so afraid of breaking standard and having to create a mid-season emergency ban of a card. If R&D would step out of their comfort zone, we might see some future sets have a higher EV after said set rotates out of Standard.
You could say the same thing, but stop at Revised. "Why are the post-revised sets all only two or three digits of EV? The first few sets started out strong with four or five."
Yes, RTR was when the print runs ramped up hard, so there's a lot more supply. That's really the heart of the matter.
What will change in the near future is the Modern Set, as they (WotC R&D) most likely have a floor-length list of cards that would like to print that would (in their eyes) break standard. Maybe this is what keeps the EV down, R&D is walking on eggshells because they are so afraid of breaking standard and having to create a mid-season emergency ban of a card. If R&D would step out of their comfort zone, we might see some future sets have a higher EV after said set rotates out of Standard.
You say this shortly after one of the most ban-heavy Standards EVER rotated a few months ago. I don't think thatR&D has been walking on eggshellsworried about power level.
It comes down to the reserve list. People hate the reserve list because they think it makes MTG too expensive.
Ok fine.
So they go the complete opposite direction with Modern Standard. Reprint modern staples into oblivion, vastly increase the size of the print runs for new product. Result: It makes magic cheaper. Players have been begging for this for years because they complain the cost of magic is too high. Now the cost of magic has never been cheaper. Relative to other years, the price of standard and Modern is cheaper than its ever been. There is so much product floating around. So players go what they wanted---cheaper magic which theoretically should lower the barrier to entry for MTG.
Here are the unintended side effects which I argued 5 years ago.
1. Loss of Allure of MTG as a collectible.
2. New mtg cards no longer appreciate in value. Market will begin adjusting with this realization.
3. Permanently lower EVs for all new sets based on extra supply and reasons 1-2, 4-5 (topic of the thread)
4. Lingering expectation that your cards to be reprinted and therefore drop in value over time. Pushes ppl to sell instead of holding onto cards.
5. Overreliance on the player aspect of the MTG market to pick up the slack in sales.
MTG has always been a collectible card game. Players and Collectors both. If you make MTG all about the game, without making it appealing for collectors,
your business model is heavily dependent on your new playerbase not getting bored. Sure MTG is cheaper for new entrants. But if you're pushing out collectors, you better hope you can keep those players invested in just the game aspect and not moving onto fortnite or life.
You say this shortly after one of the most ban-heavy Standards EVER rotated a few months ago. I don't think thatR&D has been walking on eggshellsworried about power level.
Vehicles and Energy were first introduced in Kaladesh block, so it is expected that there will be falls and stumbles when going out into the dark. Those cards were tested in a bubble, yet somehow they broke standard. 5 out of the 7 cards you linked somehow snuck by the censors. But let's look at those cards outside of standard, outside of that bubble. Attune with Aether isn't as same a powerful card as let's say... Cultivate.
Now look at the 80-cents+ ratio of commons & uncommons from before RTR and after RTR. Even five years after RTR, the list of value from commons and uncommons... outside of Gatecrash, the amount of value in the uncommons is pitiful. Now look at the value of the commons, no really, look hard; try a microscope to look hard., Guess what you see... nada, zip and zero. Compare that to the commons & uncommons in the OG Ravnica block. Sure, Dredge was a mistake and there is a lot of deck searching w/ the Transmute cards, but the ratio is way off. Look at other examples: Time Spiral, Shadowmoor, New Phyrexia. OK, so the sets between Mirrodin and Innistrad might have been Magic's golden years of design, but the EV of some of the newer additions to Modern should, in theory, have higher dollar+ commons and uncommons (btw, using those 2 rarities because the card designs are much less complex).
I think the main culprit (as mentioned right above) is reprinting the hell out of the cards (I remember Future Sight used to be a $3 card... now's it is around 80 cents). The other culprit is mass production.
I think the main culprit (as mentioned right above) is reprinting the hell out of the cards (I remember Future Sight used to be a $3 card... now's it is around 80 cents). The other culprit is mass production.
But it's not just the reprinting of cards...
It's the expectation that the cards will be reprinted. Wizards has gone absolutely reprint crazy. It lowers the barrier to entry of magic.
But it also makes people less committed to their collections and their decks.
If I open a shiny new mythic planeswalker in a new set, should I hold onto it or sell it? Wizards has not in fact reprinted it (obviously since its the first time coming out), but the decision to sell is based on what i expect wizards to do. There's no question these days you should expect Wizards to reprint based on their recent actions.
If that's the case, then there's no point holding onto my new Serra planeswalker(as an example). She's just going to be one of six different editions.
It's mostly just a matter of things getting further out. Sets appreciate in value over time. Some sets are legitimately bad and will forever be low - I don't expect BNG or Dragon's Maze to ever be highly sought-after. But over time, sets gain value as the last vestiges of the supply dry up and demand continues to increase.
RTR looks like a big dip because one of its big money draws - Shocklands - is currently in-print in Standard, depressing demand. But before Shocks were reprinted, there was a smoother transition with RTR falling between the sets that came before it and the sets that came after it in value.
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There is another factor that hasn’t been mentioned here. There was a massive spike in player growth from around 2009-2013 that tapered off greatly and I have even read, though not seen confirmed, that the estimated player base actually shrunk during the atrocious years of standard between BFZ and Dominaria. That growth slowed right around the time that they upped the print runs of standard sets.
So basically you have tons of sealed boxes floating around from bad sets that were never purchased.
It's mostly just a matter of things getting further out. Sets appreciate in value over time. Some sets are legitimately bad and will forever be low - I don't expect BNG or Dragon's Maze to ever be highly sought-after. But over time, sets gain value as the last vestiges of the supply dry up and demand continues to increase.
It isn’t going to happen for these sets.
It may not feel like it, but Return to Ravnica was printed almost 7 years ago now. Boxes from the Zendikar block, Innistrad and New Phyrexia we’re selling for $200+ on the secondary market within a year of going out of print.
Right now, Khans is the only standard set printed since Avacyn Restored for which booster boxes are going for more than $100-110 shipped on eBay. And the main reason for that is Fetchlands. Sure, triple Khans is a very well-liked draft format, but so was triple RTR.
I'm not sure what they could do to booster box value in such a high volume market. They make more money the more booster boxes they sell which results in lower single prices.
They could taper down the printing a bit. But, like you said, this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Cheap Standard boxes means cheap Standard singles, which means a lower bar to enter Standard. Seems like the correct move on their part - I for one LIKE lower-EV boxes.
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Most of the sets pre-Return to Ravnica have an EV of over $100. After RTR, there is quite a drop.
I can think of a few reasons why, but OVERALL, doesn't make sense as there are still great, playable AND fun cards (fun doesn't always equate valuable, I know, but playability should).
Reasons I can think of:
- High print run
- More casual playability, opposed to tournament playability
- Less original ideas/design
- Lackluster keywords create mediocre cards
- Market has been over-flooded w/ cards for decks, so the best ones raise the roof of EV
- Lottery cards, like Masterpieces and Expeditions lower EV, as boxes are opened like mad
But, even w/ all of that contributing, the EV's are still quite low. What will change in the near future is the Modern Set, as they (WotC R&D) most likely have a floor-length list of cards that would like to print that would (in their eyes) break standard. Maybe this is what keeps the EV down, R&D is walking on eggshells because they are so afraid of breaking standard and having to create a mid-season emergency ban of a card. If R&D would step out of their comfort zone, we might see some future sets have a higher EV after said set rotates out of Standard.
Yes, RTR was when the print runs ramped up hard, so there's a lot more supply. That's really the heart of the matter.
Edit:
You say this shortly after one of the most ban-heavy Standards EVER rotated a few months ago. I don't think that R&D has been walking on eggshells worried about power level.
Ok fine.
So they go the complete opposite direction with Modern Standard. Reprint modern staples into oblivion, vastly increase the size of the print runs for new product. Result: It makes magic cheaper. Players have been begging for this for years because they complain the cost of magic is too high. Now the cost of magic has never been cheaper. Relative to other years, the price of standard and Modern is cheaper than its ever been. There is so much product floating around. So players go what they wanted---cheaper magic which theoretically should lower the barrier to entry for MTG.
Here are the unintended side effects which I argued 5 years ago.
1. Loss of Allure of MTG as a collectible.
2. New mtg cards no longer appreciate in value. Market will begin adjusting with this realization.
3. Permanently lower EVs for all new sets based on extra supply and reasons 1-2, 4-5 (topic of the thread)
4. Lingering expectation that your cards to be reprinted and therefore drop in value over time. Pushes ppl to sell instead of holding onto cards.
5. Overreliance on the player aspect of the MTG market to pick up the slack in sales.
MTG has always been a collectible card game. Players and Collectors both. If you make MTG all about the game, without making it appealing for collectors,
your business model is heavily dependent on your new playerbase not getting bored. Sure MTG is cheaper for new entrants. But if you're pushing out collectors, you better hope you can keep those players invested in just the game aspect and not moving onto fortnite or life.
Vehicles and Energy were first introduced in Kaladesh block, so it is expected that there will be falls and stumbles when going out into the dark. Those cards were tested in a bubble, yet somehow they broke standard. 5 out of the 7 cards you linked somehow snuck by the censors. But let's look at those cards outside of standard, outside of that bubble. Attune with Aether isn't as same a powerful card as let's say... Cultivate.
Now look at the 80-cents+ ratio of commons & uncommons from before RTR and after RTR. Even five years after RTR, the list of value from commons and uncommons... outside of Gatecrash, the amount of value in the uncommons is pitiful. Now look at the value of the commons, no really, look hard; try a microscope to look hard., Guess what you see... nada, zip and zero. Compare that to the commons & uncommons in the OG Ravnica block. Sure, Dredge was a mistake and there is a lot of deck searching w/ the Transmute cards, but the ratio is way off. Look at other examples: Time Spiral, Shadowmoor, New Phyrexia. OK, so the sets between Mirrodin and Innistrad might have been Magic's golden years of design, but the EV of some of the newer additions to Modern should, in theory, have higher dollar+ commons and uncommons (btw, using those 2 rarities because the card designs are much less complex).
I think the main culprit (as mentioned right above) is reprinting the hell out of the cards (I remember Future Sight used to be a $3 card... now's it is around 80 cents). The other culprit is mass production.
But it's not just the reprinting of cards...
It's the expectation that the cards will be reprinted. Wizards has gone absolutely reprint crazy. It lowers the barrier to entry of magic.
But it also makes people less committed to their collections and their decks.
If I open a shiny new mythic planeswalker in a new set, should I hold onto it or sell it? Wizards has not in fact reprinted it (obviously since its the first time coming out), but the decision to sell is based on what i expect wizards to do. There's no question these days you should expect Wizards to reprint based on their recent actions.
If that's the case, then there's no point holding onto my new Serra planeswalker(as an example). She's just going to be one of six different editions.
RTR looks like a big dip because one of its big money draws - Shocklands - is currently in-print in Standard, depressing demand. But before Shocks were reprinted, there was a smoother transition with RTR falling between the sets that came before it and the sets that came after it in value.
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So basically you have tons of sealed boxes floating around from bad sets that were never purchased.
It isn’t going to happen for these sets.
It may not feel like it, but Return to Ravnica was printed almost 7 years ago now. Boxes from the Zendikar block, Innistrad and New Phyrexia we’re selling for $200+ on the secondary market within a year of going out of print.
Right now, Khans is the only standard set printed since Avacyn Restored for which booster boxes are going for more than $100-110 shipped on eBay. And the main reason for that is Fetchlands. Sure, triple Khans is a very well-liked draft format, but so was triple RTR.
They could taper down the printing a bit. But, like you said, this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Cheap Standard boxes means cheap Standard singles, which means a lower bar to enter Standard. Seems like the correct move on their part - I for one LIKE lower-EV boxes.