I've sort of started wondering about this, but how does a vendor know they are going to have 8x of a given card, or 12x of a given card available for sale? Are they just doing mathematical calculations based on openings, or are they getting the number of orders to figure out how many pallets they are purchasing from the distributor? I'm assuming the later, but then are they limiting their order and that is why they don't have more of a given card? Do they just keep a card at a price and if too many are pre-sold they up the price to account it for more of the next pallets box EV?
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Typically stores that do pre-orders calculate the approximate amount of each card they expect to get from opening the number of boxes/cases that they are going to normally open, and figuring a typically safe number below the expected average, will pre-sell some number at or below that safe number. In the end everything tends to average out once you open a large enough amount of boxes/cases so as long as your safe number is giving enough margin for error, the amount opened should be easily enough to cover any pre-orders. As for pricing, typically that depends on the store. A lot of it is just trying to determine what the market is willing to pay for the cards, sometimes this means pricing higher and lowering it until people buy, or sometimes that can mean pricing lower and then selling through some amount of pre-order inventory and then raising the price and continuing that cycle until you have either run out of pre-orders or until they eventually stop selling or sell at a more normal pace. It is typically a good idea not to put your entire pre-order inventory up at a single price point just in case the price ends up being too low. Basically there is a bit to the process but given that typically the high point of value tends to be during pre-order season for a lot of cards, shops tend to make the most money during that period on cards before the market gets epically flooded after release.
Ah, so it's basically just a safety net number and a lot of price adjustment. That does make sense and it seems now the typical mode of operation is to price higher during pre-release due to the culture around the card ordering. It's kind of interesting because unlike the pre-order culture of the computer games industry, there's no advantages to really pre-ordering cards. From the way it sounds, it is speculators vs single sellers with one side trying to cheat in at a lower than expected market price, while the singles sellers are trying to gauge what the cards are actually worth to people. And going by metrics this entire juggling dance act is pointless because the prices crash about one month after release during the slump period between sets. The small sets tend to fair better because of the summer months limiting copies of cards getting into the market and the whole split draft / limited with boosters.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
My advice to anyone considering pre-orders: don't unless you are immediately using the card for play. In current ebay practices sellers have a no-lose prospect due to the purchase cancellation policies. The vast majority of cards begin falling in price immediately after set release. For those few that don't, the seller simply cancels the transaction (claiming not enough inventory, etc) and re-lists them at the higher price or sells them locally. As the odds are in the seller's favor, even with negative feedback they still maintain a very high ratings, and most buyers / victims don't realized what happened.
Don't pre-order. Let the market prices stabilize a couple weeks after set release. Your gains will far outweigh the occasional rare card that spikes in value.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Don't pre-order. Let the market prices stabilize a couple weeks after set release. Your gains will far outweigh the occasional rare card that spikes in value.