My example is Springjack Shepherd. For over 5 years, this card was a quarter. Now it has value, and because of price memory from when it jumped, it is now a viable card for trade. Now I know there were smaller prints runs back in Alara block[Eventide - Jeff helped me see the tired-eye mistake], but that same argument was applied when Alara block[Eventide] was being released w/ cards from sets 5 years earlier. So I will disregard the excuse about print run, since it is a go-to explanation used in the past.
My theories:
Buy-outs
Casual Appeal
That is all I can come up with and it feels weak, like there is a deeper reason than that. Could it be the Illuminati or the Friars Club? Who knows...
So, are there any other logical reasons for the value of a cheap random uncommon to be more than a beer coaster?
Actually the card is from Eventide, which due to being a part of the 2 mini-block setup of Lorwyn/Morningtide and then Shadowmoor/Eventide, ended up being rather significantly under-opened compared to some of the other sets, and even with its small set size. Also the card has the potential to create a rather crazy number of tokens, so don't underestimate that, especially among casual crowds, and given that the card has never been reprinted since it was released and given that many people (honestly myself included before you mentioned it) are likely not aware of what its going for (and thus the potential for a massive amount of supply sitting on the sidelines in random common/uncommon boxes), and you have a recipe for a card to potentially be worth a couple of dollars randomly as an uncommon from before magic took off in 2009 the way it did. Beyond that specifically, I honestly have no idea why it would be that high, but I figure the combination of the above should reasonably cover it well enough.
Most cards with a token or counter theme that saw an increase in price can generally be attributed to the popularity of Atraxa.
Springjack Shepherd's jump came a year before Atraxa. Plus Atraxa has no interaction w/ the Shepherd. Atraxa gave strength to cards dealing w/ counters, not solely tokens.
But that was just an example of a jump in which I couldn't figure out a source.
There is a lot of random uncommons or even commons that are more than bulk prices. Lot of reasons. Basically a combination of bigger player base, casual appeal, and being printed from sets before Innistrad block. Some sets were severed underprinted and/or under-opened.
The cards that suffer from buyout have modern potential usually.
Most cards with a token or counter theme that saw an increase in price can generally be attributed to the popularity of Atraxa.
Springjack Shepherd's jump came a year before Atraxa. Plus Atraxa has no interaction w/ the Shepherd. Atraxa gave strength to cards dealing w/ counters, not solely tokens.
But that was just an example of a jump in which I couldn't figure out a source.
I'm well aware of what Atraxa deals with. But what cards are ubiquitous with Atraxa decks (non-superfriend, token-based versions)? Doubling Season, Parallel Lives, and Primal Vigor. I didn't think I had to spell it out, but apparently I did.
As for your claim the Shepherd's jump came a year before Atraxa, if MTGGoldfish is to be believed, this is categorically false. Atraxa was spoiled the end of October 2016, and so a year before that (in October 2015) the card was 30 cents. Six months after that, April of '16, the card had barely moved, to 40 cents. And from April of '16 to the end of August of '16 it had climbed to 70 cents. It appears a buy-out did occur in late August, which WAS before Atraxa had been spoiled, but the post buy-out prices quickly retreated, albeit to a level higher than pre-buyout, and the card is up nearly 20% since Atraxa was spoiled. So no, the card didn't increase a year before Atraxa, more like 7 weeks before and has seen an increase since. Shepherd may/may not be found in many Atraxa builds, but when it comes to tokens/counters, a rising tide lifts all boats.
As a final comment, notice my original post said "MOST cards with a token or counter theme" and "generally be attributed to". Since the OP originally asked about "random uncommons", my comment was directed towards all token/counter cards, not specifically the Shepherd.
The card was featured on the TheManaSource Youtube channel seven months ago as a part of a budget Modern deck, and there was a direct link to purchase the deck list. Pretty sure that was what caused the spike.
Honestly, the biggest culprit here is probably low supply.
Modern is a BIG format spanning 15 years' worth of cards.
A lot of these are just not super-plentiful to begin with, so even a minor buyout causes them to shoot up more dramatically than you would normally expect. They're just more volatile to begin with.
The ones that have never been reprinted again, it's worse. I couldn't help but notice that Springjack Shepherd has never been reprinted.
However, most times, casual players everywhere say "Oh, I have that card!" and they start to flood Ebay over the following weeks/months. And then, hopefully, the increased supply begins to stabilize at a more reasonable price. See attached. Yes, I'm sure folks here will pick apart my example as not applicable (and that's perfectly fine--it was the first thing I could think of.) I'm just sayin..I see this happen a lot over the years.
Alara block[Eventide - Jeff helped me see the tired-eye mistake], but that same argument was applied whenAlara block[Eventide] was being released w/ cards from sets 5 years earlier. So I will disregard the excuse about print run, since it is a go-to explanation used in the past.My theories:
Buy-outs
Casual Appeal
That is all I can come up with and it feels weak, like there is a deeper reason than that. Could it be the Illuminati or the Friars Club? Who knows...
So, are there any other logical reasons for the value of a cheap random uncommon to be more than a beer coaster?
Springjack Shepherd's jump came a year before Atraxa. Plus Atraxa has no interaction w/ the Shepherd. Atraxa gave strength to cards dealing w/ counters, not solely tokens.
But that was just an example of a jump in which I couldn't figure out a source.
The cards that suffer from buyout have modern potential usually.
I'm well aware of what Atraxa deals with. But what cards are ubiquitous with Atraxa decks (non-superfriend, token-based versions)? Doubling Season, Parallel Lives, and Primal Vigor. I didn't think I had to spell it out, but apparently I did.
As for your claim the Shepherd's jump came a year before Atraxa, if MTGGoldfish is to be believed, this is categorically false. Atraxa was spoiled the end of October 2016, and so a year before that (in October 2015) the card was 30 cents. Six months after that, April of '16, the card had barely moved, to 40 cents. And from April of '16 to the end of August of '16 it had climbed to 70 cents. It appears a buy-out did occur in late August, which WAS before Atraxa had been spoiled, but the post buy-out prices quickly retreated, albeit to a level higher than pre-buyout, and the card is up nearly 20% since Atraxa was spoiled. So no, the card didn't increase a year before Atraxa, more like 7 weeks before and has seen an increase since. Shepherd may/may not be found in many Atraxa builds, but when it comes to tokens/counters, a rising tide lifts all boats.
As a final comment, notice my original post said "MOST cards with a token or counter theme" and "generally be attributed to". Since the OP originally asked about "random uncommons", my comment was directed towards all token/counter cards, not specifically the Shepherd.
Modern is a BIG format spanning 15 years' worth of cards.
A lot of these are just not super-plentiful to begin with, so even a minor buyout causes them to shoot up more dramatically than you would normally expect. They're just more volatile to begin with.
The ones that have never been reprinted again, it's worse. I couldn't help but notice that Springjack Shepherd has never been reprinted.
However, most times, casual players everywhere say "Oh, I have that card!" and they start to flood Ebay over the following weeks/months. And then, hopefully, the increased supply begins to stabilize at a more reasonable price. See attached. Yes, I'm sure folks here will pick apart my example as not applicable (and that's perfectly fine--it was the first thing I could think of.) I'm just sayin..I see this happen a lot over the years.
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