I am very interested in Ash Barrens as a potentially growing card, and wanted to discuss that. They say you should always invest in real estate, and here that might be more true than most.
As you can see, after an initial spike during pre-order season, the card has settled down to about $1.35 per. I think that's too low, and I suspect this is a card that is going to double in price -- at least -- before a reprint. Yep, that's right, I'm putting it right out there and making a prediction. There's always a lot of uncertainty in doing this, but I think the reasoning is sound.
First off, let's recap how good this card is. It's a fetch land / land tutor that is not affected by Blood Moon, Chalice, or counter magic. It very nearly renders all the other cheap fetchlands (Evolving Wilds, Terramophic Expanse, the Panoramas) obsolete. If you need one MORE mana THIS TURN, you can get that by playing it and tapping for colorless. If you need mana of a PARTICULAR COLOR this turn, well, this land can do that for you, too! Just cycle it and play the basic untapped. You can't do both, so obviously it's not as good as the true fetchlands, but the fact that you can do one or the other makes this the cream of the crop in its class. On top of that, it can tap for Eldrazi mana too, if your'e swinging that way. The card is pushed.
Next, let's think about where we would see this card. EDH, of course, is a no-brainer. This card slots right into virtually any EDH deck, certainly those running 3+ colors. Right away, that suggests to me that the floor for this card is Command Tower. Over time, Command Tower has gone up and down but basically settled on $1.60. (https://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Commander 2013 Edition/Command Tower#paper)
That may be the floor, but I don't think that's the ceiling. Command Tower is amazing in Commander, and totally useless outside of that format. It has a built-in limitation on its demand. Ash Barrens has no such limitation. It goes in cubes. It goes in casual decks. It will probably pop up from time to time in Legacy and Vintage as a Blood Moon hedge. And, since it's so generally useful, I suspect people will want lots of these. This all suggests to me that the ceiling is much higher on these cards, and the demand will exceed that for Command Tower.
Now, what's the risk on this thing? I don't think there's any risk of it falling lower than it is right now. A dollar is probably the floor on it while it's in print; perhaps it will dip a tiny bit as we reach maximum supply, but not much. If it keeps getting reprinted in future Commander products, I would expect it to track and exceed Command Tower, which has done the same. If it does not see that level of reprint, I expect it to steadily climb in price.
There's one risk I don't know how to quantify, which is how likely it works its way into a Standard set. It certainly could; cycling comes up now and then as a mechanic, and basic landcycling does likewise. Still, I don't think that's planned for the moment. Why? Well, if this was the only cycling card in Commander 2016, you could suspect that it was a plant from a future set. Instead, we saw a whole "cycle" of cycling cards used to help smooth our the mana of these four color decks. Just like they did in the Alara block. That is, the reason we got this cycling land was that it was designed specifically for this peculiar version of Commander. It could be reprinted, but there's not any good reason to conclude it will be any time soon.
My conclusion -- and I invite you to share your own experiences and comments -- is that this card is poised for growth. If you, like me, have cubes and casual decks that are hungry for better fetches, I suggest gobbling these up now, while it's in print. I suspect you'll regret it later if you do not.
Personally, it holds zero value to me in an EDH deck. The card is primarily intended as a mana fixer, and those of us that enjoy the benefits of a good mana base rarely need fixing, at least not in this manner. This is fine if you're on a budget or don't have a good mana pool, but if you do, then this is about as useful as Terramorphic and its brethren, which in my personal experience as a part of a weekly playgroup of about 8 people with about 60 decks between us, appears in about 2-3 decks at most. Could it double in price? Yes, it's possible, but that's only if it doesn't see a reprint, and may take a year or more.
Interesting. When I'm building an EDH deck with 3 or more colors, I practically always toss in a core of rainbow lands: Command Tower, City of Brass, Terramorphic, and Evolving Wilds. My impression was most people will start with these when making those kind of decks.
The other thing to bear in mind, like I said before, is that I think this card is a material upgrade to Expanse/Wilds. I can't imagine any circumstance in which this not just a flat out upgrade -- except, perhaps if this was the ONLY card in your opening hand and you needed colored mana right away.
Personally, it holds zero value to me in an EDH deck. The card is primarily intended as a mana fixer, and those of us that enjoy the benefits of a good mana base rarely need fixing, at least not in this manner. This is fine if you're on a budget or don't have a good mana pool, but if you do, then this is about as useful as Terramorphic and its brethren, which in my personal experience as a part of a weekly playgroup of about 8 people with about 60 decks between us, appears in about 2-3 decks at most. Could it double in price? Yes, it's possible, but that's only if it doesn't see a reprint, and may take a year or more.
I think you may be underestimating the fact that it doesn't make you have a land come into play tapped. It lets you invest the "tapped land" on a previous turn by paying one colorless. Also it is a much better top deck since it can just be a wastes if your mana is already fixed.
I don't necessarily see it as a staple in 3+ color decks but I think a fair number of them could make use of it, especially non green ones.
The other thing to bear in mind, like I said before, is that I think this card is a material upgrade to Expanse/Wilds. I can't imagine any circumstance in which this not just a flat out upgrade -- except, perhaps if this was the ONLY card in your opening hand and you needed colored mana right away.
Terramorphic/Wilds are generally better to have opening hand, about even in the early game, and generally worse late game. The big thing for opening hand is checklands, which are common in EDH manabases, not playing as nicely with Ash Barrens. They're different enough that I wouldn't classify one as a strict upgrade to the other, and I suspect any deck that wants one for fixing wants all three.
Ash Barrens is a solid budget fixer, which is a fine place to be, but that does cap how high it will go. There are plenty of EDH players invested enough to have access to fetch/shock manabases, which get colors reliably enough to not need Terramorphic/Wilds. Barrens fills some holes for the manabases worse than that and is only going to see occasional play in manabases around that level or better. For legacy, you have to ask how often it will be better than just including a basic of whichever color you're most likely to need under a Moon effect. Basic forest is probably as good or better much of the time. The only deck I can think of offhand that could take advantage of Barrens to play around moon is Shardless and I doubt that manabase has space for a situational slow fetch.
I picked up a set of the precons so I have a bunch of these, but I have no immediate plans to use any of them (outside of playing the precons as is). I could see it climbing a little, but I have trouble seeing it break $2 unless it's never reprinted. I also wouldn't be surprised to see this as a regular fixture in future commander precons, which would do a lot of work to keep the price down.
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It may be an upgrade over Terramorphic, but an upgrade over a land I run in literally ZERO of my dozen or so multi-colored decks is irrelevant to me. Again, IMO it's fine if you're on a budget, or don't have better cards, but my decks are optimized with on-color fetches, Revised duals, and fetchable Shocks and Battle lands, not to mention the usual Tower and Reflecting Pool and requisite rocks such as signets and Chromatic Lantern. There's just no way this sees its way into a competitive deck with an optimized mana base and optimal mana fixing. All I can do is speak from experience, I will not be encountering this card played by by opponents, nor will I be using it myself in a constructed format, outside of Pauper.
First off, let's recap how good this card is. It's a fetch land / land tutor that is not affected by Blood Moon, Chalice, or counter magic. It very nearly renders all the other cheap fetchlands (Evolving Wilds, Terramophic Expanse, the Panoramas) obsolete.
The lands are different enough that I think it's fairly hyperbolic to say that it obsoletes the other fetching lands. Primarily, the others trigger landfall twice. Landfall has a lot more support than cycling, in terms of abilities that interact with it. There are certainly cute tricks that work with cycling, but landfall has more support (especially in EDH). I think that, in a vacuum, the others are better (mostly because if you're staring at a one-land hand this isn't going to do you much good). I do like that it taps for <>, but it's not Command Tower - that card provides all the colors you need, right away. Full stop. This gets you one color.
Now, what's the risk on this thing? I don't think there's any risk of it falling lower than it is right now. It could be reprinted, but there's not any good reason to conclude it will be any time soon.
My conclusion -- and I invite you to share your own experiences and comments -- is that this card is poised for growth. If you, like me, have cubes and casual decks that are hungry for better fetches, I suggest gobbling these up now, while it's in print. I suspect you'll regret it later if you do not.
Ah, to the heart of the matter!
I'm generally VERY leery of speccing on commons (in fact, I never do it). It's too easy for WOTC to randomly reprint them and flood the market. A random inclusion in the next Eternal Masters will absolutely crush this card's value. This card is in every deck, so every budget player who buys just one of the decks will get a copy. That means that it's competing for a fraction of the MSRP - remember, these will be sold for MSRP at big box stores - with all the other goodies in the box. If this goes up, literally everything else* has to drop. Otherwise people buy and open and try to sell until there aren't any more buyers, and then the prices drop naturally. Alternatively, if the pries on anything else go up, Ash Barrens might be one of the first to feel the pinch, since it can relieve the pressure on all five decks.
Hopefully this helps you understand where I'm coming from. Happy to discuss further.
* = something has to fall from each deck, not necessarily every card.
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So, you're saying two things: (1) it's not clear that Ash Barrens is better than the other budget fetchlands, and (2) it's risky to speculate on Barrens since its a common. You could be right. Still, I think there's reason to doubt both conclusions.
As for utility, let's do a comparison to, say Terramorphic.
PROS COMPARED TO TERRMORPHIC
1) Can produce <> right away, allowing you to stay on curve.
2) Can filter one mana into any other color of mana (by fetching the relevant basic) right away.
3) Being an instant-speed Lay of the Land, you can use this to fix your next turn's land drop without missing one. For example, you can leave mana up in a control deck and use this at end of turn to fix your next drop without missing a beat. Also means you can use things like Thran Dynamo to activate this. Not sure why you would, but hey...
4) Multiples (or copies you get back with Life from the Loam or something) can be used multiple times in the same turn.
5) Can fetch through a Blood Moon
CONS COMPARED TO TERRAMORPHIC
1) Barrens give you fewer landfall triggers.
2) Cards that recur lands into play (like Crucible) don't cooperate with Barrens.
3) If Barrens is your only land on turn 1, you cannot use it to fetch the right color immediately.
When you lay it out side by side, I think the right conclusion is that Barrens is, overall, a better card. Primarily, this is because it affects your curve in a more flexible way. It gives you more options. There are particular kinds of decks where Terramorphic works better, sure, but generally speaking you're going to want this one.
As for the fact that it's at common... I mean, yeah it is, but it's common in a supplemental product that will be sold for only the next chunk of the year. If it's reprinted, then the price will certainly stabilize or fall. But, there are clues to suggest it may not be on the radar for quick reprinting. It's part of a cycling theme in these Commander decks. Clearly, they used basic landcycling to help smooth the mana requirements of four color decks.
They say you should always invest in real estate, and here that might be more true than most.
It is true that they say this, but what I want to know is how could buying a magic card that depicts an ashy wasteland be more true than buying real real estate in real life?
Well, by "they" I meant "Magic the Gathering finance types," but I get the point.
The bigger idea here is that useful lands are almost always going to have some demand. Good mana fixing is needed by practically everybody, and so fixing settles at various places along the price point to serve the whole market. It's unusual for a decent mana fixer to be truly bulk, even if it's lower-tier fixing. (See: filter lands, pain lands, even the Invasion filter cycle we got some reprints from in COM16)
Of course, as we see with Terramorphic Expanse and Evolving Wilds, you can certainly get there if Wizards reprints the card into a fine powder. Also, of course, printing truly terrible lands like the CIPT dual lands from Zendikar breaks the rule, too.
Comparing the merits of a card (Ash Barrens) to a mediocre-to-bad card (Terramorphic) doesn't make the first card more appealing, it just makes it a modicum less bad. I've played literally thousands of games of EDH since 2009 against at least 75 opponents. Nobody uses TE unless they have a poor collection or are just getting into the game. If they do, odds are the deck is garbage and upgrading their TE to an Ash Barrens isn't going to make a lick of difference.
So, you're saying two things: (1) it's not clear that Ash Barrens is better than the other budget fetchlands, and (2) it's risky to speculate on Barrens since its a common. You could be right. Still, I think there's reason to doubt both conclusions.
As for utility, let's do a comparison to, say Terramorphic.
PROS COMPARED TO TERRMORPHIC
1) Can produce <> right away, allowing you to stay on curve.
2) Can filter one mana into any other color of mana (by fetching the relevant basic) right away.
3) Being an instant-speed Lay of the Land, you can use this to fix your next turn's land drop without missing one. For example, you can leave mana up in a control deck and use this at end of turn to fix your next drop without missing a beat. Also means you can use things like Thran Dynamo to activate this. Not sure why you would, but hey...
4) Multiples (or copies you get back with Life from the Loam or something) can be used multiple times in the same turn.
5) Can fetch through a Blood Moon
CONS COMPARED TO TERRAMORPHIC
1) Barrens give you fewer landfall triggers.
2) Cards that recur lands into play (like Crucible) don't cooperate with Barrens.
3) If Barrens is your only land on turn 1, you cannot use it to fetch the right color immediately.
When you lay it out side by side, I think the right conclusion is that Barrens is, overall, a better card. Primarily, this is because it affects your curve in a more flexible way. It gives you more options. There are particular kinds of decks where Terramorphic works better, sure, but generally speaking you're going to want this one.
As for the fact that it's at common... I mean, yeah it is, but it's common in a supplemental product that will be sold for only the next chunk of the year. If it's reprinted, then the price will certainly stabilize or fall. But, there are clues to suggest it may not be on the radar for quick reprinting. It's part of a cycling theme in these Commander decks. Clearly, they used basic landcycling to help smooth the mana requirements of four color decks.
Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying.
So, I'm going to say that your first point is right. It does seem like Ash Barrens is generally better than Terramorphic Expanse. It's not head-and-shoulders above the rest (which is why it's still a budget card), but it still seems like a solid budget card.
But that brings me to point two. When I look at this year's decks, what do I see? 5x Command Tower. 5x Commander's Sphere. 2x Opal Palace. AKA, all the common mana-fixing cards that were introduced in previous years. If Ash Barrens is good enough at its job, it's going to join that list of cards as "We just print these every year" mana fixing. Yes, basic landcycling was used to help smooth out the awkwardness of a four-color manabase with budget duals, but that's not to say that they won't be willing to just jam it in like Terramorphic Expanse every year that they make multicolor decks. That is the sad and glorious reality of its future - it doesn't suck, so it'll be reprinted frequently.
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I think we agree that this thing's price trajectory will be dramatically affected by reprints. Particularly if it's in a supplemental product. If Barrens were to climb to 3-5 WotC would probably have no qualms about reprinting it whether it fit into a thematic cycle or not.
This chart shows what happened to Command Tower. Notice how it crept up to $3.25 or so at its peak? It was originally in Commander 2013, dodged a reprint in 2014, and that alone doubled its price. It was not until it was reprinted in 2015 and now 2016 that it's price came back down to Earth, and even then, it isn't really much lower than it started.
Admittedly, going from 30 cents to 50 cents is nothing to write home about, but it's still growth. I think the price is lower because the card is not as good as Command Tower to begin with.
I think these charts show us that -- particularly if a year goes by with no reprint, which as I've said before, seems very possible -- Ash Barrens can easily double up. Even if you argue that Command Tower is a superior card over Ash Barrens in commander, which I agree with, the fact remains that Ash Barrens can actually see play outside of that format. Command Tower cannot. I'm not just even talking about some weirdo who plugs one in his sideboard at a Legacy Open as a Blood Moon hedge. Personally, I have a huge box of casual decks* that I keep assembled so my kids and I have something to play with, and I kinda want tons of copies of this to replace Terramorphic Expanse in a lot of those decks. I suspect the fact that Barrens can be played in more formats that Command Tower will more than make up for the fact that in Commander itself, Ash Barrens will not be top-tier fixing.
* = Full disclosure, I'm not looking to speculate on this card. I actually just want to buy more at the floor because of all my casual decks. I snagged 20 copies for 20 dolla during pre-order, which already looks like a good idea since it's up to $1.30 and holding steady. I'm looking to pull the trigger on more, since I think the price is bound to increase.
I think we agree that this thing's price trajectory will be dramatically affected by reprints. Particularly if it's in a supplemental product. If Barrens were to climb to 3-5 WotC would probably have no qualms about reprinting it whether it fit into a thematic cycle or not.
This chart shows what happened to Command Tower. Notice how it crept up to $3.25 or so at its peak? It was originally in Commander 2013, dodged a reprint in 2014, and that alone doubled its price. It was not until it was reprinted in 2015 and now 2016 that it's price came back down to Earth, and even then, it isn't really much lower than it started.
Admittedly, going from 30 cents to 50 cents is nothing to write home about, but it's still growth. I think the price is lower because the card is not as good as Command Tower to begin with.
I think these charts show us that -- particularly if a year goes by with no reprint, which as I've said before, seems very possible -- Ash Barrens can easily double up. Even if you argue that Command Tower is a superior card over Ash Barrens in commander, which I agree with, the fact remains that Ash Barrens can actually see play outside of that format. Command Tower cannot. I'm not just even talking about some weirdo who plugs one in his sideboard at a Legacy Open as a Blood Moon hedge. Personally, I have a huge box of casual decks* that I keep assembled so my kids and I have something to play with, and I kinda want tons of copies of this to replace Terramorphic Expanse in a lot of those decks. I suspect the fact that Barrens can be played in more formats that Command Tower will more than make up for the fact that in Commander itself, Ash Barrens will not be top-tier fixing.
* = Full disclosure, I'm not looking to speculate on this card. I actually just want to buy more at the floor because of all my casual decks. I snagged 20 copies for 20 dolla during pre-order, which already looks like a good idea since it's up to $1.30 and holding steady. I'm looking to pull the trigger on more, since I think the price is bound to increase.
Command Tower was originally printed in Commander 2011. It's been reprinted every year except 2014, because 2014 had mono-colored decks (in 2012 it was reprinted in Commander's Arsenal, which is outside the scope of ... pretty much everything).
As you mention, it can be played in other formats - which opens up more reprint potential as well. How many Duel Decks came with Terramorphic Expanse that might now have Ash Barrens? Archenemy: Nicol Bolas comes out next year. My guess is that those decks will have Ash Barrens if they're multicolor. The next iteration of Planechase (which might be coming back, if this fall's release is popular). The next iteration of Conspiracy. WOTC is cranking out a ton of supplementary products these days - if, as I've agreed, Ash Barrens is comparable or slightly better to Terramorphic Expanse, then it may replace, supplement, or alternate with the ubiquitous Expanse.
If you're looking to buy at the floor so that you have a bunch for casual decks, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. I'd hold off for a month or so, because copies of all these cards are continuing to flood onto the market. Just remember that the risk of a reprint is (in my considered opinion) pretty high.
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If this card were to increase in price, it would be because of legacy and not EDH. This card is firmly budget territory for EDH but the fact that it gets around blood moon in legacy seems pretty nuts especially since Eldrazi's is the new hotness
I think we agree that this thing's price trajectory will be dramatically affected by reprints. Particularly if it's in a supplemental product. If Barrens were to climb to 3-5 WotC would probably have no qualms about reprinting it whether it fit into a thematic cycle or not.
This chart shows what happened to Command Tower. Notice how it crept up to $3.25 or so at its peak? It was originally in Commander 2013, dodged a reprint in 2014, and that alone doubled its price. It was not until it was reprinted in 2015 and now 2016 that it's price came back down to Earth, and even then, it isn't really much lower than it started.
Admittedly, going from 30 cents to 50 cents is nothing to write home about, but it's still growth. I think the price is lower because the card is not as good as Command Tower to begin with.
I think these charts show us that -- particularly if a year goes by with no reprint, which as I've said before, seems very possible -- Ash Barrens can easily double up. Even if you argue that Command Tower is a superior card over Ash Barrens in commander, which I agree with, the fact remains that Ash Barrens can actually see play outside of that format. Command Tower cannot. I'm not just even talking about some weirdo who plugs one in his sideboard at a Legacy Open as a Blood Moon hedge. Personally, I have a huge box of casual decks* that I keep assembled so my kids and I have something to play with, and I kinda want tons of copies of this to replace Terramorphic Expanse in a lot of those decks. I suspect the fact that Barrens can be played in more formats that Command Tower will more than make up for the fact that in Commander itself, Ash Barrens will not be top-tier fixing.
* = Full disclosure, I'm not looking to speculate on this card. I actually just want to buy more at the floor because of all my casual decks. I snagged 20 copies for 20 dolla during pre-order, which already looks like a good idea since it's up to $1.30 and holding steady. I'm looking to pull the trigger on more, since I think the price is bound to increase.
ALL over TCGP at 85 cents apiece, shipped, so there's NO reason for anyone to buy them at $1.30 like you claimed, thus blowing a hole in your theory that you've already profited (on paper). And if you can buy them for 85 cents from a site every Magic player knows about, that means as a seller you need to meet or beat that price. After 13% eBay fees, the card you spent $1 for you just sold for 74 cents. Ummm...congratulations?
I realize this is a very short time frame since the release, but this card will not be worth anything in the future. It's a common that does nothing more than fix mana in decks where people can't fix mana better in myriads of other ways, the most basic manner of which is by running better lands. If you like the card, by all means buy as many as you need to put in the decks you have. Buying any more than that is a complete waste of time, money and effort. No one is speculating on this, because even if the card doubles in price in the next year, making 80 cents profit per card after fees is so insignificant it's not worth any sane persons time. Who wants to go to the trouble of having to shift 125 copies to make $100?
For those keeping score at home, Ash Barrens has gone back down to $0.93 on TCG and $1.00 on eBay. I suspect we're at the floor (or very nearly there) and now is the time to collect some of these. My theory is they'll be up to $2.00 or $3.00 by next fall, unless we get a reprint.
I'm sure someone will bump this thread to let me know whether I was correct or not!
You know its funny. There are so many other posts in the the other subforums that bash people for speculating on cards, causing bubbles and profiting off other players. Yet here we are in this subforum talking explicitly about which cards we SHOULD be speculating on.
You know its funny. There are so many other posts in the the other subforums that bash people for speculating on cards, causing bubbles and profiting off other players. Yet here we are in this subforum talking explicitly about which cards we SHOULD be speculating on.
Ahh the irony is just insane.
I think that the upfront expectation is that we aren't trying to cause buyouts, we're just trying to get in before the prices rise. Making smart deals for personal use, not market manipulation. There's less of a delineation in the other subforums, I think. When people here start talking about speculating on more than a dozen copies, they tend to get berated just as much.
But yeah, we are kind of going against the grain here.
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Well, I don't think there is a problem with talking about card prices and how they are likely to change. I've noticed that this kind of talk has died down dramatically on MTGSalvation recently, apparently moving behind pay walls on cites like Quiet Speculation and MTGPrice. That is good for exactly nobody. Speculation is a bad thing, but it's going to happen, and the best that a non-speculator can do is try and anticipate just like the speculators do so we can avoid those bubbles.
I made a thread on Ash Barrens specifically because it's such a unique card*: if you have a ton of casual decks, then this is something you probably want a bunch of sitting around. That means that paying a small price for it now will save you money multiple times over in the future. If Ash Barrens goes from $1.00 to $3.00, we're talking an additional $8.00 per playset down the road. That'd hurt if you want to own a few dozen.
Of course, it might be reprinted and do nothing!
* = Perhaps its better to say that it is in a unique PLACE. The effect isn't totally unique, but the printing in a product like this and the fact that it's potentially a 20-of for casuals is not a frequent thing.
We're up to 2.30 and climbing. The initial spike is because it has Cycling, which works really well with many Amonkhet cards. I think this increase will be sticky, however, since this is a very good casual card.
And now we're at 3.24. Its starting to level off; but if HOD has more cycling matters cards, we may see another bump. If this sucker hits 5.00, it's time to dump!
This has been your Ash Barrens public service announcement.
I'm glad you're on board the Ash Barrens train, but actually... I don't think it can reasonably go much higher. Not based on "real demand" anyway. I can say nothing about what herd mentality and the greater fool might to do this card in the short term. (Hence why I said you probably are motivated to "dump" if it hits $5.00 in my last post.)
Here's the thing. This land gets play in two places: (1) casual/EDH; and (2) pauper.
In the first case, it's better than Terramorphic Expanse and a lot of useful, but not super powerful cards. It is not as good as, say, City of Brass in most contexts. So, say you want mana fixing for EDH. If you have unlimited money, then you're just doing fetches and duals and shocks. Let's say you're more of a budget player. You're looking for rainbow lands. Fine, but you'll find that City of Brass and similar cards are around 3-5. It's hard to justify paying more than that for budget fixing, and so it seems like a pretty good long term pressure on how much Ash Barrens can grow.
My take? This card may continue to climb somewhat but between 3-5 is probably a firm limit on its growth as things currently stand. If you see it spike harder then that, DO NOT CHASE. It's speculators trying to buy out the market over the idea that it was not reprinted. Don't be the greater fool.
While I'm not a believer in Ash Barrens, if it doesn't see a reprint until the NEXT Commander set, it could be a $4-$5 card, which is not bad considering it was possible to buy in at 80 cents. Not a huge return $-wise, but certainly %-wise. I will admit, it has climber higher already than I expected (it currently sits at $2.90-$3.00 across many sellers on TCGP).
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Here's a link to the card and it's price history, first: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Commander 2016/Ash Barrens#paper
As you can see, after an initial spike during pre-order season, the card has settled down to about $1.35 per. I think that's too low, and I suspect this is a card that is going to double in price -- at least -- before a reprint. Yep, that's right, I'm putting it right out there and making a prediction. There's always a lot of uncertainty in doing this, but I think the reasoning is sound.
First off, let's recap how good this card is. It's a fetch land / land tutor that is not affected by Blood Moon, Chalice, or counter magic. It very nearly renders all the other cheap fetchlands (Evolving Wilds, Terramophic Expanse, the Panoramas) obsolete. If you need one MORE mana THIS TURN, you can get that by playing it and tapping for colorless. If you need mana of a PARTICULAR COLOR this turn, well, this land can do that for you, too! Just cycle it and play the basic untapped. You can't do both, so obviously it's not as good as the true fetchlands, but the fact that you can do one or the other makes this the cream of the crop in its class. On top of that, it can tap for Eldrazi mana too, if your'e swinging that way. The card is pushed.
Next, let's think about where we would see this card. EDH, of course, is a no-brainer. This card slots right into virtually any EDH deck, certainly those running 3+ colors. Right away, that suggests to me that the floor for this card is Command Tower. Over time, Command Tower has gone up and down but basically settled on $1.60. (https://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Commander 2013 Edition/Command Tower#paper)
That may be the floor, but I don't think that's the ceiling. Command Tower is amazing in Commander, and totally useless outside of that format. It has a built-in limitation on its demand. Ash Barrens has no such limitation. It goes in cubes. It goes in casual decks. It will probably pop up from time to time in Legacy and Vintage as a Blood Moon hedge. And, since it's so generally useful, I suspect people will want lots of these. This all suggests to me that the ceiling is much higher on these cards, and the demand will exceed that for Command Tower.
Now, what's the risk on this thing? I don't think there's any risk of it falling lower than it is right now. A dollar is probably the floor on it while it's in print; perhaps it will dip a tiny bit as we reach maximum supply, but not much. If it keeps getting reprinted in future Commander products, I would expect it to track and exceed Command Tower, which has done the same. If it does not see that level of reprint, I expect it to steadily climb in price.
There's one risk I don't know how to quantify, which is how likely it works its way into a Standard set. It certainly could; cycling comes up now and then as a mechanic, and basic landcycling does likewise. Still, I don't think that's planned for the moment. Why? Well, if this was the only cycling card in Commander 2016, you could suspect that it was a plant from a future set. Instead, we saw a whole "cycle" of cycling cards used to help smooth our the mana of these four color decks. Just like they did in the Alara block. That is, the reason we got this cycling land was that it was designed specifically for this peculiar version of Commander. It could be reprinted, but there's not any good reason to conclude it will be any time soon.
My conclusion -- and I invite you to share your own experiences and comments -- is that this card is poised for growth. If you, like me, have cubes and casual decks that are hungry for better fetches, I suggest gobbling these up now, while it's in print. I suspect you'll regret it later if you do not.
The other thing to bear in mind, like I said before, is that I think this card is a material upgrade to Expanse/Wilds. I can't imagine any circumstance in which this not just a flat out upgrade -- except, perhaps if this was the ONLY card in your opening hand and you needed colored mana right away.
I think you may be underestimating the fact that it doesn't make you have a land come into play tapped. It lets you invest the "tapped land" on a previous turn by paying one colorless. Also it is a much better top deck since it can just be a wastes if your mana is already fixed.
I don't necessarily see it as a staple in 3+ color decks but I think a fair number of them could make use of it, especially non green ones.
Ash Barrens is a solid budget fixer, which is a fine place to be, but that does cap how high it will go. There are plenty of EDH players invested enough to have access to fetch/shock manabases, which get colors reliably enough to not need Terramorphic/Wilds. Barrens fills some holes for the manabases worse than that and is only going to see occasional play in manabases around that level or better. For legacy, you have to ask how often it will be better than just including a basic of whichever color you're most likely to need under a Moon effect. Basic forest is probably as good or better much of the time. The only deck I can think of offhand that could take advantage of Barrens to play around moon is Shardless and I doubt that manabase has space for a situational slow fetch.
I picked up a set of the precons so I have a bunch of these, but I have no immediate plans to use any of them (outside of playing the precons as is). I could see it climbing a little, but I have trouble seeing it break $2 unless it's never reprinted. I also wouldn't be surprised to see this as a regular fixture in future commander precons, which would do a lot of work to keep the price down.
Great! I love card discussion. As a note, card tags are your friend.
The lands are different enough that I think it's fairly hyperbolic to say that it obsoletes the other fetching lands. Primarily, the others trigger landfall twice. Landfall has a lot more support than cycling, in terms of abilities that interact with it. There are certainly cute tricks that work with cycling, but landfall has more support (especially in EDH). I think that, in a vacuum, the others are better (mostly because if you're staring at a one-land hand this isn't going to do you much good). I do like that it taps for <>, but it's not Command Tower - that card provides all the colors you need, right away. Full stop. This gets you one color.
Ah, to the heart of the matter!
I'm generally VERY leery of speccing on commons (in fact, I never do it). It's too easy for WOTC to randomly reprint them and flood the market. A random inclusion in the next Eternal Masters will absolutely crush this card's value. This card is in every deck, so every budget player who buys just one of the decks will get a copy. That means that it's competing for a fraction of the MSRP - remember, these will be sold for MSRP at big box stores - with all the other goodies in the box. If this goes up, literally everything else* has to drop. Otherwise people buy and open and try to sell until there aren't any more buyers, and then the prices drop naturally. Alternatively, if the pries on anything else go up, Ash Barrens might be one of the first to feel the pinch, since it can relieve the pressure on all five decks.
Hopefully this helps you understand where I'm coming from. Happy to discuss further.
* = something has to fall from each deck, not necessarily every card.
As for utility, let's do a comparison to, say Terramorphic.
PROS COMPARED TO TERRMORPHIC
1) Can produce <> right away, allowing you to stay on curve.
2) Can filter one mana into any other color of mana (by fetching the relevant basic) right away.
3) Being an instant-speed Lay of the Land, you can use this to fix your next turn's land drop without missing one. For example, you can leave mana up in a control deck and use this at end of turn to fix your next drop without missing a beat. Also means you can use things like Thran Dynamo to activate this. Not sure why you would, but hey...
4) Multiples (or copies you get back with Life from the Loam or something) can be used multiple times in the same turn.
5) Can fetch through a Blood Moon
CONS COMPARED TO TERRAMORPHIC
1) Barrens give you fewer landfall triggers.
2) Cards that recur lands into play (like Crucible) don't cooperate with Barrens.
3) If Barrens is your only land on turn 1, you cannot use it to fetch the right color immediately.
When you lay it out side by side, I think the right conclusion is that Barrens is, overall, a better card. Primarily, this is because it affects your curve in a more flexible way. It gives you more options. There are particular kinds of decks where Terramorphic works better, sure, but generally speaking you're going to want this one.
As for the fact that it's at common... I mean, yeah it is, but it's common in a supplemental product that will be sold for only the next chunk of the year. If it's reprinted, then the price will certainly stabilize or fall. But, there are clues to suggest it may not be on the radar for quick reprinting. It's part of a cycling theme in these Commander decks. Clearly, they used basic landcycling to help smooth the mana requirements of four color decks.
It is true that they say this, but what I want to know is how could buying a magic card that depicts an ashy wasteland be more true than buying real real estate in real life?
The bigger idea here is that useful lands are almost always going to have some demand. Good mana fixing is needed by practically everybody, and so fixing settles at various places along the price point to serve the whole market. It's unusual for a decent mana fixer to be truly bulk, even if it's lower-tier fixing. (See: filter lands, pain lands, even the Invasion filter cycle we got some reprints from in COM16)
Of course, as we see with Terramorphic Expanse and Evolving Wilds, you can certainly get there if Wizards reprints the card into a fine powder. Also, of course, printing truly terrible lands like the CIPT dual lands from Zendikar breaks the rule, too.
Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying.
So, I'm going to say that your first point is right. It does seem like Ash Barrens is generally better than Terramorphic Expanse. It's not head-and-shoulders above the rest (which is why it's still a budget card), but it still seems like a solid budget card.
But that brings me to point two. When I look at this year's decks, what do I see? 5x Command Tower. 5x Commander's Sphere. 2x Opal Palace. AKA, all the common mana-fixing cards that were introduced in previous years. If Ash Barrens is good enough at its job, it's going to join that list of cards as "We just print these every year" mana fixing. Yes, basic landcycling was used to help smooth out the awkwardness of a four-color manabase with budget duals, but that's not to say that they won't be willing to just jam it in like Terramorphic Expanse every year that they make multicolor decks. That is the sad and glorious reality of its future - it doesn't suck, so it'll be reprinted frequently.
Even so...
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Commander 2013 Edition/Command Tower#paper
This chart shows what happened to Command Tower. Notice how it crept up to $3.25 or so at its peak? It was originally in Commander 2013, dodged a reprint in 2014, and that alone doubled its price. It was not until it was reprinted in 2015 and now 2016 that it's price came back down to Earth, and even then, it isn't really much lower than it started.
Opal Palace shows a similar trajectory, even with reprints:
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Commander 2013 Edition/Opal Palace#paper
Admittedly, going from 30 cents to 50 cents is nothing to write home about, but it's still growth. I think the price is lower because the card is not as good as Command Tower to begin with.
I think these charts show us that -- particularly if a year goes by with no reprint, which as I've said before, seems very possible -- Ash Barrens can easily double up. Even if you argue that Command Tower is a superior card over Ash Barrens in commander, which I agree with, the fact remains that Ash Barrens can actually see play outside of that format. Command Tower cannot. I'm not just even talking about some weirdo who plugs one in his sideboard at a Legacy Open as a Blood Moon hedge. Personally, I have a huge box of casual decks* that I keep assembled so my kids and I have something to play with, and I kinda want tons of copies of this to replace Terramorphic Expanse in a lot of those decks. I suspect the fact that Barrens can be played in more formats that Command Tower will more than make up for the fact that in Commander itself, Ash Barrens will not be top-tier fixing.
* = Full disclosure, I'm not looking to speculate on this card. I actually just want to buy more at the floor because of all my casual decks. I snagged 20 copies for 20 dolla during pre-order, which already looks like a good idea since it's up to $1.30 and holding steady. I'm looking to pull the trigger on more, since I think the price is bound to increase.
If you're looking to buy at the floor so that you have a bunch for casual decks, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. I'd hold off for a month or so, because copies of all these cards are continuing to flood onto the market. Just remember that the risk of a reprint is (in my considered opinion) pretty high.
ALL over TCGP at 85 cents apiece, shipped, so there's NO reason for anyone to buy them at $1.30 like you claimed, thus blowing a hole in your theory that you've already profited (on paper). And if you can buy them for 85 cents from a site every Magic player knows about, that means as a seller you need to meet or beat that price. After 13% eBay fees, the card you spent $1 for you just sold for 74 cents. Ummm...congratulations?
I realize this is a very short time frame since the release, but this card will not be worth anything in the future. It's a common that does nothing more than fix mana in decks where people can't fix mana better in myriads of other ways, the most basic manner of which is by running better lands. If you like the card, by all means buy as many as you need to put in the decks you have. Buying any more than that is a complete waste of time, money and effort. No one is speculating on this, because even if the card doubles in price in the next year, making 80 cents profit per card after fees is so insignificant it's not worth any sane persons time. Who wants to go to the trouble of having to shift 125 copies to make $100?
I'm sure someone will bump this thread to let me know whether I was correct or not!
Ahh the irony is just insane.
I think that the upfront expectation is that we aren't trying to cause buyouts, we're just trying to get in before the prices rise. Making smart deals for personal use, not market manipulation. There's less of a delineation in the other subforums, I think. When people here start talking about speculating on more than a dozen copies, they tend to get berated just as much.
But yeah, we are kind of going against the grain here.
I made a thread on Ash Barrens specifically because it's such a unique card*: if you have a ton of casual decks, then this is something you probably want a bunch of sitting around. That means that paying a small price for it now will save you money multiple times over in the future. If Ash Barrens goes from $1.00 to $3.00, we're talking an additional $8.00 per playset down the road. That'd hurt if you want to own a few dozen.
Of course, it might be reprinted and do nothing!
* = Perhaps its better to say that it is in a unique PLACE. The effect isn't totally unique, but the printing in a product like this and the fact that it's potentially a 20-of for casuals is not a frequent thing.
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Commander 2016/Ash Barrens#paper
We're up to 2.30 and climbing. The initial spike is because it has Cycling, which works really well with many Amonkhet cards. I think this increase will be sticky, however, since this is a very good casual card.
This has been your Ash Barrens public service announcement.
Here's the thing. This land gets play in two places: (1) casual/EDH; and (2) pauper.
In the first case, it's better than Terramorphic Expanse and a lot of useful, but not super powerful cards. It is not as good as, say, City of Brass in most contexts. So, say you want mana fixing for EDH. If you have unlimited money, then you're just doing fetches and duals and shocks. Let's say you're more of a budget player. You're looking for rainbow lands. Fine, but you'll find that City of Brass and similar cards are around 3-5. It's hard to justify paying more than that for budget fixing, and so it seems like a pretty good long term pressure on how much Ash Barrens can grow.
In the second case, how big is the pauper scene and how much does that improve prices? Ash Barrens is a Pauper staple, to be sure. But, Pauper decks do not really seem to support huge prices on cards. See http://magicgatheringstrat.com/2015/06/the-price-of-pauper/ and https://www.mtggoldfish.com/format-staples/pauper. I am very skeptical that there is enough pauper demand period to push this too high.
My take? This card may continue to climb somewhat but between 3-5 is probably a firm limit on its growth as things currently stand. If you see it spike harder then that, DO NOT CHASE. It's speculators trying to buy out the market over the idea that it was not reprinted. Don't be the greater fool.
But, I did expect to see it in C17.
While I'm not a believer in Ash Barrens, if it doesn't see a reprint until the NEXT Commander set, it could be a $4-$5 card, which is not bad considering it was possible to buy in at 80 cents. Not a huge return $-wise, but certainly %-wise. I will admit, it has climber higher already than I expected (it currently sits at $2.90-$3.00 across many sellers on TCGP).