I'm not including Kaladesh because it feels like the Magic sets we had w/ OG Ravnica to the return to Innistrad. Also not including the Expeditions from BFZ block. I am referring to the overall value of commons, uncommons, rares, and mythics.
The overall value of the sets from RTR block to BFZ block, overall, feel as if there is a dip in overall value.
Im not sure about everywhere but i have noticed a sharp increase in the number of newer players since the Theros block, If this is replicated across the globe; perhaps the increased demand for boosters has lowered the average price of the over supplied commons and uncommons.
I don't know about RTR through ORI or SOI bblock but the expeditions and the following masterpiece series' will drastically reduce the cost/sale value of commons and uncommons because they increase the number of boosters opened.
I'm not including Kaladesh because it feels like the Magic sets we had w/ OG Ravnica to the return to Innistrad. Also not including BFZ w/ the Expeditions. I am referring to the overall value of commons, uncommons, rares, and mythics.
The overall value of the sets from RTR block to BFZ block, overall, feel as if there is a dip in overall value.
Notice how the commons & uncommons from the blocks of RTR to BFZ. The value of a set does not just lie in the rares & mythics.
Now, why is that? Was something going on w/ the design teams then where they didn't want the meta to be as strong as it was?
Newer sets are still quite available, so the prices on random C/U cards can't jump. Also, INN/RTR represented another large jump in the Magic-playing population. So if you're comparing the newer sets to older sets, there are a lot more cards around and that pushes prices down a bit.
There's no conspiracy. Age just works like that.
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I'm not including Kaladesh because it feels like the Magic sets we had w/ OG Ravnica to the return to Innistrad. Also not including BFZ w/ the Expeditions. I am referring to the overall value of commons, uncommons, rares, and mythics.
The overall value of the sets from RTR block to BFZ block, overall, feel as if there is a dip in overall value.
Notice how the commons & uncommons from the blocks of RTR to BFZ. The value of a set does not just lie in the rares & mythics.
Now, why is that? Was something going on w/ the design teams then where they didn't want the meta to be as strong as it was?
Newer sets are still quite available, so the prices on random C/U cards can't jump. Also, INN/RTR represented another large jump in the Magic-playing population. So if you're comparing the newer sets to older sets, there are a lot more cards around and that pushes prices down a bit.
There's no conspiracy. Age just works like that.
So, essentially, over time, some of the good commons/uncommons might still rise in value, w/ scarcity coming into play? W/ such large print runs, one wonders if the days of the $2+ common is gone.
I'm not including Kaladesh because it feels like the Magic sets we had w/ OG Ravnica to the return to Innistrad. Also not including BFZ w/ the Expeditions. I am referring to the overall value of commons, uncommons, rares, and mythics.
The overall value of the sets from RTR block to BFZ block, overall, feel as if there is a dip in overall value.
Notice how the commons & uncommons from the blocks of RTR to BFZ. The value of a set does not just lie in the rares & mythics.
Now, why is that? Was something going on w/ the design teams then where they didn't want the meta to be as strong as it was?
Newer sets are still quite available, so the prices on random C/U cards can't jump. Also, INN/RTR represented another large jump in the Magic-playing population. So if you're comparing the newer sets to older sets, there are a lot more cards around and that pushes prices down a bit.
There's no conspiracy. Age just works like that.
So, essentially, over time, some of the good commons/uncommons might still rise in value, w/ scarcity coming into play? W/ such large print runs, one wonders if the days of the $2+ common is gone.
Well, that depends on the population. If the game has another explosion, then theoretically you could get "power commons" again. However, "power commons" are never recognized in their time, because there are enough to go around. It's only years later, after the set is out of print and all the Modern players realize "Oh hey, I need Card X for my Modern deck," and they have to buy it, that commons and uncommons start to command decent prices.
However, Gutterstorm raises a great point (and I think that I just watched that episode of FMAB last night!) - with the introduction of Masterpieces, literally the entire rest of the set gets pushed down in value as people open product to chase the bling. I'm pretty confident in saying that yes, the day of the $2 common is past. What has to happen to make commons valuable again is:
1) Playerbase expansion. It has to be huge, too, not just gradual.
2) New format. We need a new format, maybe "Postmodern", that uses cards that were previously chaff. Might of Old Krosa, for example, was a junk card before Modern existed. Now it's Infect's best friend.
3) Masterpiece crash. They don't ALL have to crash, WOTC just needs to pick a slate of real stinkers that nobody wants.
I don't think that we're going to get all three of those anytime soon. Which means that if you want to come to my house and pick up a couple boxes of commons/uncommons, feel free
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Maybe the fringe (& new) "Frontier" will be the new "Postmodern." Another separator could be sets w/ rares w/ the oval holo-stamp. But I think "Frontier" will be the only hope for a format between Modern and Standard, but that may take 2 to 3 years to catch on.
Frontier is the separation of the newest border which includes the new R/M hologram. I had thoughts that maybe they were going to start something with the new border, but it looks like it'll become an unofficial thing first.
I think an Extended revival makes more sense than Frontier. It avoids some of the problems that Modern has due to the fact that problematic cards and decks will eventually rotate and the risk of printing something that busts an older card is reduced by the finite card pool. Extended was originally an eight year rotation, under that model everything before Shards Block would be gone. That means no Aether Vial, Shoal, Through the Breech, Clique, Bitterblossom, Cryptic, Lantern, Skred, Lava Spike, and Pacts, among other notable modern cards. The current meta would be strong, but radically different from the current Modern scene, and probably more affordable. Path, Bloodbraid, Terminate, and Heirarch would be in the Fall 2017 rotation.
This seems like a more sustainable solution than adding a fourth non-rotating format that Wizards would have to micromanage.
So, hypothetically, if Frontier or Extended becomes adopted, what are some good spec targets for commons that are 25 cents or less and uncommons that are under a 50 cents?
I know I didn't want to add Kaldesh to this post, but I do see some great targets for value:
Do any of you actually remember old extended? The one and I do mean the only reason anyone ever played it was because it was a good entry point to the Pro Tour. It was horrid, why would WOTC want to resurrect such a despised format?
What they really have to do is make Modern Masters a yearly thing. It is just ridiculous that modern has to wait two years before any new supply of staples happen. They can produce ten commander pre cons by the time they get one set for the modern players.
So, hypothetically, if Frontier or Extended becomes adopted, what are some good spec targets for commons that are 25 cents or less and uncommons that are under a 50 cents?
I know I didn't want to add Kaldesh to this post, but I do see some great targets for value:
Speculating on Modern uncommons is foolish. Seriously, the reprint venues are too numerous.
Can't agree enough with this statement. Additionally, you're talking about years of waiting for a power common/uncommon to take off and even then your gains won't be very much.
For example the most expensive common printed in the last 5 to 7 years is what? I'd guess Gitaxian Probe and it's only a $3 or $4 card. Your avenue to make any real money on an investment like that is virtually nil because nobody is going to want 1000 copies. If it gets reprinted it'll go back to a 10 or 20 cent common and everything you've done would be for not.
Speculating on Modern uncommons is foolish. Seriously, the reprint venues are too numerous.
Can't agree enough with this statement. Additionally, you're talking about years of waiting for a power common/uncommon to take off and even then your gains won't be very much.
For example the most expensive common printed in the last 5 to 7 years is what? I'd guess Gitaxian Probe and it's only a $3 or $4 card. Your avenue to make any real money on an investment like that is virtually nil because nobody is going to want 1000 copies. If it gets reprinted it'll go back to a 10 or 20 cent common and everything you've done would be for not.
The history of Smash to Smithereens proves this. The only thing that makes this a little bit less likely is the removal of the Core Sets. There will now be one less avenue to reprint cards that do not make thematic sense in the current standard formats. There still is not standard sets but those can be hit or miss.
Yeah okay nothing as busted as aether vial but let's be real...that's an anomaly.
I think the sets do feel slightly more top heavy now? I haven't really seen any big swings in sleeper cards that actually stick post rotation. Like drana, liberator of malakir didn't see huge movement because the vampires of SOI didn't feel that robust. Especially not with coco floating around. risen executioner was a joke. Whereas you look at kalitas, traitor of ghet and his value never really fell much after he started to climb. People saw the card was good and a lot of the pack value just shifted accordingly.
I think preorder prices are such that a large retailer can still make decent money off it...the settled price for standard staples is typically just that inflated (I'm looking at you smuggler's copter).
I think just as masterpieces, the generic rates and mythics you can pull also greatly determine the sets lower rarity price points. I regularly see playsets of commons/uncommons from new sets on eBay for pretty cheap if you want the whole sets worth.
Speculating on Modern uncommons is foolish. Seriously, the reprint venues are too numerous.
Can't agree enough with this statement. Additionally, you're talking about years of waiting for a power common/uncommon to take off and even then your gains won't be very much.
For example the most expensive common printed in the last 5 to 7 years is what? I'd guess Gitaxian Probe and it's only a $3 or $4 card. Your avenue to make any real money on an investment like that is virtually nil because nobody is going to want 1000 copies. If it gets reprinted it'll go back to a 10 or 20 cent common and everything you've done would be for not.
I was so annoyed when the announced Smash in Origins. I had just spend a weekend drafting about 40 Smashs in MM15 drafts at GP (not that they were worth that much, like 0.5 at the time).
The history of Smash to Smithereens proves this. The only thing that makes this a little bit less likely is the removal of the Core Sets. There will now be one less avenue to reprint cards that do not make thematic sense in the current standard formats. There still is not standard sets but those can be hit or miss.
If you compare the original post that was replied to and the reply, you will see that the following was added just above the other person's quote:
I was so annoyed when the announced Smash in Origins. I had just spend a weekend drafting about 40 Smashs in MM15 drafts at GP (not that they were worth that much, like 0.5 at the time).
It took me a sec to notice the difference as well.
Expeditions and the Masterpieces have killed standard prices. Since they announced this will be a thing every set they have introduced a new rarity above mythic. Rares no longer hold any value at all past the weekend of Pro Tours. Mythics barely crack $10. Those few that do either hold strong at 10 for their life or have a huge gap of $20-40 (maybe 1 a set). So basically you end up with 2-5 cards worth over $10 and the rest are bulk. The rotation schedule also played a huge part in how fast cards fall in price. WotC has since gone back to the 2 year rotation but the damage is done. Between the faster rotation and expeditions I saw my standard collection drop $1000 in 2 weeks. Sold it all as fast and low as I could before it fell even more (and it did).
At this point there is no profit in the game for players. Only profit to be had is left to the stores selling packs. The problem is no one is going to be buying packs outside of draft and sealed so in the end WotC will lose money. Eventually it will catch up to the distributors and LGS.
On a side note digital TCG are coming up left and right. MTG is like the newspaper industry trying to compete in the digital world. MGTO has been around longer than any other digital product on the market right now and is one of the worst possible. I've been in magic for over 20 years but its time is up. It does sadden me.
I think Magic is in/headed for a recession. Anecdotally, I haven't seen player turnout so depressed since I came back for AVR. Local store ran a PPTQ and only 12 people showed up. Another one about an hour drive away barely scraped together 8. The saturday standard showdown promotion was a miserable failure locally. My LGS feels WOTC overprinted the Planchase anthology and now he's stuck with so many of them that he can't sell for $90. There seems to be zero financial reasons to buy standard cards - hardly any of it is any good eternally, and while most of it is cheap, the really expensive cards like Gideon, Liliana and Avacyn are only high because of standard demand.
People are going to learn the hard way that finance is a huge part of this game. When cards only fall instead of rise in price, enthusiasm wanes. Big time. When you never get your Draft $$$ back in card value, drafting enthusiasm wanes. You can talk about the purity of the game all you want, but people like thinking their cards are worth money. Weak standard combined with WOTC signalling hard that reprints are going to come hard and fast - the second run of EMA and the huge run of MM15 are solid indicators. No more profit for individuals and stores, Wizards is taking their cut on the secondary market (Anthologies are their way of taking a slice of that pie too). I have no faith after that, I'd rather be holding real stock at this point.
Lots of commander players, but they don't drive pack sales. I hope I don't regret cashing out of my collection, but I'm less conflicted about it than I was a month ago. I'm keeping some standard staples and I'll stay abreast of FNM standard - you don't need fancy cards to win there.
Plus WOTC the company sucks - I'm glad to not be spending money with them.
This is exactly it. I came back to Magic during ZEN. That break I took was the only break I have taken since I started playing in 1996. I have been making $10k a year online for just a few hours each week. I kept it under 10k because of taxes. I could have done much more but didn't want the headache. Soon as Modern Masters came I knew the party was over. I divested everything in that format. Then, standard got wrecked but intentions and expeditions. At this point the only value left is sealed product and reserve list. Even the reserve list isn't safe. SCG is the only thing propping up reserve list prices. Legacy has been on SCG's chopping block for many years.
As the popularity goes down even vintage collectibles are going to collapse. MTG is a great way to park some money but it may be too risky now.
I agree with everything you guys said, and i also feel WotC is so desperate that they created Expeditions and Masterpieces to force sales to go up, but it won't hold for long, specially if they release 10 different products each year.
But i'm not so pessimistic. Many times people have said that Magic is gonna die, that they sold everything because the game is over and don't want to lose their investments. But time and time again they've been wrong, and those who bought in a depressed market end up making a lot of money.
Magic is too good of a game to die. Pokemon is on the rise now, there's Yugioh, there's hearthstone, there's FoW, but none of them is as good as Magic (i played pokemon and a little yugi). The game being that good means that can be affected by bad decisions and greedyness, but ultimately a couple of good decisions bring thousands of players into the game and the player base increases and prices explodes. Everything is circular, this has happened before and will happen in the future. I'm confident that Magic will recover and this is a good time to pick up some dirt cheap cards.
I agree with everything you guys said, and i also feel WotC is so desperate that they created Expeditions and Masterpieces to force sales to go up, but it won't hold for long, specially if they release 10 different products each year.
But i'm not so pessimistic. Many times people have said that Magic is gonna die, that they sold everything because the game is over and don't want to lose their investments. But time and time again they've been wrong, and those who bought in a depressed market end up making a lot of money.
Magic is too good of a game to die. Pokemon is on the rise now, there's Yugioh, there's hearthstone, there's FoW, but none of them is as good as Magic (i played pokemon and a little yugi). The game being that good means that can be affected by bad decisions and greedyness, but ultimately a couple of good decisions bring thousands of players into the game and the player base increases and prices explodes. Everything is circular, this has happened before and will happen in the future. I'm confident that Magic will recover and this is a good time to pick up some dirt cheap cards.
In the past I couldn't agree with you more. The difference today is mobile games and phones are only going to get stronger. MTG has stood the test of time for sure. I still think it is a superior game to anything that exist today. That doesn't really mean anything though. When you look at the digital arena MTG is not the future.
My kids picked up hearthstone and figured it out quickly. No they aren't going to be top teir pros but that isn't the point. Fact is Hearthstone's RNG is really gambling during a game. It is addictive in nature. Combine that with an easy to learn game, can play on tablets, phones, and PC. You got yourself a winner. Now lets take twitch into account. On a any given day Hearthstone top channel at any given time is more players than MTG during the pro tour coverage. That isn't even counting all the other streams happening just the top stream. MTG does not translate well as a spectator. So on every single front MTG is losing.
The other factor is I have to go to a LGS to play MTG. I know may people hold on to the social aspect of the game. I am too one of those people. Since I haven't played since the beginning of the year I miss many friends I only had interactions with at my LGS. LGS are not cheap to maintain. With the huge population drop this year it is going to be rough. If you listened to some podcast about running a LGS they do talk about MTG explosive growth over the past 5 years. Many of them even talk about when it is going to end.
This new generation. They could care less. They have all the social interaction they want from social networking and school. MTG is not poised to grab the next generation. On a cost note I can give my kids $50 worth of packs in heartstone and make just about everything they want. The cost difference is another aspect that will keep MTG from growing.
If WotC keeps up their current reprint policy I will not be sad about selling my collection. I sold everything not on the reserve list. Right now there is a huge jump in reserve list prices but that is because everyone is doing the same as me. When that demand teeters off in about 2 years I might sell out that as well.
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The overall value of the sets from RTR block to BFZ block, overall, feel as if there is a dip in overall value.
Look at the big picture here: http://mtg.dawnglare.com/?p=modern & http://mtg.dawnglare.com/
Notice how the commons & uncommons from the blocks of RTR to BFZ. The value of a set does not just lie in the rares & mythics.
Now, why is that? Was something going on w/ the design teams then where they didn't want the meta to be as strong as it was?
https://archidekt.com/user/71716
Newer sets are still quite available, so the prices on random C/U cards can't jump. Also, INN/RTR represented another large jump in the Magic-playing population. So if you're comparing the newer sets to older sets, there are a lot more cards around and that pushes prices down a bit.
There's no conspiracy. Age just works like that.
So, essentially, over time, some of the good commons/uncommons might still rise in value, w/ scarcity coming into play? W/ such large print runs, one wonders if the days of the $2+ common is gone.
Well, that depends on the population. If the game has another explosion, then theoretically you could get "power commons" again. However, "power commons" are never recognized in their time, because there are enough to go around. It's only years later, after the set is out of print and all the Modern players realize "Oh hey, I need Card X for my Modern deck," and they have to buy it, that commons and uncommons start to command decent prices.
However, Gutterstorm raises a great point (and I think that I just watched that episode of FMAB last night!) - with the introduction of Masterpieces, literally the entire rest of the set gets pushed down in value as people open product to chase the bling. I'm pretty confident in saying that yes, the day of the $2 common is past. What has to happen to make commons valuable again is:
1) Playerbase expansion. It has to be huge, too, not just gradual.
2) New format. We need a new format, maybe "Postmodern", that uses cards that were previously chaff. Might of Old Krosa, for example, was a junk card before Modern existed. Now it's Infect's best friend.
3) Masterpiece crash. They don't ALL have to crash, WOTC just needs to pick a slate of real stinkers that nobody wants.
I don't think that we're going to get all three of those anytime soon. Which means that if you want to come to my house and pick up a couple boxes of commons/uncommons, feel free
This seems like a more sustainable solution than adding a fourth non-rotating format that Wizards would have to micromanage.
Pauper: Burn
Modern: Burn
Legacy: Burn
EDH: Marath, Will of the Wild - Ramp/Combo | Anafenza the Foremost - French | Uril, the Miststalker - Voltron | Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury - Goodstuff
Ghost Council of Orzhov - Tokens | Lazav, Dimir Mastermind - Control | Isamaru, Hound of Konda - Tiny Leaders
I know I didn't want to add Kaldesh to this post, but I do see some great targets for value:
Aerial Responder
Aether Meltdown
Select for Inspection
Essence Extraction
Built to Smash
Inventor's Apprentice
Arborback Stomper
Longtusk Cub
Contraband Kingpin
Unlicensed Disintegration
There are already a few getting attention like Filigree Familiar and Harnessed Lightning, hence why I didn't add them to the above list.
I do see the above cards jumping a little bit after they enter the Modern market.
What they really have to do is make Modern Masters a yearly thing. It is just ridiculous that modern has to wait two years before any new supply of staples happen. They can produce ten commander pre cons by the time they get one set for the modern players.
Speculating on Modern uncommons is foolish. Seriously, the reprint venues are too numerous.
Can't agree enough with this statement. Additionally, you're talking about years of waiting for a power common/uncommon to take off and even then your gains won't be very much.
For example the most expensive common printed in the last 5 to 7 years is what? I'd guess Gitaxian Probe and it's only a $3 or $4 card. Your avenue to make any real money on an investment like that is virtually nil because nobody is going to want 1000 copies. If it gets reprinted it'll go back to a 10 or 20 cent common and everything you've done would be for not.
The history of Smash to Smithereens proves this. The only thing that makes this a little bit less likely is the removal of the Core Sets. There will now be one less avenue to reprint cards that do not make thematic sense in the current standard formats. There still is not standard sets but those can be hit or miss.
Yeah okay nothing as busted as aether vial but let's be real...that's an anomaly.
I think the sets do feel slightly more top heavy now? I haven't really seen any big swings in sleeper cards that actually stick post rotation. Like drana, liberator of malakir didn't see huge movement because the vampires of SOI didn't feel that robust. Especially not with coco floating around. risen executioner was a joke. Whereas you look at kalitas, traitor of ghet and his value never really fell much after he started to climb. People saw the card was good and a lot of the pack value just shifted accordingly.
I think preorder prices are such that a large retailer can still make decent money off it...the settled price for standard staples is typically just that inflated (I'm looking at you smuggler's copter).
I think just as masterpieces, the generic rates and mythics you can pull also greatly determine the sets lower rarity price points. I regularly see playsets of commons/uncommons from new sets on eBay for pretty cheap if you want the whole sets worth.
I was so annoyed when the announced Smash in Origins. I had just spend a weekend drafting about 40 Smashs in MM15 drafts at GP (not that they were worth that much, like 0.5 at the time).
It took me a sec to notice the difference as well.
At this point there is no profit in the game for players. Only profit to be had is left to the stores selling packs. The problem is no one is going to be buying packs outside of draft and sealed so in the end WotC will lose money. Eventually it will catch up to the distributors and LGS.
On a side note digital TCG are coming up left and right. MTG is like the newspaper industry trying to compete in the digital world. MGTO has been around longer than any other digital product on the market right now and is one of the worst possible. I've been in magic for over 20 years but its time is up. It does sadden me.
People are going to learn the hard way that finance is a huge part of this game. When cards only fall instead of rise in price, enthusiasm wanes. Big time. When you never get your Draft $$$ back in card value, drafting enthusiasm wanes. You can talk about the purity of the game all you want, but people like thinking their cards are worth money. Weak standard combined with WOTC signalling hard that reprints are going to come hard and fast - the second run of EMA and the huge run of MM15 are solid indicators. No more profit for individuals and stores, Wizards is taking their cut on the secondary market (Anthologies are their way of taking a slice of that pie too). I have no faith after that, I'd rather be holding real stock at this point.
Lots of commander players, but they don't drive pack sales. I hope I don't regret cashing out of my collection, but I'm less conflicted about it than I was a month ago. I'm keeping some standard staples and I'll stay abreast of FNM standard - you don't need fancy cards to win there.
Plus WOTC the company sucks - I'm glad to not be spending money with them.
As the popularity goes down even vintage collectibles are going to collapse. MTG is a great way to park some money but it may be too risky now.
But i'm not so pessimistic. Many times people have said that Magic is gonna die, that they sold everything because the game is over and don't want to lose their investments. But time and time again they've been wrong, and those who bought in a depressed market end up making a lot of money.
Magic is too good of a game to die. Pokemon is on the rise now, there's Yugioh, there's hearthstone, there's FoW, but none of them is as good as Magic (i played pokemon and a little yugi). The game being that good means that can be affected by bad decisions and greedyness, but ultimately a couple of good decisions bring thousands of players into the game and the player base increases and prices explodes. Everything is circular, this has happened before and will happen in the future. I'm confident that Magic will recover and this is a good time to pick up some dirt cheap cards.
In the past I couldn't agree with you more. The difference today is mobile games and phones are only going to get stronger. MTG has stood the test of time for sure. I still think it is a superior game to anything that exist today. That doesn't really mean anything though. When you look at the digital arena MTG is not the future.
My kids picked up hearthstone and figured it out quickly. No they aren't going to be top teir pros but that isn't the point. Fact is Hearthstone's RNG is really gambling during a game. It is addictive in nature. Combine that with an easy to learn game, can play on tablets, phones, and PC. You got yourself a winner. Now lets take twitch into account. On a any given day Hearthstone top channel at any given time is more players than MTG during the pro tour coverage. That isn't even counting all the other streams happening just the top stream. MTG does not translate well as a spectator. So on every single front MTG is losing.
The other factor is I have to go to a LGS to play MTG. I know may people hold on to the social aspect of the game. I am too one of those people. Since I haven't played since the beginning of the year I miss many friends I only had interactions with at my LGS. LGS are not cheap to maintain. With the huge population drop this year it is going to be rough. If you listened to some podcast about running a LGS they do talk about MTG explosive growth over the past 5 years. Many of them even talk about when it is going to end.
This new generation. They could care less. They have all the social interaction they want from social networking and school. MTG is not poised to grab the next generation. On a cost note I can give my kids $50 worth of packs in heartstone and make just about everything they want. The cost difference is another aspect that will keep MTG from growing.
If WotC keeps up their current reprint policy I will not be sad about selling my collection. I sold everything not on the reserve list. Right now there is a huge jump in reserve list prices but that is because everyone is doing the same as me. When that demand teeters off in about 2 years I might sell out that as well.