Hey guys. Its been a LONG times since I played standard (Scars-Inn Block) but I know I'll need to pick up the newest fast lands for modern. When Fastlands were used in standard, they were around 3-5 bucks each. But there were also fetches being used, and modern didnt exist. So to people who have more of an understanding of what standard demand will be than me. What do you think these lands will go for? When will they be their most expensive? When would be the best time to pick them up During their standard life? Will they drop like a rock come rotation or hold their value due to modern?
Kaladesh has some great mythics, making me suspect value will concentrate there. Fast lambs are among the best duals, being bad really only in midrange or control decks, and the enemy colors are better than the allies ones. I think thesee are solid pickups at sub $5. If they ever got near $2.00, I would have a new hobby buying them in all my spare time.
I suspect they will be at loweSt price a month after release, except whichever are in winning decks. Chandra may be good enough that the red ones probably pop forest. Particularly red-blue. Some they are modern playable, I do not expect much of a rotation drop.
The Izzet and the golgari ones will be the most important for modern. If you can get them for 5 - 8 bucks buy all day long. They will easily be 10 - 15 bucks in a few years time.
The Scars copies were 2-3 dollars for a long, long time - probably even after they rotated. Blackcleave Cliffs really only spiked once people realized how much more efficient it was in aggro decks, well after it was gone from Standard.
In that respect, I don't think Standard will affect the price of the Kaladesh copies too much. Spirebluff Canal is pretty much guaranteed to be worth dollars thanks to Izzet's current place in Modern. I'd expect Inspiring Vantage to also be worth a little more, given that Boros is traditionally an aggro colour combination that appreciates efficient duals like this. I suspect the other three are going to be back in the $2-3 range for a while (unless someone can build a suitably aggro concoction in those colours in Standard, I guess).
I still think you will be able to get these cards for $2-3 each during their print run. The value in this set skyrocketed with the Expeditions / Masterpieces / Inventions / Pokemon Rarity cards, in the sense that stores will buy a lot more product as long as the EV of a case is high. That'll mean more lands on the market. There doesn't have to be an explosion in interest to make this happen.
For the UR one, I can see several of the decks in those colors wanting it. Storm likes quick access to both colors, jeskai can set up bolts/counters more easily, delver decks are already low to the ground. There is modern demand here.
UG appears to slot into infect at first glance, but fetching is critical to hitting timely become immense casts. I don't see a need for a full playset here and the deck is fairly land lite. There are UG elf variants that are more kitchen table funsie decks that run things like beck // call - I doubt any demand will come from these. Temur lists are topping off at higher CMC making these slightly less desireable. I see lower modern demand here.
The RW is very important for several aggro shells. Naya, RW control, potentially jeskai to hit path/bolt mana early all feel like early contenders here. There is moderate demand for land but clifftop retreat is still pretty cheap and I almost never see it in budget lists. arid mesa also is less than some of the other enemy fetches despite the importance in burn/zoo/etc lists.
The GB is harder to evaluate for me. Jund wants access to double black and green, but early red/black is critical for discard/bolt. I dont think it'll oust the RB fastland and some lists aren't even on 4 of those. I do see jund lists run twilight mire for Lilly and courser of kruphix though, so take with a grain of salt. Elves have gilt-leaf palace so that's your price ceiling on demand from that deck. The mana base is already very tight there. Abzan gains a lot from this and the WB dual, and with the recent interest at worlds and grim flayer showing up more this could be more desireable. Abzan coco wants early access to green, so this may be a real option here. I see higher demand for GB.
The WB is an auto include in token lists I would imagine. Esper isn't looking to play a short game so it has better options, and is already on 4 celestial colonades which would slow the deck down too much. As mentioned before, Abzan will want this land in some capacity. I think there's an okay amount of demand for this one.
TRON, affinity, bant retreat, bang eldrazi, goryo's veng, scapeshift variants, merfolk, goblins, allies, slivers, and plenty others all feel like they are unaffected by these.
As for standard...
UR spells is staying in almost its entirety.
GB delirium is staying in almost its entirety.
WB control feels strong and they have a ton of sweep effects available to them.
RW looks very aggressively slanted and will be a requirement for this deck. Maybe a RW human/artifact variant. That new 1 drop that gets +2/+1 with another artifact in play on T1 followed by a thraben inspector looks juicy. The land will be good here.
In summary:
I think GB an UR have the highest chance of increasing from $5 a piece sooner than later, UG I wouldn't expect them to climb over say $7ish. The GW and RB fetches bottomed out around what, $10-12? These are. It fetches, good for sure, but let's be real here.
The rest I think you'll be able to pick up for sub $3-4 after the first month. The pressure of strong mythics (have you seen Chandra's pre order price?) and the kaladesh inventions will force pack sales and offer ample supply.
I suspect they will be at loweSt price a month after release, except whichever are in winning decks. Chandra may be good enough that the red ones probably pop forest. Particularly red-blue. Some they are modern playable, I do not expect much of a rotation drop.
4 of the 5 lands are pre-ordering below $5 and dropping with 3 more weeks before real supply hits the market.
In that respect, I don't think Standard will affect the price of the Kaladesh copies too much. Spirebluff Canal is pretty much guaranteed to be worth dollars thanks to Izzet's current place in Modern. I'd expect Inspiring Vantage to also be worth a little more, given that Boros is traditionally an aggro colour combination that appreciates efficient duals like this. I suspect the other three are going to be back in the $2-3 range for a while (unless someone can build a suitably aggro concoction in those colours in Standard, I guess).
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UG appears to slot into infect at first glance, but fetching is critical to hitting timely become immense casts. I don't see a need for a full playset here and the deck is fairly land lite. There are UG elf variants that are more kitchen table funsie decks that run things like beck // call - I doubt any demand will come from these. Temur lists are topping off at higher CMC making these slightly less desireable. I see lower modern demand here.
The RW is very important for several aggro shells. Naya, RW control, potentially jeskai to hit path/bolt mana early all feel like early contenders here. There is moderate demand for land but clifftop retreat is still pretty cheap and I almost never see it in budget lists. arid mesa also is less than some of the other enemy fetches despite the importance in burn/zoo/etc lists.
The GB is harder to evaluate for me. Jund wants access to double black and green, but early red/black is critical for discard/bolt. I dont think it'll oust the RB fastland and some lists aren't even on 4 of those. I do see jund lists run twilight mire for Lilly and courser of kruphix though, so take with a grain of salt. Elves have gilt-leaf palace so that's your price ceiling on demand from that deck. The mana base is already very tight there. Abzan gains a lot from this and the WB dual, and with the recent interest at worlds and grim flayer showing up more this could be more desireable. Abzan coco wants early access to green, so this may be a real option here. I see higher demand for GB.
The WB is an auto include in token lists I would imagine. Esper isn't looking to play a short game so it has better options, and is already on 4 celestial colonades which would slow the deck down too much. As mentioned before, Abzan will want this land in some capacity. I think there's an okay amount of demand for this one.
TRON, affinity, bant retreat, bang eldrazi, goryo's veng, scapeshift variants, merfolk, goblins, allies, slivers, and plenty others all feel like they are unaffected by these.
As for standard...
UR spells is staying in almost its entirety.
GB delirium is staying in almost its entirety.
WB control feels strong and they have a ton of sweep effects available to them.
UG lost bounding krasis, coco, harbinger of the tides, and more. The absence of coco will probably shift humans to W/x and spirits to UWx. Unless there is a surprise emerge list I think lumbering falls and sylvan advocate are just stronger in combination.
RW looks very aggressively slanted and will be a requirement for this deck. Maybe a RW human/artifact variant. That new 1 drop that gets +2/+1 with another artifact in play on T1 followed by a thraben inspector looks juicy. The land will be good here.
In summary:
I think GB an UR have the highest chance of increasing from $5 a piece sooner than later, UG I wouldn't expect them to climb over say $7ish. The GW and RB fetches bottomed out around what, $10-12? These are. It fetches, good for sure, but let's be real here.
The rest I think you'll be able to pick up for sub $3-4 after the first month. The pressure of strong mythics (have you seen Chandra's pre order price?) and the kaladesh inventions will force pack sales and offer ample supply.
Edited for phone typos.