I wasn't around went the first conspiracy set came out, so I'm not sure how the prices will behave. I've seen that it has gone down from 12 to 8 euro.
According to your experience, did cards from the previous conspiracy sets keep dropping in price after the first drop? Would you wait to buy the cards you need?
However, I don't have much basis for this and there really isn't a precedent. Conspiracy is a set with unlimited printings and the last conspiracy set had no big modern staple on the level of inquisition reprinted. It absolutely tanked the prices of fringe legacy and EDH cards though, but those had their own supply and demand issues.
Inquisition frequently sees play as a four of and is the premium one mana discard spell of choice in modern so there is very high demand. However, there is also equally high supply so that is why it won't go to bulk level but it also won't push past 10 dollars until maybe a year or two down the line without subsequent reprints.
I'd think that to get the best bang for your buck, you should pick up inquisitions before the new set comes out because that is when the supply dips because people will be opening the new set (unless it is an absolute dud)
Do you care which version you get? The Apocalypse printing of Pernicious Deed continued to tick down long after the printing of Conspiracy 1, but that was partly because Apocalypse was much higher than the Conspiracy and they were moving toward each other. Inquisition's three prices are closer together, but I still suspect tcgmid will decline a few more dollars because Conspiracy 2 boxes have a very high expected value and box openers are going to continue eating it alive. With that in mind I think a month or two is the lowpoint for the new printing and if a significant gap has formed by then Conspiracy will tick up and RoE/Event Deck will tick down for an additional few months.
Reason deed kept dropping so much is because it's no longer good outside EDH. Deedstill isn't viable in legacy due to abrupt decay existing. It only got worse with the CMC flip change too so you can't just play and pop one for zero to kill all the delvers onboard. Delve creatures are also insanely good against it, as killing a gurmag angler with deed is a tall order.
IoK won't drop much. I know at my LGS barely anyone drafted it, managed to fire just 2 drafts in the whole saturday I was there as well as maybe a few during a midnight release. Not to mention as soon as kaladesh comes out no one will be buying conspiracy 2. Not to mention it was shifted to rare.
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Do you care which version you get? The Apocalypse printing of Pernicious Deed continued to tick down long after the printing of Conspiracy 1, but that was partly because Apocalypse was much higher than the Conspiracy and they were moving toward each other. Inquisition's three prices are closer together, but I still suspect tcgmid will decline a few more dollars because Conspiracy 2 boxes have a very high expected value and box openers are going to continue eating it alive. With that in mind I think a month or two is the lowpoint for the new printing and if a significant gap has formed by then Conspiracy will tick up and RoE/Event Deck will tick down for an additional few months.
I actually just did a quick check looking at the lower end of NM prices on ebay (buy it now) and tcgplayer, and came up with the following overall average box value. (Calculated by taking the total value of the non-conspiracy cards (mythic/rare/etc) and dividing by the number in the set and then multiplying by the number expected from the overall average box (usually 4.5 mythics, 31.5 rares, 1.8 of each uncommon) and a small but reasonable value for the foils given the sheer amount of bulk in the set (in this case $5 even though some boxes could obviously be much higher there)(anything below .50 value for rares is considered bulk value)(uncommons/commons are calculated as the value of what the common/uncommon 4x sets (/4) are selling/have sold for for on ebay, excess commons calculated at zero)...
Thusly I came up with the following:
$9/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $40.50
$1/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $31.50
$11/uncommon/common set x 1.8/box = $20
Foils: $5
Total overall average value: $97/box
Honestly not bad, but certainly not as amazing as I think some have been expecting since so many of the reprints have tanked rather strongly in value since announcement/release.
Unfortunately busting the set to resell the cards likely isn't going to be much of a profitable endeavor, barring some good/lucky pulls on the foils.
The set should still get opened a ton simply for the fun of drafting the set, but I suspect many of the card values in the set are likely going to see a bottom at or close to where they are at now by this point.
Currently you can get Inquisitions for as low as $8.50 shipped on ebay/tcgplayer for NM copies, but overall $9 seems about right. It has definitely risen from its low of around $6 that I saw, and really for a card with relatively high demand, it rising back up to its current $9 price or even $10 again really isn't unreasonable in part given the rarity shift, and the large amount of people who were likely in waiting and willing to pay a sub $10 price for the card once it dropped below that. Inevitably picking them up sooner rather than later seems the best idea, however at the same time, the card doesn't seem likely to rise back above $10 anytime soon and will likely sit in the $9-$10 range for a while so there really isn't a super huge rush if you don't need to.
I need an Inquisition of Kozilek for my edh deck.
I wasn't around went the first conspiracy set came out, so I'm not sure how the prices will behave. I've seen that it has gone down from 12 to 8 euro.
According to your experience, did cards from the previous conspiracy sets keep dropping in price after the first drop? Would you wait to buy the cards you need?
Thanks!
However, I don't have much basis for this and there really isn't a precedent. Conspiracy is a set with unlimited printings and the last conspiracy set had no big modern staple on the level of inquisition reprinted. It absolutely tanked the prices of fringe legacy and EDH cards though, but those had their own supply and demand issues.
Inquisition frequently sees play as a four of and is the premium one mana discard spell of choice in modern so there is very high demand. However, there is also equally high supply so that is why it won't go to bulk level but it also won't push past 10 dollars until maybe a year or two down the line without subsequent reprints.
I'd think that to get the best bang for your buck, you should pick up inquisitions before the new set comes out because that is when the supply dips because people will be opening the new set (unless it is an absolute dud)
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IoK won't drop much. I know at my LGS barely anyone drafted it, managed to fire just 2 drafts in the whole saturday I was there as well as maybe a few during a midnight release. Not to mention as soon as kaladesh comes out no one will be buying conspiracy 2. Not to mention it was shifted to rare.
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I actually just did a quick check looking at the lower end of NM prices on ebay (buy it now) and tcgplayer, and came up with the following overall average box value. (Calculated by taking the total value of the non-conspiracy cards (mythic/rare/etc) and dividing by the number in the set and then multiplying by the number expected from the overall average box (usually 4.5 mythics, 31.5 rares, 1.8 of each uncommon) and a small but reasonable value for the foils given the sheer amount of bulk in the set (in this case $5 even though some boxes could obviously be much higher there)(anything below .50 value for rares is considered bulk value)(uncommons/commons are calculated as the value of what the common/uncommon 4x sets (/4) are selling/have sold for for on ebay, excess commons calculated at zero)...
Thusly I came up with the following:
$9/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $40.50
$1/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $31.50
$11/uncommon/common set x 1.8/box = $20
Foils: $5
Total overall average value: $97/box
Honestly not bad, but certainly not as amazing as I think some have been expecting since so many of the reprints have tanked rather strongly in value since announcement/release.
Unfortunately busting the set to resell the cards likely isn't going to be much of a profitable endeavor, barring some good/lucky pulls on the foils.
The set should still get opened a ton simply for the fun of drafting the set, but I suspect many of the card values in the set are likely going to see a bottom at or close to where they are at now by this point.
Currently you can get Inquisitions for as low as $8.50 shipped on ebay/tcgplayer for NM copies, but overall $9 seems about right. It has definitely risen from its low of around $6 that I saw, and really for a card with relatively high demand, it rising back up to its current $9 price or even $10 again really isn't unreasonable in part given the rarity shift, and the large amount of people who were likely in waiting and willing to pay a sub $10 price for the card once it dropped below that. Inevitably picking them up sooner rather than later seems the best idea, however at the same time, the card doesn't seem likely to rise back above $10 anytime soon and will likely sit in the $9-$10 range for a while so there really isn't a super huge rush if you don't need to.
Thanks.