It looks like Eternal Masters is reprinting a lot of cards with art that was only formerly available on Judge foils. What effect do you think this will this have on the value of the Judge foils?
It will hurt them significantly, especially if the judge version is the only way to currently get a card in foil form. Force of Will's Judge foil already went from $775 to $375 based on this announcement. Original Wasteland judge foil and MPR Wasteland foils are down $50 and $75-$100 respectively (although Expedition versions added to the downward trend).
I'm not asking for anyone's sympathy and I know Magic is a GAME first and an investment second, but man I've lost probably $800-$900 in card values already. In fact, as we near the end of the spoilers I was going to create a thread about what kind of losses people took.
It looks like Eternal Masters is reprinting a lot of cards with art that was only formerly available on Judge foils. What effect do you think this will this have on the value of the Judge foils?
Negligible. It may stall their rise (see Doubling Season from MM1), but the judge promos of Sneak Attack, Karakas, and Mana Crypt are going to be significantly rarer than foil mythics from this set, so they will retain their cachet of "most desirable". Similarly, Sylvan Library (Cmdr Arsenal).
The art of a judge promo is not usually a contributing factor to price. Several judge promo arts have been reprinted before, and the judge version doesn't move. It's rarity that makes them valuable.
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So far, even the regular printings of cards are not hemorrhaging too badly. I would normally assume that, given the number of incredibly powerful cards at Rare and Mythic in this set, I would have to assume something has to give. In Modern Masters, only two Mythics (Confidant and Goyf) really held value while the rest shrunk. On the second go around, it was two others (Goyf and Clique).
I'm seeing stuff preselling at non-Eternal Masters prices, or, for those that were previously up into the $150+ range, down below $100. See: http://www.starcitygames.com/content/ema While this is a welcome drop, I don't think it's the basement, yet. Can a set really have FIVE cards worth about $75.00 or more? Seems sketchy.
Eager for the singles to start popping up to finish a few playsets.
You won't really see card prices for older printings go down until Eternal Masters hits the street. It'll be 3-6 months while the market settles out before we really know where we're at. The biggest wildcard right now is the size of the print run. If this is a very limited print run similar to the first Modern Masters, things will probably be pretty high price wise. If it's closer to Modern Masters 2015..... Different Story.
@SonofaBith - I'm right there with you. I'm at about $500 in lost value for Judge Foils.
@KnickM - I think you're right about the judge foils (Crucible of Worlds not withstanding). But I think that they will dip over the next handful of months because just about everyone who wants them will just buy EMA versions of a card instead of Judge Foils instead. It actually is a compelling argument to go off and buy the Judge Foil versions over the next several months because they'll probably appreciate faster than the EMA versions.
It looks like Eternal Masters is reprinting a lot of cards with art that was only formerly available on Judge foils. What effect do you think this will this have on the value of the Judge foils?
Negligible. It may stall their rise (see Doubling Season from MM1), but the judge promos of Sneak Attack, Karakas, and Mana Crypt are going to be significantly rarer than foil mythics from this set, so they will retain their cachet of "most desirable". Similarly, Sylvan Library (Cmdr Arsenal).
The art of a judge promo is not usually a contributing factor to price. Several judge promo arts have been reprinted before, and the judge version doesn't move. It's rarity that makes them valuable.
We disagree in this regard, so lets make a note of the baseline price on the date the reprint was spoiled, and revisit upon release, and a few weeks after release? This way we'll have a record.
Here are the TCGP Low prices for nr. mint copies of judge foils including shipping costs. If someone was selling for an abnormally low price or it was a price offered by a single seller, with a single copy, I went to the next lowest price to determine the price baselines.
FOW (different art than the judge foil): $775 (2/15)
Wasteland (different art than the judge foil) (first Judge promo): $150 (2/15)
Mana Crypt (same art): $225 (5/23)
Sneak Attack (same art): $60 (5/23)
Maze of Ith (different art than the judge foil): $104 (5/23)
Karakas (same art): $150 (5/24)
Mishra's Factory (different art than the judge foil): $50 (5/24)
Vindicate (same 2013 Judge art): $35 (5/25)
Natural Order (same art): $173 (5/25) (take this price with a grain of salt, because there are 3 sellers that have them priced at $150, $173, and $291)
Sinkhole (different art): $47 (5/26)
Argothian Enchantress (same art): $53 (5/26)
Karmic Guide (same art): $27 (5/26)
@KnickM - I think you're right about the judge foils (Crucible of Worlds not withstanding). But I think that they will dip over the next handful of months because just about everyone who wants them will just buy EMA versions of a card instead of Judge Foils instead. It actually is a compelling argument to go off and buy the Judge Foil versions over the next several months because they'll probably appreciate faster than the EMA versions.
Thoughts?
I was actually considering editing my post to include that point. Definitely agree about people ditching judge promos and rebuying EMA plus something else.
We disagree in this regard, so lets make a note of the baseline price on the date the reprint was spoiled, and revisit upon release, and a few weeks after release? This way we'll have a record.
Here are the TCGP Low prices for nr. mint copies of judge foils including shipping costs. If someone was selling for an abnormally low price or it was a price offered by a single seller, with a single copy, I went to the next lowest price to determine the price baselines.
Sure? OP's question was about judge foils with the same art, so that lets out FoW, Wasteland, and Factory. But keeping a record is a good idea - that way we'll have more info for next year. That's usually the time scale I deal with (I am so bad about moving stuff into a spike), so I'll clarify that I meant in the long-term, at least a year out.
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You won't really see card prices for older printings go down until Eternal Masters hits the street. It'll be 3-6 months while the market settles out before we really know where we're at. The biggest wildcard right now is the size of the print run. If this is a very limited print run similar to the first Modern Masters, things will probably be pretty high price wise. If it's closer to Modern Masters 2015..... Different Story.
@SonofaBith - I'm right there with you. I'm at about $500 in lost value for Judge Foils.
@KnickM - I think you're right about the judge foils (Crucible of Worlds not withstanding). But I think that they will dip over the next handful of months because just about everyone who wants them will just buy EMA versions of a card instead of Judge Foils instead. It actually is a compelling argument to go off and buy the Judge Foil versions over the next several months because they'll probably appreciate faster than the EMA versions.
Thoughts?
I believe they said the print run will be similar (if not equal) to the first modern masters when the very first announcement of EMA as a set occurred.
Although it will be hard to predict because demand and supply for most cards are very different from modern masters.
You won't really see card prices for older printings go down until Eternal Masters hits the street. It'll be 3-6 months while the market settles out before we really know where we're at. The biggest wildcard right now is the size of the print run. If this is a very limited print run similar to the first Modern Masters, things will probably be pretty high price wise. If it's closer to Modern Masters 2015..... Different Story.
@SonofaBith - I'm right there with you. I'm at about $500 in lost value for Judge Foils.
@KnickM - I think you're right about the judge foils (Crucible of Worlds not withstanding). But I think that they will dip over the next handful of months because just about everyone who wants them will just buy EMA versions of a card instead of Judge Foils instead. It actually is a compelling argument to go off and buy the Judge Foil versions over the next several months because they'll probably appreciate faster than the EMA versions.
Thoughts?
I believe they said the print run will be similar (if not equal) to the first modern masters when the very first announcement of EMA as a set occurred.
Although it will be hard to predict because demand and supply for most cards are very different from modern masters.
Wizards' WPN shows that 3 cases to low level stores, 6 to medium and 12 to large stores. I'd imagine the big boys (Channelfireball, SCG, etc) get more. I believe that lined up with what the original Modern Masters was.
As for supply versus demand, I think that demand will far outstrip the available supply.
Here are the TCGP Low prices for nr. mint copies of judge foils including shipping costs. If someone was selling for an abnormally low price or it was a price offered by a single seller, with a single copy, I went to the next lowest price to determine the price baselines.
FOW (different art than the judge foil): $775 (2/15)
Wasteland (different art than the judge foil) (first Judge promo): $150 (2/15)
Mana Crypt (same art): $225 (5/23)
Sneak Attack (same art): $60 (5/23)
Maze of Ith (different art than the judge foil): $104 (5/23)
Karakas (same art): $150 (5/24)
Mishra's Factory (different art than the judge foil): $50 (5/24)
Vindicate (same 2013 Judge art): $35 (5/25)
Natural Order (same art): $173 (5/25) (take this price with a grain of salt, because there are 3 sellers that have them priced at $150, $173, and $291)
Sinkhole (different art): $47 (5/26)
Argothian Enchantress (same art): $53 (5/26)
Karmic Guide (same art): $27 (5/26)
Don't forget Dualcaster Mage and Shardless Agent. And Balance. And Entomb.
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Here are the TCGP Low prices for nr. mint copies of judge foils including shipping costs. If someone was selling for an abnormally low price or it was a price offered by a single seller, with a single copy, I went to the next lowest price to determine the price baselines.
FOW (different art than the judge foil): $775 (2/15)
Wasteland (different art than the judge foil) (first Judge promo): $150 (2/15)
Mana Crypt (same art): $225 (5/23)
Sneak Attack (same art): $60 (5/23)
Maze of Ith (different art than the judge foil): $104 (5/23)
Karakas (same art): $150 (5/24)
Mishra's Factory (different art than the judge foil): $50 (5/24)
Vindicate (same 2013 Judge art): $35 (5/25)
Natural Order (same art): $173 (5/25) (take this price with a grain of salt, because there are 3 sellers that have them priced at $150, $173, and $291)
Sinkhole (different art): $47 (5/26)
Argothian Enchantress (same art): $53 (5/26)
Karmic Guide (same art): $27 (5/26)
Don't forget Dualcaster Mage and Shardless Agent. And Balance. And Entomb.
My god. Judges who actually kept all their foils must be wallowing in the lost value misery right now. 16 judge foils reprinted in a single set?! Yeah, that's a ton.
Here are the TCGP Low prices for nr. mint copies of judge foils including shipping costs. If someone was selling for an abnormally low price or it was a price offered by a single seller, with a single copy, I went to the next lowest price to determine the price baselines.
FOW (different art than the judge foil): $775 (2/15)
Wasteland (different art than the judge foil) (first Judge promo): $150 (2/15)
Mana Crypt (same art): $225 (5/23)
Sneak Attack (same art): $60 (5/23)
Maze of Ith (different art than the judge foil): $104 (5/23)
Karakas (same art): $150 (5/24)
Mishra's Factory (different art than the judge foil): $50 (5/24)
Vindicate (same 2013 Judge art): $35 (5/25)
Natural Order (same art): $173 (5/25) (take this price with a grain of salt, because there are 3 sellers that have them priced at $150, $173, and $291)
Sinkhole (different art): $47 (5/26)
Argothian Enchantress (same art): $53 (5/26)
Karmic Guide (same art): $27 (5/26)
Don't forget Dualcaster Mage and Shardless Agent. And Balance. And Entomb.
My god. Judges who actually kept all their foils must be wallowing in the lost value misery right now. 16 judge foils reprinted in a single set?! Yeah, that's a ton.
Vampiric Tutor (New art) And we're not done yet (although we probably are).
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This set was pretty insulting to judges and a missed business opportunity IMO. It wouldn't cost Wizards much to preserve the artwork + border combination on judge foils. Plenty of artists would have loved to get new art in Eternal Masters. And collectors - whether they are judges are not - benefit from having a more diverse art set. This set is already a reprint based set, why make it a reprint of a reprint set. It instills anger at WotC for the treatment or lack of regard for Judge awards, and lessens the appeal for the eternal crowd who can actually afford to pay $15+/pack to buy one - as they are also the most likely crowd to already have premium versions of these exact cards.
Seeing Karakas in the spoiler list with the same exact artwork - so, so disappointing.
Not to ramble on... back to topic, yes I do think this will have a relevant impact on the Judge Foils, and especially those w/ the same art.
Set is fully spoiled now, and I've got my targets set up for hunting for singles. Here's my take on where to look for value on the secondary market once boxes get cracked:
--------------
BELOW A DOLLAR
Generally good cards to have spare copies of due to use in various formats. Already pretty cheap, likely to be smashed into the dirt by the Eternal Masters printing.
--------------
Eight-and-a-half-tails (fine Commander, likely to be viewed as trash in this set; might crash hard)
Unexpectedly Absent
Memory Lapse (due entirely to sweet new art. Get em for a nickel!)
Serendib Efreet
Night's Whisper
Mogg War Marshal
Young Pyromancer
Giant Solifuge (new art -- this way to nickel town!)
Future Sight (always a fun card)
Wirewood Symboite
--------------
AROUND A DOLLAR
Very useful cards in the 2 - 10 dollar range that might crater due to temporary availability. Good cards to have spares of for EDH or casual decks.
--------------
Daze (stock up while they're cheap as dirt)
Sinkhole (Im not saying it'll be this cheap, just that it's worth scooping up if it gets there.)
Toxic Deluge
Chain Lightning
Gamble
Price of Progress
Heritage Druid
Vindicate
Deathrite Shaman
Isochron Scepter
Goblin Charbelcher
Argoth Enchantress
--------------
FIVE DOLLAR ISH
Very powerful cards in the 10 - 20 range currently that are probably not super sought after in this set.
--------------
Vamp Tutor
Green Sun's Zenith
Sylvan Library
--------------
TEN DOLLAR ISH
20 - 50 cards; I'm only in on these if they get down close to 10 bux.
--------------
Sneak Attack
Natural Order
Karakas
Wasteland
--------------
THIRTY DOLLAR ISH
Finally, the chase cards. Previously around $100 big ones. Jace has already started to list down to $60, and I suspect he has further to go. I have no illusions of these prices dropping enough for me to get in, but I'm not in on these unless they get close to $30.00.
--------------
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Mana Crypt
Force of Will
I think the above prices are wishful thinking. I just don't see these prices dipping this low - with as many low-price jank rares as there are, people with a great cards aren't going to be letting them go for $30.
I think they'd be leaning on those cards to recoup the majority of their $300+ box's value.
I have to agree with the previous poster, those prices are definitely wishful thinking. While some will likely drop a bit, expecting some of the more popular cards to tank into the floor seems a bit unlikely, as there is a ton of pent-up demand out there at prices below the current going rates. What is going to tank in price are the casually demanded cards that are mostly only priced as high as they are due to the previous supply restrictions vs their current demand. Those are usually always what gets hit the worst. The popular tournament and EDH and such cards though, those will drop some, but likely not more than 50% from their old prices no matter what.
Regal Force is definitely a poster child for what you just described. It was slowly creeping towards $20 - I dont see the new influx of supply maintaining a price much over $5 for the foreseeable future.
I think the above prices are wishful thinking. I just don't see these prices dipping this low - with as many low-price jank rares as there are, people with a great cards aren't going to be letting them go for $30.
I have to agree with the previous poster, those prices are definitely wishful thinking. While some will likely drop a bit, expecting some of the more popular cards to tank into the floor seems a bit unlikely, as there is a ton of pent-up demand out there at prices below the current going rates.
I believe that the numbers given are where MaximumC will buy in. Perhaps that speaks to his budget - I don't know. But he mentions that "I'm only in on these cards if they get down close to ..." So it's less of a prediction and, as you said, more of a wish list.
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Here are the list of Judge Foils being reprinted in Eternal Masters, a mention of if the reprint has the same art, new art, or different art as the judge foil (as is the case of Maze of Ith and Mishra's Factory, which are neither new art, or judge foil art), the date of the spoiler, and the price of the card, (based on TCGP Low, for a shipped near mint copy) at the time the card was spoiled. I'll revisit this periodically, so we can see the effects the reprints had on these cards. If I've overlooked a card or erred on the date of a spoiler, please let me know.
FOW (new art): $775 (2/15)
Wasteland (new art): $150 (first Judge promo) (2/15)
Mana Crypt (judge promo art): $225 (5/23)
Sneak Attack (judge promo art): $60 (5/23)
Maze of Ith (different art): $104 (5/23) (FTV foil with this art was $24 on 5/23)
Karakas (judge promo art): $150 (5/24)
Mishra's Factory (different art): $50 (5/24)
Vindicate (2013 judge promo art): $35 (5/25)
Natural Order (judge promo art): $173 (5/25) (take this price with a grain of salt, because there are 3 sellers that have them priced at $150, $173, and $291)
Sinkhole (new art): $47 (5/26)
Argothian Enchantress (judge promo art): $53 (5/26)
Karmic Guide (judge promo art): $27 (5/26)
Dualcaster Mage (judge promo art): $14 (5/26)
Vampiric Tutor (new art): $76 (5/26)
Shardless Agent (judge promo art): $50 (5/26)
Balance (judge promo art): $31 (5/26)
Entomb (new art): $28 (5/26)
^for the record, Maze of Ith is the FtV art, not new.
I'm aware (I have 17 FTV Mazes!), but the purpose of this exercise is a comparison to judge foil art, so for this purpose I've classified it as new. But, it is a unique circumstance. I've decided to also track the FTV cost.
^for the record, Maze of Ith is the FtV art, not new.
I'm aware (I have 17 FTV Mazes!), but the purpose of this exercise is a comparison to judge foil art, so for this purpose I've classified it as new. But, it is a unique circumstance. I've decided to also track the FTV cost.
I'm not asking for anyone's sympathy and I know Magic is a GAME first and an investment second, but man I've lost probably $800-$900 in card values already. In fact, as we near the end of the spoilers I was going to create a thread about what kind of losses people took.
Negligible. It may stall their rise (see Doubling Season from MM1), but the judge promos of Sneak Attack, Karakas, and Mana Crypt are going to be significantly rarer than foil mythics from this set, so they will retain their cachet of "most desirable". Similarly, Sylvan Library (Cmdr Arsenal).
The art of a judge promo is not usually a contributing factor to price. Several judge promo arts have been reprinted before, and the judge version doesn't move. It's rarity that makes them valuable.
I'm seeing stuff preselling at non-Eternal Masters prices, or, for those that were previously up into the $150+ range, down below $100. See: http://www.starcitygames.com/content/ema While this is a welcome drop, I don't think it's the basement, yet. Can a set really have FIVE cards worth about $75.00 or more? Seems sketchy.
Eager for the singles to start popping up to finish a few playsets.
@SonofaBith - I'm right there with you. I'm at about $500 in lost value for Judge Foils.
@KnickM - I think you're right about the judge foils (Crucible of Worlds not withstanding). But I think that they will dip over the next handful of months because just about everyone who wants them will just buy EMA versions of a card instead of Judge Foils instead. It actually is a compelling argument to go off and buy the Judge Foil versions over the next several months because they'll probably appreciate faster than the EMA versions.
Thoughts?
We disagree in this regard, so lets make a note of the baseline price on the date the reprint was spoiled, and revisit upon release, and a few weeks after release? This way we'll have a record.
Here are the TCGP Low prices for nr. mint copies of judge foils including shipping costs. If someone was selling for an abnormally low price or it was a price offered by a single seller, with a single copy, I went to the next lowest price to determine the price baselines.
FOW (different art than the judge foil): $775 (2/15)
Wasteland (different art than the judge foil) (first Judge promo): $150 (2/15)
Mana Crypt (same art): $225 (5/23)
Sneak Attack (same art): $60 (5/23)
Maze of Ith (different art than the judge foil): $104 (5/23)
Karakas (same art): $150 (5/24)
Mishra's Factory (different art than the judge foil): $50 (5/24)
Vindicate (same 2013 Judge art): $35 (5/25)
Natural Order (same art): $173 (5/25) (take this price with a grain of salt, because there are 3 sellers that have them priced at $150, $173, and $291)
Sinkhole (different art): $47 (5/26)
Argothian Enchantress (same art): $53 (5/26)
Karmic Guide (same art): $27 (5/26)
I was actually considering editing my post to include that point. Definitely agree about people ditching judge promos and rebuying EMA plus something else.
Sure? OP's question was about judge foils with the same art, so that lets out FoW, Wasteland, and Factory. But keeping a record is a good idea - that way we'll have more info for next year. That's usually the time scale I deal with (I am so bad about moving stuff into a spike), so I'll clarify that I meant in the long-term, at least a year out.
I believe they said the print run will be similar (if not equal) to the first modern masters when the very first announcement of EMA as a set occurred.
Although it will be hard to predict because demand and supply for most cards are very different from modern masters.
Wizards' WPN shows that 3 cases to low level stores, 6 to medium and 12 to large stores. I'd imagine the big boys (Channelfireball, SCG, etc) get more. I believe that lined up with what the original Modern Masters was.
As for supply versus demand, I think that demand will far outstrip the available supply.
Don't forget Dualcaster Mage and Shardless Agent. And Balance. And Entomb.
My god. Judges who actually kept all their foils must be wallowing in the lost value misery right now. 16 judge foils reprinted in a single set?! Yeah, that's a ton.
Vampiric Tutor (New art) And we're not done yet (although we probably are).
Seeing Karakas in the spoiler list with the same exact artwork - so, so disappointing.
Not to ramble on... back to topic, yes I do think this will have a relevant impact on the Judge Foils, and especially those w/ the same art.
--------------
BELOW A DOLLAR
Generally good cards to have spare copies of due to use in various formats. Already pretty cheap, likely to be smashed into the dirt by the Eternal Masters printing.
--------------
Eight-and-a-half-tails (fine Commander, likely to be viewed as trash in this set; might crash hard)
Unexpectedly Absent
Memory Lapse (due entirely to sweet new art. Get em for a nickel!)
Serendib Efreet
Night's Whisper
Mogg War Marshal
Young Pyromancer
Giant Solifuge (new art -- this way to nickel town!)
Future Sight (always a fun card)
Wirewood Symboite
--------------
AROUND A DOLLAR
Very useful cards in the 2 - 10 dollar range that might crater due to temporary availability. Good cards to have spares of for EDH or casual decks.
--------------
Daze (stock up while they're cheap as dirt)
Sinkhole (Im not saying it'll be this cheap, just that it's worth scooping up if it gets there.)
Toxic Deluge
Chain Lightning
Gamble
Price of Progress
Heritage Druid
Vindicate
Deathrite Shaman
Isochron Scepter
Goblin Charbelcher
Argoth Enchantress
--------------
FIVE DOLLAR ISH
Very powerful cards in the 10 - 20 range currently that are probably not super sought after in this set.
--------------
Vamp Tutor
Green Sun's Zenith
Sylvan Library
--------------
TEN DOLLAR ISH
20 - 50 cards; I'm only in on these if they get down close to 10 bux.
--------------
Sneak Attack
Natural Order
Karakas
Wasteland
--------------
THIRTY DOLLAR ISH
Finally, the chase cards. Previously around $100 big ones. Jace has already started to list down to $60, and I suspect he has further to go. I have no illusions of these prices dropping enough for me to get in, but I'm not in on these unless they get close to $30.00.
--------------
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Mana Crypt
Force of Will
I think they'd be leaning on those cards to recoup the majority of their $300+ box's value.
I believe that the numbers given are where MaximumC will buy in. Perhaps that speaks to his budget - I don't know. But he mentions that "I'm only in on these cards if they get down close to ..." So it's less of a prediction and, as you said, more of a wish list.
FOW (new art): $775 (2/15)
Wasteland (new art): $150 (first Judge promo) (2/15)
Mana Crypt (judge promo art): $225 (5/23)
Sneak Attack (judge promo art): $60 (5/23)
Maze of Ith (different art): $104 (5/23) (FTV foil with this art was $24 on 5/23)
Karakas (judge promo art): $150 (5/24)
Mishra's Factory (different art): $50 (5/24)
Vindicate (2013 judge promo art): $35 (5/25)
Natural Order (judge promo art): $173 (5/25) (take this price with a grain of salt, because there are 3 sellers that have them priced at $150, $173, and $291)
Sinkhole (new art): $47 (5/26)
Argothian Enchantress (judge promo art): $53 (5/26)
Karmic Guide (judge promo art): $27 (5/26)
Dualcaster Mage (judge promo art): $14 (5/26)
Vampiric Tutor (new art): $76 (5/26)
Shardless Agent (judge promo art): $50 (5/26)
Balance (judge promo art): $31 (5/26)
Entomb (new art): $28 (5/26)
UBBreya's Toybox (Competitive, Combo)WR
RGodzilla, King of the MonstersG
-Retired Decks-
UBLazav, Dimir Mastermind (Competitive, UB Voltron/Control)UB
"Knowledge is such a burden. Release it. Release all your fears to me."
—Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
I'm aware (I have 17 FTV Mazes!), but the purpose of this exercise is a comparison to judge foil art, so for this purpose I've classified it as new. But, it is a unique circumstance. I've decided to also track the FTV cost.
Ah I gotcha.
UBBreya's Toybox (Competitive, Combo)WR
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-Retired Decks-
UBLazav, Dimir Mastermind (Competitive, UB Voltron/Control)UB
"Knowledge is such a burden. Release it. Release all your fears to me."
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