Has anyone noticed there has been a dramatic uptick in Vintage purchases, particularly black lotus?
In the past three months, black lotuses have been steadily picked up, like on average 1 every 2 days at prices of 3k or higher.
I follow the lotus market, and this is considerably more than usual.
I remember trying to sell a lotus just last year and sales were probably 1 a week or 1 every 5 days. Based on my observations so far, the price of lotus hasn't yet swung up to reflect the new demand yet.
I'm going to divide the magic pricing cycle into 3 phases.
If I am a vendor selling snapcaster mages for $50 each, then in phase 1. I might have 25 snapcasters for sale at $50 each.
In phase 2, when buyers are buying, I might have 5 snapcasters left at $50 each. the price of the snapcaster has not yet increased, but the supply has certainly shrunk.
In phase 3, when I have 1 or 0 left. (or some other small number), I as the vendor will notice and raise the price of snapcaster. The new price listing might be like
4 snapcasters at $60 each.
I think part of this is people finally pulling the trigger since the death of Christopher Rush, realizing that their last chances to own a Lotus are slipping through their grasp. I finally got mine last year (UL), a few months before he passed for about 3k in trades. He was genuinely very happy for me when I had him sign the toploader to display it in. Such an iconic card, with its artist passed away, elevating it to a truly Legendary Artifact and icon of the game. I've noticed fewer and fewer SP condition copies in the 3200 range, and the ones that do pop up seem to get bought quickly with the price moving more and more towards 3-4k for an MP UL copy. I would say Lotus is right now in a phase 2.5, as long as the stock of 3k MP UL Lotuses doesn't dry up completely, the price won't jump significantly, but when they all dry up we'll see the next person to sell one put it up at $3600 or more. Some vendors have already raised their prices in anticipation of this to 3800ish, and it would appear that there's only 2 left at this condition/price. Once these are gone, the next lowest price is 4k!
Has anyone noticed there has been a dramatic uptick in Vintage purchases, particularly black lotus?
In the past three months, black lotuses have been steadily picked up, like on average 1 every 2 days at prices of 3k or higher.
I follow the lotus market, and this is considerably more than usual.
I remember trying to sell a lotus just last year and sales were probably 1 a week or 1 every 5 days. Based on my observations so far, the price of lotus hasn't yet swung up to reflect the new demand yet.
I'm going to divide the magic pricing cycle into 3 phases.
If I am a vendor selling snapcaster mages for $50 each, then in phase 1. I might have 25 snapcasters for sale at $50 each.
In phase 2, when buyers are buying, I might have 5 snapcasters left at $50 each. the price of the snapcaster has not yet increased, but the supply has certainly shrunk.
In phase 3, when I have 1 or 0 left. (or some other small number), I as the vendor will notice and raise the price of snapcaster. The new price listing might be like
4 snapcasters at $60 each.
I believe Black Lotus is in phase 2 right now.
1 every 2 days where? On Ebay?
It isn't as simple as those 3 phases you say. Caeteris paribus, if demand increases, prices also do. And when prices rise, more people are willing to sell. The opposite happens when demand shrinks or supply increases. It's a process that autocorrects continually.
I think Lotus is kind of an exemption to this rule. The thing is, the supply of lotuses, particularly good condition ones, are drying up. This is due to the nature of this particular card, many owners obtaining one are of the mindset that it's something that they won't part with unless the pricetag simply gets too ridiculous to ignore, or a financial crisis forces their hand. It's always been and always will be the capstone piece of Magic. It's a notable exception to the rule that most Magic cards pricetags are made up of both collectibility and playability. There's only one format you can even play a single Lotus in, and aside from a few hotspots, is a pretty niche one at that. Playability has almost no impact on Lotus' price, it's almost entirely derived from its status as a collectible. Cards getting their price from their playability are more liquid, with people being happy to move them as they change decks and such. People getting cards as a collector's piece, however, are much less likely to sell just because prices rose. Granted, at some point everyone does indeed have a price, but most collectors that have finally obtained a Lotus aren't going to suddenly move it off to make $200. If anything, that rise in price reaffirms their investment and makes them want to hold it longer. Sure, eventually the price gets so high that it does indeed autocorrect, but with something that is becoming increasingly more and more difficult to obtain, coupled with an increased demand fueled in part by the passing of Christopher Rush (at least IMO), I think we're seeing a bigger and more permanent rise in the price as supply continues to dwindle. I don't think many people buy a Lotus to flip it, and for every one that does, there's someone else buying one to make it part of their permanent collection. This can be partially proven by the fact that the most desirable, cleanest copies are in very short supply and the ones that are available have a much larger, disproportionate pricetag compared to the price differential of cards like Underground Sea (LP vs NM) where the pricetags are much more heavily influenced by playability.
The general rules of supply and demand are just a little different for cards like Lotus because the demand exists for a different reason and stems from a different audience.
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Has anyone noticed there has been a dramatic uptick in Vintage purchases, particularly black lotus?
In the past three months, black lotuses have been steadily picked up, like on average 1 every 2 days at prices of 3k or higher.
I follow the lotus market, and this is considerably more than usual.
I remember trying to sell a lotus just last year and sales were probably 1 a week or 1 every 5 days. Based on my observations so far, the price of lotus hasn't yet swung up to reflect the new demand yet.
I'm going to divide the magic pricing cycle into 3 phases.
If I am a vendor selling snapcaster mages for $50 each, then in phase 1. I might have 25 snapcasters for sale at $50 each.
In phase 2, when buyers are buying, I might have 5 snapcasters left at $50 each. the price of the snapcaster has not yet increased, but the supply has certainly shrunk.
In phase 3, when I have 1 or 0 left. (or some other small number), I as the vendor will notice and raise the price of snapcaster. The new price listing might be like
4 snapcasters at $60 each.
I believe Black Lotus is in phase 2 right now.
1 every 2 days where? On Ebay?
It isn't as simple as those 3 phases you say. Caeteris paribus, if demand increases, prices also do. And when prices rise, more people are willing to sell. The opposite happens when demand shrinks or supply increases. It's a process that autocorrects continually.
Actually my three phases are more complicated than the conventional economics equilibrium, and that's the point. The point is in a market as illiquid as black lotus, the price will not rise and adjust so rapidly.
With gold or oil, demand or supply increases affect the highly liquid market rapidly.
But in the black lotus market, you literally have only 100-200 participants in the market at any given moment.
In other words, the Black lotus "market" is about 200 dudes/vendors posting on craigslist, ebay, facebook high end magic group, MKM, and what have you.
That's why you have to expand the model. You say if demand increases, prices also do. Sure fine. I agree with that. Econ agrees with you. But let's take that theory and apply to the 200 dudes.
And that's what I'm saying. Standard Econ theory as applied practically to the market of 200 dudes will function more similarly to how i described it.
Beta Lotus sold for ~ 5.5k 3/22
Beta Lotus BGS 8.5 sold for ~ 8.1k 3/21
Beta Lotus sold for ~ 6k 3/21
beta Lotus BGS 9 sold for ~ 13k 3/20
beta Lotus BGS 9.5 sold for ~ 39k 3/19 (signed)
UL lotus sold for ~ 3.2k 3/18
Alpha Lotus HP sold for ~ 6.4k Ides of March
Dan Bock Pony Lotus sold for 2.4k 3/14
Beta Lotus sold for 7.2k 3/12
Alpha Lotus BGS 9 sold for 21k 3/5
UL lotus sold for ~ 2.2k 3/5
UL lotus sold for ~ 3.1k 3/4
UL lotus sold for ~ 2.6k 3/1
I've followed the lotus market for a while, and I'm telling you this is a massive increase from the norm. Someone or some group of people are picking up lotuses significantly faster than before.
I think Lotus is kind of an exemption to this rule. The thing is, the supply of lotuses, particularly good condition ones, are drying up. This is due to the nature of this particular card, many owners obtaining one are of the mindset that it's something that they won't part with unless the pricetag simply gets too ridiculous to ignore, or a financial crisis forces their hand. It's always been and always will be the capstone piece of Magic. It's a notable exception to the rule that most Magic cards pricetags are made up of both collectibility and playability. There's only one format you can even play a single Lotus in, and aside from a few hotspots, is a pretty niche one at that. Playability has almost no impact on Lotus' price, it's almost entirely derived from its status as a collectible. Cards getting their price from their playability are more liquid, with people being happy to move them as they change decks and such. People getting cards as a collector's piece, however, are much less likely to sell just because prices rose. Granted, at some point everyone does indeed have a price, but most collectors that have finally obtained a Lotus aren't going to suddenly move it off to make $200. If anything, that rise in price reaffirms their investment and makes them want to hold it longer. Sure, eventually the price gets so high that it does indeed autocorrect, but with something that is becoming increasingly more and more difficult to obtain, coupled with an increased demand fueled in part by the passing of Christopher Rush (at least IMO), I think we're seeing a bigger and more permanent rise in the price as supply continues to dwindle. I don't think many people buy a Lotus to flip it, and for every one that does, there's someone else buying one to make it part of their permanent collection. This can be partially proven by the fact that the most desirable, cleanest copies are in very short supply and the ones that are available have a much larger, disproportionate pricetag compared to the price differential of cards like Underground Sea (LP vs NM) where the pricetags are much more heavily influenced by playability.
The general rules of supply and demand are just a little different for cards like Lotus because the demand exists for a different reason and stems from a different audience.
Based on my observations of the market, I would agree. Black Lotus is in a category all by itself.
It obeys NONE of the ordinary assumptions of magic pricing. It is pretty much THE status card people think about. It is the undisputed answer to the question "What's the most expensive magic card"
Sure there's fraternal exaltation, Proposal, misprints, or blue hurricanes. But the card that stands on its own merits is black lotus. Hopelessly overpowered, and the enabler of countless turn 1 kills, it iconically defines magic even outside magic. People who dont play magic wont know ancestral recall, but they might know of black lotus. It's price is partially responsible for it's infamy. It's the one card that X person payed 40,000....5000...20000....17000...for. What's shocking to me though is that it continues to gain. Normally a price spike would cause massive sell side pressure. But it hasnt happened.
With the passing of Rush, and the prices continuing upwards, I think of people willing to sell theirs aren't because they simply want to wait to see where it goes. They know what they have. They know it really only has one trajectory. I mean, the condition I got mine in and the pricetag I got it for, I would say the card has gained about $800 or so since I got it a few months ago and I'm watching the supply dwindle as you are. Why would I sell now if I don't need the money? At the rate it's been gaining, if I wait another year, I might see it go up another 1k. I mean, Lotus wasn't always 4k, but at some point it had to make some jumps along its life to get there. I remember when they were $250 for a beta. At some point they went to $700, then $1000, then up and up and up. I think we might be looking at another jump here to a new market price before it stabilizes. Jumps in power pricing are rare, they're more of a "slowly gains value" type of thing, but sometimes things can cause jumps on power, like when SCG raised their buylist prices for reserve list cards and we watched reserve list prices go through the roof a few years back. In this case, I really think the passing of Rush has caused a new interest in the card and resulted in another jump.
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Passing of Rush has definitely affected it. I've looked and there seem to be less for sale than before his untimely passing. People who own lotuses don't simply sell them on the flip of a dime, they sell it if they need the cash or are a vendor. There are a great many lotuses out there that will likely never be sold again barring very extreme circumstances like the owner passing away and the person who inherits the lotus selling it or, again, need money for medical bills or any number of things. People don't sell lotus just because it went up $500 so they can make a profit on them. People will be sitting on lotuses for literally decades without selling them.
More people are probably realizing that the window on buying lotuses is closing in this price range. People hate to miss the window at, say, $2.5K and then have to drop $1.5K more on a copy of an unlimited lotus as that's naturally a very big increase both percentage and cash wise.
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Passing of Rush has definitely affected it. I've looked and there seem to be less for sale than before his untimely passing. People who own lotuses don't simply sell them on the flip of a dime, they sell it if they need the cash or are a vendor. There are a great many lotuses out there that will likely never be sold again barring very extreme circumstances like the owner passing away and the person who inherits the lotus selling it or, again, need money for medical bills or any number of things. People don't sell lotus just because it went up $500 so they can make a profit on them. People will be sitting on lotuses for literally decades without selling them.
More people are probably realizing that the window on buying lotuses is closing in this price range. People hate to miss the window at, say, $2.5K and then have to drop $1.5K more on a copy of an unlimited lotus as that's naturally a very big increase both percentage and cash wise.
I think this is an issue with the Power 9 in general. People that were teenagers when the game first came out are now pushing 40. Many of them can afford to purchase these cards. With only an estimated 15,000 in existence and some number of them already destroyed, it is possible that we'll get to a point they aren't available for any price. Some vintage baseball cards only come up for auction every 5 or 10 years and others less than that. We could easily see something like that happen within our lifetimes.
Passing of Rush has definitely affected it. I've looked and there seem to be less for sale than before his untimely passing. People who own lotuses don't simply sell them on the flip of a dime, they sell it if they need the cash or are a vendor. There are a great many lotuses out there that will likely never be sold again barring very extreme circumstances like the owner passing away and the person who inherits the lotus selling it or, again, need money for medical bills or any number of things. People don't sell lotus just because it went up $500 so they can make a profit on them. People will be sitting on lotuses for literally decades without selling them.
More people are probably realizing that the window on buying lotuses is closing in this price range. People hate to miss the window at, say, $2.5K and then have to drop $1.5K more on a copy of an unlimited lotus as that's naturally a very big increase both percentage and cash wise.
I think this is an issue with the Power 9 in general. People that were teenagers when the game first came out are now pushing 40. Many of them can afford to purchase these cards. With only an estimated 15,000 in existence and some number of them already destroyed, it is possible that we'll get to a point they aren't available for any price. Some vintage baseball cards only come up for auction every 5 or 10 years and others less than that. We could easily see something like that happen within our lifetimes.
Magic is reaching a point of transition. The question is are men their 40s going to want these cards?
Magic saw a huge uptick as those who were teenagers turned into their mid twenties and has disposable income.
But, the disposable income of people in their twenties is on the order of tens or hundreds of dollars.
In other words, imagine it's 2006 again. You want to buy a black lotus. It's $500. Can you afford that? The answer is yes. What about the mox sapphire? $300
Can you afford the beta lotus at $1000. If you reach for it, sure. The disposable income of the twenty somethings can sustain these prices.
But now? The prices of the power 9 have reached a point that is beyond the disposable income people see in their twenties.
When an unlimited lotus goes for a minimum of $3000 each, unless you're a programmer working in silicon valley or an engineer, this is going to be quite a stretch.
A beta lotus at 6-10k is even more unlikely.
An engineer in their 40s can afford these kind of toys. But is the demand and appeal still there for them? Does the 40+ market buy things from
nostalgia. Perhaps some do. But I dont think their emotional demand is the same as the twenty somethings. And that's my point.
The question now really is this: can magic turn this transition from idol of the twenty somethings into enduring generational collectible?
The price of a honus wagner baseball card is obviously not in demand from twenty somethings longing for nostalgia. It's moved well beyond that.
Same thing with a 1952 Mickey Mantle Rookie card.
I honestly think magic has a good shot of making the transition from twenty-something nostalgia toy into generational collectible that might be passed down to your kids.
In fact, of all the collectibles out there magic probably has the best shot of making it. Black lotus's price has marched on upward is a near straight line for years.
I believe they are in the midst of such a transition.
I generally agree with everything you're saying. 10 years ago, late 20 somethings were able to purchase those cards. As those 20 somethings become 30 and 40 somethings, disposable income for the high earners in those brackets goes up as well. And there certainly is a non-zero portion of them with the disposable income to purchase these cards. I think that much is obvious since the pricing has continued to skyrocket for these iconic pieces.
Looking around these forums, it seems like 1 out of every 3 members has been playing since the mid 90s. I know that's an exaggeration, but it doesn't take very many of them to purchase these cards to move the needle on the price since there are so few in existence.
Wait until these 40 somethings are 50 somethings and their kids graduate from college. They'll have all kinds of disposable income to burn on these cards. Those that still have the desire after 30 or 40 years of wanting it will finally be able to afford them.
There's similar upward momentum in the Collector's Edition and International Edition copies of Black Lotus too. Less than a couple years ago they were available for $200ish, and now they're difficult to find under $350. It speaks to the allure of this particular card that even the non-tournament legal versions are sought after.
The other thing to consider beyond just an increase in disposable income, is general inflationary pressures on highly collectible "older/rarer" items these days as people move away from less rare/less old collectibles as a way to stash their money in hopes of making a greater gain as an investment versus stashing money in a bank account or CD/Bond, or heck, even the stock market of late that hasn't moved much in about a year.
That aside, as well, you also have the value of other cards (especially from modern) having gone up significantly in recent years. Greatly increasing the amount of people who have enough value in cards/trade to be able to get cards like the power 9 without having to spend any (or very little) cash to get one.
Black Lotus also isn't a card you exactly see available all that often outside of from online stores or potentially older brick and mortar stores, there just aren't a lot of them around and eventually those who do want one, are going to have to pay ever the more to get one as time goes on.
Black Lotus plain and simply is the Holy Grail of the game of magic the gathering. Even people who don't play the game and have ever only heard of the game in passing, will often know about or at least heard of a card called Black Lotus and how iconic it is with the game.
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In the past three months, black lotuses have been steadily picked up, like on average 1 every 2 days at prices of 3k or higher.
I follow the lotus market, and this is considerably more than usual.
I remember trying to sell a lotus just last year and sales were probably 1 a week or 1 every 5 days. Based on my observations so far, the price of lotus hasn't yet swung up to reflect the new demand yet.
I'm going to divide the magic pricing cycle into 3 phases.
If I am a vendor selling snapcaster mages for $50 each, then in phase 1. I might have 25 snapcasters for sale at $50 each.
In phase 2, when buyers are buying, I might have 5 snapcasters left at $50 each. the price of the snapcaster has not yet increased, but the supply has certainly shrunk.
In phase 3, when I have 1 or 0 left. (or some other small number), I as the vendor will notice and raise the price of snapcaster. The new price listing might be like
4 snapcasters at $60 each.
I believe Black Lotus is in phase 2 right now.
EDH: Grand Arbiter $tax, Freyalise Stompy, Mimeoplasm Death From the Grave
1 every 2 days where? On Ebay?
It isn't as simple as those 3 phases you say. Caeteris paribus, if demand increases, prices also do. And when prices rise, more people are willing to sell. The opposite happens when demand shrinks or supply increases. It's a process that autocorrects continually.
The general rules of supply and demand are just a little different for cards like Lotus because the demand exists for a different reason and stems from a different audience.
EDH: Grand Arbiter $tax, Freyalise Stompy, Mimeoplasm Death From the Grave
Actually my three phases are more complicated than the conventional economics equilibrium, and that's the point. The point is in a market as illiquid as black lotus, the price will not rise and adjust so rapidly.
With gold or oil, demand or supply increases affect the highly liquid market rapidly.
But in the black lotus market, you literally have only 100-200 participants in the market at any given moment.
In other words, the Black lotus "market" is about 200 dudes/vendors posting on craigslist, ebay, facebook high end magic group, MKM, and what have you.
That's why you have to expand the model. You say if demand increases, prices also do. Sure fine. I agree with that. Econ agrees with you. But let's take that theory and apply to the 200 dudes.
And that's what I'm saying. Standard Econ theory as applied practically to the market of 200 dudes will function more similarly to how i described it.
Beta Lotus sold for ~ 5.5k 3/22
Beta Lotus BGS 8.5 sold for ~ 8.1k 3/21
Beta Lotus sold for ~ 6k 3/21
beta Lotus BGS 9 sold for ~ 13k 3/20
beta Lotus BGS 9.5 sold for ~ 39k 3/19 (signed)
UL lotus sold for ~ 3.2k 3/18
Alpha Lotus HP sold for ~ 6.4k Ides of March
Dan Bock Pony Lotus sold for 2.4k 3/14
Beta Lotus sold for 7.2k 3/12
Alpha Lotus BGS 9 sold for 21k 3/5
UL lotus sold for ~ 2.2k 3/5
UL lotus sold for ~ 3.1k 3/4
UL lotus sold for ~ 2.6k 3/1
I've followed the lotus market for a while, and I'm telling you this is a massive increase from the norm. Someone or some group of people are picking up lotuses significantly faster than before.
Based on my observations of the market, I would agree. Black Lotus is in a category all by itself.
It obeys NONE of the ordinary assumptions of magic pricing. It is pretty much THE status card people think about. It is the undisputed answer to the question "What's the most expensive magic card"
Sure there's fraternal exaltation, Proposal, misprints, or blue hurricanes. But the card that stands on its own merits is black lotus. Hopelessly overpowered, and the enabler of countless turn 1 kills, it iconically defines magic even outside magic. People who dont play magic wont know ancestral recall, but they might know of black lotus. It's price is partially responsible for it's infamy. It's the one card that X person payed 40,000....5000...20000....17000...for. What's shocking to me though is that it continues to gain. Normally a price spike would cause massive sell side pressure. But it hasnt happened.
EDH: Grand Arbiter $tax, Freyalise Stompy, Mimeoplasm Death From the Grave
More people are probably realizing that the window on buying lotuses is closing in this price range. People hate to miss the window at, say, $2.5K and then have to drop $1.5K more on a copy of an unlimited lotus as that's naturally a very big increase both percentage and cash wise.
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I think this is an issue with the Power 9 in general. People that were teenagers when the game first came out are now pushing 40. Many of them can afford to purchase these cards. With only an estimated 15,000 in existence and some number of them already destroyed, it is possible that we'll get to a point they aren't available for any price. Some vintage baseball cards only come up for auction every 5 or 10 years and others less than that. We could easily see something like that happen within our lifetimes.
Magic is reaching a point of transition. The question is are men their 40s going to want these cards?
Magic saw a huge uptick as those who were teenagers turned into their mid twenties and has disposable income.
But, the disposable income of people in their twenties is on the order of tens or hundreds of dollars.
In other words, imagine it's 2006 again. You want to buy a black lotus. It's $500. Can you afford that? The answer is yes. What about the mox sapphire? $300
Can you afford the beta lotus at $1000. If you reach for it, sure. The disposable income of the twenty somethings can sustain these prices.
But now? The prices of the power 9 have reached a point that is beyond the disposable income people see in their twenties.
When an unlimited lotus goes for a minimum of $3000 each, unless you're a programmer working in silicon valley or an engineer, this is going to be quite a stretch.
A beta lotus at 6-10k is even more unlikely.
An engineer in their 40s can afford these kind of toys. But is the demand and appeal still there for them? Does the 40+ market buy things from
nostalgia. Perhaps some do. But I dont think their emotional demand is the same as the twenty somethings. And that's my point.
The question now really is this: can magic turn this transition from idol of the twenty somethings into enduring generational collectible?
The price of a honus wagner baseball card is obviously not in demand from twenty somethings longing for nostalgia. It's moved well beyond that.
Same thing with a 1952 Mickey Mantle Rookie card.
I honestly think magic has a good shot of making the transition from twenty-something nostalgia toy into generational collectible that might be passed down to your kids.
In fact, of all the collectibles out there magic probably has the best shot of making it. Black lotus's price has marched on upward is a near straight line for years.
I believe they are in the midst of such a transition.
Looking around these forums, it seems like 1 out of every 3 members has been playing since the mid 90s. I know that's an exaggeration, but it doesn't take very many of them to purchase these cards to move the needle on the price since there are so few in existence.
Wait until these 40 somethings are 50 somethings and their kids graduate from college. They'll have all kinds of disposable income to burn on these cards. Those that still have the desire after 30 or 40 years of wanting it will finally be able to afford them.
That aside, as well, you also have the value of other cards (especially from modern) having gone up significantly in recent years. Greatly increasing the amount of people who have enough value in cards/trade to be able to get cards like the power 9 without having to spend any (or very little) cash to get one.
Black Lotus also isn't a card you exactly see available all that often outside of from online stores or potentially older brick and mortar stores, there just aren't a lot of them around and eventually those who do want one, are going to have to pay ever the more to get one as time goes on.
Black Lotus plain and simply is the Holy Grail of the game of magic the gathering. Even people who don't play the game and have ever only heard of the game in passing, will often know about or at least heard of a card called Black Lotus and how iconic it is with the game.