Wraith223, what if Sin Prodder said to reveal a random card from your deck, not the top card? Now your opponent isn't denying you the draw of an important card. You are just getting free damage or a free card every turn. Sure, you get whichever of those is less useful at the time, but it is still totally free.
If your deck is randomized (and you haven't been scrying recently) then revealing a random card is statistically identical to revealing from the top. The argument that you are being prevented from drawing a good card is totally incorrect - the card leaving your deck has nothing to do with your next draw. This is not like being locked out with Jace, the Mind Sculptor. This is just extra value.
I snatched up 2 asylum visitors at < $4 a piece; one for cube, one extra for no good reason. I'm a bit surprised they're still sitting so low. Are folks just wary about another blood scrivener/pain seer false alarm?
I snatched up 2 asylum visitors at < $4 a piece; one for cube, one extra for no good reason. I'm a bit surprised they're still sitting so low. Are folks just wary about another blood scrivener/pain seer false alarm?
well, it's not like the card is very good or has wide applications.
Aranthar, I can see your point on the random card drawn from deck theory. It's fine in the statistics level of thought, but horrid in the application of the card during play. Your win condition could go on the yard if you run less than a play set of the win condition. I would expect a deck that runs this to be faster than a control deck (could be wrong). I have terrible luck on draws and winning dice tosses. Thus I am extremely hesitant on cards such as this. I never win the dice toss for who goes first. :/
Aranthar, I can see your point on the random card drawn from deck theory. It's fine in the statistics level of thought, but horrid in the application of the card during play. Your win condition could go on the yard if you run less than a play set of the win condition. I would expect a deck that runs this to be faster than a control deck (could be wrong). I have terrible luck on draws and winning dice tosses. Thus I am extremely hesitant on cards such as this. I never win the dice toss for who goes first. :/
In a typical burn deck, you don't have 1 win condition, you have 16. If you put this guy in there, then you mill whatever and it's bonus damage. Plus he swings for three.
Or, like I said, he can also go in a ramp deck, and all of a sudden the opponent is choosing between letting you get that World Breaker or taking 7 to the dome and then you recur World Breaker. He's inevitability if you want to go that route. Plus he still swings for three.
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I have terrible luck on draws and winning dice tosses. Thus I am extremely hesitant on cards such as this. I never win the dice toss for who goes first. :/
It's interesting how you just went from criticizing the "bandwagon crowd"s ability to evaluate cards to suddenly basing your argument on something completely new (decks with 1 wincon), as well as citing some weird statistical anomaly when it comes to your own "bad luck". Yeah, you're hesitant on an objectively good card because it punishes players with bad luck. Makes it kinda hard to take your card evaluations seriously now.
Aranthar, I can see your point on the random card drawn from deck theory. It's fine in the statistics level of thought, but horrid in the application of the card during play. Your win condition could go on the yard if you run less than a play set of the win condition. I would expect a deck that runs this to be faster than a control deck (could be wrong). I have terrible luck on draws and winning dice tosses. Thus I am extremely hesitant on cards such as this. I never win the dice toss for who goes first. :/
Your arguments are invalid, it is as simple as that. And I actually sort of agree with you because I made similar points in a different thread. I think the dude is overrated, but to say it is because your opponent can keep you from drawing your wincon is just dumb. Let's say your deck has 40 cards left in it and you are looking for a specific 4-of. There is a 90% chance that the top card of your deck (or any randomly selected card) is NOT the card you were looking for. So they either give you this card, or it goes to the graveyard. Now there are 39 cards left in your deck and still 4 of the card you were looking for, so you actually increase your odds of getting one. Now it is only 0.3% more likely which is basically irrelevant, but still it does not hurt you. The card you are looking for could be the top card, it could be the second to top card, it could be on the bottom of your deck.
Assuming you are just unlucky is a terrible habit for a magic player to get into. It is really easy to say "wow, I am so unlucky I did not draw a removal in 3 turns when I play 10 kill spells in my deck." but if there were 50 cards left in your deck to start with, in three turns you would have less than a 50% chance to draw one. If you take this into consideration throughout a game, it will help you to become a better player by being able to forecast when to block, when to cast spells, etc... My guess is that if you keep track of how often you win the dice roll it will be way closer to 50% than to "never".
I agree with you that this guy is overrated but to say the reason he is overrated is because he can keep you from drawing what you want is bad math, it is bad logic, it is bad foresight, and it is bad magic.
I have terrible luck on draws and winning dice tosses. Thus I am extremely hesitant on cards such as this. I never win the dice toss for who goes first. :/
It's interesting how you just went from criticizing the "bandwagon crowd"s ability to evaluate cards to suddenly basing your argument on something completely new (decks with 1 wincon), as well as citing some weird statistical anomaly when it comes to your own "bad luck". Yeah, you're hesitant on an objectively good card because it punishes players with bad luck. Makes it kinda hard to take your card evaluations seriously now.
Let's focus on card evaluations.
I think Anguished Unmaking has the possibility to be one of the top rare cards of the set. The closest comparisons, Maelstrom Pulse and Abrupt Decay, have seen a lot of play in both Standard and Modern. If the life loss can be overcome, we are looking at the strongest removal spell in years.
Do we think Modern midrange or control decks can afford the three life?
I have terrible luck on draws and winning dice tosses. Thus I am extremely hesitant on cards such as this. I never win the dice toss for who goes first. :/
It's interesting how you just went from criticizing the "bandwagon crowd"s ability to evaluate cards to suddenly basing your argument on something completely new (decks with 1 wincon), as well as citing some weird statistical anomaly when it comes to your own "bad luck". Yeah, you're hesitant on an objectively good card because it punishes players with bad luck. Makes it kinda hard to take your card evaluations seriously now.
Let's focus on card evaluations.
I think Anguished Unmaking has the possibility to be one of the top rare cards of the set. The closest comparisons, Maelstrom Pulse and Abrupt Decay, have seen a lot of play in both Standard and Modern. If the life loss can be overcome, we are looking at the strongest removal spell in years.
Do we think Modern midrange or control decks can afford the three life?
It'll see some standard play, but I think that A: the format is looking fast and B: three life is sounding like a lot.
As for modern, that format is fast and three life feels like a big drawback. Realistically, most of the midrange decks will likely run B and G, meaning that Pulse or Decay are likely their go-to cards for flexible removal. Control decks, to the extent that they exist, would likely shy away from something that costs them life under most circumstances. If they were interested, it would be on the sideboard at best. If a deck that is mostly black and white needs this effect (I guess like tokens), it might make it to MD. In a weird way the life-costing manabase, necessity of thoughtseize in many black strategies, and awesomeness of Dark confidant in modern mean that most decks that could use it are already paying a lot of life for other effects that are less easily-replaced.
That having been said, it is in no way a bad card, and it will hold some value. However, it is the top 8 gameday promo, which means there is a not-insignificant additional supply to be had.
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I have terrible luck on draws and winning dice tosses. Thus I am extremely hesitant on cards such as this. I never win the dice toss for who goes first. :/
It's interesting how you just went from criticizing the "bandwagon crowd"s ability to evaluate cards to suddenly basing your argument on something completely new (decks with 1 wincon), as well as citing some weird statistical anomaly when it comes to your own "bad luck". Yeah, you're hesitant on an objectively good card because it punishes players with bad luck. Makes it kinda hard to take your card evaluations seriously now.
I evaluate all cards at their worst so I don't miss anything negative. Little mistake plays won or loose games, thus I am severely hesitant on cards such as this. I am fluid on my evaluations and am open to all evaluations and will always reconsider a stance if better evidence is present. I hope the ad hominem you gave made you feel better. Typical, nothing has changed here over years.
What do you all think of Cryptolith Rite? Commander will love it.
I think Anguished Unmaking has the possibility to be one of the top rare cards of the set. The closest comparisons, Maelstrom Pulse and Abrupt Decay, have seen a lot of play in both Standard and Modern. If the life loss can be overcome, we are looking at the strongest removal spell in years.
Do we think Modern midrange or control decks can afford the three life?
Three life is a big drawback in modern. It basically restricts the card to a one or two of in the decks that want any at all, which is not a lot of them. I could see things like BW tokens and the perennially hopeful Mardu midrange (aside: this is the deck that always feels like it's one card or one really solid decklist away from making a splash, and it's felt like that for many releases now) trying them out. It's best hope is fringe decks right now, but modern is going to get pretty shaken up at the same time this releases and it's possible one of those fringe decks has a little more game than it seems.
Legacy could make a little more use of it, but it's still pretty limited in where it fits. The big thing is that it has to beat out all of Abrupt Decay, in a format with exceptional mana fixing and low curves, Vindicate, which can hit lands, and Maelstrom Pulse, which wipes elemental and monk tokens. I can think of legacy decks that would try a copy or two, but none that have been dying to get that effect. Maybe something like Esper stoneblade, if that makes a bit of a comeback.
It's an instant EDH staple, so I would try and grab foil copies and game day copies if you can get them at a reasonable cost. The pimp versions of that card are going to hold value pretty well, especially once it goes out of print.
No idea about standard. I don't play that or follow it at all, so I'm terrible at evaluating cards in that context.
It has some potential in non-rotating formats, but there's going to be an enormous number of them out there. If you're looking at it from a value standpoint, the shinier the better.
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I have terrible luck on draws and winning dice tosses. Thus I am extremely hesitant on cards such as this. I never win the dice toss for who goes first. :/
It's interesting how you just went from criticizing the "bandwagon crowd"s ability to evaluate cards to suddenly basing your argument on something completely new (decks with 1 wincon), as well as citing some weird statistical anomaly when it comes to your own "bad luck". Yeah, you're hesitant on an objectively good card because it punishes players with bad luck. Makes it kinda hard to take your card evaluations seriously now.
I evaluate all cards at their worst so I don't miss anything negative. Little mistake plays won or loose games, thus I am severely hesitant on cards such as this. I am fluid on my evaluations and am open to all evaluations and will always reconsider a stance if better evidence is present. I hope the ad hominem you gave made you feel better. Typical, nothing has changed here over years.
When you decide to use derogatory terms about groups of fellow posters, you don't get to switch around and play the offended, decent guy who is above it all. You said what you said, and someone pointed out your flawed logic, and now you want to save face. That's all there is to it.
What do you all think of Cryptolith Rite? Commander will love it.
It's another Earthcraft for any EDH deck that wants it but i wouldn't expect it to mirror Earthcraft's price profile because apart from the mechanical similarity, none of the factors that drove Earthcraft so high over time exist for Cryptolith Rite.
Closest thing in Modern I would point to as a reasonable predictor would be Prismatic Omen but, then again, that card is fairly old and from a far-less-opened set to begin with and it has also been seen competitive play so there's more-than-casual demand for it.
I definitely would not preorder it--it'll come down. Since additional copies in play are completely redundant, I see less of a reason to expect it'll be a 4-of or something. That doesn't help its price either. I would expect it to be $3-5 range in a few weeks and once supply really catches up, maybe as low as $1-2 by mid-summer. Give it a few years, it will probably go up a bit but you will be waiting a VERY long time (like forever long) for it to ever reach Earthcraft prices.
What do you all think of Cryptolith Rite? Commander will love it.
It's another Earthcraft for any EDH deck that wants it but i wouldn't expect it to mirror Earthcraft's price profile because apart from the mechanical similarity, none of the factors that drove Earthcraft so high over time exist for Cryptolith Rite.
Closest thing in Modern I would point to as a reasonable predictor would be Prismatic Omen but, then again, that card is fairly old and from a far-less-opened set to begin with and it has also been seen competitive play so there's more-than-casual demand for it.
I definitely would not preorder it--it'll come down. Since additional copies in play are completely redundant, I see less of a reason to expect it'll be a 4-of or something. That doesn't help its price either. I would expect it to be $3-5 range in a few weeks and once supply really catches up, maybe as low as $1-2 by mid-summer. Give it a few years, it will probably go up a bit but you will be waiting a VERY long time (like forever long) for it to ever reach Earthcraft prices.
I don't think that Earthcraft - a Reserve list card that's banned in Legacy because of a degenerate combo - is the right comparison. This may be a similar intent to Earthcraft, but it's more like Gemhide Sliver. Token decks want this, anything that goes wide over several turns. Prismatic Omen is great in five-color-green decks that want to drop a couple big threats - land disruption is less prevalent than creature disruption. Cryptolith Rite is mana acceleration more than it is mana fixing. I concur that it's a $1, maybe $2 card.
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So, now that we have the full set, what's the opinion on Arlinn Kord's price? As a big werewolf fan, I'm obviously going to want a playset of this card and then some. She's definitely getting huge hype. I've seen many people call her the best card in the set, the chase mythic of the set, Modern playable, the new Huntmaster. Looks like she's going for just under $30 right now. I'm planning on trying to get a set next week, but should I? If Chandra, Flamecaller can be a $20+ card even though it's still new, surely she'll be at least that much long-term? Then again, Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is pretty powerful and he dipped to $15~ish before climbing back up.
Sticking with the Planeswalker theme, what about Sorin, Grim Nemesis? I love this card and it seems incredibly powerful, but some people are being less-than-impressed by it. I was apparently very wrong about Chandra, Flamecaller. I thought she'd be a $9 planeswalker that was a 1-2 of in a fringe deck and only wanted by a couple of EDH players. Maybe I'm wrong about Sorin too.
As a general rule if you purchase anything in the next month from SoI, you'll be overpaying. There are a few cases where cards take off and get more valuable, but pre-release pricing is almost universally higher than it will be after things settle down.
Chandra, Flamecaller has no playability in extended formats, save possibly for EDH. She is solely a standard playable card. That demand alone will not keep her at $20+ when she rotates out in a year. In April, 2017, I'd bet that Chandra will be a $3-4 card.
Sorin, Grim Nemesis, like every other 6 casting cost planeswalker will be worth $3-4 when he rotates out in October, 2017. The market just has not been kind to them. For reference, see Elspeth, Sun's Champion. For standard, everything will depend on if a viable control deck emerges in Standard. I just don't know if we'll see one or not. If we do, this guy's price could easily mirror that of Dragonlord Ojutai. I'm somewhat skeptical that a viable 3 color control deck will appear though and would guess that he'll be a $7 card before Eldritch Moon comes out.
Arlinn Kord is an interesting one. Though she suffers from a lot of the same problems that Huntmaster has. Neither will see play in legacy or vintage, so I'm only looking at modern viability. The issue with Huntmaster of the Fells is that it doesn't really have a home in Modern. That's not to say it'll always be that way, but at best it's been a 1-2 of and typically sideboard card at that in Jund. The 4 drop slot in Jund is extremely competitive and the deck only plays a few cards at that casting cost.
My suspicion is that Arlinn will be a $10-15 card during her standard life (give her a month to let her price tank) and will be able to be had for $3 or $4 at her rotation in October 2017. I just see a lot of situations coming up where you really want to use one of Arlinn's abilities and the wrong side of her is flipped up.
I suppose I should have asked - are you looking to purchase for standard use or for casual/eternal applications?
As a general rule if you purchase anything in the next month from SoI, you'll be overpaying. There are a few cases where cards take off and get more valuable, but pre-release pricing is almost universally higher than it will be after things settle down.
Yep. This. Exactly.
I'd say that the exact amount of the drop is negotiable (Elspeth is still $6, even after a duel deck printing), but yeah, EDH alone won't sustain nonfoils. Definitely give Arlinn time to drop.
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So, now that we have the full set, what's the opinion on Arlinn Kord's price? As a big werewolf fan, I'm obviously going to want a playset of this card and then some. She's definitely getting huge hype. I've seen many people call her the best card in the set, the chase mythic of the set, Modern playable, the new Huntmaster. Looks like she's going for just under $30 right now. I'm planning on trying to get a set next week, but should I? If Chandra, Flamecaller can be a $20+ card even though it's still new, surely she'll be at least that much long-term? Then again, Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is pretty powerful and he dipped to $15~ish before climbing back up.
Sticking with the Planeswalker theme, what about Sorin, Grim Nemesis? I love this card and it seems incredibly powerful, but some people are being less-than-impressed by it. I was apparently very wrong about Chandra, Flamecaller. I thought she'd be a $9 planeswalker that was a 1-2 of in a fringe deck and only wanted by a couple of EDH players. Maybe I'm wrong about Sorin too.
Outside of the general merit of always waiting before buying cards from a new set, Arlinn Kord strikes me as a card that may start losing value relatively early on. It isn't that she is bad, but I suspect that she will be more awkward to run with than people are assuming. Moreover, unless I've missed something, GR standard decks that are midrange (or otherwise creature-based, i.e. non-ramp) aren't as obvious as potential BG or BR decks. That having been said, she is powerful, and even comes at a time when direct damaging a PW for 3 isn't as easy as it has been in the past (burn is a bit dicey ATM). I really feel like she'll start to rise when 3 color manabases get figured out more reliably. She's still a marquee card for SOI, and the demand is there, so expect her to move down from $30 somewhat slowly, even if the process begins relatively soon. As for modern, she doesn't have a place at the moment and is unlikely to be propped up by demand from that format.
Sorin, Grim Nemesis is also a victim of our current manabases. I feel like he is excellent as a control finisher, but getting to esper seems clunky. Even then, he'll be a 1 or 2 of probably. I kind of expect him to be a $15-ish card when that deck emerges. Also, there's no place for him in modern.
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Sorin, Grim Nemesis is also a victim of our current manabases. I feel like he is excellent as a control finisher, but getting to esper seems clunky. Even then, he'll be a 1 or 2 of probably. I kind of expect him to be a $15-ish card when that deck emerges. Also, there's no place for him in modern.
Biggest problem I see for Sorin is that he's terrific when you're already ahead but looks decidedly worse if you're under any sort of pressure. Compare him to 6-mana Elspeth or Chandra here--not even close, really.
(Entirely subjective, but I think the fact he's the third W/B Sorin probably cools his casual demand a little bit too. We have plenty of not-terrible options here already.)
Sorin, Grim Nemesis is also a victim of our current manabases. I feel like he is excellent as a control finisher, but getting to esper seems clunky. Even then, he'll be a 1 or 2 of probably. I kind of expect him to be a $15-ish card when that deck emerges. Also, there's no place for him in modern.
Biggest problem I see for Sorin is that he's terrific when you're already ahead but looks decidedly worse if you're under any sort of pressure. Compare him to 6-mana Elspeth or Chandra here--not even close, really.
(Entirely subjective, but I think the fact he's the third W/B Sorin probably cools his casual demand a little bit too. We have plenty of not-terrible options here already.)
I guess he lacks the ability to sweep the board that has bolstered other 6cc 'walkers. However, his capacity to kill a creature and gain you life is pretty excellent when you are behind. Moreover, his plus one is direct card advantage and can be used for a slow-kill. He's not what you want when the board is swamped, but he is solid when they are relying on fewer midsized creatures. Again, I'm not saying he's great, but I think he may have a role in control decks (which will probably still be around due to the presence of JVP and Dragonlord Ojutai after rotation). That all assumes we don't just give up on three color-manabases, however.
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She is worth $10 though for no reasons. So he probably will be too.
Crap--I've stumbled into the unenviable position of defending a mediocre card. But, yeah, I think Sorin has better legs than Narset Transcendent. For one, he can impact the board in meaningful ways, while she really struggled to do so. He is also guaranteed card advantage, while she's pretty dicey on the CA front. On the other hand, she only cost 4, while he costs 6, but, again, that's why I think he's mediocre. As for Narset, I think her price is propped up by better-than-average casual demand (people in my area love rebounding time warps). That having been said, I don't think $10 is out of the question for Sorin either, I just think he's a bit more playable in standard.
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Westvale Abbey has skyrocketed to $10 preorder. I'm glad I got my $4 copies but what happened - did some dolt write an article? It's a colorless land that is all upside - of course people will play it.
I think Anguished Unmaking is a trap. Or at least, I'm willing to wait to see what happens because I see a card that has nowhere to go but down. 3 mana exiling removal is powerful but I don't see it as ubiquitous as Hero's Downfall during it's run in standard, nor is it good enough to see a lot of play in Modern or Legacy. The 3 life paid is just too much of a drawback in formats where burn and tokens can show up. Maybe EDH, but even then I think you'd rather have Utter End.
Declaration in Stone is a better choice, IMHO. I got some at 2.50, they look to be creeping towards $4 a piece. Solid removal, even with the cluestones. The cluestones aren't exactly free draws, you know?
I think Sin Prodder is good. Not Bob or Snappy good, but good. It'll see play. I think a lot of the people negging it just don't understand it but potential card draw/damage on a decent body? Why not? Letting your opponent "filter" the top card of your deck? Who cares? That's not a disadvantage on random top decks.
I like Ever After as a bulk rare. Put two creatures into play for 6. Seems good, or at least better than .60.
Westvale Abbey has skyrocketed to $10 preorder. I'm glad I got my $4 copies but what happened - did some dolt write an article? It's a colorless land that is all upside - of course people will play it.
Two articles were written about how awesome the card is and the CFB article calls it "the best land in standard."
If your deck is randomized (and you haven't been scrying recently) then revealing a random card is statistically identical to revealing from the top. The argument that you are being prevented from drawing a good card is totally incorrect - the card leaving your deck has nothing to do with your next draw. This is not like being locked out with Jace, the Mind Sculptor. This is just extra value.
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well, it's not like the card is very good or has wide applications.
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In a typical burn deck, you don't have 1 win condition, you have 16. If you put this guy in there, then you mill whatever and it's bonus damage. Plus he swings for three.
Or, like I said, he can also go in a ramp deck, and all of a sudden the opponent is choosing between letting you get that World Breaker or taking 7 to the dome and then you recur World Breaker. He's inevitability if you want to go that route. Plus he still swings for three.
It's interesting how you just went from criticizing the "bandwagon crowd"s ability to evaluate cards to suddenly basing your argument on something completely new (decks with 1 wincon), as well as citing some weird statistical anomaly when it comes to your own "bad luck". Yeah, you're hesitant on an objectively good card because it punishes players with bad luck. Makes it kinda hard to take your card evaluations seriously now.
Your arguments are invalid, it is as simple as that. And I actually sort of agree with you because I made similar points in a different thread. I think the dude is overrated, but to say it is because your opponent can keep you from drawing your wincon is just dumb. Let's say your deck has 40 cards left in it and you are looking for a specific 4-of. There is a 90% chance that the top card of your deck (or any randomly selected card) is NOT the card you were looking for. So they either give you this card, or it goes to the graveyard. Now there are 39 cards left in your deck and still 4 of the card you were looking for, so you actually increase your odds of getting one. Now it is only 0.3% more likely which is basically irrelevant, but still it does not hurt you. The card you are looking for could be the top card, it could be the second to top card, it could be on the bottom of your deck.
Assuming you are just unlucky is a terrible habit for a magic player to get into. It is really easy to say "wow, I am so unlucky I did not draw a removal in 3 turns when I play 10 kill spells in my deck." but if there were 50 cards left in your deck to start with, in three turns you would have less than a 50% chance to draw one. If you take this into consideration throughout a game, it will help you to become a better player by being able to forecast when to block, when to cast spells, etc... My guess is that if you keep track of how often you win the dice roll it will be way closer to 50% than to "never".
I agree with you that this guy is overrated but to say the reason he is overrated is because he can keep you from drawing what you want is bad math, it is bad logic, it is bad foresight, and it is bad magic.
Let's focus on card evaluations.
I think Anguished Unmaking has the possibility to be one of the top rare cards of the set. The closest comparisons, Maelstrom Pulse and Abrupt Decay, have seen a lot of play in both Standard and Modern. If the life loss can be overcome, we are looking at the strongest removal spell in years.
Do we think Modern midrange or control decks can afford the three life?
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It'll see some standard play, but I think that A: the format is looking fast and B: three life is sounding like a lot.
As for modern, that format is fast and three life feels like a big drawback. Realistically, most of the midrange decks will likely run B and G, meaning that Pulse or Decay are likely their go-to cards for flexible removal. Control decks, to the extent that they exist, would likely shy away from something that costs them life under most circumstances. If they were interested, it would be on the sideboard at best. If a deck that is mostly black and white needs this effect (I guess like tokens), it might make it to MD. In a weird way the life-costing manabase, necessity of thoughtseize in many black strategies, and awesomeness of Dark confidant in modern mean that most decks that could use it are already paying a lot of life for other effects that are less easily-replaced.
That having been said, it is in no way a bad card, and it will hold some value. However, it is the top 8 gameday promo, which means there is a not-insignificant additional supply to be had.
I evaluate all cards at their worst so I don't miss anything negative. Little mistake plays won or loose games, thus I am severely hesitant on cards such as this. I am fluid on my evaluations and am open to all evaluations and will always reconsider a stance if better evidence is present. I hope the ad hominem you gave made you feel better. Typical, nothing has changed here over years.
What do you all think of Cryptolith Rite? Commander will love it.
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Legacy could make a little more use of it, but it's still pretty limited in where it fits. The big thing is that it has to beat out all of Abrupt Decay, in a format with exceptional mana fixing and low curves, Vindicate, which can hit lands, and Maelstrom Pulse, which wipes elemental and monk tokens. I can think of legacy decks that would try a copy or two, but none that have been dying to get that effect. Maybe something like Esper stoneblade, if that makes a bit of a comeback.
It's an instant EDH staple, so I would try and grab foil copies and game day copies if you can get them at a reasonable cost. The pimp versions of that card are going to hold value pretty well, especially once it goes out of print.
No idea about standard. I don't play that or follow it at all, so I'm terrible at evaluating cards in that context.
It has some potential in non-rotating formats, but there's going to be an enormous number of them out there. If you're looking at it from a value standpoint, the shinier the better.
When you decide to use derogatory terms about groups of fellow posters, you don't get to switch around and play the offended, decent guy who is above it all. You said what you said, and someone pointed out your flawed logic, and now you want to save face. That's all there is to it.
It's another Earthcraft for any EDH deck that wants it but i wouldn't expect it to mirror Earthcraft's price profile because apart from the mechanical similarity, none of the factors that drove Earthcraft so high over time exist for Cryptolith Rite.
Closest thing in Modern I would point to as a reasonable predictor would be Prismatic Omen but, then again, that card is fairly old and from a far-less-opened set to begin with and it has also been seen competitive play so there's more-than-casual demand for it.
I definitely would not preorder it--it'll come down. Since additional copies in play are completely redundant, I see less of a reason to expect it'll be a 4-of or something. That doesn't help its price either. I would expect it to be $3-5 range in a few weeks and once supply really catches up, maybe as low as $1-2 by mid-summer. Give it a few years, it will probably go up a bit but you will be waiting a VERY long time (like forever long) for it to ever reach Earthcraft prices.
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I don't think that Earthcraft - a Reserve list card that's banned in Legacy because of a degenerate combo - is the right comparison. This may be a similar intent to Earthcraft, but it's more like Gemhide Sliver. Token decks want this, anything that goes wide over several turns. Prismatic Omen is great in five-color-green decks that want to drop a couple big threats - land disruption is less prevalent than creature disruption. Cryptolith Rite is mana acceleration more than it is mana fixing. I concur that it's a $1, maybe $2 card.
Sticking with the Planeswalker theme, what about Sorin, Grim Nemesis? I love this card and it seems incredibly powerful, but some people are being less-than-impressed by it. I was apparently very wrong about Chandra, Flamecaller. I thought she'd be a $9 planeswalker that was a 1-2 of in a fringe deck and only wanted by a couple of EDH players. Maybe I'm wrong about Sorin too.
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Chandra, Flamecaller has no playability in extended formats, save possibly for EDH. She is solely a standard playable card. That demand alone will not keep her at $20+ when she rotates out in a year. In April, 2017, I'd bet that Chandra will be a $3-4 card.
Sorin, Grim Nemesis, like every other 6 casting cost planeswalker will be worth $3-4 when he rotates out in October, 2017. The market just has not been kind to them. For reference, see Elspeth, Sun's Champion. For standard, everything will depend on if a viable control deck emerges in Standard. I just don't know if we'll see one or not. If we do, this guy's price could easily mirror that of Dragonlord Ojutai. I'm somewhat skeptical that a viable 3 color control deck will appear though and would guess that he'll be a $7 card before Eldritch Moon comes out.
Arlinn Kord is an interesting one. Though she suffers from a lot of the same problems that Huntmaster has. Neither will see play in legacy or vintage, so I'm only looking at modern viability. The issue with Huntmaster of the Fells is that it doesn't really have a home in Modern. That's not to say it'll always be that way, but at best it's been a 1-2 of and typically sideboard card at that in Jund. The 4 drop slot in Jund is extremely competitive and the deck only plays a few cards at that casting cost.
My suspicion is that Arlinn will be a $10-15 card during her standard life (give her a month to let her price tank) and will be able to be had for $3 or $4 at her rotation in October 2017. I just see a lot of situations coming up where you really want to use one of Arlinn's abilities and the wrong side of her is flipped up.
I suppose I should have asked - are you looking to purchase for standard use or for casual/eternal applications?
Yep. This. Exactly.
I'd say that the exact amount of the drop is negotiable (Elspeth is still $6, even after a duel deck printing), but yeah, EDH alone won't sustain nonfoils. Definitely give Arlinn time to drop.
Outside of the general merit of always waiting before buying cards from a new set, Arlinn Kord strikes me as a card that may start losing value relatively early on. It isn't that she is bad, but I suspect that she will be more awkward to run with than people are assuming. Moreover, unless I've missed something, GR standard decks that are midrange (or otherwise creature-based, i.e. non-ramp) aren't as obvious as potential BG or BR decks. That having been said, she is powerful, and even comes at a time when direct damaging a PW for 3 isn't as easy as it has been in the past (burn is a bit dicey ATM). I really feel like she'll start to rise when 3 color manabases get figured out more reliably. She's still a marquee card for SOI, and the demand is there, so expect her to move down from $30 somewhat slowly, even if the process begins relatively soon. As for modern, she doesn't have a place at the moment and is unlikely to be propped up by demand from that format.
Sorin, Grim Nemesis is also a victim of our current manabases. I feel like he is excellent as a control finisher, but getting to esper seems clunky. Even then, he'll be a 1 or 2 of probably. I kind of expect him to be a $15-ish card when that deck emerges. Also, there's no place for him in modern.
Biggest problem I see for Sorin is that he's terrific when you're already ahead but looks decidedly worse if you're under any sort of pressure. Compare him to 6-mana Elspeth or Chandra here--not even close, really.
(Entirely subjective, but I think the fact he's the third W/B Sorin probably cools his casual demand a little bit too. We have plenty of not-terrible options here already.)
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I guess he lacks the ability to sweep the board that has bolstered other 6cc 'walkers. However, his capacity to kill a creature and gain you life is pretty excellent when you are behind. Moreover, his plus one is direct card advantage and can be used for a slow-kill. He's not what you want when the board is swamped, but he is solid when they are relying on fewer midsized creatures. Again, I'm not saying he's great, but I think he may have a role in control decks (which will probably still be around due to the presence of JVP and Dragonlord Ojutai after rotation). That all assumes we don't just give up on three color-manabases, however.
She is worth $10 though for no reasons. So he probably will be too.
Crap--I've stumbled into the unenviable position of defending a mediocre card. But, yeah, I think Sorin has better legs than Narset Transcendent. For one, he can impact the board in meaningful ways, while she really struggled to do so. He is also guaranteed card advantage, while she's pretty dicey on the CA front. On the other hand, she only cost 4, while he costs 6, but, again, that's why I think he's mediocre. As for Narset, I think her price is propped up by better-than-average casual demand (people in my area love rebounding time warps). That having been said, I don't think $10 is out of the question for Sorin either, I just think he's a bit more playable in standard.
I think Anguished Unmaking is a trap. Or at least, I'm willing to wait to see what happens because I see a card that has nowhere to go but down. 3 mana exiling removal is powerful but I don't see it as ubiquitous as Hero's Downfall during it's run in standard, nor is it good enough to see a lot of play in Modern or Legacy. The 3 life paid is just too much of a drawback in formats where burn and tokens can show up. Maybe EDH, but even then I think you'd rather have Utter End.
Declaration in Stone is a better choice, IMHO. I got some at 2.50, they look to be creeping towards $4 a piece. Solid removal, even with the cluestones. The cluestones aren't exactly free draws, you know?
I think Sin Prodder is good. Not Bob or Snappy good, but good. It'll see play. I think a lot of the people negging it just don't understand it but potential card draw/damage on a decent body? Why not? Letting your opponent "filter" the top card of your deck? Who cares? That's not a disadvantage on random top decks.
I like Ever After as a bulk rare. Put two creatures into play for 6. Seems good, or at least better than .60.
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Two articles were written about how awesome the card is and the CFB article calls it "the best land in standard."
http://www.starcitygames.com/article/32680_Three-Up-Three-Down.html
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/4-keys-to-week-1-of-the-new-standard/ - Point #4