I'm sorry I don't follow the discussion. If you have a specific inquiry relating to my post you'll have to be more clear and I will respond. "High dollar cards" and "couple of bucks" are contradictory terms.
What I mean by that is that money cards typically don't cost much when first released. Cards like Blood Moon, Glimpse of Nature, Through the Breach, Sensei's Divining Top, Lion's Eye Diamond, Kiki-Jiki, Staff of Domination, Goyf etc etc... were not money cards starting off. Just because a card from Oath is bulk right now doesn't mean it will be 6 months to a year from now. Expeditions are a minor factor and when packs quit being popped and supply diminishes some expeditions won't be driving prices up or down.
Do you think that new Jace will have the price trajectory of the Vryn one? Not in absolute dollar price but in terms of raising.
No. It'll start high and sink to $10 with some ups and downs in there. I'd look at Tamiyo because this is just a reprisal of Tamiyo with someone in Marketing saying "Jace looks better on packs."
Do you think that new Jace will have the price trajectory of the Vryn one? Not in absolute dollar price but in terms of raising.
JVP is kind of a special card in that has eternal playability. Moreover, it was widely mis-evaluated upon release, so I wouldn't expect it to take off like a rocket.
Honestly new Jace is kind of mediocre--his abilities aren't bad, but they aren't exciting either. 5cc also feels like a lot. He may see some play, but I don't know of anything off the top of my head that really wants him. Now that I think about it, he feels a lot like Ob Nixilis Reignited--the first two abilities are very similar. Jace's +1 is better, but Ob's - ability is better and both have durdle-y ultimates.
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I'm sorry I don't follow the discussion. If you have a specific inquiry relating to my post you'll have to be more clear and I will respond. "High dollar cards" and "couple of bucks" are contradictory terms.
What I mean by that is that money cards typically don't cost much when first released. Cards like Blood Moon, Glimpse of Nature, Through the Breach, Sensei's Divining Top, Lion's Eye Diamond, Kiki-Jiki, Staff of Domination, Goyf etc etc... were not money cards starting off. Just because a card from Oath is bulk right now doesn't mean it will be 6 months to a year from now. Expeditions are a minor factor and when packs quit being popped and supply diminishes some expeditions won't be driving prices up or down.
What you suggest is called hoarding. Hanging onto everything for years and years in the hope something might go up. Somebody has to do it? Many people just can't be bothered. I just pulled a giant stack of KTK and FRF rares out of my trade folder. What am I supposed to do with them? Perhaps put them in a box and throw it down the back of the top shelf in the closet?
The fact of the matter is here and now the supply of BFZ and OGW is hugely exaggerated because people wanted to open expeditions. One friend of mine opened 8+ boxes of BFZ, we don't know the exact number because I think he is a little embarrassed he didn't actually pull an expedition after spending all that money.
This means everything in those sets has an absolute glut of supply. There are probably close to millions of Reality Smashers for every Through the Breach, who really knows. Wizards keeps print run information a closely guarded secret to stop speculators having the power to destroy the market for cards that would be confirmed to be very scarce.
Without any extra value in SOI packs it will follow a more traditional pattern of economics. Once the box price reaches parity with the expected value of cards that can be opened the top end cards will rise to soak that value as the bottom end drops off into bulk. This is the point where people stop relying on luck to get the cards they want and start buying singles. Getting a bad box is simply not worth it for most people, it might even out over a case but that would be a serious investment in time, marketing and salesmanship to be able to sell of the excess of things you don't actually want or need.
It is very likely that this will not be opened in massive numbers. There might be some good deals to be had. Never guaranteed but likely.
how about the new sigarda? i still like the old one but not sure bout this new one
Unless we see something to really make Human Tribal AND a need to give them hexproof I cannot see her settling at more than $5. 5$ is only because if casual demand and not even really much in EDH since the things she wants to do, other generals do it better.
4 good walkers and no rare dual land cycle? Really?
That makes for a very top heavy set if this is the case.
Sigarda and Olivia look like being bulk to me. Big names but poor compared to their originals.
Avacyn is well overpriced, stay well clear. Will be less than $10.
I can't believe the price SCG put Olivia up at. I think she's bulk.
Gah, I agree. I was hoping this set would be a little more even-handed, but no rare duals is off-putting. Maybe they're holding out on some strong madness cards (probably not, I bet it is mostly limited).
I also agree that Sigarda and Olivia 2.0 are both pretty weak for what they offer. Sigarda may have some casual demand, but I don't even see that for Olivia. Even if there are near-broken madness cards, she's very selective about when you can discard, so I'm not a fan.
Avacyn is a bit better IMO--not $20 better, but better. She's almost like a 5cc removal spell that leaves an angel around afterward. The flipping effect is actually sort of awkward. Still, I think she's strong enough to see play in standard; maybe a significant amount.
Honestly, I think the walkers are a bit dicey as well--the only clear winner is the werewolf. Jace and Nahiri are both middle-of-the road, probably playable in some decks but not too many. Sorin has a good powerlevel, but is pretty expensive, so it remains to be seen if he can really take off.
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I've just had another look at the SCG prices and I'm gobsmacked they started Jace so high.
Every mythic is $20-$30 according to them when not long ago they promised they would no pull this stunt again. Very bad taste in my mouth.
I think I have to rethink my strategy for acquiring the cards in this set completely. Waiting for the full spoiler might be the best thing to do.
I will still play prerelease but if you don't open enough walkers you're going to go home very disappointed.
For what it's worth, Jace started at $14.99, whereas Nahiri and Sorin started at $19.99, and Arlinn started at $29.99. He was actually the cheapest one of the bunch to start with.
I agree; SCG was one of the only places I could find a price for Jace, and at $30, def held off. The new Sorin looks good, so prob going to let prerelease hype die down and hope to get the 'walkers for decent prices.
Jeez, how is Jace at $30? Are they seeing something I'm not? I saw him a bunch cheaper yesterday, so that means a lot of people pre-ordered him.
I have no idea. I'm looking at all of the new walkers and nothing about any of them says "Hi-octane competitive." They look like more casual cards that are going to have a hard time holding up even in EDH. So I have no idea. I just don't get that people would see these as a good investment in a set that's clearly forcing aggro over control (or am I totally wrong?)
Jeez, how is Jace at $30? Are they seeing something I'm not? I saw him a bunch cheaper yesterday, so that means a lot of people pre-ordered him.
I have no idea. I'm looking at all of the new walkers and nothing about any of them says "Hi-octane competitive." They look like more casual cards that are going to have a hard time holding up even in EDH. So I have no idea. I just don't get that people would see these as a good investment in a set that's clearly forcing aggro over control (or am I totally wrong?)
OK, strange idea--could there be some kind of weird price-by-association effect given the absurd value of Jace, Vryn's Prodigy? I don't think I've ever seen it (so it could be complete bull), but something like "I missed out on JVP, I'm not going to miss out on the next Jace?" I mean we've had tons of good and bad Jaces (is that really the plural?), so one might imagine we would have seen such a phenomena before, if it exists.
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OK, strange idea--could there be some kind of weird price-by-association effect given the absurd value of Jace, Vryn's Prodigy? I don't think I've ever seen it (so it could be complete bull), but something like "I missed out on JVP, I'm not going to miss out on the next Jace?" I mean we've had tons of good and bad Jaces (is that really the plural?), so one might imagine we would have seen such a phenomena before, if it exists.
It happened with Jace 3. A lot of people identify branding more than card mechanics.
is everyone in agreeance that Olivia looks UNDERPOWERED????? 'splain!?
3/3 flyer for 3, discard engine that pump-hastes dudes on eotb? I'm not seeing her bad side?
She's not underpowered, per se, but currently it looks like she only fits into one deck, a Vampire-based R/B madness deck. Unless she ends up being way, way better than expected and dominating the format, she has an absolute ceiling on her price because of her narrowness. My guess is that she'll top out around $15-20 if Vampires-Madness is competitive, and much lower if not.
Drana, Liberator of Malakir had the same problem. She's objectively a powerful card but the deck that wants her never materialized and she ended up a $5 mythic until she rebounded because of the Shadows of Innistrad speculation.
is everyone in agreeance that Olivia looks UNDERPOWERED????? 'splain!?
3/3 flyer for 3, discard engine that pump-hastes dudes on eotb? I'm not seeing her bad side?
So...I'm willing to be wrong, but I don't think much of her. A 3/3 flyer for 3 is OK, but her other ability requires you both have other creatures to cast AND cards you want to get rid of. Sure madness may be a thing, but even then, there are less conditional enablers.
Also, I think Drana, Liberator of Malakir is just better at doing what Olivia 2 would like to do much of the time.
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Who said there is no dual land cycle? There is space left on the spoiler for 5 cards in the land slot. That would likely be a cycle of allied coloured lands.
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What I mean by that is that money cards typically don't cost much when first released. Cards like Blood Moon, Glimpse of Nature, Through the Breach, Sensei's Divining Top, Lion's Eye Diamond, Kiki-Jiki, Staff of Domination, Goyf etc etc... were not money cards starting off. Just because a card from Oath is bulk right now doesn't mean it will be 6 months to a year from now. Expeditions are a minor factor and when packs quit being popped and supply diminishes some expeditions won't be driving prices up or down.
No. It'll start high and sink to $10 with some ups and downs in there. I'd look at Tamiyo because this is just a reprisal of Tamiyo with someone in Marketing saying "Jace looks better on packs."
(Long term, if it sticks it could go to $20)
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
JVP is kind of a special card in that has eternal playability. Moreover, it was widely mis-evaluated upon release, so I wouldn't expect it to take off like a rocket.
Honestly new Jace is kind of mediocre--his abilities aren't bad, but they aren't exciting either. 5cc also feels like a lot. He may see some play, but I don't know of anything off the top of my head that really wants him. Now that I think about it, he feels a lot like Ob Nixilis Reignited--the first two abilities are very similar. Jace's +1 is better, but Ob's - ability is better and both have durdle-y ultimates.
What you suggest is called hoarding. Hanging onto everything for years and years in the hope something might go up. Somebody has to do it? Many people just can't be bothered. I just pulled a giant stack of KTK and FRF rares out of my trade folder. What am I supposed to do with them? Perhaps put them in a box and throw it down the back of the top shelf in the closet?
The fact of the matter is here and now the supply of BFZ and OGW is hugely exaggerated because people wanted to open expeditions. One friend of mine opened 8+ boxes of BFZ, we don't know the exact number because I think he is a little embarrassed he didn't actually pull an expedition after spending all that money.
This means everything in those sets has an absolute glut of supply. There are probably close to millions of Reality Smashers for every Through the Breach, who really knows. Wizards keeps print run information a closely guarded secret to stop speculators having the power to destroy the market for cards that would be confirmed to be very scarce.
Without any extra value in SOI packs it will follow a more traditional pattern of economics. Once the box price reaches parity with the expected value of cards that can be opened the top end cards will rise to soak that value as the bottom end drops off into bulk. This is the point where people stop relying on luck to get the cards they want and start buying singles. Getting a bad box is simply not worth it for most people, it might even out over a case but that would be a serious investment in time, marketing and salesmanship to be able to sell of the excess of things you don't actually want or need.
It is very likely that this will not be opened in massive numbers. There might be some good deals to be had. Never guaranteed but likely.
Mythic rarity will blow that price up imo.
:symu::symr::symw::symb::symg: Dream Halls :symu::symr::symw::symb::symg:
:symu::symw: U/W/x Landstill (now Miracles) :symu::symw:
:symu::symu: Merfolk :symu::symu:
contact me!
Unless we see something to really make Human Tribal AND a need to give them hexproof I cannot see her settling at more than $5. 5$ is only because if casual demand and not even really much in EDH since the things she wants to do, other generals do it better.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
That makes for a very top heavy set if this is the case.
Sigarda and Olivia look like being bulk to me. Big names but poor compared to their originals.
Avacyn is well overpriced, stay well clear. Will be less than $10.
I can't believe the price SCG put Olivia up at. I think she's bulk.
Gah, I agree. I was hoping this set would be a little more even-handed, but no rare duals is off-putting. Maybe they're holding out on some strong madness cards (probably not, I bet it is mostly limited).
I also agree that Sigarda and Olivia 2.0 are both pretty weak for what they offer. Sigarda may have some casual demand, but I don't even see that for Olivia. Even if there are near-broken madness cards, she's very selective about when you can discard, so I'm not a fan.
Avacyn is a bit better IMO--not $20 better, but better. She's almost like a 5cc removal spell that leaves an angel around afterward. The flipping effect is actually sort of awkward. Still, I think she's strong enough to see play in standard; maybe a significant amount.
Honestly, I think the walkers are a bit dicey as well--the only clear winner is the werewolf. Jace and Nahiri are both middle-of-the road, probably playable in some decks but not too many. Sorin has a good powerlevel, but is pretty expensive, so it remains to be seen if he can really take off.
Every mythic is $20-$30 according to them when not long ago they promised they would no pull this stunt again. Very bad taste in my mouth.
I think I have to rethink my strategy for acquiring the cards in this set completely. Waiting for the full spoiler might be the best thing to do.
I will still play prerelease but if you don't open enough walkers you're going to go home very disappointed.
For what it's worth, Jace started at $14.99, whereas Nahiri and Sorin started at $19.99, and Arlinn started at $29.99. He was actually the cheapest one of the bunch to start with.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
what other lands are we missing?
filters too right? or allied pain lands?
OK, strange idea--could there be some kind of weird price-by-association effect given the absurd value of Jace, Vryn's Prodigy? I don't think I've ever seen it (so it could be complete bull), but something like "I missed out on JVP, I'm not going to miss out on the next Jace?" I mean we've had tons of good and bad Jaces (is that really the plural?), so one might imagine we would have seen such a phenomena before, if it exists.
It happened with Jace 3. A lot of people identify branding more than card mechanics.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
Marath, Will of the Wild
Friendly Kess Twin Combo
Tatyova - Sir Bounce A Lot
Gonti's Luxury Pie
Prime (Eldrazi) Speaker Zegana (Retired)
is everyone in agreeance that Olivia looks UNDERPOWERED????? 'splain!?
3/3 flyer for 3, discard engine that pump-hastes dudes on eotb? I'm not seeing her bad side?
:symu::symr::symw::symb::symg: Dream Halls :symu::symr::symw::symb::symg:
:symu::symw: U/W/x Landstill (now Miracles) :symu::symw:
:symu::symu: Merfolk :symu::symu:
contact me!
Drana, Liberator of Malakir had the same problem. She's objectively a powerful card but the deck that wants her never materialized and she ended up a $5 mythic until she rebounded because of the Shadows of Innistrad speculation.
Not really. They do pretty different things.
So...I'm willing to be wrong, but I don't think much of her. A 3/3 flyer for 3 is OK, but her other ability requires you both have other creatures to cast AND cards you want to get rid of. Sure madness may be a thing, but even then, there are less conditional enablers.
Also, I think Drana, Liberator of Malakir is just better at doing what Olivia 2 would like to do much of the time.