Just in case anyone was worried the current spate of reserved list buyouts was going to stick to playable cards, someone bought out Polar Kraken. I'm assuming as a joke.
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Just in case anyone was worried the current spate of reserved list buyouts was going to stick to playable cards, someone bought out Polar Kraken. I'm assuming as a joke.
I know that I really should pull all reserve list cards out of my bulk box, but seriously, Polar Kraken? That's gotta be a joke, until someone comes up with a '95-'96 format.
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Just in case anyone was worried the current spate of reserved list buyouts was going to stick to playable cards, someone bought out Polar Kraken. I'm assuming as a joke.
I know that I really should pull all reserve list cards out of my bulk box, but seriously, Polar Kraken? That's gotta be a joke, until someone comes up with a '95-'96 format.
There really must be a joke going around somewhere, since Narwhal is suddenly a 10 dollar card according to MTGStocks. I swear this reserve list buyout thing is starting to get ridiculous.
Question: what would you guys evaluate a near mint Alpha Hypnotic Specter at?
I've had 1 in my collection for a while now and recently found someone interested. Magiccardmarket.eu has it at 140, 150 and then 1k (which seems like someone hoping to get lucky). The Beta versions however go from 75€ onwards. So should I put the trade value at 140ish or 75€? I don't want to undervalue my card obviously, however this is the first person that's been interested in the card in about 7-10 years.
140 seems high, but I know the market is a bit different in Europe.
Last one I see completed on ebay here in the US is $114 for a NM copy. Graded copies have gone higher, between $150 and $200ish for 8.5s.
I'd think 120€ would be close.
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Just in case anyone was worried the current spate of reserved list buyouts was going to stick to playable cards, someone bought out Polar Kraken. I'm assuming as a joke.
No, actually, someone is brewing with Polar Kraken and doing not-horrible with it.
Question: what would you guys evaluate a near mint Alpha Hypnotic Specter at?
I've had 1 in my collection for a while now and recently found someone interested. Magiccardmarket.eu has it at 140, 150 and then 1k (which seems like someone hoping to get lucky). The Beta versions however go from 75€ onwards. So should I put the trade value at 140ish or 75€? I don't want to undervalue my card obviously, however this is the first person that's been interested in the card in about 7-10 years.
140 seems high, but I know the market is a bit different in Europe.
Last one I see completed on ebay here in the US is $114 for a NM copy. Graded copies have gone higher, between $150 and $200ish for 8.5s.
I'd think 120€ would be close.
I'd concur with Danz. Undercut the available Alpha copies slightly. Don't go near the Beta price - that's selling yourself short.
Point of trivia - I also have an Alpha Hippie. Mine has exactly one previous owner, a friend who gave it (and the rest of the cards from that pack) to me before he died. I'm gonna take another moment to remember him - you guys go on ahead with the thread.
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Since apparently I rubbed some OCD members the wrong way, I'll be talking about the buy-out shenanigans here. Well, not much to say since a picture is worth a thousand words.
Questions:
1) Any thoughts on what is going on?
2) Is any card printed in 1993 or 1994 safe (sans Fallen Empire)?
3) And what happens after there is nothing left to jump from these sets? Will the rest of the Reserved List be targeted, like some assassin crossing names off their list of targets?
4) What will it take for WotC/Hasbro to start caring about their decisions & how they effect their OG players?
I'm assuming I'll be back in 2 or 3 days quoting "Bueler... Bueler... Bueler..." here...
I'd guess copycat buyouts. Someone sees the price spikes from the big ones, like Moat, and hears about the profits. A card like Polar Kraken has a much lower initial outlay, so they try the same thing there without thinking about how they're going to get rid of dozens or hundreds of copies of a card with no demand (I assume - it's not like you can buylist those for a profit and I don't know anyone who's looking for one). It just doesn't seem like the kind of thing someone actually following the MtG market would try. It feels like a college kid's get rich quick scheme.
I'll admit to not following 93/94, but is Lifeblood relevant enough in that format to drive demand? The only other people who want it are collectors, because Sanctimony is almost strictly better. Is anyone in any format interested in North Star? Outside of the handful of EDH playable cards, the only audience for these cards is collectors and I seriously doubt that that population is large enough to make up the cost of some of these buyouts. Is the plan to hold onto them long enough for the buylist price to climb, then offload them?
Once you start getting out of 93/94 territory, you have to deal with a much larger print run to buyout. You find more cards with actual demand, but there are more copies on the market and more copies sitting in binders. It's more money and effort to buy all of the available copies and the price is going to drop back down more quickly. Less immediate reward for more effort makes them less desirable targets, but they're still going to be targets at some point. There's also a reasonable chance that 93/94 cards not on the RL are good buyout candidates. Something like Arboria has some demand, isn't on the RL, and isn't likely to be reprinted anyways, which makes it a possible buyout target and probably a better one than some of the Tempest/Urza's stuff on the RL.
Last question, I doubt WotC cares about the people impacted by RL buyouts. There's no financial incentive for them to make it easier to purchase old cards, particularly because it's all secondary market. Given that the reason for the RL was to protect collector's financial stake in the cards, rising prices seems more like an expectation than a problem. If the spikes in legacy playables (technically still a supported format) weren't enough to shift their stance on the RL, there's nothing to imply that they're going to be moved by the fringe collectible stuff. There's also no reason to think that they would reprint some of these cards even if the RL was broken. At this point, the most compelling reason for them to break the RL is cards like Thunder Spirit that could fill a role in a limited environment.
Final point, as one of the OCD members rubbed the wrong way: this post was both in a better place for the discussion and contained talking points, not just an observation that people were buying cards. That's the kind of post that's worth replying to.
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Since apparently I rubbed some OCD members the wrong way, I'll be talking about the buy-out shenanigans here. Well, not much to say since a picture is worth a thousand words.
Questions:
1) Any thoughts on what is going on?
2) Is any card printed in 1993 or 1994 safe (sans Fallen Empire)?
3) And what happens after there is nothing left to jump from these sets? Will the rest of the Reserved List be targeted, like some assassin crossing names off their list of targets?
4) What will it take for WotC/Hasbro to start caring about their decisions & how they effect their OG players?
I'm assuming I'll be back in 2 or 3 days quoting "Bueler... Bueler... Bueler..." here...
Weebo put it pretty well. It looks like amateurs are trying to follow in the footsteps of professionals. I don't really have anything else to add, just support for all of the points that Weebo made (I'd also add that Chromatic Lantern pretty much obsoletes North Star now that the EDH rules have changed).
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It seems like just about everything on the RL is being targeted and bought out probably based on supply, especially cards from older sets like Antiquities and Legends as the "price" will be easier to artificially spike abusing the automated price calculation systems in place due to such low existing numbers online.
The weird part is that a lot of these cards are being bought mid-spike or after the initial buyout. Sword of the Ages is a good example of this. A card that was 10 dollars a month ago was bought out in the last few days, rocketing its perceived price to numbers that people aren't going to pay (for example mtgstocks has it at over $130, which is silly), but during the buyout people were paying up to $50 for the card.
Maybe that's the representation of the few collectors out there that would want this card that bought it out of panic? Either way, quite a few people just got 40-50 dollars for an unplayable card (or maybe its played in 93/94 but I don't know). Many of the other recent bad RL card buyouts follow the same trend.
It seems like just about everything on the RL is being targeted and bought out probably based on supply, especially cards from older sets like Antiquities and Legends as the "price" will be easier to artificially spike abusing the automated price calculation systems in place due to such low existing numbers online.
The weird part is that a lot of these cards are being bought mid-spike or after the initial buyout. Sword of the Ages is a good example of this. A card that was 10 dollars a month ago was bought out in the last few days, rocketing its perceived price to numbers that people aren't going to pay (for example mtgstocks has it at over $130, which is silly), but during the buyout people were paying up to $50 for the card.
Maybe that's the representation of the few collectors out there that would want this card that bought it out of panic? Either way, quite a few people just got 40-50 dollars for an unplayable card (or maybe its played in 93/94 but I don't know). Many of the other recent bad RL card buyouts follow the same trend.
That is a really weird part. I always figured that anyone who wanted to collect older cards either already had or had pretty deep pockets. I can't imagine someone, even an established player, saying "I'm going to start collecting the Legends set now!" without having a really really good job. So they've got to have a plan for unloading these cards eventually ... don't they?
This is the sort of market activity that makes me want to part with my Legends cards.
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Some of the mid-spike buying may be coming from longtime players who don't still/yet have the cards. If you've been meaning to pick something up and been putting it off, climbing prices seem like an incentive to get in before they get worse and you don't necessarily think about whether or not you're buying into a spike. That would pretty much only be the case for EDH playable cards (Old Man of the Sea, old players who like Sword of the Ages) or occasional collectors who want sets and have been holding off on the cheap stuff. If I was working on a Legends set, I would have been in no hurry to grab my copy of North Star before a week ago seeing as it was sitting at a stable price for years leading up to the buyout. It still has to be a tiny number of players between those categories and I'd assume fairly deep pockets already, so I still don't see how anyone is expecting to profit off of these buyouts.
I agree that it's making me consider letting go of some of the old stuff. There are plenty of cards I picked up for an order of magnitude less than the current prices and I'm not big on volatility.
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It seems like just about everything on the RL is being targeted and bought out probably based on supply, especially cards from older sets like Antiquities and Legends as the "price" will be easier to artificially spike abusing the automated price calculation systems in place due to such low existing numbers online.
The weird part is that a lot of these cards are being bought mid-spike or after the initial buyout. Sword of the Ages is a good example of this. A card that was 10 dollars a month ago was bought out in the last few days, rocketing its perceived price to numbers that people aren't going to pay (for example mtgstocks has it at over $130, which is silly), but during the buyout people were paying up to $50 for the card.
Maybe that's the representation of the few collectors out there that would want this card that bought it out of panic? Either way, quite a few people just got 40-50 dollars for an unplayable card (or maybe its played in 93/94 but I don't know). Many of the other recent bad RL card buyouts follow the same trend.
Yeah, Sword is pretty much unplayable outside Commander, and casual Commander at that. I can't see anyone wanting to pay $200+ for that thing, cool as it is with its pseudo-Strombringer references, although it can compete with Runesword on that field! I'm sure I'll be able to trade for it off some friends at a reasonable price, geez.
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Reserve list prices are going nuts right now. Even stretching to Ice Age and Mirage. The buy outs this month have been crazy. This is not good for the game in the long run.
Also looks like Alpha, Beta & Unlimited is being targeted for buy-outs (so ABU is now getting picked on).
I don't know that the data is there. There's always going to be volatility in the Alpha market, just because of how few cards exist, and what percentage of them actually go up for sale at any time. Commons moving a buck or two feels like normal activity to me (although it's possible that I could be wrong - I'm certainly not digging deep into the data to draw this conclusion).
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If you look @ cards moving 25% or more over the last 2 weeks, you will see a lot of cards that are barely worth playing that are going up. Even cards from Unlimited.
If you look @ cards moving 25% or more over the last 2 weeks, you will see a lot of cards that are barely worth playing that are going up. Even cards from Unlimited.
That's more likely a reaction than a buyout. "Oh man, I'd better pick this up for my set now or I"ll never get it at a decent price!"
I'm about a dozen cards away from my UL set, and I'm certainly in that mindset.
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That's more likely a reaction than a buyout. "Oh man, I'd better pick this up for my set now or I"ll never get it at a decent price!"
I'm about a dozen cards away from my UL set, and I'm certainly in that mindset.
I'm in a similar boat. I'm not interested in set collection, but I grabbed a bunch of Tempest/Urza's reserved stuff that I'd been holding off on after the Corpse Dance buyout. There's likely still time before anyone manages a large scale buyout of those and they'll recover faster, but smaller speculative buys and increased demand from people thinking similar to me still has the potential to drive prices up some. I'm expecting people to be a little more guarded about RL pricing after the current string of buyouts, so it's unlikely most of the RL is going to drop much below the current cost (spikes from current buyouts aside).
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If you look @ cards moving 25% or more over the last 2 weeks, you will see a lot of cards that are barely worth playing that are going up. Even cards from Unlimited.
That's more likely a reaction than a buyout. "Oh man, I'd better pick this up for my set now or I"ll never get it at a decent price!"
I'm about a dozen cards away from my UL set, and I'm certainly in that mindset.
Reaction/buy-out... the end result is the same: price jumps. Look what happened today: Beta Camouflage went from a $4 card to a $58 card... yipes!!!
Look what happened today: Beta Camouflage went from a $4 card to a $58 card... yipes!!!
No, it didn't. You really need to use more than a single source for your pricing information, especially when that source doesn't have reliable pricing data. TCGplayer market price, which reflects what people are actually paying for the card, is $6.70. There's a LP listing for $12, and numerous listings in worse condition in the $4 range. eBay sold listings from today alone have one NM at $20.05, LP at $12.68, VF at 3.29, and (most telling) an auction for LP that ended at $4.49. There are BIN for graded BGS 7.5 at $20 and BGS quad 9 at $50. The only place where Beta Camouflage could possibly be construed as being a $58 card is two listings on TCGplayer and the sites that use TCGplayer mid pricing data, like MTGStocks.
MTGStocks is a great site for tracking trends and being aware of price movement but it's a terrible site for reliable pricing data, especially during and after spikes regardless of what's causing the spike. It takes 30 seconds of research to determine that. Please try and think a little more critically about the information you're getting before you feed into the buyout hype.
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Look what happened today: Beta Camouflage went from a $4 card to a $58 card... yipes!!!
No, it didn't. You really need to use more than a single source for your pricing information, especially when that source doesn't have reliable pricing data. TCGplayer market price, which reflects what people are actually paying for the card, is $6.70. There's a LP listing for $12, and numerous listings in worse condition in the $4 range. eBay sold listings from today alone have one NM at $20.05, LP at $12.68, VF at 3.29, and (most telling) an auction for LP that ended at $4.49. There are BIN for graded BGS 7.5 at $20 and BGS quad 9 at $50. The only place where Beta Camouflage could possibly be construed as being a $58 card is two listings on TCGplayer and the sites that use TCGplayer mid pricing data, like MTGStocks.
MTGStocks is a great site for tracking trends and being aware of price movement but it's a terrible site for reliable pricing data, especially during and after spikes regardless of what's causing the spike. It takes 30 seconds of research to determine that. Please try and think a little more critically about the information you're getting before you feed into the buyout hype.
Holy crap! It was an example- can you spell it with me E-X-A-M-P-L-E... is everything so concrete with you. Doesn't matter if it goes from $4 to $15, or $20, or $50, the fact that it has stayed the same price for what was most likely a decade, then get's sucked into the hype/buy-out vortex means it's moving like it didn't before.
I've been watching prices move, EVERY night, for the past 5 or so years. Trying using YOUR critical thinking skills to see patterns over time. [snip]Looks like someone didn't do well on their ASVAB testing as a kid, lol.[/snip] ABU, Arabian Nights, Antiquities, Legends & The Dark have moved astronomical amounts that were unseen prior to 2 years ago. Doesn't matter if it is some rich gamer manipulating the prices, an amateur trying to copy-cat the price manipulations, or a panic reaction buy-out, or available copies drying up causing dealers to panic, the price changes are going to forever change the price due to price memory. Look at the past to understand the present.
Look at Lifeblood as an example. Was a $3 card for a very long time ( https://www.mtgstocks.com/prints/11642 ). The buy-out sky-rocketed it to over $100. Now it is starting to settle... so far around $30. I do not believe it was ever dip below $10... EVER. That gives it, a minimum of 300% jump. And I bet w/in the next year, it won't go below $20 (may even get another buy-out when the dust finally settles).
You can give me all the different prices examples you want for Camouflage, it is still above the $4 mark that it was at since 2012 (when mtgstocks began). Your "LP" listing for $12 is still a 400% increase. Not normal.
Please try and think a little more critically about the information you are fully looking at in regards to the big picture. Try to see the forest, not just the trees.
I know that I really should pull all reserve list cards out of my bulk box, but seriously, Polar Kraken? That's gotta be a joke, until someone comes up with a '95-'96 format.
There really must be a joke going around somewhere, since Narwhal is suddenly a 10 dollar card according to MTGStocks. I swear this reserve list buyout thing is starting to get ridiculous.
140 seems high, but I know the market is a bit different in Europe.
Last one I see completed on ebay here in the US is $114 for a NM copy. Graded copies have gone higher, between $150 and $200ish for 8.5s.
I'd think 120€ would be close.
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No, actually, someone is brewing with Polar Kraken and doing not-horrible with it.
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?5663-Deck-The-Polar-Express/page4
Well, to be fair, it's an ooooold thread with an ooooold combo, but it gets bumped around the holidays each year.
Hey man, 3 mana for a 3/6 with a usually worthless drawback is pretty baller.
I'd concur with Danz. Undercut the available Alpha copies slightly. Don't go near the Beta price - that's selling yourself short.
Point of trivia - I also have an Alpha Hippie. Mine has exactly one previous owner, a friend who gave it (and the rest of the cards from that pack) to me before he died. I'm gonna take another moment to remember him - you guys go on ahead with the thread.
Questions:
1) Any thoughts on what is going on?
2) Is any card printed in 1993 or 1994 safe (sans Fallen Empire)?
3) And what happens after there is nothing left to jump from these sets? Will the rest of the Reserved List be targeted, like some assassin crossing names off their list of targets?
4) What will it take for WotC/Hasbro to start caring about their decisions & how they effect their OG players?
I'm assuming I'll be back in 2 or 3 days quoting "Bueler... Bueler... Bueler..." here...
I'll admit to not following 93/94, but is Lifeblood relevant enough in that format to drive demand? The only other people who want it are collectors, because Sanctimony is almost strictly better. Is anyone in any format interested in North Star? Outside of the handful of EDH playable cards, the only audience for these cards is collectors and I seriously doubt that that population is large enough to make up the cost of some of these buyouts. Is the plan to hold onto them long enough for the buylist price to climb, then offload them?
Once you start getting out of 93/94 territory, you have to deal with a much larger print run to buyout. You find more cards with actual demand, but there are more copies on the market and more copies sitting in binders. It's more money and effort to buy all of the available copies and the price is going to drop back down more quickly. Less immediate reward for more effort makes them less desirable targets, but they're still going to be targets at some point. There's also a reasonable chance that 93/94 cards not on the RL are good buyout candidates. Something like Arboria has some demand, isn't on the RL, and isn't likely to be reprinted anyways, which makes it a possible buyout target and probably a better one than some of the Tempest/Urza's stuff on the RL.
Last question, I doubt WotC cares about the people impacted by RL buyouts. There's no financial incentive for them to make it easier to purchase old cards, particularly because it's all secondary market. Given that the reason for the RL was to protect collector's financial stake in the cards, rising prices seems more like an expectation than a problem. If the spikes in legacy playables (technically still a supported format) weren't enough to shift their stance on the RL, there's nothing to imply that they're going to be moved by the fringe collectible stuff. There's also no reason to think that they would reprint some of these cards even if the RL was broken. At this point, the most compelling reason for them to break the RL is cards like Thunder Spirit that could fill a role in a limited environment.
Final point, as one of the OCD members rubbed the wrong way: this post was both in a better place for the discussion and contained talking points, not just an observation that people were buying cards. That's the kind of post that's worth replying to.
Weebo put it pretty well. It looks like amateurs are trying to follow in the footsteps of professionals. I don't really have anything else to add, just support for all of the points that Weebo made (I'd also add that Chromatic Lantern pretty much obsoletes North Star now that the EDH rules have changed).
The weird part is that a lot of these cards are being bought mid-spike or after the initial buyout. Sword of the Ages is a good example of this. A card that was 10 dollars a month ago was bought out in the last few days, rocketing its perceived price to numbers that people aren't going to pay (for example mtgstocks has it at over $130, which is silly), but during the buyout people were paying up to $50 for the card.
Maybe that's the representation of the few collectors out there that would want this card that bought it out of panic? Either way, quite a few people just got 40-50 dollars for an unplayable card (or maybe its played in 93/94 but I don't know). Many of the other recent bad RL card buyouts follow the same trend.
That is a really weird part. I always figured that anyone who wanted to collect older cards either already had or had pretty deep pockets. I can't imagine someone, even an established player, saying "I'm going to start collecting the Legends set now!" without having a really really good job. So they've got to have a plan for unloading these cards eventually ... don't they?
This is the sort of market activity that makes me want to part with my Legends cards.
I agree that it's making me consider letting go of some of the old stuff. There are plenty of cards I picked up for an order of magnitude less than the current prices and I'm not big on volatility.
https://www.mtgstocks.com/news/172
Yeah, Sword is pretty much unplayable outside Commander, and casual Commander at that. I can't see anyone wanting to pay $200+ for that thing, cool as it is with its pseudo-Strombringer references, although it can compete with Runesword on that field! I'm sure I'll be able to trade for it off some friends at a reasonable price, geez.
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Thread merged -KnickM
I don't know that the data is there. There's always going to be volatility in the Alpha market, just because of how few cards exist, and what percentage of them actually go up for sale at any time. Commons moving a buck or two feels like normal activity to me (although it's possible that I could be wrong - I'm certainly not digging deep into the data to draw this conclusion).
That's more likely a reaction than a buyout. "Oh man, I'd better pick this up for my set now or I"ll never get it at a decent price!"
I'm about a dozen cards away from my UL set, and I'm certainly in that mindset.
Reaction/buy-out... the end result is the same: price jumps. Look what happened today: Beta Camouflage went from a $4 card to a $58 card... yipes!!!
MTGStocks is a great site for tracking trends and being aware of price movement but it's a terrible site for reliable pricing data, especially during and after spikes regardless of what's causing the spike. It takes 30 seconds of research to determine that. Please try and think a little more critically about the information you're getting before you feed into the buyout hype.
Holy crap! It was an example- can you spell it with me E-X-A-M-P-L-E... is everything so concrete with you. Doesn't matter if it goes from $4 to $15, or $20, or $50, the fact that it has stayed the same price for what was most likely a decade, then get's sucked into the hype/buy-out vortex means it's moving like it didn't before.
I've been watching prices move, EVERY night, for the past 5 or so years. Trying using YOUR critical thinking skills to see patterns over time. [snip]Looks like someone didn't do well on their ASVAB testing as a kid, lol.[/snip] ABU, Arabian Nights, Antiquities, Legends & The Dark have moved astronomical amounts that were unseen prior to 2 years ago. Doesn't matter if it is some rich gamer manipulating the prices, an amateur trying to copy-cat the price manipulations, or a panic reaction buy-out, or available copies drying up causing dealers to panic, the price changes are going to forever change the price due to price memory. Look at the past to understand the present.
Look at Lifeblood as an example. Was a $3 card for a very long time ( https://www.mtgstocks.com/prints/11642 ). The buy-out sky-rocketed it to over $100. Now it is starting to settle... so far around $30. I do not believe it was ever dip below $10... EVER. That gives it, a minimum of 300% jump. And I bet w/in the next year, it won't go below $20 (may even get another buy-out when the dust finally settles).
You can give me all the different prices examples you want for Camouflage, it is still above the $4 mark that it was at since 2012 (when mtgstocks began). Your "LP" listing for $12 is still a 400% increase. Not normal.
Please try and think a little more critically about the information you are fully looking at in regards to the big picture. Try to see the forest, not just the trees.
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