I recently bought a full set of Scalding Tarns for $250. However, from what I've read, it looks like there might be a reprint coming the next year and a possibly huge price drop, so I'm wondering if I should (Puca) trade them for other modern staples whose price would be more stable. The more pricey cards that I'm interested in are:
I'm not in a hurry, so if this is not the best time to buy modern cards I could wait. Maybe I can put that money on Khans fetches or even the slow BFZ duals if they are bound to increase in price later?
I recently bought a full set of Scalding Tarns for $250. However, from what I've read, it looks like there might be a reprint coming the next year and a possibly huge price drop, so I'm wondering if I should (Puca) trade them for other modern staples whose price would be more stable. The more pricey cards that I'm interested in are:
I'm not in a hurry, so if this is not the best time to buy modern cards I could wait. Maybe I can put that money on Khans fetches or even the slow BFZ duals if they are bound to increase in price later?
Any suggestions are appreciated. Thanks!
If you're worried about reprints, all of those are eligible for reprinting as well. Spellskite is something you'll want now - they just reprinted in MM15 and it's likely at it's low point for the next year or two, before it's reprinted again. Snappy is eligible for reprinting, either in the Innistrad revisit or MM3. So is Blood Moon and Engineered Explosives (both also reprinted in MM1).
Polluted Delta is really the safest on that list, just because it's abundant from being in print and unlikely to see a reprint sooner than the others.
If you're worried about reprints, all of those are eligible for reprinting as well. Spellskite is something you'll want now - they just reprinted in MM15 and it's likely at it's low point for the next year or two, before it's reprinted again. Snappy is eligible for reprinting, either in the Innistrad revisit or MM3. So is Blood Moon and Engineered Explosives (both also reprinted in MM1).
Polluted Delta is really the safest on that list, just because it's abundant from being in print and unlikely to see a reprint sooner than the others.
Thanks for the reply, Quacker. It's not necessarily a reprint what worries me, but one leading to huge drop in price. For example, when Polluted Delta was reprinted, the price of the Onslaught version dropped from $90 to $50 in a matter of days, and to the current price of $38. That's more than a 50% loss. That's why I'm particularly concerned about the Tarns. I do agree that Polluted Delta seems to be the safest from that list, I'm just wondering if a large drop in the price of the other cards is less likely.
BTW, my goal is not buying at the cheapest possible price. I'm trying to buy into Modern for playing, but I'm not too keen on spending >$200 in cards that I'll be able to buy for $100 a year from now.
If you got them to play modern, then the question is what deck(s) you want to play and whether they require Tarns.
The reality is that fetches are both critical to most modern decks and pretty much guaranteed to be reprinted.
That leaves you with a few choices:
1) Play a deck that doesn't require Zendikar fetches. KTK/ONS fetches are plentiful and near the low point they are likely to touch for years to come. You could trade your playset of Tarns into multiple playsets of ally fetches. If you do choose this option, I wouldn't do it through Puca though. KTK fetches are highly in demand and moving slowly. You'd be turning a highly-coveted commodity (Tarns) into puca points with no guarantee anyone would want to convert those back into more fetches for you. Better to trade on these forums, MOTL or IRL. I'm sure plenty of people would be happy to trade up their KTK fetches into tarns.
2) Dump them at a high price now and wait for a reprint. This is the safest financial option, as a Tarn reprint is certainly a matter of when and not if. You could literally be waiting years though. How many weeks, months, years are you willing to go without playing your modern deck?
3) Accept that a reprint is inevitable (and subsequent value crash) and keep them for the reason you bought them: to play. Think of the value you'll get from playing hundreds of fun modern games in the meantime, and realize that fetches will always be valuable reprint or not. Deltas went down to around $10 and are pushing $30 again. When KTK goes out of print and people still want to play modern and legacy, they'll go higher. Given enough time, they'll probably be reprinted again and drop again, and so on. Your Tarns will drop to $20 someday, and then slowly creep up again. Meanwhile other items in your collection will surely rise in value, and meanwhile you'll get to enjoy playing with them.
Oops, I forgot to mention that I'm building Grixis Delver and Control (and possibly Twin, if there's enough overlap).
@huktonfonix I hear ya on sacrificing playing time just for the sake of financial gain. One idea I've been mulling over is that maybe it makes sense to trade/sell the Tarns for the rest of the cards I'm missing and then try to borrow the fetches from someone else when going to play at my LGS (or replacing some of them for Flooded Strands). Not sure if that's a good idea, but maybe it is if some of the other Grixis staples are less risky purchases?
BTW, I think I can reformulate my question in more concrete terms (even though the answers given so far have been quite informative already).
Basically, I need around $500 worth of cards to finish building Grixis Delver, but I con only spend $250 now and no more for a few months. So I'm wondering what makes the most sense financially:
Buying 4x Scalding Tarn?
Buying 4x Snapcaster Mage?
Buying every other expensive card I'm missing? (e.g., 2x Blood Moon, 4x Polluted Delta, Spellskite, Engineered Explosives)
Hold on to my money?
Some other option?
Picking up sought after cards on Puca is now actually hard. I've had Windswept Heath on my list of wants for the last two months. I know SCM was a highly sought after card that lots of people had/have on their wants list as well. Just a little bit of of info to think about.
As for reprints, reprints are always on the horizon. Buying into MTG is a big gamble these days, but the chances of the KtK fetches being reprinted is low, as well as Blood Moon. Honestly, I'd personally just keep the Tarns and put up with the loss. Then again, I'm sick and tired of trading, buying, and selling.
Keep them. Yes you'll take a hit but if you're a good player you'll find a way to turn them into a tier 1 deck which can win you events in the next 2 years.
People can say a reprint will certainly be within X timeframe but the truth is as simple as the following.
Onslaught 2002
Karns of Tarkir 2014
That's 12 years.
Zendikar 2009
Reprint fetchlands? 2020 or later if WoTC would like.
I think due to demand we are more looking at the 2017-2018 timescale. Consider me happy to be wrong if they drop in 2016 (very low chance).
The truth of the matter is that they just reprinted fetches in expedition form. No matter how expensive and rare these cards might be they do impact the market saturation of enemy fetches. One guy in my local area already has a playset of expedition Scalding Tarn. Assume he wants to get rid of the old Zen ones? That increases supply to the secondary market putting downward pressure on prices.
I happen to play both Grixis Delver/Control but refuse to buy Tarns. I'm currently using Mires/Deltas/Strands and getting by just fine. I also don't have any flip Jace's either so my build is the older iteration. I also stick to local game scenes and have zero intentions of attending bigger events. What I'm trying to say is the deck can be built and operate just fine with substitute cards so you don't need to drop $250 on a card that happens to be in the list. I know some people like to match a deck card for card but sometimes you don't need to. Just my 2c.
Commander GUR Maelstrom Wanderer BWU Sydri, Galvanic Genius BGB Meren of Clan Nel Toth WGW Nazahn, Revered Bladesmith RRR Feldon of the Third Path WWW Heliod, God of the Sun
If you don't have Tarns you will pay the price for untapped red/blue mana in many situations which is going to lead to losing a heap more matches against burn decks.
If your meta doesn't have lots of burn you're very lucky because it's a super popular deck.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
4x Snapcaster Mage
2x Blood Moon
4x Polluted Delta
1x Spellskite
1x Engineered Explosives
I'm not in a hurry, so if this is not the best time to buy modern cards I could wait. Maybe I can put that money on Khans fetches or even the slow BFZ duals if they are bound to increase in price later?
Any suggestions are appreciated. Thanks!
If you're worried about reprints, all of those are eligible for reprinting as well. Spellskite is something you'll want now - they just reprinted in MM15 and it's likely at it's low point for the next year or two, before it's reprinted again. Snappy is eligible for reprinting, either in the Innistrad revisit or MM3. So is Blood Moon and Engineered Explosives (both also reprinted in MM1).
Polluted Delta is really the safest on that list, just because it's abundant from being in print and unlikely to see a reprint sooner than the others.
Thanks for the reply, Quacker. It's not necessarily a reprint what worries me, but one leading to huge drop in price. For example, when Polluted Delta was reprinted, the price of the Onslaught version dropped from $90 to $50 in a matter of days, and to the current price of $38. That's more than a 50% loss. That's why I'm particularly concerned about the Tarns. I do agree that Polluted Delta seems to be the safest from that list, I'm just wondering if a large drop in the price of the other cards is less likely.
BTW, my goal is not buying at the cheapest possible price. I'm trying to buy into Modern for playing, but I'm not too keen on spending >$200 in cards that I'll be able to buy for $100 a year from now.
The reality is that fetches are both critical to most modern decks and pretty much guaranteed to be reprinted.
That leaves you with a few choices:
1) Play a deck that doesn't require Zendikar fetches. KTK/ONS fetches are plentiful and near the low point they are likely to touch for years to come. You could trade your playset of Tarns into multiple playsets of ally fetches. If you do choose this option, I wouldn't do it through Puca though. KTK fetches are highly in demand and moving slowly. You'd be turning a highly-coveted commodity (Tarns) into puca points with no guarantee anyone would want to convert those back into more fetches for you. Better to trade on these forums, MOTL or IRL. I'm sure plenty of people would be happy to trade up their KTK fetches into tarns.
2) Dump them at a high price now and wait for a reprint. This is the safest financial option, as a Tarn reprint is certainly a matter of when and not if. You could literally be waiting years though. How many weeks, months, years are you willing to go without playing your modern deck?
3) Accept that a reprint is inevitable (and subsequent value crash) and keep them for the reason you bought them: to play. Think of the value you'll get from playing hundreds of fun modern games in the meantime, and realize that fetches will always be valuable reprint or not. Deltas went down to around $10 and are pushing $30 again. When KTK goes out of print and people still want to play modern and legacy, they'll go higher. Given enough time, they'll probably be reprinted again and drop again, and so on. Your Tarns will drop to $20 someday, and then slowly creep up again. Meanwhile other items in your collection will surely rise in value, and meanwhile you'll get to enjoy playing with them.
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
My Trade Thread!
@huktonfonix I hear ya on sacrificing playing time just for the sake of financial gain. One idea I've been mulling over is that maybe it makes sense to trade/sell the Tarns for the rest of the cards I'm missing and then try to borrow the fetches from someone else when going to play at my LGS (or replacing some of them for Flooded Strands). Not sure if that's a good idea, but maybe it is if some of the other Grixis staples are less risky purchases?
Basically, I need around $500 worth of cards to finish building Grixis Delver, but I con only spend $250 now and no more for a few months. So I'm wondering what makes the most sense financially:
Buying 4x Scalding Tarn?
Buying 4x Snapcaster Mage?
Buying every other expensive card I'm missing? (e.g., 2x Blood Moon, 4x Polluted Delta, Spellskite, Engineered Explosives)
Hold on to my money?
Some other option?
As for reprints, reprints are always on the horizon. Buying into MTG is a big gamble these days, but the chances of the KtK fetches being reprinted is low, as well as Blood Moon. Honestly, I'd personally just keep the Tarns and put up with the loss. Then again, I'm sick and tired of trading, buying, and selling.
People can say a reprint will certainly be within X timeframe but the truth is as simple as the following.
Onslaught 2002
Karns of Tarkir 2014
That's 12 years.
Zendikar 2009
Reprint fetchlands? 2020 or later if WoTC would like.
I think due to demand we are more looking at the 2017-2018 timescale. Consider me happy to be wrong if they drop in 2016 (very low chance).
The truth of the matter is that they just reprinted fetches in expedition form. No matter how expensive and rare these cards might be they do impact the market saturation of enemy fetches. One guy in my local area already has a playset of expedition Scalding Tarn. Assume he wants to get rid of the old Zen ones? That increases supply to the secondary market putting downward pressure on prices.
GURB Grixis/Jund Shadow
RBG Dredge
xUx U Ballista Tron
Commander
GUR Maelstrom Wanderer
BWU Sydri, Galvanic Genius
BGB Meren of Clan Nel Toth
WGW Nazahn, Revered Bladesmith
RRR Feldon of the Third Path
WWW Heliod, God of the Sun
If your meta doesn't have lots of burn you're very lucky because it's a super popular deck.