So I'm not a savvy fortune teller when it comes to holding onto things with the intent to make a profit selling it later.
I picked up some Battle for Zendikar Fat Packs from Walmart, and I'm wondering if I should hang onto them or sell them at MSRP to friends (or return them to Walmart and get my money back).
Right now, on eBay, it seems that they're selling for MSRP (or I guess people are just waiting until the last hour and then the price drives up).
So to those of you that have some experience in this...
Should I get rid of them now and just get my money back, or is it almost a guarantee that I can sell them for $100 maybe a year from now when Origins rotates and BFZ is the oldest set still legal?
Welcome to the club. A number of us have been doing this for years, each with their own niche.
I have my own opinions about the fat packs personally: my answer is not worth it.
But I believe I'm in the minority position on market street. There are others who have invested in fat packs in the past who I suppose are happy with their decisions.
At any rate since you're new at this I can give you some basic principles of the magic market.
1. Generally speaking sealed product doesn't go down. The exceptions are some of the core sets, and exceptionally poor quality expansions.
2. Sealed product doesn't always go up however, and if you're going to sell on ebay you're looking at at least 15% in fees. (10% ebay, 3.5% paypal, + listing fees)
3. Age is loosely correlated with price gains, but generally speaking it's not the right metric to look at. Age influences supply. It's a shortage of supply which influences prices.
4. There are always multiple forces at work in MTG markets. You should be aware of them and weigh them based on your own analysis.
Pertaining to 4, we have the following:
A year from now, it's likely that fat pack supply with decrease. That would make it more likely to go up.
However, BFZ being the oldest set still legal is actually a downward force. As cards from a set near rotation the pricing becomes more unsteady and likely to drop.
The dip from rotation is much more modest however in the case where the cards clearly have a home in modern. That makes you have a slight to strong downward pressure, not on the fat pack per se, but on BFZ cards themselves.
At any rate, I've chosen not to play the fat pack game. They're less liquid than booster boxes which creates major problems when trying to divest say...50 of them.
But if you went to take the plunge, I doubt you would lose money. You have a decent chance of making a good return and a large chance of breaking even or small losses from transaction costs.
General agreement w/ TomCat - some additional comments on top...
This set does have full art lands which over the long run (3, 5, 7 years) might be worth something. They have a few more planes to visit before they return to zendikar a 3rd time, and so far only zendikar had the full art lands. They are all over the place now, but 5 years from now, may be worth something and sealed product with that stuff usually does well
On the flip side, so will at least the next set - and they will be the same lands (even the same scimitar, which is unfortunate). That is why across the board fat packs dropped about $8-10 in the last week for eBay selling prices.
The initial runs also have expeditions. Those chase-type promos long term typically do well, and unopened product from a set with them is sometimes sought after
But my advice - if your friends can't find them anywhere else, be a pal, sell them, and play a day of sealed. Whatever you have left you can keep for the future... you can still shop around town if you want to get the full-art lands, and if not the next set you can load up at MSRP - the final set is opened less than the original, and expedition/chase promos may be there too. You'll have another chance to invest for the 3-7 year period if you want.
So I'm not a savvy fortune teller when it comes to holding onto things with the intent to make a profit selling it later.
I picked up some Battle for Zendikar Fat Packs from Walmart, and I'm wondering if I should hang onto them or sell them at MSRP to friends (or return them to Walmart and get my money back).
Right now, on eBay, it seems that they're selling for MSRP (or I guess people are just waiting until the last hour and then the price drives up).
So to those of you that have some experience in this...
Should I get rid of them now and just get my money back, or is it almost a guarantee that I can sell them for $100 maybe a year from now when Origins rotates and BFZ is the oldest set still legal?
I was thinking about doing something similar with the fat pack that I got at my LGS, but it turns out that even when they were going for $65 pretty regularly and assuming that you bought for $40, you're not going to see very much of that $25 difference.
So the bottom line is, it really depends on how long you want to hold these and how confident that you are that Hasbro will continue to grow the game. If you're fine dedicating some closet space to them for a few years, then you should be able to sell them for a profit in maybe 5 years if the game continues to grow and new players show up who will want the land pack. Remember, the original Zendikar was seven years ago, and had fantastic cards in the set itself. BFZ is basically the Expedition Lotto, with the main draw being the pack of full-art lands.
I tend to concur with Digitek here - be awesome and sell them to your friends at cost if they're having a hard time finding them.
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Thanks for the link KnickM, and thanks for the info everyone.
I had already come across a batch of fat packs a week ago, and sold those for MSRP to the guys in the group I play in.. and so this was purely a "for profit" purchase with "sell to friends" as a backup.
..but..
I don't feel like waiting more than a year, and I don't have the patience to try and sell locally, so I'm not going to sit on them. Maybe if I was in the business and this wasn't my first rodeo, lol.
Thanks again guys
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I picked up some Battle for Zendikar Fat Packs from Walmart, and I'm wondering if I should hang onto them or sell them at MSRP to friends (or return them to Walmart and get my money back).
Right now, on eBay, it seems that they're selling for MSRP (or I guess people are just waiting until the last hour and then the price drives up).
So to those of you that have some experience in this...
Should I get rid of them now and just get my money back, or is it almost a guarantee that I can sell them for $100 maybe a year from now when Origins rotates and BFZ is the oldest set still legal?
I have my own opinions about the fat packs personally: my answer is not worth it.
But I believe I'm in the minority position on market street. There are others who have invested in fat packs in the past who I suppose are happy with their decisions.
At any rate since you're new at this I can give you some basic principles of the magic market.
1. Generally speaking sealed product doesn't go down. The exceptions are some of the core sets, and exceptionally poor quality expansions.
2. Sealed product doesn't always go up however, and if you're going to sell on ebay you're looking at at least 15% in fees. (10% ebay, 3.5% paypal, + listing fees)
3. Age is loosely correlated with price gains, but generally speaking it's not the right metric to look at. Age influences supply. It's a shortage of supply which influences prices.
4. There are always multiple forces at work in MTG markets. You should be aware of them and weigh them based on your own analysis.
Pertaining to 4, we have the following:
A year from now, it's likely that fat pack supply with decrease. That would make it more likely to go up.
However, BFZ being the oldest set still legal is actually a downward force. As cards from a set near rotation the pricing becomes more unsteady and likely to drop.
The dip from rotation is much more modest however in the case where the cards clearly have a home in modern. That makes you have a slight to strong downward pressure, not on the fat pack per se, but on BFZ cards themselves.
At any rate, I've chosen not to play the fat pack game. They're less liquid than booster boxes which creates major problems when trying to divest say...50 of them.
But if you went to take the plunge, I doubt you would lose money. You have a decent chance of making a good return and a large chance of breaking even or small losses from transaction costs.
But my advice - if your friends can't find them anywhere else, be a pal, sell them, and play a day of sealed. Whatever you have left you can keep for the future... you can still shop around town if you want to get the full-art lands, and if not the next set you can load up at MSRP - the final set is opened less than the original, and expedition/chase promos may be there too. You'll have another chance to invest for the 3-7 year period if you want.
Minowara, Lord_Anarchy, and JeffCrandall explain the costs and margins associated with selling fat packs on eBay:
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/market-street/market-street-cafe/630454-investing-in-bfz-fat-packs?page=2
I was thinking about doing something similar with the fat pack that I got at my LGS, but it turns out that even when they were going for $65 pretty regularly and assuming that you bought for $40, you're not going to see very much of that $25 difference.
So the bottom line is, it really depends on how long you want to hold these and how confident that you are that Hasbro will continue to grow the game. If you're fine dedicating some closet space to them for a few years, then you should be able to sell them for a profit in maybe 5 years if the game continues to grow and new players show up who will want the land pack. Remember, the original Zendikar was seven years ago, and had fantastic cards in the set itself. BFZ is basically the Expedition Lotto, with the main draw being the pack of full-art lands.
I tend to concur with Digitek here - be awesome and sell them to your friends at cost if they're having a hard time finding them.
I had already come across a batch of fat packs a week ago, and sold those for MSRP to the guys in the group I play in.. and so this was purely a "for profit" purchase with "sell to friends" as a backup.
..but..
I don't feel like waiting more than a year, and I don't have the patience to try and sell locally, so I'm not going to sit on them. Maybe if I was in the business and this wasn't my first rodeo, lol.
Thanks again guys