I was in Utrecht yesterday. At 8pm they announced they would not longer be doing MM15 on demand side-event drafts as they ran through all the product allocation for the day (so packs wre opened like crazy). I was trying to get a playset of goyfs myself but I could only buy 1 from someone who opened it the day before. Everyone else held on to theirs because they expected a price increase in the coming months.
Then I checked the vendors: one was selling at 105 euros but was sold out. Cartapapa sold at 115 but was sold out. None of the others seemed to have MM15 Goys (at least not on display, I didn't ask because their prices for other stuff were crazy).
I was in Utrecht yesterday. At 8pm they announced they would not longer be doing MM15 on demand side-event drafts as they ran through all the product allocation for the day (so packs wre opened like crazy). I was trying to get a playset of goyfs myself but I could only buy 1 from someone who opened it the day before. Everyone else held on to theirs because they expected a price increase in the coming months.
Then I checked the vendors: one was selling at 105 euros but was sold out. Cartapapa sold at 115 but was sold out. None of the others seemed to have MM15 Goys (at least not on display, I didn't ask because their prices for other stuff were crazy).
It's not a second wave. They have an option of buying directly from WotC for extra supply. I saw the PO for my LGS.
I'm still trying to confirm this. Anyone have proof?
Ok, so in the video he confirms that WotC is refilling stores, just gradually. No known amount is given to the public and WotC reps, not distributors, are acting like supply is running short already. Could be a ruse, might not be.
Second wave is kind of a misnomer. I'm sure what happened is the product that was left over is being offered to stores. They aren't going to print any more.
For you math wizards, I have a request. Assuming the information Ive heard is correct, if there are eight thousand registered for GP LV, roughly how many Goyfs will be opened at this main event alone?
Let's have a look here.
Probability of opening Tarmogoyf: (1/8)*(1/15)=0.833%. Plus the foil slot, which as I understand it is 1/121 to be mythic, so (1/121)*(1/15)=0.055%.
I've used data from the six largest among the 10 most recent individual GPs to calculate that 11.6% of players make Day 2, or 926 players. So, including the top 8s (there will be two, remember!), that gives us (8000*6)+(926*6)+(16*3)=53604 packs.
This will result in 447 regular Tarmogoyfs and 30 foil Tarmogoyfs being opened (barring, of course, flaws in my calculations).
Math gurus, I have attendance numbers! GP: Utrecht - 3,613, GP: Chiba - 3,551, GP: Las Vegas - 7,500. Roughly how many Goyfs at these main events?
14,664 attendees. 1,701 Day two. Three top eights 48
(14664 x 6) + (1701 x 6) + (48 x 3) = 98,334 packs. Percent of Goyf openings is 816 regular Goyfs?
Do know that those numbers are how many played round one. They do not include the very large number of people who open and dropped. Also Vegas did not run out of mm2 and ran a ton of drafts. Let alone a 800 person 2HG and a 900 person sealed event.
For you math wizards, I have a request. Assuming the information Ive heard is correct, if there are eight thousand registered for GP LV, roughly how many Goyfs will be opened at this main event alone?
Let's have a look here.
Probability of opening Tarmogoyf: (1/8)*(1/15)=0.833%. Plus the foil slot, which as I understand it is 1/121 to be mythic, so (1/121)*(1/15)=0.055%.
I've used data from the six largest among the 10 most recent individual GPs to calculate that 11.6% of players make Day 2, or 926 players. So, including the top 8s (there will be two, remember!), that gives us (8000*6)+(926*6)+(16*3)=53604 packs.
This will result in 447 regular Tarmogoyfs and 30 foil Tarmogoyfs being opened (barring, of course, flaws in my calculations).
Math gurus, I have attendance numbers! GP: Utrecht - 3,613, GP: Chiba - 3,551, GP: Las Vegas - 7,500. Roughly how many Goyfs at these main events?
14,664 attendees. 1,701 Day two. Three top eights 48
(14664 x 6) + (1701 x 6) + (48 x 3) = 98,334 packs. Percent of Goyf openings is 816 regular Goyfs?
Do know that those numbers are how many played round one. They do not include the very large number of people who open and dropped. Also Vegas did not run out of mm2 and ran a ton of drafts. Let alone a 800 person 2HG and a 900 person sealed event.
Excellent. Thank you. Also, buy your Goyfs now. My so called buyout I mentioned kept prices above one forty shipped.
Tarmogoyf has been falling for several consecutive days on TCGPlayer now. Either the natural player demand has been saturated, or the speculators who were snap buying anything below their price point have run out of money to continue driving up the prices. Will it continue to fall?
At this moment, there now 17 NM Tarmogoyfs (MM15) at below $140 on TCG where there were none a few days ago, including one for as low as $125.
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Due to real-life obligations, I am taking a long break from Magic which may include missing the local Legacy GP. Apologies for not being able to keep my threads updated.
tarmo didn't have a great showing at gp charlotte. I think people were expecting this card to be more pervasive since a bunch just got released into playsers hands and it didn't really appear.
Snapcaster on the other hand is pretty heavy in T8. I think tarmo bounces back to the 150 range once Jund or tarmo twins or some other variant T8s. For those who cracked a goyf, some are starting to offload given the enormous value. I picked up 5 in the last week in the 125 to 135 range (I cashed out my old playset at 650 bucks and set aside this money to pick it back up. I basically turned 4 mm goyfs into 5 mm2 goyfs
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Then I checked the vendors: one was selling at 105 euros but was sold out. Cartapapa sold at 115 but was sold out. None of the others seemed to have MM15 Goys (at least not on display, I didn't ask because their prices for other stuff were crazy).
Bloody capitalists. >: |
Taken from another thread:
Cheers
here is all the information you will need on the 'second wave'
Same video in my post.
Oh I didn't even see it >.<
Sorry!
at 0:57 of the video, who's the fat dude on the top right? I used to watch his videos but can't remember him
I think hes called manasource or something? Can't stand him though.
Do know that those numbers are how many played round one. They do not include the very large number of people who open and dropped. Also Vegas did not run out of mm2 and ran a ton of drafts. Let alone a 800 person 2HG and a 900 person sealed event.
Excellent. Thank you. Also, buy your Goyfs now. My so called buyout I mentioned kept prices above one forty shipped.
At this moment, there now 17 NM Tarmogoyfs (MM15) at below $140 on TCG where there were none a few days ago, including one for as low as $125.
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Snapcaster on the other hand is pretty heavy in T8. I think tarmo bounces back to the 150 range once Jund or tarmo twins or some other variant T8s. For those who cracked a goyf, some are starting to offload given the enormous value. I picked up 5 in the last week in the 125 to 135 range (I cashed out my old playset at 650 bucks and set aside this money to pick it back up. I basically turned 4 mm goyfs into 5 mm2 goyfs