Not sure if anyone's brought this up yet or not, but I was curious to when the best time (and vendor) would be to nab a sealed box of Conspiracy to stash away for 2+ years ?
I've got a hunch that it'll either mature nicely in monetary value or plain' ol fun-to-play-ness - or both.
What's the cheapest that people have seen publicly available boxes ? I see BIN's for 90-100$ on Ebay.
I have already purchased Conspiracy boxes for this exact reason. I think it will have great value moving forward. I bought mine from CFB for $85 when they were on sale. It's not too hard to find them for $90 right now.
I am thinking about buying one, and after the first draft sleeving the whole thing. Then we can play draft instead of board games from time to time at game nights.
Best time was likely 4-6 months ago (75-80$) You maybe able to find a deal in the low 80s from someone wanting to dump their overstock, but I think they are moving higher at this point. Current auctions on EBay look more at high 80s. Massdrop has 83$ shipped for the next 6 days. https://www.massdrop.com/buy/conspiracy-booster-box which is pretty good.
I have a box stashed away as well but what I'm worried about is that most of the value is around 2-3 rares and some uncommons and we will barely see a moderate return on our investmen. There's a reason why a limited print run set was being sold for so cheap after drafting was done for it. The thing that Unglued and Unhinged had on top of limited print run was the unique, full-art lands which Conspiracy does not. I'm going to hold onto my box in case I'm wrong, but I do worry about just how wise of an investment it was for me.
Don't forget that there is value in the draft. This is a set made for drafting, so the unique draft nature of the set alone is value. Look at Planechase for example. Have you ever seen anyone at your LGS playing Planechase? I haven't. But the value is very high because of the planes.
Conspiracy is pretty cool box for speculating. Just note that most finance writers have noted this and there are several hundred other people who either have done this or are considering buying boxes. I'm personally sitting on 10 boxes, some that will get drafted after the local stores run out of product in a few years and rest sold when the price is right. I personally consider it to take minimum of two years to get to the point that you can actually make money, so for investing something like Fate Reforged fat packs would be much faster way to make money. (Land packs with lands that are not availlable in boosters (except as foils or in Ugin's Fate packs), set with some very valuable mythics and good rares, chance at fetch lands. I expect these to be 50$ next year.)
Now is also pretty good time to buy a box or boxes Conspiracy if the price is right. I usually try to minimize the time when my funds are tied with boxes, mainly because the development time for boxes can be pretty long. So if you can get boxes for the same value as other people who bought in six months ago, your discounted profits will be higher than for somebody who bought in as soon as possible. This can allow you to sell boxes slightly cheaper and still hit your profit margins. If you don't calculate discounted profits, then forget I wrote the above... I usually buy my cases when the product goes OOP, but distributors still have plentiful product and offer discounts.
Anyway always make certain you only invest money you can afford, otherwise it's very easy to loose money on boxes, as those take some time to sell, unless you are offering discounts, which eat your profits and sometimes even more.
I have a box stashed away as well but what I'm worried about is that most of the value is around 2-3 rares and some uncommons and we will barely see a moderate return on our investmen. There's a reason why a limited print run set was being sold for so cheap after drafting was done for it. The thing that Unglued and Unhinged had on top of limited print run was the unique, full-art lands which Conspiracy does not. I'm going to hold onto my box in case I'm wrong, but I do worry about just how wise of an investment it was for me.
Well, things worth noting:
Brainstorm and STP are both "value" commons/uncommons with a TCG player low of $1-2, shipped. Most sets don't even have that.
On top of that, the following are worth $5-10: Council's Judgment, Exporation, Marchesa, Mirrari's Wake, Pernicious Deed, Refecting Pool, and Stifle. There are quite a few $2-5 cards currently also.
Finally, the two big ones are Scourge of thrones ($13 or so) and Dack Fayden ($40), which is pretty good.
Add on top of that that some of the foils of the draft-only cards are pretty spendy (Lore Seeker at $20, Backup Plan at $10, Cogwork Librarian at $3, Deal Broker at $8, Paliano at $8, Power Play at $3, Worldknit at $9), as well as random foils being very pricey at all rarities.
Finally, consider that it is a very draft-oriented set, so buying a good amount of product is desirable.
It's by no means a value-packed set, but it has plenty going on, moreso than most sets, and a good deal of the cards simply won't be reprinted in the near future in any set, and a good number wouldn't necessarily even show up in a hypothetical Conspiracy 2.
I would have no qualms about holding onto some boxes for value, really. From what I've seen on EV, it's currently just around what you'd expect to pay for a box, meaning the price likely won't go down at all. It won't have a meteoric rise, unless something drastic happens, but it will likely climb some in the next few years.
This set is still available from WOTC direct which is very unusual for a set like this. I'm guessing they thought demand would be higher and still have lots left. If Dak sees enough play in Legacy it could raise prices for this set. Prices could also increase if they don't reprint stifle or exploration in the near future.
I've got a hunch that it'll either mature nicely in monetary value or plain' ol fun-to-play-ness - or both.
What's the cheapest that people have seen publicly available boxes ? I see BIN's for 90-100$ on Ebay.
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Now is also pretty good time to buy a box or boxes Conspiracy if the price is right. I usually try to minimize the time when my funds are tied with boxes, mainly because the development time for boxes can be pretty long. So if you can get boxes for the same value as other people who bought in six months ago, your discounted profits will be higher than for somebody who bought in as soon as possible. This can allow you to sell boxes slightly cheaper and still hit your profit margins. If you don't calculate discounted profits, then forget I wrote the above... I usually buy my cases when the product goes OOP, but distributors still have plentiful product and offer discounts.
Anyway always make certain you only invest money you can afford, otherwise it's very easy to loose money on boxes, as those take some time to sell, unless you are offering discounts, which eat your profits and sometimes even more.
Set to default
Well, things worth noting:
Brainstorm and STP are both "value" commons/uncommons with a TCG player low of $1-2, shipped. Most sets don't even have that.
On top of that, the following are worth $5-10: Council's Judgment, Exporation, Marchesa, Mirrari's Wake, Pernicious Deed, Refecting Pool, and Stifle. There are quite a few $2-5 cards currently also.
Finally, the two big ones are Scourge of thrones ($13 or so) and Dack Fayden ($40), which is pretty good.
Add on top of that that some of the foils of the draft-only cards are pretty spendy (Lore Seeker at $20, Backup Plan at $10, Cogwork Librarian at $3, Deal Broker at $8, Paliano at $8, Power Play at $3, Worldknit at $9), as well as random foils being very pricey at all rarities.
Finally, consider that it is a very draft-oriented set, so buying a good amount of product is desirable.
It's by no means a value-packed set, but it has plenty going on, moreso than most sets, and a good deal of the cards simply won't be reprinted in the near future in any set, and a good number wouldn't necessarily even show up in a hypothetical Conspiracy 2.
I would have no qualms about holding onto some boxes for value, really. From what I've seen on EV, it's currently just around what you'd expect to pay for a box, meaning the price likely won't go down at all. It won't have a meteoric rise, unless something drastic happens, but it will likely climb some in the next few years.
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