I found a box for $225 after shipping. A great deal. I am saving to buy a deck once it is released since the prices of cards will drop down. Should I take this to try and break even and get some great cards as bonus. Or should I let it pass essentially since I have 0 cards in my collection. If i buy it and don't get any cards for the deck I want I am stuck trading. But I can always sell what I open on eBay to turn it around and keep some much needed commons and uncommon a for free. What do you guys think. It's a huge risk since there are no spoilers. Obviously I won't get any of the pricy lands that I want. But since it's a limited run all the prices will just bounce back up on singles after a month.
Yes, I am a local area mod. WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
Primary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
Well supposing I open something I don't need at all like Tarm which many people want and I can trade it for free to get maybe even more value for cards I do want. I'm not sure how big on trading my modern community is but that was the plan. I guess it's kind of in the middle of what you said. I enjoy cracking packs but I can theoretically use anything of value I crack to trade for what I need.
Also the other possibility is I keep everything I open and maybe when I decide to build a new deck which I do often because I love having multiples then I have some cards already. Still not the best reason I suppose.
In europe MM15 boxes have been dropping pretty steeply. Cheapest boxes are 190 euros, which at current rates is about 200$. Several sellers, who presold one allocation of boxes (at 230 euros) are now selling below 200.
To me that indicates pretty deep supply promised to stores and retailers. I'm waiting for 180 euros prices, before preordering a box or two and after the set comes out and values bottom, I will buy a few more boxes, if the draft format is good enough (even half as good as MMa was, would be enough for few boxes).
The difference betwen EU and US is that unless WotC has updated their selling prices to importers, low Euro makes our prices much cheaper in dollars. If before stores bought boxes at 62 euros, it used to be 90,5$. Now with one euro being 1,06$, the stores pay only 65,72$ per box. For MM15 it might mean that EU can expect cheaper box prices this time around...
Or maybe the currency rates has been updated and I'm just hoping for 150$ boxes of MM15.
So you think maybe WOTC has told vendors and shops that they are getting more product or even a second shipment and that is why prices are dropping? The retail MSRP is stil $240 a box so they can't print so many that once it's released the boxes go for less then 240. I hope I didn't jump the gun if they are dropping more.
It sure as heck can go below $240. When was the last time you paid $144 for a box of standard packs? Wholesale is around $75/box of standard and was $97 for the first modern masters (retail $168). So my guess is that dealers are paying close to $140 a box.
That being said everyone is holding out for much higher margins than standard, and will gladly let them sit rather than go much below MSRP. Even if the supply is enormous you will mainly have people who are cashflow poor or non-lgs (sports card dealers and what not) who are going to sump this fast.
The first Modern Masters was reasonably available from May-October at $235 a box. Not shocking to me that the MSRP is where it is. My Pricing predictions
Now-Spoilers $200-$220
Spoilers-Launch $240-300
After PT through Fall $220-$240
Next Spring $300
My shop was told last weekend that their allotment of 8 cases has been doubled to 16 cases. They're hesitant to place an order for a full 16 cases because of the fear of the flood of cards into the marketplace (and selling them at MSRP could become a liability). Nothing about this tells me that MM2015 will be limited in any capacity - one of wizards' goals is to get as many people able to play modern as possible. The more they print the staples, the easier it'll be to get them.
I do not expect this to be a limited run and I do not expect prices to jump back up after a month.
Well, they have stated that it's a limited run, so the question just comes down to what is 'limited'. As opposed to 'unlimited for a time period' like all of the other releases (with exceptions, of course). I think the fact that the price is going down on the boxes says a lot. People in my LGS are talking of ordering a case each to make big money. I think they're crazy -- I'm actually not planning on ordering any boxes, and I usually order boxes of everything to stash away. I think there are going to be a lot of disappointed people and that the packs will be easy to find at $10 for a long time.
I bought my MM1 booster boxes at $220 and sold them at $350 in the past two months. With this release, I'd expect the value of MM1 booster boxes to go down, and I think that the rate of increase for MM2 boxes will be much much lower than MM1.
MCM box price is down to 185 euros per box, with a case availlable at that level and additional 40 boxes at below 200 euros.
If the supply is as high, as some sellers seem to believe, the biggest value generator is the playability of the draft format. That is the biggets reason I bought into MMa, as being able to run drafts was very good times for all. If the draft format is again amazing, the demand will be there and the boxes will stay at around the MSRP, if the limited is solved too fast or doesn't have the depth of archetypes that will keep it redraftable, the boxes will keep dropping.
Large availlability will mean quite a drop for the cards in the set though and it should take much longer for them to recover than it took for MMa. This suggests that it's a great opportunity for anybody wanting to buy in to modern, but not for mrgfinance types who wnat fast profits. I will be buying singles, putting them in storage and rechecking the prices every 6 months.
Reprinting goyf and jace didn't make boxes of worldwake and timesprial cheap. MM1 boxes will always hold money as the draft format was memeorable, and they are scare. MM2 will eventually become scarce (there is one print run, even if it is big). Hopefully the draft format will be as good. It is all a question of time horizons. If it takes 6 months to get over MSRP, I think they did their job. Any longer and I think we wont see modern masters 3 take longer than 2 years to appear. Or at least MM3 will have a shorter print run.
I agree. wizards stated it is a limited print run. May not be as limited as MM was but I think you would be lucky to find packs at $10 a pop after release. Just talked to my LGS and they said they are still only getting 12 cases. That's only 48 boxes. They are using 11 boxes for the prerelease meaning they only have 37 boxes that they are getting and saving for draft and priZes. Which the entry fees for both draft and sealed come out to $15 a pack. I bought the box because I truly believe that like you all said. wizards must make it possible for me to get $10 value per pack. With fouls in everyone reprinting a serum vision would be a $14 foil common. Making that one pack amazing. Maybe I don't even crack my box and I trade it away for a play set of $70 cards. Who knows.
There's been a lot of discussion about this on the MM thread in the rumor forum. Consensus is stores are capped at 12 cases from WotC for the biggest stores and can get more from their distributors thereafter, but many distributors are tying ordering limits in, meaning you have to order x amount of other product for every 1 case of MM15 you want. In contrast, distributors didn't get much MM1, and what they did get quickly sold since they didn't attach order limits, as far as I know. My guess is that they are increasing the amount distributors get this time around, and keeping stores at similar levels, and they may push a second wave of orders out in late June, but if they do that, I'm also guessing it will be about half the size of the initial wave, resulting in an approximate English printing run of 1.75-2x the original run.
I've preordered three cases at about $203 a box average, so I'm hoping this does well in the secondary market. I'd like to sell two cases and keep one.
There's been a lot of discussion about this on the MM thread in the rumor forum. Consensus is stores are capped at 12 cases from WotC for the biggest stores and can get more from their distributors thereafter, but many distributors are tying ordering limits in, meaning you have to order x amount of other product for every 1 case of MM15 you want. In contrast, distributors didn't get much MM1, and what they did get quickly sold since they didn't attach order limits, as far as I know. My guess is that they are increasing the amount distributors get this time around, and keeping stores at similar levels, and they may push a second wave of orders out in late June, but if they do that, I'm also guessing it will be about half the size of the initial wave, resulting in an approximate English printing run of 1.75-2x the original run.
I've preordered three cases at about $203 a box average, so I'm hoping this does well in the secondary market. I'd like to sell two cases and keep one.
My LGS has 12 cases guaranteed but each case is only 4 boxes. He was also told that after this, there will be no more MM 2015. No tie in orders, no prints, no hold backs like MM1. He was told this by his distributors and WOTC. He told us that he thinks he will get less MM2015 than MM1.
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Yes, I am a local area mod.WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVEPrimary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
Fill up your trade binder
Wait, then flip the whole box or cards
Draft with friends
Bad reasons to buy a box:
Crack packs hoping to get the exact cards that you need
Stay reasonable, be mindful of your expectations and don't feed the trolls.
Doomsdayin'
Also the other possibility is I keep everything I open and maybe when I decide to build a new deck which I do often because I love having multiples then I have some cards already. Still not the best reason I suppose.
To me that indicates pretty deep supply promised to stores and retailers. I'm waiting for 180 euros prices, before preordering a box or two and after the set comes out and values bottom, I will buy a few more boxes, if the draft format is good enough (even half as good as MMa was, would be enough for few boxes).
The difference betwen EU and US is that unless WotC has updated their selling prices to importers, low Euro makes our prices much cheaper in dollars. If before stores bought boxes at 62 euros, it used to be 90,5$. Now with one euro being 1,06$, the stores pay only 65,72$ per box. For MM15 it might mean that EU can expect cheaper box prices this time around...
Or maybe the currency rates has been updated and I'm just hoping for 150$ boxes of MM15.
Set to default
That being said everyone is holding out for much higher margins than standard, and will gladly let them sit rather than go much below MSRP. Even if the supply is enormous you will mainly have people who are cashflow poor or non-lgs (sports card dealers and what not) who are going to sump this fast.
The first Modern Masters was reasonably available from May-October at $235 a box. Not shocking to me that the MSRP is where it is. My Pricing predictions
Now-Spoilers $200-$220
Spoilers-Launch $240-300
After PT through Fall $220-$240
Next Spring $300
What I would like to see.
All 5 rare sword equipment.
Azusa, Lost But Seeking
All 5 Praetors (what's the point in just printing Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite?)
Mox Opal
Serum Visions
Fulminator Mage
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Spellskite
Wilt-Leaf Liege
All 5 filter lands such as Twilight Mire
+ all those expensive commander staples in modern legal sets
Tall order I know but it has to worth paying $15 a pack which is what we've been told we'll be paying here.
I do not expect this to be a limited run and I do not expect prices to jump back up after a month.
I bought my MM1 booster boxes at $220 and sold them at $350 in the past two months. With this release, I'd expect the value of MM1 booster boxes to go down, and I think that the rate of increase for MM2 boxes will be much much lower than MM1.
If the supply is as high, as some sellers seem to believe, the biggest value generator is the playability of the draft format. That is the biggets reason I bought into MMa, as being able to run drafts was very good times for all. If the draft format is again amazing, the demand will be there and the boxes will stay at around the MSRP, if the limited is solved too fast or doesn't have the depth of archetypes that will keep it redraftable, the boxes will keep dropping.
Large availlability will mean quite a drop for the cards in the set though and it should take much longer for them to recover than it took for MMa. This suggests that it's a great opportunity for anybody wanting to buy in to modern, but not for mrgfinance types who wnat fast profits. I will be buying singles, putting them in storage and rechecking the prices every 6 months.
Set to default
I've preordered three cases at about $203 a box average, so I'm hoping this does well in the secondary market. I'd like to sell two cases and keep one.
My LGS has 12 cases guaranteed but each case is only 4 boxes. He was also told that after this, there will be no more MM 2015. No tie in orders, no prints, no hold backs like MM1. He was told this by his distributors and WOTC. He told us that he thinks he will get less MM2015 than MM1.