A guy I know is selling a full set of Unlimited power 9, and I was thinking of grabbing the lotus off him. The card is in good shape, roughly 8-8.5 out of 10 in condition. The card is verified authentic, however it is NOT professionally graded. I'd be buying as an investment, with the prospect of doubling my money in a couple years. I would have it graded once I own it. Anyone want to offer some input on the future value of a white bordered Black Lotus? I'd be buying it for roughly 70% of its current retail value.
*Edit - meant to say Unlimited not revised in title lol
Power 9 only exists in Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited. If you are buying Revised Power 9, it's fake.
If you mean to say unlimited, though, and you have had it authenticated, you really can't do wrong if you have the cash (i.e are not taking out a loan to front the money). Short of Magic going belly-up, power prices are only going to drift and sometimes spike upward.
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Yah my bad I brain farted, Unlimited ( Edited thread )
I have the money, I could buy the whole power set if I wanted to but its tough to justify the money, with no guarantee on return. Have power cards historically ALWAYS rose, or were there ups and downs in value in the past? I'd hate to buy this thing for 3-4K, then next year its worth 2.
Yah my bad I brain farted, Unlimited ( Edited thread )
I have the money, I could buy the whole power set if I wanted to but its tough to justify the money, with no guarantee on return. Have power cards historically ALWAYS rose, or were there ups and downs in value in the past? I'd hate to buy this thing for 3-4K, then next year its worth 2.
There have been ups and downs, but nothing so severe as a 50% loss. 10%, possibly, but you're not going to be losing money on this.
You probably aren't going to double your money in a couple years like you say in the OP, either. Power has just had a recent spike, so going to double is not terribly likely that soon. You'll probably make a profit after your two years, though, and if you get it graded (and it's as nice as you say) you'll definitely make a profit.
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Buying after a card has spiked is usually a bad idea. Sure, there is the mentality of "Better late than never", but I feel like there's going to be some time before the price equalizes. Like, SCG has 13 Unl Lotus up on their site right now, which I'm pretty sure is the exact amount they had up two months ago. That being said, if you are getting the lotus for less than $4k, and it really is NM, then I think you can rest somewhat easy since a couple sites are buylisting for $4.5k. Heck, it doesn't even seem that long ago where people were trying to sell theirs on this site for between $800 and $1,500.
1) Good condition power is almost never a *bad* investment. Because of the reserve list and the extremely limited supply and comparatively high demand for the cards, there's literally nowhere for them to go but up, at least in the long term. However, we may be talking 5-10 years or more before you see "double" your invested amount.
2) That said, Power has spiked multiple times over the past year and a half. 18 months ago, unlimited non-blue moxen were 600-800 on the large sites. 6 months ago, they were around $1000. Now, they're $1200-1500. I haven't tracked lotus over the same period, but they're generally pretty proportionally connected. This means that you are most certainly "buying high". While it is unlikely for the price to drop, especially long term, there may be room for some short-term falls in the next year or so if the new prices aren't sustainable.
3) The above prices are what the stores are selling for. Buylist prices are generally 60% or lower of that, and I've heard tell that, especially when it comes to Power that isn't minty-fresh, their buylist prices are NOT what you're going to get. Even an SP Lotus might get only 20-25% of the "NM" Buylist price SCG offers, and their condition gradings are particularly harsh. This means you're going to be relying primarily on a peer-to-peer sale rather than a peer-to-store sale if you want to make a profit, and the higher prices get, the fewer people there are going to be willing to shell out that kind of money, especially to a person (where they can't be sure if you're trading them a counterfeit).
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I think power is great investment assuming you can be sure of finding real ones.
If you can find a reputable seller with a mid-level BGS grade black lotus, that would be ideal. I think black lotus as an investment holds supreme compared to the other power cards, and that this cycle of Vintage spikes showed that. Black Lotus really is in a league of its own. From 3 years ago, my moxen doubled, but my lotus more than tripled.
That being said, before you buy power, you have to be willing to hold it in the long run. If history is any indication, Vintage price gains have been completely sporadic.
Imagine three years of black Lotus's price going nowhere, and then tripling within a span of 7 months. If you look at some of the old threads here, people claim that vintage was rising at an average of 2% a year. These people were right. Vintage has in the past been punctuated by huge periods of stagnation, even though in the very long run 5+ years, it has always risen very well.
But there is one reason why I'm convinced vintage is poised to gain this year and the next few years.
Recently there have been major fundamental changes in the magic market. Every single non-reserve list staple has been reprinted with very very few exceptions.
Wizards has been on an absolute reprinting tear. What does that mean? It means that the long term trend of every non-reserve list card is down.
What does that mean? What are the implications if the long term trend is down? Obviously most directly it means price drops across the board. But what else?
I foresee three implications:
1. Buy Later Mentality: Why buy now when you can just get it for cheaper later? If I can wait for a second reprint I will. Have you seen the posts here? People talk about waiting years just to save a few bucks all the time. People hate to see their card values drop. In spite of what other people say is good for the health of magic, players don't like seeing cards they have bought into drop in price. If people can wait to buy, they will.
2. Major changes in collection makeups. Gone are the days with people hoarding 5 playsets of Tarmogoyfs. It used to be the case you could hold twenty thousand in modern staples and feel ok about it. The cards were easy to move, likely to rise, and you would only get dinged every now and then from a reprint. Now you would be insane to. Nobody in their right mind should hold 5 playsets of tarmogoyfs because its just too much money to lose. Unless you run your own shop, I forsee most players reducing their non-reserve list collections considerably.
3. Flight to safety. People will move their modern staples to cards that are rock solid value wise. Black Lotus, other Power Nine, Bazaar, Library, reserve list cards. The thing about holding 10 or 20 thousand dollars worth of value in a collection is that moving that collection is going to be slow. I wouldn't sink 20 grand into thoughtseize because I can't move them fast enough, nor do I have the patience to watch the market daily. On the other hand, if I had 20k and moved it into power, even if I couldnt move the cards right away, its no biggie. In fact, the longer the cards take the sell, the greater the chance I might profit.
The fundamental changes make vintage look more attractive than ever, both as a collectible that will go up over time, and a safe haven that wont be affected by reprints.
Lots of excellent points in this thread. Perhaps to add to TomCat - could the MTGO Vintage Masters have also created new interest in Power 9?
I'm always in favor of buying something for less than its value, particularly when there is likely to be a somewhat ready market for it. But please be careful about what you are applying your 70% to. There appears to be a sizable gap between eBay sold values ($3-3.5K for LP? copies) and TCG prices ($4.4K for LP copies).
I personally like Power as something to have, but dislike it as pure investment. Ul Lotuses are for playing...
As other people have noted, Vintage prices are pretty hard to forecast for longer periods. I have gone through three Ul Lotuses in the last three years. Selling ungraded, but mintish Ul lotus for 800 €. Then selling a SP Lotus for 1,2k€ just six months later. Now the prices are even crazier. I was a steady P9 buyer before the last spike, but now haolding 3k in one card, I'm not even playing, is not something I feel comfortable with, as other cards should have better return and sealed product is safer bet. I do have one P9 set for own use though. I'm just not buying more, unless the deal is really good.
It is entirely possible that new players will keep finding Vintage, either through MtGO or some other way and keep the demand going, but more likely the prices will stay relatively stagnant until the prices jump again maybe ten years from now. Alpha P9 are different, as the scarcity will keep driving prices up and there are still new collectors who feel that full alpha sets are the holy grail of MtG and plenty of older collectors who keep buying alpha cards they feel are underpriced. So for investment I would suggest a nice alpha Lotus instead of Ul, as safer option, if that is what you are looking for.
Lots of excellent points in this thread. Perhaps to add to TomCat - could the MTGO Vintage Masters have also created new interest in Power 9?
I'm always in favor of buying something for less than its value, particularly when there is likely to be a somewhat ready market for it. But please be careful about what you are applying your 70% to. There appears to be a sizable gap between eBay sold values ($3-3.5K for LP? copies) and TCG prices ($4.4K for LP copies).
There have been two major factors recently increasing the price of Power:
1) Vintage Masters. With Vintage finally being a real thing on MTGO, a lot of players are getting their first exposure to the format. There are major streamers that play in Vintage tournaments on MTGO, post articles about it, etc, which only drives the demand for paper Power.
2) The Glut of Modern Reprints. As TomCat said, this has decreased the stability of "investing" in Modern reprints, but it also drives the price of Power (and other things like Duals) in a couple of other ways
-People will trade Legacy (and even Vintage) stuff for things like Fetches, Shocks, Goyfs, Bobs, Thoughtseize, and other cards that are playable across Eternal formats. These cards being available in in-print packs means that more people are capable of trading for Reserved cards, meaning that the demand for them goes up. (Especially because, after you trade for one, you need to acquire more to actually do something with the first)
-Cards being more available means that other cards in the decks those cards are played in tend to go up. Zen Fetches spiked when it was announced they would not be in Modern Masters, and further spiked as people opened MMA and started building Modern decks with their spoils. A similar effect happens in Legacy and Vintage. And when the non-Reserved cards are almost all being reprinted, that means it's only the Reserved cards that are going up. If you're opening Goyfs and Fetches and decide you want to play RUG Delver, that means you need to acquire Trops and Volcanics, for example, driving demand for those cards.
Edit: I'm not sure when this happened, but recently SCG upped the price of NM Unlimited Lotus to SEVEN thousand dollars. As of a few months ago, that number was $4k, meaning they're predicting and/or causing another spike. If you can get your Lotus at 70% of eBay/TCG, it's probably a good time to jump on it. If you're paying 70% of SCG though, avoid.
SCG had NM lotus at 8k or so for a short period. That period was directly after GP NJ last November where they went around the hall and bought all the power because they could not keep it in stock. They had a sanctioned vintage side event at GP NJ as well and the attendance it drew was gigantic in terms of vintage I can't give a number but it was pretty high. VMA on modo increased interest in vintage quite a bit so that's why power spiked across the board. The only power piece that hasn't done much in terms of increasing is time vault and that's because it's power 10 and not the fabled power 9 that go in virtually every vintage deck.
I like power as an investment. Black lotus is the best investment in all of MTG due to how iconic it is and the reserved list status settings it in stone how many copies are out there.
That being said, power is a long term investment. Not close to short term. The shortest time it took power to substantially increase was just this last year where VMA was announced, it came out, and half a year after VMA came out power increased dramatically. That's a year/while not that long is still pretty long on cards you're dropping thousands on. And it will probably be many years before lotus/power 9 spikes so drastically again although there is no way to know for sure unfortunately.
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SCG had NM lotus at 8k or so for a short period. That period was directly after GP NJ last November where they went around the hall and bought all the power because they could not keep it in stock. They had a sanctioned vintage side event at GP NJ as well and the attendance it drew was gigantic in terms of vintage I can't give a number but it was pretty high. VMA on modo increased interest in vintage quite a bit so that's why power spiked across the board. The only power piece that hasn't done much in terms of increasing is time vault and that's because it's power 10 and not the fabled power 9 that go in virtually every vintage deck.
I like power as an investment. Black lotus is the best investment in all of MTG due to how iconic it is and the reserved list status settings it in stone how many copies are out there.
That being said, power is a long term investment. Not close to short term. The shortest time it took power to substantially increase was just this last year where VMA was announced, it came out, and half a year after VMA came out power increased dramatically. That's a year/while not that long is still pretty long on cards you're dropping thousands on. And it will probably be many years before lotus/power 9 spikes so drastically again although there is no way to know for sure unfortunately.
I hate to be that guy, but if you've got the money to "invest" in a Black Lotus, you'd be much better off putting the money in a low-cost index fund. Your returns will not be tied to the game's existence, and you'll have a much easier time cashing out if you so ever choose. Thinking long-time (30+ years), I'd feel much more comfortable putting $5k into a quality mutual fund or ETF, rather that in a single MTG card. Also, high-end MTG cards are very hard to move.
I hate to be that guy, but if you've got the money to "invest" in a Black Lotus, you'd be much better off putting the money in a low-cost index fund. Your returns will not be tied to the game's existence, and you'll have a much easier time cashing out if you so ever choose. Thinking long-time (30+ years), I'd feel much more comfortable putting $5k into a quality mutual fund or ETF, rather that in a single MTG card. Also, high-end MTG cards are very hard to move.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but for me personally this is very dependent on the market conditions. In the past 80 years there have only been two times when the Shiller P/E ratio has been this high. The first was in 1929 just before the great depression, and the second was in 2000, just before the .com bust. About 6 months ago, it would have been three times, the third being 2008 before mortgage-backed securities collapsed which brought down most of the market with it. But we past that mark in January.
Contrast this with the price of power 9 in the same time period (discounting 1929 for obvious reasons) - high demand magic cards have held - if not gained value - when the financial sector suffered. Granted power 9 is near their all time high right now, but so is the magic player base. And unlike stocks, money, gold, diamonds, oil, coal, or gas, you can't issue/print/mine any more Power 9 - they're on the reserved list.
Even if we look at 2009 which was an excellent time to get into almost any fund, the same purchase of key reserved list cards kept up - if not beat - the best funds in the last 6 years.
30 years is a long time to guess if Magic, WoTC or for that matter Hasbro is still in business, but I think there will be plenty of time to watch the growth of the player base, see if we near or hit a peak, and sell before any panic fire sales start. Especially for the game's most iconic card.
*Edit - meant to say Unlimited not revised in title lol
If you mean to say unlimited, though, and you have had it authenticated, you really can't do wrong if you have the cash (i.e are not taking out a loan to front the money). Short of Magic going belly-up, power prices are only going to drift and sometimes spike upward.
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I have the money, I could buy the whole power set if I wanted to but its tough to justify the money, with no guarantee on return. Have power cards historically ALWAYS rose, or were there ups and downs in value in the past? I'd hate to buy this thing for 3-4K, then next year its worth 2.
There have been ups and downs, but nothing so severe as a 50% loss. 10%, possibly, but you're not going to be losing money on this.
You probably aren't going to double your money in a couple years like you say in the OP, either. Power has just had a recent spike, so going to double is not terribly likely that soon. You'll probably make a profit after your two years, though, and if you get it graded (and it's as nice as you say) you'll definitely make a profit.
Even being able to buy one in a decent condition is getting rarer by the day.
Buy it, get it into a slab. If you have the money to spare and it's something that you want to do jump in.
1) Good condition power is almost never a *bad* investment. Because of the reserve list and the extremely limited supply and comparatively high demand for the cards, there's literally nowhere for them to go but up, at least in the long term. However, we may be talking 5-10 years or more before you see "double" your invested amount.
2) That said, Power has spiked multiple times over the past year and a half. 18 months ago, unlimited non-blue moxen were 600-800 on the large sites. 6 months ago, they were around $1000. Now, they're $1200-1500. I haven't tracked lotus over the same period, but they're generally pretty proportionally connected. This means that you are most certainly "buying high". While it is unlikely for the price to drop, especially long term, there may be room for some short-term falls in the next year or so if the new prices aren't sustainable.
3) The above prices are what the stores are selling for. Buylist prices are generally 60% or lower of that, and I've heard tell that, especially when it comes to Power that isn't minty-fresh, their buylist prices are NOT what you're going to get. Even an SP Lotus might get only 20-25% of the "NM" Buylist price SCG offers, and their condition gradings are particularly harsh. This means you're going to be relying primarily on a peer-to-peer sale rather than a peer-to-store sale if you want to make a profit, and the higher prices get, the fewer people there are going to be willing to shell out that kind of money, especially to a person (where they can't be sure if you're trading them a counterfeit).
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If you can find a reputable seller with a mid-level BGS grade black lotus, that would be ideal. I think black lotus as an investment holds supreme compared to the other power cards, and that this cycle of Vintage spikes showed that. Black Lotus really is in a league of its own. From 3 years ago, my moxen doubled, but my lotus more than tripled.
That being said, before you buy power, you have to be willing to hold it in the long run. If history is any indication, Vintage price gains have been completely sporadic.
Imagine three years of black Lotus's price going nowhere, and then tripling within a span of 7 months. If you look at some of the old threads here, people claim that vintage was rising at an average of 2% a year. These people were right. Vintage has in the past been punctuated by huge periods of stagnation, even though in the very long run 5+ years, it has always risen very well.
But there is one reason why I'm convinced vintage is poised to gain this year and the next few years.
Recently there have been major fundamental changes in the magic market. Every single non-reserve list staple has been reprinted with very very few exceptions.
Wizards has been on an absolute reprinting tear. What does that mean? It means that the long term trend of every non-reserve list card is down.
What does that mean? What are the implications if the long term trend is down? Obviously most directly it means price drops across the board. But what else?
I foresee three implications:
1. Buy Later Mentality: Why buy now when you can just get it for cheaper later? If I can wait for a second reprint I will. Have you seen the posts here? People talk about waiting years just to save a few bucks all the time. People hate to see their card values drop. In spite of what other people say is good for the health of magic, players don't like seeing cards they have bought into drop in price. If people can wait to buy, they will.
2. Major changes in collection makeups. Gone are the days with people hoarding 5 playsets of Tarmogoyfs. It used to be the case you could hold twenty thousand in modern staples and feel ok about it. The cards were easy to move, likely to rise, and you would only get dinged every now and then from a reprint. Now you would be insane to. Nobody in their right mind should hold 5 playsets of tarmogoyfs because its just too much money to lose. Unless you run your own shop, I forsee most players reducing their non-reserve list collections considerably.
3. Flight to safety. People will move their modern staples to cards that are rock solid value wise. Black Lotus, other Power Nine, Bazaar, Library, reserve list cards. The thing about holding 10 or 20 thousand dollars worth of value in a collection is that moving that collection is going to be slow. I wouldn't sink 20 grand into thoughtseize because I can't move them fast enough, nor do I have the patience to watch the market daily. On the other hand, if I had 20k and moved it into power, even if I couldnt move the cards right away, its no biggie. In fact, the longer the cards take the sell, the greater the chance I might profit.
The fundamental changes make vintage look more attractive than ever, both as a collectible that will go up over time, and a safe haven that wont be affected by reprints.
I'm always in favor of buying something for less than its value, particularly when there is likely to be a somewhat ready market for it. But please be careful about what you are applying your 70% to. There appears to be a sizable gap between eBay sold values ($3-3.5K for LP? copies) and TCG prices ($4.4K for LP copies).
As other people have noted, Vintage prices are pretty hard to forecast for longer periods. I have gone through three Ul Lotuses in the last three years. Selling ungraded, but mintish Ul lotus for 800 €. Then selling a SP Lotus for 1,2k€ just six months later. Now the prices are even crazier. I was a steady P9 buyer before the last spike, but now haolding 3k in one card, I'm not even playing, is not something I feel comfortable with, as other cards should have better return and sealed product is safer bet. I do have one P9 set for own use though. I'm just not buying more, unless the deal is really good.
It is entirely possible that new players will keep finding Vintage, either through MtGO or some other way and keep the demand going, but more likely the prices will stay relatively stagnant until the prices jump again maybe ten years from now. Alpha P9 are different, as the scarcity will keep driving prices up and there are still new collectors who feel that full alpha sets are the holy grail of MtG and plenty of older collectors who keep buying alpha cards they feel are underpriced. So for investment I would suggest a nice alpha Lotus instead of Ul, as safer option, if that is what you are looking for.
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There have been two major factors recently increasing the price of Power:
1) Vintage Masters. With Vintage finally being a real thing on MTGO, a lot of players are getting their first exposure to the format. There are major streamers that play in Vintage tournaments on MTGO, post articles about it, etc, which only drives the demand for paper Power.
2) The Glut of Modern Reprints. As TomCat said, this has decreased the stability of "investing" in Modern reprints, but it also drives the price of Power (and other things like Duals) in a couple of other ways
-People will trade Legacy (and even Vintage) stuff for things like Fetches, Shocks, Goyfs, Bobs, Thoughtseize, and other cards that are playable across Eternal formats. These cards being available in in-print packs means that more people are capable of trading for Reserved cards, meaning that the demand for them goes up. (Especially because, after you trade for one, you need to acquire more to actually do something with the first)
-Cards being more available means that other cards in the decks those cards are played in tend to go up. Zen Fetches spiked when it was announced they would not be in Modern Masters, and further spiked as people opened MMA and started building Modern decks with their spoils. A similar effect happens in Legacy and Vintage. And when the non-Reserved cards are almost all being reprinted, that means it's only the Reserved cards that are going up. If you're opening Goyfs and Fetches and decide you want to play RUG Delver, that means you need to acquire Trops and Volcanics, for example, driving demand for those cards.
Edit: I'm not sure when this happened, but recently SCG upped the price of NM Unlimited Lotus to SEVEN thousand dollars. As of a few months ago, that number was $4k, meaning they're predicting and/or causing another spike. If you can get your Lotus at 70% of eBay/TCG, it's probably a good time to jump on it. If you're paying 70% of SCG though, avoid.
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I like power as an investment. Black lotus is the best investment in all of MTG due to how iconic it is and the reserved list status settings it in stone how many copies are out there.
That being said, power is a long term investment. Not close to short term. The shortest time it took power to substantially increase was just this last year where VMA was announced, it came out, and half a year after VMA came out power increased dramatically. That's a year/while not that long is still pretty long on cards you're dropping thousands on. And it will probably be many years before lotus/power 9 spikes so drastically again although there is no way to know for sure unfortunately.
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I hate to be that guy, but if you've got the money to "invest" in a Black Lotus, you'd be much better off putting the money in a low-cost index fund. Your returns will not be tied to the game's existence, and you'll have a much easier time cashing out if you so ever choose. Thinking long-time (30+ years), I'd feel much more comfortable putting $5k into a quality mutual fund or ETF, rather that in a single MTG card. Also, high-end MTG cards are very hard to move.
Contrast this with the price of power 9 in the same time period (discounting 1929 for obvious reasons) - high demand magic cards have held - if not gained value - when the financial sector suffered. Granted power 9 is near their all time high right now, but so is the magic player base. And unlike stocks, money, gold, diamonds, oil, coal, or gas, you can't issue/print/mine any more Power 9 - they're on the reserved list.
Even if we look at 2009 which was an excellent time to get into almost any fund, the same purchase of key reserved list cards kept up - if not beat - the best funds in the last 6 years.
30 years is a long time to guess if Magic, WoTC or for that matter Hasbro is still in business, but I think there will be plenty of time to watch the growth of the player base, see if we near or hit a peak, and sell before any panic fire sales start. Especially for the game's most iconic card.