I don't think enough product has been opened up yet. At my LGS, all the dragons are pretty much impossible to trade for, even the rare ones. Atarka and Dromokas command are hard to get as well, along with Haven of the Spirit Dragon. Some of the other cards trade pretty frequently, like the raptor and dragon whisperer.
It's too soon since Fate Reforged. It's called wallet fatigue.
This is about normal anyway. Prices for Khans were sky high for the first couple of months before freefalling to reasonable levels.
Everybody has their eye on the Esper Dragons deck. How it performs over coming weeks will play a big part in prices.
Yup. People at my LGS are now saving up modern masters instead of springing for packs, so the only new product entering circulation is what is used for our weekly draft, and as prize payouts for FNM, and that's really it. It really doesn't feel like there was enough time between the set releases.
Yup. People at my LGS are now saving up modern masters instead of springing for packs, so the only new product entering circulation is what is used for our weekly draft, and as prize payouts for FNM, and that's really it. It really doesn't feel like there was enough time between the set releases.
The first week was "Got Narset?"
Then it became "Got Atarka?"
This week it's "Got Ojutai?"
Nobody is buying this set to open. Everybody is so loaded with standard staples from previous sets they would prefer to trade but of course this isn't possible when people don't have the cards. If you go out of your way to mail order some singles you're not going to be trading them away. My LGS tends to sell out of uncommons very quickly indeed. Silumgar's Scorn and Foul-Tongue Invocation are hard to get hold of.
Ask and you shall receive. This update I am looking primarily at ebay NM playsets and then dividing that by 4 to get the individual values, once again at the lower end of the buy it now range in addition to cross checking with the lower end of the range for NM prices on tcgplayer. Value changes from last update will he shown in ( ) after the prices.
Total set value:
Mythics: $139 (-$4)
Rares: $60 (-$10)
Uncommon/Common set: $10 (-$1)
Total singles set value: $209 (-$15)
Overall Average box value:
Mythics: $139/15 = $9.27/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $42 (-$1)
Rares: $60/53 = $1.13 x 31.5 rares/box = $35 (-$7)
Uncommon/Common set: $10 x 1.3 sets = $13 (-$1)
Foils: $6 (-$1)
Overall average box value: $96 (-$10)
Looks like reality finally set in for the set, as while certain cards still went up a bit, many of the cards also went down, with several cards falling off the list, and narset dropping nearly as much as a certain dragon lord went up. Overall the mythics were on average fairly stable, the rares took a hit though, which accounted for the majority of the drop in overall average box value. Still though, $96 isn't a bad box value at all, though a lot really depends on the future impact of mtgo redemptions and what modern masters release will do to the gradual supply increase that would normally be present for a set like dragons of tarkir. Will be interesting to see where the value of the set goes into the future, though I suspect we will continue to see some natural settling as I think the majority of the increases we are likely to see have largely already occurred.
Anyhow, I don't know when I will have time to do another update, but as soon as I can, I will. I hope you all enjoy this update and find it informative :).
Dragonlord Ojutai is up another $2 to $32! All the doubts about this being an unplayable set have been dispelled. Casuals never wanted to trade away their dragons, competitive players are them for Tier 1 decks, and value traders are concerned the dragons will rise further in value.
I don't play Standard much these days. Should I get out of my 2nd Ojutai and Atarka now? I could get a Snapcaster Mage for those two, for goodness sake!
- Protection (hexproof or blink).
- Evasion (flying or unblockable).
- Card advantage or at least parity.
which happens to fall a lot on blue abilities and Wizards is happy to oblige in printing some combinations of that in almost every set:
Ætherling: superb protection and evasion, not costing a card for either. prognostic sphinx: protection costing a card, evasion, card filtering. pearl lake ancient: superb protection, no evasion, no card advantage. dragonlord ojutai: protection (may need to cast a card if you attack), evasion, card advantage.
Dragonlord Ojutai has no value outside of standard (except casual dragon lovers) and there is almost a 100% guarantee that both Magic Origin and Battle for Zendikar will have some sort of blue finisher. They may or may not be better than Ojutai. Currently, Ojutai is a better version of prognostic sphinx on almost all front. It's the current best-of-breed. Still, I'd think it is near its apex now.
Almost everything below Atarka's Command should be bulk prices in a month. Obvious exceptions are Den Protector and Haven.
Narset might not go lower than $20 and Sarkhan might not go lower than $10.
I think Dragonlord Atarka is probably worth about $10 and will settle a bit. Same with Dragonlord Silumgar which will probably settle a couple of dollars lower.
Everything else not mentioned I think should be fairly stable in the short term and the more playable cards might even start rising as the set stops being opened like we saw from Goblin Rabblemaster in M15 which took a while to get moving but as the rest of the set fell down it rose to pay for the boxes it was coming out of.
I agreement that Den Protector and Haven will likely stay with value, but I'll add one to that list -- Collected Company is seeing play in modern, and it's usage in standard appears to be rising, so that I suspect that will hold strong as well.
Den Protector is becoming one of the most common green creatures played in standard, Dragons is going to be put on the back burner very quickly as Magic Origins and Modern Masters take its thunder. I can imagine this set might end up somewhat unopened overall like some 3rd sets do in the block.
Obviously the set has strong value and that will keep people aware of it, but if Magic Origins looks good and Modern Masters 2 draws eyes away it will do nothing but help the single prices go up or hold.
Den Protector is becoming one of the most common green creatures played in standard, Dragons is going to be put on the back burner very quickly as Magic Origins and Modern Masters take its thunder. I can imagine this set might end up somewhat unopened overall like some 3rd sets do in the block.
Obviously the set has strong value and that will keep people aware of it, but if Magic Origins looks good and Modern Masters 2 draws eyes away it will do nothing but help the single prices go up or hold.
Den Protector is up yet another dollar, now above $7. Is this guy really so good? I don't see him as Siege Rhino quality, and thus don't think he can maintain this price. The fact that he is outclassed in all non-standard formats (including EDH) makes me skeptical about this price. Is this a buy, hold, or sell?
EDIT: Didn't see GP Toronto field 25 copies in the Top 8. Crazy!
Why do you think he is outclassed in all formats? What makes him so good is the instant speed toolbox that he brings. Play him morphed as a 2/2 for 3 (superior to Eternal Witness from a p/t perspective), and for another 1G you get an instant speed card return, +1 power, and flip triggers. If you've played with him, you know how good the instant speed card return is. Den Protector + Deathmist Raptor + instant speed cards (like Dromoka's Command) are insane together. I've had numerous situations where an opponent cast a burn spell at one of my creatures, and in response I flip den protector, bring deathmist raptor onto the battlefield, grab dromoka's command, cast it, cancel the burn spell, and kill one of their creatures by fighting. Talk about card advantage... They cast a burn spell at me, and they ended up with the spell cancelled, a creature dead, and I got a creature back...
Why do you think he is outclassed in all formats? What makes him so good is the instant speed toolbox that he brings. Play him morphed as a 2/2 for 3 (superior to Eternal Witness from a p/t perspective), and for another 1G you get an instant speed card return, +1 power, and flip triggers. If you've played with him, you know how good the instant speed card return is. Den Protector + Deathmist Raptor + instant speed cards (like Dromoka's Command) are insane together. I've had numerous situations where an opponent cast a burn spell at one of my creatures, and in response I flip den protector, bring deathmist raptor onto the battlefield, grab dromoka's command, cast it, cancel the burn spell, and kill one of their creatures by fighting. Talk about card advantage... They cast a burn spell at me and they ended up with the spell cancelled, a creature dead, and I got a creature back...
The ETB-ness of E.Witness makes her easier to abuse in most formats than Den Protector's morph-ness. Blinking EW multiple times is generally going to be better than DP's instant speed effect. EW's lower toughness can also be an upside since she can be clamped.
DP isn't bad, but when I run her in my EDH decks, she's an additional EW, not a replacement.
I had no idea Den Protector was worth even $5 let alone closer to $7. I have a number of these from draft (I have not paid much attention to Standard since KtK) and guess I should unload them while they are worth it.
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The ETB-ness of E.Witness makes her easier to abuse in most formats than Den Protector's morph-ness. Blinking EW multiple times is generally going to be better than DP's instant speed effect. EW's lower toughness can also be an upside since she can be clamped.
DP isn't bad, but when I run her in my EDH decks, she's an additional EW, not a replacement.
Yeah, pretty much exactly this. 5 mana is so much more than 3, and most of the time you don't want to actually cast your creature, you want to cheat it somehow. Den Protector is a "fair" Witness that can't be abused nearly as much. Yes, she's very good in standard, but your "abuse with me" toolbox is similarly limited. You've got Deathmist Raptor, and that's about it. There are a ton of cards that can cheat a Witness into play, or blink her once she's there.
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Yup. People at my LGS are now saving up modern masters instead of springing for packs, so the only new product entering circulation is what is used for our weekly draft, and as prize payouts for FNM, and that's really it. It really doesn't feel like there was enough time between the set releases.
Narset Transcendent 29.16 (-0.83)
Dragonlord Ojutai 28.88 (+8.56)
Dragonlord Atarka 19.00 (0.00)
Deathmist Raptor 17.98 (+0.34)
Sarkhan Unbroken 14.92 0.61)
Dragonlord Silumgar 14.60 (+0.57)
Thunderbreak Regent 9.90 (-0.57)
Dromoka's Command 8.14 (-1.26)
Atarka's Command 7.98 (+0.03)
Dragonlord Dromoka 6.99 (0.00)
Dragon Whisperer 6.49 (-0.28)
Ojutai Exemplars 5.51 (-0.44)
Shaman of Forgotten Ways 5.00 (-0.32)
Sidisi, Undead Vizier 4.99 (-0.10)
Dragonlord Kolaghan 4.75 (+0.24)
Haven of the Spirit Dragon 4.49 (+0.16)
Den Protecter 4.46 (+0.02)
Icefall Regent 4.40 (-0.10)
Shorecrasher Elemental 4.39 (-0.35)
Collected Company 4.18 (-0.08)
Zurgo Bellstriker 3.69 (+0.04)
Secure the Wastes 3.29 (-0.01)
Descent of the Dragons 3.07 (-0.12)
Surrak, the Hunt Caller 2.84 (-0.16)
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit 2.60 (-0.16)
Myth Realized 2.59 (-0.34)
Risen Executioner 2.56 (-0.09)
Ojutai's Command 2.00 (-0.35)
Kolaghan's Command 1.76 (-0.11)
Avatar of the Resolute 1.72 (-0.06)
Assault Formation 1.49 (-0.01)
Stratus Dancer 1.46 (-0.09)
Dragon Tempest 1.43 (-0.10)
Arashin Foremost 1.38 (-0.06)
Hidden Dragonslayer 1.02 (-0.09)
The first week was "Got Narset?"
Then it became "Got Atarka?"
This week it's "Got Ojutai?"
Nobody is buying this set to open. Everybody is so loaded with standard staples from previous sets they would prefer to trade but of course this isn't possible when people don't have the cards. If you go out of your way to mail order some singles you're not going to be trading them away. My LGS tends to sell out of uncommons very quickly indeed. Silumgar's Scorn and Foul-Tongue Invocation are hard to get hold of.
Dragonlord Ojutai 29.99 (+1.11)
Narset Transcendent 28.00 (-1.16)
Dragonlord Atarka 18.28 (-0.72)
Deathmist Raptor 18.04 (+0.06)
Dragonlord Silumgar 14.81 (+0.21)
Sarkhan Unbroken 14.53 (-0.39)
Thunderbreak Regent 9.81 (-0.09)
Dromoka's Command 9.10 (+0.96)
Atarka's Command 7.70 (-0.28)
Dragonlord Dromoka 7.22 (+0.23)
Dragon Whisperer 6.30 (-0.19)
Ojutai Exemplars 5.42 (-0.09)
Shaman of Forgotten Ways 4.99 (-0.01)
Sidisi, Undead Vizier 4.81 (-0.18)
Dragonlord Kolaghan 4.79 (+0.04)
Haven of the Spirit Dragon 4.68 (+0.19)
Den Protecter 4.49 (+0.03)
Icefall Regent 4.43 (+0.03)
Shorecrasher Elemental 4.25 (-0.14)
Collected Company 4.14 (-0.04)
Zurgo Bellstriker 3.63 (-0.06)
Secure the Wastes 3.25 (-0.04)
Descent of the Dragons 3.08 (+0.01)
Surrak, the Hunt Caller 2.75 (-0.09)
Risen Executioner 2.55 (-0.01)
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit 2.52 (-0.08)
Myth Realized 2.48 (-0.11)
Ojutai's Command 1.96 (-0.04)
Kolaghan's Command 1.74 (-0.02)
Avatar of the Resolute 1.69 (-0.03)
Assault Formation 1.47 (-0.02)
Stratus Dancer 1.47 (+0.01)
Dragon Tempest 1.42 (-0.01)
Arashin Foremost 1.37 (-0.01)
Hidden Dragonslayer 1.00 (-0.02)
Silumgar's Scorn 1.00 (0.00)
Top Rares/Mythics:
Dragonlord Ojutai: $30 (+$11)
Narset Transcendent: $20 (-$10)
Deathmist Raptor: $18 (+$2)
Dragonlord Atarka: $15 (-$2)
Sarkhan Unbroken: $12 (-$2)
Dragonlord Silumgar: $12 (+$1)
Thunderbreak Regent: $8 (-$2.50)
Dromoka's Command: $8 (+.50)
Dragonlord Dromoka: $7 (+$1)
Atarka's Command: $7 (+$2)
Dragon Whisperer: $5 (-$1)
Den Protector: $4.50 (+$1)
Haven of the Spirit Dragon: $4.50 (+$1.50)
Ojutai Exemplars: $4 (-$1.50)
Shaman of Forgotten Ways: $4 (-$1)
Collected Company: $4 (-)
Dragonlord Kolaghan: $4 (-)
Shorecrasher Elemental: $3 (-$1)
Sidisi, Undead Vizier: $3 (-$1)
Icefall Regent: $3 (-.50)
Zurgo Bellstriker: $3 (-)
Secure the Wastes: $2.50 (-.50)
Risen Executioner: $2.50 (+.50)
Descent of the Dragons: $2 (-.50)
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit: $2 (-.50)
Surrak the Hunt Caller: $2 (-$1)
Everything else is less than $2.
Total set value:
Mythics: $139 (-$4)
Rares: $60 (-$10)
Uncommon/Common set: $10 (-$1)
Total singles set value: $209 (-$15)
Overall Average box value:
Mythics: $139/15 = $9.27/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $42 (-$1)
Rares: $60/53 = $1.13 x 31.5 rares/box = $35 (-$7)
Uncommon/Common set: $10 x 1.3 sets = $13 (-$1)
Foils: $6 (-$1)
Overall average box value: $96 (-$10)
Looks like reality finally set in for the set, as while certain cards still went up a bit, many of the cards also went down, with several cards falling off the list, and narset dropping nearly as much as a certain dragon lord went up. Overall the mythics were on average fairly stable, the rares took a hit though, which accounted for the majority of the drop in overall average box value. Still though, $96 isn't a bad box value at all, though a lot really depends on the future impact of mtgo redemptions and what modern masters release will do to the gradual supply increase that would normally be present for a set like dragons of tarkir. Will be interesting to see where the value of the set goes into the future, though I suspect we will continue to see some natural settling as I think the majority of the increases we are likely to see have largely already occurred.
Anyhow, I don't know when I will have time to do another update, but as soon as I can, I will. I hope you all enjoy this update and find it informative :).
I don't play Standard much these days. Should I get out of my 2nd Ojutai and Atarka now? I could get a Snapcaster Mage for those two, for goodness sake!
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Currently playing Knight of the Reliquary - Retreat to Coralhelm Combo
BlueControl decks want a finisher that has:- Protection (hexproof or blink).
- Evasion (flying or unblockable).
- Card advantage or at least parity.
which happens to fall a lot on blue abilities and Wizards is happy to oblige in printing some combinations of that in almost every set:
Ætherling: superb protection and evasion, not costing a card for either.
prognostic sphinx: protection costing a card, evasion, card filtering.
pearl lake ancient: superb protection, no evasion, no card advantage.
dragonlord ojutai: protection (may need to cast a card if you attack), evasion, card advantage.
Dragonlord Ojutai has no value outside of standard (except casual dragon lovers) and there is almost a 100% guarantee that both Magic Origin and Battle for Zendikar will have some sort of blue finisher. They may or may not be better than Ojutai. Currently, Ojutai is a better version of prognostic sphinx on almost all front. It's the current best-of-breed. Still, I'd think it is near its apex now.
Dragonlord Ojutai 31.97 (+1.98)
Narset Transcendent 26.00 (+2.00)
Deathmist Raptor 19.43 (+1.39)
Dragonlord Atarka 17.85 (-0.43)
Dragonlord Silumgar 14.19 (-0.62)
Sarkhan Unbroken 13.95 (-0.58)
Thunderbreak Regent 9.50 (-0.31)
Dromoka's Command 8.93 (-0.17)
Atarka's Command 7.74 (+0.04)
Dragonlord Dromoka 7.50 (+0.28)
Dragon Whisperer 6.05 (-0.25)
Ojutai Exemplars 5.10 (-0.32)
Dragonlord Kolaghan 4.99 (0.00)
Shaman of Forgotten Ways 4.84 (+0.03)
Haven of the Spirit Dragon 4.75 (+0.07)
Den Protecter 4.50 (+0.01)
Sidisi, Undead Vizier 4.49 (-0.30)
Icefall Regent 4.24 (-0.19)
Collected Company 4.13 (-0.01)
Shorecrasher Elemental 3.99 (-0.26)
Zurgo Bellstriker 3.60 (-0.03)
Secure the Wastes 3.16 (-0.09)
Descent of the Dragons 3.00 (-0.08)
Risen Executioner 2.64 (+0.09)
Surrak, the Hunt Caller 2.50 (-0.25)
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit 2.46 (-0.06)
Myth Realized 2.23 (-0.25)
Ojutai's Command 1.75 (-0.21)
Avatar of the Resolute 1.63 (-0.06)
Kolaghan's Command 1.57 (-0.17)
Assault Formation 1.46 (-0.01)
Stratus Dancer 1.44 (-0.03)
Dragon Tempest 1.36 (-0.06)
Arashin Foremost 1.27 (-0.10)
Silumgar's Scorn 1.24 (+0.24)
Currently offering 2 non-foil Kolighan's Command for a Date Stamped foil!
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Dragonlord Ojutai 31.57 (-0.40)
Narset Transcendent 25.86 (-0.14)
Deathmist Raptor 20.00 (+0.57)
Dragonlord Atarka 17.1. (-0.74)
Dragonlord Silumgar 14.00 (-0.19)
Sarkhan Unbroken 13.63 (-0.32)
Thunderbreak Regent 9.12 (-0.38)
Dromoka's Command 8.95 (+0.02)
Dragonlord Dromoka 8.08 (+0.58)
Atarka's Command 7.50 (-0.24)
Dragon Whisperer 6.00 (-0.05)
Ojutai Exemplars 5.01 (-0.09)
Dragonlord Kolaghan 5.00 (+0.01)
Den Protecter 4.99 (+0.49)
Haven of the Spirit Dragon 4.92 (+0.17)
Shaman of Forgotten Ways 4.80 (-0.04)
Sidisi, Undead Vizier 4.42 (-0.07)
Collected Company 4.25 (+0.12)
Icefall Regent 4.09 (-0.15)
Shorecrasher Elemental 3.99 (0.00)
Zurgo Bellstriker 3.60 (0.00)
Secure the Wastes 3.14 (-0.02)
Descent of the Dragons 3.00 (0.00)
Risen Executioner 2.66 (+0.02)
Surrak, the Hunt Caller 2.49 (-0.01)
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit 2.41 (-0.05)
Myth Realized 2.12 (-0.11)
Ojutai's Command 1.71 (-0.04)
Avatar of the Resolute 1.59 (-0.04)
Kolaghan's Command 1.58 (+0.01)
Assault Formation 1.43 (-0.03)
Stratus Dancer 1.43 (-0.01)
Dragon Tempest 1.31 (-0.05)
Silumgar's Scorn 1.27 (+0.03)
Arashin Foremost 1.27 (0.00)
Narset might not go lower than $20 and Sarkhan might not go lower than $10.
I think Dragonlord Atarka is probably worth about $10 and will settle a bit. Same with Dragonlord Silumgar which will probably settle a couple of dollars lower.
Thunderbreak Regent will come down because of the other printings.
Everything else not mentioned I think should be fairly stable in the short term and the more playable cards might even start rising as the set stops being opened like we saw from Goblin Rabblemaster in M15 which took a while to get moving but as the rest of the set fell down it rose to pay for the boxes it was coming out of.
Obviously the set has strong value and that will keep people aware of it, but if Magic Origins looks good and Modern Masters 2 draws eyes away it will do nothing but help the single prices go up or hold.
Feel free to bid on my cards here!
Den Protector is up yet another dollar, now above $7. Is this guy really so good? I don't see him as Siege Rhino quality, and thus don't think he can maintain this price. The fact that he is outclassed in all non-standard formats (including EDH) makes me skeptical about this price. Is this a buy, hold, or sell?
EDIT: Didn't see GP Toronto field 25 copies in the Top 8. Crazy!
Check out Odds//Ends - My articles on Quirky Cards and Oddball Builds
Long-time PucaTrade member and sometime author. Send me cards!
Currently playing Knight of the Reliquary - Retreat to Coralhelm Combo
The ETB-ness of E.Witness makes her easier to abuse in most formats than Den Protector's morph-ness. Blinking EW multiple times is generally going to be better than DP's instant speed effect. EW's lower toughness can also be an upside since she can be clamped.
DP isn't bad, but when I run her in my EDH decks, she's an additional EW, not a replacement.
― Anthony Bourdain, Kitchen Confidential
I will always firmly stand by the belief that Magic is a game first and a collectable second.
Yeah, pretty much exactly this. 5 mana is so much more than 3, and most of the time you don't want to actually cast your creature, you want to cheat it somehow. Den Protector is a "fair" Witness that can't be abused nearly as much. Yes, she's very good in standard, but your "abuse with me" toolbox is similarly limited. You've got Deathmist Raptor, and that's about it. There are a ton of cards that can cheat a Witness into play, or blink her once she's there.
Dragonlord Ojutai 32.49 (+0.92)
Narset Transcendent 24.15 (-1.71)
Deathmist Raptor 23.9 (+3.90)
Dragonlord Atarka 16.82 (-0.28)
Dragonlord Silumgar 13.90 (-0.10)
Sarkhan Unbroken 12.89 (-0.73)
Dragonlord Dromoka 10.32 (+2.24)
Thunderbreak Regent 8.82 (-0.30)
Dromoka's Command 8.79 (-0.16)
Den Protecter 7.99 (+3.00)
Atarka's Command 7.25 (-0.25)
Dragon Whisperer 5.59 (-0.41)
Dragonlord Kolaghan 5.02 (-0.02)
Haven of the Spirit Dragon 4.96 (+0.04)
Ojutai Exemplars 4.79 (-0.22)
Shaman of Forgotten Ways 4.67 (-0.13)
Collected Company 4.50 (+0.25)
Sidisi, Undead Vizier 4.00 (-0.42)
Icefall Regent 3.96 (-0.13)
Shorecrasher Elemental 3.99 (0.00)
Zurgo Bellstriker 3.55 (-0.05)
Secure the Wastes 3.12 (-0.02)
Descent of the Dragons 2.98 (-0.02)
Risen Executioner 2.67 (+0.01)
Surrak, the Hunt Caller 2.27 (-0.22)
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit 2.29 (-0.12)
Myth Realized 1.96 (-0.16)
Kolaghan's Command 1.60 (+0.02)
Avatar of the Resolute 1.58 (-0.01)
Ojutai's Command 1.51 (-0.20)
Stratus Dancer 1.44 (+0.01)
Silumgar's Scorn 1.36 (+0.09)
Assault Formation 1.35 (-0.08)
Dragon Tempest 1.25 (-0.06)
Arashin Foremost 1.23 (-0.04)
Starting on Monday, the Tally Threads will be an article on the Front Page. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to ask here, PM me directly, or post on my Helpdesk.