This update I will be doing from a combination of ebay and tcgplayer (minimum of a playset of the card available nd only in NM or better condition) as always based upon the lower end of these values, to get a better idea of the true value of the cards in the set.
Top valued Rares/Mythics:
Ugin the Spirit Dragon: $29
Monastery Mentor: $15
Whisperwood Elemental: $11
Soulfire Grandmaster: $9
Tasigur the Golden Fang: $5
Brutal Hordechief: $4.50
Shaman of the Great Hunt: $4
Warden of the First Tree: $3.50
Crux of Fate: $2.50
Outpost Siege: $2
Torrent Elemental: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Singles Complete Set value:
Mythics: $80
Rares: $22
Uncommon/Common set: $8
Total singles set value: $110
Overall Average Box value:
Mythics: $8/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $36
Rares: .63/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $20
Uncommon/common sets: $8/set x 1.8 sets/box = $14
Foils: $4
Fetchlands: average of 1.5/box = $15
Overall Average Box value: $89
Not really much in the way of overall movement from last time, some down, some up, uncommon/common set's value increase helped to keep the average box value from dropping much at all (down only $1 from my last update, vs being down $4 it could have been). Essentially as commented before, the bonus fetches save the box value from a rather poor fate. The other issue with the set, is that its very topheavy. Don't pull any of the top mythics, and your box will be awful, and the .63 average rare value continues to make me cringe.
Anyhow, enjoy the update, not sure when I will be able to do another next, but will do one when I can.
Not really much in the way of overall movement from last time, some down, some up, uncommon/common set's value increase helped to keep the average box value from dropping much at all (down only $1 from my last update, vs being down $4 it could have been). Essentially as commented before, the bonus fetches save the box value from a rather poor fate. The other issue with the set, is that its very topheavy. Don't pull any of the top mythics, and your box will be awful, and the .63 average rare value continues to make me cringe.
Thanks for the update, Jeff. I agree that the set is ridiculously topheavy, but at least most of those top cards are looking like they have a future. Ugin, Mentor, Soulfire and Tasigur all have Modern/Legacy/EDH applications (at least, potentially). So we're not looking at another Dark Ascension, where post-rotation we had Thalia and ... Thalia.
Completely agree about the cringeworthy average rare value.
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I'm surprised to see Monastery Mentor still ticking downward after showing up as a 4-of in 2 different decks in the top 8 of the legacy GP in Kyoto this weekend.
I'm surprised to see Monastery Mentor still ticking downward after showing up as a 4-of in 2 different decks in the top 8 of the legacy GP in Kyoto this weekend.
It's supply and demand. Standard and old cards drive prices the most. Everything before Return to Ravnica is in limited supply due to the player base explosion of that period.
Legacy can not drive prices for new cards. I would probably expect it to retain some value after rotation though like Voice of Resurgence.
Vintage tourneys are seeing him as a 4-of in some decks. It's a comparatively tiny scene - but maybe it'll breathe more life into that format and others. It seems solid in legacy and EDH too.
I'm surprised to see Monastery Mentor still ticking downward after showing up as a 4-of in 2 different decks in the top 8 of the legacy GP in Kyoto this weekend.
It's not seeing much play in Standard (a 2-of in some Bant Heroic lists); the price has been reflective of playability in older formats right along.
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I think that's understandable - DTK seems to be sucking a lot of the value from standard right now. I think that given the choice, people will be acquiring the new hotnesses - and this index reflects that.
DtK hotness and people looking to Modern Master 2015 is really drying up demand. Unless the card is exploding onto the scene, all of Standard is going down or staying about the same.
I'm surprised to see Monastery Mentor still ticking downward after showing up as a 4-of in 2 different decks in the top 8 of the legacy GP in Kyoto this weekend.
It's not seeing much play in Standard (a 2-of in some Bant Heroic lists); the price has been reflective of playability in older formats right along.
I bought this card to play a 1 of in Heroic. It was decent in one game against RG monsters where I could go wide and get past the big blockers he had.
Didn't buy one for the sideboard but I think I might have to. It seems like great tech to have against Esper dragons, obviously you're going to have to fight over the Crux of Fate wiping out all your monks but that's why there's Disdainful Stroke, Negate and Stubborn Denial. Of course those counterspells also trigger extra tokens which is cool.
This is just my situation but I think it could be good in Jeskai too used in the same way to combat control with counterspells.
The price is high but sometimes you just gotta suck it up. I think Whisperwood, Shaman and Hordechief might not be good enough in the current shifting metagame and could start to drop while Mentor seems like it still has a bit of game.
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Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 33.18 (-0.15)
Monastery Mentor 19.09 (-0.01)
Whisperwood Elemental 14.15 (-0.03)
Soulfire Grand Master 13.25 (0.00)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 7.66 (+0.06)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 7.08 (-0.05)
Brutal Hordechief 5.75 (-0.08)
Warden of the First Tree 4.74 (-0.01)
Crux of Fate 3.44 (-0.05)
Outpost Siege 3.25 (-0.18)
Mastery of the Unseen 3.09 (-0.13)
Torrent Elemental 2.66 (-0.09)
Valorous Stance 2.29 (+0.06)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.68 (-0.08)
Temporal Trespass 1.74 (+0.01)
Frontier Siege 1.43 (-0.03)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.34 (+0.01)
Citadel Siege 1.08 (+0.03)
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 32.99 (-0.19)
Monastery Mentor 18.72 (-0.37)
Whisperwood Elemental 13.99 (-0.16)
Soulfire Grand Master 13.12 (-0.13)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 7.45 (-0.21)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 6.90 (-0.18)
Brutal Hordechief 5.65 (-0.10)
Warden of the First Tree 4.62 (-0.12)
Crux of Fate 3.34 (-0.10)
Outpost Siege 3.00 (-0.25)
Mastery of the Unseen 2.95 (-0.14)
Torrent Elemental 2.60 (-0.06)
Valorous Stance 2.26 (-0.03)
Temporal Trespass 1.70 (-0.04)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.56 (-0.12)
Frontier Siege 1.36 (-0.07)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.34 (0.00)
Citadel Siege 1.06 (-0.02)
Top valued Rares/Mythics:
Ugin the Spirit Dragon: $29
Monastery Mentor: $15
Whisperwood Elemental: $11
Soulfire Grandmaster: $9
Tasigur the Golden Fang: $5
Brutal Hordechief: $4.50
Shaman of the Great Hunt: $4
Warden of the First Tree: $3.50
Crux of Fate: $2.50
Outpost Siege: $2
Torrent Elemental: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Singles Complete Set value:
Mythics: $80
Rares: $22
Uncommon/Common set: $8
Total singles set value: $110
Overall Average Box value:
Mythics: $8/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $36
Rares: .63/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $20
Uncommon/common sets: $8/set x 1.8 sets/box = $14
Foils: $4
Fetchlands: average of 1.5/box = $15
Overall Average Box value: $89
Not really much in the way of overall movement from last time, some down, some up, uncommon/common set's value increase helped to keep the average box value from dropping much at all (down only $1 from my last update, vs being down $4 it could have been). Essentially as commented before, the bonus fetches save the box value from a rather poor fate. The other issue with the set, is that its very topheavy. Don't pull any of the top mythics, and your box will be awful, and the .63 average rare value continues to make me cringe.
Anyhow, enjoy the update, not sure when I will be able to do another next, but will do one when I can.
Thanks for the update, Jeff. I agree that the set is ridiculously topheavy, but at least most of those top cards are looking like they have a future. Ugin, Mentor, Soulfire and Tasigur all have Modern/Legacy/EDH applications (at least, potentially). So we're not looking at another Dark Ascension, where post-rotation we had Thalia and ... Thalia.
Completely agree about the cringeworthy average rare value.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 32.30 (-0.55)
Monastery Mentor 17.77 (-0.65)
Whisperwood Elemental 13.51 (-0.48)
Soulfire Grand Master 12.73 (-0.27)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 7.06 (-0.38)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 6.33 (-0.29)
Brutal Hordechief 5.40 (-0.17)
Warden of the First Tree 4.35 (-0.16)
Crux of Fate 3.34 (-0.05)
Mastery of the Unseen 2.58 (-0.23)
Outpost Siege 2.52 (-0.37)
Torrent Elemental 2.49 (-0.04)
Valorous Stance 2.25 (-0.03)
Temporal Trespass 1.68 (0.00)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.45 (-0.06)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.30 (-0.03)
Frontier Siege 1.25 (-0.07)
Citadel Siege 1.02 (-0.04)
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 32.37 (+0.07)
Monastery Mentor 17.50 (-0.27)
Whisperwood Elemental 13.50 (-0.01)
Soulfire Grand Master 12.61 (-0.12)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 6.99 (-0.07)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 6.18 (-0.15)
Brutal Hordechief 5.27 (-0.13)
Warden of the First Tree 4.27 (-0.80)
Crux of Fate 3.34 (0.00)
Mastery of the Unseen 2.54 (-0.04)
Outpost Siege 2.48 (-0.04)
Torrent Elemental 2.44 (-0.05)
Valorous Stance 2.34 (+0.09)
Temporal Trespass 1.63 (-0.05)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.41 (-0.04)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.29 (-0.01)
Frontier Siege 1.24 (-0.01)
Citadel Siege 1.03 (+0.01)
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 1.02 (0.00)
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It's supply and demand. Standard and old cards drive prices the most. Everything before Return to Ravnica is in limited supply due to the player base explosion of that period.
Legacy can not drive prices for new cards. I would probably expect it to retain some value after rotation though like Voice of Resurgence.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 31.99 (-0.38)
Monastery Mentor 16.76 (-0.74)
Whisperwood Elemental 13.00 (-0.50)
Soulfire Grand Master 12.19 (-0.42)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 6.81 (-0.18)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 5.68 (-0.50)
Brutal Hordechief 5.05 (-0.22)
Warden of the First Tree 4.19 (-0.08)
Crux of Fate 3.30 (-0.04)
Mastery of the Unseen 2.36 (-0.18)
Valorous Stance 2.34 (0.00)
Torrent Elemental 2.32 (-0.12)
Outpost Siege 2.25 (-0.23)
Temporal Trespass 1.56 (-0.07)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.33 (-0.08)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.25 (-0.04)
Frontier Siege 1.14 (-0.10)
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 1.01 (-0.01)
I bought this card to play a 1 of in Heroic. It was decent in one game against RG monsters where I could go wide and get past the big blockers he had.
Didn't buy one for the sideboard but I think I might have to. It seems like great tech to have against Esper dragons, obviously you're going to have to fight over the Crux of Fate wiping out all your monks but that's why there's Disdainful Stroke, Negate and Stubborn Denial. Of course those counterspells also trigger extra tokens which is cool.
This is just my situation but I think it could be good in Jeskai too used in the same way to combat control with counterspells.
The price is high but sometimes you just gotta suck it up. I think Whisperwood, Shaman and Hordechief might not be good enough in the current shifting metagame and could start to drop while Mentor seems like it still has a bit of game.
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 32.06 (+0.07)
Monastery Mentor 16.78 (+0.02)
Whisperwood Elemental 12.86 (-0.14)
Soulfire Grand Master 12.09 (-0.10)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 6.75 (-0.06)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 5.49 (-0.19)
Brutal Hordechief 4.99 (-0.06)
Warden of the First Tree 4.19 (0.00)
Crux of Fate 3.30 (0.00)
Mastery of the Unseen 2.34 (-0.02)
Valorous Stance 2.32 (-0.02)
Torrent Elemental 2.28 (-0.04)
Outpost Siege 2.18 (-0.07)
Temporal Trespass 1.56 (0.00)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.30 (-0.03)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.25 (0.00)
Frontier Siege 1.13 (-0.01)
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 1.04 (+0.03)
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 31.99 (-0.07)
Monastery Mentor 16.16 (-0.62)
Whisperwood Elemental 12.22 (-0.64)
Soulfire Grand Master 11.88 (-0.21)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 6.57 (-0.18)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 5.00 (-0.49)
Brutal Hordechief 4.74 (-0.25)
Warden of the First Tree 4.04 (-0.15)
Crux of Fate 3.29 (-0.01)
Mastery of the Unseen 2.34 (0.00)
Valorous Stance 2.13 (-0.19)
Torrent Elemental 2.08 (-0.20)
Outpost Siege 1.99 (-0.19)
Temporal Trespass 1.54 (-0.02)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.25 (0.00)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.21 (-0.09)
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 1.16 (+0.08)
Frontier Siege 1.04 (-0.09)
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 31.99 (0.00)
Monastery Mentor 16.00 (-0.16)
Whisperwood Elemental 12.00 (-0.22)
Soulfire Grand Master 11.79 (-0.09)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 6.53 (-0.04)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 4.85 (-0.15)
Brutal Hordechief 4.60 (-0.14)
Warden of the First Tree 4.07 (+0.04)
Crux of Fate 3.33 (+0.04)
Valorous Stance 2.37 (+0.24)
Mastery of the Unseen 2.05 (-0.29)
Torrent Elemental 2.03 (-0.05)
Outpost Siege 1.96 (-0.03)
Temporal Trespass 1.52 (-0.02)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.25 (0.00)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.18 (-0.03)
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 1.18 (+0.02)
Frontier Siege 1.04 (0.00)
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 31.52 (-0.47)
Monastery Mentor 15.89 (-0.11)
Whisperwood Elemental 11.63 (-0.37)
Soulfire Grand Master 11.25 (-0.54)
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 6.45 (-0.08)
Brutal Hordechief 4.45 (-0.15)
Shaman of the Great Hunt 4.43 (-0.42)
Warden of the First Tree 4.03 (-0.04)
Crux of Fate 3.32 (-0.01)
Valorous Stance 2.38 (+0.01)
Torrent Elemental 1.96 (-0.07)
Mastery of the Unseen 1.92 (-0.13)
Outpost Siege 1.80 (-0.16)
Temporal Trespass 1.51 (-0.01)
Mardu Strike Leader 1.28 (+0.03)
Flamewake Phoenix 1.17 (-0.01)
Silumgar, the Drifting Death 1.11 (-0.07)
Frontier Siege 1.00 (-0.04)
Starting on Monday, the Tally Threads will be an article on the Front Page. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to ask here, PM me directly, or post on my Helpdesk.