So, I've been trying to break down the math on distribution of cards, and what the 'cost' of a complete set is.
From the numbers I came up with, for every 12 boxes, assuming perfect distribution, you'd have 4.8 of each mythic, and 9.x of each rare (did some rounding). You'll also have 20ish of each uncommon, and 60+ of each common.
So, it requires at LEAST 10 boxes to make a complete playset of each mythic. You'll also have a 2nd playset of each rare in that case. What I don't understand, is I'm seeing people selling complete sets and complete playsets of Fate Reforged on ebay for like $700-800.
Considering the prices of boxes has gone up with most distributors (it's roughly $80 cost for most stores now), that means a complete playset costs at least $800 to put together. Since the rares in this set are lower value, and the real money is in the mythics, that extra playset of rares is worth maybe $200. The extra 2-3 uncommon/common playset you'd get might fetch another $100 if you are lucky. That seems like some pretty low margins, especially once you take out ebay fees. For every grand you put in, you are making like $100, minus the man power spent cracking packs and sorting. Why even bother sell at those prices then? Am I missing something?
There's a bit more to it - there are also occasional fetchlands tucked into the basic land slot that ought to be showing up at a rate of 1-3 per box or so. It isn't a huge swing, but it is an extra $100 or so per case at today's prices. I'm just guessing though.
I sort of realized that after I posted, but it still doesn't seem like enough. The more of them printed, the lower the price will go. So, even if you can clear $10 for each fetchland, on average, that's maybe $20 per box, $120 per case. So, now we're talking about a $200 profit for every 1,000, before labor costs. If you've got friends volunteering to open packs and sort, it seems worth it. I just don't get how so many people are selling complete sets and pre-sales on ebay, with what appears to be such a small profit. Considering pre-sale prices are always inflated, then it seems like there's something missing or no one is really making any money. If right now, while prices are at their highest on average, you can only make a 10-15% margin, that seems like a weak business model.
Firstly you have to remember that shops and such get their boxes for around $75/box. So, assuming it takes 10 boxes to get you a full playset of all the cards from the set, you have to remember you will have all those extra leftovers of rares uncommons/commons/foils/fetchlands, which all add up. When you add up being able to sell the complete set playsets, with the extra playset of rares, plus the extra playsets of common/uncommon sets, plus whatever foils will get opened, plus the fetches, it turns the potential profit if sold quickly into a much more decent number. That said, yes, a lot of sellers of magic the gathering cards on ebay and such tend to work off of low margins, but a large volume of sales in lower margin listings all adds up and can lead to some tidy profit numbers, even if the profit margin itself is lower.
Shops WERE getting them at 70-75, but the cheapest I knew of (southern hobby) just jumped to $80 for this set. Unless this is a regional thing, we were under the impression it was a price increase from Wizards on down (until a few weeks ago, I worked at a LGS, but I'm still friends with the owner and other owners around town).
That was another of my potential scenarios, that some of the ebayers set their prices before they were informed of the price increase. Or, it's just taking the market a little longer to correct so some people are just eating the difference until it does.
But, I guess I have left out foils. That is a fair point. A single foil of the right card brings in another $50+ in those 2 cases worth of boxes. So, now we are talking upwards of $250 for every $1,000-1,200, which is close to a 25% margin, and that's enough to work with.
I get that small margins work for large volumes, but no one is moving tens of thousands of dollars on ebay in a given week just on one set. Not even KidIcarus sells that much of just fate reforged. Plus, the margins have to work enough that you can scale into higher volume without having significantly higher costs. The more you sell, the more manpower you need on the first day or two to actually open and sort the product. One guy can't open and sort 80 boxes in a day, for example. I tried it with just 12 and it took all day to sort the uncommons/commons, heh.
There is benefit to a store in having cards in stock. This includes anyone who is selling lots of cards online. One stop shopping for the customer; confidence that when you show up at FNM the store will have the few extra cards you need/want to complete your deck last minute.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Because we cannot prevent draws in paper Magic we allow IDs. If we could prevent draws we would not have IDs in paper Magic. " Scott Larabee.
If you are selling cards for cost, you could have just held those cards to have your stock. It doesn't increase your inventory. You are doing the opposite in this case. Liquidating your inventory for a lower price.
So, I don't think I follow your point. Unless you mean by selling those at cost, they are increasing sales elsewhere? That makes a little sense, sure. I'm just surprised that at the height of singles prices, when demand far exceeds supply, the profit margin for opening and sorting boxes bought at a wholesale rate is maybe 10-15% after costs. If you buy them for retail, or even slightly above wholesale, you lose money. I've known that's true for basically every set shortly after release, but thought it was a bit higher until then. You'd think it'd be a little more lucrative or not as many people would be doing it.
Well, lets look at a more concrete breakdown then if we are talking about dealing in sets more specifically:
On the overall average you get 4.5 mythics per box, that means that you get 40.5 mythics per 9 boxes (or 4 sets worth on the overall average when large amounts of boxes are opened), to be safe though, we can say 10 boxes would be the best way to calculate from.
So, 10 boxes per 4 complete sets (4x of each mythic/rare/uncommon/common).
In addition to that though, out of every 10 boxes you also get an additional playset of each non-mythic (4x of each rare/uncommon/common).
In addition to that you also get another 2 complete playsets of the uncommons/commons (8x of each uncommon/common).
In addition to that you also get 10 boxes worth of foils.
In addition to that you also get presumably at least 1 fetchland per box (so 10 total)?
Now then, based upon current going ebay rates (cheapest buy it nows available for each category:
4 complete sets (mythics/rares/uncommon/common): $650
4 complete sets (no mythics) (rares/uncommon/common): $280
8 complete sets of uncommon/commons: $65
10 boxes of foils: $50 (minimum)
10 fetches: $120
Total for 10 boxes (not counting leftover cards): $1165
Cost for 10 boxes (assuming the cost has increased to $80/box straight from wizards): $800
Overall profit margin: 45%
Subtracting for ebay/paypal fees, shipping costs, and costs to pay helpers to open the boxes and put the sets together....
You end up at a final profit margin of about 25% or about $200 per 10 boxes (not counting the 1 box worth of extras you would get from each 10 box batch to make sure you are getting the complete sets you are selling).
It might not seem like much, but if you look at it from the perspective of 100 boxes, then that is a tidy $2,000 profit after all costs and expenses.
Unless you mean by selling those at cost, they are increasing sales elsewhere?
Yes, I am saying that by selling some cards at or near cost, a store owner may increase sales of other items (or business).
Think of the TCG player optimizer. If one store has all the items a particular customer wants, then the optimization is likely to direct the buyer to that store (rather than directing them to pay shipping to multiple stores).
If a LGS has lots of cards available, some customers are more likely to go there. I have definitely made my choice about where to play FNM based upon which store had a couple of cards I wanted to purchase. So, having inventory meant that I paid an entry fee. When someone goes to a store to play FNM, they might also buy food, or sleeves, or dice, etc.
So anyway, a store may get value from cards even if they are not selling them at a big markup.
Well, lets look at a more concrete breakdown then if we are talking about dealing in sets more specifically:
On the overall average you get 4.5 mythics per box, that means that you get 40.5 mythics per 9 boxes (or 4 sets worth on the overall average when large amounts of boxes are opened), to be safe though, we can say 10 boxes would be the best way to calculate from.
So, 10 boxes per 4 complete sets (4x of each mythic/rare/uncommon/common).
In addition to that though, out of every 10 boxes you also get an additional playset of each non-mythic (4x of each rare/uncommon/common).
In addition to that you also get another 2 complete playsets of the uncommons/commons (8x of each uncommon/common).
In addition to that you also get 10 boxes worth of foils.
In addition to that you also get presumably at least 1 fetchland per box (so 10 total)?
Now then, based upon current going ebay rates (cheapest buy it nows available for each category:
4 complete sets (mythics/rares/uncommon/common): $650
4 complete sets (no mythics) (rares/uncommon/common): $280
8 complete sets of uncommon/commons: $65
10 boxes of foils: $50 (minimum)
10 fetches: $120
Total for 10 boxes (not counting leftover cards): $1165
Cost for 10 boxes (assuming the cost has increased to $80/box straight from wizards): $800
Overall profit margin: 45%
Subtracting for ebay/paypal fees, shipping costs, and costs to pay helpers to open the boxes and put the sets together....
You end up at a final profit margin of about 25% or about $200 per 10 boxes (not counting the 1 box worth of extras you would get from each 10 box batch to make sure you are getting the complete sets you are selling).
It might not seem like much, but if you look at it from the perspective of 100 boxes, then that is a tidy $2,000 profit after all costs and expenses.
The thing to note there is that this is based on the current, non-released price. This goes down abruptly as soon as the set is released. Within 2 weeks of release, any profit is probably gone.
Mmm $200 per set (based on 800 for a playset) is a pretty high price, even for a new set. Also, sets via MOL cards tend to be cheaper so those sellers may be banking on these as well. For a consumer interested in buying a playset of a current set, purchase via MOL and redemption is usually the cheapest option.
Well, lets look at a more concrete breakdown then if we are talking about dealing in sets more specifically:
Couple clarifications/questions with the numbers (mine included).
1) Looks like boxes are just under $78 through southern hobby, so I was slightly high, straight from wizards might be $75 for however many you are allocated. But, between some distributors being $80+, I guess 80 is a good round number for calculations.
2) I came up with 4.8 of each mythic (so 57-58 total mythics) and about 10 of each rare in 12 boxes. Close enough, but how did you calculate 4.5 mythics per box if 1 out of 9 is a mythic. 36/9 = 4, That should be 4 per box, or what did I do wrong?
Other then that, thank you. Your numbers check out, been analyzing them over and over, while going back and re-checking mine. Can't see where either of us messed up yet, other then me not adding in the foils. Which is bugging me, since I came out with a lower overall number. Oh, and it should be at least 15 fetches per 10 boxes, maybe even 30, but unlikely. However, that just adds effectively the same value you had down for foils that I wasn't factoring in.
Mmm $200 per set (based on 800 for a playset) is a pretty high price, even for a new set. Also, sets via MOL cards tend to be cheaper so those sellers may be banking on these as well. For a consumer interested in buying a playset of a current set, purchase via MOL and redemption is usually the cheapest option.
It's $650ish for a complete playset, and redemption doesn't start for another month or two. Many people need the cards to play tournaments during that time. You can't compare the price of paper cards, before release, with the price of cards weeks, or months, down the line via redemption. You'd have to compare the price of paper cards at the time redemption goes live, and it always drops right then as well. You can likely buy a playset (4x) of every card in this set for 400-500 by the time redemption is live.
Well, lets look at a more concrete breakdown then if we are talking about dealing in sets more specifically:
Couple clarifications/questions with the numbers (mine included).
1) Looks like boxes are just under $78 through southern hobby, so I was slightly high, straight from wizards might be $75 for however many you are allocated. But, between some distributors being $80+, I guess 80 is a good round number for calculations.
2) I came up with 4.8 of each mythic (so 57-58 total mythics) and about 10 of each rare in 12 boxes. Close enough, but how did you calculate 4.5 mythics per box if 1 out of 9 is a mythic. 36/9 = 4, That should be 4 per box, or what did I do wrong?
Other then that, thank you. Your numbers check out, been analyzing them over and over, while going back and re-checking mine. Can't see where either of us messed up yet, other then me not adding in the foils. Which is bugging me, since I came out with a lower overall number. Oh, and it should be at least 15 fetches per 10 boxes, maybe even 30, but unlikely. However, that just adds effectively the same value you had down for foils that I wasn't factoring in.
Mmm $200 per set (based on 800 for a playset) is a pretty high price, even for a new set. Also, sets via MOL cards tend to be cheaper so those sellers may be banking on these as well. For a consumer interested in buying a playset of a current set, purchase via MOL and redemption is usually the cheapest option.
It's $650ish for a complete playset, and redemption doesn't start for another month or two. Many people need the cards to play tournaments during that time. You can't compare the price of paper cards, before release, with the price of cards weeks, or months, down the line via redemption. You'd have to compare the price of paper cards at the time redemption goes live, and it always drops right then as well. You can likely buy a playset (4x) of every card in this set for 400-500 by the time redemption is live.
To the previous poster, the OP was looking at the current (as in pre-sales) price of the sets, not the post-release price. Though its true that once the set is released the value will drop as it always tends to do.
Now then for enzie's questions:
1. Yeah, I figured since you were talking about a higher number, I would err on the side of a higher number and just go with $80, as its been over 2 years since I was last dealing with wizards directly with the shop.
2. The mythics come one in every 8 packs, not one in every 9 packs, so that's where the 4.5 comes in. as 36/8 = 4.5 per box.
3. As for the fetches, I'm not 100% sure on exactly how the distribution will be there (if we know for certain what it will be for this set specifically, then feel free to point me in the direction of that information. But I was erring on the lower side figuring that with 10 basic lands, and 10 common lands presumably in with the slot the fetchlands would come in, that the fetchlands would likely only show up 1 or possibly 2 per box, which 1.5 is probably about right but I just chose to go with one to show what the presumed lower end of the value spectrum would be. Obviously adding another $5 per box from the extra fetches plus whatever the remaining extra box worth of cards from my 10-box example would get you would just simply tack onto the numbers I gave, but the numbers I gave at least give you a reasonable lower end to the currently expected pre-sales value for selling sets of cards et all. Anyhow, glad my information could help :).
I guess it's not concrete info, but I was using Ben Bleweiss's article and his knowledge of their printing process. He theorized it's a likely a separate 121 card sheet for the land slot, and if the fetches appear once per sheet, it ends up being 1.5 per box. If they appear twice, it's 3 per box.
I guess it's not concrete info, but I was using Ben Bleweiss's article and his knowledge of their printing process. He theorized it's a likely a separate 121 card sheet for the land slot, and if the fetches appear once per sheet, it ends up being 1.5 per box. If they appear twice, it's 3 per box.
It's probably 1.5 per box. I doubt they'll put as many fetches per box into this set as they did in KTK.
Unless you mean by selling those at cost, they are increasing sales elsewhere?
Yes, I am saying that by selling some cards at or near cost, a store owner may increase sales of other items (or business).
Think of the TCG player optimizer. If one store has all the items a particular customer wants, then the optimization is likely to direct the buyer to that store (rather than directing them to pay shipping to multiple stores).
If a LGS has lots of cards available, some customers are more likely to go there. I have definitely made my choice about where to play FNM based upon which store had a couple of cards I wanted to purchase. So, having inventory meant that I paid an entry fee. When someone goes to a store to play FNM, they might also buy food, or sleeves, or dice, etc.
So anyway, a store may get value from cards even if they are not selling them at a big markup.
I can attest to this. My local game store seems fairly large (FNMs regularly run 50-80 people) but i swear every time I try and buy a card from them they are out or only have 1 and I don't think I've ever been able to pick up any uncommon that is playable. Most of the time I don't even try anymore and just buy a playset online. I might only spend 20-30 a month on singles in a given month but I cant be the only one who goes there that has that same issue.
I can attest to this. My local game store seems fairly large (FNMs regularly run 50-80 people) but i swear every time I try and buy a card from them they are out or only have 1 and I don't think I've ever been able to pick up any uncommon that is playable. Most of the time I don't even try anymore and just buy a playset online. I might only spend 20-30 a month on singles in a given month but I cant be the only one who goes there that has that same issue.
That's sort of the opposite of what I am saying. Is there a different game store in the area that stocks more cards? If so, I would expect (all other things being equal) that some players, those who are likely to want to buy cards) to migrate to the better stocked store.
But, what you say does bring up another point. Players are generally willing to pay a premium for the convenience of picking up the cards at their LGS when they need them. It is a bother to figure out what card you want a week in advance (which is what you need to do to be sure you can order them online and receive them in time to play them).
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Because we cannot prevent draws in paper Magic we allow IDs. If we could prevent draws we would not have IDs in paper Magic. " Scott Larabee.
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
From the numbers I came up with, for every 12 boxes, assuming perfect distribution, you'd have 4.8 of each mythic, and 9.x of each rare (did some rounding). You'll also have 20ish of each uncommon, and 60+ of each common.
So, it requires at LEAST 10 boxes to make a complete playset of each mythic. You'll also have a 2nd playset of each rare in that case. What I don't understand, is I'm seeing people selling complete sets and complete playsets of Fate Reforged on ebay for like $700-800.
Considering the prices of boxes has gone up with most distributors (it's roughly $80 cost for most stores now), that means a complete playset costs at least $800 to put together. Since the rares in this set are lower value, and the real money is in the mythics, that extra playset of rares is worth maybe $200. The extra 2-3 uncommon/common playset you'd get might fetch another $100 if you are lucky. That seems like some pretty low margins, especially once you take out ebay fees. For every grand you put in, you are making like $100, minus the man power spent cracking packs and sorting. Why even bother sell at those prices then? Am I missing something?
That was another of my potential scenarios, that some of the ebayers set their prices before they were informed of the price increase. Or, it's just taking the market a little longer to correct so some people are just eating the difference until it does.
But, I guess I have left out foils. That is a fair point. A single foil of the right card brings in another $50+ in those 2 cases worth of boxes. So, now we are talking upwards of $250 for every $1,000-1,200, which is close to a 25% margin, and that's enough to work with.
I get that small margins work for large volumes, but no one is moving tens of thousands of dollars on ebay in a given week just on one set. Not even KidIcarus sells that much of just fate reforged. Plus, the margins have to work enough that you can scale into higher volume without having significantly higher costs. The more you sell, the more manpower you need on the first day or two to actually open and sort the product. One guy can't open and sort 80 boxes in a day, for example. I tried it with just 12 and it took all day to sort the uncommons/commons, heh.
So, I don't think I follow your point. Unless you mean by selling those at cost, they are increasing sales elsewhere? That makes a little sense, sure. I'm just surprised that at the height of singles prices, when demand far exceeds supply, the profit margin for opening and sorting boxes bought at a wholesale rate is maybe 10-15% after costs. If you buy them for retail, or even slightly above wholesale, you lose money. I've known that's true for basically every set shortly after release, but thought it was a bit higher until then. You'd think it'd be a little more lucrative or not as many people would be doing it.
On the overall average you get 4.5 mythics per box, that means that you get 40.5 mythics per 9 boxes (or 4 sets worth on the overall average when large amounts of boxes are opened), to be safe though, we can say 10 boxes would be the best way to calculate from.
So, 10 boxes per 4 complete sets (4x of each mythic/rare/uncommon/common).
In addition to that though, out of every 10 boxes you also get an additional playset of each non-mythic (4x of each rare/uncommon/common).
In addition to that you also get another 2 complete playsets of the uncommons/commons (8x of each uncommon/common).
In addition to that you also get 10 boxes worth of foils.
In addition to that you also get presumably at least 1 fetchland per box (so 10 total)?
Now then, based upon current going ebay rates (cheapest buy it nows available for each category:
4 complete sets (mythics/rares/uncommon/common): $650
4 complete sets (no mythics) (rares/uncommon/common): $280
8 complete sets of uncommon/commons: $65
10 boxes of foils: $50 (minimum)
10 fetches: $120
Total for 10 boxes (not counting leftover cards): $1165
Cost for 10 boxes (assuming the cost has increased to $80/box straight from wizards): $800
Overall profit margin: 45%
Subtracting for ebay/paypal fees, shipping costs, and costs to pay helpers to open the boxes and put the sets together....
You end up at a final profit margin of about 25% or about $200 per 10 boxes (not counting the 1 box worth of extras you would get from each 10 box batch to make sure you are getting the complete sets you are selling).
It might not seem like much, but if you look at it from the perspective of 100 boxes, then that is a tidy $2,000 profit after all costs and expenses.
Yes, I am saying that by selling some cards at or near cost, a store owner may increase sales of other items (or business).
Think of the TCG player optimizer. If one store has all the items a particular customer wants, then the optimization is likely to direct the buyer to that store (rather than directing them to pay shipping to multiple stores).
If a LGS has lots of cards available, some customers are more likely to go there. I have definitely made my choice about where to play FNM based upon which store had a couple of cards I wanted to purchase. So, having inventory meant that I paid an entry fee. When someone goes to a store to play FNM, they might also buy food, or sleeves, or dice, etc.
So anyway, a store may get value from cards even if they are not selling them at a big markup.
The thing to note there is that this is based on the current, non-released price. This goes down abruptly as soon as the set is released. Within 2 weeks of release, any profit is probably gone.
Couple clarifications/questions with the numbers (mine included).
1) Looks like boxes are just under $78 through southern hobby, so I was slightly high, straight from wizards might be $75 for however many you are allocated. But, between some distributors being $80+, I guess 80 is a good round number for calculations.
2) I came up with 4.8 of each mythic (so 57-58 total mythics) and about 10 of each rare in 12 boxes. Close enough, but how did you calculate 4.5 mythics per box if 1 out of 9 is a mythic. 36/9 = 4, That should be 4 per box, or what did I do wrong?
Other then that, thank you. Your numbers check out, been analyzing them over and over, while going back and re-checking mine. Can't see where either of us messed up yet, other then me not adding in the foils. Which is bugging me, since I came out with a lower overall number. Oh, and it should be at least 15 fetches per 10 boxes, maybe even 30, but unlikely. However, that just adds effectively the same value you had down for foils that I wasn't factoring in.
It's $650ish for a complete playset, and redemption doesn't start for another month or two. Many people need the cards to play tournaments during that time. You can't compare the price of paper cards, before release, with the price of cards weeks, or months, down the line via redemption. You'd have to compare the price of paper cards at the time redemption goes live, and it always drops right then as well. You can likely buy a playset (4x) of every card in this set for 400-500 by the time redemption is live.
To the previous poster, the OP was looking at the current (as in pre-sales) price of the sets, not the post-release price. Though its true that once the set is released the value will drop as it always tends to do.
Now then for enzie's questions:
1. Yeah, I figured since you were talking about a higher number, I would err on the side of a higher number and just go with $80, as its been over 2 years since I was last dealing with wizards directly with the shop.
2. The mythics come one in every 8 packs, not one in every 9 packs, so that's where the 4.5 comes in. as 36/8 = 4.5 per box.
3. As for the fetches, I'm not 100% sure on exactly how the distribution will be there (if we know for certain what it will be for this set specifically, then feel free to point me in the direction of that information. But I was erring on the lower side figuring that with 10 basic lands, and 10 common lands presumably in with the slot the fetchlands would come in, that the fetchlands would likely only show up 1 or possibly 2 per box, which 1.5 is probably about right but I just chose to go with one to show what the presumed lower end of the value spectrum would be. Obviously adding another $5 per box from the extra fetches plus whatever the remaining extra box worth of cards from my 10-box example would get you would just simply tack onto the numbers I gave, but the numbers I gave at least give you a reasonable lower end to the currently expected pre-sales value for selling sets of cards et all. Anyhow, glad my information could help :).
It's probably 1.5 per box. I doubt they'll put as many fetches per box into this set as they did in KTK.
I can attest to this. My local game store seems fairly large (FNMs regularly run 50-80 people) but i swear every time I try and buy a card from them they are out or only have 1 and I don't think I've ever been able to pick up any uncommon that is playable. Most of the time I don't even try anymore and just buy a playset online. I might only spend 20-30 a month on singles in a given month but I cant be the only one who goes there that has that same issue.
But, what you say does bring up another point. Players are generally willing to pay a premium for the convenience of picking up the cards at their LGS when they need them. It is a bother to figure out what card you want a week in advance (which is what you need to do to be sure you can order them online and receive them in time to play them).