Power Nine prices have risen considerably in the last few months. Although many explanations have been offered for this, I think we're witnessing a period in which the economics of magic are changing dramatically in light of recent reprints.
I think the recent gains to power and other reserve list cards are a flight to safety. "Flight to safety" is basically a concept from the financial world in which lack of faith in one holding, causes people to move their money to safer holdings. For example if people think the economy is going down, they will buy gold and treasury bills and will avoid riskier investments.
Almost every major staple has now been reprinted. Thoughtseize, tarmogoyf, Liliana (ptq), Bob, Clique, Vial, the list goes on. The only major staples that have not yet been reprinted are the ones too recently printed to warrant a reprint. These reprints put downward pressure on the prices of these cards. I think in the short term, players having been moving their cards or purchasing more reserve list cards as part of a "flight to safety"
In addition, players who might otherwise have spent money picking up extra playsets might pick up a piece of power instead causing the recent dramatic rise in Vintage prices.
At this point, I'll just come out and say what most of us already know. Now is not a period in which you want to be holding cards that will be reprinted (unless you want to use them in the near future).
Magic is headed towards a direction in which the cheapest way to go is to hold off for as long as possible. The long term trend of ANY non-reserve list card is down.
Is wizards going to reprint Tarmogoyf again? Yes, if not in MM2, then in some future product.
What about Bob, Clique, and Thoughtseize, fetches. Will wizards reprint them again? Yes. That is now what people expect.
If they will be reprinted again in the future, the best thing to do, assuming you don't need the cards right away is to hold off from buying the cards now.
In other words, hold onto ONLY the cards you need or expect to use, and sell everything else.
There is little point in holding a collection of cards that will only be reprinted in short order. Buy selling now, I can get the most value for my cards. By buying later, I can pick up the staples I need when they're at their cheapest (having just been reprinted)
Even players who say they will still hold onto their decks as the cards drop in value might sell additional cards they don't need. I dont see myself selling my decks, but I will certainly be selling my additional cards outside my decks.
The only exception to this general trend are reserve list cards. All the money spent by speculators and collectors has to go somewhere. And with the recent price jumps to Power 9, it looks like the money went into Vintage.
I think if theres one lesson to take from Econ its that strange things happen when we know general price trends.
If we absolutely know that something will go down in the future, it makes sense to hold off for as long as possible. The longer you hold off, the more you can buy when you have to buy it.
Conversely, if we absolutely know something will go up in the future, it makes sense to buy now; it's only going to get more expensive later.
Rising Vintage prices will probably kick the sitting money on the sidelines. Have you ever wanted to own a black lotus? What about a mox sapphire? At the rate they're rising if you ever want a prayer in hell of owning one, buy now before their prices go too high. It's funny that at times, rising prices can actually spur demand.
In light of Wizards recent reprint policy, I predict that Reserve list cards, particularly vintage are well positioned to see good price gains in 2015. With purchasing in modern being dampened by a spate of new reprints, more money will shift into Vintage and reserve list cards in the coming months.
I totally agree, and was already aggressively trading my Modern stuff into reserved stuff long before MM2 was announced. The only point I disagree on is the emphasis on Vintage format cards. I think any reserved card with collectible and/or playable value is a good target, including cards whose demand arises primarily from Legacy and EDH.
I totally agree, and was already aggressively trading my Modern stuff into reserved stuff long before MM2 was announced. The only point I disagree on is the emphasis on Vintage format cards. I think any reserved card with collectible and/or playable value is a good target, including cards whose demand arises primarily from Legacy and EDH.
The reason I shied away a little from Dual lands and Legacy based reserve list cards is because SCG's continued support for legacy is a little uncertain. That uncertainty could affect the future growth of dual prices. If SCG instead put out a statement like "we would like to emphatically reaffirm our continued support for the legacy format in our Tournament series. Legacy is an important part of magic, and we will be maintaining support for it in the foreseeable future", that would probably cause duals and other legacy staples to rise strongly next year.
On the other trading site I have seen people comment on how it's looking like the Vintage price hike may prove to be false. Before SCG's was usually very low to sold out of power. They now have 11 Black Lotus in stock/14 Ancestral Recalls etc. While the price will end up being up, the price jump is probably not going to stick.
But I do agree with your statement. I think people have incentive to move expensive cards they aren't using into cards on the reserve list or cash.
On the other trading site I have seen people comment on how it's looking like the Vintage price hike may prove to be false. Before SCG's was usually very low to sold out of power. They now have 11 Black Lotus in stock/14 Ancestral Recalls etc. While the price will end up being up, the price jump is probably not going to stick.
But I do agree with your statement. I think people have incentive to move expensive cards they aren't using into cards on the reserve list or cash.
I agree with you there that it does look interesting how many lotuses SCG now has in their collection.
If it's one thing we know its that sucking up the supply is NOT the same thing as creating new demand for the cards.
But I think that's really more of a problem with jank rare cards. What I mean by that is suppose someone buys up all the Alurens. That doesn't mean that Alurens are suddenly used in legacy, all you've got are more expensive Alurens now, but nobody is buying. You've cornered a market which no one ever visits.
But here we have two differences. 1. It's SCG has a plethora of Lotuses (i last saw 8 in MP selling @4k) 2. SCG has a buylist.
So why is that different? Well in one sense, if the stability of SCG's buylist is to be believed, it means that NM Black Lotus has an absolute floor of 4500 (or however much they are buying for) It means that even if you spend 4500 for a piece of cardboard, you can always get that money back. That 4500 figure will also affect lesser conditions. It's not like an SP lotus is going to be worth 1k when the NM lotuses are 4.5k. If so, someone will buy up all the SP lotuses.
That buylist effectively sets a range which hovers around that 4500 buylist price.
You're right in that its not like people are now clamoring to buy 5000 dollar lotuses. But that buylist is a powerful market force in its own right.
It means that if you were to find a real NM lotus elsewhere selling for 3k, you would buy it up immediately!
That market behavior you exhibited based on your rational economic self interest, so influenced by the buylist will percolate throughout the magic market at large.
In time, it will help set a price memory around that range. Furthermore, it means that the purchase of a Lotus has market risk in the range of 4.5k.
For example, if I find an SP lotus for 2k. I would buy it because SCG is paying 4.5k for a NM. In fact, at 3k, I would still feel I'm not taking much risk. A more enterprising speculator might purchase an SP lotus for 4k without feeling bad about it.
So you're right in that there might be some skepticism with the recent vintage price hike. But that buylist price, by (SCG) a party reputable that people feel safe buying from, also warps your ordinary market conditions.
Starcity buylist is hype. What they 'say' they will pay and what they actually pay is two different things.
For sure for lower price items they will pay what their buylist is at. But for higher priced cards, they will NEVER pay anywhere near what they list. This isn't conjecture, it's actual fact. We 'tested' SCG by bringing them NM Power 9 (Graded) and they refused to pay anywhere near their prices. They were offering closer to 66%
So if you think there is a magical floor because SCG sets one, you are wrong. They are making a market to maximize their profits with a bit of duplicity. They know they're the market leader so they can do this. Offer 4-5K for a lotus, then when someone brings them one, offer them $2500-3K. If the person sells, great for them, they remark it up to $7K. If the person walks, they don't care. The 'buylist' is win win win for them (as it should be).
Starcity buylist is hype. What they 'say' they will pay and what they actually pay is two different things.
For sure for lower price items they will pay what their buylist is at. But for higher priced cards, they will NEVER pay anywhere near what they list. This isn't conjecture, it's actual fact. We 'tested' SCG by bringing them NM Power 9 (Graded) and they refused to pay anywhere near their prices. They were offering closer to 66%
So if you think there is a magical floor because SCG sets one, you are wrong. They are making a market to maximize their profits with a bit of duplicity. They know they're the market leader so they can do this. Offer 4-5K for a lotus, then when someone brings them one, offer them $2500-3K. If the person sells, great for them, they remark it up to $7K. If the person walks, they don't care. The 'buylist' is win win win for them (as it should be).
Starcity buylist is hype. What they 'say' they will pay and what they actually pay is two different things.
For sure for lower price items they will pay what their buylist is at. But for higher priced cards, they will NEVER pay anywhere near what they list. This isn't conjecture, it's actual fact. We 'tested' SCG by bringing them NM Power 9 (Graded) and they refused to pay anywhere near their prices. They were offering closer to 66%
So if you think there is a magical floor because SCG sets one, you are wrong. They are making a market to maximize their profits with a bit of duplicity. They know they're the market leader so they can do this. Offer 4-5K for a lotus, then when someone brings them one, offer them $2500-3K. If the person sells, great for them, they remark it up to $7K. If the person walks, they don't care. The 'buylist' is win win win for them (as it should be).
I'm a little confused by this. Do you mean sixty-six percent of their buy list price, or sixty-six percent of their purchase price?
I cannot see dual land prices going down even if Legacy support by SCG completely stops [which I highly doubt]. They might dip a little initially but I predict they would then start rising steadily again.
1. Dual lands are on the reserved list [never to be printed again]
2. Extremely good cards [use in casual]
3. Collectable.
4. Getting fewer and fewer
There is a chance that in the future, they will print a set of duals coming real close to the real deal. They won't reprint the originals, but nothing is stopping them from eventually printing a set of dual lands that do not count as an island or swamp but no other downside. Or one that 'counts as a basic land' (but not an island or swamp).
These would be a poor substitute for the original duals, as they aren't fetchable. They would have very little impact on the ABUR duals.
Legacy will fade away. Maybe tomorrow, maybe in 10 years, maybe somewhere in between, but it will happen. When it happens, legacy-only cards will start to fall in price.
I expect a similar fate for most Vintage cards, except even sooner, since Vintage is much less popular than Legacy. The expection is P9 and a few other treasure-like cards from early Magic. Their price behavior could be just about anything.
People have been saying that about Vintage for over a decade now. And prices are higher than ever. I believe Legacy will follow a similar trend. Legacy staples are on average less collectible, but more playable, which will balance them out. Only time will tell, but I really don't see Vintage/Legacy cards crashing in price until the game dies.
As much as people 'hope and pray' that P9 prices drop, they won't. They're blue chips, if you are thinking of buying them, buy them now, the longer you wait the more expensive they will get.
Sure you can pick up beat to crap P9, but the primo stuff is just 'going away'. I know. It was hard, but I had to just bite the bullet and buy the primo graded stuff (so I'm biased of course!). This is not a 'quick flip', in 5-10 years, these prices will look stupid cheap.
As much as people 'hope and pray' that P9 prices drop, they won't. They're blue chips, if you are thinking of buying them, buy them now, the longer you wait the more expensive they will get.
Sure you can pick up beat to crap P9, but the primo stuff is just 'going away'. I know. It was hard, but I had to just bite the bullet and buy the primo graded stuff (so I'm biased of course!). This is not a 'quick flip', in 5-10 years, these prices will look stupid cheap.
U bought graded power or ungraded power? I was wondering if it be worth it to try picking up say sp-sp minus power to have the potential to play vintage going forward. Especially before prices get too crazy like they seem theyre heading. Could you lend any thought or ur opinion on this?
You have any proof of this because this, to me, just looks like you're trying to slander SCG. They may not want graded cards either as graded cards are harder to move typically as it is a very niche market when you're talking about graded cards. When I see graded cards on SCG I see them there a year later for the exact same card that hasn't moved yet and is just taking up space. Reason being people don't want cards in slabs generally at a markup to already insane prices.
The vintage price hike is staying. Power 9 are the most iconic cards in the game. Lotus dropping? Not a chance. People are willing to pay 4K+ or more on a NM lotus when a year ago it was nowhere near that price. Whenever I have sold to SCG they have honored their buylist prices including the time I buylisted them blazing shoals right before they got banned in modern after PT Belcher where they received the cards after they had been banned and still honored their buylist price whereas other sites have said "sorry we aren't going to pay you that much since the price dropped" the most recent example of this being onslaught fetchlands I heard of many people having their buylists not honored.
As for NM power going away, well NM power has been going away for a long, long time. Inevitably the people holding NM power will have to sell at some point due to needing the money for way more important things than pieces of cardboard that have no intrinsic value of any kind. The odds of a NM piece of power lying around in someones collection for the rest of their lives is pretty small. Eventually price factor creeps in. Let's say NM alpha lotuses commanded a retail price of 100 grand. Eventually people will sell a card on the principle that they bought it for so much less and that it's worth too much for them to hold onto. I know I would sell my unlimited beat to hell lotus in a second if I could get 5 grand for it/way more than I paid for it. Same is true of many other people. So to say that once a NM lotus will always be off the market is simply not true because people like money. A lot.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Yawgmoth," Freyalise whispered as she set the bomb, "now you will pay for your treachery."
Thanks OP, good post. IMO you have a good understanding of supply and demand forces and how they work on the MTG singles market.
I agree with your conclusions for the most part also. Harvesting value from the secondary market (via reprinting) will continue and escalate. They can, so they will. Period!
IMO, I wouldn't buy anything ungraded. 1) It's security. It's alot of cash, and as 'honest' and dependable stores can be, I need a 3rd party verification that the money I spend is worth it. I bought BGS Graded power (Beta Lotus was the star!) and if I'm dropping that much money, I want top shelf stuff.
I wouldn't even consider SP stuff unless it was misgraded or you know for a fact it will grade out nicely. The difference in price between SP and NM is massive (by massive I mean, 50% massive). The higher up in price you go the higher the difference (as it should be).
Otoh, if you're looking to play with them, then buy whatever strikes your fancy. But don't be upset a few years down the road when the SP stuff is basically worthless compared to graded/NM stuff. If you don't believe me, check out ebay. Graded Beta Lotus are flying off the shelves. Yet the ungraded, beat up stuff is just sitting forever. Right now, I think that the graded stuff is actually 'cheap/good value' compared to the ungraded stuff (this will change! or it already has, I'm not in the know of all the behind the scenes P9 changes).
Also, I have no reason to slander SCG. I get nothing out of it, in fact, it would hurt me to say anything about them (they are the price setters, so they're upping the price of my cards!). It's a fact. (Also check my posts, I think I left glowing praise for SCG before, I order from them because I need cards now and I'm fine paying for them). I presented them with GRADED Power 9 to sell and they offered me lowball prices. When I asked about the buylist prices, they said, 'take it or leave it.' (In nicer words of course).
In my opinion the choice between NM power and SP power isn't so clear cut.
The analysis depends on how much more you are paying for Nice graded power vs the SP version.
Lets start with the ridiculous scenario, because it's instructive.
Suppose SP lotus is $500. Suppose the NM Lotus is $5000.
Obviously buy the SP lotus. The SP lotus is worth well in excess of $500 and you will likely make an 800+% return immediately. For the $5000 NM lotus to make an 800% return, it would need to rise to $40,000. That's not happening.
Now that we are done with the ridiculous scenario, lets move onto a more realistic dilemma.
SP Lotus $3500 vs NM Lotus BGS 8 $5000.
Which one should you buy? This is more iffy. Even if the NM BGS 8 lotus is nice, its a whopping 42.85% more expensive than the SP lotus.
The NM might go up faster. But as an investment, it has to!
If the SP lotus rises in price by $500 and the NM lotus rises in price by $500, then obviously the SP Lotus was the superior investment.
That works out to a 14.2% gain vs a 10% gain. The 5000 NM lotus has to rise to $5710 for these investments to be equal.
The problem with graded power is that much of it is already marked up. It's like hoping for a $1 magic rare to triple vs a pricey staple to triple from its already high price point. After watching the Vintage market for the past few years, I cannot honestly say that Graded Power rises faster than SP power. But I not saying that SP rises faster than graded power either!
As far as I can tell, Graded Power itself does not even rise consistently! There has been a dramatic rise in the price of BGS 9 power. But did BGS 8.5 share that gain? Likewise did BGS 9.5 power rise at the same rate as BGS 9? From my analysis the answer is no, it all depends.
Gaea's Cradles nearly doubled after the legendary rule change. But Gaea's cradles foil most certainly did NOT double. They went up, but didn't double.
Just as the foil Misty rainforest market and the regular misty rainforest market are separate markets with some relation to each other, So too is the vintage and graded vintage markets different. Eventually the price change of one is likely to affect the other, but they can really move their own direction for awhile doing their own thing before the price of one will affect the other.
I actually picked up both. I have some graded power and ungraded power. My preference was for graded power. But not if the premium for that BGS grade was too high.
I think thats a good way to go.
i haven't seen them sell a single lotus yet at these new prices. They're up to 11 now and just sitting on them. I have also heard from people trying to buylist at these new high prices and getting massive lowballs compared to when the prices were lower. In terms of non SCG sources like thebay and the mtg high end facebook group, the prices are not much different than they were a few months ago before SCG jacked their prices. So until we see a handful for established sales at these new prices it's still just speculation. Prior to these increases a NM lotus would be considered around a BGS 8. If they consider NM closer to BGS 10 now then there really isn't much of a price increase, just a clarification.
Well, I think it's sort of simple. Last year, SCG had NM lotuses in stock at $1500, and they weren't selling that quickly. I saw the same NM on their site for maybe 3 months before it was bought. Now here's the thing - if I wasn't interested at paying the inflated (at the time) SCG price of $1.5k, why would I be interested now, when the price is multiple times higher? The mentality of buying them while you still can is fickle and arbitrary.
It's weird, like people panic when one of their P9 actually sells instead of being listed for month on end, so that must mean demand is going up. There's plenty of listings on ebay right now that probably started at half the value their are currently trying to be sold at - they were unsold at that price, and are unsold at the new, higher price. That should be a signal that the market isn't quite what people think it is. Whoever thought that people raising the price of something until it sells makes sense?
The same reason people will buy stock at $200 instead of at $20. The same reason people panic buy when a stock is rising.
Power is in the 'the higher it's valued, the more people will want it.' People make lots of uncertain, unreasonable choices when it comes to money (I know I do!). There's no difference to me buying shares of a stock or buying my Beta Lotus. I chose to diversify my investment into something I love. Oddly enough, it wasn't 'worth' it to put money into P9 because it was so cheap. (Not saying I wish I had more foresight to buy primo stuff earlier, but I hope you get my point).
(I have no plans of ever selling the P9, it will go to my kids, but I'm happy with the prices I paid. I wouldn't pay the same for ungraded lower rated stuff unless it was a huge discount. Maybe for the second set)
i haven't seen them sell a single lotus yet at these new prices. They're up to 11 now and just sitting on them. I have also heard from people trying to buylist at these new high prices and getting massive lowballs compared to when the prices were lower. In terms of non SCG sources like thebay and the mtg high end facebook group, the prices are not much different than they were a few months ago before SCG jacked their prices. So until we see a handful for established sales at these new prices it's still just speculation. Prior to these increases a NM lotus would be considered around a BGS 8. If they consider NM closer to BGS 10 now then there really isn't much of a price increase, just a clarification.
guarantee if they bring these to an event or ptq they'll run through at least half of them. The % of people buying a lotus all cash is low, its more of a trade + cash or straight trade.
It looks like everyone here agrees on one thing. The next big market data point to watch out for is this:
Will those Lotuses sell? I think even tonyg would agree that if those 8 lotuses @ 3.999k actually do sell, that would be an indication that the current vintage price trends are validated. If they don't sell and if SaintA's point on SCG's buylist is not reliable due to markdowns, then the lotus price is in reality weaker and the current prices we are seeing do not reflect actual market sentiment.
You lost me at "recent gains to reserve list cards". Have you seen the price history graphs lately? I'll link to some at the end of the post.
The only things 'poised to rise' are graded Alpha, Beta and Arabian Nights cards. Anything else is very likely on the way down. Why? Because there's a lot of it, and with SCG greatly reducing Legacy opens, all signs point to a slow devaluing of stuff.
Of course, things won't crash, but if you go to MTGGoldfish or MTGStocks, you can clearly see that pretty much all Legacy staples on the Reserve List are on a downtrend, with an average of 20% price reduction since their peak in mid-March 2014. Some have fallen very little (Volcanic Island), others have cratered (Wasteland). Nevertheless, there has been a drop.
Even things that are deemed highly collectible, such as mint Summer cards, have failed to meet expectations in auctions. A Sengir Vampire, for example, recently only fetched $400 or so on an open auction. Currently, only the highest graded (BGS 9.5/10, and depending on the card, BGS 9/PSA 10) are demanding substantial premiums.
Additionally, when you look at completed auctions on eBay, prices are clearly on a downswing. Usually, summer (the season) is considered the 'slow season' for Magic sales and prices. Activity starts picking up again with the release of the fall set, and continues though winter. However, looking at our two Legacy examples (Volc and Waste), they have also clearly fallen. Volcs are closing for around $200, with SP ones around $150. Wastelands are hovering at $50, down from an eBay high of about $90.
Therefore, I think that if you want to continue to 'invest' in MtG, I'd look towards graded, mint or near mint condition cards. That also protects you against counterfeiting, which, if you've been paying attention, is slowly getting better and better.
Mr.C, in each of your examples, the period of price decrease was preceded by a large jump in price. This jump corresponded to the spike in Modern staples and subsequent trading up into reserved cards. Everyone expected the price to correct itself and slowly drop back down, which the graphs show. I don't agree with your extrapolation that this downward trend will continue indefinitely. In fact I'm predicting another bump upwards soon as people again trade their inflated Modern staples into reserved stuff before MM2 spoiler season starts. Only time will tell.
Mr.C, in each of your examples, the period of price decrease was preceded by a large jump in price. This jump corresponded to the spike in Modern staples and subsequent trading up into reserved cards. Everyone expected the price to correct itself and slowly drop back down, which the graphs show. I don't agree with your extrapolation that this downward trend will continue indefinitely. In fact I'm predicting another bump upwards soon as people again trade their inflated Modern staples into reserved stuff before MM2 spoiler season starts. Only time will tell.
Which inflated Modern staples that you can trade into Legacy stuff?
Namely Noble Hierarch, Zen Fetches, Tarmogoyf, Karn Liberated, Mox Opal, Fulminator Mage, Bitterblossom. Things like that. I'm not saying that all these cards will be reprinted in MM2, but the writing's on the wall in terms of WotC's willingness/desire to reprint these staples to make them more accessible. Each of the cards above are cards that I've traded into reserved list cards in the last year, anticipating eventual reprints. Now that reprints are all but assured I expect others to do the same.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Decks:
Legacy
Control
Miracles
All flavors of Stoneblade
Aggro
Grixis Delver
UR Delver
Burn
Combo
Dredge
TES/ANT
UR & UB Reanimator
Belcher
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
I think the recent gains to power and other reserve list cards are a flight to safety. "Flight to safety" is basically a concept from the financial world in which lack of faith in one holding, causes people to move their money to safer holdings. For example if people think the economy is going down, they will buy gold and treasury bills and will avoid riskier investments.
Almost every major staple has now been reprinted. Thoughtseize, tarmogoyf, Liliana (ptq), Bob, Clique, Vial, the list goes on. The only major staples that have not yet been reprinted are the ones too recently printed to warrant a reprint. These reprints put downward pressure on the prices of these cards. I think in the short term, players having been moving their cards or purchasing more reserve list cards as part of a "flight to safety"
In addition, players who might otherwise have spent money picking up extra playsets might pick up a piece of power instead causing the recent dramatic rise in Vintage prices.
At this point, I'll just come out and say what most of us already know. Now is not a period in which you want to be holding cards that will be reprinted (unless you want to use them in the near future).
Magic is headed towards a direction in which the cheapest way to go is to hold off for as long as possible. The long term trend of ANY non-reserve list card is down.
Is wizards going to reprint Tarmogoyf again? Yes, if not in MM2, then in some future product.
What about Bob, Clique, and Thoughtseize, fetches. Will wizards reprint them again? Yes. That is now what people expect.
If they will be reprinted again in the future, the best thing to do, assuming you don't need the cards right away is to hold off from buying the cards now.
In other words, hold onto ONLY the cards you need or expect to use, and sell everything else.
There is little point in holding a collection of cards that will only be reprinted in short order. Buy selling now, I can get the most value for my cards. By buying later, I can pick up the staples I need when they're at their cheapest (having just been reprinted)
Even players who say they will still hold onto their decks as the cards drop in value might sell additional cards they don't need. I dont see myself selling my decks, but I will certainly be selling my additional cards outside my decks.
The only exception to this general trend are reserve list cards. All the money spent by speculators and collectors has to go somewhere. And with the recent price jumps to Power 9, it looks like the money went into Vintage.
I think if theres one lesson to take from Econ its that strange things happen when we know general price trends.
If we absolutely know that something will go down in the future, it makes sense to hold off for as long as possible. The longer you hold off, the more you can buy when you have to buy it.
Conversely, if we absolutely know something will go up in the future, it makes sense to buy now; it's only going to get more expensive later.
Rising Vintage prices will probably kick the sitting money on the sidelines. Have you ever wanted to own a black lotus? What about a mox sapphire? At the rate they're rising if you ever want a prayer in hell of owning one, buy now before their prices go too high. It's funny that at times, rising prices can actually spur demand.
In light of Wizards recent reprint policy, I predict that Reserve list cards, particularly vintage are well positioned to see good price gains in 2015. With purchasing in modern being dampened by a spate of new reprints, more money will shift into Vintage and reserve list cards in the coming months.
Legacy
Control
Miracles
All flavors of Stoneblade
Aggro
Grixis Delver
UR Delver
Burn
Combo
Dredge
TES/ANT
UR & UB Reanimator
Belcher
The reason I shied away a little from Dual lands and Legacy based reserve list cards is because SCG's continued support for legacy is a little uncertain. That uncertainty could affect the future growth of dual prices. If SCG instead put out a statement like "we would like to emphatically reaffirm our continued support for the legacy format in our Tournament series. Legacy is an important part of magic, and we will be maintaining support for it in the foreseeable future", that would probably cause duals and other legacy staples to rise strongly next year.
But I do agree with your statement. I think people have incentive to move expensive cards they aren't using into cards on the reserve list or cash.
I agree with you there that it does look interesting how many lotuses SCG now has in their collection.
If it's one thing we know its that sucking up the supply is NOT the same thing as creating new demand for the cards.
But I think that's really more of a problem with jank rare cards. What I mean by that is suppose someone buys up all the Alurens. That doesn't mean that Alurens are suddenly used in legacy, all you've got are more expensive Alurens now, but nobody is buying. You've cornered a market which no one ever visits.
But here we have two differences. 1. It's SCG has a plethora of Lotuses (i last saw 8 in MP selling @4k) 2. SCG has a buylist.
So why is that different? Well in one sense, if the stability of SCG's buylist is to be believed, it means that NM Black Lotus has an absolute floor of 4500 (or however much they are buying for) It means that even if you spend 4500 for a piece of cardboard, you can always get that money back. That 4500 figure will also affect lesser conditions. It's not like an SP lotus is going to be worth 1k when the NM lotuses are 4.5k. If so, someone will buy up all the SP lotuses.
That buylist effectively sets a range which hovers around that 4500 buylist price.
You're right in that its not like people are now clamoring to buy 5000 dollar lotuses. But that buylist is a powerful market force in its own right.
It means that if you were to find a real NM lotus elsewhere selling for 3k, you would buy it up immediately!
That market behavior you exhibited based on your rational economic self interest, so influenced by the buylist will percolate throughout the magic market at large.
In time, it will help set a price memory around that range. Furthermore, it means that the purchase of a Lotus has market risk in the range of 4.5k.
For example, if I find an SP lotus for 2k. I would buy it because SCG is paying 4.5k for a NM. In fact, at 3k, I would still feel I'm not taking much risk. A more enterprising speculator might purchase an SP lotus for 4k without feeling bad about it.
So you're right in that there might be some skepticism with the recent vintage price hike. But that buylist price, by (SCG) a party reputable that people feel safe buying from, also warps your ordinary market conditions.
For sure for lower price items they will pay what their buylist is at. But for higher priced cards, they will NEVER pay anywhere near what they list. This isn't conjecture, it's actual fact. We 'tested' SCG by bringing them NM Power 9 (Graded) and they refused to pay anywhere near their prices. They were offering closer to 66%
So if you think there is a magical floor because SCG sets one, you are wrong. They are making a market to maximize their profits with a bit of duplicity. They know they're the market leader so they can do this. Offer 4-5K for a lotus, then when someone brings them one, offer them $2500-3K. If the person sells, great for them, they remark it up to $7K. If the person walks, they don't care. The 'buylist' is win win win for them (as it should be).
Thanks for that. I did not know that.
I'm a little confused by this. Do you mean sixty-six percent of their buy list price, or sixty-six percent of their purchase price?
These would be a poor substitute for the original duals, as they aren't fetchable. They would have very little impact on the ABUR duals.
People have been saying that about Vintage for over a decade now. And prices are higher than ever. I believe Legacy will follow a similar trend. Legacy staples are on average less collectible, but more playable, which will balance them out. Only time will tell, but I really don't see Vintage/Legacy cards crashing in price until the game dies.
Legacy
Control
Miracles
All flavors of Stoneblade
Aggro
Grixis Delver
UR Delver
Burn
Combo
Dredge
TES/ANT
UR & UB Reanimator
Belcher
Sure you can pick up beat to crap P9, but the primo stuff is just 'going away'. I know. It was hard, but I had to just bite the bullet and buy the primo graded stuff (so I'm biased of course!). This is not a 'quick flip', in 5-10 years, these prices will look stupid cheap.
U bought graded power or ungraded power? I was wondering if it be worth it to try picking up say sp-sp minus power to have the potential to play vintage going forward. Especially before prices get too crazy like they seem theyre heading. Could you lend any thought or ur opinion on this?
The vintage price hike is staying. Power 9 are the most iconic cards in the game. Lotus dropping? Not a chance. People are willing to pay 4K+ or more on a NM lotus when a year ago it was nowhere near that price. Whenever I have sold to SCG they have honored their buylist prices including the time I buylisted them blazing shoals right before they got banned in modern after PT Belcher where they received the cards after they had been banned and still honored their buylist price whereas other sites have said "sorry we aren't going to pay you that much since the price dropped" the most recent example of this being onslaught fetchlands I heard of many people having their buylists not honored.
As for NM power going away, well NM power has been going away for a long, long time. Inevitably the people holding NM power will have to sell at some point due to needing the money for way more important things than pieces of cardboard that have no intrinsic value of any kind. The odds of a NM piece of power lying around in someones collection for the rest of their lives is pretty small. Eventually price factor creeps in. Let's say NM alpha lotuses commanded a retail price of 100 grand. Eventually people will sell a card on the principle that they bought it for so much less and that it's worth too much for them to hold onto. I know I would sell my unlimited beat to hell lotus in a second if I could get 5 grand for it/way more than I paid for it. Same is true of many other people. So to say that once a NM lotus will always be off the market is simply not true because people like money. A lot.
Currently Playing:
Retired
I agree with your conclusions for the most part also. Harvesting value from the secondary market (via reprinting) will continue and escalate. They can, so they will. Period!
.
I wouldn't even consider SP stuff unless it was misgraded or you know for a fact it will grade out nicely. The difference in price between SP and NM is massive (by massive I mean, 50% massive). The higher up in price you go the higher the difference (as it should be).
Otoh, if you're looking to play with them, then buy whatever strikes your fancy. But don't be upset a few years down the road when the SP stuff is basically worthless compared to graded/NM stuff. If you don't believe me, check out ebay. Graded Beta Lotus are flying off the shelves. Yet the ungraded, beat up stuff is just sitting forever. Right now, I think that the graded stuff is actually 'cheap/good value' compared to the ungraded stuff (this will change! or it already has, I'm not in the know of all the behind the scenes P9 changes).
Also, I have no reason to slander SCG. I get nothing out of it, in fact, it would hurt me to say anything about them (they are the price setters, so they're upping the price of my cards!). It's a fact. (Also check my posts, I think I left glowing praise for SCG before, I order from them because I need cards now and I'm fine paying for them). I presented them with GRADED Power 9 to sell and they offered me lowball prices. When I asked about the buylist prices, they said, 'take it or leave it.' (In nicer words of course).
The analysis depends on how much more you are paying for Nice graded power vs the SP version.
Lets start with the ridiculous scenario, because it's instructive.
Suppose SP lotus is $500. Suppose the NM Lotus is $5000.
Obviously buy the SP lotus. The SP lotus is worth well in excess of $500 and you will likely make an 800+% return immediately. For the $5000 NM lotus to make an 800% return, it would need to rise to $40,000. That's not happening.
Now that we are done with the ridiculous scenario, lets move onto a more realistic dilemma.
SP Lotus $3500 vs NM Lotus BGS 8 $5000.
Which one should you buy? This is more iffy. Even if the NM BGS 8 lotus is nice, its a whopping 42.85% more expensive than the SP lotus.
The NM might go up faster. But as an investment, it has to!
If the SP lotus rises in price by $500 and the NM lotus rises in price by $500, then obviously the SP Lotus was the superior investment.
That works out to a 14.2% gain vs a 10% gain. The 5000 NM lotus has to rise to $5710 for these investments to be equal.
The problem with graded power is that much of it is already marked up. It's like hoping for a $1 magic rare to triple vs a pricey staple to triple from its already high price point. After watching the Vintage market for the past few years, I cannot honestly say that Graded Power rises faster than SP power. But I not saying that SP rises faster than graded power either!
As far as I can tell, Graded Power itself does not even rise consistently! There has been a dramatic rise in the price of BGS 9 power. But did BGS 8.5 share that gain? Likewise did BGS 9.5 power rise at the same rate as BGS 9? From my analysis the answer is no, it all depends.
Gaea's Cradles nearly doubled after the legendary rule change. But Gaea's cradles foil most certainly did NOT double. They went up, but didn't double.
Just as the foil Misty rainforest market and the regular misty rainforest market are separate markets with some relation to each other, So too is the vintage and graded vintage markets different. Eventually the price change of one is likely to affect the other, but they can really move their own direction for awhile doing their own thing before the price of one will affect the other.
I actually picked up both. I have some graded power and ungraded power. My preference was for graded power. But not if the premium for that BGS grade was too high.
I think thats a good way to go.
It's weird, like people panic when one of their P9 actually sells instead of being listed for month on end, so that must mean demand is going up. There's plenty of listings on ebay right now that probably started at half the value their are currently trying to be sold at - they were unsold at that price, and are unsold at the new, higher price. That should be a signal that the market isn't quite what people think it is. Whoever thought that people raising the price of something until it sells makes sense?
Power is in the 'the higher it's valued, the more people will want it.' People make lots of uncertain, unreasonable choices when it comes to money (I know I do!). There's no difference to me buying shares of a stock or buying my Beta Lotus. I chose to diversify my investment into something I love. Oddly enough, it wasn't 'worth' it to put money into P9 because it was so cheap. (Not saying I wish I had more foresight to buy primo stuff earlier, but I hope you get my point).
(I have no plans of ever selling the P9, it will go to my kids, but I'm happy with the prices I paid. I wouldn't pay the same for ungraded lower rated stuff unless it was a huge discount. Maybe for the second set)
guarantee if they bring these to an event or ptq they'll run through at least half of them. The % of people buying a lotus all cash is low, its more of a trade + cash or straight trade.
Will those Lotuses sell? I think even tonyg would agree that if those 8 lotuses @ 3.999k actually do sell, that would be an indication that the current vintage price trends are validated. If they don't sell and if SaintA's point on SCG's buylist is not reliable due to markdowns, then the lotus price is in reality weaker and the current prices we are seeing do not reflect actual market sentiment.
The only things 'poised to rise' are graded Alpha, Beta and Arabian Nights cards. Anything else is very likely on the way down. Why? Because there's a lot of it, and with SCG greatly reducing Legacy opens, all signs point to a slow devaluing of stuff.
Of course, things won't crash, but if you go to MTGGoldfish or MTGStocks, you can clearly see that pretty much all Legacy staples on the Reserve List are on a downtrend, with an average of 20% price reduction since their peak in mid-March 2014. Some have fallen very little (Volcanic Island), others have cratered (Wasteland). Nevertheless, there has been a drop.
Even things that are deemed highly collectible, such as mint Summer cards, have failed to meet expectations in auctions. A Sengir Vampire, for example, recently only fetched $400 or so on an open auction. Currently, only the highest graded (BGS 9.5/10, and depending on the card, BGS 9/PSA 10) are demanding substantial premiums.
Additionally, when you look at completed auctions on eBay, prices are clearly on a downswing. Usually, summer (the season) is considered the 'slow season' for Magic sales and prices. Activity starts picking up again with the release of the fall set, and continues though winter. However, looking at our two Legacy examples (Volc and Waste), they have also clearly fallen. Volcs are closing for around $200, with SP ones around $150. Wastelands are hovering at $50, down from an eBay high of about $90.
Therefore, I think that if you want to continue to 'invest' in MtG, I'd look towards graded, mint or near mint condition cards. That also protects you against counterfeiting, which, if you've been paying attention, is slowly getting better and better.
- ~ -
Losers
Moat:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Legends&card=Moat
Underground Sea:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Revised Edition&card=Underground Sea
Volcanic Island:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Revised Edition&card=Volcanic Island
Tundra:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Revised Edition&card=Tundra
Tropical Island:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Revised Edition&card=Tropical Island
Lion's Eye Diamond:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Mirage&card=Lion's Eye Diamond
Savannah:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Revised Edition&card=Savannah
Scrubland:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Revised Edition&card=Scrubland
Wasteland:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Tempest&card=Wasteland
- ~ -
Winners:
Chains of Mephistopheles:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Legends&card=Chains of Mephistopheles
Gaea's Cradle:
http://www.mtgindex.com/?set=Urza's Saga&card=Gaea's Cradle
- ~ -
That really, really doesn't tell me "invest in Reserved List cards"
Legacy
Control
Miracles
All flavors of Stoneblade
Aggro
Grixis Delver
UR Delver
Burn
Combo
Dredge
TES/ANT
UR & UB Reanimator
Belcher
Which inflated Modern staples that you can trade into Legacy stuff?
Legacy
Control
Miracles
All flavors of Stoneblade
Aggro
Grixis Delver
UR Delver
Burn
Combo
Dredge
TES/ANT
UR & UB Reanimator
Belcher