Allied fetches are worth double what shocks were before they were reprinted.
Fetches are legacy staples unlike shocks.
Legacy has experienced a huge boom recently. Have you seen the price of blue duals?
The demand for fetches is going to outstrip almost every other card by about 10x.
I think what will most likely happen is that Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta will stay at $15-$20 while non-blue fetches and mythic rares take all the punches.
This is a much weaker bunch of mythic rares than any large set in recent memory, only just below Gatecrash.
You have some good points Aether7, but you like to exaggerate to much. You sound like Chicken Little, the sky is falling, the sky is falling.
Previous prices, while important are limited on how much they can impact the prices of cards in a set when you print a higher number of them in a set. Standard players still need the cards in this set to play Standard. I agree with you that this set isn't as powerful as the sets before THS, but that doesn't mean some cards won't sell for a lot. Just because a card isn't non-rotating format playable doesn't mean it won't have value while it is Standard playabe.
I see your on the Legacy band wagon. Being a Modern staple is almost as important to a non foil cards value as a being a Legacy staple and will probably be more important by the time the cards have a chance to really increase in price.
The Legacy boom, oh you mean the one that was caused by SCG's holding one, let me repeat that, one, Modern GP and the Modern Fetches almost hit the prices of the Legacy Fetches and a ton of people cashed in to buy duals. Yeah it happened, but partly because of the demand from Modern.
Legacy is a blue format. The majority of the players have their fetches, being a blue format that is their blue fetches. I am sure their will be a fair amount of demand as people finish their sets, might as well since they will be so cheap.
Modern and Standard players, unless they are also Legacy players don't have these lands. This is where the real demand is going to come from as these players don't have the cards already.
I see a lot of people saying the blue duals will be 50% more than the rest, or in your case it looks like you think it might be even higher. Modern demand for Windswept Heath will probably be high, Melira Pod, G/W Hatebears and Junk. Wooded Foothills will probably get a lot of support from Standard, Jund Walkers. A lot of that deck is staying around. If that deck turned into the new Mono Black then Wooded Foothills would probably end up as the most or second most expensive Fetch until THS rotated. I am not claiming to know what the future holds, but I wouldn't be surprised if the spread between the Fetch prices is a lot narrower than people are thinking, depending what is popular in Standard and how the ONS Fetches shake up Modern.
I think Fetch demand will look like this:
1 Standard- Biggest format and people will want them, either for that 1% chance they have to win with them vs regular lands or because they are trying to jam those turn 3 wedge spells on turn 3.
2 Modern- Pretty much only the Legacy players with Modern decks have the cards. The majority of the player base needs the cards and saw what happened with the Allied Fetches. They will be buying these ASAP.
3 Speculators- This guys will probably be buying the blue Fetches as they think that will be the best investment. Oh, blue Fetches, blue is the color of GODS, they will go up. Maybe, but if Modern stays how it is the Allied Fetches are better for blue and I would rather buy some of the non-blue Fetches if the meta stays the game.
4 Legacy- Most of the players will have at least part of their blue Fetches completed and this is possibly the lowest player base of the three formats. If not, it is definitely the lowest in the number of players who need Fetches.
Now is that premium justified? Maybe, maybe not. All the numbers I see actually point out that Verdant Catacombs should be priced just as high as Blue Enemy Fetches perhaps more than Scalding Tarn. Verdant Catacombs was included in a 2012 Modern Event Deck and could account for the $20 differential. But I think Blue Fetch-hype accounts for most of that $20 difference.
Modern may contribute more demand for Allied Fetchlands than Standard. Modern Players are more likely to purchase full sets of Allied Fetchlands, whereas Standard players will only purchase what they need and typically only when they need it.
• Sure Aether7 is a bit dramatic, but it's really just his way of giving emphasis
At the end of the day... Prices of fetches will be dictated by expected box value. Vendors will open boxes as long as it is profitable to do so... So prices will drop until the profit margins get tight or closer to even. After all why go through all the trouble to only make a dollar?
So.... There should be a little under 3 fetches per box... But I will round it to 3 for simplicity sake. If the fetches are $20 each that soaks up $60 of box value. Vendors can get boxes for $75-$80 from what I have been told. So having 5 rare cards soak up that much box value is not really sustainable while in print. There are other playable/good cards in this set and mythics always carry a good chunk of box value. Even at $15 each they are soaking up more than half the value. That is also tough to sustain in my mind but at least getting close to possible if the rest of the set is a dud (I kind of like it myself though)
I think the two blue fetches will bottom out between $10 and $15.... And the other 3 will dip below $10 at some point. The only way the fetches can stay higher is if all the mythics stay low... Which could (but likely won't) happen if the demand for fetches is significantly more than the demand for the chase mythic(s). Otherwise the expected box value will not drop enough that vendors won't just keep cracking boxes to stock inventory.
Aether7 brings up a lot of valid points... But that will impact them more in the long run. While in print it just all has to come down to expected box value... And what is relevant in standard since that really drives prices more than other formats. WoTC will happily print this set until demand is met... And vendors will happily demand more as long as there is money to be made.
I am more curious if any rare can hold its ground with all the value the fetches will soak up. Back in the zendikar days not much could. Even goblin guide (an amazing rare) was pretty cheap! Anyone see any good targets?
It just been released, it'll go down in a couple weeks, there is still a bit of scarcity involved as there is plenty of product not yet on the market.
For sure, my LGS was sold out of Khans boxes within 5 minutes of opening their doors on Friday. There wasn't enough for the store to run FNM drafts.
I think the future for high value reprints is pretty much locked in for future sets.
I have been saying non-reserved high value cards are a license to print money and I'm glad Wizards agrees. They want profits, we want reprints. Everybody wins except those that paid the inflated prices for out of print non-reserved list cards and I think those people knew what they were doing and deserve no sympathy.
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You have some good points Aether7, but you like to exaggerate to much. You sound like Chicken Little, the sky is falling, the sky is falling.
Previous prices, while important are limited on how much they can impact the prices of cards in a set when you print a higher number of them in a set. Standard players still need the cards in this set to play Standard. I agree with you that this set isn't as powerful as the sets before THS, but that doesn't mean some cards won't sell for a lot. Just because a card isn't non-rotating format playable doesn't mean it won't have value while it is Standard playabe.
I see your on the Legacy band wagon. Being a Modern staple is almost as important to a non foil cards value as a being a Legacy staple and will probably be more important by the time the cards have a chance to really increase in price.
The Legacy boom, oh you mean the one that was caused by SCG's holding one, let me repeat that, one, Modern GP and the Modern Fetches almost hit the prices of the Legacy Fetches and a ton of people cashed in to buy duals. Yeah it happened, but partly because of the demand from Modern.
Legacy is a blue format. The majority of the players have their fetches, being a blue format that is their blue fetches. I am sure their will be a fair amount of demand as people finish their sets, might as well since they will be so cheap.
Modern and Standard players, unless they are also Legacy players don't have these lands. This is where the real demand is going to come from as these players don't have the cards already.
I see a lot of people saying the blue duals will be 50% more than the rest, or in your case it looks like you think it might be even higher. Modern demand for Windswept Heath will probably be high, Melira Pod, G/W Hatebears and Junk. Wooded Foothills will probably get a lot of support from Standard, Jund Walkers. A lot of that deck is staying around. If that deck turned into the new Mono Black then Wooded Foothills would probably end up as the most or second most expensive Fetch until THS rotated. I am not claiming to know what the future holds, but I wouldn't be surprised if the spread between the Fetch prices is a lot narrower than people are thinking, depending what is popular in Standard and how the ONS Fetches shake up Modern.
I think Fetch demand will look like this:
1 Standard- Biggest format and people will want them, either for that 1% chance they have to win with them vs regular lands or because they are trying to jam those turn 3 wedge spells on turn 3.
2 Modern- Pretty much only the Legacy players with Modern decks have the cards. The majority of the player base needs the cards and saw what happened with the Allied Fetches. They will be buying these ASAP.
3 Speculators- This guys will probably be buying the blue Fetches as they think that will be the best investment. Oh, blue Fetches, blue is the color of GODS, they will go up. Maybe, but if Modern stays how it is the Allied Fetches are better for blue and I would rather buy some of the non-blue Fetches if the meta stays the game.
4 Legacy- Most of the players will have at least part of their blue Fetches completed and this is possibly the lowest player base of the three formats. If not, it is definitely the lowest in the number of players who need Fetches.
Now is that premium justified? Maybe, maybe not. All the numbers I see actually point out that Verdant Catacombs should be priced just as high as Blue Enemy Fetches perhaps more than Scalding Tarn. Verdant Catacombs was included in a 2012 Modern Event Deck and could account for the $20 differential. But I think Blue Fetch-hype accounts for most of that $20 difference.
Modern may contribute more demand for Allied Fetchlands than Standard. Modern Players are more likely to purchase full sets of Allied Fetchlands, whereas Standard players will only purchase what they need and typically only when they need it.
• Sure Aether7 is a bit dramatic, but it's really just his way of giving emphasis
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
So.... There should be a little under 3 fetches per box... But I will round it to 3 for simplicity sake. If the fetches are $20 each that soaks up $60 of box value. Vendors can get boxes for $75-$80 from what I have been told. So having 5 rare cards soak up that much box value is not really sustainable while in print. There are other playable/good cards in this set and mythics always carry a good chunk of box value. Even at $15 each they are soaking up more than half the value. That is also tough to sustain in my mind but at least getting close to possible if the rest of the set is a dud (I kind of like it myself though)
I think the two blue fetches will bottom out between $10 and $15.... And the other 3 will dip below $10 at some point. The only way the fetches can stay higher is if all the mythics stay low... Which could (but likely won't) happen if the demand for fetches is significantly more than the demand for the chase mythic(s). Otherwise the expected box value will not drop enough that vendors won't just keep cracking boxes to stock inventory.
Aether7 brings up a lot of valid points... But that will impact them more in the long run. While in print it just all has to come down to expected box value... And what is relevant in standard since that really drives prices more than other formats. WoTC will happily print this set until demand is met... And vendors will happily demand more as long as there is money to be made.
I am more curious if any rare can hold its ground with all the value the fetches will soak up. Back in the zendikar days not much could. Even goblin guide (an amazing rare) was pretty cheap! Anyone see any good targets?
Wingmate Roc is pushing $10.
This set defies the laws of economics or fetches are going to crash and burn.
For sure, my LGS was sold out of Khans boxes within 5 minutes of opening their doors on Friday. There wasn't enough for the store to run FNM drafts.
I think the future for high value reprints is pretty much locked in for future sets.
I have been saying non-reserved high value cards are a license to print money and I'm glad Wizards agrees. They want profits, we want reprints. Everybody wins except those that paid the inflated prices for out of print non-reserved list cards and I think those people knew what they were doing and deserve no sympathy.