Based on SCG's pre-order prices at this moment, they have an EV of $138.77 for a box of KTK, and that's not counting
a) Foils
b) 4 Mythics
c) 18 Rares
d) 62 Uncommons
e) 93 Commons
Hmmm... Considering you can pre-order a box for $109.99 from SCG, I think they've got the fetches a little too high, there. They count for almost half of the EV ($68.32).
Yeah, the price of fetches is going to plummet hilariously. I may just be traded off the ones I get early on for cards that won't tank, and then just rebuy or trade for them in a couple months. Or not. They aren't bad long-term either, and I sure could use them. I sold my Onslaught ones a bit ago due to needing money more than cards.
That said, this may be the best time to trade into eternal staples if you can. Fetchlands may entice people to trade for equal value, and you can get quite a lot out of only a few Fetches early on, if you don't mind not having them for the time being until prices drop.
People who are paying more than $15 for them are paying a premium to have the cards early, presumably because they want to play in the early-season Standard tournaments. If you don't need the fetchlands until December, don't buy them until December - boxes will be cracked, and prices will fall to accommodate the fact that the cards in a box can't be worth more than the price of a sealed box (and Khans, as a Standard set, will be printed to demand).
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Former Level 2 Judge (Retired / Renounced)
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
As always, look for sleepers. Narset seems to have the biggest chance of doing something extraordinary without people noticing until it is too late. Compare her to Keranos; amazing, potentially game-breaking ability at a high mana cost. The rest of the preorder cards -- particularly the fetches -- are overpriced. Look for what you can snipe on eBay for a buck or two if you want to play with it, just in case something gets hot later, but stay away from the $5.00 or more cards for now.
As everyone has said here: fetches are going to cause this set to sell like gangbusters. This means the rest of the set will drop in value because they will be oversupplied. Also, remember that MTGO redemption becomes a thing shortly after the release, and this more or less forces all of the cards in set to share value just like the cost of a box does. Be patient on all cards but fetches.
On fetches, you should feel totally comfortable buying in at $10 - $15. That's what the Zendikar fetches were during that set's run. While you might argue Modern is a thing now, and so there is more demand, that demand will be slaked by the fact that KTK will be printed to satisfy the demand.
Any thoughts on Rakasha Deathdealer or Savage Knucklebone at $2 and $4 respectively?
I wouldn't bite. They'll be $1 after a week or two. People will be cracking boxes fast in an effort to sell Fetches before they drop. The initial price drop across the board is going to be staggering. If you are looking for a "Sleeper" you'll probably be able to scoop them up cheaper after release from the pile of 537 cards per box labeled "Not-Fetchlands".
On fetches, you should feel totally comfortable buying in at $10 - $15. That's what the Zendikar fetches were during that set's run. While you might argue Modern is a thing now, and so there is more demand, that demand will be slaked by the fact that KTK will be printed to satisfy the demand.
Also the enemy fetches were never printed before Zendikar, whereas there are already quite a bit of allied Onslaught fetches out there. I'll be getting my 20 fetches when they're in the $10-12 range which I predict will happen by the end of October.
Thoughts on Grim Haruspex. I saw they were $1 on SCG pre order with 36 of them there, there are 0 there now... It seems like it has an amazing upside and morph just in case, at the least a 3/2 for 2B. If it sees any standard play the $1 price tag won't stay.
Boxes are worth over $200 at current prices. So much for SCG putting up low starting prices. They'll cash in on hype if they can, no doubting that now.
All non-fetchland rares are worth NOTHING or very close to it.
Even if certain rares become 4 of constructed staples they're still barely worth anything.
Only mythics and fetchlands can ever be worth something in this set or else the cards in the boxes would be worth more than the price of the box.
How so? How do you know that fetchlands will be any different than shocks that dropped significantly in price due to the mass influx of cards? The only difference is fetches are used in legacy but there are so many decks that don't use fetches in legacy and legacy makes up a significantly smaller portion of the playerbase than even modern. When fetches hit even $15 each thats only half the box of value there, the $50 has to come from somewhere else and it sure isn't selling 1000 commons for $15 on ebay. They might rise for a few weeks as people snatch up every copy they see but this set will be opened like crazy because of them, the price will eventually drop when people figure out what is happening in the new standard metagame.
All non-fetchland rares are worth NOTHING or very close to it.
Even if certain rares become 4 of constructed staples they're still barely worth anything.
Only mythics and fetchlands can ever be worth something in this set or else the cards in the boxes would be worth more than the price of the box.
How so? How do you know that fetchlands will be any different than shocks that dropped significantly in price due to the mass influx of cards? The only difference is fetches are used in legacy but there are so many decks that don't use fetches in legacy and legacy makes up a significantly smaller portion of the playerbase than even modern. When fetches hit even $15 each thats only half the box of value there, the $50 has to come from somewhere else and it sure isn't selling 1000 commons for $15 on ebay. They might rise for a few weeks as people snatch up every copy they see but this set will be opened like crazy because of them, the price will eventually drop when people figure out what is happening in the new standard metagame.
33 packs for $50, with no chance of a fetch but with all mythic rares and foils still in play? Is that what you're saying?
I'm a bit surprised to see it pre-selling for $1 on SCG.
I represent a group of 6 casual players, we are all very very hyped about this card, it is not amazing i know that, but casting 3 copies of lightning bolt just sounds so sweet to us. Again, i dont think it will be huge but it has an appeal with the casual crowd for sure.
Howl is a difficult card to evaluate, but most people I've spoken to in the eternal crowd consider it likely unplayable in older formats. It is conditionally better than Fork, and Fork hasn't seen play in ages. This card will be bulk unless it enables some gnarly combos, and even then, it probably will still be bulk. (See Izzet Guildmage + Arcane spells combo).
I represent a group of 6 casual players, we are all very very hyped about this card, it is not amazing i know that, but casting 3 copies of lightning bolt just sounds so sweet to us. Again, i dont think it will be huge but it has an appeal with the casual crowd for sure.
3 Copies of Lightning Bolt for 2 cards and 4 mana that requires you to attack first. Why not just play 2 copies for 2 mana that doesn't require hoops or timing issues? This is a $.17 bulk rare. If it was an instant, or cost 2 it would be casual playable.
All non-fetchland rares are worth NOTHING or very close to it.
Even if certain rares become 4 of constructed staples they're still barely worth anything.
Only mythics and fetchlands can ever be worth something in this set or else the cards in the boxes would be worth more than the price of the box.
I think that analysis is a bit off. All formats will want fetches, yes, but it won't be worth it for players of all formats to open boxes for them. At the same time standard players will need standard staples (whatever they end up being) from Khans. Perhaps fetches could drive a surplus of opening (which I'd welcome), but there will be other things in the set with value.
I'm curious if this set is even worth a pre-order outside burning 90% of the order in hopes for a few fetchlands...is there anything in this set that will see Modern or Legacy (mainly Modern seeing legacy is all about dissipated now) play?
The more I go over each card...the more I have a feeling WOTC is lacking idea's for their progression forward in the game (seriously, is there any reason to buy here outside of burning funds in the Standard format, or does a guy just snipe the fetches on Ebay and undercut the Hog Vendors by 30-40%?).
We all pretty much knew they were going to flood the world with millions and millions of fetch playsets to balance out the price concerns etc, but is this their catch for the future (reprint a money card into oblivion and hope for the sales).
This is a solid and serious question as this set is looking really bad,
S.M.
I'm curious if this set is even worth a pre-order outside burning 90% of the order in hopes for a few fetchlands...is there anything in this set that will see Modern or Legacy (mainly Modern seeing legacy is all about dissipated now) play?
The more I go over each card...the more I have a feeling WOTC is lacking idea's for their progression forward in the game (seriously, is there any reason to buy here outside of burning funds in the Standard format, or does a guy just snipe the fetches on Ebay and undercut the Hog Vendors by 30-40%?).
We all pretty much knew they were going to flood the world with millions and millions of fetch playsets to balance out the price concerns etc, but is this their catch for the future (reprint a money card into oblivion and hope for the sales).
This is a solid and serious question as this set is looking really bad,
S.M.
I hav had a lot of these same feelings looking at this set. Almost none of it looks standard playable except fetches, sarkhan, and the charms. It kind of feels like they knew this set was going to be awful so they threw in fetches to make sure boxes sold. I guess I will just have to be happy to get fetches again and call it a day.
I'm curious if this set is even worth a pre-order outside burning 90% of the order in hopes for a few fetchlands...is there anything in this set that will see Modern or Legacy (mainly Modern seeing legacy is all about dissipated now) play?
The more I go over each card...the more I have a feeling WOTC is lacking idea's for their progression forward in the game (seriously, is there any reason to buy here outside of burning funds in the Standard format, or does a guy just snipe the fetches on Ebay and undercut the Hog Vendors by 30-40%?).
We all pretty much knew they were going to flood the world with millions and millions of fetch playsets to balance out the price concerns etc, but is this their catch for the future (reprint a money card into oblivion and hope for the sales).
This is a solid and serious question as this set is looking really bad,
S.M.
I hav had a lot of these same feelings looking at this set. Almost none of it looks standard playable except fetches, sarkhan, and the charms. It kind of feels like they knew this set was going to be awful so they threw in fetches to make sure boxes sold. I guess I will just have to be happy to get fetches again and call it a day.
Fetchlands were the among the first cards in the set file. It makes sense as well for an aggressively themed wedge set, as they are pretty much the only current lands when in conjunction with other duals can provide untapped mana for any given color of a wedge on turn 2, or provide untapped mana for a 3-color spell on turn three, barring shocks and pains (Neither of which would appear in khans for various reasons).
As for standard playable, of course plenty of cards will be standard playable. The set will likely impact standard a good deal. Modern and Legacy playable is another story, and I actually am not seeing a whole lot that will slot into any current, or future, archetype.
As for the set design meaning anything for the future, I doubt it. R&D are currently in love with combat as the driving factor of the game, but I doubt that will maintain itself for long. It was fine for the past couple years, but frankly people get tired of it. Khans was bottom-up design, with an apparent focus on combat in particular. I think they are being overzealous in thinking that "combat matters" or whatever they are going under really has as much design space as they think it does.
All non-fetchland rares are worth NOTHING or very close to it.
Even if certain rares become 4 of constructed staples they're still barely worth anything.
Only mythics and fetchlands can ever be worth something in this set or else the cards in the boxes would be worth more than the price of the box.
I think that analysis is a bit off. All formats will want fetches, yes, but it won't be worth it for players of all formats to open boxes for them. At the same time standard players will need standard staples (whatever they end up being) from Khans. Perhaps fetches could drive a surplus of opening (which I'd welcome), but there will be other things in the set with value.
Yes fetches are going to drive a surplus in opening. That's pretty obvious. This means there's going to be millions of plain old rare cards just sitting around and singles vendors will simply not be able to charge high prices or they'll get stuck with them.
Standard staples will be abundant and everything else will be MEGABULK. The biggest amount of bulk junk rares ever flooding the market in MTG history.
All non-fetchland rares are worth NOTHING or very close to it.
Even if certain rares become 4 of constructed staples they're still barely worth anything.
Only mythics and fetchlands can ever be worth something in this set or else the cards in the boxes would be worth more than the price of the box.
I think that analysis is a bit off. All formats will want fetches, yes, but it won't be worth it for players of all formats to open boxes for them. At the same time standard players will need standard staples (whatever they end up being) from Khans. Perhaps fetches could drive a surplus of opening (which I'd welcome), but there will be other things in the set with value.
Yes fetches are going to drive a surplus in opening. That's pretty obvious. This means there's going to be millions of plain old rare cards just sitting around and singles vendors will simply not be able to charge high prices or they'll get stuck with them.
Standard staples will be abundant and everything else will be MEGABULK. The biggest amount of bulk junk rares ever flooding the market in MTG history.
Aether7 is exaggerating or doesn't understand the market. While he is right that their will be a lot of product opened he fails to take into account WoTC limits the amount of product that hits the market in the beginning. While there will be a hell of a lot of product out there, WoTC does want to sell product after all, they will try to limit it to a point where prices won't crash when the set comes out. As in, boxes will only be worth about $100-$120, not that prices will come down from what I saw posted, SCG's $200 per box value right now. People keep posting that a box has to hit cheap retail prices otherwise it's a good deal. Opening a box you paid $90 that has an average of $100 is only good for the first one or two boxes, if that, I know I am passing. The more boxes you open the less value you get as you have to pay transaction costs to trade/sell the extra cards. Either money, value or time. Remember, SCG's and other vendors can't just order a million boxes for release and get them, this is why box prices go up if the set is really good for the first wave, WoTC controls the flow of product. Same thing with RTR, box prices went up before release. I think prices at major online retailers were up $10-$20 a box or more if I recall correctly.
What will happen is what normally happens, 95% of cards will drop upon release from their pre-order prices. A handful of cards will go up in price. After release prices will, in general, reflect their actual playability not their expected playability.
While MTG seems to have stalled a bit on growth, unless the number of players starts to drastically decrease the cards will be absorbed into the market, at least for the first few months. I remember people saying the same thing Aether7 is saying when RTR came out. OMG, Shocks are worth so much of a box price everything will be worth nothing. Yet we saw, good cards that didn't get played much were cheap but cards that saw tons of Standard/Non-Rotating play were worth money because Shocks dropped to around $10 each. Also, many cards went up upon rotation. Some were surprises, but some like Jace were pretty safe bets.
So
Allied fetches are worth double what shocks were before they were reprinted.
Fetches are legacy staples unlike shocks.
Legacy has experienced a huge boom recently. Have you seen the price of blue duals?
The demand for fetches is going to outstrip almost every other card by about 10x.
I think what will most likely happen is that Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta will stay at $15-$20 while non-blue fetches and mythic rares take all the punches.
This is a much weaker bunch of mythic rares than any large set in recent memory, only just below Gatecrash.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Yeah, the price of fetches is going to plummet hilariously. I may just be traded off the ones I get early on for cards that won't tank, and then just rebuy or trade for them in a couple months. Or not. They aren't bad long-term either, and I sure could use them. I sold my Onslaught ones a bit ago due to needing money more than cards.
That said, this may be the best time to trade into eternal staples if you can. Fetchlands may entice people to trade for equal value, and you can get quite a lot out of only a few Fetches early on, if you don't mind not having them for the time being until prices drop.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
As everyone has said here: fetches are going to cause this set to sell like gangbusters. This means the rest of the set will drop in value because they will be oversupplied. Also, remember that MTGO redemption becomes a thing shortly after the release, and this more or less forces all of the cards in set to share value just like the cost of a box does. Be patient on all cards but fetches.
On fetches, you should feel totally comfortable buying in at $10 - $15. That's what the Zendikar fetches were during that set's run. While you might argue Modern is a thing now, and so there is more demand, that demand will be slaked by the fact that KTK will be printed to satisfy the demand.
Wait, wait, wait.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
I wouldn't bite. They'll be $1 after a week or two. People will be cracking boxes fast in an effort to sell Fetches before they drop. The initial price drop across the board is going to be staggering. If you are looking for a "Sleeper" you'll probably be able to scoop them up cheaper after release from the pile of 537 cards per box labeled "Not-Fetchlands".
Also the enemy fetches were never printed before Zendikar, whereas there are already quite a bit of allied Onslaught fetches out there. I'll be getting my 20 fetches when they're in the $10-12 range which I predict will happen by the end of October.
I have seen several places online that sell locally for $85 each but not ship them
Boxes are worth over $200 at current prices. So much for SCG putting up low starting prices. They'll cash in on hype if they can, no doubting that now.
What does anyone else think?
I can't see a Genesis Wave that rips from your opponent’s deck falling below a dollar in the long run, but maybe I'm just overly excited.
All non-fetchland rares are worth NOTHING or very close to it.
Even if certain rares become 4 of constructed staples they're still barely worth anything.
Only mythics and fetchlands can ever be worth something in this set or else the cards in the boxes would be worth more than the price of the box.
How so? How do you know that fetchlands will be any different than shocks that dropped significantly in price due to the mass influx of cards? The only difference is fetches are used in legacy but there are so many decks that don't use fetches in legacy and legacy makes up a significantly smaller portion of the playerbase than even modern. When fetches hit even $15 each thats only half the box of value there, the $50 has to come from somewhere else and it sure isn't selling 1000 commons for $15 on ebay. They might rise for a few weeks as people snatch up every copy they see but this set will be opened like crazy because of them, the price will eventually drop when people figure out what is happening in the new standard metagame.
33 packs for $50, with no chance of a fetch but with all mythic rares and foils still in play? Is that what you're saying?
I represent a group of 6 casual players, we are all very very hyped about this card, it is not amazing i know that, but casting 3 copies of lightning bolt just sounds so sweet to us. Again, i dont think it will be huge but it has an appeal with the casual crowd for sure.
3 Copies of Lightning Bolt for 2 cards and 4 mana that requires you to attack first. Why not just play 2 copies for 2 mana that doesn't require hoops or timing issues? This is a $.17 bulk rare. If it was an instant, or cost 2 it would be casual playable.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
I think that analysis is a bit off. All formats will want fetches, yes, but it won't be worth it for players of all formats to open boxes for them. At the same time standard players will need standard staples (whatever they end up being) from Khans. Perhaps fetches could drive a surplus of opening (which I'd welcome), but there will be other things in the set with value.
The more I go over each card...the more I have a feeling WOTC is lacking idea's for their progression forward in the game (seriously, is there any reason to buy here outside of burning funds in the Standard format, or does a guy just snipe the fetches on Ebay and undercut the Hog Vendors by 30-40%?).
We all pretty much knew they were going to flood the world with millions and millions of fetch playsets to balance out the price concerns etc, but is this their catch for the future (reprint a money card into oblivion and hope for the sales).
This is a solid and serious question as this set is looking really bad,
S.M.
I hav had a lot of these same feelings looking at this set. Almost none of it looks standard playable except fetches, sarkhan, and the charms. It kind of feels like they knew this set was going to be awful so they threw in fetches to make sure boxes sold. I guess I will just have to be happy to get fetches again and call it a day.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?p=11439737#post11439737
Reality is only what man allows it to be. Few shape it so that many may accept it.
Fetchlands were the among the first cards in the set file. It makes sense as well for an aggressively themed wedge set, as they are pretty much the only current lands when in conjunction with other duals can provide untapped mana for any given color of a wedge on turn 2, or provide untapped mana for a 3-color spell on turn three, barring shocks and pains (Neither of which would appear in khans for various reasons).
As for standard playable, of course plenty of cards will be standard playable. The set will likely impact standard a good deal. Modern and Legacy playable is another story, and I actually am not seeing a whole lot that will slot into any current, or future, archetype.
As for the set design meaning anything for the future, I doubt it. R&D are currently in love with combat as the driving factor of the game, but I doubt that will maintain itself for long. It was fine for the past couple years, but frankly people get tired of it. Khans was bottom-up design, with an apparent focus on combat in particular. I think they are being overzealous in thinking that "combat matters" or whatever they are going under really has as much design space as they think it does.
Yes fetches are going to drive a surplus in opening. That's pretty obvious. This means there's going to be millions of plain old rare cards just sitting around and singles vendors will simply not be able to charge high prices or they'll get stuck with them.
Standard staples will be abundant and everything else will be MEGABULK. The biggest amount of bulk junk rares ever flooding the market in MTG history.
Aether7 is exaggerating or doesn't understand the market. While he is right that their will be a lot of product opened he fails to take into account WoTC limits the amount of product that hits the market in the beginning. While there will be a hell of a lot of product out there, WoTC does want to sell product after all, they will try to limit it to a point where prices won't crash when the set comes out. As in, boxes will only be worth about $100-$120, not that prices will come down from what I saw posted, SCG's $200 per box value right now. People keep posting that a box has to hit cheap retail prices otherwise it's a good deal. Opening a box you paid $90 that has an average of $100 is only good for the first one or two boxes, if that, I know I am passing. The more boxes you open the less value you get as you have to pay transaction costs to trade/sell the extra cards. Either money, value or time. Remember, SCG's and other vendors can't just order a million boxes for release and get them, this is why box prices go up if the set is really good for the first wave, WoTC controls the flow of product. Same thing with RTR, box prices went up before release. I think prices at major online retailers were up $10-$20 a box or more if I recall correctly.
What will happen is what normally happens, 95% of cards will drop upon release from their pre-order prices. A handful of cards will go up in price. After release prices will, in general, reflect their actual playability not their expected playability.
While MTG seems to have stalled a bit on growth, unless the number of players starts to drastically decrease the cards will be absorbed into the market, at least for the first few months. I remember people saying the same thing Aether7 is saying when RTR came out. OMG, Shocks are worth so much of a box price everything will be worth nothing. Yet we saw, good cards that didn't get played much were cheap but cards that saw tons of Standard/Non-Rotating play were worth money because Shocks dropped to around $10 each. Also, many cards went up upon rotation. Some were surprises, but some like Jace were pretty safe bets.
So
Fetches are legacy staples unlike shocks.
Legacy has experienced a huge boom recently. Have you seen the price of blue duals?
The demand for fetches is going to outstrip almost every other card by about 10x.
I think what will most likely happen is that Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta will stay at $15-$20 while non-blue fetches and mythic rares take all the punches.
This is a much weaker bunch of mythic rares than any large set in recent memory, only just below Gatecrash.