Since they'll now be Modern Legal, I don't think they'll end up at $8-10 each while in standard, unless the set is massively over-drafted. Also, aren't they drafting less of this block then normal due to the structure of Khans? I thought it was triple Khans, then Khans x2/2nd set, then 2nd set x2/3rd set.
Well, let's start with the obvious. Onslaught fetchlands will command a premium due to scarcity and being a first run. Since they have new art, I expect foils of Onslaught fetchlands (and the associated judge foils) to fall no more than 15-20%. Normal ones will probably fall to around the 20-30 range, while these will be $10-15 pretty much for their entire duration in Standard.
Now, to discuss the impact on Zendikar fetchlands. Because these are substitute goods on the composite, Zendikar fetchlands will take a haircut - decks that used Zen fetches only because those were the only ones available will switch over, and those who prefer the Zen block ones can now use these as the inferior substitute. I think 30% drops in Zen fetchland prices are reasonable - I think they will still keep price tags in the 25-45 range though (as opposed to the 40-70 that they are now).
The real question is what archetypes will arise because of this being a thing in Modern now - the two most successful color combinations have both been enemy-colored - URx and BGx. Will other color combinations rise to prominence now? That is beyond my predictive power at the moment.
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Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
So, who want's to play the guessing game? Will the allied Fetches drop a lot or a little?
I think the the new KTK fetches will be at a disgusting $20 - $25 range at first, and when the dust settles, $27 - $22.
I think the Onslaught's will cool down to the $30 - $40 range, for those who want to keep it old school. Can one imagine a $40 drop barbecue of reprints?
I just can't see a Standard set being able to maintain 5 non-mythics any higher than $15, and that's if the rest of the set - including every other rare and mythic in the set - is trash. Not trash as in Born of the Gods or Dragon's Maze. I mean trash as in Fallen Empires level of mediocrity.
Simply put, after the supply crunch that always seems to happen at set release (i.e. after about two months), and for as long as the set remains in print, the average value of the cards in the pack must be no higher than the typical price that dealers (read: your local game stores) pay to buy product, by the Law of Zero Arbitrage - if a store can get a positive expected rate of return from cracking packs and selling the singles, they will do so.
There will be one fetchland in every 12 packs (10 in 121, for those who want the technical nuance). Assuming that every other rare in the set is worth $0.75 on average, and every mythic is worth $2, then in 121 packs, you can expect to get 10 fetchlands, 15 mythics, and 96 "other rares", for a total value of $174, plus the value of the fetchlands. Noting that 121 packs is roughly 3.5 boxes, and stores can sell product to us at $90 a box on the low end, it stands to reason that the maximum sustainable value of fetchlands is somewhere around ((90 * 3.5) - 174 = 141) / 10 = ~$14 per fetchland.
I just don't see a way for prices to go any higher than this barring massive supply crunches.
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Former Level 2 Judge (Retired / Renounced)
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
No way these hold $20+ price tag. Maybe in the first week, but it's the single biggest reason to get the latest standard set from WotC in a long time, far more than the thoughtseize reprint. It's good for the game, good for the new influx of players and it will be printed like no tomorrow. I am glad for the different art as well. I am a big believer that reprints for expensive cards and many cards should have different art.
If we are to believe all lands come in packs of 10 as stated by WotC, then yes. All prices will crash, alternate art, low print run will keep onslaught ones decently priced (see thoughtseize) but not sure on Zendikar pricing as they printed many more of them then they did Onslaught.
I am very happy for this reprint. Depending on the popularity and power of Khans, I predict these in the sub $10. Possibly lower if it's as popular as RtR. I'm definitely going to trade my Onslaught fetches for Khans. Premium in my favor? Yessir!
fetchlands will drop to $10-15 each. Aether7 and DriftingSkies are completely right.
These things will be reprinted like crazy as they should be. Wizards knows it doesn't have that many key eggs to crack. The reprint of the Onslaught fetches and their entry into modern is
a huge singular event that's been speculated on by magic fans for years. There have been countless posts and threads on this issue discussing it to no end. The point is,
its a big singular event and Wizards doesn't get very many of these.
They would be foolish not to reprint these things into oblivion and profit on sales of the new set as much as possible. If I had to guess, I would argue it's possible onslaught fetchland prices will go UNDER $10
even. Prices should be what shocklands are going for now.
also, be on the lookout for greater shocks to magic prices at large.
Reprints always shake up the speculators and horders, as these events bring to the forefront the very real fact that Wizards can reprint whatever it wants when it wants, which tends to curve the price increases by speculators.
I hope these price specs are dead on. My thoughts were quite conservative. BUT, when KTK is 3 years old, the prices will probably go back to what they are, but that is a looooong ways away.
I'm actually starting to think $10 is too low given how playable these are in modern and legacy.
We might see an effect where the rest of the sets cards no matter how good are warped around these 5 fetches. What would've been a $40 mythic planeswalker will now be a $15 card because so much product is going to be opened trying to find fetches. We could be facing 5x $20 rares and as we all know the price of the cards in a box always roughly evens out to the value of the box.
I just can't see a Standard set being able to maintain 5 non-mythics any higher than $15, and that's if the rest of the set - including every other rare and mythic in the set - is trash. Not trash as in Born of the Gods or Dragon's Maze. I mean trash as in Fallen Empires level of mediocrity.
Simply put, after the supply crunch that always seems to happen at set release (i.e. after about two months), and for as long as the set remains in print, the average value of the cards in the pack must be no higher than the typical price that dealers (read: your local game stores) pay to buy product, by the Law of Zero Arbitrage - if a store can get a positive expected rate of return from cracking packs and selling the singles, they will do so.
There will be one fetchland in every 12 packs (10 in 121, for those who want the technical nuance). Assuming that every other rare in the set is worth $0.75 on average, and every mythic is worth $2, then in 121 packs, you can expect to get 10 fetchlands, 15 mythics, and 96 "other rares", for a total value of $174, plus the value of the fetchlands. Noting that 121 packs is roughly 3.5 boxes, and stores can sell product to us at $90 a box on the low end, it stands to reason that the maximum sustainable value of fetchlands is somewhere around ((90 * 3.5) - 174 = 141) / 10 = ~$14 per fetchland.
I just don't see a way for prices to go any higher than this barring massive supply crunches.
Fetches ended up at ~12-14 last time they were in standard. Your math matches the data.
I'm actually starting to think $10 is too low given how playable these are in modern and legacy.
We might see an effect where the rest of the sets cards no matter how good are warped around these 5 fetches. What would've been a $40 mythic planeswalker will now be a $15 card because so much product is going to be opened trying to find fetches. We could be facing 5x $20 rares and as we all know the price of the cards in a box always roughly evens out to the value of the box.
I would agree with you if it wasn't for the surge in production we've seen from post RTR (especially Theros block). Stuff is just NOT holding value... $10-$15 seems much more likely with small time frames of some being <$10 and others barely going above $15 (maybe).
Actually after hearing all this hype and people declaring a huge uptick in drafting/opening packs, a low of < $10 could very easily be possible.
It's an instant speed 5/5 trampler for 4. Wtf do you people want seriously? It has applications in populate/ above the curve beats decks, or in Bant control/ flash. I seriously think anyone mad at this card for any reason other than losing an attacker to instant speed wurm, should go home and make their own awesome card game and leave the rest of us alone.
As long as people are willing to pay above $10 places like SCG will open cases by the truckload just because of how common they are and it being guaranteed profit.
Perhaps the math really does favour these being under $10. It just really depends how good the rest of the set is.
I'm horrified for my judge fetches. Sure, the price may not drop all that much on them, but the demand for them will be through the floor. I'll never move them without having to take a 20% cut in value, at least. They went from liquid assets to solid assets overnight.
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I play:
Block Tiny Leaders:
Theros Block / Anax & Cymede
Return to Ravnica Block / Vorel of the Hull Clade
Khans of Tarkir Block / Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest
I'm horrified for my judge fetches. Sure, the price may not drop all that much on them, but the demand for them will be through the floor. I'll never move them without having to take a 20% cut in value, at least. They went from liquid assets to solid assets overnight.
Anything not on the reserve list can have this happen. This was predicted by the masses. It was never IF, it was always WHEN. I do think most of us are surprised that WHEN is now and not another block away, but this is pure win. Prices will be high at the start so don't get sucked into paying too much. In 3-4 weeks they should level out quite a bit. In many ways, I hope the standard support isn't there for them, this will keep them affordable for budget players.
I'm horrified for my judge fetches. Sure, the price may not drop all that much on them, but the demand for them will be through the floor. I'll never move them without having to take a 20% cut in value, at least. They went from liquid assets to solid assets overnight.
Perhaps you should have thought more carefully about the gamble you were taking by holding these as an investment instead of liquidating thme right away and investing the profits into something else (like reserved cards or actual stock).
It's a drag when your collection takes a hit in value (though this is the cost of a sustainable game), but to experience horror indicates that your expectations were not realistic and/or that you are not actually comfortable with the level of risk you are taking when you tie your money up in cards.
So according to what Maro has said in the past about now printing the entire cycle of lands over the course of a block, shouldn't we see the ZEN fetches printed in either of the two sets following KTK?
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https://twitter.com/maro254/status/505951744904265728/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Marshall_LR/status/505951281488203778/photo/1
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Now, to discuss the impact on Zendikar fetchlands. Because these are substitute goods on the composite, Zendikar fetchlands will take a haircut - decks that used Zen fetches only because those were the only ones available will switch over, and those who prefer the Zen block ones can now use these as the inferior substitute. I think 30% drops in Zen fetchland prices are reasonable - I think they will still keep price tags in the 25-45 range though (as opposed to the 40-70 that they are now).
The real question is what archetypes will arise because of this being a thing in Modern now - the two most successful color combinations have both been enemy-colored - URx and BGx. Will other color combinations rise to prominence now? That is beyond my predictive power at the moment.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
I think the the new KTK fetches will be at a disgusting $20 - $25 range at first, and when the dust settles, $27 - $22.
I think the Onslaught's will cool down to the $30 - $40 range, for those who want to keep it old school. Can one imagine a $40 drop barbecue of reprints?
Simply put, after the supply crunch that always seems to happen at set release (i.e. after about two months), and for as long as the set remains in print, the average value of the cards in the pack must be no higher than the typical price that dealers (read: your local game stores) pay to buy product, by the Law of Zero Arbitrage - if a store can get a positive expected rate of return from cracking packs and selling the singles, they will do so.
There will be one fetchland in every 12 packs (10 in 121, for those who want the technical nuance). Assuming that every other rare in the set is worth $0.75 on average, and every mythic is worth $2, then in 121 packs, you can expect to get 10 fetchlands, 15 mythics, and 96 "other rares", for a total value of $174, plus the value of the fetchlands. Noting that 121 packs is roughly 3.5 boxes, and stores can sell product to us at $90 a box on the low end, it stands to reason that the maximum sustainable value of fetchlands is somewhere around ((90 * 3.5) - 174 = 141) / 10 = ~$14 per fetchland.
I just don't see a way for prices to go any higher than this barring massive supply crunches.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
$30+ for rares and you're dreaming.
These will be $10. I will be drafting every week to make sure I get some and so will everybody else.
Shouldn't the impact on the Zen fetches be the assumption that they will, almost certainly, be reprinted in this block?
R Norin the Wary: I've Got a Bad Feeling About This
UG Thrasios & Kydele: Knowledge is Power
RG Borborygmos Enraged: The Breaking of the World
BG The Gitrog Monster: All Glory to the Hypnotoad
WUR Zedruu the Greathearted: Endless Possibilities, One Outcome
WBG Karador, Ghost Chieftain: What's Dead May Never Die
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Interesting times ahead
But that's for another thread discussion.
I am very happy for this reprint. Depending on the popularity and power of Khans, I predict these in the sub $10. Possibly lower if it's as popular as RtR. I'm definitely going to trade my Onslaught fetches for Khans. Premium in my favor? Yessir!
These things will be reprinted like crazy as they should be. Wizards knows it doesn't have that many key eggs to crack. The reprint of the Onslaught fetches and their entry into modern is
a huge singular event that's been speculated on by magic fans for years. There have been countless posts and threads on this issue discussing it to no end. The point is,
its a big singular event and Wizards doesn't get very many of these.
They would be foolish not to reprint these things into oblivion and profit on sales of the new set as much as possible. If I had to guess, I would argue it's possible onslaught fetchland prices will go UNDER $10
even. Prices should be what shocklands are going for now.
also, be on the lookout for greater shocks to magic prices at large.
Reprints always shake up the speculators and horders, as these events bring to the forefront the very real fact that Wizards can reprint whatever it wants when it wants, which tends to curve the price increases by speculators.
We might see an effect where the rest of the sets cards no matter how good are warped around these 5 fetches. What would've been a $40 mythic planeswalker will now be a $15 card because so much product is going to be opened trying to find fetches. We could be facing 5x $20 rares and as we all know the price of the cards in a box always roughly evens out to the value of the box.
Fetches ended up at ~12-14 last time they were in standard. Your math matches the data.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
Wizards doesn't want these cards to be worth anything which is something I heartily agree with.
I would agree with you if it wasn't for the surge in production we've seen from post RTR (especially Theros block). Stuff is just NOT holding value... $10-$15 seems much more likely with small time frames of some being <$10 and others barely going above $15 (maybe).
Actually after hearing all this hype and people declaring a huge uptick in drafting/opening packs, a low of < $10 could very easily be possible.
As long as people are willing to pay above $10 places like SCG will open cases by the truckload just because of how common they are and it being guaranteed profit.
Perhaps the math really does favour these being under $10. It just really depends how good the rest of the set is.
Theros Block / Anax & Cymede
Return to Ravnica Block / Vorel of the Hull Clade
Khans of Tarkir Block / Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest
Peasant:
Kuldotha Red
Commander:
Maga, Traitor to Mortals
Anything not on the reserve list can have this happen. This was predicted by the masses. It was never IF, it was always WHEN. I do think most of us are surprised that WHEN is now and not another block away, but this is pure win. Prices will be high at the start so don't get sucked into paying too much. In 3-4 weeks they should level out quite a bit. In many ways, I hope the standard support isn't there for them, this will keep them affordable for budget players.
Perhaps you should have thought more carefully about the gamble you were taking by holding these as an investment instead of liquidating thme right away and investing the profits into something else (like reserved cards or actual stock).
It's a drag when your collection takes a hit in value (though this is the cost of a sustainable game), but to experience horror indicates that your expectations were not realistic and/or that you are not actually comfortable with the level of risk you are taking when you tie your money up in cards.
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