There is a supply crunch right now. Mire got down to 11, Green ones got down to 13, and Strand/Delta got down to 15-16, 17-18, respectively. They've gone up since because supply is running out on the first wave. Wait to buy if you can. (I bought in on Mire at 11, the only one I was confident wasn't going to go much lower.)
This is pretty much what happened with Zen too. It wasn't till after the initial wave that fetch prices dropped below $10, but it's inevitable. Especially when Zen's first printing had random "priceless treasures" mixed in as well.
I think you are just unlucky based on a small sample size. I got 1 in 6 packs, but that doesn't mean that fetchlands are super common. If you opened a few thousand packs, it would almost certainly balance out on account of the Law of Large Numbers / Central Limit Theorem.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Former Level 2 Judge (Retired / Renounced)
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
So there's a lot of talk about how far the prices will fall in the near future, but how long will it take before demand starts to outweigh supply and we see a surge similar to what Zendikar fetchlands saw? A year after rotation? Two years?
It will probably be quite a while before these jump from the 10ish dollars they'll stabilize at due to supply taking quite a while to dry up for these. At least a year after rotation if not 3. Depends on a lot of variables really/it's nigh impossible to calculate the number 1 variable being whether magic continues to grow.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Yawgmoth," Freyalise whispered as she set the bomb, "now you will pay for your treachery."
So much panic when the track record has been laid (and the numbers are larger then ever with regards to the reprint numbers, don't be fooled folks WOTC is printing money on this one...and they won't stop until the printers start to smoke).
In this situation you were seriously unlucky (or not being honest about your claim) as that's one of the worse rations I've read on the topic (that beats all I remember about the ZEN experience to be frank), last report I received was 18 packs reaping 4 fetchlands and 2 mythics off the vendors wall (individuals).
Never the less we have the past to balance the future so to speak. Just think for a micro second on how many languages, how many countries, how many sold out preorders (how many mammals that blow their funds on the trust-fund format known as Standard, rhetorical)....there will be more of these fetches than even SCG can hide/stash away with hopes of spiking pockets in the near future....unless someone starts burning copies by the pound all will be ok if you have a few bucks to spend (Delta from $109 SCG to $18 bucks on Ebay, even if Delta hits $25 there's nothing to ***** about on the topic).
It will probably be quite a while before these jump from the 10ish dollars they'll stabilize at due to supply taking quite a while to dry up for these. At least a year after rotation if not 3. Depends on a lot of variables really/it's nigh impossible to calculate the number 1 variable being whether magic continues to grow.
Check the historical data: Misty Rainforest, from around launch (October 2009) to today. It started off high (launch), dropped below $10 by January (Worldwake release), and stayed there until rotation in October 2011 (Innistrad launch). It gained slowly, but didn't really start picking up until October of 2012 (Return to Ravnica), where it had a steady (and rather steep) climb until very recently.
You can expect that the current batch of fetches will probably follow a similar pattern. Prices will fall to their lowest around when the second Khans set hit the shelves (market saturation of the first set), and then they will likely start to rebound around rotation time.
I think you are just unlucky based on a small sample size. I got 1 in 6 packs, but that doesn't mean that fetchlands are super common. If you opened a few thousand packs, it would almost certainly balance out on account of the Law of Large Numbers / Central Limit Theorem.
You know that one kid in math class that always raises his hands and says "When are we ever going to use this in real life?"
It will probably be quite a while before these jump from the 10ish dollars they'll stabilize at due to supply taking quite a while to dry up for these. At least a year after rotation if not 3. Depends on a lot of variables really/it's nigh impossible to calculate the number 1 variable being whether magic continues to grow.
Check the historical data: Misty Rainforest, from around launch (October 2009) to today. It started off high (launch), dropped below $10 by January (Worldwake release), and stayed there until rotation in October 2011 (Innistrad launch). It gained slowly, but didn't really start picking up until October of 2012 (Return to Ravnica), where it had a steady (and rather steep) climb until very recently.
You can expect that the current batch of fetches will probably follow a similar pattern. Prices will fall to their lowest around when the second Khans set hit the shelves (market saturation of the first set), and then they will likely start to rebound around rotation time.
I don't know why people don't listen to this. If anything, fetchlands will go LOWER than the historical Misty Rainforest trend which hit 10.
This is a reprint. Misty Rainforest was not. Current shocklands are sub $10 as we speak.
Furthermore Zendikar fetchlands are a partial substitute for existing fetches.
The Allied fetches are a Reprint. But because of the existing Zendikar supply, it's more than just a first time reprint.
Analytically, I would expect the reprint of the Allied fetchlands to behave somewhere between a first and second reprint.
If fetches are higher right now due to demand, it probably to do with standard. But once standard players more or less have their supply, once their good, prices of the allied fetches will fall.
Yeah, the inflated value on these things right now is why I won't trade for the Windswept Heaths I need for my post-rotation deck, except to trade the other 2 fetch lands I pulled at prerelease for them. I'll just wait until later in the year to have the deck I want.
Reprints the one card that people point to when saying that art objectifies women.
Well done Wizards.
Liliana does not objectify women in any way at all. We have gotten to a point in our society that every single picture of a women must be objectifying a women in some negative way......blah blah blah.. That is not the case. (((Sarcasm)))Picture of a girl drinking a milk shake, must be sex related and putting women down, picture of girl sitting on a beach, picture of a girl driving a car, picture of a girl on the moon at a new space station.)))
You have a picture of an attractive strong power women who girls dress up as for anime conventions. What more do you want? The picture is fine, happy to see a reprint. Sick of of seeing people claim that everything in existence must be putting women down. Then all I have to do is replace the word "women" with anything else to get the same mentality; fish, cats, arabs, blacks, jews, men, environment, whites, chinese, old people, etc. It doesn't matter what word I put in. Stop sucking life out of everything man. That artwork of her is awesome. Stop putting stuff down man. Just stop. If the picture was really as negative as you claim she would totally nude, in a kitchen, making sandwiches and giving blow jobs. Her abilities would be horrible as well. +1 do nothing -2 do nothing -6 do nothing. Instead liliana of the veil is an amazing planeswalker comparable to jace, the mind sculpter with great art to appreciate.
My suggestion listen to some comedy radio for a while, pandora is free, youtube is free there is something out there for you. ***** go make fun of somebody. The whole world is so serious and campaigning for some cause, or someones rights, everything is a hate crime, racist, sexist. blah blah blah.
"O no mcdonalds must be slandering a hate crime against skinny people every time they make a big mac." hahaha jeeze You're just someone perpetuating another groups negative perspective that they've made you believe is correct. Look at the picture for a hour and tell me what's wrong with it? I don't see anything.
I have heard vague rumors of a moustache-dispensing vending machine in a distant laundromat, across the street from a tattoo parlor. However, this information is shaky, and time is of the essence.
I doubt it. Once redemptions hit, expect them to take a big haircut. Right now, what's been opened so far is just a fraction of what will be by March or so. It's only been two weeks; give it some time.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Former Level 2 Judge (Retired / Renounced)
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
So far with tons of boxes opened, no drop in fetches. Could the demand from new modern players keep them inflated?
They've begun to taper off slightly. I think Wooded Foothills has dropped close to a dollar since release. Tons of boxes have been opened yes but it's only a small percentage of the boxes that will be opened before Fate Reforged comes out.
It's the 11th of October/supply hasn't hit the fan yet. Wait a while. In 3 months you'll be paying 7 euros for a windswept heath or something. Right now is when I'm just dumping any fetches I get. Patience is a virtue for a reason.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"Yawgmoth," Freyalise whispered as she set the bomb, "now you will pay for your treachery."
WotC apparently has a new allocation method for sealed product where stores get their supply choked off at the distribution level. They can order so much in a given time from distributors and that's it. From what I understand the endgame of this strategy is to increase the value of sets to encourage online box sales at MSRP.
These singles prices are the result of an artificial supply crunch and nothing more. It will correct itself eventually, but it will most likely be slower than with previous sets. MODO redemptions will have the most effect if anyone still uses that program anymore.
EDH/Commander is a social format, right? So why don't people use their social skills to discuss what they like and don't like, instead of adopting a list with 60+ banned cards?
WotC apparently has a new allocation method for sealed product where stores get their supply choked off at the distribution level. They can order so much in a given time from distributors and that's it. From what I understand the endgame of this strategy is to increase the value of sets to encourage online box sales at MSRP.
These singles prices are the result of an artificial supply crunch and nothing more. It will correct itself eventually, but it will most likely be slower than with previous sets. MODO redemptions will have the most effect if anyone still uses that program anymore.
Yeah it's a bit weird. My LGS gets boxes and then they sell out the same day. I thought it was a bit strange that they couldn't just order more to fill demand.
They pretty much have to keep enough product for FNM prize support and draft which doesn't leave much.
I just thought it was something to do with being in Australia.
If what you say is true prices are going to linger at an artificially high level for a while.
WotC apparently has a new allocation method for sealed product where stores get their supply choked off at the distribution level. They can order so much in a given time from distributors and that's it. From what I understand the endgame of this strategy is to increase the value of sets to encourage online box sales at MSRP.
These singles prices are the result of an artificial supply crunch and nothing more. It will correct itself eventually, but it will most likely be slower than with previous sets. MODO redemptions will have the most effect if anyone still uses that program anymore.
I absolutely do not believe this. Wizards has no incentive to restrict supply here. It's in their best financial interest to move as much product as possible, not to create artificial scarcity to boost the secondary market.
WotC apparently has a new allocation method for sealed product where stores get their supply choked off at the distribution level. They can order so much in a given time from distributors and that's it. From what I understand the endgame of this strategy is to increase the value of sets to encourage online box sales at MSRP.
These singles prices are the result of an artificial supply crunch and nothing more. It will correct itself eventually, but it will most likely be slower than with previous sets. MODO redemptions will have the most effect if anyone still uses that program anymore.
I absolutely do not believe this. Wizards has no incentive to restrict supply here. It's in their best financial interest to move as much product as possible, not to create artificial scarcity to boost the secondary market.
It's not as simple as just trying to boost the secondary market. They're trying to discourage online sellers from selling sealed product below MSRP and undercutting brick-and-mortar stores.
EDH/Commander is a social format, right? So why don't people use their social skills to discuss what they like and don't like, instead of adopting a list with 60+ banned cards?
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Current post- Grand Prix KC Modern Postmortem (7/7/13)
These things are everywhere after the weekend.
Not rarer than any other rares. No need to panic.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
Focus: Omnath, Locus of Mana EDH.
Currently Playing:
Retired
The rain is coming. The drought will be over soon. Patience.
In this situation you were seriously unlucky (or not being honest about your claim) as that's one of the worse rations I've read on the topic (that beats all I remember about the ZEN experience to be frank), last report I received was 18 packs reaping 4 fetchlands and 2 mythics off the vendors wall (individuals).
Never the less we have the past to balance the future so to speak. Just think for a micro second on how many languages, how many countries, how many sold out preorders (how many mammals that blow their funds on the trust-fund format known as Standard, rhetorical)....there will be more of these fetches than even SCG can hide/stash away with hopes of spiking pockets in the near future....unless someone starts burning copies by the pound all will be ok if you have a few bucks to spend (Delta from $109 SCG to $18 bucks on Ebay, even if Delta hits $25 there's nothing to ***** about on the topic).
S.M.
Check the historical data: Misty Rainforest, from around launch (October 2009) to today. It started off high (launch), dropped below $10 by January (Worldwake release), and stayed there until rotation in October 2011 (Innistrad launch). It gained slowly, but didn't really start picking up until October of 2012 (Return to Ravnica), where it had a steady (and rather steep) climb until very recently.
You can expect that the current batch of fetches will probably follow a similar pattern. Prices will fall to their lowest around when the second Khans set hit the shelves (market saturation of the first set), and then they will likely start to rebound around rotation time.
You know that one kid in math class that always raises his hands and says "When are we ever going to use this in real life?"
This is it folks. Stay in school kids.
I don't know why people don't listen to this. If anything, fetchlands will go LOWER than the historical Misty Rainforest trend which hit 10.
This is a reprint. Misty Rainforest was not. Current shocklands are sub $10 as we speak.
Furthermore Zendikar fetchlands are a partial substitute for existing fetches.
The Allied fetches are a Reprint. But because of the existing Zendikar supply, it's more than just a first time reprint.
Analytically, I would expect the reprint of the Allied fetchlands to behave somewhere between a first and second reprint.
If fetches are higher right now due to demand, it probably to do with standard. But once standard players more or less have their supply, once their good, prices of the allied fetches will fall.
(I kinda wish wiki had a good article on cross elasticity of supply)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_elasticity_of_demand
I think it'll drop later.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
They've begun to taper off slightly. I think Wooded Foothills has dropped close to a dollar since release. Tons of boxes have been opened yes but it's only a small percentage of the boxes that will be opened before Fate Reforged comes out.
Credit to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the Avatar & Miraculous Recovery for the Banner.
My 540 Card Cube (WIP)
Currently Playing:
Retired
Currently Playing:
Retired
These singles prices are the result of an artificial supply crunch and nothing more. It will correct itself eventually, but it will most likely be slower than with previous sets. MODO redemptions will have the most effect if anyone still uses that program anymore.
Yeah it's a bit weird. My LGS gets boxes and then they sell out the same day. I thought it was a bit strange that they couldn't just order more to fill demand.
They pretty much have to keep enough product for FNM prize support and draft which doesn't leave much.
I just thought it was something to do with being in Australia.
If what you say is true prices are going to linger at an artificially high level for a while.
I absolutely do not believe this. Wizards has no incentive to restrict supply here. It's in their best financial interest to move as much product as possible, not to create artificial scarcity to boost the secondary market.
Rancored Elf will cancel your order if prices go up. Read about him and other shady vendors here.
My Trade Thread!
It's not as simple as just trying to boost the secondary market. They're trying to discourage online sellers from selling sealed product below MSRP and undercutting brick-and-mortar stores.