No idea why this doesn't have a running tally or price speculation thread, but whatever.
Obviously the set has a lot of high value reprints, at all rarities even, with things like Brainstorm and Swords to Plowshares at common, up to Stifle and Exploration at rare, Deed and Wake at mythic.
But there are also a good number of new cards, such as Dack, that are fetching some nice prices, and may hold or fall. Curious about some of the others too, don't really see a list compiled of the money in the set.
For those interested, here's the current set breakdown at the moment. All cards listed are based on TCG Mid Prices as of the time of this post, and do not reflect any of my intuition or future predictions. Cards in BOLD represent those appearing in Conspiracy at Mythic Rare. Prices are rounded to the nearest half-dollar except for cards under $5, which are rounded to the nearest quarter.
Rares & Mythics:
1) Dack Fayden - 34
2) Stifle - 17
3) Exploration - 13.5
4) Council's Judgment - 12 5) Pernicious Deed - 11 6) Mirari's Wake - 10
7) Misdirection - 10
8) Reflecting Pool - 7.5 9) Muzzio, Visionary Architect - 7 10) Marchesa, the Black Rose - 7
11) Edric, Spymaster of Trest - 6 12) Hydra Omnivore - 5 13) Scourge of the Throne - 4
14) Magister of Worth - 4
15) Vedalken Orrery - 4
16) Grenzo, Dungeon Warden - 3.75 17) Brago, King Eternal - 3.5
18) Basandra, Battle Seraph - 3
19) Dack's Duplicate - 3 20) Coercive Portal - 3
Notable Foil Prices:
Dack Fayden - $140
Brainstorm - $70 (!)
Exploration - $57
Stifle - $55
Misdirection - $50
Council's Judgement - $40
Pernicious Deed - $40
Marchesa, the Black Rose - $40
Muzzio, Visionary Architect - $32
Scourge of the Throne - $28
Reflecting Pool - $27
Mirari's Wake - $22
Brago, King Eternal - $20
Hydra Omnivore - $20
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden - $18
Selvala, Explorer Returned - $17
Swords to Plowshares - $15
Edric, Spymaster of Trest - $15
Vedalken Orrery - $14
For obvious reasons, the "Draft Matters" cycle and the Conspiracies, including the rare ones, sell for effectively bulk status. Whether that changes in response to an influx of cube builders/players remains to be seen.
One note that I can give is that a lot of the money in this set is concentrated in the foils, in particular the Legacy reprints, Dack, and the new EDH generals created for the set. Given the sheer number of packs being opened, though, I would expect the foil Brainstorm to get cut in half to the $30 range - I think it's not really understood just how limited the supply of Foil Brainstorms was before the Conspiracy release, though this might be mitigated to the extent that people don't like the Masques art. A large part about the value of the set concerns itself with these questions: How much will be opened (and is the supply limited)?, What is the foil ratio in this set?, How much does Cube take off and send set-value into the Draft Matters cards? Whoever can answer these questions can make some reasonable predictions.
Sure, why not ;). Prices are taken from the lower end of current tcgplayer prices. Box values will be an approximation with the assumption that there are the normal 4.5 mythics/31.5 rares per box, 36 packs per box, etc. I will be happy to update any information as needed to correct for incorrect assumptions therein.
Mythics:
Dack Fayden: $28
Mirari's Wake: $8
Pernicious Deed: $8
Marchesa, the Black Rose: $5.50
Muzzio, Visionary Architect: $5
Hydra Omnivore: $3.50
Scourge of the Throne: $3
Brago, King Eternal: $2.50
Coercive Portal: $2.50
Everything else is less than $2
Rares:
Stifle: $12
Exploration: $10
Council's Judgment: $9
Misdirection: $7
Reflecting Pool: $5.50
Edric Spymaster of Trest: $3.50
Vedalken Orrery: $3
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden: $3
Magister of Worth: $2
Dack's Duplicate: $2
Rout: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Uncommon:
Swords to Plowshares: $2
Squirrel Nest: $1.50
Fact or Fiction: $1
Everything else is less than $1
Common:
Brainstorm: $1
Reign of the Pit: $1
Sakura Tribe Elder: .50
Everything else is less than .50
Total Set Value Breakdown:
Mythics: $69 (11 mythics)
Rares: $75 (35 normal rares approx.)
Uncommon/common set: $12
Total set value: $156
Overall average box value breakdown:
Mythics: $6.33/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $28.50
Rares: $2.14/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $67.50
Uncommon/commons: $12 x 1.8 = $21
Foils: $10
Total overall average box value: $127 ($120)
It should be noted that the box value is an approximation without knowing the exact distribution specifics, but I think I got it close to correct :). The foils/common/uncommon information is based on limited data at this point as you can probably imagine. Given some of the nicer foils available with this set plus plenty of brand new cards and many in foil for the first time, I figure the foil value a little higher at $10 to be a fair estimate for now. As for the commons/uncommons, I normally look at completed playset information on ebay for complete uncommon/common sets x4 for the set. Since there is limited information there, that number is also an estimate. So for the sake of adjustment there, I put $120 in ( ). All in all, a decently looking value to start, time will likely bring that down like it does for most sets though.
I think the foil breakdown is very helpful. I passed a foil rare conspiracy only card, not thinking about the cube implications. Foil Misdirection though!
I drafted this set 3x yesterday and it is excellent fun. I really wonder at the popularity though...my store isn't offering individual packs for sale, opting to reserve it all for in-store drafts or whole box sales. The first draft the store did for the normal draft rate, and then after that the owner shifted the price to just $10 for a draft, no prize support. It's hard to award prizes in a game where it matters how many friends you have playing in your group, and the next to last person standing effectively gets to decide who wins the game. It can actually turn a little ugly instead of fun. Taking the prize support out made it a lot more laid back and fun. Very popular with the people that showed up and cracking these packs is almost as fun as cracking MM. But...no appeal to most of the tournament players ATM. My hardcore buds may jump in for one or two of these, but that's about it. If this doesn't get a second print run...these prices may be horrendous in a year. Especially those EDH generals.
I think the foil breakdown is very helpful. I passed a foil rare conspiracy only card, not thinking about the cube implications. Foil Misdirection though!
I drafted this set 3x yesterday and it is excellent fun. I really wonder at the popularity though...my store isn't offering individual packs for sale, opting to reserve it all for in-store drafts or whole box sales. The first draft the store did for the normal draft rate, and then after that the owner shifted the price to just $10 for a draft, no prize support. It's hard to award prizes in a game where it matters how many friends you have playing in your group, and the next to last person standing effectively gets to decide who wins the game. It can actually turn a little ugly instead of fun. Taking the prize support out made it a lot more laid back and fun. Very popular with the people that showed up and cracking these packs is almost as fun as cracking MM. But...no appeal to most of the tournament players ATM. My hardcore buds may jump in for one or two of these, but that's about it. If this doesn't get a second print run...these prices may be horrendous in a year. Especially those EDH generals.
I agree. This seems to have had a lukewarm reception locally because the Legacy crowd is so small. Though there is a large amount of EDH players in my area, they can easily get 1 single copy of the cards they need with the purchase of just 1 box, mythics excluded. To me, it feels like drafting this set is going to slow down considerably by the end of the month and obviously end altogether when M15 hits the shelves.
Personally, I enjoy drafting this set as it's good fun!
Thanks for the price tallys, I figured the prices would tank but not by this much only 3 days after release. Still
seems like the best set to pick if your lgs lets you choose which set you want as prize, both long term and short term.
This card will be the worst rare in RTR and less remembered than skaab ruibator in three months. It struggles to be on the same power level as mass of ghouls, even in limited.
That its not simply "not good enough for competitive", or underpowered. But that this is offensively bad, the real stinker tier.
Still, my best evaluation is that its approximately on the same power level as a 4/4 for 4 vanilla beater.
Even with a large print run, I expect the playable foils in the set to hold value fairly well in the long run. Something like a foil exploration is going to be worth something down the road. I'd also expect the EDH generals stay fairly popular long term. I'd wait until just before M15 when the set has been drafted as much as it's going to be, and I'd start trying to pick up the new conspiracy stuff with EDH and Legacy play-ability and I'd look for foils specifically.
Prices are taken from the lower end of current tcgplayer prices.
Mythics:
Dack Fayden: $24
Mirari's Wake: $7
Pernicious Deed: $7
Marchesa, the Black Rose: $5
Muzzio, Visionary Architect: $5
Hydra Omnivore: $3
Scourge of the Throne: $3
Coercive Portal: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Rares:
Stifle: $10
Exploration: $9
Council's Judgment: $8
Misdirection: $6
Reflecting Pool: $5
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden: $2.50
Edric Spymaster of Trest: $2
Vedalken Orrery: $2
Dack's Duplicate: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Uncommon:
Swords to Plowshares: $1.50
Squirrel Nest: $1
Everything else is less than $1
Common:
Brainstorm: .75
Sakura Tribe Elder: .50
Everything else is less than .50
Total Set Value Breakdown:
Mythics: $58
Rares: $65
Uncommon/common set: $10
Total set value: $133
Overall average box value breakdown:
Mythics: $5.80/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $26
Rares: $1.85/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $58
Uncommon/commons: $10 x 1.8 = $18
Foils: $8
Total overall average box value: $110
Quick update as the prices continue to settle as more of the singles become available in the secondary market. While the box value dropped from the $125 or so it was at down to $110 now, it should be noted that this set is still the best value for currently available in-print sets right at the moment. I imagine as we go out further, as with all sets, that the average box value will drop. For now though, I suggest having fun and drafting the set when you can and hoping for some nice pulls in the process :). Enjoy.
Hmm, is this a good opportunity? There are some pretty good cards that were reprinted in this set, and some of those seem awfully low. These specifically:
Their prices were high to begin with because they were hard to get. Right now, they're not hard to get. Conspiracy is nowhere near as hard to get as Modern Masters either, so the supply is going to be there for quite a bit. The only thing that I would even think of buying into is stifle, since it's the only card in the list that sees more than a marginal amount of play.
Hmm, is this a good opportunity? There are some pretty good cards that were reprinted in this set, and some of those seem awfully low. These specifically:
These seem like awfully good cards for the price. Do you all think these are good spec targets?
They are good prices for players who want to play them. But, there is nothing to suggest that any of these cards will be worth more until the set is long gone. For the following analysis, I use Return to Ravnica as a baseline because it's a recent set (#1), Mythic era set (#2), and popular (#3). Those three factors are important when comparing old cards to new reprints.
Stifle - Not really played in that many decks. Had it been printed in RTR as a Rare, it'd be $5 tops.
Exploration - I think that this one might have been $10 in RTR just because the effect in Standard is good enough.
Council's Judgment - It's a non-abusable Oblivion Ring 90% of the time. I could see it being $10 if standard legal, but it's still 3 mana for sorcery speed removal.
Marchesa - My gut tells me she'll be like Kaalia or Wanderer in price since it looks like a lot of people want to jump on her train... like Nekusar the Mindrazer... a $1.50 card. Basically, she will be played and people in EDH will want her. But, because she is a recent print and easy enough to get ahold of, she'll be way cheaper than my intuition says she should. $6 is about right then.
Pernicious Deed - This card would see a lot of standard play so the RTR thing isn't quite going to work. It's old and even at Mythic the total printed supply will probably double and the demand won't be going up because of anything outside of natural growth to the game. $7-$8 sounds right.
Edric - Lots of reprinting, somewhat popular, yet there aren't that many people who need one now. They all own them already.
It's not as bad a speculation target as it may seem initially. In 1 vs 1 EDH it basically reads "draw one extra card during your upkeep". So basically a 1 sided howling mine... but at twice the cost. When you consider there will not be a ton of foils of it running around... it could do well. I don't think it will reach staple status but as an artifact it can fit in any deck. I guess a lot depends on what the foils were going for which I don't know. I can just see the argument for it if the price was cheap enough.
EDIT: Thanks for the pricing Uldan... At $15... that is not terrible... but more than I'd want to gamble on it for... at $50... no way in heck.
Wow, set value is dropping FAST.
And since this is unlike most sets in that it will be printed in monstrous numbers, for as long as Wizards wants and for as long as there's any demand for it, expect that to come down even faster and further than most sets do.
A true devaluation of the secondary market, en masse. Very interesting to watch from an economic/investing standpoint, wow.
Wizards profits huge. Selling ink on cardboard for higher prices than they've ever been able to charge before - profits way up! It's like being able to legally print twenty dollar bills all day long.
Older players/collectors (anyone with cards) lose.
Newer/younger players/collectors win (the stuff they need is cheaper now), and generally aren't able to understand why everybody else is upset.
End result: Wizards makes record profits off the backs of their loyal collector and player base, while the younger and newer majority of players applauds, ensuring this will keep happening.
Wow, set value is dropping FAST.
And since this is unlike most sets in that it will be printed in monstrous numbers, for as long as Wizards wants and for as long as there's any demand for it, expect that to come down even faster and further than most sets do.
A true devaluation of the secondary market, en masse. Very interesting to watch from an economic/investing standpoint, wow.
Wizards profits huge. Selling ink on cardboard for higher prices than they've ever been able to charge before - profits way up! It's like being able to legally print twenty dollar bills all day long.
Older players/collectors (anyone with cards) lose.
Newer/younger players/collectors win (the stuff they need is cheaper now), and generally aren't able to understand why everybody else is upset.
End result: Wizards makes record profits off the backs of their loyal collector and player base, while the younger and newer majority of players applauds, ensuring this will keep happening.
Wizards has made it abundantly clear that if you're looking to put money into cards without fear of reprints, look to the reserved list. Are that many people really sitting on hordes of Stifles, Deeds and Explorations that this set is ruining their collections? Conspiracy will come and go, and over time the reprinted cards will tick upwards again - at least the cards worth having. I honestly feel like some people would rather Magic just go belly up and see the game die already.
No one wants the game to go belly up. lol. What people want is newer players to EARN their collections. When I first started playing the game I didn't expect to be playing Extended/Legacy, didn't even know what the hell that was to be honest. I was 13 years old. What's wrong with newer players to GRADUALLY build into Modern/Legacy, not just demand cards get reprinted and totally slight older more loyal players who have been playing the game for 10+ years. I agree with reprints, but honestly, for me Zendikar was not even that long ago, and people are already crying about reprints. You could have bought them for 10 dollers, literally before they rotated. The same will happen to shocklands, remember when they were 30$? What happens in 6 months, reprint them AGAIN? ..and again..and again?
Im not saying everyone needs to be appeased, but as Wizards gets rid of things such as Player Rewards (remember that?) older more loyal players feel less and less rewarded for their loyalty by having their collection feel less and less "earned". Again, I agree with reprinting things, but it seems now every set or every promotional set like Conspiracy HAS to have reprints, or no one will buy it/complain.
Earn their collections? Seriously? What right do you have to dictate how new players get to build their collections? A new player can buy into the $500 or whatever it would cost for a playset of Conspiracy, and you know what they'd have? About 1/50th the value of most serious Legacy players, and nowhere remotely close to building a mid- to high-value Legacy deck, even through trades. I've been playing Magic for 20 years, have an extensive eternal collection, and Conspiracy doesn't "slight" me in the... well, slightest. I see eternal staples with cool new art, an interesting draft format, and a fun place to put some spare Magic dollars to bust packs that aren't just another Standard set. What excites me even more is that new players can crack a few Legacy staples to at least get themselves started. Any serious eternal player knows darn well that the cards in Conspiracy, nice as they are, don't even begin to scratch the surface of what's needed to play Legacy.
I'd like to say I'm a Magic "loyalist" too, as long as I've been playing. But not much of my money goes back to WotC directly at this point, and hasn't for years. It goes mostly to eBayers, collectors like me as we buy/sell cards we've been sitting on for ages and pass in and out of the game as real life intersects. Should I really be offended that a young, new player that could practically be my child is able to buy Explorations for $10?
I just want people to have the cards they want to play with. I haven't earned my $10,000 collection so much as bought $2,000 worth of cards that went up in value over the last 5 years - protecting my investment is what I do with investments, not game pieces.
In other words, Go Wizards! You made a few stupidly expensive cards accessible to a bunch of people who couldn't drop $30 on an Exploration. Good. You have a good product that people want so you made it available to them. Good.
Here is the thing when it comes to my view on reprints. So long as you are appropriately diversified in your collection, reprints should not really significantly impact you overall. I know my collection was and still is quite massive. As some cards go up, some get reprinted and drop some, as some get reprinted, others that work well with them that don't get reprinted go up because demand increases due to the cards they go with now being cheaper. Just like when you invest in stocks and such, its important to diversify. While I may, like many people who have the reprinted cards, wish I had offloaded them sooner, you just sort of have to roll with the punches and try to look at things from an overall standpoint rather than focusing on just the cards that have dropped. Wizards tends to be careful about how they reprint cards, and they do so slowly. Modern Masters was probably the closest thing to a mass reprint of good cards from a format that we have ever really seen. Most sets, even conspiracy don't have a ton of good (Valuable) cards reprinted in them. A few sure, but they tend to carefully spread things out as to keep overall stability to the market. New players are not entitled to cheap cards just as old players are not entitled to their cards always going up in value or remaining stable over time (barring the reserved list). My original method when I got into magic was a simple one. I was set on collecting 4 of every magic set printed from when I started on (which for me was Revised to whatever the current set was and I kept up with that for each new magic set). Obviously things pre-revised can be difficult (which was why I avoided those at first, myself, even back in the day). The simpler way of course is simply to buy what you need for your decks, and not worry too much about the occasional reprint.
As for conspiracy in general I think the set is fine. It is a well setup set for drafting purposes and has enough value in it to make it worth it for people who are doing it hoping to get their money back out of the process at the end to be able to enjoy as well.
I just want people to have the cards they want to play with. I haven't earned my $10,000 collection so much as bought $2,000 worth of cards that went up in value over the last 5 years - protecting my investment is what I do with investments, not game pieces.
In other words, Go Wizards! You made a few stupidly expensive cards accessible to a bunch of people who couldn't drop $30 on an Exploration. Good. You have a good product that people want so you made it available to them. Good.
I am in complete agreement with this. This is a game. The secondary market and "investment opportunities" are fringe benefits at best. WotC has made it clear that reprints will happen. Anyone being salty about it because it "devalues their collection" is ignoring the obvious and often reiterated warning.
As for players having to earn their collections...what is this, some sort of elite club? Get off your high horse, it is a game. Among my play group I have the most extensive collection. I wish my buddies all had the same collection from which to build decks. I always tell them "if you can t find it I will lend it to you". The games are better when all players have access to the majority of cards that exist in a format.
Like I said, those who don't get it will shout "Go Wizards!", dismissing the legitimate concerns of the minority who understand. That's by design - they know most of their playerbase isn't all that informed - and this will continue.
If you clapping fanboys would stop to think for a minute, you'd probably realize that you could take your position all the way if you really believe in it. Instead of dribbling and gushing every time Wizards prints out five cents worth of product and charges you $50 for it, push them to allow proxies. Then we can ALL have unlimited amounts of every card we want, for pennies. There will be no secondary market, no cards will have any value at all, not even chase mythics from sets with low print runs. But no, you won't do that. You'll just wait for them to make you "official" proxies from THEIR printers, and charge you thousands of times what it costs. Because, as you'll point out, they aren't doing anything illegal, and therefore, it is automatically moral, healthy for the game, and doesn't damage the secondary market.
Riiiiight.
And no, I'm not upset because my collection/inventory took a massive hit due to the Conspiracy reprints. In fact, I made out like a bandit. I foresaw this coming (and have been posting about it for a very long time) and sold my 2 sets each of Stifle, Misdirection, Exploration, and a few others. This was a few months ago now, apparently just in time, because the cards lost 90% of their value just now. I'm upset on principle only. I know what's going on here, and now a few more people do as well. The rest of ya, keep clapping.
I don't think anyone was saying that they were printing infinite cards to drop high end cards to pennies. I know for me, I appreciate when a Meh card that's expensive only because it's old and rare (not even because there's all that much demand) gets a reprint, it's nice to knock down some of the fringe crap that people don't want to spend a lot of money on. Spend your money on actual good utile cards and get crap like Stifle or Misdirection for the little they are worth based on demand.
Side note: Barely-playable rares from Legends are the worst offenders - Nether Void printed today at rare would be $5, Angus Mackenzie is a $5 card too. These are casual cards that most people want but don't want badly enough to drop real money on them. The ONLY reason a person will spend $200 on a Nether Void is because of the perception that it's resellable for $200 or more.
Like I said, those who don't get it will shout "Go Wizards!", dismissing the legitimate concerns of the minority who understand. That's by design - they know most of their playerbase isn't all that informed - and this will continue.
If you clapping fanboys would stop to think for a minute, you'd probably realize that you could take your position all the way if you really believe in it. Instead of dribbling and gushing every time Wizards prints out five cents worth of product and charges you $50 for it, push them to allow proxies. Then we can ALL have unlimited amounts of every card we want, for pennies. There will be no secondary market, no cards will have any value at all, not even chase mythics from sets with low print runs. But no, you won't do that. You'll just wait for them to make you "official" proxies from THEIR printers, and charge you thousands of times what it costs. Because, as you'll point out, they aren't doing anything illegal, and therefore, it is automatically moral, healthy for the game, and doesn't damage the secondary market.
Riiiiight.
And no, I'm not upset because my collection/inventory took a massive hit due to the Conspiracy reprints. In fact, I made out like a bandit. I foresaw this coming (and have been posting about it for a very long time) and sold my 2 sets each of Stifle, Misdirection, Exploration, and a few others. This was a few months ago now, apparently just in time, because the cards lost 90% of their value just now. I'm upset on principle only. I know what's going on here, and now a few more people do as well. The rest of ya, keep clapping.
There is no amount of convincing that would make wotc allow proxies in official events like PTQ's and GP's. They would sooner cancel the game before they ever allowed such a thing.
I'm also not sure what universe you are living in where Stifle and Exploration lost 90% of their value, right now Stifle is going for 31 bucks mid value if you have original Scourge versions, Exploration is going for 33 bucks mid value if you have the Urza's Saga printing. The high's of these cards just recently were, 44 roughly for Exploration and 40 bucks for Stifle. These cards have dropped in value somewhat but to claim 90% of a drop off is beyond ridiculous.
Yes if you only want the cheapest version you can buy those cards for vastly less then you could original versions just a few months ago, but all the people that owned Explorations and Stifles from their original sets didn't just lose 90% of their value overnight.
I'm upset on principle only. I know what's going on here, and now a few more people do as well. The rest of ya, keep clapping.
Your entire position is predicated on the notion that cards should have some intrinsic value. They DO have value, but that value is not necessary to enjoy the game (especially casually). If the cost of a game where they give you all the rules and you live in a society where you can replicate the pieces cheaply bothers you then just side-step it. Of course you can't compete with your fake cards.
I'm all for reprints, personally. And I'm an older player with potentially lots to "lose". But I have an emotional connection with my collection and only sell pieces of it when necessary. The "value" of it is not really gained or lost since I paid the money and enjoyed the cards long ago and now they just sit in boxes/binders.
Really the fact that they are worth anything at all is amazing to me and a perk of this expensive hobby.
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Obviously the set has a lot of high value reprints, at all rarities even, with things like Brainstorm and Swords to Plowshares at common, up to Stifle and Exploration at rare, Deed and Wake at mythic.
But there are also a good number of new cards, such as Dack, that are fetching some nice prices, and may hold or fall. Curious about some of the others too, don't really see a list compiled of the money in the set.
UBBreya's Toybox (Competitive, Combo)WR
RGodzilla, King of the MonstersG
-Retired Decks-
UBLazav, Dimir Mastermind (Competitive, UB Voltron/Control)UB
"Knowledge is such a burden. Release it. Release all your fears to me."
—Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
Rares & Mythics:
1) Dack Fayden - 34
2) Stifle - 17
3) Exploration - 13.5
4) Council's Judgment - 12
5) Pernicious Deed - 11
6) Mirari's Wake - 10
7) Misdirection - 10
8) Reflecting Pool - 7.5
9) Muzzio, Visionary Architect - 7
10) Marchesa, the Black Rose - 7
11) Edric, Spymaster of Trest - 6
12) Hydra Omnivore - 5
13) Scourge of the Throne - 4
14) Magister of Worth - 4
15) Vedalken Orrery - 4
16) Grenzo, Dungeon Warden - 3.75
17) Brago, King Eternal - 3.5
18) Basandra, Battle Seraph - 3
19) Dack's Duplicate - 3
20) Coercive Portal - 3
Notable Commons, Uncommons, and Tokens:
Dack Fayden Emblem - $3
Swords to Plowshares (U) - $3
Squirrel Nest (U) - $2.25
Brainstorm (C) - $1.5
Fact or Fiction (U) - $1.25
Squirrel Token - $1.25
Demon Token - $1
Breakthrough (U) - $0.75
Mortify (U) $0.75
Sakura-Tribe Elder (C) - $0.75
Notable Foil Prices:
Dack Fayden - $140
Brainstorm - $70 (!)
Exploration - $57
Stifle - $55
Misdirection - $50
Council's Judgement - $40
Pernicious Deed - $40
Marchesa, the Black Rose - $40
Muzzio, Visionary Architect - $32
Scourge of the Throne - $28
Reflecting Pool - $27
Mirari's Wake - $22
Brago, King Eternal - $20
Hydra Omnivore - $20
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden - $18
Selvala, Explorer Returned - $17
Swords to Plowshares - $15
Edric, Spymaster of Trest - $15
Vedalken Orrery - $14
For obvious reasons, the "Draft Matters" cycle and the Conspiracies, including the rare ones, sell for effectively bulk status. Whether that changes in response to an influx of cube builders/players remains to be seen.
One note that I can give is that a lot of the money in this set is concentrated in the foils, in particular the Legacy reprints, Dack, and the new EDH generals created for the set. Given the sheer number of packs being opened, though, I would expect the foil Brainstorm to get cut in half to the $30 range - I think it's not really understood just how limited the supply of Foil Brainstorms was before the Conspiracy release, though this might be mitigated to the extent that people don't like the Masques art. A large part about the value of the set concerns itself with these questions: How much will be opened (and is the supply limited)?, What is the foil ratio in this set?, How much does Cube take off and send set-value into the Draft Matters cards? Whoever can answer these questions can make some reasonable predictions.
Went to a new shop from a friend's recommendation, DQ'ed for willful violation of CR 100.6b.
Have played duals? I have PucaPoints for them!
(Credit to DarkNightCavalier)
$tandard: Too poor.
Modern:
- GW Birthing Pod(?)
Legacy:
- UWR Delver
Mythics:
Dack Fayden: $28
Mirari's Wake: $8
Pernicious Deed: $8
Marchesa, the Black Rose: $5.50
Muzzio, Visionary Architect: $5
Hydra Omnivore: $3.50
Scourge of the Throne: $3
Brago, King Eternal: $2.50
Coercive Portal: $2.50
Everything else is less than $2
Rares:
Stifle: $12
Exploration: $10
Council's Judgment: $9
Misdirection: $7
Reflecting Pool: $5.50
Edric Spymaster of Trest: $3.50
Vedalken Orrery: $3
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden: $3
Magister of Worth: $2
Dack's Duplicate: $2
Rout: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Uncommon:
Swords to Plowshares: $2
Squirrel Nest: $1.50
Fact or Fiction: $1
Everything else is less than $1
Common:
Brainstorm: $1
Reign of the Pit: $1
Sakura Tribe Elder: .50
Everything else is less than .50
Total Set Value Breakdown:
Mythics: $69 (11 mythics)
Rares: $75 (35 normal rares approx.)
Uncommon/common set: $12
Total set value: $156
Overall average box value breakdown:
Mythics: $6.33/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $28.50
Rares: $2.14/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $67.50
Uncommon/commons: $12 x 1.8 = $21
Foils: $10
Total overall average box value: $127 ($120)
It should be noted that the box value is an approximation without knowing the exact distribution specifics, but I think I got it close to correct :). The foils/common/uncommon information is based on limited data at this point as you can probably imagine. Given some of the nicer foils available with this set plus plenty of brand new cards and many in foil for the first time, I figure the foil value a little higher at $10 to be a fair estimate for now. As for the commons/uncommons, I normally look at completed playset information on ebay for complete uncommon/common sets x4 for the set. Since there is limited information there, that number is also an estimate. So for the sake of adjustment there, I put $120 in ( ). All in all, a decently looking value to start, time will likely bring that down like it does for most sets though.
Hope the information helps :).
I drafted this set 3x yesterday and it is excellent fun. I really wonder at the popularity though...my store isn't offering individual packs for sale, opting to reserve it all for in-store drafts or whole box sales. The first draft the store did for the normal draft rate, and then after that the owner shifted the price to just $10 for a draft, no prize support. It's hard to award prizes in a game where it matters how many friends you have playing in your group, and the next to last person standing effectively gets to decide who wins the game. It can actually turn a little ugly instead of fun. Taking the prize support out made it a lot more laid back and fun. Very popular with the people that showed up and cracking these packs is almost as fun as cracking MM. But...no appeal to most of the tournament players ATM. My hardcore buds may jump in for one or two of these, but that's about it. If this doesn't get a second print run...these prices may be horrendous in a year. Especially those EDH generals.
I agree. This seems to have had a lukewarm reception locally because the Legacy crowd is so small. Though there is a large amount of EDH players in my area, they can easily get 1 single copy of the cards they need with the purchase of just 1 box, mythics excluded. To me, it feels like drafting this set is going to slow down considerably by the end of the month and obviously end altogether when M15 hits the shelves.
Personally, I enjoy drafting this set as it's good fun!
seems like the best set to pick if your lgs lets you choose which set you want as prize, both long term and short term.
R Norin the Wary: I've Got a Bad Feeling About This
UG Thrasios & Kydele: Knowledge is Power
RG Borborygmos Enraged: The Breaking of the World
BG The Gitrog Monster: All Glory to the Hypnotoad
WUR Zedruu the Greathearted: Endless Possibilities, One Outcome
WBG Karador, Ghost Chieftain: What's Dead May Never Die
Turn your junk into something great with PucaTrade!
Mythics:
Dack Fayden: $24
Mirari's Wake: $7
Pernicious Deed: $7
Marchesa, the Black Rose: $5
Muzzio, Visionary Architect: $5
Hydra Omnivore: $3
Scourge of the Throne: $3
Coercive Portal: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Rares:
Stifle: $10
Exploration: $9
Council's Judgment: $8
Misdirection: $6
Reflecting Pool: $5
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden: $2.50
Edric Spymaster of Trest: $2
Vedalken Orrery: $2
Dack's Duplicate: $2
Everything else is less than $2
Uncommon:
Swords to Plowshares: $1.50
Squirrel Nest: $1
Everything else is less than $1
Common:
Brainstorm: .75
Sakura Tribe Elder: .50
Everything else is less than .50
Total Set Value Breakdown:
Mythics: $58
Rares: $65
Uncommon/common set: $10
Total set value: $133
Overall average box value breakdown:
Mythics: $5.80/mythic x 4.5 mythics/box = $26
Rares: $1.85/rare x 31.5 rares/box = $58
Uncommon/commons: $10 x 1.8 = $18
Foils: $8
Total overall average box value: $110
Quick update as the prices continue to settle as more of the singles become available in the secondary market. While the box value dropped from the $125 or so it was at down to $110 now, it should be noted that this set is still the best value for currently available in-print sets right at the moment. I imagine as we go out further, as with all sets, that the average box value will drop. For now though, I suggest having fun and drafting the set when you can and hoping for some nice pulls in the process :). Enjoy.
Stifle - $10
Exploration - $9
Council's Judgment - $8
Marchesa - $5
Pernicious Deed - $7
Edric - $2
These seem like awfully good cards for the price. Do you all think these are good spec targets?
They are good prices for players who want to play them. But, there is nothing to suggest that any of these cards will be worth more until the set is long gone. For the following analysis, I use Return to Ravnica as a baseline because it's a recent set (#1), Mythic era set (#2), and popular (#3). Those three factors are important when comparing old cards to new reprints.
Stifle - Not really played in that many decks. Had it been printed in RTR as a Rare, it'd be $5 tops.
Exploration - I think that this one might have been $10 in RTR just because the effect in Standard is good enough.
Council's Judgment - It's a non-abusable Oblivion Ring 90% of the time. I could see it being $10 if standard legal, but it's still 3 mana for sorcery speed removal.
Marchesa - My gut tells me she'll be like Kaalia or Wanderer in price since it looks like a lot of people want to jump on her train... like Nekusar the Mindrazer... a $1.50 card. Basically, she will be played and people in EDH will want her. But, because she is a recent print and easy enough to get ahold of, she'll be way cheaper than my intuition says she should. $6 is about right then.
Pernicious Deed - This card would see a lot of standard play so the RTR thing isn't quite going to work. It's old and even at Mythic the total printed supply will probably double and the demand won't be going up because of anything outside of natural growth to the game. $7-$8 sounds right.
Edric - Lots of reprinting, somewhat popular, yet there aren't that many people who need one now. They all own them already.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
All your Ice Age Foil Basics are belong to us
If you have any foil 7ED Island #334 I am very interested!
EDIT: Thanks for the pricing Uldan... At $15... that is not terrible... but more than I'd want to gamble on it for... at $50... no way in heck.
All your Ice Age Foil Basics are belong to us
If you have any foil 7ED Island #334 I am very interested!
Per the Market Street forum rules, posts of this nature are considered as spam. Infraction issued. - Snobby Bok Choy
And since this is unlike most sets in that it will be printed in monstrous numbers, for as long as Wizards wants and for as long as there's any demand for it, expect that to come down even faster and further than most sets do.
A true devaluation of the secondary market, en masse. Very interesting to watch from an economic/investing standpoint, wow.
Wizards profits huge. Selling ink on cardboard for higher prices than they've ever been able to charge before - profits way up! It's like being able to legally print twenty dollar bills all day long.
Older players/collectors (anyone with cards) lose.
Newer/younger players/collectors win (the stuff they need is cheaper now), and generally aren't able to understand why everybody else is upset.
End result: Wizards makes record profits off the backs of their loyal collector and player base, while the younger and newer majority of players applauds, ensuring this will keep happening.
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Wizards has made it abundantly clear that if you're looking to put money into cards without fear of reprints, look to the reserved list. Are that many people really sitting on hordes of Stifles, Deeds and Explorations that this set is ruining their collections? Conspiracy will come and go, and over time the reprinted cards will tick upwards again - at least the cards worth having. I honestly feel like some people would rather Magic just go belly up and see the game die already.
Legacy: D+T
Oldschool: BW Deadguy BW
Magic player/collector since 1994
Proud supporter of #MtgForLife!
Earn their collections? Seriously? What right do you have to dictate how new players get to build their collections? A new player can buy into the $500 or whatever it would cost for a playset of Conspiracy, and you know what they'd have? About 1/50th the value of most serious Legacy players, and nowhere remotely close to building a mid- to high-value Legacy deck, even through trades. I've been playing Magic for 20 years, have an extensive eternal collection, and Conspiracy doesn't "slight" me in the... well, slightest. I see eternal staples with cool new art, an interesting draft format, and a fun place to put some spare Magic dollars to bust packs that aren't just another Standard set. What excites me even more is that new players can crack a few Legacy staples to at least get themselves started. Any serious eternal player knows darn well that the cards in Conspiracy, nice as they are, don't even begin to scratch the surface of what's needed to play Legacy.
I'd like to say I'm a Magic "loyalist" too, as long as I've been playing. But not much of my money goes back to WotC directly at this point, and hasn't for years. It goes mostly to eBayers, collectors like me as we buy/sell cards we've been sitting on for ages and pass in and out of the game as real life intersects. Should I really be offended that a young, new player that could practically be my child is able to buy Explorations for $10?
Legacy: D+T
Oldschool: BW Deadguy BW
Magic player/collector since 1994
Proud supporter of #MtgForLife!
In other words, Go Wizards! You made a few stupidly expensive cards accessible to a bunch of people who couldn't drop $30 on an Exploration. Good. You have a good product that people want so you made it available to them. Good.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
As for conspiracy in general I think the set is fine. It is a well setup set for drafting purposes and has enough value in it to make it worth it for people who are doing it hoping to get their money back out of the process at the end to be able to enjoy as well.
I am in complete agreement with this. This is a game. The secondary market and "investment opportunities" are fringe benefits at best. WotC has made it clear that reprints will happen. Anyone being salty about it because it "devalues their collection" is ignoring the obvious and often reiterated warning.
As for players having to earn their collections...what is this, some sort of elite club? Get off your high horse, it is a game. Among my play group I have the most extensive collection. I wish my buddies all had the same collection from which to build decks. I always tell them "if you can t find it I will lend it to you". The games are better when all players have access to the majority of cards that exist in a format.
If you clapping fanboys would stop to think for a minute, you'd probably realize that you could take your position all the way if you really believe in it. Instead of dribbling and gushing every time Wizards prints out five cents worth of product and charges you $50 for it, push them to allow proxies. Then we can ALL have unlimited amounts of every card we want, for pennies. There will be no secondary market, no cards will have any value at all, not even chase mythics from sets with low print runs. But no, you won't do that. You'll just wait for them to make you "official" proxies from THEIR printers, and charge you thousands of times what it costs. Because, as you'll point out, they aren't doing anything illegal, and therefore, it is automatically moral, healthy for the game, and doesn't damage the secondary market.
Riiiiight.
And no, I'm not upset because my collection/inventory took a massive hit due to the Conspiracy reprints. In fact, I made out like a bandit. I foresaw this coming (and have been posting about it for a very long time) and sold my 2 sets each of Stifle, Misdirection, Exploration, and a few others. This was a few months ago now, apparently just in time, because the cards lost 90% of their value just now. I'm upset on principle only. I know what's going on here, and now a few more people do as well. The rest of ya, keep clapping.
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Side note: Barely-playable rares from Legends are the worst offenders - Nether Void printed today at rare would be $5, Angus Mackenzie is a $5 card too. These are casual cards that most people want but don't want badly enough to drop real money on them. The ONLY reason a person will spend $200 on a Nether Void is because of the perception that it's resellable for $200 or more.
WUBRGPauper Battle BoxWUBRG ... and why I am not a fan of Wayne Reynolds' Illustrations.
There is no amount of convincing that would make wotc allow proxies in official events like PTQ's and GP's. They would sooner cancel the game before they ever allowed such a thing.
I'm also not sure what universe you are living in where Stifle and Exploration lost 90% of their value, right now Stifle is going for 31 bucks mid value if you have original Scourge versions, Exploration is going for 33 bucks mid value if you have the Urza's Saga printing. The high's of these cards just recently were, 44 roughly for Exploration and 40 bucks for Stifle. These cards have dropped in value somewhat but to claim 90% of a drop off is beyond ridiculous.
Yes if you only want the cheapest version you can buy those cards for vastly less then you could original versions just a few months ago, but all the people that owned Explorations and Stifles from their original sets didn't just lose 90% of their value overnight.
Feel free to bid on my cards here!
Your entire position is predicated on the notion that cards should have some intrinsic value. They DO have value, but that value is not necessary to enjoy the game (especially casually). If the cost of a game where they give you all the rules and you live in a society where you can replicate the pieces cheaply bothers you then just side-step it. Of course you can't compete with your fake cards.
I'm all for reprints, personally. And I'm an older player with potentially lots to "lose". But I have an emotional connection with my collection and only sell pieces of it when necessary. The "value" of it is not really gained or lost since I paid the money and enjoyed the cards long ago and now they just sit in boxes/binders.
Really the fact that they are worth anything at all is amazing to me and a perk of this expensive hobby.