I primarily play Standard and I'm not as well-versed on non-rotating formats. I am aiming to trade away cards from these sets pretty soon before they become worthless, but I know that sometimes cards retain value because they could be used in non-rotating formats. Are there any cards from RTR block and M14 I should consider holding onto?
There really doesn't seem to be a lot of value between RTR and M14. Definitely DRS, Abrupt Decay and Scooze, as mentioned above. Others I can think of off the top of my head are; Sphinx's Rev, Domri, Voice of Resurgence and Archangel of Thune, although they all should dip a bit after rotation. Oh, and Shocklands! But that may go without saying.
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(22 Total) - October 2014; December 2014; January 2015; April 2015; June 2015; August 2015; September 2015; November 2015; December 2015(T); January 2016; March 2016(T); April 2016; June 2016; October 2016; December 2016(T); February 2017; April 2017; December 2017; November 2018(T); January 2019; April 2019; June 2019
(8 Total) - May 2015; May 2016; June 2016; August 2016; October 2016; December 2016; October 2017; May 2019
(7 Total) - September 2015; October 2015; January 2016; March 2016; April 2016; July 2016(T); March 2019(T)
I agree that DRS, aburpt decay and ooze are good bets, but I'm not so sure about some of the others. I see the prices of Sphinx's rev, Angel of Thune and Domri as being driven significantly by standard. I think they might be good cards to have over the very long term, as they do fill a role in modern, but in the short term I expect them to tank. They look more to me like resto angel, huntmaster, and geralf's messenger than say liliana, snapcaster and thalia. Voice seems like a good pick because he's a 4 of in a very popular archytype, but I hesitate to pick him up until prices drop with rotation.
Another card I like is supreme verdict (it's modern's wrath for the time being).
Hold - Any card that will retain its current value 6 months after rotation
Trade - Any card that will not retain its current value even 6 months after rotation
Hold - Any card that will retain its current value 6 months after rotation
Trade - Any card that will not retain its current value even 6 months after rotation
That's a really solid list, Lyle. I agree with pretty much all of it. Archangel of Thune is definitely going to dip at rotation, but she has started to get some traction in Modern, so if she's not reprinted then she could end up only dipping briefly. If she is reprinted, though, she'll dip harder as the supply suddenly doubles.
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No one thinks shock lands could dip after rotation?
With the large print run that the RtR block saw, I would think shocks would dip after rotation and then gradually climb again over the next few years.
I think you'll see a minor dip when standard players dump them, but its not going to be a huge one. Most of the RTR shocks bottomed out already and are going up in fact.
I feel like I see a new thread about this on a fairly regular basis. Perhaps there should just be a stickied thread for the topic until after rotation actually happens?
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I agree that DRS, aburpt decay and ooze are good bets, but I'm not so sure about some of the others. I see the prices of Sphinx's rev, Angel of Thune and Domri as being driven significantly by standard. I think they might be good cards to have over the very long term, as they do fill a role in modern, but in the short term I expect them to tank. They look more to me like resto angel, huntmaster, and geralf's messenger than say liliana, snapcaster and thalia. Voice seems like a good pick because he's a 4 of in a very popular archytype, but I hesitate to pick him up until prices drop with rotation.
Another card I like is supreme verdict (it's modern's wrath for the time being).
Isn't Wrath Modern's Wrath? Joking aside, I don't disagree with what you're saying, the problem is the OP didn't give a lot criteria to go by. While I do think Sphinx's Rev, VoR, Domri, and AoT's prices are being driven by Standard, I don't think they will be bargain bin rares after rotation. All of these cards see some play outside of Standard, with a couple of them (Sphinx's Rev and VoR) already considered staples in established Modern decks (U/W/R Control and Pod). I think this will prevent these cards from tanking completely. So I guess, for value retention, DRS, Scooze and AD can be considered tier one with the others I'm talking about being relegated to tier two. I guess it depends on how you look at it, I don't regret holding on to my Restoration Angels, which are still 10ish dollars, but I do regret not trading away my Thragtusks when they were going for 30ish.
As far as the Shocklands go, I've been working under the assumption that they will dip slightly after rotation, but then begin a slow steady climb back up from there. Basically, if you play Modern, YOU MUST OWN SHOCKS. Short of Wizards printing functional reprints of the OG duals, I can't see this not holding true.
Edit: Also, considering it sees play outside standard, and was the only good card printed in a small set with single pack draft, I'd be shocked if VoR isn't still worth more than Thalia ($7ish) after rotation.
(22 Total) - October 2014; December 2014; January 2015; April 2015; June 2015; August 2015; September 2015; November 2015; December 2015(T); January 2016; March 2016(T); April 2016; June 2016; October 2016; December 2016(T); February 2017; April 2017; December 2017; November 2018(T); January 2019; April 2019; June 2019
(8 Total) - May 2015; May 2016; June 2016; August 2016; October 2016; December 2016; October 2017; May 2019
(7 Total) - September 2015; October 2015; January 2016; March 2016; April 2016; July 2016(T); March 2019(T)
Isn't Wrath Modern's Wrath? Smile Joking aside, I don't disagree with what you're saying, the problem is the OP didn't give a lot criteria to go by. While I do think Sphinx's Rev, VoR, Domri, and AoT's prices are being driven by Standard, I don't think they will be bargain bin rares after rotation. All of these cards see some play outside of Standard, with a couple of them (Sphinx's Rev and VoR) already considered staples in established Modern decks (U/W/R Control and Pod). I think this will prevent these cards from tanking completely. So I guess, for value retention, DRS, Scooze and AD can be considered tier one with the others I'm talking about being relegated to tier two. I guess it depends on how you look at it, I don't regret holding on to my Restoration Angels, which are still 10ish dollars, but I do regret not trading away my Thragtusks when they were going for 30ish.
As far as the Shocklands go, I've been working under the assumption that they will dip slightly after rotation, but then begin a slow steady climb back up from there. Basically, if you play Modern, YOU MUST OWN SHOCKS. Short of Wizards printing functional reprints of the OG duals, I can't see this not holding true.
Edit: Also, considering it sees play outside standard, and was the only good card printed in a small set with single pack draft, I'd be shocked if VoR isn't still worth more than Thalia ($7ish) after rotation.
I agree about Rev, Domri and AoT not being bargain bin, that's why I said I like them in the long term (think 2-4 years). When I said they would tank, I meant like resto angel did, not like thragtusk. This is because I see the great majority of their demand being driven by standard, though certainly not the entirety of it. I wouldn't call Rev a staple of modern, though it certainly does see a reasonable amount of play in u/w/r control. The main problem with it is that it sees basically no play in anything else, and doesn't really have much of an opportunity to expand the amount of decks it's featured in and lacks casual appeal. You'll note that I actually said that VoR is a decent bet post rotation, I just don't want to pick him up yet because I think his price is heavily inflated by standard. The difference between VoR and Sphinx is that Sphinx saw a higher print run, is not generally played as a 4 of, and is in a less popular archetype. Plus VoR has more casual appeal and is more versatile when it comes to what decks it can go in going forward.
And that's fair about the tier one and two stuff, but that's kind of what I'm getting at. I'm only really interested in tier one specs right now; I'll be interested in tier two specs in about a year or so once they've bottomed out. Resto angel is actually a great example of what I'm talking about. According to tcgplayer, they're currently up to around 9 bucks, but back in the fall to early spring they were only 5 dollars. I see a similar pattern happening to Domri, AoT and Rev as this. As such, if I traded more actively, I'd be interested in getting rid of those cards (especially Domri and AoT right now since each is at around 25 and rev is 18) because I expect them to fall to the 10-15 dollar range come October-Feb. At that point, I'd like to pick them back up as they slowly climb due to a moderate demand from modern.
Thragtusk is a good example of what happens when there is no eternal demand for a hot standard card (and no, I don't count nic fit, lol). Its demand was entirely driven by standard, and as such it became worthless once it rotated. But even if it had a small amount of modern demand like AoT, Rev or Domri, it probably wouldn't be more than 10 bucks right now like resto angel. As such, the best play would be to get off them at 30 (or even 15-20), and pick them up when they rotate for pennies on the dollar.
As for shocklands, I mostly agree, though I'm not sure that they'll dip at all, though they certainly should. My thought process here has to do with what you noted about the perceived (and real) need to own shocks for modern. My guess is that very few people who actually have a significant number (i.e. more than one deck's worth) will actually try to get rid of theirs because it has been so ingrained in their minds that the shocks are the cornerstone of modern. When the fetches rotated a few years ago, the vast majority of people didn't care because their primary format of play was legacy. But right now, virtually anyone who has shocks is probably looking to hold on to them simply because they don't want to miss out on the next big spike and don't want to have to re buy in to the format in a few years time like they're having to do now with the fetches. Take Liliana and snapcaster as examples. We only saw the tiniest of price dips with them before they quickly more than doubled in price. Now, I don't think we'll see the sort of gains on the shocks as we did on those two, due to a much larger supply and a more general awareness of their importance, but I think that there won't be a significant enough sell off to actually force merchants to drop prices, especially when those merchants know for a fact that the drop will be very temporary at best.
Oh, and I'd guarantee you that VoR will be worth more than thalia, but that's like comparing apples to oranges. Thalia was never worth more than about 8 bucks, whereas VoR has had its time around the 60 mark. Plus, VoR is a muythic and thalia is a rare, so the amount printed for each is significantly different. VoR also has more casual appeal and is more integral to decks. If I had to wager, we'll see VoR take a path like Geist of Saint Traft than thalia, though I think we'll see a larger initial dip as geist wasn't as popular in standard. I'll be trading for them when they hit 15-20. Again, I am bullish on VoR in the long term, but think he's got more room to drop before it's time to move in.
Trade for now: Ooze, DRS, AD, Shocks (though don't go overboard)
Trade for come Oct-Feb: VoR, Rev, AoT, Verdict (and possibly shocks)
I'd also advise picking up a few burning trees, boros charms, thespian stages, mind grinds, detention spheres, chromatic lanterns, loxodon smiters, and young pyromancers as good low-risk, cheap bets.
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No one thinks shock lands could dip after rotation?
With the large print run that the RtR block saw, I would think shocks would dip after rotation and then gradually climb again over the next few years.
I think you'll see a minor dip when standard players dump them, but its not going to be a huge one. Most of the RTR shocks bottomed out already and are going up in fact.
I think under normal circumstances we would see a price pattern like that of the fetches (and I don't mean what's happened to fetches in the past year). However, I would argue that psychologically, things are different now. People see the huge gains the fetches have experienced and don't want to miss out on the shocks. I doubt you'll see very many of these in trade folders come rotation because people A) don't want to miss out, B) don't want to have to buy back in to a format, and C) have had it constantly emphasized to them how important the shocks are in modern. I expect to see a price pattern more like snapcaster, with possibly a tiny dip and then an instant recovery with a solid gain. But the shocks probably won't gain quite as much as snapcaster just due to their significantly larger supply.
Isn't Wrath Modern's Wrath? Smile Joking aside, I don't disagree with what you're saying, the problem is the OP didn't give a lot criteria to go by. While I do think Sphinx's Rev, VoR, Domri, and AoT's prices are being driven by Standard, I don't think they will be bargain bin rares after rotation. All of these cards see some play outside of Standard, with a couple of them (Sphinx's Rev and VoR) already considered staples in established Modern decks (U/W/R Control and Pod). I think this will prevent these cards from tanking completely. So I guess, for value retention, DRS, Scooze and AD can be considered tier one with the others I'm talking about being relegated to tier two. I guess it depends on how you look at it, I don't regret holding on to my Restoration Angels, which are still 10ish dollars, but I do regret not trading away my Thragtusks when they were going for 30ish.
As far as the Shocklands go, I've been working under the assumption that they will dip slightly after rotation, but then begin a slow steady climb back up from there. Basically, if you play Modern, YOU MUST OWN SHOCKS. Short of Wizards printing functional reprints of the OG duals, I can't see this not holding true.
Edit: Also, considering it sees play outside standard, and was the only good card printed in a small set with single pack draft, I'd be shocked if VoR isn't still worth more than Thalia ($7ish) after rotation.
I agree about Rev, Domri and AoT not being bargain bin, that's why I said I like them in the long term (think 2-4 years). When I said they would tank, I meant like resto angel did, not like thragtusk. This is because I see the great majority of their demand being driven by standard, though certainly not the entirety of it. I wouldn't call Rev a staple of modern, though it certainly does see a reasonable amount of play in u/w/r control. The main problem with it is that it sees basically no play in anything else, and doesn't really have much of an opportunity to expand the amount of decks it's featured in and lacks casual appeal. You'll note that I actually said that VoR is a decent bet post rotation, I just don't want to pick him up yet because I think his price is heavily inflated by standard. The difference between VoR and Sphinx is that Sphinx saw a higher print run, is not generally played as a 4 of, and is in a less popular archetype. Plus VoR has more casual appeal and is more versatile when it comes to what decks it can go in going forward.
And that's fair about the tier one and two stuff, but that's kind of what I'm getting at. I'm only really interested in tier one specs right now; I'll be interested in tier two specs in about a year or so once they've bottomed out. Resto angel is actually a great example of what I'm talking about. According to tcgplayer, they're currently up to around 9 bucks, but back in the fall to early spring they were only 5 dollars. I see a similar pattern happening to Domri, AoT and Rev as this. As such, if I traded more actively, I'd be interested in getting rid of those cards (especially Domri and AoT right now since each is at around 25 and rev is 18) because I expect them to fall to the 10-15 dollar range come October-Feb. At that point, I'd like to pick them back up as they slowly climb due to a moderate demand from modern.
Thragtusk is a good example of what happens when there is no eternal demand for a hot standard card (and no, I don't count nic fit, lol). Its demand was entirely driven by standard, and as such it became worthless once it rotated. But even if it had a small amount of modern demand like AoT, Rev or Domri, it probably wouldn't be more than 10 bucks right now like resto angel. As such, the best play would be to get off them at 30 (or even 15-20), and pick them up when they rotate for pennies on the dollar.
As for shocklands, I mostly agree, though I'm not sure that they'll dip at all, though they certainly should. My thought process here has to do with what you noted about the perceived (and real) need to own shocks for modern. My guess is that very few people who actually have a significant number (i.e. more than one deck's worth) will actually try to get rid of theirs because it has been so ingrained in their minds that the shocks are the cornerstone of modern. When the fetches rotated a few years ago, the vast majority of people didn't care because their primary format of play was legacy. But right now, virtually anyone who has shocks is probably looking to hold on to them simply because they don't want to miss out on the next big spike and don't want to have to re buy in to the format in a few years time like they're having to do now with the fetches. Take Liliana and snapcaster as examples. We only saw the tiniest of price dips with them before they quickly more than doubled in price. Now, I don't think we'll see the sort of gains on the shocks as we did on those two, due to a much larger supply and a more general awareness of their importance, but I think that there won't be a significant enough sell off to actually force merchants to drop prices, especially when those merchants know for a fact that the drop will be very temporary at best.
Oh, and I'd guarantee you that VoR will be worth more than thalia, but that's like comparing apples to oranges. Thalia was never worth more than about 8 bucks, whereas VoR has had its time around the 60 mark. Plus, VoR is a muythic and thalia is a rare, so the amount printed for each is significantly different. VoR also has more casual appeal and is more integral to decks. If I had to wager, we'll see VoR take a path like Geist of Saint Traft than thalia, though I think we'll see a larger initial dip as geist wasn't as popular in standard. I'll be trading for them when they hit 15-20. Again, I am bullish on VoR in the long term, but think he's got more room to drop before it's time to move in.
Trade for now: Ooze, DRS, AD, Shocks (though don't go overboard)
Trade for come Oct-Feb: VoR, Rev, AoT, Verdict (and possibly shocks)
I'd also advise picking up a few burning trees, boros charms, thespian stages, mind grinds, detention spheres, chromatic lanterns, loxodon smiters, and young pyromancers as good low-risk, cheap bets.
I don't disagree with anything you've said here, and find your logic quite sound. Problem is, the OP didn't give much criteria to go by. If you stay on top of the market, and want to get the most possible value out of your cards, by all means, trade the cards I was talking about right now, you'll be able to pick them up considerably cheaper shortly after rotation. However, if you're not on top of the market, and don't feel like reacquiring a play set of Domris for 30 to 40 dollars in the future, I think they're worth holding onto. I don't think you'll ever pick them up for $10 a play set like you can Thragtusk these days. Domri, VoR, etc are not going go the way of Nightveil Specter and Desecration Demon, which are two cards I'd dump ASAP if you even can. As far as Shocks are concerned, I'd be shocked if some of them didn't dip ever so slightly immediately after rotation, and then start to go back up pretty quickly. Regardless of what anybody says, they're as staple a card as you get in Modern. I think that trading them now might be the worst possible time to do so, unless you want to reacquire them right after rotation. This seems like a lot of hassle considring most of the cost difference would be eaten up by tax if you bought them then.
Edit: This is long post with the quotes included. How do you hide them?
(22 Total) - October 2014; December 2014; January 2015; April 2015; June 2015; August 2015; September 2015; November 2015; December 2015(T); January 2016; March 2016(T); April 2016; June 2016; October 2016; December 2016(T); February 2017; April 2017; December 2017; November 2018(T); January 2019; April 2019; June 2019
(8 Total) - May 2015; May 2016; June 2016; August 2016; October 2016; December 2016; October 2017; May 2019
(7 Total) - September 2015; October 2015; January 2016; March 2016; April 2016; July 2016(T); March 2019(T)
One card that comes to mind is Chromatic Lantern. While it isn't a game-breaking card in Standard, it does hold some value in Commander. Granted, I don't think it will hit double digits in a while, but as supply goes down over the years, I can see it getting more valuable.
Shock lands may dip at rotation, but that does not mean they will be less after rotation than they are right now. They may rise slowly over the summer prior to their dip at rotation and that dip may not fully counteract the summer's rise.
Maybe you want to acquire now, sell this summer, reacquire this fall, sell next year. But, far from a sure thing that they will go up and down enough over the rest of this year to make up for the cost of purchase and sale.
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Hold - Any card that will retain its current value 6 months after rotation
Trade - Any card that will not retain its current value even 6 months after rotation
there's a big difference between dipping at rotation and losing value overall at rotation. Almost everything dips because there are people who just play standard and will increase the available volume. The real question is what things are going to stay as a big deal. The only real corrections I have to the list above are as follows:
even if she's gaining some traction in modern, there's not enough to hold the price. While she may see some play it just isn't enough for a $20 price tag.
She plays in legacy and modern and isn't that expensive. $13 is about right for post rotation and there's a lot of potential to regain price. For speculation I'd consider her low risk low reward. Not worth stocking up on, but you wont get burned if you hang on to a few.
He's just really solid and very modern playable. I don't see him having a lot of trouble holding an $18 price tag. That said, I'd consider him slightly higher risk than Chandra, so I wouldn't go stocking up on them. Just keep a few in case you want them later.
These aren't going to hold value, but all have some long term potential. I'd definitely consider picking them up on the cheap after rotation, but only if the price is right.
All bets are off:
Deathrite Shaman - I have no clue what he's going to do. He's amazing, but banned in modern which makes it hard to hold a price tag.
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Pure speculation on the shocks. Those punters are going to get burnt.
They're just not modern staples like fetches are.
Shocks and fetches, likes peas and carrots. When they reprint fetches, and in theoretically greater numbers than shocks, then shocks will become the scarce part of the equation and prices will rise on those. It's the ebb and flow of Magic!
I do think short term people are going to feel burnt on the shocks, but give it time.
even if she's gaining some traction in modern, there's not enough to hold the price. While she may see some play it just isn't enough for a $20 price tag.
Keep:
Mutavault
This card will always be in high demand. It's a staple for every format all the way to vintage.
Chandra, Pyromaster
She plays in legacy and modern and isn't that expensive. $13 is about right for post rotation and there's a lot of potential to regain price. For speculation I'd consider her low risk low reward. Not worth stocking up on, but you wont get burned if you hang on to a few.
Domri Rade
He's just really solid and very modern playable. I don't see him having a lot of trouble holding an $18 price tag. That said, I'd consider him slightly higher risk than Chandra, so I wouldn't go stocking up on them. Just keep a few in case you want them later.
Pick up after rotation
Boros Reckoner
Ajani, Caller of Pride
Lifebane Zombie
These aren't going to hold value, but all have some long term potential. I'd definitely consider picking them up on the cheap after rotation, but only if the price is right.
All bets are off:
Deathrite Shaman - I have no clue what he's going to do. He's amazing, but banned in modern which makes it hard to hold a price tag.
I have to say that I disagree with most of this. You're right about AoT, but mutavault is going to absolutely tank. It really only sees play in a handful of unpopular modern decks and only one unpopular legacy deck. Its demand right now is almost exclusiely due to standard since the majority of decks play 3-4 of them. Right now it's essentially at the same price it was before it was reprinted, and I see no reason for why a massive increase in supply from reprinting won't affect its price post rotation. I expect these to be around ten dollars at best. Also, Chandra is a fringe card at best in eternal formats, so I don't expect her to be more than 7-8 dollars, and probably less. Calling Domri very modern playable is far too charitable. Again, Domri only really sees play in a very small subset of decks and the demand for the card is driven almost exclusively by standard. Expect to see her go to 10-15 post rotation and not climb much for a while. And why pick up reckoner? I've never seen that card in a single eternal list. Ajani is just as bad, and lifebane is only marginally better. There are simply far better bets out there than these three. Shaman on the other hand is one of the few very solid bets because it's a legacy all star. If you think being banned in modern makes his price tag untenable, then might I refer you to stoneforge mystic, which was printed as a 2 of in an event deck no less.
If you think being banned in modern makes his price tag untenable, then might I refer you to stoneforge mystic, which was printed as a 2 of in an event deck no less.
Careful with this comparison. Stoneforge mystic came from a middle-of-the-block small set that wasn't well received and consequently, not opened as much. DRS was in a set that saw quite the explosion of the mtg playerbase as well as being the first in a well received large set. Sure you could factor in the event deck but that still wouldn't inject enough supply into the market.
Careful with this comparison. Stoneforge mystic came from a middle-of-the-block small set that wasn't well received and consequently, not opened as much. DRS was in a set that saw quite the explosion of the mtg playerbase as well as being the first in a well received large set. Sure you could factor in the event deck but that still wouldn't inject enough supply into the market.
Fair. I don't mean to say that it's a 1:1 comparison, but I think the two are reasonably similar, especially since deathrite is played in more decks (at least to the best of my knowledge). The real point is that he's a legacy all star and should do quite fine in the coming years.
but chromatic lantern could be printed in basically any set. its not like senseis divining top, where it is very flavorful and can only be printed if we are on that certain plane, or in something like commander or conspiracy. you could put it anywhere. so i am assuming it will be reprinted eventually
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OLD SCHOOL 93/94 «The Pain Train» Black Sligh, Esper «Machine Gun» Artifacts, Jund «Psycho» Ponza-Disko.
Another card I like is supreme verdict (it's modern's wrath for the time being).
Trade - Any card that will not retain its current value even 6 months after rotation
Hold:
Abrupt Decay
Archangel of Thune
Deathrite Shaman
Scavenging Ooze
Shocklands
Voice of Resurgence
Trade:
Ajani, Caller of Pride
Blood Baron of Vizkopa
Boros Reckoner
Chandra, Pyromaster
Domri Rade
Garruk, Caller of Beasts
Kalonian Hydra
Lifebane Zombie
Mutavault
Nightveil Specter
Obzedat, Ghost Council
Sphinx's Revelation
That's a really solid list, Lyle. I agree with pretty much all of it. Archangel of Thune is definitely going to dip at rotation, but she has started to get some traction in Modern, so if she's not reprinted then she could end up only dipping briefly. If she is reprinted, though, she'll dip harder as the supply suddenly doubles.
With the large print run that the RtR block saw, I would think shocks would dip after rotation and then gradually climb again over the next few years.
RGOmnath, Locus of ManaRG
URThe Locust godUR
Modern
UWMiraclesUW
Legacy
BGIce Station Zebra (Living Fins)BG
UBRGrixis ControlUBR
RGLandsRG
I think you'll see a minor dip when standard players dump them, but its not going to be a huge one. Most of the RTR shocks bottomed out already and are going up in fact.
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=499393 My Sales Thread
― Anthony Bourdain, Kitchen Confidential
I will always firmly stand by the belief that Magic is a game first and a collectable second.
Isn't Wrath Modern's Wrath? Joking aside, I don't disagree with what you're saying, the problem is the OP didn't give a lot criteria to go by. While I do think Sphinx's Rev, VoR, Domri, and AoT's prices are being driven by Standard, I don't think they will be bargain bin rares after rotation. All of these cards see some play outside of Standard, with a couple of them (Sphinx's Rev and VoR) already considered staples in established Modern decks (U/W/R Control and Pod). I think this will prevent these cards from tanking completely. So I guess, for value retention, DRS, Scooze and AD can be considered tier one with the others I'm talking about being relegated to tier two. I guess it depends on how you look at it, I don't regret holding on to my Restoration Angels, which are still 10ish dollars, but I do regret not trading away my Thragtusks when they were going for 30ish.
As far as the Shocklands go, I've been working under the assumption that they will dip slightly after rotation, but then begin a slow steady climb back up from there. Basically, if you play Modern, YOU MUST OWN SHOCKS. Short of Wizards printing functional reprints of the OG duals, I can't see this not holding true.
Edit: Also, considering it sees play outside standard, and was the only good card printed in a small set with single pack draft, I'd be shocked if VoR isn't still worth more than Thalia ($7ish) after rotation.
I agree about Rev, Domri and AoT not being bargain bin, that's why I said I like them in the long term (think 2-4 years). When I said they would tank, I meant like resto angel did, not like thragtusk. This is because I see the great majority of their demand being driven by standard, though certainly not the entirety of it. I wouldn't call Rev a staple of modern, though it certainly does see a reasonable amount of play in u/w/r control. The main problem with it is that it sees basically no play in anything else, and doesn't really have much of an opportunity to expand the amount of decks it's featured in and lacks casual appeal. You'll note that I actually said that VoR is a decent bet post rotation, I just don't want to pick him up yet because I think his price is heavily inflated by standard. The difference between VoR and Sphinx is that Sphinx saw a higher print run, is not generally played as a 4 of, and is in a less popular archetype. Plus VoR has more casual appeal and is more versatile when it comes to what decks it can go in going forward.
And that's fair about the tier one and two stuff, but that's kind of what I'm getting at. I'm only really interested in tier one specs right now; I'll be interested in tier two specs in about a year or so once they've bottomed out. Resto angel is actually a great example of what I'm talking about. According to tcgplayer, they're currently up to around 9 bucks, but back in the fall to early spring they were only 5 dollars. I see a similar pattern happening to Domri, AoT and Rev as this. As such, if I traded more actively, I'd be interested in getting rid of those cards (especially Domri and AoT right now since each is at around 25 and rev is 18) because I expect them to fall to the 10-15 dollar range come October-Feb. At that point, I'd like to pick them back up as they slowly climb due to a moderate demand from modern.
Thragtusk is a good example of what happens when there is no eternal demand for a hot standard card (and no, I don't count nic fit, lol). Its demand was entirely driven by standard, and as such it became worthless once it rotated. But even if it had a small amount of modern demand like AoT, Rev or Domri, it probably wouldn't be more than 10 bucks right now like resto angel. As such, the best play would be to get off them at 30 (or even 15-20), and pick them up when they rotate for pennies on the dollar.
As for shocklands, I mostly agree, though I'm not sure that they'll dip at all, though they certainly should. My thought process here has to do with what you noted about the perceived (and real) need to own shocks for modern. My guess is that very few people who actually have a significant number (i.e. more than one deck's worth) will actually try to get rid of theirs because it has been so ingrained in their minds that the shocks are the cornerstone of modern. When the fetches rotated a few years ago, the vast majority of people didn't care because their primary format of play was legacy. But right now, virtually anyone who has shocks is probably looking to hold on to them simply because they don't want to miss out on the next big spike and don't want to have to re buy in to the format in a few years time like they're having to do now with the fetches. Take Liliana and snapcaster as examples. We only saw the tiniest of price dips with them before they quickly more than doubled in price. Now, I don't think we'll see the sort of gains on the shocks as we did on those two, due to a much larger supply and a more general awareness of their importance, but I think that there won't be a significant enough sell off to actually force merchants to drop prices, especially when those merchants know for a fact that the drop will be very temporary at best.
Oh, and I'd guarantee you that VoR will be worth more than thalia, but that's like comparing apples to oranges. Thalia was never worth more than about 8 bucks, whereas VoR has had its time around the 60 mark. Plus, VoR is a muythic and thalia is a rare, so the amount printed for each is significantly different. VoR also has more casual appeal and is more integral to decks. If I had to wager, we'll see VoR take a path like Geist of Saint Traft than thalia, though I think we'll see a larger initial dip as geist wasn't as popular in standard. I'll be trading for them when they hit 15-20. Again, I am bullish on VoR in the long term, but think he's got more room to drop before it's time to move in.
Trade for now: Ooze, DRS, AD, Shocks (though don't go overboard)
Trade for come Oct-Feb: VoR, Rev, AoT, Verdict (and possibly shocks)
I'd also advise picking up a few burning trees, boros charms, thespian stages, mind grinds, detention spheres, chromatic lanterns, loxodon smiters, and young pyromancers as good low-risk, cheap bets.
I think under normal circumstances we would see a price pattern like that of the fetches (and I don't mean what's happened to fetches in the past year). However, I would argue that psychologically, things are different now. People see the huge gains the fetches have experienced and don't want to miss out on the shocks. I doubt you'll see very many of these in trade folders come rotation because people A) don't want to miss out, B) don't want to have to buy back in to a format, and C) have had it constantly emphasized to them how important the shocks are in modern. I expect to see a price pattern more like snapcaster, with possibly a tiny dip and then an instant recovery with a solid gain. But the shocks probably won't gain quite as much as snapcaster just due to their significantly larger supply.
They're just not modern staples like fetches are.
I don't disagree with anything you've said here, and find your logic quite sound. Problem is, the OP didn't give much criteria to go by. If you stay on top of the market, and want to get the most possible value out of your cards, by all means, trade the cards I was talking about right now, you'll be able to pick them up considerably cheaper shortly after rotation. However, if you're not on top of the market, and don't feel like reacquiring a play set of Domris for 30 to 40 dollars in the future, I think they're worth holding onto. I don't think you'll ever pick them up for $10 a play set like you can Thragtusk these days. Domri, VoR, etc are not going go the way of Nightveil Specter and Desecration Demon, which are two cards I'd dump ASAP if you even can. As far as Shocks are concerned, I'd be shocked if some of them didn't dip ever so slightly immediately after rotation, and then start to go back up pretty quickly. Regardless of what anybody says, they're as staple a card as you get in Modern. I think that trading them now might be the worst possible time to do so, unless you want to reacquire them right after rotation. This seems like a lot of hassle considring most of the cost difference would be eaten up by tax if you bought them then.
Edit: This is long post with the quotes included. How do you hide them?
I may be wrong about the price of Shocklands. They may tank post-rotation and take years to recover.
But Shocklands are a staple. Steam Vents is used more in Modern than Arid Mesa & Marsh Flats
Maybe you want to acquire now, sell this summer, reacquire this fall, sell next year. But, far from a sure thing that they will go up and down enough over the rest of this year to make up for the cost of purchase and sale.
there's a big difference between dipping at rotation and losing value overall at rotation. Almost everything dips because there are people who just play standard and will increase the available volume. The real question is what things are going to stay as a big deal. The only real corrections I have to the list above are as follows:
Drop:
Archangel of Thune
even if she's gaining some traction in modern, there's not enough to hold the price. While she may see some play it just isn't enough for a $20 price tag.
Keep:
Mutavault
This card will always be in high demand. It's a staple for every format all the way to vintage.
Chandra, Pyromaster
She plays in legacy and modern and isn't that expensive. $13 is about right for post rotation and there's a lot of potential to regain price. For speculation I'd consider her low risk low reward. Not worth stocking up on, but you wont get burned if you hang on to a few.
Domri Rade
He's just really solid and very modern playable. I don't see him having a lot of trouble holding an $18 price tag. That said, I'd consider him slightly higher risk than Chandra, so I wouldn't go stocking up on them. Just keep a few in case you want them later.
Pick up after rotation
Boros Reckoner
Ajani, Caller of Pride
Lifebane Zombie
These aren't going to hold value, but all have some long term potential. I'd definitely consider picking them up on the cheap after rotation, but only if the price is right.
All bets are off:
Deathrite Shaman - I have no clue what he's going to do. He's amazing, but banned in modern which makes it hard to hold a price tag.
If you hate the deck, I'm probably playing it!
Shocks and fetches, likes peas and carrots. When they reprint fetches, and in theoretically greater numbers than shocks, then shocks will become the scarce part of the equation and prices will rise on those. It's the ebb and flow of Magic!
I do think short term people are going to feel burnt on the shocks, but give it time.
I have to say that I disagree with most of this. You're right about AoT, but mutavault is going to absolutely tank. It really only sees play in a handful of unpopular modern decks and only one unpopular legacy deck. Its demand right now is almost exclusiely due to standard since the majority of decks play 3-4 of them. Right now it's essentially at the same price it was before it was reprinted, and I see no reason for why a massive increase in supply from reprinting won't affect its price post rotation. I expect these to be around ten dollars at best. Also, Chandra is a fringe card at best in eternal formats, so I don't expect her to be more than 7-8 dollars, and probably less. Calling Domri very modern playable is far too charitable. Again, Domri only really sees play in a very small subset of decks and the demand for the card is driven almost exclusively by standard. Expect to see her go to 10-15 post rotation and not climb much for a while. And why pick up reckoner? I've never seen that card in a single eternal list. Ajani is just as bad, and lifebane is only marginally better. There are simply far better bets out there than these three. Shaman on the other hand is one of the few very solid bets because it's a legacy all star. If you think being banned in modern makes his price tag untenable, then might I refer you to stoneforge mystic, which was printed as a 2 of in an event deck no less.
Careful with this comparison. Stoneforge mystic came from a middle-of-the-block small set that wasn't well received and consequently, not opened as much. DRS was in a set that saw quite the explosion of the mtg playerbase as well as being the first in a well received large set. Sure you could factor in the event deck but that still wouldn't inject enough supply into the market.
Fair. I don't mean to say that it's a 1:1 comparison, but I think the two are reasonably similar, especially since deathrite is played in more decks (at least to the best of my knowledge). The real point is that he's a legacy all star and should do quite fine in the coming years.